What happened in Virginia? (Eric Cantor loses)

I haven't followed a lot of national election races this year. There's been too much stuff locally that takes up my time. I knew longtime incumbent Eric Cantor had an opponent, but I didn't think much about it. If I thought an incumbent would have gone down in flames, my money would have been on Lindsay Graham.

It was Eric Cantor, House Majority Leader and  a suburban Richmond area congressman. He lost to a guy named David Brat. A lot of people are giving opinions about the reasons for that and a lot of people are taking credit. I'm not a Virginia elections expert. I do know the obvious. Cantor ticked off his district, and Brat was viewed as an acceptable alternative. David Brat is an Economics Professor at Randolph Macon College. He's a Michigan native and went to Hope College. He has a doctorate from American University. That's all that's really known about him.

These are the facts here about the primaries.

There were three congressional primaries there. Two of them had incumbents, and one was an open seat.

VA-01- Rob Wittman won his primary 76-24 in a low turnout race. This district was next to Cantor's and had around 1/4 of the votes in the primary. Cantor's district is more Republican, but both districts are Republican leaning districts. There was 17500 votes there.

VA-08 - The democrats had an open seat in Jim Moran's district. That primary had almost 39000 votes. That is a base democrat district covering Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and part of Fairfax County.

In Cantor's VA-07 district, there were 65000 votes. Turnout was high. Cantor lost by 7300 votes in a 56-44 defeat.

Geographicaly, Cantor won four municipalities.
Culpeper County - 2900 votes, 50-49 -  Rural, northern part of the district
Orange County - 2000 votes, 61-39 - Rural, northern part of the district
Spotsylvania County - 3600 votes, 54-46 - Rural, northern part of the district
Richmond (his home) - 3100 votes, 54-46 - The big city.

The rest went to Brat.
Chesterfield County  - 13000 votes - 55-45 Brat, Richmond suburbs
Goochland County - 2700 votes - 54-56. Rural, west of Richmond.
Hanover County - 13000 votes - 68-32. Rural/suburban transition area north of Richmond
Henrico County - 20000 votes - 53-47. Suburban Richmond
Louisa County - 2400 votes - 56-44. Rural. Northwest of Richmond
New Kent County - 2000 votes - 63-37. Rural. East of Richmond

In short, Cantor won his home, and three rural counties furthest away from the district closer to the DC area. He was clobbered in suburbia and the rural areas closer to Richmond.

That's the facts, the rest is conjecture. 





Was this due to amnesty as many pundits say? Maybe, maybe not. Lindsay Graham won without a runoff (7 way race), unfortunately. I was hoping McCain's mini-me would at least be tossed to a runoff. Was this tea party? McConnell beat Matt Bevin in Kentucky. Most of the tea party put their forces in Bevin's race and Chris McDaniel's in Mississippi. (two very flawed challengers against beatable incumbents).

One difference I see between Bevin/McDaniel and Brat is candidate quality. Bevin lost 60-35 in the primary to McConnell in what was supposed to be a close race. Bevin made a fatal error when he made a cockfighting and dogfighting speech. I can see the Michael Vick/Bevin morphing ad already if he won the primary. Or a postcard with a picture of those two next to a Golden Retriever. McConnell isn't my favorite, but needed to win that one. Some of McDaniel's top supporters (who need a major league ass kicking and I don't mean just a political one) may cost him the race against the democrat if he wins the primary. I'd be reluctantly voting Cochrane if I lived in Mississippi. Those wouldn't be ideology votes since I'm closer to the challengers on ideology there than I am the incumbents. In the case of Brat, I haven't heard his name in the news or on political websites until yesterday. That's not always a bad thing considering I'm up in Livingston County, Michigan and not Hanover County, Virginia. I didn't hear about Brat making cockfighting comments. I didn't hear about Brat's supporters sneaking into a nursing home to take pictures of the opposing candidate's wife. Brat ran on political record as best as I can tell.

Brat's quotes. From Politico

“I think it was just kind of a perfect combination of when I was walking door-to-door, you just go up to the door and talk to the average person and everybody is in agreement that the country’s on the wrong track, right?” he said, before appearing on Sean Hannity’s Fox News program.
“You just walk up to the door and say, ‘How are you doing?’ and everyone knows we’re on the wrong track. The problem with modern politics is everybody is doing sound bite stuff. In my stump speech, I give 20 minutes on why I think we’re off track. And I think people do really want to engage in a serious high-level discussion on how to get the country back on track because people care about their own country.”

I liked Brat's comments here from the same article.

When Brat began to walk away from the interview, he quickly turned around and stopped. He said he had just spoken to Sean Hannity on the telephone, and said he wished the press would stop labeling his victory as the conservative right toppling the establishment.
“I do want to add that the press – and I’ve heard there’s already some senior Democratic officials trying to spin this as a matter of right or left – and I just reject those categories. I’m running on free markets, constitutional principles. I don’t think free markets are either right or left. I don’t think the rule of law is either right or left. So through the duration of the last six months the press has been trying to pigeonhole me. Some people call me a liberal professor, other people call me a tea party candidate.”
When asked if he is a tea partier, Brat said, “I just say what I say — I’m running on the Republican principles, the creed. I’ve given stump speech after stump speech on those six principles that I believe in and I have huge grassroots and tea party support, and I owe those people the election. I owe Republicans, tea party, grassroots — they all came together and helped me win tonight. Utter thanks, but the press is trying to do this sound bite stuff and put you in a little hole, and peg you in one way or the other.
“I do just want to emphasize I’m running on ideas and principles. It’s for real. And so the press ignored me last time when I said that. Everyone’s acting like it’s a mystery how I won. I think the American people actually like principles and ideals. That’s what I said for six months and no one paid any attention. And so now that I won, it’s a shocker, I think it’s for real, based on those themes: principles and ideas matter.”

This http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/2014-virginia-primary-david-brat-107700_Page2.html#ixzz34LKxdTL9">caught my attention.

Brat also got a bit lucky. At the same time he was emerging, Cantor and his political team were angering conservatives by trying to tighten their grip on the Virginia Republican Party. Cantor tried to boost Linwood Cobb, his close ally, for a local Republican Party chairmanship, and failed. It was a loss that most of his aides brushed aside, but caused real ire among tea partiers.
That widespread discontent became evident Tuesday evening. Cantor lost six of the 10 counties in his district, including Henrico County, his longtime political base

If you burn bridges, and those you burn know what they are doing (or know people who know what they are doing), bad thing can happen to you.

This is from a local Hanover County activist who wanted Cantor fired. It's titled the Top 10 reasons Cantor lost.

I'm beginning to see a picture of what I think happened. Normal insurgent challenges don't win, until enough people get pissed off, and enough people who know a bit about campaigns get pissed off.

From that Top 10 list:

10 – LOST TOUCH: There has been significant discontent in the district for years with Eric Cantor. He earned a reputation as someone who cared more about Fortune 500 companies than he did voters in his own district and he proved it by spending all his time with them and no time with the people in his district. It was baffling to many of us. When the tea party first sprung up people were angry with Cantor. I had known Cantor and Ray Allen for years and thought it was just a misunderstanding. Surely this could be resolved by opening the lines of communication and just having a meeting together for Cantor to hear our complaints so we could work together. I still remember the private meeting I had with his consultant, Ray Allen, five years ago when he told me, “Eric Cantor will never hold a town hall meeting. Over my dead body! You hear me?” Fatal mistake.

Consultants (and I am one) are often in a bubble. Mike Rogers was not a tea party favorite, but he's shown up and engaged and made his case to them. I've seen his people at a lot of tea party events as well as regular Republican events.


Numbers 2 and 8 really I think were the biggest.

2 – STRONG CANDIDATE: The conservatives and tea party put up a strong candidate. A lesson should be learned here by others. Brat has an impressive resume with his PhD in economics, his seminary degree from Princeton, and his work in ethics reform and education policy. He was an intelligent and articulate candidate that brought credibility to the movement. Brat ran a positive and upbeat campaign that solely was focused on the Republican Creed. Cantor refused to engage Brat or even participate in debates with Brat. Fatal mistake.

How often do I mention candidate quality?  This David Brat guy doesn't sound like a Christine O'Donnell, Matt Bevin, some of Chris McDaniel's top backers, or Sharron Angle.

8 – UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES: Eric Cantor and his consultant, Ray Allen, wanted to control the Republican Party of Virginia and he was willing to use any means necessary to accomplish his goal, including slating tea party and conservatives out of the political process. He created such outrage that we removed Cantor’s 7th district chairman, Linwood Cobb, at the convention last month. We left the convention with 700 delegates that energetically and enthusiastically worked the doors and phones for Brat. It is really not smart to make enemies of your friends, and especially when you are in a primary. Fatal mistake.

And THAT I think was the big key. One of the old sayings is "If you're going to kill the king, you better succeed." That doesn't mean wound for one battle. When convention battles are takeover battles, you're going have some nasty fights and they last a long time. Activists in general hate coronations. They also have more political knowledge than the average activist.  A lot of them don't have fear of "big names". "So what, you work for us" is the general attitude.

From Politico in April

RICHMOND, Va. — House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is a rising star in national politics, but here at home, he’s at the center of a battle with fellow Republicans.
His allies are maneuvering to pack leadership slots at the Republican Party of Virginia with like-minded figures — a move they hope will bring stability to a party with little money and lots of infighting.

That’s infuriated some local conservatives, who feel they are being squeezed out of positions of power and aren’t going down without a fight. They are rallying behind insurgent primary challenger Dave Brat, an economics professor with just $40,000 in the bank — compared to Cantor’s $2 million.

While Brat has little chance of upsetting Cantor in the June 10 primary, the campaign and its supporters are making life a little tougher for Cantor, who will almost certainly become the next speaker of the House.

Those don't impact the numbers, but they impact organization and lot of them know what they are doing. If they all went to help David Brat, that can have a big impact, especially if they have good voter lists and contact information. 

 

I don't think this was all ideological.  Graham survived. McConnell survived. I think ideology was part of it, but more of it was inside baseball stuff that came back to bite him This election is a lesson. It's a lesson to every pol and party official out there. Be careful who you piss off.

The races outside of Michigan

Outside of Michigan, we had several races out there.

Virginia was a blowout. Straight down the line.

Bob McDonnell is a strong conservative. He's no liberal, not even a moderate. However, he won 59%-41% in a state that has two democrat senators, went for Obama, and twice for democrat governors. The GOP needs to study how he won. It could be a very good template for running elections.

It wasn't just conservatives areas McDonnell won. McDonnell won almost all areas in liberal Northern Virginia. He lost Arlington and Alexandria which is the most liberal part of the state, but he won Fairfax County, which voted for John Kerry. He won the outer suburban and competitive counties of Loudoun and Prince William. In central Virginia, he even won Albemarle county which surrounds Charlottesville, which is the Ann Arbor of Virginia. (Cities are like their own counties in Virginia)

The Lt Governor, Bolling, won 56%-44%. He didn't win Fairfax County, but it was still a solid win. He got 48% in Fairfax which is more than good enough to win statewide.

The Attorney General candidate, Cuccinelli, was arguably the most conservative. He won 57-42%  He ran even with Bolling in Northern Virginia and did well downstate as well.

I don't know how many incumbent delegates lost, but barring recounts the GOP took races by 2% in Va Beach,1% in Lynchburg, 1% in Fairfax County, 1% in Prince William, 5% in Fairfax and Loudoun. There was probably some coattails there. Some were saved from defeat, or picked up democrat seats due to that. They didn't get all the close ones, but they got a lot of them.

For the state house/senate special elections, I don't know much about most of the districts.

Alabama had a special election for their state house. The last democrat won with 60%. The open seat went 53% democrat.

Georgia races:
State Senate 1 - Republican unopposed except by another Republican (They use the Southern runoff system)
State House 75 - Dems 60%, GOP 40%  - Clayton County, which is 70%+ democrat
State House 139 - All GOP running
State House 141 - Independent and Democrat will run off. Two Republicans split vote. One dem ran.
State House 159 - All GOP running

Missouri House 73 - Went Democrat. 60%
New Jersey was the big exclaimation point. Chris Christie, a moderate (true moderate, not liberal) Republican defeated incumbent limosine leftist and Goldman Sachs slappy Jon Corzine in a close election. 49% for Christie, and 45% for incumbent Corzine. I didn't see a lot of incuumbents defeated there for state assembly, but some open seats went GOP as well.

Couldn't find anything in New Hampshire 11th.

South Carolina 48th - 72% Republican win.

Washington State Races
9th District - 55%-45% Republican  (Eastern Washington)
15th District (Yakima) - 69%-30% Republican
16th District (Walla Walla) - 58%-42% Republican
California's 10th District stayed democrat. 15% lead or so last I saw. John Kerry and Obama both won the district by 20%

And then there's the aberration and major defeat. New York 23.

First off, whoever the GOP county chairs are that picked the 5%'er. DeDe Scozzafava, need to be relieved of their duty. They FUBARED.  Job number one for special elections that should be won is this. Pick a candidate that fits the district. What is worst of all about this is that the blueprint was there for a winner. He won several times there. His name is John McHugh. Someone who was cut from similar cloth of McHugh is the ideal candidate for this independent district.

They picked a RINO. A RINO who was supported by the NRCC with $900,000, who dropped out when the district polls sagged, and endorsed the democrat Bill Owens. This RINO did not fit the district. There was a Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman (who is a Republican), and he got a lot of the support from those who refused to back the RINO. Hoffman also had a major flaw. He doesn't live in the district. Hoffman was relatively unknown and got his name out by taking this campaign and nationalizing it. That's a big risk and it did not pay off. It normally does not in special elections. In New York, this led the ballot. No governor race. No senate race. Just this race in this rural New England like district. People, especially in rural areas, tend to be resentful of outsiders coming to their district and telling them who to vote for. This district, also has strong dairy interests and a military base. McHugh took care of that, and ran 20%+ ahead of McCain and Bush. Hoffman's a good guy, but he did not fit the district either. He didn't live there.

There was no primary. Scozzafava would never have won a primary. Hoffman (who ran as the Conservative party) might have won it one on one, but in a primary, there probably would have been other candidates who would have beaten Owens. One that fits the district. Picking candidates when there is no primary is a great responsibility in special elections. Blowing this embarrased the party. 5%. Ouch. That hurts. That's bad even in Detroit. Lesson 1. Pick a candidate for your district. Lesson 2, be very cautious about nationalizing elections and running against a candidate who emphasises local issues. Local usually wins.Bill Owens was smart and downplayed Obama and the national issues. It's rather easy to double down on that when the main threat does not live in the district.

Is all this a referendum on Obama? No. I think it is a referendum to a degree on big government statism and the left wing push by the incumbents and a referendum on national politics to an extent, but the local matters still rule the day.

Virginia had 8 years of democrat rule. It had enough in spades.
New Jersey has been dominated by democrats. They had enough of Corzine.
Rural New York didn't like outsiders pushing them, nor candidates which were not a dimes worth of difference between the republican and democrat. Two rebellions there.
Michigan 19th had enough of Granholm lackeys and also really liked Nofs.
Hamburg had enough of the drama.

Electoral College Math - Part 3 - South

Part 3 - South
Solid McCain - 103 votes
Lean McCain - 39 votes
Tossup - 40 votes

The three best areas for the GOP have typically been the South, Plains (Midwest and South), and Mountain West. That probably won't change much outside of a couple of outliers that are competitive.

I'll get some heat for this, but I included Texas in the South. I know Texas thinks itself as its own region and not the South or West.

Solid McCain:
Oklahoma (7 votes) - Democrats are locally competitive in Oklahoma, but not in the presidential race. Bush won every county in 2004, even the American Indian counties. In 2000, he lost those areas but still won big. He won 65-34% in 2004 and 60-38% in 2000. Bob Dole even won here easily. A July poll had McCain up by 29. This is as solid as it gets.

Texas (34 votes) - Bush's home state. He won 61-38 in 2004 and 59-38 in 2008. The latest poll in August (Rasmussen) had it a 10 point McCain lead. That's a significant drop from Bush's numbers, but I expect that with the homer vote gone. The best recent democrat run there was Dallas mayor Ron Kirk for Senate in 02, and he got 43%. I think 45% is the ceiling there for Obama, and that's if he runs an ace campaign there. There's not enough of a black vote statewide to win there (11%), and Austin's too small to carry the day.

Alabama (9 votes) - Alabama will vote for a southern democrat at times, but even then did not vote for Clinton in 92 or 96. Bush also won here twice going 62-37% in 2004 and 56-42% in 2000. Two July polls had McCain up by 13 (AEA) and 20 (Rasmussen), which is in between the 00 and 04 numbers. The black vote is significant, but more so in state elections. Alabama is 26% black, enough to make a dent, but not to win the election on their own.

Mississippi (6 votes) - Bush won here 59-40 in 2004 and 58-41 in 2000. It is 36% black, so more winnable than Alabama for the democrats, but the whites here are slightly more Republican than in Alabama (Alabama stayed democrat longer than much of the South). 48% of the white vote here is Evangelical, and the cultural issues, particulary on abortion, are a major factor in the vote. An August Rasmussen poll had McCain up 13 points.

Tennessee (13 votes) - I thought about putting Tennessee in the lean GOP column, but it really is solid now at the federal level. Gore lost here in 2000 despite being a homer. Clinton won twice here narrowly, but Bush won 51-47% in 2000 and 57-43% in 2004. The two latest polls in August expand the 2004 lead. Rasmussen has McCain up by 25 and Ayres McHenry has McCain up by 15. In simplistic terms, East Tennessee is very Republican (Knoxville area, Johnson City), West Tennessee Democrat (Memphis), and Middle Tennessee deciding the election (Nashville democrat, others mixed). Democrats are strong locally, but not as much federally. Harold Ford Jr gave it a good shot in 2006, but was stuck with 48%. Obama won't come close to Ford who was a homer (and who did get 40% of the white vote - far more than Obama will get there).

Kentucky (8 votes) - After the 06 disaster of Ernie Fletcher, I thought about putting this in the leaner category, but need to see more before doing so. Bush won 57-41% in 2000 and 60-40% in 2004. Kentucky has, like much of the South a Federal Democrat v State Democrat attitude. Louisville is slightly democrat, and Lexington is competitive (and likely democrat this year with University of Kentucky). Some of the eastern hills are still yellow dog democrat today, but they are balanced by other hills counties which are as Republican as the others are democrat. Example is Elliot County which went 70% for Kerry and 64% for Gore. Johnson County next door was 63% and 58% for Bush. Right next door and similar demographics. That is the history of the state that gave us both Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis. The biggest reason though I think for its Republican shift is Cincy. There's been a lot of growth in Northern Kentucky, and most of it is Republicans from the Cincy, Ohio area. Those counties there are all 65%+ Republican. The latest poll in August (Survey USA) has McCain up by 18. I'm not expecting that based on Fletcher and 2006, but I think this will be at least a 12 pt win for McCain.

West Virginia (5 votes) - Once among the most democrat states in the union voting even for Dukakis. I would have had this as a tossup if Hillary was the nominee. The Western Pennsylvania results, along with the rejection of Gore and John Kerry by a wide margin stopped me from putting this as a lean GOP. Bush won 56-43% in 2004 and 52-46% in 2000. Rasmussen in June gave McCain an 8 point lead. I'd like to see another poll here, but I don't see Obama selling here. He's the wrong type of Democrat, just like John Kerry.

South Carolina (8 votes) - Generally, the most Republican state in the South overall. It's a competitive state downticket, but more Republican downticket than much of the South which still has a lot of local democrats. Unlike most of the South, it didn't vote for George Wallace, but Nixon. Only Carter won here recently. Bush won 57-41% in 2000 and 58-41% in 2004. Two polls in July had McCain a lead. Research 2000 gave him a 13 point lead, and a democrat polling firm, Public policy polling, gave him a 6 point lead. South Carolina is 29% black, but the only democrat to win there statewide recently was Fritz Holling who was there for 30+ years. I see Obama doing better than Kerry, but not much.

Arkansas (6 votes) - Arkansas is somewhat similar to West Virginia with its strong downticket democrat roots still alive. Bush won twice, 51-46% in 2000 and 54-45% in 2004. If Hillary was on the ticket, this would be a lot more competitive. Obama's too culturally liberal to win here, like John Kerry. A 16% black population isn't enough to put him over the top either. Fast growing and economically conservative Northwest Arkansas is strongly Republican, and Little Rock, East Arkansas (even Kerry won) and South Arkansas is strongly democrat. I expect a lot of ticket splitting here once again.

Louisiana (9 votes) - I think democrats had a shot here, but blew it with an incompentent New Orelans mayor and incompetent governor who didn't run again. Blanco. Bobby Jindal, who should have won in 2003, won in 2007 and is by all accounts, proving himself to be one of the most capable governors there in a long time. Bush won 53-45% in 2000 and 57-42% in 2004, but throw those numbers out after Hurricane Katrina. The polls so far are going heavily McCain. Rasmussen in August shows an 18 pt lead, larger than even 2004. I'm not sure it will be that high, but I don't think it will be a contest.

Leans McCain
Georgia (15 votes) - Georgia is in most years probably the 2nd most Republican state in the south behind South Carolina. It also went 55-43% for Bush in 2000 and 58-41% Bush in 2004, so why am I showing this as leaning and not solid GOP? Two reasons. The latest poll (August, Rasmussen) has McCain up by 9, but earlier polls had it by 2 and 8, with the 8 pointer being a GOP poll. The other reason, more concerning to me as a Republican is the demographics. 35% minority, much of it metro Atlanta, and it is fast growing. This state should stay ours, but Obama has been working the area hard enough to where it needs to be watched. I think the formerly competitive South Georgia will go to McCain, along with the mountain areas outside of liberal Athens. I think whether the GOP wins depends on getting the normal exurbs vote, along with holding the line in Cobb and Gwinnett Counties.

North Carolina (15 votes) - This one scares me more. Obama has a very strong base here. Bush won it 56-43% in 2000 and 56-44% in 2004. It's 21% black, and also has a lot of college towns and Northeastern transplants (although many of the transplants vote Republican - making the Northeast more democrat). The Triangle portion is the strong base for the democrats. Orange County (Chapel Hill) which is like Ann Arbor, Durham, the home of Mike Nifong, and Wake County (Raleigh) which is the state capital. The Charlotte area is a swing area and important in 2008. Bush won it in 2000 and lost it in 2004. The Mountain areas are strongly republican outside of Asheville (College town). The eastern rural areas are competitive and will matter here. Polls show NC close. Five polls in August (pre-convention) show McCain leading from 2-6 points. The democrat poll has him at 3% and the republican poll has him at 6%.

Tossups:

Virginia (13 votes) - One of the most regional states in the South. It has shifted towards the democrats because of DC government workers to go along with a 20% black base. Signs were on the horizon as Bush only won 52-44% in 2000, although he improved to 54-45% in 2004. While Bush improved in 2004, Northern Virginia shifted more and more to Kerry. The bad news, and Obama know it - The rich areas there shifted more democrat. Alexandria and Arlington are 66% democrat now, and Fairfax strongly leans Democrat. Two exurban counties there, Loudoun and Prince William, are no longer gimmees. Outside of DC, the democrat areas are heavily minority like Richmond, Norfolk, and Hampton. Where Bush made up for a lot of his losses were in the Republican interior and the formerly democrat leaning Southwest area. He ran good enough for a slight edge in Tidewater, winning big in military friendly Virginia Beach and Chesapeake which are not gimme areas either. I think the biggest advantage for the GOP here is McCain and his military background. Northern Virginia will be a major challenge however, and that's why I have this as a tossup. Two September polls have McCain up 2. Rasmussen and Survey USA. A democrat poll in August had Obama up 2. It's even here for now.

Florida (27 votes) - Along with Ohio, this is THE must win for Republicans. Florida is a microcasm of the entire country. There is the "South" in the panhandle. There are military areas. There is New York South. There is the Midwest. There are black areas. There is Cuba, Haiti, Columbia, and every ethnic group you can think of here. It usually runs 1-2% to the right of the popular vote. Bush won it by 537 votes in 2000, and by a "landslide" of 52-47% in 2004 thanks to getting a million more votes than in 2000. In 06, there was some backlash against DC, but Charlie Crist won 52-45% for Jeb Bush's open gubenatorial seat. Florida can be divided into these sections

1. North Florida. This is the Republican base of Florida. It's heavily Southern and military. 75%+ of the vote on the panhandle is common. The democrats do well in Tallahassee (Florida State) and Gainesville (University of Florida), but the Republican take the rest of the area, including Duval County - Jacksonville.

2. I-4 Corridor/Central Florida - From Tampa/St Pete to Orlando to Daytona Beach down to the Space Coast. This is the area that decides most elections. Orlando leans Democrat. Tampa and St Pete itself leans democrat, but the burbs go Republican. The area itself there is close to 50/50. Daytona Beach leans Democrat, but the Space Coast leans Republican (Melbourne area). Lakeland leans Republican. The most Republican areas are north of Orlando.

3. Southwest Florida - The gulf coast south of Tampa was a strongly republican leaning area in 2004, but the vote there isn't a gimmee. They almost sent a democrat to congress in 2006. I'd keep an eye out there.

4. Gold Coast - The Democrat base. Palm Beach where people don't know how to read ballots (Buchanan and Gore look nothing alike), Broward County, and Miami-Dade County. Palm Beach and Broward are over 60% democrat each. Miami-Dade is closer because of the Cuban population, but the blacks, Jews, liberal whites, and others outvote the Cubans. It went 53% in 2004. Palm Beach and Broward areas are mostly black or "New York South" and usually vote that way. The democrats have a 350,000 vote margin from those three counties. Luckily, there are almost 8 million voters.

The latest polls for Florida are close. The only September poll (Rasmussen) shows a tie. The four August polls are as follows. Mason-Dixon - Obama by 1, Strategic Vision (R) - McCain by 7, Quinnipac - McCain by 4, Kitchen Group (D) - McCain by 3.

Translation - Florida will be close once again.