Latest Michigan Poll - Anybody's game

There's a new poll from Glengarriff Group for the Detroit News and WDIV. It has rather interesting crosstabs.

The polls has this:
Obama - 47.5
Romney - 45

What really caught my attention is this.

This is all about turnout," said pollster Richard Czuba. "If Democrats turn out their voters, they win. If Republicans turn out more, they win. It's a pretty simple equation, as difficult as campaigns are."Romney leads Oakland County by 8.9 percent and Macomb County by 16 percent. Obama is up by 15.7 percent in Wayne County. That number does not include the city of Detroit where Obama owns nearly all votes.

IF, and that's a BIG IF -  IF either the Macomb or Oakland crosstab is accurate, we're in good shape. If BOTH Macomb and Oakland are accurate, (Wayne won't be accurate then) blowout win for Romney. How often do I predict blowouts?  I don't. Personally I think Macomb and Oakland's crosstabs are a little too good to be true, but I don't think Non Detroit Wayne County is a 16 pt deficit either. When Bush won Macomb by 1.5% and lost Oakland by 0.5%, he lost non-Detroit Wayne County by about 10.5%. The crosstabs don't make sense if Obama is supposed to be up by 2-3% I know Wayne outside of Detroit is getting bluer, but Mitt's not underperforming Kerry Downriver if he's up in Macomb 16%. He'll do better than Bush in the GP's and that NW corner of Northville, Plymouth and maybe Canton if he's up 8-9% in Oakland. Those areas are all similar to Novi, less so Canton. I expect Romney to underperform Bush in the airport areas (government unions and demographics) and Redford (Demographics).

An Oakland lead of 8.9% or Macomb lead by 16% is very significant. Here's the 04 and 08 results.

2008	GOP	Dem	Total	GOP%	Dem%	Difference	Diff
Macomb	187663	223784	419216	44.77%	53.38%	-36121	-8.62%
Oakland	276956	372566	659068	42.02%	56.53%	-95610	-14.51%
Detroit	8888	325534	335635	2.65%	96.99%	-316646	-94.34%
Wayne	210964	334551	554691	38.03%	60.31%	-123587	-22.28%
State	2048639	2872579	5001766	40.96%	57.43%	-823940	-16.47%
2004	GOP	Dem	Total	GOP%	Dem%	Difference	Diff
Macomb	202166	196160	402410	50.24%	48.75%	6006	1.49%
Oakland	316633	319387	641977	49.32%	49.75%	-2754	-0.43%
Detroit	19343	305528	325961	5.93%	93.73%	-286185	-87.80%
Wayne	238407	294519	538767	44.25%	54.67%	-56112	-10.41%
State	2313736	2479166	4839227	47.81%	51.23%	-165430	-3.42%

For argument purposes, I'll use the 04 statewide votespreads with 08 Detroit votespread. That means there will be about a 200,000 vote deficit that needs to be made up. 2008 is an aberration. McCain quit, in a wave year and KO'ed the ground game for the GOP while Obama's ground game was at its height. 2010 is an aberration as well. I'm using 08 Detroit numbers because of race.

16pts in Macomb would be about 57-41-2 for Romney. Incredible numbers. That would be about a 64,385 vote spread. It would wipe out about 30% of the estimate without anything else.

8.9% in Oakland would be about  53.9-45-1.1. That would be about a 57,136 vote spread. It would wipe out over 25% of the estimate without anything else.

Keep in mind counties aren't in vacuums. Our own Livingston County closely mirrors Western and Northern Oakland County. It is consistently about 13.5% more Republican than Oakland County as a whole.

Snyder - Oakland - 60.10, Livingston 75.05 +15
McCain - Oakland - 41.94, Livingston 55.64 +13.7
DeVos - Oakland - 44.62, Livingston 57.05 +12.5
Bush 04 - Oakland - 49.32, Livingston 62.79 +13.5
Posthumus - Oakland - 48.30, Livingston 61.86 +13.5
Bush 00 - Oakland - 48.10, Livingston 59.14 +11

That is remarkably consistent. If Oakland is polling at 53.9% Romney, expect Livingston to poll at about 67.4%. The target to win statewide in Livingston County is usually between 63-64%. The spread in Livingston would likely be about 33,000 votes instead of 25,000. That extra 8,000 helps. St Clair and Monroe Counties tend to go in the same direction as Macomb County. Downriver has some similarities to Southern Macomb County. They lean democrat, but by how much? If that Macomb number really is 16%, Obama can kiss at least the southern half of Downriver goodbye, and probably Allen Park and maybe even places like Garden City as well in Wayne County.

Do I think these crosstabs are right? I have a hard time seeing Macomb go +16% for anybody, and +9 in Oakland is tough to believe as well. So is Romney being closer to McCain numbers than Bush numbers in Non-Detroit Wayne County. No way. 10% loss in Wayne County? I can see that with an improvement in Grosse Pointe, Plymouth, Northville and maybe Livonia, along with decreases in Redford, Belleville, Van Buren Twp, and Westland. I can also see 3% wins in Macomb and Oakland more likely. 5% win in either o those places will be good and give us a chance. 9% and 16% will signal a likely blowout IMO.

I'll have to see it to believe the poll crosstabs, but I think it's plausible. We can only control what we can control - but we CAN control what we can control. This will be won or lost with the ground game.  Polls are at best a scientific educated guess. No more and no less. Take it for what it is and not what it isn't (set in stone). 

Republicans and conservatives need to GOTV, work the polls, and control the things we can control.

This election will be won or lost with the ground game

This election I expect to be razor thin. I don't know how accurate the polls have been. Right now, voting has begun in several states. Absentees are out. Early voting is going on as well in some places. Who's winning? We don't know and we won't know until starting 11 days from now. National polls, if you believe them are starting to favor Romney. State polls for electoral votes, if you believe them, are still favoring Obama. Keep in mind that polling is, when done right, a snapshot in time of an accurate sample of the state's electorate. Some are disputing the R/D weight of the electorate based on a 2008 measurement. Some think due to racial demographics that the weights are more accurate than some would like to believe.

I think Michigan is in play, but if today was the election, Obama would take it by 3-4. That's TODAY, not necessarily November 6. I think a lot of the blame falls on our so called leader and liberal supposed republican Rick Snyder. Don't blame me, I voted for Mike Cox. People are still sore on Rick Snyder for his pension tax and his gas tax proposal. He vetoed election protection bills. He's also against the 2/3rds that would stop people like Snyder from enacting his gas tax proposal. This clown, who ran as a businessman, is making things tougher for Romney. The only good thing I'll say about Snyder is that he appointed Zahra to the Supreme Court and his push against the SEIU and MEA. However, with Romney's similar style in presentation to Snyder, it's not helping him here.

As for Romney, I'll say this. He's not Obama. That was enough for my vote. It buys us time until we get someone better (that's why we have primaries and time to build a farm club of governors like Mike Pence).  A worst case Romney presidency would be better than what we've seen with Obama. If Romney wins, at worst, we'll see this:

• Better Supreme Court picks than Kagan and Sotomayor
• Eric Holder - Janet Reno protege and Fast and Furious boss - gone from Attorney General
• Tim Geithner - Goldman Sachs guy and AIG buddy - gone as Treasury Secretary
• Hillary Clinton - Gone as Secretary of State
• Steven Chu - Foe of domestic energy development - gone as Energy Secretary
• Kathleen Sebelius -  Staunchly pro-abortion including late term abortion, and opponent of religious freedom - gone as Health and Human Services Secretary. 
• Janet Napoliantano - Gone as Homeland Security 
• Barack Obama - Record setting debt - Gone as the Peter Principle in Chief. 
• Green Energy scams, cronyism, and waste - Gone

If that's the worst case scenario - I'll take it. I'm not expecting Mitt to be the next Thomas Jefferson, or the next Mike Pence, but I'll even take George W Bush with his fiscal headaches (Obama is worse) than what's there now. I think Mitt will be better than Bush on fiscal issues (although no Pence or even Engler), and hopefully won't get in our way on social issues (but he won't be Joe Schwarz or even McCain). 

Back to the polls. Regarding the poll variance and predictions, the message I have is this. Control what you can control. Anything else is a guessing game. The dems are going to control what they control - up into including cheating. From Project Veritas





That's Patrick Moran. His dad is Jim Moran, controversial congresscritter from Northern Virginia. Jim Moran is known for plenty of shenanigans, and it apparently runs in the family. The question for us is this -  If the urban democrat machines go back to their Chicago or Tweed roots, what are we going to do about it?

The majority of people don't like politics. They are above politics. However, politics isn't above any of us. If we don't dictate politics, politics will dictate to us. During the last 11 days, there's actually a lot of things we can do.

1. Vote against Obama and that means Romney. That's the easiest part. (For those wanting other candidates, that's why we have primaries.)

2. Yard Signs - Finally, more signs are in. While I'm a strong vocal critic both publicly and privately of the sign policy this year, they are coming in. They are available at your local victory center. For those here in Livingston County, you can pick them up next to the Howell area Hungry Howies near the Great Escape. Grand River just east of Chilson in Genoa Township.

3. Volunteer work - There's a big push going on now. Last minute phones (I don't do that and understand why people won't), lit drops, doors, and other last minute campaign stuff.

4. Poll watching and challenging - If you want to stop the Patrick Moran shenanigans, there's a way we can help. Poll challenging and poll watching on election day. Anyone can be a poll watcher. Poll challengers have more powers (and must follow strict rules - do not talk to the voters). If you are interested in being a challenger, contact state party at 517-487-5413. They will give you necessary training needed. The more (good) challengers we have out there, the better the chances of everyone being on their best behavior. If you are a challenger, don't forget to vote absentee.

It's the ground game that will win this election, whether it be for defeating Obama, or whether we'll be stuck with the Peter Principle in Chief for another four years. There's things we can't control, but we can control what we can control. We have to make sure we can control what we can control.

Protect freedom. Defeat Obama.

Poll Update - 2nd PPP poll less of an outlier

Last Thursday, I had a post about the delegate process and listed polls and congressional districts.

I never thought Santorum was up 15 over Romney in Michigan. Most of the polls have it 4-10 pts. I think 4 is accurate, right now as things stand today. Will it change in a week? Possibly.

What I like about the PPP polls is that delegates in Michigan are chosen by Congressional District. All the polls are statewide only or listed by some regions. PPP used phone area codes. While that's not a perfect assessment of the polling by district, it does show a rough estimate.

Here's the latest from PPP


Area Code:
231 - 44-22 Santorum - West/NW MI. Muskegon to Traverse City
248 - 36-32 Romney - Oakland County
269 - 48-35 Santorum - Hastings, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe
313 - 43-22-21 - Romney, Paul, Santorum. Big shift in Wayne County - Is this the Grosse Pointes or Redford/Westland? Paul vote is probably Dearborn.
517 - 40-33 Santorum - Big shift to Santorum. Lansing area, Western Livingston County, Hillsdale, Jackson.
586 - tied at 38. Macomb County.
616 - 37-35 Santorum - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - 40-29 Romney - Big shift to Romney. Ann Arbor, Ypsi, Southernmost Livingston County, Monroe. I'm not surprised here with Ann Arbor.
810 - 46-19-18 Santorum-Paul-Romney. Eastern Livingston, Flint area, Lapeer, Port Huron.
906 - 29-27-21 - Santorum-Romney-Paul - The UP. Small sample of numbers fluctuated here.
989 - 39-29 Santorum-Romney - From Saginaw to Northeastern Michigan.

Based on this:
Santorum takes - CD 1, CD 2, maybe 3, CD 4, CD 5, CD 6, CD 7, CD 10 (thanks to thumb),
Romney takes - CD 9, 11, probably 12, 14.
Tossup - My own 8th District and the 13th

These are the NEW districts that count, not the old one's. That could help or hurt Romney in a big way since the Bloomfield/Birmingham areas - his home base - are carved up into several districts.

The 9th has Southfield Township and Bloomfield Township.
The 11th has part of West Bloomfield, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham, as well as Troy.
The 14th has most of West Bloomfield.

Romney in all polls leads Oakland County. The question is where in Oakland. Oakland County is a big place, and doesn't think uniformly throughout the county.

Also the big shift his way in 734 and 313. Where was the 313 samples? I'm guessing largly Grosse Pointe, in the 14th district. Does Redford and Westland in the 13th lean the same way? I'll be somewhat surprised, but it's possible. The 734 numbers here reflect my more original thoughts. I don't see Ann Arbor or suburbs warming up to Santorum. I think Romney would also play well in Plymouth (11th District).

I see this going likely 8-4 Santorum with two up for grabs in the race for Congressional districts. If I got pushed into the corner, I'd guess Romney with the 8th and Santorum the 13th, both narrowly making it 9-5. I wouldn't be shocked at 8-6 or 10-4.

That's also if things don't change. A late surprise attack wouldn't shock me in the slightest.

Is Santorum leading in Michigan?

The big news is that in Mitt Romney's birth state, Rick Santorum apparently took the lead in two polls. This means possibly two things. One, the polls are accurate. Two, the polls are not accurate. If they are accurate, then this is a snapshot of the electorate at this time. It does not mean that this will be the results on February 28th. At worst, this is great momentum for Santorum today. The future will be undetermined. Remember what I said about how early polls don't matter six months down the road. A lot of things change. Even in two weeks before I vote for Santorum.


Looking at the two polls - The first poll, by ARG, a Republican polling firm, has this:

Overall:
Santorum - 33%
Romney - 27%
Gingrich - 21%
Paul - 12%
7% undecided
+/- 4% margin of error. 4% is not bad for margin of error.

They also had crosstabs, and that's where it gets interesting between this poll and PPP's poll later:

Republicans (72% of the poll):
Santorum 42%
Gingrich 24%
Romney 18%
Paul 11%

Independents and Democrats
Romney 48%
Paul 15%
Gingrich 13%
Santorum 11%

Tea Party
Santorum 33%
Gingrich 28%

-------------------

PPP's numbers are different, and it shows most with Newt Gingrich:

Santorum 39%
Romney 24%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 11%
+/- 4.9% margin of error.

Republicans: (70%)
Santorum 38%
Romney 26%
Gingrich 12%
Paul 10%

Democrats: (4%)
Santorum 31%
Paul 31%
Gingrich 13%
Romney 11%

Independents (26%)
Santorum 42%
Romney 22%
Paul 16%
Gingrich 8%

One thing I found interesting was the area code polling. It's on page 47 of the crosstabs

231 - Western and Northwestern MI, Traverse City, Muskegon, Petoskey, Charlevoix
248 - Oakland County
269 - SW Michigan, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe, Hastings, and Benton Harbor.
313 - Detroit, Redford, Grosse Pointes, Dearborn.
517 - Lansing, East Lansing, Howell, Charlotte, Coldwater
586 - Macomb County
616 - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - Ann Arbor, Monroe, Wayne, Ypsi
810 - Brighton, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron
906 - The UP
989 - Saginaw, Northern Lower Michigan

It's going to be an interesting two weeks here. Santorum is making a run here. Romney's coming back here to try and salvage something he thought was going to be easy here. We'll find out when the results are in. If I'm Santorum, I'd be going after the absentees now. The voting actually begun for the 2-28 primary.

Polls

One of the better undergrad political science classes I took at MSU focused on polling. There a lot of polls right now with a lot of different samples, in different areas, by different companies, with different results. Polls are educated guesses.

The first thing with a poll to look at is as follows. Is it scientific? If not, it's worthless. The next. Margin of error. Anything over 5% is worthless. Throw it out. If it's got a 3% or 4% margin of error, it's supposed to be considered good. That means if a poll says Gingrich 28, Romney 24, and real numbers are 32-20 or 24-28, that's good. What I mean by real numbers, is also the results from that day. Not January 3rd. If there's movement in that last week, a poll may look way off. It may actually be right - at that time.

Polls when done right, are a snapshot in time of a representative sample of the population covered. A good poll from December 19th, is a sample of the opinions of the population from December 19th. Between now and then, people may change their minds, or the undecideds may all move in one direction, or not. Generally, the larger the race, the better the polls. National is usually closer than statewide, which is closer than congressional. Congressional downward tends to often be quite inaccurate - to the point where state rep/senate races oftentimes don't even use polling. It can be way off. Not always. I was quite skeptical of some 2010 polling in some districts. To the person who told me that we were leading in some of those districts - you called it. I needed to see it to believe it, and I saw it in the actual results. The worst polling however is with issues. Those are almost never right. I've seen issues polled 60-40 in favor end up losing election time on a common basis. I chalk that up often to people lying to pollsters.

The biggest unfortunate aspect with public polls, and we ALL are guilty to some degree here, is with the bandwagon effect. We rely on these polls to shape our voting tactics. That's especially when we want to stop a candidate more than support one. People want to vote for a winner, or they want to stop a frontrunner. I look a whole bunch of polls and look at the momentum, trying to shift through the outliers.

Luckily in Michigan, we AREN'T first. We get to see real results besides opinion polls. Iowa. New Hampshire. South Carolina. Florida. Nevada. Colorado. They will vet candidates and make their decisions. Those are going to shift the polls here, as electability is more apt to be determined.

So when you see a poll, appreciate it for what it is if done right. A snapshot in time of a representative sample of the population covered. From the day the question was asked. That may or may not be the final numbers.

Latest Polls. Mike Cox leads all

When EPIC/MRA has you up by a good margin, it's good news. They usually have a democrat leaning to them.The Free Press has the news story on it

Here's the numbers.

Dem Primary:
38% - Undecided
23% - Denise Ilitch (undeclared)
9% - Gary Peters (not running)
8% - Andy Dillon
6% - Bart Stupak (out), Dan Kildee, Virg Bernero
2% - Bob Bowman, Tony Early (Who?)

GOP Primary
32% - Mike Cox
25% - Pete Hoekstra
22% - Undecided
16% - Mike Bouchard
3% - Rick Snyder
2% - Tom George

Not a lot of changes on the GOP side. It seems to be a Cox vs Hoekstra race with Bouchard a solid 3rd.

Hoekstra v Ilitch
42% - Hoekstra
35% - Ilitch

Cox v Ilitch
48% - Cox
30% - Ilitch

Dillon v Cox
47% - Cox
30% - Dillon

Dillon v Hoekstra
40% - Hoekstra
32% - Dillon

Bernero v Cox
50% - Cox
28% - Bernero

Bernero v Hoekstra
45% - Hoekstra
27% - Bernero

Dems go after pollsters?

Unbelievable. From Politico

Democrats are turning their fire on Scott Rasmussen, the prolific independent pollster whose surveys on elections, President Obama’s popularity and a host of other issues are surfacing in the media with increasing frequency.

The pointed attacks reflect a hardening conventional wisdom among prominent liberal bloggers and many Democrats that Rasmussen Reports polls are, at best, the result of a flawed polling model and, at worst, designed to undermine Democratic politicians and the party’s national agenda.

On progressive-oriented websites, anti-Rasmussen sentiment is an article of faith. “Rasmussen Caught With Their Thumb on the Scale,” blared the Daily Kos this summer. “Rasmussen Reports, You Decide,” the blog Swing State Project recently headlined in a play on the Fox News motto.

“I don’t think there are Republican polling firms that get as good a result as Rasmussen does,” said Eric Boehlert, a senior fellow with Media Matters, a progressive research center. “His data looks like it all comes out of the RNC [Republican National Committee].”

“Whether intended or not, Rasmussen polls have been used by conservative voices as talking points, and when that happens on one side it inevitably produces a reaction from the other,” explained Mark Blumenthal, a polling analyst and the editor and publisher of Pollster.com. “Rasmussen produces a lot of data that appear to produce narratives conservatives are promoting, and that causes a reaction.”

While Scott Rasmussen, the firm’s president, contends that he has no ax to grind — his bio notes that he has been “an independent pollster for more than a decade” and “has never been a campaign pollster or consultant for candidates seeking office” — his opponents on the left insist he is the hand that feeds conservative talkers a daily trove of negative numbers that provides grist for attacks on Obama and the Democratic Party.

Leave it to the hacks like David Brock's (the hack) "Media matters" to be idiots. If the methodology was challenged, that's one thing. This is just bitching about the numbers.

Now I don't always like the polls, but always remember one thing with a polls. At its best, it's a snapshot in time of the current political situation. It also does not measure intensity of the views. People's opinions can change.

As far as pollsters goes, It's always good to know the bias behind them and factor that into the race. That's why I always look at multiple polls. If four pollsters say the same thing, it's probably close. There's the DailyKos, Penn, Field, and NY Times poll on the left. There's Market Research and ARG on the right. There's survey usa, Gallup, Rasmussen, USAToday, Fox, and CNN in between. Mitchell and EPIC/MRA are right and left, but sometimes actually have the most unfavorable numbers for their side.

Real Clear Politics shows the most recent polls regarding job approval: First numbers are dates, then polled, then whether adults, likely voters, or registered voters are polled. One thing I noticed different with Rasmussen is that he polled only likely voters. Only Battleground (Bipartisan with one republican and one democrat) also did that.

Gallup	12/28 - 12/30	1547 A	51	42	+9
Rasmussen Reports	12/28 - 12/30	1500 LV	46	53	-7
Quinnipiac	12/15 - 12/20	1616 RV	46	43	+3
CNN/Opinion Research	12/16 - 12/20	1160 A	54	44	+10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	12/11 - 12/14	1008 A	47	46	+1
Associated Press/GfK	12/10 - 12/14	1001 A	56	42	+14
USA Today/Gallup	12/11 - 12/13	1025 A	49	46	+3
ABC News/Wash Post	12/10 - 12/13	1003 A	50	46	+4
Pew Research	12/9 - 12/13	1504 A	49	40	+9
Battleground	12/6 - 12/10	1000 LV	50	45	+5
FOX News	12/8 - 12/9	900 RV	50	44	+6

Now is Rasmussen accurate? At times he's been inaccurate (2000), but I know he changed his style after that. In 2008, these were the final polls.

Marist	11/03 - 11/03	804 LV	4.0	52	43	Obama +9
Battleground (Lake)*	11/02 - 11/03	800 LV	3.5	52	47	Obama +5
Battleground (Tarrance)*	11/02 - 11/03	800 LV	3.5	50	48	Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports	11/01 - 11/03	3000 LV	2.0	52	46	Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby	11/01 - 11/03	1201 LV	2.9	54	43	Obama +11
IBD/TIPP	11/01 - 11/03	981 LV	3.2	52	44	Obama +8
FOX News	11/01 - 11/02	971 LV	3.0	50	43	Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	11/01 - 11/02	1011 LV	3.1	51	43	Obama +8
Gallup	10/31 - 11/02	2472 LV	2.0	55	44	Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline	10/31 - 11/02	887 LV	3.3	50	45	Obama +5
CBS News	10/31 - 11/02	714 LV	--	51	42	Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post	10/30 - 11/02	2470 LV	2.5	53	44	Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy	10/30 - 11/02	760 LV	3.6	53	46	Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research	10/30 - 11/01	714 LV	3.5	53	46	Obama +7
Pew Research	10/29 - 11/01	2587 LV	2.0	52	46	Obama +6

The final number was Obama +7. Not dead on, but he was close. 1 pt off is real good and within the margin of error. If you go with the runup before the election, there were several 9-10-11% leads for Obama, and it wasn't that far apart.

2004 Rasmussen was very close.

GW/Battleground (1000 LV)	10/31 - 11/1	50%	46%	Bush +4
Rasmussen (3,000 LV)	10/30 - 11/1	50.2%	48.5%	Bush +1.7
TIPP (936 LV)	10/30 - 11/1	46.9%	44.3%	Bush +2.6
FOX News (1200 LV)	10/30 - 10/31	46%	48%	Kerry +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1573 LV)	10/29 - 10/31	49%	47%	Bush +2
CBS/NY Times (643 LV)	10/28 - 10/30	50%	47%	Bush +3
ARG (1258 LV)	10/28 - 10/30	48%	49%	Kerry +1
Newsweek (882 LV)	10/27 - 10/29	51%	45%	Bush +6

TIPP was the champ by margin, but Rasmussen was only 1/2 a percent off of Bush's numbers and .3% off on Kerry's numbers. That's good work for a pollster. One thing good about the Real Clear Politics site is that they show a large number of the polls and average them, and also compare them.

State polls are tougher, but here's the polls here. The final result was McDonnell by 17 and Christie by 4 with the independent taking almost 6%

SurveyUSA	10/30 - 11/1	574 LV	58	40	McDonnell +18
Times-Dispatch/MD	10/28 - 10/29	625 LV	53	41	McDonnell +12
Rasmussen Reports	10/27 - 10/27	1000 LV	54	41	McDonnell +13
Daily Kos/R2000	10/26 - 10/28	600 LV	54	44	McDonnell +10
Suffolk University	10/26 - 10/28	400 LV	54	40	McDonnell +14

Monmouth/Gannett	10/31 - 11/1	722 LV	41	43	8	Corzine +2
SurveyUSA	10/30 - 11/1	582 LV	45	42	10	Christie +3
Quinnipiac	10/27 - 11/1	1533 LV	42	40	12	Christie +2
Rasmussen Reports	10/29 - 10/29	1000 LV	46	43	8	Christie +3
Stockton/Zogby	10/27 - 10/29	1093 LV	39	40	14	Corzine +1

He was off in Virginia (towards the dem), but close in Jersey. One thing about pollsters, you can always judge them by their final results.

Politico also said this.

Last year, the progressive website FiveThirtyEight.com’s pollster ratings, based on the 2008 presidential primaries, awarded Rasmussen the third-highest mark for its accuracy in predicting the outcome of the contests. And Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome. 

Rasmussen, for his part, explained that his numbers are trending Republican simply because he is screening for only those voters most likely to head to the polls — a pool of respondents, he argues, that just so happens to bend more conservative this election cycle.

Polling all adults — a method used by Gallup, another polling firm that conducts a daily tracking poll of Obama — Rasmussen acknowledged, is “always going to yield a better result for Democrats.”

 

Now the left isn't the only one to complain about the numbers. 

Last month, conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh accused the Gallup polling organization of “doing everything they can — they're upping the sample to black Americans — to keep” Obama’s approval at 50 percent.

And PPP, which has also increased its profile in the past two election cycles, has drawn criticism from Republicans for repeatedly showing North Carolina GOP Sen. Richard Burr with low ratings heading into his 2010 reelection.

PPP IS democrat and that should be kept in mind, and Gallup's numbers are more friendly to the dems. Is it biasness looking for a result, bad methodology, or just educated guess on the samples? 

Gallup and Rasmussen are the most opposite of recent polls. Gallup has Obama +9 and Rasmussen -7. 

Rasmussen - Likely Voters - 1500 

Gallup - Adults  - 1547

Gallup by demographics there - I don't see the weights to the responses however

Crosstabs are for premium members on Rasmussen's site.

The main thing I try to find out with polls, is the weight (Party ID). That usually determines how far left/right it leans. If the methodology is wrong, that's one thing. If the weight is wrong, that's one thing. If the numbers are unfriendly, that's just sour grapes. 

Most importantly though is that in the end one poll matters, and outside of vote fraud, it's the most accurate one. Election Day.

Cox has highest lead in general election poll (45% Cox, 30% Cherry)

Now this is real early, but the results are so far promising. EPIC/MRA, a democrat leaning polling firm, has all GOP candidates leading Cherry in the General election except Rick Snyder. The taps were posted by Wood TV in Grand Rapids. Some interesting results.

Direction (US).
35% - Right Direction
58% - Wrong Direction

Direction (Michigan)
17% - Right Direction
75% - Wrong Direction

Democrat Primary:
33% - John Cherry
5% - Alma Wheeler Smith
3% - George Perles (Yes, that Perles)
3% - Don Williamson
2% - John Freeman
54% - Undecided

Republican Primary:
29% - Pete Hoekstra
28% - Mike Cox
14% - Mike Bouchard
3% - Rick Snyder
2% - Tom George
24% Undecided.

Positive/Negative Obama
48% - Positive
51% - Negative

Positive/Negative Granholm
33% - Positive
66% - Negative

Matchups:

45% Cox
30% Cherry
25% Undecided

40% Hoekstra
33% Cherry
27% Undecided

39% Bouchard
31% Cherry
30% Undecided

34% Cherry
32% Snyder
34% Undecided

Once again. This is a democrat leaning polling firm. This isn't Strategic Vision. This isn't even Mitchell. From this firm, Cox leads by 15, and the rest have leads of at least 7 outside of Rick Snyder. The results are good if you are not a democrat or Rick Snyder. The problem with Cherry is that he's Michigan's version of Al Gore in a bad economy. After eight years of an administration, there's usually fatigue. Reagan was the exception, and the VP Bush won in 1988. Gore had a good economy, and he still couldn't win because he turned into a gun grabber when he went national. Dick Cheney didn't run in 2008, but probably would have done no different than McCain.

Posthumus could have won with a little more help as the 12% expected loss turned into 4%. Still wasn't a win. Engler broke the 8 year jinx with a third term however. Milliken's first choice lost in the primary after 12 years. Blanchard himself lost when he wanted a 3rd term. After 8 years, usually it's trouble.

And unless things change in the next year, it's big trouble for Granholm/Cherry. Cherry isn't following Clinton who had a good rep thanks to the 1994 Republicans and their work on the economy. Cherry's following the Matt Millen of governors.

Updates on polls and Electoral College Math

Some shakeups.

North Carolina (Survey USA) - McCain by 20.
Montana (Rasmussen) - McCain by 11
New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson) - Obama by 6

I had all three of those as leaning GOP/Dem. I'm still not quite ready to put either NC/Montana into the solid McCain colum. Jersey is about where I'd expect.

National Polls:
Today:
NBC/WSJ - Obama by 1
Yesterday:
Gallup - McCain by 5
Rasmussen - Tie
Hotline - McCain by 1
ABC - McCain by 2
CBS - McCain by 2
IBD/TIPP - Obama by 5