Congressional District 6 - Updated (MI-06)

2014 Update:
Fred Upton has another primary. This time it is Jim Bussler, a nurse out of Dowagiac. Upton has had tough primaries over some votes in the past, but has survived them, even when others like Joe Schwarz did not. The dems are running Paul Clements, a sacrificial lamb candidate. However, nothing is 100% here with Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor.

MI-06 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Fred Upton  (R-St Joseph)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 28

Challengers – Jim Bussler (R-Dowagiac), Paul Clements (D-Kalamazoo)

2012:

Fred Upton – 174955 – 54.59%

Mike O’Brien  – 136536 – 42.61%

38392 vote difference

Romney –  162809 votes – 50.08%

Obama –  159024 votes – 48.76%

4413 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 155186 votes – 45.09%

Obama – 182750 votes – 53.24%

-28063  vote difference

2004:

Bush – 175704 votes – 53.73%

Kerry – 148028 votes – 45.27%

27676 vote difference

This district is – on paper – a swing district. It has some strong GOP and strong democrat areas and is usually close in presidential elections. On paper is what’s key. Despite being competitive in presidential races, the only base that elects state reps is in the City of Kalamazoo. They have no democrat state senate districts (although contend for one all elections) and only have one state rep. That’s not to say that we don’t need to keep an eye on things here.

Fred Upton’s a moderate republican whose toughest election was 2012. It was his first general election win with less than 55% of the vote. He did better in even 2006 and 2008, overall horrific years. Conservatives never were enamored with him. Liberals aren’t crossing over for him as they used to. He’s biggest strength is in his home area of St Joe in Berrien County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in District 5. I did three maps here because this district is so close in 2012. 04 was the high side recently, and 2012 is the low side.  The maps are in order of most recent election of the three. I don’t have exact Holland borders here because of the city re-precincting names between 08-12. I may be slightly off with Berrien County townships as well. The last two maps cut off the top part of Allegan County. It’s mostly 70%+ across the board every election.

 

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green (City of Hartford in Van Buren County)

2012:

 

2008:

2004:

Starting at the top with Allegan County. Allegan County has part Holland influence, part Grand Rapids influence, and part Kalamazoo influence. Allegan County is a GOP Stronghold at 59%, but looking at the microlevel, you’ll see that the dems are not without strength here. The GOP is strong because that Northern tier is absolutely blood red. Overisel Twp is the 2^nd most GOP township in the state in 2012 (at times it is first). That’s as much a part of the Dutch area as Ottawa County is. The southern tier is competitive, although Bush almost swept it in 2004. Bush did extremely well in the competitive areas. Of the areas Romney lost, Bush won Allegan, Cheshire Twp, Clyde Twp, Fennville, Otsego, Otsego Twp, Plainwell, and the portion of South Haven. He lost Lee Twp, Saugatuck, and Saugatuck Twp. Douglas wasn’t incorporated as a city then and part of Saugatuck Twp, so he probably lost that too.

The dems have Saugatuck/Douglas which is the gay capital of West Michigan (or so I’ve heard.) Fennville has a large Mexican population as does Clyde and Lee Townships. I’m not 100% sure, but I think Plainwell and Otsego have union presence. It’s also close to Kalamazoo. South Haven is dem, but it’s not as bad as it looks. Obama got 70% in the Allegan part, but that’s due to winning 5-2. (It’s usually 50-55% dem citywide) Still, we’re bleeding here. Bush got 62.52% here in the district part of Allegan (almost all of it). McCain dropped to 54.08%. Romney got 59.22 in a recovery, but there’s still a lot more blue here than 2004. The dems are making inroads. Are we in danger of losing this county? No way – not with the northern part of the county. Will that southern tier factor in a congressional race? That’s a possibility, when you have Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor in the district.

Kalamazoo County is the biggest part of the district. It’s also trending to the left. It was close to 50/50 in 2000. It was 51/47 in 2004. 59/39 in 08. Romney controlled some of the bleeding and it’s now 56/43. Downticket, it’s not AS bad, but still a cause of concern. I don’t know this county as well as blogger Conservative First from the Western Right blog. He can correct any errors I have here. Bush lost only four municipalities in 2004. Romney lost seven. (McCain 9). The four Bush lost are Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, and Galesburg. Kalamazoo City is a dem stronghold. You have WMU in the western part of the city, and a high black population in the north end. Kalamazoo Twp has some of those same areas to a lesser extent. The problem today is that Bush’s 32% (-10,000 vote spread) and 41% (-1760) are now Romney’s 24.50% (-14662) and 33%. (-3477). Oshtemo and Comstock townships are to the West and East. Oshtemo Twp is WMU country. It’s gone from close to 50/50 to 57% dem. Galesburg is blue, but not by a giant margin. It’s those three municipalities Romney lost that Bush didn’t that scare me. Portage, Comstock Twp, and Parchment. Those are three suburbs that border Kalamazoo. I don’t know those suburbs in depth except that Portage is the 2^nd largest city in the county. It’s always been close, but Bush won it twice. Parchment is rapidly going blue. Romney did worse than McCain there. I don’t know much about Comstock outside of Bell’s beer. It’s still close. Those three areas are the key to reducing losses in the county. We have to do so here.

St Joseph County (City is in Berrien County) to the Southeast I know very little about and I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country. The only area that went for Obama was Three Rivers. Bush did very well in the rural parts of SW and South Central Michigan along the I-94 corridor and I-69 N/S Corridor – much better than both Romney and McCain. Romney won it with 55.55%, but Bush broke 60% here. McCain cratered and barely won it. Three Rivers is reliably dem. Romney and Bush both won the rest of the area, although Bush to a much larger degree.

Cass County to the West I know very little about. I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country, and it was a major stop on the Underground Railroad. It has a sizable black population for a rural county (Dowagiac, Cassopolis and Vandalia) that goes back 150 years, although the population is much lower than Berrien County. It’s also prone to wild election swings. Bush and Romney got 57 and 56% with a similar number of votes. Bush struggled here more in 2000. McCain cratered here with 46.89%. McCain didn’t break 57% in any municipality. Romney broke 60%+ in 6 of them, Bush in 5 of them. McCain lost 8 municipalities, Romney lost three and Bush lost two. LaGrange Twp and Dowagiac are the constant dem areas. Calvin Twp went for Obama twice, but Bush won it in 2004. In a district like the 6^th, this is a key area for the R’s.

Van Buren County is erratic, but has had a bit of a blue taint lately. There’s a sizable Chicago influence here, and no Benton Harbor to counter-influence. The Mexican population has increased here as well with the farms. Bush won the area narrowly. Romney lost it by 160 votes. Obama won Antwerp Twp twice. Covert twp is heavily minority. South Haven is a former small industrial area now a tourist haven for Chicagoland. Bangor, Decatur Twp, Geneva Twp, Paw Paw Twp, and South Haven City/Twp have gone dem the last three presidential elections, mostly narrowly in Bush’s case, but less so for Romney. It’s been close in elections since 92, and is a key county in this district. Hopefully Obama being gone will flip this district as Chicago homerism is less of a factor.

Lastly, Berrien County is the battle of strongholds. It’s the Southwest corner of Michigan, and you are as likely to see Chicago sports teams supported as Detroit teams. New Buffalo is about an hour away from there, and there’s a lot of vacation homes there. Niles is across the border from South Bend, which is the closest major city. There are a couple swing areas that are competitive, like Buchanan and New Buffalo, but most of this district is heavily red or blue. A candidate wins by turning out the base and narrowing the wins in other parts of the district. The three strongholds for the dems here are Benton Harbor, Benton Township, and to a much lesser extent, Niles. Niles sometimes is close. Benton Township/Benton Harbor is majority black and votes accordingly. Obama won the township with about 75%, and the city 97%+ the last two elections. Kerry won the two areas by 5800, Obama in 2008 by 7900 and in 2012 by 6600. Lincoln Township is the big Republican stronghold, along with many of  the smaller townships (60%+). They also do well in St Joseph (almost always called St Joe) by a lesser amount. Bush won the county by 8200 votes, McCain lost by 4200, and Romney won by 4700. It leans R, but not safe. This is also a key county in the district if it opens up. Obama being gone may make this more Republican as Chicago homerism wanes. 

District 6	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Allegan County
Allegan	765	989	1790	-224	42.74%	55.25%
Allegan Twp	987	953	1967	34	50.18%	48.45%
Casco Twp	707	689	1412	18	50.07%	48.80%
Cheshire Twp	420	441	874	-21	48.05%	50.46%
Clyde Twp	326	400	744	-74	43.82%	53.76%
Door Twp	2545	1124	3728	1421	68.27%	30.15%
Douglas	266	447	719	-181	37.00%	62.17%
Fennville	162	243	415	-81	39.04%	58.55%
Fillmore Twp	1184	240	1436	944	82.45%	16.71%
Ganges Twp	693	655	1363	38	50.84%	48.06%
Gunplain Twp	1560	1398	2994	162	52.10%	46.69%
Heath Twp	1267	400	1695	867	74.75%	23.60%
Holland 9-4	555	320	886	235	62.64%	36.12%
Holland 11-5	511	331	852	180	59.98%	38.85%
Holland 12-5	691	269	964	422	71.68%	27.90%
Hopkins Twp	817	450	1277	367	63.98%	35.24%
Laketown Twp	2433	1172	3631	1261	67.01%	32.28%
Lee Twp	395	480	889	-85	44.43%	53.99%
Leighton Twp	1954	607	2585	1347	75.59%	23.48%
Manlius Twp	1023	475	1505	548	67.97%	31.56%
Martin Twp	746	420	1183	326	63.06%	35.50%
Monterey Twp	631	374	1031	257	61.20%	36.28%
Otsego	700	852	1576	-152	44.42%	54.06%
Otsego Twp	1238	1245	2522	-7	49.09%	49.37%
Overisel Twp	1372	223	1619	1149	84.74%	13.77%
Plainwell	761	882	1662	-121	45.79%	53.07%
Salem Twp	1606	544	2180	1062	73.67%	24.95%
Saugatuck	230	357	598	-127	38.46%	59.70%
Saugatuck Twp	874	907	1797	-33	48.64%	50.47%
South Haven (part)	2	5	7	-3	28.57%	71.43%
Trowbridge Twp	600	525	1153	75	52.04%	45.53%
Valley Twp	474	385	876	89	54.11%	43.95%
Watson Twp	509	392	913	117	55.75%	42.94%
Wayland	899	719	1644	180	54.68%	43.73%
Wayland Twp	885	602	1499	283	59.04%	40.16%
Total	30788	20515	51986	10273	59.22%	39.46%
Berrien County
Bainbridge Twp	976	405	1397	571	69.86%	28.99%
Baroda Twp	908	453	1379	455	65.84%	32.85%
Benton Harbor	92	3797	3906	-3705	2.36%	97.21%
Benton Township	1461	4393	5893	-2932	24.79%	74.55%
Berrien Twp	1400	802	2234	598	62.67%	35.90%
Bertrand Twp	902	495	1408	407	64.06%	35.16%
Bridgman	664	455	1134	209	58.55%	40.12%
Buchanan	909	887	1829	22	49.70%	48.50%
Buchanan Twp	1011	604	1638	407	61.72%	36.87%
Chikaming Twp	928	863	1818	65	51.05%	47.47%
Coloma	434	264	705	170	61.56%	37.45%
Coloma Twp	1494	728	2237	766	66.79%	32.54%
Galien Twp	342	269	617	73	55.43%	43.60%
Hagar Twp	1002	622	1648	380	60.80%	37.74%
Lake Twp	1060	613	1699	447	62.39%	36.08%
Lincoln Twp	5367	2589	8044	2778	66.72%	32.19%
New Buffalo	423	493	923	-70	45.83%	53.41%
New Buffalo Twp	646	655	1321	-9	48.90%	49.58%
Niles	1876	2320	4242	-444	44.22%	54.69%
Niles Twp	3250	2650	5969	600	54.45%	44.40%
Oronoko Twp	1802	1543	3402	259	52.97%	45.36%
Pipestone Twp	707	336	1057	371	66.89%	31.79%
Royalton Twp	1916	742	2670	1174	71.76%	27.79%
Sodus Twp	606	363	983	243	61.65%	36.93%
St Joseph	2364	1937	4357	427	54.26%	44.46%
St Joseph Twp	3398	2543	5990	855	56.73%	42.45%
Three Oaks Twp	643	574	1247	69	51.56%	46.03%
Watervliet	329	258	596	71	55.20%	43.29%
Watervliet Twp	748	449	1214	299	61.61%	36.99%
Weesaw Twp	551	363	937	188	58.80%	38.74%
Total	38209	33465	72494	4744	52.71%	46.16%
Cass County
Calvin Twp	405	454	871	-49	46.50%	52.12%
Dowagiac	712	1258	1981	-546	35.94%	63.50%
Howard Twp	1602	1266	2902	336	55.20%	43.63%
Jefferson Twp	665	487	1166	178	57.03%	41.77%
LaGrange Twp	614	827	1452	-213	42.29%	56.96%
Marcellus Twp	511	484	1008	27	50.69%	48.02%
Mason Twp	685	371	1066	314	64.26%	34.80%
Milton Twp	1047	502	1565	545	66.90%	32.08%
Newberg Twp	395	313	717	82	55.09%	43.65%
Ontwa Twp	1862	1010	2900	852	64.21%	34.83%
Penn Twp	537	351	897	186	59.87%	39.13%
Pokagon Twp	515	426	956	89	53.87%	44.56%
Porter Twp	1262	584	1863	678	67.74%	31.35%
Silver Creek Twp	908	562	1488	346	61.02%	37.77%
Volinia Twp	314	192	513	122	61.21%	37.43%
Wayne Twp	625	504	1145	121	54.59%	44.02%
Total	12659	9591	22490	3068	56.29%	42.65%
Kalamazoo County
Alamo Twp	1271	897	2185	374	58.17%	41.05%
Brady Twp	1392	945	2364	447	58.88%	39.97%
Charleston Twp	575	441	1039	134	55.34%	42.44%
Climax Twp	736	490	1235	246	59.60%	39.68%
Comstock Twp	3622	3993	7708	-371	46.99%	51.80%
Cooper Twp	2735	2608	5409	127	50.56%	48.22%
Galesburg	307	365	682	-58	45.01%	53.52%
Kalamazoo	7280	21942	29671	-14662	24.54%	73.95%
Kalamazoo Twp	3469	6946	10547	-3477	32.89%	65.86%
Oshtemo Twp	4600	6252	10959	-1652	41.97%	57.05%
Parchment	369	534	912	-165	40.46%	58.55%
Pavilion Twp	1589	1358	2980	231	53.32%	45.57%
Portage	11918	12966	25178	-1048	47.33%	51.50%
Prairie Ronde Twp	824	458	1289	366	63.93%	35.53%
Richland Twp	2462	1898	4406	564	55.88%	43.08%
Ross Twp	1747	1251	3016	496	57.92%	41.48%
Schoolcraft Twp	2299	1877	4230	422	54.35%	44.37%
Texas Twp	5070	3616	8753	1454	57.92%	41.31%
Wakeshima Twp	397	214	615	183	64.55%	34.80%
Total	52662	69051	123178	-16389	42.75%	56.06%
St Joseph County
Burr Oak Twp	568	417	995	151	57.09%	41.91%
Colon Twp	685	544	1243	141	55.11%	43.77%
Constantine Twp	862	658	1535	204	56.16%	42.87%
Fabius Twp	946	682	1644	264	57.54%	41.48%
Fawn River Twp	393	242	642	151	61.21%	37.69%
Florence Twp	329	188	524	141	62.79%	35.88%
Flowerfield Twp	393	315	715	78	54.97%	44.06%
Leonidias Twp	291	160	465	131	62.58%	34.41%
Lockport Twp	875	824	1717	51	50.96%	47.99%
Mendon Twp	641	608	1263	33	50.75%	48.14%
Mottville Twp	334	229	586	105	57.00%	39.08%
Nottawa Twp	791	603	1403	188	56.38%	42.98%
Park Twp	702	534	1251	168	56.12%	42.69%
Sherman Twp	1015	534	1559	481	65.11%	34.25%
Sturgis	1746	1304	3085	442	56.60%	42.27%
Sturgis Twp	487	298	795	189	61.26%	37.48%
Three Rivers	986	1443	2470	-457	39.92%	58.42%
White Pigeon Twp	934	529	1469	405	63.58%	36.01%
Total	12978	10112	23361	2866	55.55%	43.29%
Van Buren County
Almena Twp	1391	1291	2712	100	51.29%	47.60%
Antwerp Twp	2846	2892	5805	-46	49.03%	49.82%
Arlington Twp	437	380	830	57	52.65%	45.78%
Bangor	227	373	605	-146	37.52%	61.65%
Bangor Twp	431	334	774	97	55.68%	43.15%
Bloomingdale Twp	644	612	1270	32	50.71%	48.19%
Columbia Twp	492	486	989	6	49.75%	49.14%
Covert Twp	258	714	980	-456	26.33%	72.86%
Decatur Twp	675	769	1465	-94	46.08%	52.49%
Geneva Twp	664	731	1409	-67	47.13%	51.88%
Gobles	176	143	332	33	53.01%	43.07%
Hamilton Twp	328	325	660	3	49.70%	49.24%
Hartford	362	362	733	0	49.39%	49.39%
Hartford Twp	628	417	1060	211	59.25%	39.34%
Keeler Twp	558	392	970	166	57.53%	40.41%
Lawrence Twp	699	583	1299	116	53.81%	44.88%
Paw Paw Twp	1384	1528	2947	-144	46.96%	51.85%
Pine Grove Twp	773	613	1411	160	54.78%	43.44%
Porter Twp	689	613	1321	76	52.16%	46.40%
South Haven	1060	1328	2403	-268	44.11%	55.26%
South Haven Twp	861	876	1760	-15	48.92%	49.77%
Waverly Twp	558	528	1102	30	50.64%	47.91%
Total	16141	16290	32837	-149	49.15%	49.61%
Total All	163437	159024	326346	4413	50.08%	48.73%

Congressional District 6 - Redistricted (MI-06)

Incumbent - Fred Upton (R-St Joseph)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 26.
The old 6th District information is here

Challengers - Mike O'Brien (D-Douglas)

Update 8-30-2012 - Fred Upton won his primary in an easier than expected win. 

UPDATE 5-1-2012 -  Jack Hoogendyk has filed a primary challenge to Fred Upton in a rematch of 2010. Upton won the primary last time, but it was not by as large of margin as one would expect. 

This is a largely unchanged district. It drops two townships in Calhoun County to Justin Amash, and gains most of the rest of Allegan County outside the City of Holland (mostly in Ottawa County), which happens to be the most Republican portion of the county, and possibly the most Republican area of the state. Some of those areas are 80%+ GOP most years. That significantly helps Upton, who is in a very difficult district on paper. Upton himself wins easily. His replacement will have a much tougher time.

Kalamazoo County is democrat leaning, although most of the suburbs are competitive, and some of them are republican. Jack Hoogendyk won a difficult district three times, and that stayed GOP when he left. Jace Bolger's district is less difficult but not easy on paper, and that's been GOP for a long time. Tom George and Tonya Schuitmaker won a very difficult countywide state senate district that leans democrat on paper. There is a different in presidential years and non-presidential years in Kalamazoo County with the WMU voters. Van Buren and Cass Counties are almost always close. Berrien and St Joseph Counties are usually republican leaning, although not in 2008. Berrien County does have a democrat stronghold in Benton Harbor/Benton Township with Niles also leaning democrat. The burbs usually outvote the cities.

The old district had a 20000 vote spread for Bush and 32000 vote spread for Obama. The new district solely thanks to the Allegan County help had about a 27000 vote spread for Bush and 28000 vote spread for Obama. It's still a difficult district, but there's less chance to get caught offguard. Upton's weakest percentage overall in the last district is about 58% in 2008. Here's the numbers. I'm using Upton's 08 numbers because it's the same opponent in 2010 (Don Cooney) and shows more individual strength.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan County	30061	24165	54226	5896	55.44%	44.56%	10.87%
Holland City	-2093	-1391	-3484	-702	60.07%	39.93%	20.15%
Berrien County	36130	40381	76511	-4251	47.22%	52.78%	-5.56%
Cass County	11114	12083	23197	-969	47.91%	52.09%	-4.18%
Kalamazoo County	51554	77051	128605	-25497	40.09%	59.91%	-19.83%
St Joseph County	12886	12322	25208	564	51.12%	48.88%	2.24%
Van Buren County	15534	18588	34122	-3054	45.52%	54.48%	-8.95%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	155186	183199	338385	-28013	45.86%	54.14%	-8.28%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan County	34022	19355	53377	14667	63.74%	36.26%	27.48%
Holland City	-2479	-941	-3420	-1538	72.49%	27.51%	44.97%
Berrien County	41076	32846	73922	8230	55.57%	44.43%	11.13%
Cass County	12964	9537	22501	3427	57.62%	42.38%	15.23%
Kalamazoo County	57147	61462	118609	-4315	48.18%	51.82%	-3.64%
St Joseph County	15340	9648	24988	5692	61.39%	38.61%	22.78%
Van Buren County	17634	16151	33785	1483	52.19%	47.81%	4.39%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	175704	148058	323762	27646	54.27%	45.73%	8.54%
2008
	Upton	Cooney	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan County	19733	10777	30510	8956	64.68%	35.32%	29.35%
Holland City	0	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berrien County	46007	28530	74537	17477	61.72%	38.28%	23.45%
Cass County	14234	8148	22382	6086	63.60%	36.40%	27.19%
Kalamazoo County	68028	55599	123627	12429	55.03%	44.97%	10.05%
St Joseph County	17676	6925	24601	10751	71.85%	28.15%	43.70%
Van Buren County	20628	12461	33089	8167	62.34%	37.66%	24.68%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	186306	122440	308746	63866	60.34%	39.66%	20.69%

Filing Deadline Passes - Preliminary Report (Unofficial) - Primary 2010

The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 primary. It was at 4PM. There may be some paperwork going between the clerks and the Secretary of State Office, but here's a presumptive list of who is in and out from the Secretary of State


The Gubernatorial Candidates are:
GOP - Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder. There was talk about a couple of other longshots, but it's not happening. The petition requirements was the first elimination bout.

DEM - Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero. Alma Wheeler Smith dropped out. Geoff Fieger said he wasn't running. No Bob Bowman or anybody else.

It's a two way primary for the dems and a five way primary for the GOP

I'll update the congressional districts again when I have a chance to list who is in/out. It looks like we'll be seeing:

1st District (MI-01) - Open seat
GOP - Six way primary between Jason Allen, Dan Benishek, Patrick Donlon, Linda Goldthorpe, Don Hooper, and Tom Stillings.

Dem - Gary McDowell. I don't see Matt Gillard there. If McDowell has a free pass, this could be trouble for us. Major coup for McDowell (who is Stupak's guy) if he avoids a primary.


2nd District (MI-02) - Open seat
GOP - Seven way primary between Bill Cooper, Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Chris Larson, Field Reichardt, Jay Riemersma, and Ted Schendel.

Dem - Primary between Fred Johnson and Nicolette McClure.

Interesting matchups for the primary here. Holland dominates the district for the GOP. Muskegon dominates for the dems, but no Muskegon democrat is running. All of the GOP candidates are from Holland except Bill Cooper (Muskegon County) and Ted Schendel from Benzie County. For the dems, Fred Johnson is from Holland and McClure is from Lake County.

3rd District (MI-03) - Open Seat

GOP - Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, Steven Heacock, Louise Johnson, and Bob Overbeek

Dem - Paul Mayhue and Pat Miles

The interesting this here is does Grand Rapids follow the "It's his turn" format as it has done for years. It looks like the "his turn" views are split between Hardiman and Heacock. That leaves an opening for Amash who is the upstart who may cause an upset.

4th District (MI-04) - Incumbent Dave Camp

GOP - Dave Camp of Midland
Dem - Jerry Campbell of St Helen

5th District (MI-05 ) - Incumbent Dale Kildee
GOP - John Kupiec and Rick Wilson, both of Grand Blanc
Dem - Dale Kildee of Flint and Scott Withers of Vassar

I don't see how a primary challenge from Tuscola County will be a big threat to Kildee, who is probably the most popular pol in Flint. One thing to watch however is the UAW membership and their response to Obama's health care takeover. A lot of the retirees and workers are scared to death about the UAW putting them all on the government plan.

6th District (MI-06) - Incumbent Fred Upton

GOP - Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo and Fred Upton of St Joe
Dem - Don Cooney of Kalamazoo

This will be interesting. Upton has had issues with his right flank in the past, and this is the year of the anti-incumbent as Bob Bennett in Utah showed. Jack Hoogendyk has a lot of grass roots support and may actually pull this off if he gets traction. Cooney is stronger than most democrats on the congressional level in this district. Don't sleep on him either.

7th District (MI-07) - Incumbent Mark Schauer

GOP - Marvin Carlson of Manchester, Brian Rooney of Dexter, and Tim Walberg of Tipton
Dem - Mark Schauer of Battle Creek

This is the best chance of a pickup among the GOP. Rooney just moved to the district, but does have an interesting background with pro-life organizations and backstory, the Steelers, and his Iraq service. Carlson is a businessman. Walberg is a conservative's conservative and has proven it over a period of years, and always gets more support than polling and finances suggest. Walberg did what no one has done yet, defeated Doug Spade. He would have won if the NRCC didn't abandon him in 08.

8th District - Incumbent Mike Rogers
GOP - Mike Rogers of Brighton/Howell
Dem - Kande Ngalamulume of Lansing

Blue Cross Kande vs Mike.

9th District - Incumbent Gary Peters

GOP - Anna Janek of West Bloomfield, Richard Kuhn of Waterford, Andrew Rocky Raczkowski of Farmington Hills, Paul Welday of Farmington Hills.

Dem - Gary Peters

This is our 2nd best shot for a pickup after the 7th. Peters is a 1st term incumbent who was a complete yesman without an original thought. What Pelosi wanted, Peters delivered, including Cap and Trade along with Obama's health care takeover in a district which was HQ for Chrysler, and has a GM plant.

10th District - Incumbent Candice Miller

GOP - Candice Miller of Harrison Township
Dem - Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights

11th District - Incumbent Thad McCotter
GOP - Thad McCotter of Livonia
Dem - Natalie Mosher of Canton

This is one to watch for defense purposes. McCotter had a tough go in 08, despite running way ahead of the top of the ticket.

12th District - Incumbent Sander Levin
GOP - Don Volaric of Clinton Township
Dem - Sander Levin or Royal Oak and Mickey Switalski of Roseville

This is interesting for two reasons. Levin has his toughest primary in ages. Switalski has won a ton of races in Macomb County. As Michigan lost a congressional seat, Levin's district had to be pushed further into Macomb County, which isn't his main territory. Can Volaric take advantage of that?

13th District - Incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
GOP - John Hauler of Grosse Pointe Woods
Dem - Vincent Brown of Garden City?(Garden City is in the 11th), Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume, and Carolyn Kilpatrick, and Glenn Plummer of Detroit.

Kilpatrick is in big trouble this August. If it wasn't for straight ticket voting, I'd give Hauler a 35% shot in the general for "Bill Jefferson" reasons, but the straight ticket zombies who don't even read the ballot make it about a 5% shot for a pickup.

14th District - Incumbent John Conyers
GOP - Pauline Montie of Southgate
Dem - John Conyers of Detroit

I figured someone would take on Conyers in the primary after his wife making the news as a city councilcritter. The straight ticket zombies rule applies here too, as it does in the 13th district (and 5th, 12th, and 15th for that matter)

15th District - Incumbent John Dingell
GOP - Tony Amorose of Southgate, John Lynch of Ypsilanti, John Materyn of Brownstown Township, Majed Moughni of Dearborn, and Rob Steele of Ypsi
Dem - John Dingell of Dearborn.

I'm a bit surprised at a five way primary here. Maybe something is bursting in this district as blowback against the Ann Arbor leftists.

Closer to home in Livingston County, these are the presumed matchups:

State Senate 22nd District - Open
GOP - Joe Hune v Paul Rogers
Dem - Chuck Fellows

State Rep 47th District - Incumbent Cindy Denby
GOP - Cindy Denby
Dem - Garry Post

State Rep 66th District - Incumbent Bill Rogers
GOP - Bill Rogers
Dem - James Delcamp

County Commissioners
District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Incumbent Maggie Jones
GOP - Maggie Jones and Nancy Hill
Dem - None

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Incumbent Jim Mantey
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Incumbent Dave Domas
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten
Unopposed

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
Incumbent - Steve Williams
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

Judges - No opposition.

I'll take a closer look at the county commissioner and local races as time goes by, but here's the unofficial final list after the filing deadline.