Monday, February 13, 2012

Is Santorum leading in Michigan?

The big news is that in Mitt Romney's birth state, Rick Santorum apparently took the lead in two polls. This means possibly two things. One, the polls are accurate. Two, the polls are not accurate. If they are accurate, then this is a snapshot of the electorate at this time. It does not mean that this will be the results on February 28th. At worst, this is great momentum for Santorum today. The future will be undetermined. Remember what I said about how early polls don't matter six months down the road. A lot of things change. Even in two weeks before I vote for Santorum.


Looking at the two polls - The first poll, by ARG, a Republican polling firm, has this:

Overall:
Santorum - 33%
Romney - 27%
Gingrich - 21%
Paul - 12%
7% undecided
+/- 4% margin of error. 4% is not bad for margin of error.

They also had crosstabs, and that's where it gets interesting between this poll and PPP's poll later:

Republicans (72% of the poll):
Santorum 42%
Gingrich 24%
Romney 18%
Paul 11%

Independents and Democrats
Romney 48%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 13%
Santorum 11%

Tea Party
Santorum 33%
Gingrich 28%

-------------------

PPP's numbers are different, and it shows most with Newt Gingrich:

Santorum 39%
Romney 24%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 11%
+/- 4.9% margin of error.

Republicans: (70%)
Santorum 38%
Romney 26%
Gingrich 12%
Paul 10%

Democrats: (4%)
Santorum 31%
Paul 31%
Gingrich 13%
Romney 11%

Independents (26%)
Santorum 42%
Romney 22%
Paul 16%
Gingrich 8%

One thing I found interesting was the area code polling. It's on page 47 of the crosstabs

231 - Western and Northwestern MI, Traverse City, Muskegon, Petoskey, Charlevoix
248 - Oakland County
269 - SW Michigan, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe, Hastings, and Benton Harbor.
313 - Detroit, Redford, Grosse Pointes, Dearborn.
517 - Lansing, East Lansing, Howell, Charlotte, Coldwater
586 - Macomb County
616 - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - Ann Arbor, Monroe, Wayne, Ypsi
810 - Brighton, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron
906 - The UP
989 - Saginaw, Northern Lower Michigan

It's going to be an interesting two weeks here. Santorum is making a run here. Romney's coming back here to try and salvage something he thought was going to be easy here. We'll find out when the results are in. If I'm Santorum, I'd be going after the absentees now. The voting actually begun for the 2-28 primary.

1 comment:

Jay said...

You also have to consider PPP is a touch tone survey. I usually double their margins of error because of that.