Friday, November 25, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 42 (HD-42)

State House - District 42
Current Reps - Bill Rogers (R-Genoa Twp)

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Bill Rogers (R-Brighton)
Dem - Shanda Willis (D-Brighton)

Update 5-26-2012 - Bill Rogers has a challenger from Novi Teacher Dale Rogers, who often posts on the Livingston Post website. Bill's favored to win, although I think Dale has the potential with his background to be a strong challenger if he really knows how to run a state rep campaign. Adding Hamburg and Putnam Twps did not do Bill any favors. While most MEA teachers are democrats, there are many who are swing voters or sometimes weak GOP because of some issues. I noticed that from other campaigns, including some names I recognized that I'd never expect to be on a GOP list until I saw one major indicator that would explain it. I'm not going to bet against Bill here, but I don't expect this to be a repeat of Joe Hune vs Paul Rogers.  

Update 8-30-2012 - Bill Rogers wins the primary. 

2010 Results - Old District (66th)
Bill Rogers - 23,480
James Delcamp - 8,246

The new 42th is descended from the old 66th district in Livingston County. This district changed slightly with redistricting. It dropped Milford to the 44th district. It dropped Oceola Twp and Marion Twp to the 47th district with Cindy Denby. It picks up Hamburg and Putnam Townshops from Denby. This new district is much less republican than it was previously, but Brighton and Genoa Townships will carry this even in bad year barring a Don Sherwood level of disaster. I think the last time a dem won this district was maybe  1990 or more likely 1986 for Frank Kelley.

Bill Rogers has one more term left, then this district will open up.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Brighton 1984 2097 4081 -113 48.62% 51.38% -2.77%
Brighton Twp 6589 4188 10777 2401 61.14% 38.86% 22.28%
Genoa Twp 6592 4502 11094 2090 59.42% 40.58% 18.84%
Green Oak Twp 5522 4395 9917 1127 55.68% 44.32% 11.36%
Hamburg Twp 6355 5922 12277 433 51.76% 48.24% 3.53%
Putnam Twp 2210 2157 4367 53 50.61% 49.39% 1.21%
Total 29252 23261 52513 5991 55.70% 44.30% 11.41%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Brighton 2226 1763 3989 463 55.80% 44.20% 11.61%
Brighton Twp 6977 3525 10502 3452 66.43% 33.57% 32.87%
Genoa Twp 7081 3608 10689 3473 66.25% 33.75% 32.49%
Green Oak Twp 5779 3618 9397 2161 61.50% 38.50% 23.00%
Hamburg Twp 6933 4933 11866 2000 58.43% 41.57% 16.85%
Putnam Twp 2417 1792 4209 625 57.42% 42.58% 14.85%
Total 31413 19239 50652 12174 62.02% 37.98% 24.03%








Last State House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Brighton 1747 950 2697 797 64.78% 35.22% 29.55%
Brighton Twp 5585 1827 7412 3758 75.35% 24.65% 50.70%
Genoa Twp 5692 1806 7498 3886 75.91% 24.09% 51.83%
Green Oak Twp 4603 1888 6491 2715 70.91% 29.09% 41.83%
Hamburg Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Putnam Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 17627 6471 24098 11156 73.15% 26.85% 46.29%

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