Tuesday Primaries

I don’t have time for a super detailed post right now. That will likely happen this weekend.

First off, turnout was poor. 17.32% of the voters decided elections in Livingston County. Compare that to 70-some% in 2004.

Some primary results:

State rep wasn’t that close. Bill Rogers and Cindy Denby won easily for the Republicans. Donna Anderson won easily for the dems. Somehow Tom Crawford got 33% for the dems by putting his name on the ballot. Somehow Josiah Goyt got 33% of the vote in one of the GOP County Commissioner primaries despite dropping out due to a new job and telling the papers that he dropped.

Hamburg – Incumbents got sent home. It did not matter which faction a candidate was identified with. We have a new township supervisor, clerk, and treasurer in Hamburg. Only one incumbent survived, Chuck Menzies, a trustee. The voters had enough of the situation. While the candidates seemed to run on a slate or a quasi-slate, the voters do not choose candidates based on the slates. They don’t care about that stuff.

Unadilla Township will also have a new supervisor. I didn’t follow what happened out there, but Linda Walker ran a respectable judicial campaign a couple of years back. She’s now their new supervisor.

Brighton Township – The treasurer got sent home. Lana Theis, a strong fiscal conservative defeated the incumbent and will be the new Brighton Township treasurer. Tom Murphy won the supervisor’s spot. Good results for the most part there, although I was hoping Chuck Moran would win too.

Genoa Township – In normally quiet Genoa Township, Tom Rafferty ran respectable in his supervisor race against Gary McCririe. That one caught me a bit by surprise.

County Commissioner – Ronald Van Houten survived a strong challenge out of Fowlerville. He defeated Doug Helzerman by 63 votes.

4th Appeals judge was a name recognition race. Michael Kelly and Paula Manderfield win it. Both were democrats, although this race wasn’t “democrat vs republican” Neither were my top two choices. I’m undecided in that race now between one of them or leaving it blank. Sorry Mike, I don’t vote just based on you having an Irish last name.

In the 13th, Kwame’s mom leads, but Mary Waters does not concede. This one is closer than I thought, and I’d love to see the vote breakdowns based on Detroit neighborhoods, Grosse Pointe, and especially the democrat Downriver area. Carolyn Kilpatrick only had 39% of the vote. Mary Waters 36%. 39% wins are weak for incumbents.

Updated List of Livingston County Candidates

From the Argus:

U.S. House of Representatives:

(R) Mike Rogers (I)

(D) Bob Alexander


U.S. Senate:

(D) Carl Levin (I)

(R) Jack Hoogendyk Jr.

For state Rep. Joe Hune’s seat (47th District):

(R) Charlie Aberasturi

(R) Cindy Denby

(R) Carl Konopaska

(R) Frank Portelli

(D) Scott F. Lucas

(U.S. Taxpayers) Philip Johnson

For state Rep. Chris Ward’s seat (66th District):

(R) Jason Corosanite

(R) Bill Rogers

(D) Tommy Crawford

(D) Donna Anderson

For county administration:

Prosecuting attorney:

(R) David Morse (I)

Sheriff:

(R) Bob Bezotte (I)

Clerk:

(R) Margaret Dunleavy (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Dianne Hardy (I)

Register of deeds:

(R) Sally Reynolds (I)

Drain commissioner:

(R) Brian Jonckheere (I)

For county Board of Commissioners:

(1st District)

(R) Maggie Jones (I)

(D) Pamela Green

(2nd District)

(R) Jim Mantey (I)

(R) Josiah Goyt

(3rd District)

(R) Dave Domas (I)

(D) Adrian Campbell Montgomery

(4th District)

(R) Ron Van Houten (I)

(R) Doug Helzerman

(5th District)

(R) Donald Parker (I)

(6th District)

(R) Steve Williams (I)

(7th District)

(R) Carol Griffith

(8th District)

(R) Dennis Dolan (I)

(9th District)

(R) Jack LaBelle (I)

53rd District Court

Judge:

(Nonpartisan) Theresa Brennan (I)

(Nonpartisan) Lyle Dickson

(Nonpartisan) Jay Drick

Brighton Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Tom Murphy

(R) Ken Wilkinson

Clerk:

(R) Ann Bollin (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Geri Harmon (I)

(R) Lana L. Theis

Trustee:

(R) Cathy Doughty (I)

(R) Jim Kovitz

(R) Charles L. Moran III

(R) John C. Rogers

(R) Mike Slaton (I)

(R) Jason Welter

Cohoctah Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Mark Fosdick (I)

Clerk:

(R) Brenda L. Meek

(D) Tammy S. Moen

Treasurer:

(R) Tami Bock (I)

Trustee:

(R) Karen M. Thurner

(R) Bill Thurner

Conway Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Bob Burke

(R) Michael B. Rife (I)

Clerk:

(R) Gary F. Benson

(R) Cindy Dickerson

(R) Alison D. Killen

Treasurer:

(R) Kathy DeMarais (I)

Trustee:

(R) Lawrence Parsons (I)

(R) Lorianne Marie Swails

(R) Eric N. West (I)

Constable:

(R) Dennis L. Bowdoin (I)

Deerfield Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Thomas A. Green (I)

Clerk:

(R) Nancy Laier (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Cheryl Petchell (I)

Trustee:

(R) Alfred G. Mattioli

(R) Doug Taylor (I)

Genoa Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Gary T. McCririe (I)

(R) Tom Rafferty

Clerk:

(R) Paulette A. Skolarus (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Robin L. Hunt (I)

Trustee:

(R) Jean W. Ledford (I)

(R) H. James Mortenson (I)

(R) Todd Smith (I)

(R) Steve W. Wildman (I)

(R) Dewey Thomas

Green Oak Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Mark St. Charles (I)

Clerk:

(R) Michael H. Sedlak (I)

(D) Walt Ernst

Treasurer:

(R) Susan Daugherty (I)

Trustee:

(R) Tracey Edry

(R) Richard Everett

(R) Rollin Green (I)

(R) George Kilpatrick (I)

(R) Michael Kruszewski

(R) Billy E. Lintner

(R) Wally Qualls (I)

(D) Anna Ernst

(D) Jo Ann Murphy

Hamburg Township:
Supervisor:

(R) Don Burtraw

(R) Patrick Hohl

(R) Cindy Pine (I)

Clerk:

(R) Joanna G. Hardesty (I)

(R) Matt Skiba

Treasurer:

(R) Patrick Evon

(R) Roberta Balon-Vaughn (I)

Trustee:

(R) Howard Dillman

(R) Michael H. Dolan

(R) Bill Hahn

(R) Chuck Menzies (I)

(R) Jasson Negri

(R) Philip Semprevivo

(R) Kevin B. Wiley

(R) Michael Zeglevski

Hamburg Township Library

Trustee:

(Nonpartisan) Stella Campbell

(Nonpartisan) Richelle Hocking

Handy Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Henry M. Vaupel

Clerk:

(R) Laura A. Eisele (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Linda M. Tesch (I)

Trustee:

(R) Erik C. Frazier

(R) Paul K. Moots

(R) Gordon R. Munsell

(R) Dave Roddy

(D) Robert L. Redinger (I)

Hartland Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Bill Fountain (I)

Clerk:

(R) Ann Ulrich (I)

(R) Victor Law

Treasurer:

(R) Kathie Horning (I)

Trustee:

(R) Joe Colaianne (I)

(R) Glenn Harper (I)

(R) Larry Hopkins (I)

(R) Joe Petrucci (I)

Howell Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Maureen Heikkinen (I)

Clerk:

(R) Carolyn Eaton (I)

(R) Mira Spyres

Treasurer:

(R) Lawrence Hammond (I)

Trustee:

(R) Anne Forrester Barker

(R) Mike Coddington (I)

(R) Aaren Currie

(R) Bill Graham

(R) Carolyn J. Henry

(R) John Hubbel (I)

(R) James Phelan (I)

(R) Debbie Platt

(R) Michael Rusk

Iosco Township:

Supervisor:

(R) William Miller (I)

Clerk:

(R) Dan Delmerico (I)

(R) Amanda DeGroot Opolka

Treasurer:

(R) Connie Michaud (I)

Trustee:(R) Roy DeGroot (I)

(R) Joseph Parker (I)

Marion Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Robert Hanvey (I)

Clerk:

(R) Tammy Beal (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Paula Wyckoff (I)

Trustee:

(R) Les Andersen (I)

(R) David J. Hamann (I)

(R) Travis Hodge (I)

(R) Scott Lloyd

(R) Dan Lowe (I)

Oceola Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Bill Bamber (I)

Clerk:

(R) Kathleen McLean (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Evelyn Cornell (I)

Trustee:

(R) Sean Dunleavy (I)

(R) Robert Henshaw (I)

(R) Kieth Huff (I)

(R) Lance Schuhmacher (I)

Putnam Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Ron Rau (I)

Clerk:

(R) Sally Guyon (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Pat Carney

(R) Carrie Humble

(R) Pamela Kekes

Trustee:

(R) Jerry Balk

(R) Keith Chambers

(R) G. RIchard McCloskey (I)

(R) Norm Klein (I)

(D) Kevin Dobis (I)

(D) Frank Gazdecki

Tyrone Township:

Supervisor:

(R) Andrew Schmidt (I)

Clerk:

(R) Keith Kremer

(R) Horace “Hod” Morton (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Robert Fahndrich

(R) David Kurtz (I)

Trustee:

(R) Suzanne Anderson

(R) Robert Byerly (I)

(R) Brian Miles (I)

(R) Steve Hasbrouck

(R) Steven Nagy (I)

(R) Lynn Thompson (I)

Unadilla Township:

Supervisor:

(R) James Peterson (I)

(R) Linda Carol Walker

Clerk:

(R) Linda Topping (I)

Treasurer:

(R) Bonnie Mahler (I)

Trustee:

(R) Paul Brown

(R) Marie Duke

(R) Warren Krueger (I)

(D) Lori Cowan (I)

(R) Julie Weiland

(D) Kelly Schmidt

2008 Livingston County Preview

We now have our two-party candidates in for election this year. There are some interesting races of note that affect Livingston County.

US Senate: - Jack Hoogendyk will be the GOP nominee. He's taking on the absolutely worthless Carl Levin. He's been in there 30 years, and has been a common factor in all of Michigan's economic woes. Go Jack!

US House, District 8 - Mike Rogers has a rematch with Bob Alexander. It wasn't even close last time.

State House
District 47 - Joe Hune is termed out. Seven candidates are running for this spots. Four Republicans, two Democrats, and one Constitution (US Taxpayers in Michigan) party member. The Republicans are Cindy Denby, Charlie Aberasturi (Hartland School board member), Carl Konopaska, and Frank Portelli. Cindy is the Handy Township Supervisor. She was also Joe's chief of staff. I know Cindy, and have heard the names Aberasturi and Portelli before, but I don't know them. The two democrats are Joe Lazo Sr, and Scott Lucas. I don't know anything about them offhand. The Constitution Party member is Phillip Johnson. He won't be on the August ballot, only the general. Cindy Denby is probably the favorite to win, but it's a four candidate primary. Anything can happen.

District 66 - Two Republicans and Two Democrats have filed. Bill Rogers and Jason Corosanite have filed. Both of them are from Genoa Township. Bill's currently a county comissioner and owns a business. Jason is a chiropractor and owns a business. The democrats are running Donna Anderson and Tom Crawford. Anderson ran against Valde Garcia in 2006, and Tom Crawford is a Milford resident.

I am surprised to a degree that mulitple democrats are running for the state rep seats. I think it is a tactical error on their part, but I'm not complaining.

County Seats:
Prosecutor, Sheriff, Clerk, Treasurer, Register of Deeds, and Drain Commissioner are all unopposed. For all intents and purposes they just won re-election. Most county commission seats are also unopposed. That surprises me, as there are two or three that can be competitive in a good year. The ones that are not unopposed are:
County Commission:
District 1 - Incumbent Maggie Jones (R) is challenged by Pam Green (D), who is on the democrat's exec committee. The district is almost all of Brighton Township and a small part of Hartland Township. It is one of the strongest GOP district in the county.

District 2 - Incumbent Jim Mantley (R) is challenged in the primary by Josiah Goyt (R). This is for Mike Randall's old seat. Both are Republicans and the August primary will decide the winner. Mantley is the incumbent due to being appointed by the county board. No democrats have filed here.

District 3 - Incumbent Dave Domas (R) is challenged by Adrian Campbell Montgomery (D). The Argus has a story about this race. Montgomery is most known for being in one of the idiot Michael Moore's movies. This one being sicko. That would cost my vote right off the bat after his hatchet job "Bowling for Columbine". Go Dave! The district is generally solid republican with almost all of Hartland, although Tyrone Township is sometimes erratic.

District 4 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten (R) is challenged by Doug Helzerman (R). This race will also be decided in the primaries.

I am a bit surprised that the dems are challenging the strongest partisan districts and not the weaker partisan districts, especially the Green Oak, Hamburg, and Putnam Township based seats.

Township level I'll go into later. There's a lot of primary activity going on there.

Pennsylvania Primary - Hillary stays alive, Indiana preview

Pennsylvania voted on their primary. Hillary "Raaaaaaoooooow" Clinton won 55-45% against Barack "Cling to guns and Religion" Obama. This could be a brokered convention this year. Clinton can't catch Obama without the superdelegates and Obama can't win without superdelgates. The best thing that can happen is for the two of them to continue to beat the hell out of them so bad that the base of the candidate stays home on election day.

CNN's website did a great job breaking this down. The interesting things I noticed.

1. Obama was destroyed in blue collar areas. He was shut out completely in Western Pennsylvania, even Allegheny County which has Pittsburgh. That went 54-46% Hillary. Erie County went 63-37% for Clinton. He was shut out in the blue collar Northeastern sections. Clinton's best area in the state was Scranton and Wilkes-Barre which went 75% for Hillary. Johnstown in West Central PA was 72% for Hillary. Those three areas are democrat leaning, but social conservative. Bay City is probably the closest description in this state of a similar area. Leigh Valley in the East was another key swing area and usually a bellwether for the general. Those were 60-40%.

2. Obama won 7 counties. Only 4 other counties were under 55% for Hillary. Obama's 11 best counties were.
1. Philadelphia - 65%-35% Obama - Not a surprise. Large black population, several colleges (Penn, Temple).
2. Centre County - 60%-40% - Penn State University.
3. Dauphin County - 58%-42% - Harrisburg. State Capitol with government workers, large black population.
4. Delaware County - 55%-45% - Suburban Philly. He didn't do as well here as I thought he would. Chester is in this district.
5. Chester County - 55%-45% - The only Republican County in the Philly Suburbs. The results here are somewhat surprising as he lost Montgomery and Bucks Counties. Coatesville and West Chester are the democrat bases. What I do not know is if some of this vote was a backlash against Hillary for the Bill Clinton years.
6. Lancaster County - 54%-46% - This is one of the two most Republican Counties in the state. There are really conservatives of three different minds if they want to play mischief. One is to knock out the Clintons for good. Another is to vote for the weaker opponent. Lastly is to try and get them to kick the hell out of each other (where I stand right now). To be honest, this vote does puzzle me, with similar York County next door voting differently.
7. Union County - 52%-48% - The last county Obama won. It is the home of Bucknell University.
8. Montgomery County - 51%-49% Hillary - Suburban Philly. Obama needed to win here, but didn't. I think the feminist vote did him in. This is one of the favorite counties of the NOW gang and is a haven for rich leftists.
9. Cumberland - 53%-47% Hillary - West of Harrisburg. There are several small colleges here, but I wonder if the main vote was white government workers near Harrisburg.
10. Allegheny County - 54-46% Hillary - I bet almost all of Obama's vote was in the black sections of Pittsburgh, or the university crowd there from Pitt and Carnegie Mellon. He needed to win here and didn't.
11. York County - 55%-45% Hillary - I figured York and Lancaster would vote the same way as usual. Not this time.
In no other county did Obama get 45% or more.

3. Seniors run the show. As the left loves to point out, Al Gore won the popular vote. Bush won the popular vote in 2004. Both times, it was due to the seniors. They switched their vote overall in 2004 after voting for Clinton and Gore. They were back this year, for Clinton in a big way. Exit poll data:

Those 65 and older were 22% of the vote, and voted 63%-37% for Hillary Clinton. Add in the older Baby Boomers 50-64 to the Clinton total as well. Those 50-64 were 37% of the vote and went 56%-44% for Clinton.

Seniors vote, and will probably swing the election this November more than any other demographic.

4. McCain voters - 70%-30% for Obama. Most of the "mischief" vote went for Obama, not Hillary. Does that explain Lancaster, Cumberland, and part of Chester Counties?

5. Gender gap. 41% of the vote were men. They voted for Obama 52-48%. 59% of the vote were women. They voted for Hillary 57%-43% .

So what's next?
May 3 - Indiana and North Carolina
May 13 - West Virginia,
May 20 - Kentucky and Oregon
June 1 - Puerto Rico
June 3 - Montana and South Dakota.

I think Obama should be favored in North Carolina with the large black population and number of Universities there (Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Greensboro, Durham, Winston Salem, Wilmington, Charlotte, Asheville).

Indiana is one to watch. Hillary should win it, but I'm not counting out Obama here. Indianapolis will vote for blacks, even rather leftist ones like the Carson family. Gary will vote for Obama. Bloomington will be a big base for him as well with Indiana University. The base counties for democrats in Indiana in 04 are:

1. Lake County - Gary, Hammond, East Chicago - 61% Kerry
2. Monroe - Bloomington - 54% Kerry (Flipped from Bush in 2000 who won with 52%)
3. Marion - Indianapolis - 50% Kerry (flipped from Bush in 2000 who won with 50%)
4. LaPorte - Michigan City - 50% Kerry

2000 was much more favorable presidential year to democrats in Indiana, even though there was no real contest there. Gore won:
1. Lake County - 63% Gore
2. Perry County - 52% Gore - Rural, Bush won it in 04 with 50%
3. Laporte - 50% Gore
4. Scott County - 50% Gore - Rural, Bush won it in 04 with 55%
5. St Joseph County (South Bend) - 49% Gore, Bush won it in 04 with 51%

Delaware County (Muncie/Ball State) is 48% Democrat in 2000 and could factor in this race. It was 43% Dem in 04.
Madison County (Anderson) was 45% Democrat in 2000 and 40% Dem in 04.
Porter County (Gary Suburbs) was 46% Democrat in 2000 and 45% Dem in 04.
Stark County (North Rural) was 48% Democrat in 2000 and 45% Dem in 04.
Sullivan County (SW Rural) was 46% Democrat in 2000 and 40% Dem in 04.
Vigo County (Terre Haute/Indiana State) was 49% Democrat in 2000 and 46% Dem in 04.

There are a lot of state democrats/federal republicans in Indiana, largely in the Southern rural areas, and to a lesser extent, Evansville. That area, along with the similar Cincy area, turned on Bush in 06. These areas are heavily white. What will they do? Go back to Clinton, or go with Obama? I'd keep an eye on Tippecanoe as well. That's Purdue. It was 40% Dem in both 00 and 04, but West Lafayette is a college town.

I predicted Hillary to win Penn by 5% I was off a bit and underestimated the blue collar vote. I'm going to with Hillary by 10% in Indiana, and Obama by 10% in North Carolina. Hopefully, I'm right and they split the two states. That would be best for them beating up each other.

Pennsylvania Primary

Today's a big day for the democrats. I hope Hillary wins Pennsylvania big. Why? Because the closer the spread between the delegates, the better it is for the GOP. I would like to see them beat the hell out of each other.

My prediction - Hillary beats Obama by 5%, closer than some expect. Philly and their Burbs goes big for Obama. Hillary wins the T section, Scranton, Leigh Valley, and the Pittsburgh suburbs. Obama takes Harrisburg and the city of Pittsburgh.

Michael Barone examines the Democrat's infighting (Ulster Scots vs Academia)

Michael Barone (who writes the Almanac of American Politics) provides IMO the best analysis of elections and demographics in politics in the country. He wrote an interesting piece on the divide between Obama and Hillary supporters.

From Real Clear Politics

produced deep divisions among Democratic constituencies. It looks something like tribal warfare. Whites have voted, if you average the results from the states, 53 percent to 39 percent for Clinton; blacks, 80 percent to 17 percent for Obama; Latinos, 58 percent to 39 percent for Clinton; Asians, in California (the one primary state where they're numerous enough to gauge), 71 percent to 25 percent for Clinton.

The differences in voting by the young, overwhelmingly for Obama, and the elderly, overwhelmingly for Clinton, are as large as any I can remember in either a primary or general election. Upscale voters are heavily for Obama; downscale voters are heavily for Clinton.

As the contest has continued, increasing percentages of Clinton and Obama voters say they wouldn't vote for the other candidate against John McCain.

But the exit polls don't show another tribal division, one that emerges when you examine the election returns by county and congressional district. In state after state -- from New Hampshire and Michigan to Texas and Ohio -- Obama runs unusually strongly in counties with large universities. Academics -- and I include here those who choose to live in university towns as well as those actually in or teaching school -- seem to find Obama particularly appealing.

I've noticed this for about a year in Obama's case, although I really underestimated Hillary's appeal to blue collar areas. I don't know if that is due to "not being Obama," due to Bill, or due to something else.

Clinton's highest percentages come in counties with large numbers of Latinos and what I call Jacksonians. You can see the latter in counties in what is loosely called Appalachia -- southwest Virginia, southern Ohio, the north end of Georgia, non-metropolitan Tennessee, northern Alabama, northeast Mississippi, all of Arkansas, southern Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, east and central Texas.

These are lands that were settled by the colonial era immigrants from northern England, Scotland and northern Ireland and their descendants, who thronged down the Appalachian chain and then, like their heroes Andrew Jackson and Sam Houston, kept going southwest.

Clinton's strong performance among Jacksonians may reflect her positive appeal (it certainly does in Arkansas), but it also seems to reflect a distaste for Obama. Buchanan County, Va., which borders the yet-to-vote states of West Virginia and Kentucky, voted 90 percent for Clinton and 9 percent for Obama.

What's behind these sharp divisions? You could sum it up by saying that Jacksonians are fighters and academics (and public employees) are not. Jacksonians fought fierce battles against Indians as they moved southwest; they have always made up a disproportionate share of the American military (and were on both sides in the Civil War).

As historian David Hackett Fischer writes in "Albion's Seed," they believe in natural liberty -- I'll leave you alone if you'll leave me alone, but if you attack my family or my country, I'll kill you. Academics are, to say the least, lightly represented in the American military, and in economic terms they tend to compete with the military for public dollars. They seek honor for the work of peace as fiercely as Jacksonians seek honor for the feats of war....

I've read Albion's seed and it is an excellent book comparing the original British settlers who cast their stamp in the US - The Puritains (Yankees) from East England, The Quakers, The Cavaliers (Coastal South), and the Border Scots which settled largely in a stretch of country from Central Pennsylvania down through Florida, and then moved West through the rest of the South, lower Midwest, and then West to much of the inland empire in California. Many of them also settled in Michigan, particulary Downriver and in the auto areas. These four groups to this day are the strongest influence on the landscape and culture in this country - despite those of German origin being a plurality of the population today. The Catholic Irish were largely Jacksonian in voting, and were democrats until social issues started dominating the party. Now (and partly thanks to Reagan), they are on all sides. My own extended family is split politically. I'm less familiar with the Poles and Italians as bloc voters, but I believe the Poles were democrats largely along union lines (less so today), and the Italians factored more on location. None of them were socially liberal as a whole in the working classes.

Now what Barone calls "Jacksonians" largely moved from the largely Presbyterian Borderlands due to conflicts with the Anglicans. They have been fighters for generations. They fought the Romans, the English, the (Catholic) Irish, and in the USA the British, American Indians (although many of the Ulster-Scots also intermarried with American Indians - particulary in the South), and during the Civil War - each other as they fought on both sides. From the borderlands, many settled in Ulster, most of which is now in "Northern Ireland." Andrew Jackson's father was born in County Antrim, which is part of Ulster. It wasn't easy for the Ulster Scots, as their Celtic cousins, the Catholic Irish had no great love for them or vice versa. Sporadic fighting has gone on for hundreds of years during the "Troubles" in Ireland which still go on today, although to a lesser degree. Even the choice of whiskey is important. Jameson is the Catholic drink. Bushmills is the protestant drink. A large number of them moved to the US as indentured servants, and yeoman farmers, and they were pushed to the backlands as the Cavaliers (who were most, although not all of the plantation) had most of the good land near the tidewater in Virginia.

The "Jacksonians" today are often three way swing voters. They used to be largely democrat in most areas, but today much less so. Many of them stay home. Many of them were Perot Voters. Many of them are ticket splitters. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Oklahoma (Democrats do well on state level), until recently Kentucky, Virginia (Southwest decides the races) today, West Virginia today. All of those are key states. Most of them are not liberals, especially on social issues, but economic issues (that favor both sides) are big to them, and they are not trustworthy of big business - and despise incompetence. In 2006, many of these Jacksonian areas, especially in Indiana and Ohio, taught the GOP a lesson about entitlements. They made the same mistakes the democrats made. The GOP thought they were ENTITLED to those votes. Remember Thomas Frank's bitching about what's the matter with Kansas. He said that they were voting against their best interest. Bullshit. That was the problem. Frank and the other democrats thought they knew what was best for them, which is the problem in the first place. That cost votes right off the bad.

These people voted for Bush twice, and at the same time sent some republican governors home. Don Sundquist pushed for taxes and hurt the GOP bad in Tennessee. Brad Henry ran a great campaign in Oklahoma. West Virginia still ticket splits. Missouri and Ohio have the best track records in the country on presidential voting.

Polling suggests that the Democratic nominee may not be able to count on the losing candidate's tribes in November. Academics and young people and blacks may not turn out in extraordinary numbers for Clinton, as they have for Obama, and the upscale may prefer McCain to a tax increase.

Similarly, Jacksonians, the elderly, the downscale and Latinos may prefer the very Jacksonian McCain to Obama. All of which should worry the super-delegates who must determine who wins the Democrats' tribal war.

It is WAY too early though to make predictions on this. Six months is a lifetime in presidential politics. The good news for the democrats are the severe blunders by the Don Sherwoods and Mark Foleys of the party, as well as Bush's conduct in Katrina and Harriet Miers. The bad news is that the democrats are in bed with the Soros and Hollywood wing of the party on money - which conflicts with everyday Americans. What will happen? Stay tuned.

Game 2 (GOP) tomorrow - Wyoming - 1/5

This one is being overlooked. There's only 12 delegates out of Wyoming, but that's the same number as New Hampshire.

"AS WYOMING GOES, so the nation"--that's an aphorism that will probably never describe American politics. But tomorrow, Wyoming Republicans will play a more significant role than ever before in determining their party's presidential nominee, when they elect 12 delegates--the same number allotted to New Hampshire--to the Republican National Convention.

If you didn't know the Wyoming GOP is holding an election tomorrow, don't feel too out of the loop. With all eyes fixed on Iowa and New Hampshire, the media--and the candidates themselves--haven't paid much attention to Wyoming either. And there are a few good reasons for that.

After Wyoming is New Hampshire which is Game 2 for the dems and Game 3 for the GOP.