One of the big pushes from Romney surrogates in Michigan is that due to sites like Daily Kos and a Santorum robocall, that 100-120,000 democrats voted in the Michigan primary to create mischief like the case with McCain in 2000. The source that is used is exit polling from CNN. I do not begrudge the surrogates for using exit polling as a source. On a lot of things, it is good. I think the polling was close with a lot of factors. That aspect I am doubting. I also highly suspect that it is being used as quasi-justification for awarding that extra delegate to Romney after the fact.
Even if the 100,000 democrat crossover is true, I don't have a lot of sympathy for it. This year. The reason being is that the party chose an open, or a closed in name only primary with same day choice of ballot. There's no party registration in Michigan either. I've long argued against an open primary when there is no contest on the other side. It only works when there is a competitive race on both sides. Presidential primaries are much different than August counterparts when both sides usually (although not always) have contests of their own.
So why don't I think 60,000 votes out of the 377,000 cast for Santorum came from democrats? Actual election returns. If you look at Michigan maps, especially 2004, you'll see how many counties votes for democrats and how many voted for republicans, along with which ones. A lot of the democrats in Michigan are concentrated in a few areas. This can be seen with the congressional districts. Most of the democrat districts, especially under the new allocation, are 60% or more democrat. All of those districts except the 13th district, votes for Romney, not Santorum. Most of the Republican held districts voted for Santorum.
GOP held Districts:
CD 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 - Santorum
CD 8, 11 - Romney
Dem districts:
CD 5, 9, 12, 14 - Romney
CD 13 - Santorum
That alone doesn't tell the whole story. There are pockets of democrats in the republican districts and pockets of republicans in the democrat districts, but it is not hard to find samples in democrat areas. One thing is clear, most of Santorum's votes were from Republicans. Most of Romney's votes were also from Republicans. Democrats don't win Livingston County in primaries. Democrats don't win Ottawa County in primaries.
I'll start with Pontiac and Auburn Hills. Why? Pontiac is a democrat stronghold in Oakland County. It's 80% democrat every election. It also was ground zero for an open state rep election and charter issue as well, so there is a reason for the democrats to vote there besides mischief. Here's the results for that state rep district, strictly in Pontiac itself, followed by Auburn Hills, a democrat leaning area, but not nearly on the same scale. Republicans often get 45% of the vote there, although McCain bombed and Obama broke 60% there.
Pontiac:
Tim Greimel (D) - 88.10% - 5,746
Bob Gray (R) - 11.90% - 776
Auburn Hills:
Bob Gray (R) - 50.53% - 1,338
Tim Greimel (D) - 49.47% - 1,310
Gray overperformed in Auburn Hills, probably due to the presidential primary. Here's the primary results in both areas there.
Auburn Hills: (population about 21,500)
Romney - 743 - 40.23%
Santorum - 639 - 34.88%
Paul - 279 - 15.23%
Newt - 117 - 6.39%
Obama - 782 - 93.65%
Dem Uncommitted - 53 - 6.35%
Pontiac: (Population about 59,000)
Santorum - 575 - 41.01%
Romney - 364 - 25.96%
Paul - 317 - 22.61%
Newt - 92 - 6.56%
Obama - 4881 - 97.72%
Dem Uncommitted - 114 - 2.28%
Most dems stayed home in their primary, even with just Obama there with "uncommitted". About 15-20% of Pontiac often votes Republican and about 45% of Auburn Hills often votes Republican. The Republicans in Pontiac are more likely working class social conservatives and small business owners. Those in Auburn Hills tend to vary. Auto executives are there, and it is also Tom McMillan's old stomping grounds before he went to the Rochester area. Both Romney and Santorum received more votes in Auburn Hills than Pontiac. Ron Paul was another story.
Here's one of the most Republican areas of Oakland County. Brandon Township. I'm going to follow that with nearby Oakland Township. They are both republican strongholds in Oakland County. There were not a lot of crossovers here. Both of these areas are consistently over 60% Republican areas.
Brandon Twp:
Santorum - 802
Romney - 775
Paul - 275
Obama - 135
D Uncommitted - 22
Oakland Twp
Romney - 1736
Santorum - 870
Paul - 271
Obama - 188
D Uncommitted - 17
Both of those are North Oakland Republican strongholds. The areas there are both republican areas voting for different republican candidates. One's a little more rural than the other, but neither are Bloomfield Hills where there is more of a homer factor.
Macomb County results varies some as well. The strongholds there are less like Pontiac and are whiter, with some republican pockets, and a lot of union independents. There wasn't a real pattern one way or the other.
Warren (about 60% dem):
Romney 4229, Santorum 4074, Paul 1337, Obama 3066, D uncommitted 638
Roseville's percentages were about the same as Warrens
Washington Twp (GOP Stronhold)
Romney 1932, Santorum 1347, Paul 355, Obama 376. D uncommitted 66
Utica (50/50)
Santorum 217, Romney 213, Paul 77, Obama 89, D uncommitted 28
Ray Twp (GOP Stronghold)
Santorum 261, Romney 250, Paul 74. Obama 53, D uncommitted 11
Overall Santorum won these areas:
GOP - Armada, Memphis, Ray, Richmond City and Twp
Dem - Center Line, Eastpointe,
Swing - Lenox, Utica
Santorum didn't win Roseville, Warren, or Mt Clemens which are democrat, nor Republican areas like Washington Twp, Shelby Twp, or Macomb Twp.
Obama had the most votes in Center Line, Eastpointe, Roseville, all narrowly.
Romney actually beat him in Mt Clemens. Both Santorum and Romney beat him in Warren. I think both candidates had their share of crossovers in these parts of Macomb County. Social liberals more to Romney and Social conservatives more to Santorum. I certainly didn't see a big push though one way or another, despite dem consultant Joe DiSano's advocacy of mischief.
Looking at another democrat stronghold. Washtenaw County.
Ann Arbor had less than 10% turnout outside of the 2nd Ward which is more republican than most of the city. That is a high money area, and went for Romney. The rest of Ann Arbor was mixed across the board, but hardly enough to manner. Some went to Santorum, some Romney, some Paul. Some of those were probably crossovers, but at less than 10% turnout, they could just as easily been those few republicans in the city.
Ypsi went narrowly for Santorum, but Obama had more votes there. The "rural" Ann Arbor Township precinct went for Santorum. That's also the Dominos Farms location. Whitmore Lake area went for Santorum. Augusta Twp (south of Ypsi) did as well. Probably not crossovers. Saline went for Romney. Probably not crossovers there either. These areas are matching about what I'd suspect.
I've look at different election areas across the state. I'm noting really out of the ordinary with vote patterns. 100,000 votes or even 65,000 in crossovers is very significant. If someone can point out where they would come from, I'd appreciate it. I don't see it. Not with Bay County and Saginaw County going for Romney, and if I was going to expect crossovers, it would be there.
I may be wrong and missing the forest for the trees here, but I don't see it. Exit polls are usually close, but not 100% in all aspects, and sometimes that is due to people lying. Voting results are what tell the truth.
Showing posts with label Rick Santorum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rick Santorum. Show all posts
Monday, March 05, 2012
Thursday, March 01, 2012
Absotute Bullshit from the credentials committee
Flat out. This is legalized cheating. This is something that Richard Daley or Boss Tweed would pull. He's smiling from his grave. ACORN's cheering too.
From The Detroit Free Press
This is the biggest example of why there's animosity between tea party groups and some committees within state party. If Santorum won the statewide popular vote, would you change the delegates after the fact? We all know the answer to that. Stick with the rules you made before the election. This is going to set off a firestorm among the grassroots, and also have repercussions in other states.
How is this going to factor down south (if they do the same for Santorum) or with states on Super Tuesday? Not very well. It will again feed into the perception (and reality here) that the elites are pushing Mitt Romney on us no matter what. It's bullshit. State committee as a whole needs to reverse this decision for their credibility, and stick with the original results. Procedures are important, and it's bad precedent, reminding me of a couple of convention votes (and cheating) from the old days before Saul Anuzis implements actual voting machines in voting. By this lame attempt to save face with a Romney "win" in Michigan, the credentials committee is getting egg on the entire state party, reflecting back on all members of party leadership down to district and county level. It's not worth one delegate.
This bullshit needs to be reversed ASAP. Kudos to Mike Cox and Eric Doster (election law attorney) for voting against this.
From The Detroit Free Press
The Mitt Romney-Rick Santorum Michigan primary results just got a little more contentious.
Michigan’s two at-large delegates to the Republican National convention will be awarded to Michigan native Mitt Romney, following a vote last night by the state party’s credentials’ committee.
The vote came despite the party’s rules that the two at-large delegates are supposed to be awarded on a proportional basis based on the statewide popular vote. Romney won the statewide vote by a 41% to 38% margin over former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
The rest of the state’s delegates will be split evenly between Romney and Santorum because each won seven congressional districts across the state.
This is the biggest example of why there's animosity between tea party groups and some committees within state party. If Santorum won the statewide popular vote, would you change the delegates after the fact? We all know the answer to that. Stick with the rules you made before the election. This is going to set off a firestorm among the grassroots, and also have repercussions in other states.
How is this going to factor down south (if they do the same for Santorum) or with states on Super Tuesday? Not very well. It will again feed into the perception (and reality here) that the elites are pushing Mitt Romney on us no matter what. It's bullshit. State committee as a whole needs to reverse this decision for their credibility, and stick with the original results. Procedures are important, and it's bad precedent, reminding me of a couple of convention votes (and cheating) from the old days before Saul Anuzis implements actual voting machines in voting. By this lame attempt to save face with a Romney "win" in Michigan, the credentials committee is getting egg on the entire state party, reflecting back on all members of party leadership down to district and county level. It's not worth one delegate.
This bullshit needs to be reversed ASAP. Kudos to Mike Cox and Eric Doster (election law attorney) for voting against this.
Post election Michigan analysis - Romney v Santorum
There's a lot of spin going on about this election. Santorum's claiming he won on election day. I think he's right. Pundits are claiming that Santorum collapsed from a 15 point lead on the last day. I think those are largely wrong. He never had a 15 pt lead here. There's also a lot of pissing and moaning about crossover Democrats (around 10% or so) and exit polls having Romney "Winning" republican voters.
As for crossovers, they may have mattered in the 13th district, but that's about it. ALL of the other major democrat districts went for Romney. 5th (narrowly - and Santorum won the Republican county), 9th (Levin), 12th (Dingell), 14th (Clarke/Peters). Romney won the 8th, 10th, and 11th held by Republicans, but the rest went for Santorum. Romney won the vote in Bay and Saginaw Counties. It's Tuscola that nearly cost him in the 5th.
Apparently, the at large was supposed to be split, but state party wants to change the rules for Romney so there isn't a tie here. (eyeroll). If Jason Gillman's right, This is the type of bullshit that pisses people off. It's the same reason I have absolutely no sympathy whatsoever about Santorum courting Reagan Democrats, or getting crossover votes. Romney's supporters chose this system. They wanted the open or closed in name only primary. They wanted it because they were worried about a Pawlenty or someone else upsetting their favorite candidate and thought that Romney would ironically appeal to independents and democrats. I pushed for caucus when this was decided, and I support that now. I don't think democrats should vote in Republican primaries. However, I'm not going to get pissed off when it happens when it is preventable and the powers that be choose not to prevent it. T.S. Don't change things after the fact because your boy didn't get the win. This is why people get mad at party leadership. Santorum did best in the most republican counties, with the exception of Livingston, Atrim, and Emmet. Santorum won Ottawa, Allegan, Missaukee, Hillsdale, Barry, Branch, St Joe, Sanilac, Lapeer, Osceola, Wexford, and Kent. That ain't due to democrats.
The biggest lesson from last Tuesday was this. The election wasn't Tuesday. It was from 30 days before Tuesday that ended Tuesday. I also made one major miscalculation in my predictions. I knew seniors would go for Romney as did the absentees. The absentee vote was key. I don't know the exact percentages, and won't because some counties combine absentee votes with normal precinct votes in their reporting. Others don't. Here are some samples.
Macomb County:
Romney Election Day 23,188
Romney AV 14,650
Total: 37,838
Santorum Election Day 22,999
Santorum AV 7,219
Total: 30,218
Total AV's - 21,869 (32.13% of the vote between the two of them not counting others)
That was enough to flip the 10th District to Romney. Absentees probably flipped the 5th as well although I can't get good AV reports there.
Romney won Kalamazoo County 9671-9008. It was absentees that once again made the difference there. Even in areas Santorum won, he lost absentees. Some areas in K-zoo combined absentees. Some didn't. The REPORTED AS ABSENTEE vote went 2479-1052 for Romney. That alone was 19% of the vote and does not include about 1/2 of the municipalities so the closer AV number between the two of them was probably 25-30% Take away just the reported as absentee votes, and Santorum won K-zoo County 7956-7192.
Unfortunately, I can find good AV precinct data in interior Northern MI counties that voted for Romney narrowly, but from what I have seen so far, the AV's are at least 25% of the vote, and might be closer to 30% statewide. If that is the case, then the polling samples were way off earlier. The polls had 17% absentee estimates. Why the discrepancies?
Exit polls had Santorum winning those ages 30-64, Romney winning Seniors, and Ron Paul winning the 20-somethings. There isn't a lot of surprises. Santorum did best with those "most conservative" and those who strongly emphasized the life issue. It was the pro-life vote. That's in-line with most polling up through the elections. The senior sample thought should be higher. This is speculation, but the pollsters probably missed the snowbirds. A lot of the voters were probably in Florida. Florida already had their primary and Romney won. A lot of the snowbirds probably made an early decision and sent it in. Pollsters didn't reach them because they wern't home or at least the home where they are likely registered. Why would they be registered in Michigan? Property tax homestead exemptions. The millage rates are much lower with homesteads than a vacation home here.
Absentees are often 30%+ in a general election. Anyone running campaigns in Michigan need to remember that and start early. Romney did and won because of that. Santorum became a 'legitimate candidate' in Michigan on February 7th (hat trick win), after the voting already started in Michigan. His whole Michigan campaign was in three weeks. It's amazing he even competed here with two strikes against him (money and early voting).
Long story short. Don't forget the absentees.
As for crossovers, they may have mattered in the 13th district, but that's about it. ALL of the other major democrat districts went for Romney. 5th (narrowly - and Santorum won the Republican county), 9th (Levin), 12th (Dingell), 14th (Clarke/Peters). Romney won the 8th, 10th, and 11th held by Republicans, but the rest went for Santorum. Romney won the vote in Bay and Saginaw Counties. It's Tuscola that nearly cost him in the 5th.
Apparently, the at large was supposed to be split, but state party wants to change the rules for Romney so there isn't a tie here. (eyeroll). If Jason Gillman's right, This is the type of bullshit that pisses people off. It's the same reason I have absolutely no sympathy whatsoever about Santorum courting Reagan Democrats, or getting crossover votes. Romney's supporters chose this system. They wanted the open or closed in name only primary. They wanted it because they were worried about a Pawlenty or someone else upsetting their favorite candidate and thought that Romney would ironically appeal to independents and democrats. I pushed for caucus when this was decided, and I support that now. I don't think democrats should vote in Republican primaries. However, I'm not going to get pissed off when it happens when it is preventable and the powers that be choose not to prevent it. T.S. Don't change things after the fact because your boy didn't get the win. This is why people get mad at party leadership. Santorum did best in the most republican counties, with the exception of Livingston, Atrim, and Emmet. Santorum won Ottawa, Allegan, Missaukee, Hillsdale, Barry, Branch, St Joe, Sanilac, Lapeer, Osceola, Wexford, and Kent. That ain't due to democrats.
The biggest lesson from last Tuesday was this. The election wasn't Tuesday. It was from 30 days before Tuesday that ended Tuesday. I also made one major miscalculation in my predictions. I knew seniors would go for Romney as did the absentees. The absentee vote was key. I don't know the exact percentages, and won't because some counties combine absentee votes with normal precinct votes in their reporting. Others don't. Here are some samples.
Macomb County:
Romney Election Day 23,188
Romney AV 14,650
Total: 37,838
Santorum Election Day 22,999
Santorum AV 7,219
Total: 30,218
Total AV's - 21,869 (32.13% of the vote between the two of them not counting others)
That was enough to flip the 10th District to Romney. Absentees probably flipped the 5th as well although I can't get good AV reports there.
Romney won Kalamazoo County 9671-9008. It was absentees that once again made the difference there. Even in areas Santorum won, he lost absentees. Some areas in K-zoo combined absentees. Some didn't. The REPORTED AS ABSENTEE vote went 2479-1052 for Romney. That alone was 19% of the vote and does not include about 1/2 of the municipalities so the closer AV number between the two of them was probably 25-30% Take away just the reported as absentee votes, and Santorum won K-zoo County 7956-7192.
Unfortunately, I can find good AV precinct data in interior Northern MI counties that voted for Romney narrowly, but from what I have seen so far, the AV's are at least 25% of the vote, and might be closer to 30% statewide. If that is the case, then the polling samples were way off earlier. The polls had 17% absentee estimates. Why the discrepancies?
Exit polls had Santorum winning those ages 30-64, Romney winning Seniors, and Ron Paul winning the 20-somethings. There isn't a lot of surprises. Santorum did best with those "most conservative" and those who strongly emphasized the life issue. It was the pro-life vote. That's in-line with most polling up through the elections. The senior sample thought should be higher. This is speculation, but the pollsters probably missed the snowbirds. A lot of the voters were probably in Florida. Florida already had their primary and Romney won. A lot of the snowbirds probably made an early decision and sent it in. Pollsters didn't reach them because they wern't home or at least the home where they are likely registered. Why would they be registered in Michigan? Property tax homestead exemptions. The millage rates are much lower with homesteads than a vacation home here.
Absentees are often 30%+ in a general election. Anyone running campaigns in Michigan need to remember that and start early. Romney did and won because of that. Santorum became a 'legitimate candidate' in Michigan on February 7th (hat trick win), after the voting already started in Michigan. His whole Michigan campaign was in three weeks. It's amazing he even competed here with two strikes against him (money and early voting).
Long story short. Don't forget the absentees.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Unofficial Michigan results by congressional district - Romney 16, Santorum 14
3rd Update 3-1 - Changing the rules after the fact gives Romney the extra delegate.
2nd Update 2-29 - Apparently the at large delegates will be split 1-1 because they were close. That means Romney and Santorum actually tied in Michigan.
Update 2-29 - According to MIRS, Santorum won 1-4, 6, 7, 13. Romney won 5, 8-12, 14.
I'd still like to see the Tuscola numbers. Surprised at 13 from the absentee numbers I saw, but knew it was close.
MIRS numbers:
Congressional District Vote Breakdown (according to the Michigan Republican Party).
1st: Romney, 32,252. Santorum*, 32,325.
2nd: Romney, 29,912. Santorum*, 39,900.
3rd: Romney, 31,999. Santorum*, 33,491.
4th: Romney, 27,117. Santorum*, 29,528.
5th: Romney* 21,691. Santorum, 20,837.
6th: Romney, 26,738. Santorum*, 31,126.
7th: Romney, 28,925. Santorum*, 30,133.
8th: Romney*, 32,930. Santorum, 25,234.
9th: Romney* 24,060. Santorum, 17,221.
10th: Romney*, 31,319. Santorum, 29,278.
11th: Romney*, 41,733. Santorum, 24,577.
12th: Romney*, 19,623. Santorum, 17,675.
13th: Romney, 7,946. Santorum* 9,481.
14th: Romney*, 18,157. Santorum, 10,844
-------------------------------
First off, ignore the Sec of State's website for delegates. It's supposed to be by the NEW districts, and not the old districts. CNN did a great job with the county map.
I ran some numbers. The obvious districts ones I'm going to just call. Districts 2 and 6 went for Santorum just based on looking. Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14 went for Romney. I can't get a read on the 13th, so I'm going to assume it's Romney's unless I find results that say otherwise due to the 10,000 vote Romney spread in Wayne County. (Updated - Wayne County Precinct results are in. MIRS called it for Santorum.
District 1:
Santorum by about 590. Mason County wasn't included, but Santorum won it so I'll call it for Santorum.
District 3:
Santorum by about 1669
District 4:
Santorum by about 1982 (Saginaw's clerk numbers for district splitting)
District 5:
Depends on Tuscola County. Too close to call. ALL of Tuscola gives Santorum a 968 vote edge. With it, Santorum wins by 511. Without it Romney leads by 457. I can't call it. MIRS called it for Romney.
District 7:
I have Santorum up 930 not factoring in Scio Township. 1/2 of Scio Township is in the 7th, and it's the less democrat part, relatively speaking (Dexter side). Romney took the Washtenaw portion of the 7th by 865, not counting Scio. It's close, but I'm going to call the 7th for Santorum. - (Scio is in. Even with all of Scio included, Santorum wins by about 300-400)
District 13:
MIRS called it for Santorum. Crossovers may have won this one since I think Romney won (barely) the more republican areas due to absentee votes.
So right now as it stands:
Romney wins overall, CD 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14. Total of 16
Santorum wins CD 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 13. Total of 14.
--------------
What did I learn from this? Romney didn't win this election today. He won this election largely 30 days ago. Santorum may actually have won "today." The election wasn't only today though. Absentee voters skewed the polls off slightly, and turned what I expected to be 1% either way into an approximate 3% victory. Seniors according to an exit poll voted for Romney by 16%. Absentee voting went higher if the patterns I saw in Kent, Washtenaw, and Macomb Counties went statewide. I had a bad feeling when I saw a low turnout today at the polls, combined with heavy absentees for Romney. Romney polled well with seniors which concerned me because in elections, they often run the show and bring their pick the victory. That's not to any party's advantage in Michigan despite Obama's bad polling among seniors. Seniors would also be the folks who remember George Romney as governor where I'd only know the name from political history.
The other thing I thought was a mistake by both candidates was not visiting Livingston County. This is the 3rd most republican county by percentage in the state, and it was ignored. Romney won it, which isn't surprising because he DID visit Milford next door and has at least been here before. Santorum had a chance to introduce himself here and didn't do so. Many voters here relied on the news when defining Santorum. Many also did with Romney, but a lot of folks have met him or met someone who has met him, especially Oakland transplants. Advantage Romney.
This puts Romney in a good position for Super Tuesday, but nothing's set in stone yet. There's still a primary. Personally at this point, I'd like to see a brokered convention. I never thought I'd say that. I don't expect it to happen, but I think we'd get a better overall GENERAL election candidate from a convention than what we are saddled with today. Romney's organization saved his ass here today. It's his biggest campaign strength. The problem is that there's only so much that can be done with this flawed a candidate. Santorum didn't become a player until Iowa and then those three wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri (I think). He then did what he did in Michigan in only a month while taking a scorched earth blast from Romney. Will he recover or not? I don't know. I don't know if Newt's still in the game either.
After today, I'm rooting for the brokered convention. That's my new endorsement, long shot as it may be. Until the final decision is made, I'll be happy to go back to covering state level and local level stuff.
2nd Update 2-29 - Apparently the at large delegates will be split 1-1 because they were close. That means Romney and Santorum actually tied in Michigan.
Update 2-29 - According to MIRS, Santorum won 1-4, 6, 7, 13. Romney won 5, 8-12, 14.
I'd still like to see the Tuscola numbers. Surprised at 13 from the absentee numbers I saw, but knew it was close.
MIRS numbers:
Congressional District Vote Breakdown (according to the Michigan Republican Party).
1st: Romney, 32,252. Santorum*, 32,325.
2nd: Romney, 29,912. Santorum*, 39,900.
3rd: Romney, 31,999. Santorum*, 33,491.
4th: Romney, 27,117. Santorum*, 29,528.
5th: Romney* 21,691. Santorum, 20,837.
6th: Romney, 26,738. Santorum*, 31,126.
7th: Romney, 28,925. Santorum*, 30,133.
8th: Romney*, 32,930. Santorum, 25,234.
9th: Romney* 24,060. Santorum, 17,221.
10th: Romney*, 31,319. Santorum, 29,278.
11th: Romney*, 41,733. Santorum, 24,577.
12th: Romney*, 19,623. Santorum, 17,675.
13th: Romney, 7,946. Santorum* 9,481.
14th: Romney*, 18,157. Santorum, 10,844
-------------------------------
First off, ignore the Sec of State's website for delegates. It's supposed to be by the NEW districts, and not the old districts. CNN did a great job with the county map.
I ran some numbers. The obvious districts ones I'm going to just call. Districts 2 and 6 went for Santorum just based on looking. Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14 went for Romney. I can't get a read on the 13th, so I'm going to assume it's Romney's unless I find results that say otherwise due to the 10,000 vote Romney spread in Wayne County. (Updated - Wayne County Precinct results are in. MIRS called it for Santorum.
District 1:
Santorum by about 590. Mason County wasn't included, but Santorum won it so I'll call it for Santorum.
District 3:
Santorum by about 1669
District 4:
Santorum by about 1982 (Saginaw's clerk numbers for district splitting)
District 5:
Depends on Tuscola County. Too close to call. ALL of Tuscola gives Santorum a 968 vote edge. With it, Santorum wins by 511. Without it Romney leads by 457. I can't call it. MIRS called it for Romney.
District 7:
I have Santorum up 930 not factoring in Scio Township. 1/2 of Scio Township is in the 7th, and it's the less democrat part, relatively speaking (Dexter side). Romney took the Washtenaw portion of the 7th by 865, not counting Scio. It's close, but I'm going to call the 7th for Santorum. - (Scio is in. Even with all of Scio included, Santorum wins by about 300-400)
District 13:
MIRS called it for Santorum. Crossovers may have won this one since I think Romney won (barely) the more republican areas due to absentee votes.
So right now as it stands:
Romney wins overall, CD 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14. Total of 16
Santorum wins CD 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 13. Total of 14.
--------------
What did I learn from this? Romney didn't win this election today. He won this election largely 30 days ago. Santorum may actually have won "today." The election wasn't only today though. Absentee voters skewed the polls off slightly, and turned what I expected to be 1% either way into an approximate 3% victory. Seniors according to an exit poll voted for Romney by 16%. Absentee voting went higher if the patterns I saw in Kent, Washtenaw, and Macomb Counties went statewide. I had a bad feeling when I saw a low turnout today at the polls, combined with heavy absentees for Romney. Romney polled well with seniors which concerned me because in elections, they often run the show and bring their pick the victory. That's not to any party's advantage in Michigan despite Obama's bad polling among seniors. Seniors would also be the folks who remember George Romney as governor where I'd only know the name from political history.
The other thing I thought was a mistake by both candidates was not visiting Livingston County. This is the 3rd most republican county by percentage in the state, and it was ignored. Romney won it, which isn't surprising because he DID visit Milford next door and has at least been here before. Santorum had a chance to introduce himself here and didn't do so. Many voters here relied on the news when defining Santorum. Many also did with Romney, but a lot of folks have met him or met someone who has met him, especially Oakland transplants. Advantage Romney.
This puts Romney in a good position for Super Tuesday, but nothing's set in stone yet. There's still a primary. Personally at this point, I'd like to see a brokered convention. I never thought I'd say that. I don't expect it to happen, but I think we'd get a better overall GENERAL election candidate from a convention than what we are saddled with today. Romney's organization saved his ass here today. It's his biggest campaign strength. The problem is that there's only so much that can be done with this flawed a candidate. Santorum didn't become a player until Iowa and then those three wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri (I think). He then did what he did in Michigan in only a month while taking a scorched earth blast from Romney. Will he recover or not? I don't know. I don't know if Newt's still in the game either.
After today, I'm rooting for the brokered convention. That's my new endorsement, long shot as it may be. Until the final decision is made, I'll be happy to go back to covering state level and local level stuff.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Poll Update - 2nd PPP poll less of an outlier
Last Thursday, I had a post about the delegate process and listed polls and congressional districts.
I never thought Santorum was up 15 over Romney in Michigan. Most of the polls have it 4-10 pts. I think 4 is accurate, right now as things stand today. Will it change in a week? Possibly.
What I like about the PPP polls is that delegates in Michigan are chosen by Congressional District. All the polls are statewide only or listed by some regions. PPP used phone area codes. While that's not a perfect assessment of the polling by district, it does show a rough estimate.
Here's the latest from PPP
Area Code:
231 - 44-22 Santorum - West/NW MI. Muskegon to Traverse City
248 - 36-32 Romney - Oakland County
269 - 48-35 Santorum - Hastings, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe
313 - 43-22-21 - Romney, Paul, Santorum. Big shift in Wayne County - Is this the Grosse Pointes or Redford/Westland? Paul vote is probably Dearborn.
517 - 40-33 Santorum - Big shift to Santorum. Lansing area, Western Livingston County, Hillsdale, Jackson.
586 - tied at 38. Macomb County.
616 - 37-35 Santorum - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - 40-29 Romney - Big shift to Romney. Ann Arbor, Ypsi, Southernmost Livingston County, Monroe. I'm not surprised here with Ann Arbor.
810 - 46-19-18 Santorum-Paul-Romney. Eastern Livingston, Flint area, Lapeer, Port Huron.
906 - 29-27-21 - Santorum-Romney-Paul - The UP. Small sample of numbers fluctuated here.
989 - 39-29 Santorum-Romney - From Saginaw to Northeastern Michigan.
Based on this:
Santorum takes - CD 1, CD 2, maybe 3, CD 4, CD 5, CD 6, CD 7, CD 10 (thanks to thumb),
Romney takes - CD 9, 11, probably 12, 14.
Tossup - My own 8th District and the 13th
These are the NEW districts that count, not the old one's. That could help or hurt Romney in a big way since the Bloomfield/Birmingham areas - his home base - are carved up into several districts.
The 9th has Southfield Township and Bloomfield Township.
The 11th has part of West Bloomfield, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham, as well as Troy.
The 14th has most of West Bloomfield.
Romney in all polls leads Oakland County. The question is where in Oakland. Oakland County is a big place, and doesn't think uniformly throughout the county.
Also the big shift his way in 734 and 313. Where was the 313 samples? I'm guessing largly Grosse Pointe, in the 14th district. Does Redford and Westland in the 13th lean the same way? I'll be somewhat surprised, but it's possible. The 734 numbers here reflect my more original thoughts. I don't see Ann Arbor or suburbs warming up to Santorum. I think Romney would also play well in Plymouth (11th District).
I see this going likely 8-4 Santorum with two up for grabs in the race for Congressional districts. If I got pushed into the corner, I'd guess Romney with the 8th and Santorum the 13th, both narrowly making it 9-5. I wouldn't be shocked at 8-6 or 10-4.
That's also if things don't change. A late surprise attack wouldn't shock me in the slightest.
I never thought Santorum was up 15 over Romney in Michigan. Most of the polls have it 4-10 pts. I think 4 is accurate, right now as things stand today. Will it change in a week? Possibly.
What I like about the PPP polls is that delegates in Michigan are chosen by Congressional District. All the polls are statewide only or listed by some regions. PPP used phone area codes. While that's not a perfect assessment of the polling by district, it does show a rough estimate.
Here's the latest from PPP
Area Code:
231 - 44-22 Santorum - West/NW MI. Muskegon to Traverse City
248 - 36-32 Romney - Oakland County
269 - 48-35 Santorum - Hastings, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe
313 - 43-22-21 - Romney, Paul, Santorum. Big shift in Wayne County - Is this the Grosse Pointes or Redford/Westland? Paul vote is probably Dearborn.
517 - 40-33 Santorum - Big shift to Santorum. Lansing area, Western Livingston County, Hillsdale, Jackson.
586 - tied at 38. Macomb County.
616 - 37-35 Santorum - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - 40-29 Romney - Big shift to Romney. Ann Arbor, Ypsi, Southernmost Livingston County, Monroe. I'm not surprised here with Ann Arbor.
810 - 46-19-18 Santorum-Paul-Romney. Eastern Livingston, Flint area, Lapeer, Port Huron.
906 - 29-27-21 - Santorum-Romney-Paul - The UP. Small sample of numbers fluctuated here.
989 - 39-29 Santorum-Romney - From Saginaw to Northeastern Michigan.
Based on this:
Santorum takes - CD 1, CD 2, maybe 3, CD 4, CD 5, CD 6, CD 7, CD 10 (thanks to thumb),
Romney takes - CD 9, 11, probably 12, 14.
Tossup - My own 8th District and the 13th
These are the NEW districts that count, not the old one's. That could help or hurt Romney in a big way since the Bloomfield/Birmingham areas - his home base - are carved up into several districts.
The 9th has Southfield Township and Bloomfield Township.
The 11th has part of West Bloomfield, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham, as well as Troy.
The 14th has most of West Bloomfield.
Romney in all polls leads Oakland County. The question is where in Oakland. Oakland County is a big place, and doesn't think uniformly throughout the county.
Also the big shift his way in 734 and 313. Where was the 313 samples? I'm guessing largly Grosse Pointe, in the 14th district. Does Redford and Westland in the 13th lean the same way? I'll be somewhat surprised, but it's possible. The 734 numbers here reflect my more original thoughts. I don't see Ann Arbor or suburbs warming up to Santorum. I think Romney would also play well in Plymouth (11th District).
I see this going likely 8-4 Santorum with two up for grabs in the race for Congressional districts. If I got pushed into the corner, I'd guess Romney with the 8th and Santorum the 13th, both narrowly making it 9-5. I wouldn't be shocked at 8-6 or 10-4.
That's also if things don't change. A late surprise attack wouldn't shock me in the slightest.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Michigan's Delegate Process, Preview of race per Congressional District
There's a lot being said about Santorum taking the lead to some degree in most opinion polls. If Santorum wins Michigan, it will be gigantic from a PR, momentum, and fundraising standpoint. From an actual delegate standpoint, it's more complicated than that.
Michigan loses 50% (30) of the delegates for having the election before Super Tuesday. Part of the reason Michigan moved their primary up is because State Party wanted a primary and not a convention. By law in Michigan, elections are held only four days in a year (in response to MEA and school elections)
You can lose the state, and take more of the districts. From what I can find, delegates are apportioned in this fashion.
Two delegates selected at large proportional based on 15% of the vote. I don't know how that would work with two delegates.
Two delegates each, winner take all per NEW 2012 congressional district. These are the new districts, not the current districts. A map of the new districts are here.
Quick rundowns:
Mitchell Poll - Santorum up 17% in Grand Rapids Media Market, 9% in Non Detroit Media Market, 7% Detroit Media Market.
Detroit News poll - Comment - "Oakland County is an island for him"
MRG Poll - Santorum up 3 over Romney in Lansing media market, Santorum up 45 in the UP, Santorum up 18 in Traverse City Market, 16 in Grand Rapids Market, four in Detroit and Flint media markets. Romney up 8 in Oakland County. Tied in Macomb.
PPP Poll by Area Code:
231 - Santorum up 20. 231 is West and Northwest Michigan from around Muskegon north to Petoskey.
248 - Romney up 14. 248 is Oakland County.
269 - Santorum up 14 over Newt. West and Southwest Michigan from around Hastings to Battle Creek to Kalamazoo to St Joe to New Buffalo.
313 - Santorum up 10. 313 is part of Wayne County. Detroit, Redford, Grosse Pointes, Dearborn.
517 - Paul up 3 over Santorum and Romney. 517 is largely Lansing area, Jackson, Western Livingston County, and Hillsdale.
586 - Santorum up 15 over Newt. (Strongly contradicts PPP) 586 is Macomb County.
616 - Santorum up 13. Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia.
734 - Santorum up 22. Ann Arbor, Monroe, Ypsi, part of Wayne County (Livonia), small part of Southern Livingston County.
810 - Santorum up 13. Brighton, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron.
906 - Santorum up 22 over Newt. That is the UP.
989 - Santorum up 20. Saginaw, Bay City. Northern Lower Michigan.
M1-01 - North Michigan. As of now, it looks like Santorum's best district. 906, some 989, and some 231 area codes. It's a very blue collar area outside of parts of the Lake Michigan Coastline. The UP is conservative, but more than anything else despises phonies. McCain won most of this area in 2008. Advantage Santorum
M1-02 - West Michigan Coast, from Holland to Ludington. 616 and 231. Ottawa County is the most republican county in the state. It's going to drive this district. Muskegon County could factor in with crossovers and independents, along with the base. The rest of the district is rural populist. The life issue is BIG here. Advantage Santorum.
MI-03 - Most of Kent County, Ionia and Barry Counties, Calhoun County. 616, 231, 269. Ionia and Barry are rural populist. Grand Rapids suburbs will drive the turnout here. Calhoun County could impact things. Advantage Santorum.
MI-04 - Rural North and Central Michigan. From Lansing's Northern border up to Cadillac and Roscommon. From Big Rapids to the Saginaw suburbs. Mostly 989, maybe some 231. Santorum should do well here.
MI-05 - This is a blue district, but just as important for delegates. Mostly 810 and 989. Genesee County, Western Tuscola County (important for GOP), Saginaw area, all of Bay County, Arenac County and Iosco County. White union crossovers and independents may be the key here in the Flint suburbs, some Saginaw suburbs, and especially Bay County and the Standish/Tawas area. There's a small GOP base area near Fenton (Frankenmuth's now in the 4th).
MI-06 - SW Michigan. 269 area code. The new MI-06 now has ALL of Allegan County which is just as republican as Ottawa County (Southern Allegan is competitive reducing the county percentage). All of the counties have significant GOP populations (Kalamazoo County is dem, but not ALL dem) to impact this district. District went big for McCain last time. Polls are showing Santorum up here, but it's tough for me to call. Upton wins here too.
MI-07 - South Central and Eastern Michigan. 517 and 734. This district no longer has Calhoun County and picks up Monroe County. Monroe is quite populist and often hostile to a Romney type Republican. They usually (not 2010) like John Dingell types of democrats and Randy Richardville types of Republicans. Much of the district is populist independent conservative. Romney's best hope here is a good showing by Ron Paul.
MI-08 - 517, 810, some 734, and 248. The 8th district changed some. It keeps Ingham County and Livingston County, but adds more of Oakland while dropping Shiawassee and Clinton Counties. That MAY help Romney. The question is this. Where in Oakland County, is Romney's strength? Is he leading based on across the board strength, or is it concentrated in the Bloomfields and getting drilled in places like Clarkston. The new 8th covers "North Oakland" is a lot different than what people think of when they think of Oakland County. There isn't a lot of difference between North Oakland and Livingston County when it comes to politics, even though Livingston has a much more conservative reputation. Both of those areas are social conservative, BUT also are fiscally conservative as well. I think the 8th is up for grabs. All candidates have strengths and weaknesses for this district.
MI-9 - This is the new 9th, much like the old 12th. 248 and 586. It's now Macomb County based, while also taking in the white parts of SE Oakland County, as well as Bloomfield Township. This may have been Mitt's old home (or it could be the 11th). The question here is which poll is accurate with Macomb County. This is a blue district, but with a couple of significant GOP populations. Bloomfield Township, parts of Sterling Heights, and parts of St Clair Shoes and Clinton Townships. There's much more GOP vote here in Macomb County. If Mitt gets the GOP votes in Oakland all out and his way, he's going a chance at this. I bet he's up BIG in Bloomfield Township and Southfield Township (Bingham Farms). Edge Romney due to that.
MI-10 - 586, 810, maybe 989. This district is the home of Reagan Democrats. Northern Macomb County, and the thumb. Most of the votes here are in Macomb, but the thumb is also very important. Lapeer is a base county. St Clair is competitive. The rest of the thumb is conservative, but not necessarily Republican. I think Santorum will take the 10th.
MI-11 - 248, some 734. This district is a mix of mostly the old 11th and old 9th. Advantage Romney. It's mostly in Oakland County, along with some western Wayne County suburbs. It drops a lot of the union territory to Dingell or Conyers. This district has Troy, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham which gives Romney an advantage. Livonia's tougher to read and is a little more Reagan Democrat. Canton's very tough to read. Plymouth, Novi, and Northville areas are on paper more Romney friendly. I think the South Lyon, Highland, and Milford areas will be a little tougher for him. I'll be shocked in Romney loses here through.
MI-12 - 734, some 313. This district stretches across Southern Wayne County from Dearborn and Downriver to Ann Arbor. I was a little shocked to see Santorum win big in 734 territory according to PPP, but I think a lot of the republican vote here will be from West Dearborn and South Downriver. I think crossovers will decide this district. For whom is the question. Ann Arbor will likely cross over for Ron Paul. Downriver for Santorum (stick it to Romney).
MI-13 - 313, 248. This is a VRA district, but has a small and significant GOP base for a primary of this type. The Grosse Pointes. There's significant GOP minorities in Farmington Hills and West Bloomfield as well. I think Romney takes this district unless enough blacks cross over.
MI-14 - 313, 734. This is also a VRA district, but does into the more populist Western Wayne County suburbs. There's significant (for this district) republican minorities in Redford, Dearborn Heights, Westland, and Garden City. I think Santorum has an advantage there.
If things stand as they do today, I'd pick Santorum to win districts 1-7, 10, and 14. I'd have Romney winning 9, 11, and 13. I'd have the 8th and 12th up for grabs.
Michigan loses 50% (30) of the delegates for having the election before Super Tuesday. Part of the reason Michigan moved their primary up is because State Party wanted a primary and not a convention. By law in Michigan, elections are held only four days in a year (in response to MEA and school elections)
You can lose the state, and take more of the districts. From what I can find, delegates are apportioned in this fashion.
Two delegates selected at large proportional based on 15% of the vote. I don't know how that would work with two delegates.
Two delegates each, winner take all per NEW 2012 congressional district. These are the new districts, not the current districts. A map of the new districts are here.
Quick rundowns:
Mitchell Poll - Santorum up 17% in Grand Rapids Media Market, 9% in Non Detroit Media Market, 7% Detroit Media Market.
Detroit News poll - Comment - "Oakland County is an island for him"
MRG Poll - Santorum up 3 over Romney in Lansing media market, Santorum up 45 in the UP, Santorum up 18 in Traverse City Market, 16 in Grand Rapids Market, four in Detroit and Flint media markets. Romney up 8 in Oakland County. Tied in Macomb.
PPP Poll by Area Code:
231 - Santorum up 20. 231 is West and Northwest Michigan from around Muskegon north to Petoskey.
248 - Romney up 14. 248 is Oakland County.
269 - Santorum up 14 over Newt. West and Southwest Michigan from around Hastings to Battle Creek to Kalamazoo to St Joe to New Buffalo.
313 - Santorum up 10. 313 is part of Wayne County. Detroit, Redford, Grosse Pointes, Dearborn.
517 - Paul up 3 over Santorum and Romney. 517 is largely Lansing area, Jackson, Western Livingston County, and Hillsdale.
586 - Santorum up 15 over Newt. (Strongly contradicts PPP) 586 is Macomb County.
616 - Santorum up 13. Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia.
734 - Santorum up 22. Ann Arbor, Monroe, Ypsi, part of Wayne County (Livonia), small part of Southern Livingston County.
810 - Santorum up 13. Brighton, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron.
906 - Santorum up 22 over Newt. That is the UP.
989 - Santorum up 20. Saginaw, Bay City. Northern Lower Michigan.
M1-01 - North Michigan. As of now, it looks like Santorum's best district. 906, some 989, and some 231 area codes. It's a very blue collar area outside of parts of the Lake Michigan Coastline. The UP is conservative, but more than anything else despises phonies. McCain won most of this area in 2008. Advantage Santorum
M1-02 - West Michigan Coast, from Holland to Ludington. 616 and 231. Ottawa County is the most republican county in the state. It's going to drive this district. Muskegon County could factor in with crossovers and independents, along with the base. The rest of the district is rural populist. The life issue is BIG here. Advantage Santorum.
MI-03 - Most of Kent County, Ionia and Barry Counties, Calhoun County. 616, 231, 269. Ionia and Barry are rural populist. Grand Rapids suburbs will drive the turnout here. Calhoun County could impact things. Advantage Santorum.
MI-04 - Rural North and Central Michigan. From Lansing's Northern border up to Cadillac and Roscommon. From Big Rapids to the Saginaw suburbs. Mostly 989, maybe some 231. Santorum should do well here.
MI-05 - This is a blue district, but just as important for delegates. Mostly 810 and 989. Genesee County, Western Tuscola County (important for GOP), Saginaw area, all of Bay County, Arenac County and Iosco County. White union crossovers and independents may be the key here in the Flint suburbs, some Saginaw suburbs, and especially Bay County and the Standish/Tawas area. There's a small GOP base area near Fenton (Frankenmuth's now in the 4th).
MI-06 - SW Michigan. 269 area code. The new MI-06 now has ALL of Allegan County which is just as republican as Ottawa County (Southern Allegan is competitive reducing the county percentage). All of the counties have significant GOP populations (Kalamazoo County is dem, but not ALL dem) to impact this district. District went big for McCain last time. Polls are showing Santorum up here, but it's tough for me to call. Upton wins here too.
MI-07 - South Central and Eastern Michigan. 517 and 734. This district no longer has Calhoun County and picks up Monroe County. Monroe is quite populist and often hostile to a Romney type Republican. They usually (not 2010) like John Dingell types of democrats and Randy Richardville types of Republicans. Much of the district is populist independent conservative. Romney's best hope here is a good showing by Ron Paul.
MI-08 - 517, 810, some 734, and 248. The 8th district changed some. It keeps Ingham County and Livingston County, but adds more of Oakland while dropping Shiawassee and Clinton Counties. That MAY help Romney. The question is this. Where in Oakland County, is Romney's strength? Is he leading based on across the board strength, or is it concentrated in the Bloomfields and getting drilled in places like Clarkston. The new 8th covers "North Oakland" is a lot different than what people think of when they think of Oakland County. There isn't a lot of difference between North Oakland and Livingston County when it comes to politics, even though Livingston has a much more conservative reputation. Both of those areas are social conservative, BUT also are fiscally conservative as well. I think the 8th is up for grabs. All candidates have strengths and weaknesses for this district.
MI-9 - This is the new 9th, much like the old 12th. 248 and 586. It's now Macomb County based, while also taking in the white parts of SE Oakland County, as well as Bloomfield Township. This may have been Mitt's old home (or it could be the 11th). The question here is which poll is accurate with Macomb County. This is a blue district, but with a couple of significant GOP populations. Bloomfield Township, parts of Sterling Heights, and parts of St Clair Shoes and Clinton Townships. There's much more GOP vote here in Macomb County. If Mitt gets the GOP votes in Oakland all out and his way, he's going a chance at this. I bet he's up BIG in Bloomfield Township and Southfield Township (Bingham Farms). Edge Romney due to that.
MI-10 - 586, 810, maybe 989. This district is the home of Reagan Democrats. Northern Macomb County, and the thumb. Most of the votes here are in Macomb, but the thumb is also very important. Lapeer is a base county. St Clair is competitive. The rest of the thumb is conservative, but not necessarily Republican. I think Santorum will take the 10th.
MI-11 - 248, some 734. This district is a mix of mostly the old 11th and old 9th. Advantage Romney. It's mostly in Oakland County, along with some western Wayne County suburbs. It drops a lot of the union territory to Dingell or Conyers. This district has Troy, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham which gives Romney an advantage. Livonia's tougher to read and is a little more Reagan Democrat. Canton's very tough to read. Plymouth, Novi, and Northville areas are on paper more Romney friendly. I think the South Lyon, Highland, and Milford areas will be a little tougher for him. I'll be shocked in Romney loses here through.
MI-12 - 734, some 313. This district stretches across Southern Wayne County from Dearborn and Downriver to Ann Arbor. I was a little shocked to see Santorum win big in 734 territory according to PPP, but I think a lot of the republican vote here will be from West Dearborn and South Downriver. I think crossovers will decide this district. For whom is the question. Ann Arbor will likely cross over for Ron Paul. Downriver for Santorum (stick it to Romney).
MI-13 - 313, 248. This is a VRA district, but has a small and significant GOP base for a primary of this type. The Grosse Pointes. There's significant GOP minorities in Farmington Hills and West Bloomfield as well. I think Romney takes this district unless enough blacks cross over.
MI-14 - 313, 734. This is also a VRA district, but does into the more populist Western Wayne County suburbs. There's significant (for this district) republican minorities in Redford, Dearborn Heights, Westland, and Garden City. I think Santorum has an advantage there.
If things stand as they do today, I'd pick Santorum to win districts 1-7, 10, and 14. I'd have Romney winning 9, 11, and 13. I'd have the 8th and 12th up for grabs.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Is Santorum leading in Michigan?
The big news is that in Mitt Romney's birth state, Rick Santorum apparently took the lead in two polls. This means possibly two things. One, the polls are accurate. Two, the polls are not accurate. If they are accurate, then this is a snapshot of the electorate at this time. It does not mean that this will be the results on February 28th. At worst, this is great momentum for Santorum today. The future will be undetermined. Remember what I said about how early polls don't matter six months down the road. A lot of things change. Even in two weeks before I vote for Santorum.
Looking at the two polls - The first poll, by ARG, a Republican polling firm, has this:
Overall:
Santorum - 33%
Romney - 27%
Gingrich - 21%
Paul - 12%
7% undecided
+/- 4% margin of error. 4% is not bad for margin of error.
They also had crosstabs, and that's where it gets interesting between this poll and PPP's poll later:
Republicans (72% of the poll):
Santorum 42%
Gingrich 24%
Romney 18%
Paul 11%
Independents and Democrats
Romney 48%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 13%
Santorum 11%
Tea Party
Santorum 33%
Gingrich 28%
-------------------
PPP's numbers are different, and it shows most with Newt Gingrich:
Santorum 39%
Romney 24%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 11%
+/- 4.9% margin of error.
Republicans: (70%)
Santorum 38%
Romney 26%
Gingrich 12%
Paul 10%
Democrats: (4%)
Santorum 31%
Paul 31%
Gingrich 13%
Romney 11%
Independents (26%)
Santorum 42%
Romney 22%
Paul 16%
Gingrich 8%
One thing I found interesting was the area code polling. It's on page 47 of the crosstabs
231 - Western and Northwestern MI, Traverse City, Muskegon, Petoskey, Charlevoix
248 - Oakland County
269 - SW Michigan, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe, Hastings, and Benton Harbor.
313 - Detroit, Redford, Grosse Pointes, Dearborn.
517 - Lansing, East Lansing, Howell, Charlotte, Coldwater
586 - Macomb County
616 - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - Ann Arbor, Monroe, Wayne, Ypsi
810 - Brighton, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron
906 - The UP
989 - Saginaw, Northern Lower Michigan
It's going to be an interesting two weeks here. Santorum is making a run here. Romney's coming back here to try and salvage something he thought was going to be easy here. We'll find out when the results are in. If I'm Santorum, I'd be going after the absentees now. The voting actually begun for the 2-28 primary.
Looking at the two polls - The first poll, by ARG, a Republican polling firm, has this:
Overall:
Santorum - 33%
Romney - 27%
Gingrich - 21%
Paul - 12%
7% undecided
+/- 4% margin of error. 4% is not bad for margin of error.
They also had crosstabs, and that's where it gets interesting between this poll and PPP's poll later:
Republicans (72% of the poll):
Santorum 42%
Gingrich 24%
Romney 18%
Paul 11%
Independents and Democrats
Romney 48%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 13%
Santorum 11%
Tea Party
Santorum 33%
Gingrich 28%
-------------------
PPP's numbers are different, and it shows most with Newt Gingrich:
Santorum 39%
Romney 24%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 11%
+/- 4.9% margin of error.
Republicans: (70%)
Santorum 38%
Romney 26%
Gingrich 12%
Paul 10%
Democrats: (4%)
Santorum 31%
Paul 31%
Gingrich 13%
Romney 11%
Independents (26%)
Santorum 42%
Romney 22%
Paul 16%
Gingrich 8%
One thing I found interesting was the area code polling. It's on page 47 of the crosstabs
231 - Western and Northwestern MI, Traverse City, Muskegon, Petoskey, Charlevoix
248 - Oakland County
269 - SW Michigan, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe, Hastings, and Benton Harbor.
313 - Detroit, Redford, Grosse Pointes, Dearborn.
517 - Lansing, East Lansing, Howell, Charlotte, Coldwater
586 - Macomb County
616 - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - Ann Arbor, Monroe, Wayne, Ypsi
810 - Brighton, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron
906 - The UP
989 - Saginaw, Northern Lower Michigan
It's going to be an interesting two weeks here. Santorum is making a run here. Romney's coming back here to try and salvage something he thought was going to be easy here. We'll find out when the results are in. If I'm Santorum, I'd be going after the absentees now. The voting actually begun for the 2-28 primary.
Thursday, February 09, 2012
I'm voting for Rick Santorum in the primary
It's down to four people. Nobody will likely drop between now and the 28th. The four left are Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum.
Perry's out, and I'm not going to vote for a dropped candidate. That's like voting for uncommitted which is out of the question. Uncommitted means I'm passing my delegate vote off to someone unpledged. An unpledged delegated will support whoever he's asked to support. The only time I'd vote for uncommitted is if I don't care.
It's no secret my views towards Mitt Romney. The more I think about Gingrich, the most I just can't do it - for the same reason as Romney. Newt has a better record, but he's flipped so many times as well. I can't forget him and Pelosi together yapping about global warming. I can't forget about his scandals either. I can't trust him.
And trust is the biggest issue when appealing to all groups of voters. Romney and Newt are only electable if Obama beats himself. That's probably true to a degree for all candidates. A poll nine months out does not show anything about electability IN NOVEMBER. What some Romney defenders and Fox News types say is that he needs to move left to get independents. Bullshit. You don't move left - OR right - for independents or moderates. You move competent. Most independent voters and moderate voters care most about competence issues. The social liberal independent voters will sometimes vote for social conservatives - as long as the person is viewed as a competent individual and doesn't run his mouth too much. The mouth is what sometimes hurts social conservatives. The votes do not. Mike Rogers is not a social liberal. He's won Lansing before. City of. He's won Meridian Township, better known as Okemos. Social conservative and economic populist voters don't like panderers either and also care about competent issues. I throw trust in with competence issues.
Romney's record consists of tax/fee raising, gun bans, flip-flops and Romneycare. No deals. Newt's past I can forgive as a person. That's between him and God. However, that doesn't mean I trust him to keep his word to the voters. He's flipped too many times as well. He's out.
That leaves Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. I personally like both of these guys as people. I voted for Ron Paul in 2008. I like Santorum and I'd love to take about 50% of each of these two or split the difference on some of their issues and combine them into a candidate. I'm not nearly the foreign policy hawk Santorum is, nor the dove Ron Paul is. The last one I agree with more than not on policy was Reagan. For all the talk, there hasn't been a lot of difference on that from Bush 1 down to Clinton, Bush II, and Obama. Santorum would be little different there outside of talk.
I prefer Ron Paul on spending, although Santorum has voted for a balanced budget in the 1990's being part of the class of 94. He also supported Bush's budgets which aren't a good thing. I prefer Santorum on life issues. Ron Paul isn't bad there, but Santorum will go that extra step. Both are pro-2nd Amendment, but Paul will vote against good bills because they aren't perfect. I understand being a stickler of procedure at times, but national reciprocity is a big deal. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. That is where I split with Ron Paul. Pragmatism. Take what you can get with the circumstances, move in the right direction, and get the touchdown on a 2 yard run instead of the 80 yard pass when it isn't there. I don't forget bad votes on things like national reciprocity. All that does is codify full faith and credit.
The other issue is who can beat Romney and Obama. Ron Paul is an 10-25% guy in most states. He has his core following and is who he is. I think he needs to be taken seriously, especially on economic matters. Small "l" libertarians are, have been, and need to be part of the Republican coalition. A little respect - both ways - would go a long way of not blowing this opportunity to grow the party and the movement. However, he has shown so far that he can't beat Romney based on election results this year.
Santorum's weakness is 2006. He was crushed statewide in Pennsylvania. That was and is my major concern with him. However, he also won that same state twice, once in a non-republican year (in PA). 2000. He also won a democrat district (now Mike Doyle's) in the Pittsburgh Penn Hills area. You can make a case either way with electability with multiple wins and a bad loss in a bad year. The thing Santorum is showing now is that he's working his ass off with little money, and still winning some states. He recently got the hat trick. Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri. He also won Iowa after the fact. Those are four very different states with very different demographics. He gaining, and Romney once again like in 2008 can not close the deal when everything is set up for him.
Next is Arizona and Michigan. Michigan's primary is an open primary despite what some say. You just have to declare a ballot. In 2000 there was about 20% crossover votes from democrats and I expect about the same here. Delegates are won based on the both proportional (statewide) and winner take all by congressional district. I believe the congressional districts for this are the new ones, not the old ones. There's also a second election on Feb 28th in the OLD 51st district. Paul Scott was recalled thanks to the very shady folks known as the MEA-PAC. Joe Graves should make this recall all for nothing outside of a three month vacancy. From what I've heard, he's good people and will do a good job. That election will increase turnout in the 51st district and the 5th Congressional District.
If I'm Santorum, I'd campaign across the entire state. However, I'd pay extra attention in these areas if I'm going to make a run for the delegates.
1. The 1st district. Most of it was neglected and did not vote for Romney in 2008. With independents able to vote, this will be a key area.
2. The 6th District. Another McCain/not Romney district in 2008. There's an opportunity there.
3. Ottawa, Kent, Livingston, Hillsdale, North Oakland, North Macomb, Lapeer, Allegan, and West Oakland Counties. That's the base area. It goes without saying that it will be important primary day. We all know that. I'm being Captain Obvious here.
4. The blue districts. Don't neglect them. Why? Because it's winner take all by congressional district. Even with an estimated 20% crossover vote (based on 2000 numbers) will have less votes and count more for the district delegates. Detroit won't have a lot of votes in the primary, but winning the two Detroit based districts will count more than say the 8th district, even though Livingston County alone will probably have more votes than both of them. Proportional delegates count too, but it's the districts.
The blue districts are as follows.
5th - Open with Dale Kildee retiring. This one is especially important with the increased turnout in the 51st, which includes much of the Republican base in the district. The other key areas are independents and social conservative crossover democrats in Flushing, Davison, Bay County (all of it now), and even Tawas City. There's an opening for a working class guy to appeal to some of these areas that Romney will likely have problems.
9th - Levin. This now is dominant in Macomb County. Romney will clean up Bloomfield Twp as it was his home, but there's some crossover votes and a sizable republican minority in Southern Macomb County. Posthumus won Clinton Township and St Clair Shores. Warren is 60% Dem, but has over 100,000 people. Sterling Heights is competitive.
12th - Now Dingell's district. Santorum will struggle in Ann Arbor for obvious reasons, but Downriver has a sizable Republican minority. Downriver is closer to 40-46% GOP compared to 20-25% in Ann Arbor.
13th - With the switch, John Conyers and a couple of challengers. It's about a 15% Republican district, so it won't take a lot of votes to win. Westland, Garden City, Redford, and Dearborn Heights are exceedingly important here, along with your minority of black republicans. There aren't a lot of them, but they do exist. A lot of them are social conservatives. Santorum is pro-life. The 3-10% here who do sometimes vote Republican can make a big difference in this district.
14th - With the switch, Hansen Clark with Gary Peters and Brenda Lawrence. This is also about a 15% district, but a little different than the 13th. There is a small GOP base here in the Grosse Pointes. Advantage Romney. Advantage Romney in West Bloomfield as well. This is the toughest blue district I think for Santorum to win.
Santorum should do well with pro-lifers. He'll probably split the gun vote with Ron Paul, although that reciprocity vote should damage him. It will be an uphill climb with Romney's top level organization and money. I think it's Romney's to lose, but I don't think he'll take all the congressional districts, and I think it will be much closer than people think.
Santorum didn't raise taxes. Romney raised "fees" as governor. Santorum is pro-2nd Amendment. Romney signed a gun ban. Romney implemented Romneycare. Romney's record on jobs is mixed at best. Romney became supposedly pro-life when he ran for president. Santorum not only votes pro-life, but lives it. He'd also appoint good justices to SCOTUS. Santorum was part of the late 90's growth where Clinton got the credit. Santorum was part of the class of 94 and Contract with America. He was there. Romney was a son of privilege. Santorum was a working class son of immigrants who earned a law degree and worked in private practice.
I don't have a perfect vote in the primary. I don't even have an easy vote. Perry and Pawlenty dropped. Of the four that's left, Santorum's the best we got and the best chance to upset Obama (yes, Obama is the favorite against all of them) this November.
I'll be voting for Rick Santorum on February 28th.
Perry's out, and I'm not going to vote for a dropped candidate. That's like voting for uncommitted which is out of the question. Uncommitted means I'm passing my delegate vote off to someone unpledged. An unpledged delegated will support whoever he's asked to support. The only time I'd vote for uncommitted is if I don't care.
It's no secret my views towards Mitt Romney. The more I think about Gingrich, the most I just can't do it - for the same reason as Romney. Newt has a better record, but he's flipped so many times as well. I can't forget him and Pelosi together yapping about global warming. I can't forget about his scandals either. I can't trust him.
And trust is the biggest issue when appealing to all groups of voters. Romney and Newt are only electable if Obama beats himself. That's probably true to a degree for all candidates. A poll nine months out does not show anything about electability IN NOVEMBER. What some Romney defenders and Fox News types say is that he needs to move left to get independents. Bullshit. You don't move left - OR right - for independents or moderates. You move competent. Most independent voters and moderate voters care most about competence issues. The social liberal independent voters will sometimes vote for social conservatives - as long as the person is viewed as a competent individual and doesn't run his mouth too much. The mouth is what sometimes hurts social conservatives. The votes do not. Mike Rogers is not a social liberal. He's won Lansing before. City of. He's won Meridian Township, better known as Okemos. Social conservative and economic populist voters don't like panderers either and also care about competent issues. I throw trust in with competence issues.
Romney's record consists of tax/fee raising, gun bans, flip-flops and Romneycare. No deals. Newt's past I can forgive as a person. That's between him and God. However, that doesn't mean I trust him to keep his word to the voters. He's flipped too many times as well. He's out.
That leaves Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. I personally like both of these guys as people. I voted for Ron Paul in 2008. I like Santorum and I'd love to take about 50% of each of these two or split the difference on some of their issues and combine them into a candidate. I'm not nearly the foreign policy hawk Santorum is, nor the dove Ron Paul is. The last one I agree with more than not on policy was Reagan. For all the talk, there hasn't been a lot of difference on that from Bush 1 down to Clinton, Bush II, and Obama. Santorum would be little different there outside of talk.
I prefer Ron Paul on spending, although Santorum has voted for a balanced budget in the 1990's being part of the class of 94. He also supported Bush's budgets which aren't a good thing. I prefer Santorum on life issues. Ron Paul isn't bad there, but Santorum will go that extra step. Both are pro-2nd Amendment, but Paul will vote against good bills because they aren't perfect. I understand being a stickler of procedure at times, but national reciprocity is a big deal. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. That is where I split with Ron Paul. Pragmatism. Take what you can get with the circumstances, move in the right direction, and get the touchdown on a 2 yard run instead of the 80 yard pass when it isn't there. I don't forget bad votes on things like national reciprocity. All that does is codify full faith and credit.
The other issue is who can beat Romney and Obama. Ron Paul is an 10-25% guy in most states. He has his core following and is who he is. I think he needs to be taken seriously, especially on economic matters. Small "l" libertarians are, have been, and need to be part of the Republican coalition. A little respect - both ways - would go a long way of not blowing this opportunity to grow the party and the movement. However, he has shown so far that he can't beat Romney based on election results this year.
Santorum's weakness is 2006. He was crushed statewide in Pennsylvania. That was and is my major concern with him. However, he also won that same state twice, once in a non-republican year (in PA). 2000. He also won a democrat district (now Mike Doyle's) in the Pittsburgh Penn Hills area. You can make a case either way with electability with multiple wins and a bad loss in a bad year. The thing Santorum is showing now is that he's working his ass off with little money, and still winning some states. He recently got the hat trick. Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri. He also won Iowa after the fact. Those are four very different states with very different demographics. He gaining, and Romney once again like in 2008 can not close the deal when everything is set up for him.
Next is Arizona and Michigan. Michigan's primary is an open primary despite what some say. You just have to declare a ballot. In 2000 there was about 20% crossover votes from democrats and I expect about the same here. Delegates are won based on the both proportional (statewide) and winner take all by congressional district. I believe the congressional districts for this are the new ones, not the old ones. There's also a second election on Feb 28th in the OLD 51st district. Paul Scott was recalled thanks to the very shady folks known as the MEA-PAC. Joe Graves should make this recall all for nothing outside of a three month vacancy. From what I've heard, he's good people and will do a good job. That election will increase turnout in the 51st district and the 5th Congressional District.
If I'm Santorum, I'd campaign across the entire state. However, I'd pay extra attention in these areas if I'm going to make a run for the delegates.
1. The 1st district. Most of it was neglected and did not vote for Romney in 2008. With independents able to vote, this will be a key area.
2. The 6th District. Another McCain/not Romney district in 2008. There's an opportunity there.
3. Ottawa, Kent, Livingston, Hillsdale, North Oakland, North Macomb, Lapeer, Allegan, and West Oakland Counties. That's the base area. It goes without saying that it will be important primary day. We all know that. I'm being Captain Obvious here.
4. The blue districts. Don't neglect them. Why? Because it's winner take all by congressional district. Even with an estimated 20% crossover vote (based on 2000 numbers) will have less votes and count more for the district delegates. Detroit won't have a lot of votes in the primary, but winning the two Detroit based districts will count more than say the 8th district, even though Livingston County alone will probably have more votes than both of them. Proportional delegates count too, but it's the districts.
The blue districts are as follows.
5th - Open with Dale Kildee retiring. This one is especially important with the increased turnout in the 51st, which includes much of the Republican base in the district. The other key areas are independents and social conservative crossover democrats in Flushing, Davison, Bay County (all of it now), and even Tawas City. There's an opening for a working class guy to appeal to some of these areas that Romney will likely have problems.
9th - Levin. This now is dominant in Macomb County. Romney will clean up Bloomfield Twp as it was his home, but there's some crossover votes and a sizable republican minority in Southern Macomb County. Posthumus won Clinton Township and St Clair Shores. Warren is 60% Dem, but has over 100,000 people. Sterling Heights is competitive.
12th - Now Dingell's district. Santorum will struggle in Ann Arbor for obvious reasons, but Downriver has a sizable Republican minority. Downriver is closer to 40-46% GOP compared to 20-25% in Ann Arbor.
13th - With the switch, John Conyers and a couple of challengers. It's about a 15% Republican district, so it won't take a lot of votes to win. Westland, Garden City, Redford, and Dearborn Heights are exceedingly important here, along with your minority of black republicans. There aren't a lot of them, but they do exist. A lot of them are social conservatives. Santorum is pro-life. The 3-10% here who do sometimes vote Republican can make a big difference in this district.
14th - With the switch, Hansen Clark with Gary Peters and Brenda Lawrence. This is also about a 15% district, but a little different than the 13th. There is a small GOP base here in the Grosse Pointes. Advantage Romney. Advantage Romney in West Bloomfield as well. This is the toughest blue district I think for Santorum to win.
Santorum should do well with pro-lifers. He'll probably split the gun vote with Ron Paul, although that reciprocity vote should damage him. It will be an uphill climb with Romney's top level organization and money. I think it's Romney's to lose, but I don't think he'll take all the congressional districts, and I think it will be much closer than people think.
Santorum didn't raise taxes. Romney raised "fees" as governor. Santorum is pro-2nd Amendment. Romney signed a gun ban. Romney implemented Romneycare. Romney's record on jobs is mixed at best. Romney became supposedly pro-life when he ran for president. Santorum not only votes pro-life, but lives it. He'd also appoint good justices to SCOTUS. Santorum was part of the late 90's growth where Clinton got the credit. Santorum was part of the class of 94 and Contract with America. He was there. Romney was a son of privilege. Santorum was a working class son of immigrants who earned a law degree and worked in private practice.
I don't have a perfect vote in the primary. I don't even have an easy vote. Perry and Pawlenty dropped. Of the four that's left, Santorum's the best we got and the best chance to upset Obama (yes, Obama is the favorite against all of them) this November.
I'll be voting for Rick Santorum on February 28th.
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