Friday, November 25, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 39 (HD-39)

State House - District 39
Current Reps - Open or Lisa Brown (D-West Bloomfield)

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Klint Kesto (R-Commerce),
Dem - Pam Jackson (D-Commerce)

Update 5-26-2012 - Interesting matchups. There's a primary on both sides.  I think this open seat leans slightly GOP without Brown, but with a six way primary, this is going to be interesting. Jackson on the dem side ran for state senate in 2010. She lost big, but that was partly due to the district and the year.

Update 8-30-2012 - Pam Jackson and Klint Kesto won the primaries. This one I think should stay ours, but keep an eye on it.

2010 Results - Old District (39th)
Lisa Brown - 17,137
Lois Shulman - 17,051

Redistricting split West Bloomfield more as a East/West split instead of a North/South split so I'm not sure if Brown is in the 39th or 40th district.

This race has been down to the wire the last three elections. West Bloomfield is usually solidly democrat and Commerce Township is usually solidly Republican. The new district adds Wixom and takes slightly less of West Bloomfield. Wixom used to be leaning republican, but went democrat in 2008 due to a high turnout in the apartments area. Wixom is split politically with the republican north and the democrat south.

Dave's redistricting has this seat at about 52% Obama. I think the Dem/GOP numbers in reality are lower than that. In an "average" year, West Bloomfield is about 56% dem overall and Wixom probably 54-55% GOP. The parts of West Bloomfield dropped from the old district run about 65%+ Obama. I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP takes this seat in 2012.

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