GOP picks up Congressional Seat in Brooklyn/Queens

The big news is that in New York's 9th District, Bob Turner defeated David Weprin. This is bigger than the hype for several reasons.

Remember the end of 2008. The GOP was supposedly dead in the water outside of the South. It was a "Southern" party which was "behind the times" to the new Obama age. The media said so....over and over again. We knew it was crap, but it takes results to get those idiots to shut their mouths.

In fact, here's a reminder of some of that crap:

November 2, 2009 - AP

Also, the party's power center is mostly limited to the South, the one region McCain dominated last fall; Obama won almost everywhere else — including making inroads in emerging powerhouse regions like the West, although Republicans still solidly control several lightly populated states in the area.

You still hear that trash about this National party. Here's actual truth.
2009 - GOP picked up races in New Jersey (Northeast/Mid Atlantic) and Virginia (won in Fairfax County - not southern in culture). Scott Brown won in Massachusetts. Many local wins.

National Review's Jim Gehraty caught this before 2010. I expanded on that November 24 - Republican Comeback in the Northeast. That was in reference mostly to the New York and Philly suburbs. Philly's burbs are probably the 2nd most democrat in the country overall among large city suburbs. New York is probably 3rd. 1st is Boston. All of those actually were key in some of the comeback races in 2009.

2010 - Pickups:
Senate - North Dakota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania. Mostly Midwest. Illinois is a shocker. Obama's home state.

Gubernatorial - Pickups in Wyoming, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maine. Dems gained California, Hawaii, and Minnesota. Spread out, but a pickup in Maine.

House pickups:
South (and Texas, Maryland, West Virginia - which are arguable) - 21
1 - Alabama
2 - Arkansas
1 - Georgia
1 - Louisiana
1 - Maryland
2 - Mississippi
1 - North Carolina
1 - South Carolina
3 - Tennessee
3 - Virginia
1 - West Virginia
3 - Texas

Florida - 4 (Florida is part Southern, part Midwest, part Northeast, and part Carribean)

West - 8
2 - Arizona
2 - Colorado
1 - Idaho
1 - Nevada
1 - New Mexico
1 - Washington

Midwest - 20
4 - Illinois
2 - Indiana
1 - Kansas
2 - Michigan
1 - Minnestota
1 - Missouri
1 - North Dakota
5 - Ohio
1 - South Dakota
2 - Wisconsin

Northeast - 14
2 - New Hampshire
1 - New Jersey
6 - New York
5 - Pennsylvania

The pickups are spread out. The GOP does well in the South, but not just the South. Five seats in New York, despite the special election blunders upstate.

I put all that in background because I want to smash that media driven "GOP is only a Southern Party" (followed by bad stereotypes perpetuated by that same media) bullshit. It's a NATIONAL party. Midwest, West, Northeast, and South.

One thing I respected about Howard Dean, for all his faults is that as DNC chair, he pushed his party to have a 50 state strategy. He didn't always do it well, but he had the right idea. Whether we are able to hang on to the Scott Brown or Bob Turner seats remain to be seen. Speaking of Bob Turner, he's the new Congressman from New York City. 9th District. Brooklyn and Queens.

Bob Turner defeated David Weprin for a New York City Congessional District that had no portion of Staten Island. This is big. New York City has a reputation as a major blue city. It's well deserved. Of the five Boroughs, only one voted for McCain or Bush. Heavily White Ethnic and Catholic Staten Island, the smallest of the Boroughs is competitive but usually votes Republican. Brooklyn and Queens are usually 70-80% dem. Bronx and Manhattan are 80-90% dem. That's referring to national elections Boroughwide. It's not uniform and there are competitive portions within that district, but they are usually outvoted by other areas in the district.

Until yesterday, there was only one congressional district in New York City that often voted Republican. That would be the 13th district which is based in Staten Island and also has four mostly Italian neighborhoods in Brooklyn. The 9th and its incarnations, has been democrat since the 1920's.

If you look at big city districts in general, only a few are represented with Republicans, and fewer have two. The Bucks County district in Pennsylvania has part of Philly. It's a swing district. Miami's Cuban areas have Republican reps. Jacksonville, Cincinnati (due to burbs), Columbus (Due to burbs), part of Indianapolis, Colorado Springs, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Wichita, small parts of Houston and Dallas, small part of San Diego, and parts of Phoenix. All those areas outside of Colorado Springs, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Columbus also have significant democrat congressional districts. Columbus and Cincinnati would if their districts were not split.

There are 12 districts which have part of New York City.
5th - Gary Ackerman (D), Queens/Long Island - 63% Gore/Kerry. 45% White, 24.6% Asian, 24% Latino

6th - Gregory Meeks (D), Queens - 89% Obama, 84%Kerry. 54% Black

7th - Joseph Crowley (D), Queens/Bronx - 79% Obama, 74% Kerry, 45% White, 36% Latino, 19% Black

8th - Jerrold Nadler (D), Manhattan/Brooklyn - 74% Obama, 72% Kerry - 75% White, 11% Asian, 11% Hispanic

9th - Bob Turner (R), Brooklyn/Queens - 55% Obama, 56% Kerry - 71% White, 15% Asian, 14% Latino

10th - Ed Towns (D), Brooklyn - 91% Obama, 86% Kerry - 63% Black

11th - Yvette Clark (D), Brooklyn - 91% Obama, 86% Kerry - 62% Black

12th - Nydia Velasquez (D), Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens - 86% Obama, 80% Kerry, 49% Latino, 40% White, 16% Asian 11% Black

13th - Michael Grimm (R), Staten Island/Brooklyn - 52% McCain, 56% Bush, 77% White, 11% Latino,

14th - Carolyn Maloney (D), Manhattan/Queens - 78% Obama, 74% Kerry. 73% White, 14% Latino, 11% Asian

15th - Charlie Rangel (D), Manhattan/Queens - 93% Obama, 90% Kerry. 48% Latino, 34% Black.

16th - Jose Serrano (D), Bronx - 95% Obama, 89% Kerry. 63% Latino, 36% Black

17th - Elliot Engle (D), Bronx/Rockland/Westchester - 72% Obama, 67% Kerry, 48% White, 32% Black, 20% Hispanic.


You have 6-9 minority seats. Crowley, Engel, and Ackerman's districts aren't I believe VRA seats, but are still under 50% white. The districts there have strange shapes because of the VRA rules. Meeks, Towns and Clark will have their seats protected. There's a lot of old school ethnic politics that still goes on in the Northeast, and New York City in particular. New York State is usually under split control in the state legislature, and deals are often made with the factions there. Traditionally it is upstate republicans vs City democrats, but that may be changing with the upcoming redistricting as democrats are making inroads upstate and republicans inroads in the city.

The 11th is Grimm's district. That's the Staten Island seat. It also has some largely Italian areas of Brooklyn that are competitive. It borders the 9th. The 8th is Manhattan based seat that has a mix of different areas in Brooklyn, from democrat "Hipster" areas, to Orthodox Jewish and Italian areas. Crowley's district, the 7th borders the 9th on the other side. There's been some blending of the 9th and 7th districts with redistricting.

The 9th covers these areas.

Queens - Maspeth, Fresh Meadows, Glendale, Howard Beach, Kew Gardens, Kew Gardens Hills, Middle Village, Forest Hills, Ozone Park, Ridgewood, Rego Park, Rockaway Beach, and Woodhaven.
Brooklyn - Flatlands, Gerritsen Beach, Marine Park, Midwood, Mill Basin and Sheepshead Bay.

It has a reputation as the "Brooklyn Jewish District" because it was Weiner and before that Chuck Schumer's. That's only partially true. Most of the district is actually in Queens. The district is 40% Jewish however, and Brooklyn has a large Orthodox population in the district. There's also significant Asian, Italian, and Irish, as well as Jewish populations there. There is a large Orthodox population in the Brooklyn section however. In 2008, Turner ran almost 50/50 in Brooklyn against Anthony Weiner. Queens was where Weiner actually whipped Turner's ass and winning the district with 60% of the vote. Downticket, Weiner usually won between 60-70%, normal for incumbents against most opponents. Turner did well in 2010, holding Weiner to 60%. That was before Weiner became famous for being a Weenie.

I'm trying to find official numbers for the district and the neighborhoods, but last I've heard, it was about 67% Turner in Brooklyn, and 52-48 Weiprin in Queens. 48% in an area Weiner won by 30pts is good enough for the GOP to win because it means it is a wipeout in Brooklyn. If it was 67% in Brooklyn, he won big both in the Jewish and Irish/Italian areas. In Queens, I'm interested in seeing where Turner won and where he lost.

Regardless of anything, this is bad for the dems. While this was a seat democrat since the 1920's, more significantly, this district went for Obama, Kerry, Gore (66%), and Clinton. This was not some traditional district trending in a direction to the point of being on borrowed time. It has trended less democrat, but 55% was the minimum number for the dems, especially with the Queens portion of the district.

Why did they lose it?

1. Special elections are always tricky. Turnout changes.

2. Poor candidate. David Weprin was the nominee because Joe Crowley, basically your stereotypical urban boss politician, thought it would be a good idea. Weprin voted for gay marriage, while claiming to be an Orthodox Jew. Now I'm not Jewish, so I'm not going to comment except that he didn't sell in the Brooklyn Orthodox areas against an Irish Catholic, for whatever reason. He also didn't live in the district. He was in the 5th district. (Akerman) From what I've heard, he came off like a typical politician and panderer. Good candidates can overcome bad leads at the top of the ticket outside of a 2008 or 2010 style wave election.

3. Good candidates. Bob Turner. Bob Turner won. He held the margin in Queens down and won big in Brooklyn. He didn't do terrible in 2010, but he built on 2010 and finished with the win. He wasn't a RINO either. I don't expect him to be Mike Pence or Jim DeMint, but he's not Mike Bloomberg either. Turner gave the people there a real choice.

4. Crossovers. Ed Koch and Dov Hikind were democrats supporting Turner. Koch wanted to repudiate Obama for his Middle Eastern policies. Turner benefited from that.

5. Last but not least, the economy. This district isn't Midtown Manhattan or the Upper East Side. This isn't a trust fund Hipster District in gentrification parts of Williamsburg that the white liberals love. This is a largely Middle Class and Working Class white ethnic district with a few rich and poor areas. This is the type of district that Scott Brown targeted in his Massachusetts senate race. The current economy isn't great there in this district either. The economy and jobs is the number one factor every election.

With Redistricting (and split control), I don't know what will happen to this district. Two districts will be eliminated, probably one GOP and one dem. One of them will have to be upstate. The original plan was for the democrat to be Wiener (with Weprin as a placeholder seat). It'll be interesting to see what happens to this seat. Will Turner drop some of the Queens portion to Crowley for the rest of the Orthodox areas in Brooklyn or Grimm's Italian precincts?

At worst, this gives the GOP momentum and another house seat for a year. It also shows, once again, that the GOP can compete and win not just areas outside the South but in the Northeast and in urban areas to boot.

At best, this will be the start of taking over inner ring suburbs and even some majority non-Hipster white urban districts.

Republican comeback in the Northeast?

While the big story for 2009 was the takeover of the governor's mansion in New Jersey and Virginia, there's more good news for the GOP, and the disasters of 06 and 08.

2006 and 2008 was a disaster for the GOP. Republicans were wiped out in much of the country during those two election cycles with unpopular incumbents and struggling state and local parties. It was very tough in the Northeast and Midwest, for different reasons. In Ohio, you had Taft. Here in Michigan, it was the economy and "outsourcing" tag. Indiana had their own issues. Illinois is Obama's home state. Minnesota and Wisconsin have long held democrat leanings.

Michigan's State Senate District 19 is a bellwether district covering Calhoun and most of Jackson Counties. It voted for Granholm twice, Bush twice, and Obama.

I found this interesting National Review article by Jim Geraghty.. They looked at some of the recent results in suburban northeastern counties. Keep in mind that most of those are much more liberal than the two big suburban counties here (Oakland and Macomb).

Consider these six numbers: 62, 53, 54, 60, 60, 53.

Those numbers are the percentage of voters who supported Barack Obama last year in Westchester and Nassau Counties in New York, Bergen and Middlesex Counties in New Jersey, Fairfax County in Virginia, and Bucks County in Pennsylvania, respectively.

Now, here are the percentages of the vote that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic candidates got in each of those counties this year: 43, 48, 48, 44, 49, 45.

.........

But as the stack of 2009’s defeated Democrats piles up to include Westchester county executive Andrew Spano, Nassau county executive Tom Suozzi (probably), and state supreme court nominee Jack Panella in Pennsylvania, with a roughly proportional slide in the Democrats’ share of the vote, perhaps that party’s problems go well beyond the flaws of any individual candidate. Perhaps the suburbs of the northeast and Mid-Atlantic states are looking at the party and concluding, to adapt a recurring phrase from Obama’s days as a candidate, “This is not the Democratic party I knew.”

Westchester County? Ouch. Nassau? Ouch. Bucks County? Ouch. Those have recently been almost base counties at the top of the ticket. Westchester and Nassau are base counties across the board. Bucks will swing at times, but still has dem leanings.

After 2008, the declarations were blunt: Obama won 50 percent of suburban voters, the most by a Democrat since exit polling began in 1972. Democrats benefited from increased turnout among young voters and African-Americans, but the suburban shift from Kerry’s modest 47 percent was the real sign that they were winning over skeptics.

Kerry ran better than Gore in SOME suburbs (Fairfax, Bucks), and the same or worse than Gore in others (NYC suburbs, Oakland, Macomb). Obama ran better than both Gore and Kerry there. The article then mentions a poll with some of the shift since 08 election, as the memory of Bush goes back into the distance.

Page two of the article though really says something. Keep in mind, this is the Northeast, and not the Midwest here.

What is crystallizing in the northeast is voters’ incredulity that government at every level should be demanding more while delivering less at a time when people feel strapped and anxious about their futures. Almost all voters feel an ever-sharper pinch from the economic downturn, but they look at government, from their county seat to Washington, and find little or no sign of frugality or careful budgeting. There was also a time when conventional wisdom dictated that a pro-life Republican could not win a race in the northeast. Here are three candidates who suggest a lot of what we know about politics in the northeast is wrong:

The northeast is the most pro-government area of the country outside of California. It is the home of the rich white regressive (so called progressive) democrat. They have a lot of influence up that way. However, the swing voters are not buying what is sold anymore. I think there's several reasons for that, most importantly is Bush gone and Obama being just another politician not living to the hype.

Nassau County:

Republican challenger Ed Mangano is, as of this writing, not quite the next Nassau county executive. But he leads Tom Suozzi by 353 votes after a weekend of absentee and affidavit ballot counting, a process of counting that is expected to extend past the Thanksgiving holiday.

A county-executive race doesn’t dominate the headlines the way a presidential race does, but Suozzi entered this race the heavy favorite. In a county with more registered Democrats than Republicans, in a state where the GOP is supposed to be dead, an incumbent with a huge fundraising advantage ought to be able to win in his sleep. Perhaps that is a good way of describing what Suozzi attempted; he finished the race with perhaps $2 million in his campaign war chest unspent.

Nassau County is one of the two Long Island NY Counties. It's the more democrat of the two (Suffolk is the other). It went 53.84% for Obama, 52.25% for Kerry, 57.93% for Gore, 55.7% for Clinton 96, 46.4% for Clinton in 92.

Senate:
Hillary Clinton 06 - 60.47%
Charles Schumer 04 - 66.45%
Hillary Clinton 00 - 45.15% (Rick Lazio was from Long Island and won there, and Hillary carpetbagged)
Charles Schumer 98 - 46.5% (Al D'Amato was from Long Island and won there)

Governor:
Elliot Spitzer 06 - 64.88%

Nassau can sometimes be competitive though. The GOP has a congressional district still based in Nassau (Peter King), although the democrats have two districts there, one of which is winnable in a very good year. Part of the problems on Long Island were local scandals and a sweep of the county offices. If that's straightened out, there is a good chance for a comeback, at least of competitiveness.

Westchester County is much more democrat, and this was the real big upset. Westchester County is just north of the Bronx. Yonkers, White Plains, and Chappaqua, where the Clintons now live.

Rob Astorino is supposed to be the kind of Republican candidate who can’t win in the northeast anymore. He ran a fairly explicit campaign emphasizing fiscal conservatism, depicting the county’s management as wasteful, bureaucratic, inefficient, corrupt, and out of touch. He hammered his rival, telling voters that the incumbent county executive, Andy Spano, “raised your taxes almost 60 percent in the last seven years alone. Mr. Spano has ballooned the annual budget by $1 billion in the past 12 years, from $800 million to $1.8 billion per year. He spends more than 87 nations do, and you pay for it.” Intriguingly, while the pro-life Astorino didn’t put his faith or social views front and center, his conservative bona fides are impeccable: He is a radio host and program director for the Catholic Channel on Sirius Satellite Radio and hosts a Thursday-night program with Cardinal Edward Egan, the former archbishop of New York.

Astorino shellacked the three-term Democrat, 57 percent to 43 percent, in a county where Democrats have nearly a 2-to-1 advantage in voter registration. This is a county where Al Gore and John Kerry carried 58 percent of the vote, the county Bill and Hillary Clinton call home. It may be a bit self-serving, but Spano contends that his defeat reflects voters’ anger at Democrats at the state and national level. “It has nothing to do with me, as far as I’m concerned,” he told the New York Times. “They’re mad at Albany, and Washington.”

Westchester went 63.36% for Obama, 58.1% for Kerry, 58.63% for Gore, 56.9% for Clinton 96, and 48.6% for Clinton in 92.

Senate:
Hillary Clinton 06 - 66.50%
Charles Schumer 04 - 70.48%
Hillary Clinton 00 - 51.09%
Charles Schumer 98 - 54.5%

Governor:
Elliot Spitzer 06 - 69%

The two districts that cover Westchester are both democrat (one based, one partial), although one of them had been republican until 2006 due to other counties in that district. The other has been democrat since 1988. Westchester is about as Democrat as Ingham County (Lansing) here at home. It's not a county that republicans are supposed to win.

Pennsylvania is a more competitive state than New York, but has gone democrat recently, largely in part to the Philly Suburbs swinging left and having more population than the Pittsburgh suburbs which have swung independent. It was close in 04, but not in 02, 06 and 08 with Ed Rendell and the Philly area machine. Some good news came in a Supreme Court race. Supreme Court is a partisan race in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania’s supreme court race pitting Republican Joan Orie Melvin against Democrat Jack Panella didn’t attract much national attention; while there was plenty of television advertising, it had two relatively unknown candidates, and the dominant issues of Washington were largely non-factors. The Democrat began with significant advantages: The state currently has 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and Panella’s campaign raised $2.35 million, outdoing Melvin’s by almost 3-1, according to statistics compiled by an advocacy group, Pennsylvanians for Modern Courts.

Instead, Melvin won 53 percent to 46 percent, and won every suburban county around Philadelphia except Montgomery, which the Democrat carried by 1.4 percent. While the Democrat Panella garnered 70 percent of the vote in Philadelphia, traditionally the engine that drives Democratic wins in statewide races, the city had a miserable turnout of 12 percent.

That says something. Right now, the GOP only has one and 3/4 districts there. Jim Gerlach has a 50/50 district based in Chester County (and has part of Berks, Leigh, and Montgomery County where he loses). Charlie Dent has a Leigh valley based district that has a small part of Montgomery County. Joe Pitts has a heavy GOP leaning district with Lancaster County and part of Berks and Chester Counties.

2008:
Montgomery County - 60% Obama
Delaware County - 60% Obama
Bucks County - 53.74% Obama
Chester County - 54% Obama
Berks County - 53.76% Obama
Lancaster County - 55.21% McCain

2004:
Montgomery County - 55.57% Kerry
Delaware County - 57.15% Kerry
Bucks County - 51.10% Kerry
Chester County - 52% Bush
Berks County - 52.97% Bush
Lancaster County - 65.80% Bush

2000:
Montgomery County - 53.54% Gore
Delaware County - 54.36% Gore
Bucks County - 50.46% Gore
Chester County - 53.33% Bush
Berks County - 52.68% Bush
Lancaster County - 66.09% Bush

For President, the GOP last won Bucks in 1992, and last won Montgomery and Delaware Counties in 1988. The irony is that Dukakis almost won Pennsylvania in 1988 due to winning big in Western PA. Most of those counties for Dukakis went for McCain and GW Bush.

Geraghty makes his point here.

While these six counties have their differences, they are all classically suburban and among the wealthiest in the nation. There are 3,141 counties in the United States; ranked by median household income, Nassau ranks 12th highest nationally, Westchester ranks 47th, Bucks ranks 76th. Of the other counties mentioned earlier, Fairfax County ranks 2nd; Bergen ranks 28th, Middlesex ranks 68th. A wholesale rejection in the varied races of 2009 suggests that voters in these places are changing what they think when they hear the word “Democrat.” A year ago, it represented change from a wearying and disappointing Bush presidency; today it represents runaway spending, an arrogant dismissal of cries of over-taxation, and a fundamental disconnect from the daily life and problems of constituents.

After the 2008 election, Robert Lang, a demographer at Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute in Alexandria, scoffed to the Washington Post, “The Obama campaign clearly understands where the battleground of this election was. Do [the Republicans] have the basic math skills to sit with an Excel spreadsheet and figure out where the growth is, or are they out of their minds?”

The good thing about 09 is that the talking heads who say the GOP is just a southern party can sit down and shut up. I said a few years back about the special elections where the GOP lost three in a row (either 05 or 07). One doesn't mean much. Two has my guard up. Losing three in row is a real problem.

Here's the opposite. Winning Virginia is important, especially Fairfax County which is a "non-Southern" part of Virginia at least in culture. That stopped the bleeding. Winning in New Jersey shows some offense. Winning the Philly burbs and some of the New York suburbs now is sending a message. Add the 19th district here at home for another swing district with a much different cultural area. Several distinct areas went GOP.

That doesn't mean that we're back. We're not. What it does mean is that the bleeding has largely been stopped for now. There's still a lot of work to be done with 2010. Most important in 2010 is the gubenatorial races and state legislatures. Why? They draw the boundaries in most states. While I don't care for the redistricting decision making process, it is what it is, and knowing the rules of the game is most important. Needless to say, for that reason alone, three republicans will automatically get my vote. The nominees for governor, state senate, and state rep.

The 09 elections were hopefully the beginning or a nationwide comeback against the radical leftist policies of Mr. Obama, Rahm Emmanuel, Mr. Reid, and Ms Pelosi.

The races outside of Michigan

Outside of Michigan, we had several races out there.

Virginia was a blowout. Straight down the line.

Bob McDonnell is a strong conservative. He's no liberal, not even a moderate. However, he won 59%-41% in a state that has two democrat senators, went for Obama, and twice for democrat governors. The GOP needs to study how he won. It could be a very good template for running elections.

It wasn't just conservatives areas McDonnell won. McDonnell won almost all areas in liberal Northern Virginia. He lost Arlington and Alexandria which is the most liberal part of the state, but he won Fairfax County, which voted for John Kerry. He won the outer suburban and competitive counties of Loudoun and Prince William. In central Virginia, he even won Albemarle county which surrounds Charlottesville, which is the Ann Arbor of Virginia. (Cities are like their own counties in Virginia)

The Lt Governor, Bolling, won 56%-44%. He didn't win Fairfax County, but it was still a solid win. He got 48% in Fairfax which is more than good enough to win statewide.

The Attorney General candidate, Cuccinelli, was arguably the most conservative. He won 57-42%  He ran even with Bolling in Northern Virginia and did well downstate as well.

I don't know how many incumbent delegates lost, but barring recounts the GOP took races by 2% in Va Beach,1% in Lynchburg, 1% in Fairfax County, 1% in Prince William, 5% in Fairfax and Loudoun. There was probably some coattails there. Some were saved from defeat, or picked up democrat seats due to that. They didn't get all the close ones, but they got a lot of them.

For the state house/senate special elections, I don't know much about most of the districts.

Alabama had a special election for their state house. The last democrat won with 60%. The open seat went 53% democrat.

Georgia races:
State Senate 1 - Republican unopposed except by another Republican (They use the Southern runoff system)
State House 75 - Dems 60%, GOP 40%  - Clayton County, which is 70%+ democrat
State House 139 - All GOP running
State House 141 - Independent and Democrat will run off. Two Republicans split vote. One dem ran.
State House 159 - All GOP running

Missouri House 73 - Went Democrat. 60%
New Jersey was the big exclaimation point. Chris Christie, a moderate (true moderate, not liberal) Republican defeated incumbent limosine leftist and Goldman Sachs slappy Jon Corzine in a close election. 49% for Christie, and 45% for incumbent Corzine. I didn't see a lot of incuumbents defeated there for state assembly, but some open seats went GOP as well.

Couldn't find anything in New Hampshire 11th.

South Carolina 48th - 72% Republican win.

Washington State Races
9th District - 55%-45% Republican  (Eastern Washington)
15th District (Yakima) - 69%-30% Republican
16th District (Walla Walla) - 58%-42% Republican
California's 10th District stayed democrat. 15% lead or so last I saw. John Kerry and Obama both won the district by 20%

And then there's the aberration and major defeat. New York 23.

First off, whoever the GOP county chairs are that picked the 5%'er. DeDe Scozzafava, need to be relieved of their duty. They FUBARED.  Job number one for special elections that should be won is this. Pick a candidate that fits the district. What is worst of all about this is that the blueprint was there for a winner. He won several times there. His name is John McHugh. Someone who was cut from similar cloth of McHugh is the ideal candidate for this independent district.

They picked a RINO. A RINO who was supported by the NRCC with $900,000, who dropped out when the district polls sagged, and endorsed the democrat Bill Owens. This RINO did not fit the district. There was a Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman (who is a Republican), and he got a lot of the support from those who refused to back the RINO. Hoffman also had a major flaw. He doesn't live in the district. Hoffman was relatively unknown and got his name out by taking this campaign and nationalizing it. That's a big risk and it did not pay off. It normally does not in special elections. In New York, this led the ballot. No governor race. No senate race. Just this race in this rural New England like district. People, especially in rural areas, tend to be resentful of outsiders coming to their district and telling them who to vote for. This district, also has strong dairy interests and a military base. McHugh took care of that, and ran 20%+ ahead of McCain and Bush. Hoffman's a good guy, but he did not fit the district either. He didn't live there.

There was no primary. Scozzafava would never have won a primary. Hoffman (who ran as the Conservative party) might have won it one on one, but in a primary, there probably would have been other candidates who would have beaten Owens. One that fits the district. Picking candidates when there is no primary is a great responsibility in special elections. Blowing this embarrased the party. 5%. Ouch. That hurts. That's bad even in Detroit. Lesson 1. Pick a candidate for your district. Lesson 2, be very cautious about nationalizing elections and running against a candidate who emphasises local issues. Local usually wins.Bill Owens was smart and downplayed Obama and the national issues. It's rather easy to double down on that when the main threat does not live in the district.

Is all this a referendum on Obama? No. I think it is a referendum to a degree on big government statism and the left wing push by the incumbents and a referendum on national politics to an extent, but the local matters still rule the day.

Virginia had 8 years of democrat rule. It had enough in spades.
New Jersey has been dominated by democrats. They had enough of Corzine.
Rural New York didn't like outsiders pushing them, nor candidates which were not a dimes worth of difference between the republican and democrat. Two rebellions there.
Michigan 19th had enough of Granholm lackeys and also really liked Nofs.
Hamburg had enough of the drama.

Biased tripe in the 3rd most leftist media outlet

If I want to find a good left wing biased media source, I can always count on MSNBC with that little wuss Keith Olberman, The New York Slimes, or the standard setters in the media, the AP/Associated Press. Those three set the standards of leftism.

Normally, I don't even comment on it anymore because it is what it is. They don't even pretend to hide it anymore. It's like reading the original Kevins aka "Communications Guru" stories.

Liz Sidoti and the AP already prepared the spin in case of Republican win tomorrow. I don't count chickens before they hatch, so we'll wait and see what actually does happen.AP article

WASHINGTON – For Republicans, an election win of any size Tuesday would be a blessing. But victories in Virginia, New Jersey or elsewhere won't erase enormous obstacles the party faces heading into a 2010 midterm election year when control of Congress and statehouses from coast to coast will be up for grabs.
It's been a tough few years for the GOP. The party lost control of Congress in 2006 and then lost the White House in 2008 with three traditional Republican states — Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia — abandoning the party.
So even if political winds start blowing harder behind them and even if they can capitalize on Democratic missteps, Republicans still will have a long way to go over the next year because of their party's own fundamental problems — divisions over the path forward, the lack of a national leader and a shrinking base in a changing nation.
The GOP would overcome none of those hurdles should Republican Bob McDonnell win the Virginia governor's race, Chris Christie emerge victorious in the New Jersey governor's contest, or conservative Doug Hoffman triumph in a hotly contested special congressional election in upstate New York.

That's a crock of Bullshit.Wins there, the 19th senate district here at home, and the other special elections would be a check on Obama's power, Granholm's power, or the other state districts. It also is something the GOP could brag about.Virginia and New Jersey are NOT republican states. Virginia, despite its reputation for being Republican, has long been competitive. Chuck Robb was a senator there in the 80's long before Jim Webb and Mark Warner. Doug Wilder won there long before Mark Warner. New Jersey has long been democrat, but has a few republicans in power like Tom Kean and Christie Whitman. Winning in those states is a big deal, as was losing them. The 23rd district is a swing district, but and the GOP may "win" (Hoffman is a Republican) despite the clustermuck and bone headed decisions of leadership.

Wins there wouldn't mean we're back, but it is a start. A good start and something to build on, and a starting point of what kind of candidates that should run depending on the districts.

There's more.

"It's going to be a difficult road to walk, to work with relatively new entrants into the political system and to work with them to show them that, by and large, we are the party who represents their interests," House Republican leader John Boehner told CNN on Sunday, arguing that there's "a political rebellion" taking place in the country.
Others are more blunt.
"Right now there's no central Republican leader to turn to, and there's no central Republican message," conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh told Fox News on Sunday. "The Republican message is sort of muddied. What do they stand for? Right now it's opposition to Obama."
A debate is waging over whether that's enough — or whether the party has to be for something, anything really, to be able to claw its way back to the top. Similar hand-wringing happened in the GOP ahead of the 1994 midterms. Just weeks before those elections, Republicans came up with the Contract with America — and ended up taking control of Congress.

Boehner was one of the screw-ups when he backed the bailout. Remember his talk about the "crap sandwich?" This political rebellion that he talked about is against crap sandwiches like that which you supported, and which Obama is pushing right now with 1800 page (anything 1800 pages is bad) health care bills that the Congressional Budget Office is estimating at a trillion bucks. If the bailout was a crap sandwich, which it was, why vote for it? This is why so many conservatives have become independents and have no loyalty to the GOP. They've had enough with both parties and are dropping out, which showed in the 2008 massacre.

There does need to be a return to the Contract with America. I've been saying that for years. That aside, Rush's quote about no central leader sounds like a complaint, but I don't see it as a bad thing. The problem with most people is that we look for leaders. Don't look for leaders. Be the leader. Conservatives and their close libertarian cousins are independent thinkers and that is a big reason why there's always infighting of some sort. The premise at the core of the matter is generally less government and more freedom. Nobody likes to be dictated too, and that will initiate a conflict.

Here's some major league bullshit.

Heading into the 2010 elections, the GOP also faces a very real split between conservatives who want to focus on social issues — which tend to work best during peaceful, prosperous times — and the rest of the party, which generally wants a broader vision, particularly given recession.
Proof of a divide is in the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District. Potential 2012 presidential hopefuls trying to solidify their conservative credentials, Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty, endorsed Hoffman, a conservative third-party upstart, over the GOP-chosen candidate, moderate Dierdre Scozzafava. Badly trailing in polls, she ended up dropping out and — in a slap at the GOP — endorsing Democrat Bill Owens

First off, Scozzafava is no moderate. John McHugh, who vacated the seat was more of a moderate (Socially conservative, economics in the middle). Scozzafava is a leftist. She's tied to Acorn through one of the third parties in New York, the "Working Families" Party. She's supportive of card checks, eliminating secret ballots with unions. She was endorsed by the teacher's union and the leader of Daily Kos, an extremely far leftist. In addition, she supported the stimulus packages. Now, I didn't even get to the social issues. Pro-abortion (dealbreaker) and supportive of gay marriage (don't agree with it, but not a dealbreaker issue with me). She is pro-gun, so there's one issue where she's mainstream. Take all of that combined, and you have a "Republican" to the left of most democrats, and not a dimes worth of difference between her and Bill Owens. She even endorsed Owens after dropping out of the race, which she had no reason to do outside of the fact that her own district rejected her.


Secondly, social issues aren't the big issue here. The AP has their head up their arses with this line of thought. The big issue is Obama's health care plan, the stimulus package, card check, ACORN, and fiscal leftism. Too much spending. More taxes. Small government. That's the big issue. The same thing is going on in the Florida primary between grass roots conservative Marco Rubio and establishment supported and stimulus package supporting Charlie Crist.

Adding to the party's woes: No one — or rather everyone — is speaking for the GOP.
Fiery talk show hosts like Limbaugh and Glenn Beck have become the angry white face of the party, filling a vacuum created by Bush's departure as the its standard-bearer and the lack of one single person to emerge as its next generation leader.

This site needs a eye-rolling icon picture for that pile of donkey crap. There's no elected position called spokesman for the GOP. Limbaugh speaks for himself. Beck speaks for himself. I speak for myself. That's it. Here in Michigan, we have elections and vote for candidates who speak for themselves. I don't worry about "central leader" because I'm nobody's follower. Got that AP. We vote for candidates. Want me to spell it out for you?

Also, the party's power center is mostly limited to the South, the one region McCain dominated last fall; Obama won almost everywhere else — including making inroads in emerging powerhouse regions like the West, although Republicans still solidly control several lightly populated states in the area.

Uhhhhhhhh.....we'll find out more on that tomorrow. Tomorrows big congressional race....New York. Also heavily Democrat New Jersey is up for grabs tomorrow. Virginia, which is mostly southern, but not the DC burbs (at least in culture) is up for election tomorrow too. The polls show it even in Fairfax County of all places. 08's over. Bush is off the ballot. Obama has shown himself to be just another politician who says one thing and does another.

And demographic, cultural and, perhaps, economic changes in America tilt in the Democrats' favor. Consider that Hispanics, a part of the Democratic base, are the nation's fastest growing minority group. Consider that more states than ever are permitting same-sex unions; Maine will vote Tuesday on whether to allow gay marriage. Consider that the emerging new industry — so-called "green jobs" — is focused on the environment, a core Democratic issue.

Right now in this economy, jobs period, green or not, is the big issue, and the dems are delivering jack and squat. Gay marriage? That's been on ballots for years. Nothing new. The gay obsessed media goes ape over it though. The gun issue has moved to the right more and more. Abortion is STILL moving more to the right than it was. Those are bigger than the gay issue. 

Still, Republicans sense opportunity — at least in the short term. The bloom is off the Obama rose, and the public is giving the Democratic-controlled Congress low ratings.
Economists say the recession is over but jobs aren't reappearing and unemployment is still expected to hit 10 percent. The war in Afghanistan continues, and the public is deeply divided over it. Obama's expansion of government and budget-busting spending isn't sitting well with most Americans. And independents are tilting away from Democrats.

If the jobs aren't appearing, than the recession is NOT over. It may be "technically" over in the minds of the economists, but nobody at home gives a damn about what they say. They care about working. Period.

On another note, I should mention a dark horse race I forgot to mention earlier. California Congressional district 10. The democrat is expected to win big here, because of the district. I forgot about it, and unfortunately, the GOP candidate here is on his own. David Harmer is facing Lt Governor John Garamendi. The district was last held by Ellen Tauscher. It's a San Francisco Bay area district and John Kerry won it by 20%, and Gore by 14%. It covers parts of Contra Costa, Solano, and Alameda Counties. If this one goes Republican, I'll be shocked. Garemendi is up in the polls by 10%, but this is a special election. If the GOP base goes out and the dems take it for granted, there will be a possible upset. If Garemendi works like it's too close for his liking, he'll win.

Clustermuck in upstate New York

There's a special election coming up in upstate New York, Congressional district 23. It's a close district, but has gone republican for congress for a long time. Moderate incumbent John McHugh left to take a job as secretary of the Army.

The special election in New York has no primary. That was a problem here. What happened was County Party Chairmen Committees handpicked the candidates. That's a big responsibility and one that should not be taken lightly.

Now right now, there is not a lot of tolerance on the right for fiscal liberals. I know upstate NY is a moderate area, and I would not be balking at a moderate being picked. Unfortunately, the republican picked was possibly most liberal of the three candidates, including the democrat.

Dede Scozzafava was endorsed by Daily Kos. She is pro-abortion, and pro-gay marriage. If she was fiscal conservative and social liberal, there probably would have been some balking not the same. She ran on the "Working Families" line in some state races. (NY can have people run under multiple parties). That party is tied to ACORN through their executive director Bertha Lewis. Scozzafava supported Obama's stimulus package, and has supported tax increases and card check. What's the difference between her and the democrat Bill Owens? Nothing. In fact, there are rumors about her switching parties which she considered in the past. Talk about being dealbreakers. 

Many Republicans, including more moderate ones, have refused to support Scozzavava. As moderate Mary Matalin said in Politico

“We can disagree or compromise on marginal issues, but not freedom-quashing, government-grasping ones, like tax increases, anti-democratic card check, etc. Holding on to a seat won on those principles is worse than losing it,” she said. “Conversely, losing seats to articulate, conservative Democrats has proved to be the best defensive line holding back Obama’s expansive ambitions.”

-----------

Now liberal republicans (providing they aren't rumored party switchers) would have been less of a problem awhile back. While some recent polls have Republicans beating democrats on a generic ballot and winning big with independent voters, the same polls also have only 20% of the population self-identifying as republicans. The people identifying as Conservatives have not changed much in years. The problem is that we are coming off of four years of big government Republicanism from 2002 to 2006, followed by big government bipartisanship from 06 to 08. Bush supported big government, and Obama supports big government on steroids. Both supported the banks bailout, which was the straw that broke the camel's back. We have a nearly 12 trillion deficit and the democrat senate wants to raise the debt ceiling even higher. GOP leadership in Washington hasn't shown that they gotten it yet. STOP SPENDING MONEY. When given the choice between democrat lite and democrats, people are going to vote for the real thing.

While there needs to be a big tent, we can not dillute the brands so much that there isn't a dimes worth of difference between the two parties. There needs to at least be basic principles of less government and more freedom. I understand that you can't run a Tom Coburn clone in the NY-23 district. It's rural and small city New England in character. Coburn doesn't sell there. However, polling shows that Scozzafava isn't selling either....in NY-23. She's being rejected THERE, not in Oklahoma. The democrat is currently leading with under 40% and 25% are breaking to the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, who is also a republican, but did not have the chance to run in a primary that didn't exist. He's a businessman and not a professional politician (and the only pro-life candidate). 

In a three way race, a candidate can win with 34% if things break right, which they may very well do. If fiscal conservatives want to send a message, one will be given with a Scozzafava loss. A bigger one will be given with a win by Doug Hoffman. Doug's website is here

I don't usually support 3rd party candidates anymore for any major office. I usually vote for one in a minor office every election, often the university trustees section. That's it. Republicans can usually make their choice in primaries. A primary would have avoided this. Scozzafava would never get past a Republican primary for Congress, not even in New York City. Fiscal liberalism needs to be given the heave ho in the Republican Party if we expect congress to flip.

One last point. Scozzafava was not picked in a primary but by a committee of local county leadership there. That's often what happens in vacancies for township offices. It shows the importance of good county party leadership, and the responsibility given to the party leadership to pick good candidates who can win.

Here in Livingston County, Michigan, we may very well have to have our county party leadership make that decision in the clustermuck known as Hamburg Township if Matt Skiba is recalled (which I expect to happen). That one won't be easy, and I hope the LCGOP does things the right way to try and remedy the embarrassing shenanigans going on there in my county and by those running under the R banner (but whom I never see at GOP events).

So, how do you avoid a Scozzafava situation? It's simple. Make sure you have good leadership on county, district, and state levels of the GOP. Precinct delegates elect all of the above. It all comes back to us.

Plaxico Burress - Two years in prison. You have to be kidding me.

Two years in prison. That's what former Spartan and Giants Wide Receiver Plaxico Burress got for the infamous incident where he shot himself in the leg at the bar. He plea bargained to that after facing 31/2 to 4 years if he was convicted in New York City on firearms charges. From the AP

NEW YORK (AP)—Former Super Bowl star Plaxico Burress(notes) was sentenced Tuesday to two years in prison after accidentally shooting himself in the thigh at a nightclub and later reaching a plea deal on weapons charges.

The former New York Giants star tearfully told his family goodbye as he surrendered to begin his prison stint for attempted criminal possession of a weapon.

Burress was indicted on two counts of weapon possession and one count of reckless endangerment and pleaded guilty Aug. 20. He had faced a minimum sentence of 3 1/2 years on those charges if convicted at trial. He pleaded to the lesser charge and agreed to the two-year term.

With time off for good behavior, Burress likely will serve 20 months. He will be monitored an additional two years after he is freed from prison, which could come as early as the spring of 2011.

Former Super Bowl star Plaxico Burress(notes) carries his son, Elijah, as he arrives at Manhattan criminal court for his sentencing ,Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009, in New York. Burress was sentenced to two years in prison for possessing a gun at a night club.

The Giants released Burress in April, but the 32-year-old told ESPN he hopes to resume his NFL career when he completes his sentence.

Before the hearing began, Burress played with his preschool-age son, Elijah. Then he hugged and kissed his wife, child, father, grandmother and stepmother.

Burress was so soft-spoken during his apologetic courtroom address that onlookers could not understand him.

Defense lawyer Benjamin Brafton said, “This is a very real tragic case in many, many ways.” He called Burress “a fundamentally decent man.”

Did Burress shoot someone else? No.
Did Burress point the firearm at somebody? No.
Did Burress brandish the firearm in a threatening manner? Not that I'm aware of. He wasn't charged with that.

If Burress did those things, I could support prison time. In addition, as far as I know, he didn't in trouble at Michigan State during his time there, or in big trouble outside of back taxes while in the NFL. Is this guy such a threat to society that he needs to spend two years in prison? I don't think he is. I wouldn't go with him to the firing range, but it's not like he's Rae Carruth. Burress is less of a threat than violent offenders like the jerk in Marion Township who pointed his rifle at a girl and then shot her dog. Those people belong in prison. Thiefs and robbers belong in prison. Guys who beat up women belong in prison after receiving a beating of their own from family. Those are the people who are threats to society, not Burress.

I think it is gun grabber Michael Bloomberg and his DA team wanting to make an example out of a famous athlete from Virginia so he can campaign to the white yuppies on the Upper West Side of Manhattan for his re-election campaign.

Burress made three errors, and none of them should be a prison sentence. He violated NYC's gun laws for possession which any judge with a brain should find unconstitutional following the Heller precedent. He carried concealed in an area he's not allowed to do so. He was likely drinking around guns considering he was at a nightclub.

He was already punished severely for the third provision. He shot himself. I don't know from experience, but I'm sure that hurts. He took a ton of bad press for that.
For the others, he was ignorant of NYC's gun laws, or at least the severity of them.

The best thing for Burress would be to get probation, community service, and some gun safety classes. Prison should be reserved for real threats to society.

Rich New York Democrats committ vote fraud in Ohio

Vote fraud is real. It's been real, and not just ACORN. It's more prevalent now than ever, and here's the latest proof.

The ballots of four wealthy New York Democrats were yanked yesterday after they admitted they set up a temporary house in Ohio and then voted in the battleground state.

The New Yorkers and nine pals from around the country admitted they should never have registered in the Buckeye State, said prosecutors, who had investigated the group for possible vote fraud.

As part of a deal with prosecutors, the 13 said they were sorry and had "misunderstood" the state's voting rules.

"Without reservations, we apologize to the community [and] for the problems this misunderstanding has caused," said Greg Nolan, spokesman for activist group Vote from Home.

The Post reported Monday that the group is run from the East 82nd Street brownstone of Heather Halstead, daughter of Halstead Properties founder Clark Halstead.

Halstead and her husband, Marc Gustafson - along with Bank of New York Mellon exec Joel Speyer and former New York Sun reporter and Scarsdale resident Daniel Hemel - and their pals were investigated after they crammed into a three-bedroom house in Columbus and registered to vote.

All of them cast Ohio ballots, even though they are already registered in New York.

This is no mistake. You can't tell me these people did not know what they were doing. Halstead, and Gustafson are all on the donor lists, and active in other states. They knew exactly what they were doing.

To the prosecutor. Why the HELL are you letting them go? If elections can not be trusted, this entire country is at risk. They should get the maximum punishment possible with major fines and jailtime, and I'm not one quick to support such a measure. This can not be tolerated.

I'm sure these rich leftists would have LOTS of fun in Ohio prison, or even in the Franklin County jail.

Electoral College Math - Part 2, Mid Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic states are also strongly democrat in its leanings, similar to New England.

Solid Obama - 47 Votes
Lean Obama - 15 Votes
Toss up - 21 Votes

Solid Obama States:
New York (31 votes) - Kerry won 58-40% and Gore won 60-35%. The latest polls are three August polls. Rasmussen has Obama by 19% Quinnipac has Obama by 21. Siena has Obama by 8%. Bush closed the gap a bit in 04, but it still wasn't close. There's too many demographic changes. Long Island and Westchester are now almost solidly blue, and New York City is more blue. Reagan won Queens. Bush made inroads there and got Staten Island to flip, but there aren't enough blue collar Irish and Italians to make up for the liberal out of town transplants, NYU, old money, and minority vote. Manhattan went more democrat in 04 than in 2000. Upstate is almost 52-48% and will have to be closer to 65-35% GOP for McCain to win. I suspect there will be numbers similar to 2004 here, maybe slightly better.

Delaware (3 votes) - With Biden on the ticket, this state should be solid for Obama and not just a Democrat leaner. Kerry won 53-46% and Gore 55-42% which is enough for an outside look, but not with a home state candidate. The only poll was a February poll where Obama was up by 9% Biden's worst election was in 2002...58%. I'm writing Delaware off.

Maryland (10 votes) - One of the most consistant states for the democrats. This is due to government workers in DC, along with a close to 30% black popuation. Kerry won 56-43% and Gore won 57-40%. The latest poll from Rasmussen shows a 10 point Obama lead. It's underwhelming for Maryland, but I don't see it flipping and expect it to increase on Election Day because there's too much of a base. Even if McCain takes Baltimore, Charles, and Howard counties, there's a million votes out of Prince George County (DC East and minority), Montgomery County(DC North and culturally leftist), and Baltimore City and it averages out to about 75% democrat. There is a 520,000 vote gap that needs to be made up from those counties alone, more than the City of Detroit's gap here in Michigan. This is in a state with 2.3 million voters total. That's just too much to make up unless there is a significant infighting on the left and a great GOP candidate team like Bob Ehrich and Michael Steele in 2002.

Washington DC (3 votes) - I do not believe the Republicans ever won DC. They won't this year either. There are no polls for DC, but when Kerry and Gore rack up 89-9% and 85-5% wins, there doesn't need to be a poll. Not even George Washington could win here if he was a Republican.

Lean Obama State:
New Jersey (15 votes) - I think the Republicans are going to try to make a run here. They normally do late as polls tighten, but the dems usually win it on election day by a greater than expected number. It went 53-46% for Kerry and 56-40% for Bush. Bush made many inroads in 2004, can McCain keep them in 08 after the 06 close calls there (District 7). The latest polls in August Obama up by 10. I suspect similar numbers to 2004 here in the end, which are typical for the state. If Jersey flips, it'll be over early. The only real shot is if McCain can break through South Jersey, while improving on Bush's improvements in North Jersey. It's possible, but I won't put money on it. Too much Camden, Orange, Newark, Jersey City, Atlantic City, and culturally liberal suburbs.

Tossup:
Pennsylvania - In my opinion, this is one of the most important battleground states this election, along with Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Michigan. It was close the last two elections. Kerry won 51-48% and Gore 51-46%. Recent polls there have a 3-7 point Obama lead, pre-convention. It was a 6-10 point lead for awhile. In the end, I expect this to be a 1-5% race...either way. The Primary report on the democrat's side was there. It showed Obama's weakness in blue collar areas. The primary votes were not even close. From past elections, Kerry won 13 counties in 2004. Gore won 18 in 2000. Bush won all the rest.

Either James Carville or Paul Begala jokingly referred to Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh and Philly, with Alabama in between. That is an exaggeration, but the "T" section is Republican leaning mostly with the most democrat portions of the state in the Southwest and Southeast areas. I think there these areas in no particular order will tell the biggest story of the election.

1. Philly. The democrats got a 415,000 vote spread from Philly, and won the state by 140,000 votes. Obama will win Philly. That is not in dispute. What is in dispute is how much. He won it 65-35% in the primary. Will Philly go 70-30% in 08 or go 81-19% like it did in 2004. I would like to see the returns out of South Philly (Rocky) and the swing area in Northeast Philly.

2. Philly suburbs. The democrats have been making big gains here since the Clinton years. In the primary, Obama won the 57% Kerry Delaware and 52% Bush Chester County. He narrowly lost 56% Kerry Montgomery County and lost badly in 51% Kerry Bucks County. Bucks County and Chester County are IMO the major areas to watch.

3. Conservative Base Counties. Lancaster and York Counties, along with the other rural areas. Lancaster and York Counties are 65% and 63% Bush areas in 2004 that combine for almost 500,000 votes. Will they go for McCain/Palin by that margin? Obama won Lancaster in the primary. Dauphin County went 58-42 Obama in the primary. Bush got 54% in Dauphin in 04. Cumberland next door was close in the primary, but 64% for Bush in 04. One Bush county from 2000 and 2004 is Centre County. It was Obama's 2nd best county in the primary besides Philly. 60% for Obama. It was 51% for Bush in 2004. I think that county flips.

4. Western PA. Pittsburgh, it's suburban counties, Johnstown, and Erie up North. Obama was trounced here in the primary. He'll have to make up ground here if he is going to win PA. Most of those counties, outside of Alleghany, are winnable for either party, although they are historically democrat leaning. These areas like John Murtha democrats. I don't mean by foreign policy, but domestic policy. Murtha always wins. Why? Because he brings home the bacon, votes against gun control in most cases, and has a pro-life reputation. I expect Alleghany County (Pittsburgh) to go for Obama, but the question here is how much. It is a 57% county, but can Obama match it? The other counties are closer and range from 53% Democrat (2004) to 57% Republican (2004). In order: Erie, Fayette, Beaver, Washington (Dem), Cambria (usually dem,but went for Bush), Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Westmoreland, and Crawford. The rest are major base counties for Bush so I didn't include them. These 10 counties are ones to watch.

5. Eastern PA - Scranton, Wilkes Barre, Bethlehem, Allentown, Reading. This area is quite similar to Western PA in its blue collar views. This is also a steel area. This area leans "Bob Casey Democrat" (pro-gun, pro-life, and pro-union) and is competitive in all elections. In 2004, Berks, Schuylkill (almost a base GOP county, but historical democrat), Carbon, and Monroe Counties went for Bush. Leigh and Northampton Counties are true Bellwether counties. Luzerne and Lackawanna are the base democrat counties there. Wilkes-Barre and Scranton. Luzerne was only 51% Democrat in 04. Lackawanna was 56% Democrat (59% for Gore). It was a 75% Hillary Clinton county over Obama however. I think McCain could sweep all of these counties, at least by a small margain, outside of Lackawanna County which is too yellow dog, even moreso than Pittsburgh's county. If I'm wrong on Lackawanna and it goes for McCain, McCain likely wins Pennsylvania barring a miracle in Philly.

Overall, this is once again going to be a tough hard fought race in Pennsylvania. It's a little bit Northeast/Mid Atlantic in attitudes in parts, part rust belt Midwest, and part Appalachian. It's a little bit of American, so this should not be a surprise.

Electoral College Math - Part 1 - New England

I thought about the electoral college math when the latest Gallup poll out has McCain leaning by 4% and 3%. Rasmussen has a lot of polls out, and that one was a tie. Those are the two most recent polls, before that Hotline had Obama up by 6, CBS was tied, and CNN had Obama up by one. The translation? It's anybody's game. A good site for poll checking is Real Clear Politics. It shows a lot of different pollsters.

One of my professors back in a political science class I took at MSU said this best. Polls are a snapshot in time. That means they are not the election. Sometimes they get them right, oftentimes they are slightly off but relatively close to the actual results. Sometimes they are way off. That does not mean that the polls are wrong. It could mean that, and it could also mean that the people had a different opinion the next day, or two months from now on election day.

National polls and the popular vote are important, but it is the states that matter most. I haven't had a lot of strong original material here since my 2nd Amendment Supreme Court preview close to a year ago, so I'll start something here.

The goal of each campaign is to get 270 Electoral votes from 50 states, Washington DC, and five seperate electoral districts. All the states except two, along with Washington DC, have a winner take all format. All the states have two (senate) electoral votes plus one vote for every congressional district. DC has 3 votes. The two states that do not have winner take all formats are Maine and Nebraska. Those two states award two votes for the winner of the state, plus one vote for winning each congressional district. It has not mattered much recently. Maine's 2nd district is sometimes close, but leans democrat. Gore won it by 3% and Kerry by 6%. Maine's first district is more democrat and I expect will easily go that way again in 2008. All three Nebraska district are solidly Republican. Even in the democrat congressional tide in 2006, none of those districts, even Omaha or Lincoln, were within 10%, and local democrats do much better in the plains than national democrats.

Taking first past federal election history, secondly polls, and lastly the candidates themselves, this is how I currently have the states.

New England:
Solid Obama - 29 votes
Lean Obama - 1 vote
Tossup - 4 votes

I don't think there is a lot of doubt here. Some people have Connecticut or Maine going for McCain over Obama, but that's a pipe dream unless there is a Dukakis blunder of momumental proportions. If either of those two states go for McCain, it's over and it will be a landslide, at least compared with the last two elections.

Solid Obama states in New England:
Vermont (3 votes) - Kerry won with 59% Gore won with only 51%, but that was due to 7% going for Nader. Bush got 41% in 2000 and 39% in 2004. There hasn't been a poll since February, but one had Obama up 57-36 (Survey USA) and the other 63-29 (Research 2000). This is one of the safest states in the country for Obama, if not the safest. I except Vermont to be Obama's top state in the country. It culturally fits the white base of Obama.

Massachusetts (12 votes) - A name that starts with Mc may help McCain, but it won't be enough. Even if he wins the blue collar whote vote, there's still the very strong university vote and sizable minority populations in Boston and Springfield. Kerry won 62-37 and Gore won 60-33-6. The polls show some weakness for Obama here compared to previous democrats, with the latest August poll (Rasmussen) showing a 51-39 Obama lead. I expect most of the undecideds to come home in the end based on previous showings.

Rhode Island (4 votes) - Massachusetts South, a little more blue collar. Kerry on 59-39% Gore won 61-32% Obama will struggle with the Catholic vote to a degree, but not as much here as elsewhere. The last poll (Brown Univeristy) and only August poll has Obama 51-McCain 30.

Connecticut (7 votes) - A mixture of New York influence, Boston influence, and two democrat strongholds of Hartford and New Haven. The last two elections had Kerry win 54-44% and Gore win 56-38% The last poll was in July by Rasmussen and had a 53-40% Obama lead. I'm hearing some talk about Connecticut and Maine being dark horses to flip McCain now. This was before a lot of the national momentum, but the last two election results can not be overlooked, nor can Hartford and New Haven's major bases, combined with the growth of the New York influence. I'd love to see a 50 state strategy, preferably long term, but I think this is a big reach. If I'm wrong, it'll be a landslide.

Solid/Lean Obama:
Maine (2 votes, 1 vote, and 1 vote) - I have Maine overall as solid for Obama as well as Maine 1. Maine 2 I have has a leaner. Under the Maine/Nebraska system, there are three presidential races in Maine. First is at statewide for two votes with the other two being for that district. In order of difficulty for Republicans is Maine 2, state wide, and Maine 1. District 1 went 55-43% Kerry and 50-43-7% Gore. It contains Portland, a democrat stronghold. Maine 2 went 52-46% Kerry and 48-45-7% Gore. It is more socially moderate and blue collar compared to District 1, although it has the democrat stronghold of Lewiston. I can possibly see a competition in District 2, but District 1 is a stretch, and Maine as a whole has moved more towards the democrats.

Toss up:
New Hampshire (4 votes) - One of the few states that flipped in 2000/2004. The myth is that Massachusetts transplants turned this once solidly Republican state to a swing state. The reality is that according to exit polls in 2004, Massachusetts transplants voted for Bush. Native New Hampshire residents and other state transplants did not. Western New Hampshire did him in in 04 along the Vermont border, along with Concord. Manchester, the major city near Massachusetts went for Bush along with that border. The transplants there voted against Taxachusetts. It was the rest of the state that voted against him. The races here were close. Kerry won 50-49% in 2004, and Bush won 48-47% in 2000. Bush is very unpopular there today though, much like the rest of New England. There is still a strong libertarian streak in New Hampshire, and if McCain can tap it based on his spending, he's got a chance to flip the state. If its isolationist streak comes back like it did in 2006, big trouble. The latest poll (Rasmussen) from August has it 47-46 Obama. I think this could be another close race typical of New Hampshire.