Congressional District 6 - Updated (MI-06)

2014 Update:
Fred Upton has another primary. This time it is Jim Bussler, a nurse out of Dowagiac. Upton has had tough primaries over some votes in the past, but has survived them, even when others like Joe Schwarz did not. The dems are running Paul Clements, a sacrificial lamb candidate. However, nothing is 100% here with Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor.

MI-06 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Fred Upton  (R-St Joseph)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 28

Challengers – Jim Bussler (R-Dowagiac), Paul Clements (D-Kalamazoo)

2012:

Fred Upton – 174955 – 54.59%

Mike O’Brien  – 136536 – 42.61%

38392 vote difference

Romney –  162809 votes – 50.08%

Obama –  159024 votes – 48.76%

4413 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 155186 votes – 45.09%

Obama – 182750 votes – 53.24%

-28063  vote difference

2004:

Bush – 175704 votes – 53.73%

Kerry – 148028 votes – 45.27%

27676 vote difference

This district is – on paper – a swing district. It has some strong GOP and strong democrat areas and is usually close in presidential elections. On paper is what’s key. Despite being competitive in presidential races, the only base that elects state reps is in the City of Kalamazoo. They have no democrat state senate districts (although contend for one all elections) and only have one state rep. That’s not to say that we don’t need to keep an eye on things here.

Fred Upton’s a moderate republican whose toughest election was 2012. It was his first general election win with less than 55% of the vote. He did better in even 2006 and 2008, overall horrific years. Conservatives never were enamored with him. Liberals aren’t crossing over for him as they used to. He’s biggest strength is in his home area of St Joe in Berrien County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in District 5. I did three maps here because this district is so close in 2012. 04 was the high side recently, and 2012 is the low side.  The maps are in order of most recent election of the three. I don’t have exact Holland borders here because of the city re-precincting names between 08-12. I may be slightly off with Berrien County townships as well. The last two maps cut off the top part of Allegan County. It’s mostly 70%+ across the board every election.

 

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green (City of Hartford in Van Buren County)

2012:

 

2008:

2004:

Starting at the top with Allegan County. Allegan County has part Holland influence, part Grand Rapids influence, and part Kalamazoo influence. Allegan County is a GOP Stronghold at 59%, but looking at the microlevel, you’ll see that the dems are not without strength here. The GOP is strong because that Northern tier is absolutely blood red. Overisel Twp is the 2^nd most GOP township in the state in 2012 (at times it is first). That’s as much a part of the Dutch area as Ottawa County is. The southern tier is competitive, although Bush almost swept it in 2004. Bush did extremely well in the competitive areas. Of the areas Romney lost, Bush won Allegan, Cheshire Twp, Clyde Twp, Fennville, Otsego, Otsego Twp, Plainwell, and the portion of South Haven. He lost Lee Twp, Saugatuck, and Saugatuck Twp. Douglas wasn’t incorporated as a city then and part of Saugatuck Twp, so he probably lost that too.

The dems have Saugatuck/Douglas which is the gay capital of West Michigan (or so I’ve heard.) Fennville has a large Mexican population as does Clyde and Lee Townships. I’m not 100% sure, but I think Plainwell and Otsego have union presence. It’s also close to Kalamazoo. South Haven is dem, but it’s not as bad as it looks. Obama got 70% in the Allegan part, but that’s due to winning 5-2. (It’s usually 50-55% dem citywide) Still, we’re bleeding here. Bush got 62.52% here in the district part of Allegan (almost all of it). McCain dropped to 54.08%. Romney got 59.22 in a recovery, but there’s still a lot more blue here than 2004. The dems are making inroads. Are we in danger of losing this county? No way – not with the northern part of the county. Will that southern tier factor in a congressional race? That’s a possibility, when you have Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor in the district.

Kalamazoo County is the biggest part of the district. It’s also trending to the left. It was close to 50/50 in 2000. It was 51/47 in 2004. 59/39 in 08. Romney controlled some of the bleeding and it’s now 56/43. Downticket, it’s not AS bad, but still a cause of concern. I don’t know this county as well as blogger Conservative First from the Western Right blog. He can correct any errors I have here. Bush lost only four municipalities in 2004. Romney lost seven. (McCain 9). The four Bush lost are Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, and Galesburg. Kalamazoo City is a dem stronghold. You have WMU in the western part of the city, and a high black population in the north end. Kalamazoo Twp has some of those same areas to a lesser extent. The problem today is that Bush’s 32% (-10,000 vote spread) and 41% (-1760) are now Romney’s 24.50% (-14662) and 33%. (-3477). Oshtemo and Comstock townships are to the West and East. Oshtemo Twp is WMU country. It’s gone from close to 50/50 to 57% dem. Galesburg is blue, but not by a giant margin. It’s those three municipalities Romney lost that Bush didn’t that scare me. Portage, Comstock Twp, and Parchment. Those are three suburbs that border Kalamazoo. I don’t know those suburbs in depth except that Portage is the 2^nd largest city in the county. It’s always been close, but Bush won it twice. Parchment is rapidly going blue. Romney did worse than McCain there. I don’t know much about Comstock outside of Bell’s beer. It’s still close. Those three areas are the key to reducing losses in the county. We have to do so here.

St Joseph County (City is in Berrien County) to the Southeast I know very little about and I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country. The only area that went for Obama was Three Rivers. Bush did very well in the rural parts of SW and South Central Michigan along the I-94 corridor and I-69 N/S Corridor – much better than both Romney and McCain. Romney won it with 55.55%, but Bush broke 60% here. McCain cratered and barely won it. Three Rivers is reliably dem. Romney and Bush both won the rest of the area, although Bush to a much larger degree.

Cass County to the West I know very little about. I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country, and it was a major stop on the Underground Railroad. It has a sizable black population for a rural county (Dowagiac, Cassopolis and Vandalia) that goes back 150 years, although the population is much lower than Berrien County. It’s also prone to wild election swings. Bush and Romney got 57 and 56% with a similar number of votes. Bush struggled here more in 2000. McCain cratered here with 46.89%. McCain didn’t break 57% in any municipality. Romney broke 60%+ in 6 of them, Bush in 5 of them. McCain lost 8 municipalities, Romney lost three and Bush lost two. LaGrange Twp and Dowagiac are the constant dem areas. Calvin Twp went for Obama twice, but Bush won it in 2004. In a district like the 6^th, this is a key area for the R’s.

Van Buren County is erratic, but has had a bit of a blue taint lately. There’s a sizable Chicago influence here, and no Benton Harbor to counter-influence. The Mexican population has increased here as well with the farms. Bush won the area narrowly. Romney lost it by 160 votes. Obama won Antwerp Twp twice. Covert twp is heavily minority. South Haven is a former small industrial area now a tourist haven for Chicagoland. Bangor, Decatur Twp, Geneva Twp, Paw Paw Twp, and South Haven City/Twp have gone dem the last three presidential elections, mostly narrowly in Bush’s case, but less so for Romney. It’s been close in elections since 92, and is a key county in this district. Hopefully Obama being gone will flip this district as Chicago homerism is less of a factor.

Lastly, Berrien County is the battle of strongholds. It’s the Southwest corner of Michigan, and you are as likely to see Chicago sports teams supported as Detroit teams. New Buffalo is about an hour away from there, and there’s a lot of vacation homes there. Niles is across the border from South Bend, which is the closest major city. There are a couple swing areas that are competitive, like Buchanan and New Buffalo, but most of this district is heavily red or blue. A candidate wins by turning out the base and narrowing the wins in other parts of the district. The three strongholds for the dems here are Benton Harbor, Benton Township, and to a much lesser extent, Niles. Niles sometimes is close. Benton Township/Benton Harbor is majority black and votes accordingly. Obama won the township with about 75%, and the city 97%+ the last two elections. Kerry won the two areas by 5800, Obama in 2008 by 7900 and in 2012 by 6600. Lincoln Township is the big Republican stronghold, along with many of  the smaller townships (60%+). They also do well in St Joseph (almost always called St Joe) by a lesser amount. Bush won the county by 8200 votes, McCain lost by 4200, and Romney won by 4700. It leans R, but not safe. This is also a key county in the district if it opens up. Obama being gone may make this more Republican as Chicago homerism wanes. 

District 6	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Allegan County
Allegan	765	989	1790	-224	42.74%	55.25%
Allegan Twp	987	953	1967	34	50.18%	48.45%
Casco Twp	707	689	1412	18	50.07%	48.80%
Cheshire Twp	420	441	874	-21	48.05%	50.46%
Clyde Twp	326	400	744	-74	43.82%	53.76%
Door Twp	2545	1124	3728	1421	68.27%	30.15%
Douglas	266	447	719	-181	37.00%	62.17%
Fennville	162	243	415	-81	39.04%	58.55%
Fillmore Twp	1184	240	1436	944	82.45%	16.71%
Ganges Twp	693	655	1363	38	50.84%	48.06%
Gunplain Twp	1560	1398	2994	162	52.10%	46.69%
Heath Twp	1267	400	1695	867	74.75%	23.60%
Holland 9-4	555	320	886	235	62.64%	36.12%
Holland 11-5	511	331	852	180	59.98%	38.85%
Holland 12-5	691	269	964	422	71.68%	27.90%
Hopkins Twp	817	450	1277	367	63.98%	35.24%
Laketown Twp	2433	1172	3631	1261	67.01%	32.28%
Lee Twp	395	480	889	-85	44.43%	53.99%
Leighton Twp	1954	607	2585	1347	75.59%	23.48%
Manlius Twp	1023	475	1505	548	67.97%	31.56%
Martin Twp	746	420	1183	326	63.06%	35.50%
Monterey Twp	631	374	1031	257	61.20%	36.28%
Otsego	700	852	1576	-152	44.42%	54.06%
Otsego Twp	1238	1245	2522	-7	49.09%	49.37%
Overisel Twp	1372	223	1619	1149	84.74%	13.77%
Plainwell	761	882	1662	-121	45.79%	53.07%
Salem Twp	1606	544	2180	1062	73.67%	24.95%
Saugatuck	230	357	598	-127	38.46%	59.70%
Saugatuck Twp	874	907	1797	-33	48.64%	50.47%
South Haven (part)	2	5	7	-3	28.57%	71.43%
Trowbridge Twp	600	525	1153	75	52.04%	45.53%
Valley Twp	474	385	876	89	54.11%	43.95%
Watson Twp	509	392	913	117	55.75%	42.94%
Wayland	899	719	1644	180	54.68%	43.73%
Wayland Twp	885	602	1499	283	59.04%	40.16%
Total	30788	20515	51986	10273	59.22%	39.46%
Berrien County
Bainbridge Twp	976	405	1397	571	69.86%	28.99%
Baroda Twp	908	453	1379	455	65.84%	32.85%
Benton Harbor	92	3797	3906	-3705	2.36%	97.21%
Benton Township	1461	4393	5893	-2932	24.79%	74.55%
Berrien Twp	1400	802	2234	598	62.67%	35.90%
Bertrand Twp	902	495	1408	407	64.06%	35.16%
Bridgman	664	455	1134	209	58.55%	40.12%
Buchanan	909	887	1829	22	49.70%	48.50%
Buchanan Twp	1011	604	1638	407	61.72%	36.87%
Chikaming Twp	928	863	1818	65	51.05%	47.47%
Coloma	434	264	705	170	61.56%	37.45%
Coloma Twp	1494	728	2237	766	66.79%	32.54%
Galien Twp	342	269	617	73	55.43%	43.60%
Hagar Twp	1002	622	1648	380	60.80%	37.74%
Lake Twp	1060	613	1699	447	62.39%	36.08%
Lincoln Twp	5367	2589	8044	2778	66.72%	32.19%
New Buffalo	423	493	923	-70	45.83%	53.41%
New Buffalo Twp	646	655	1321	-9	48.90%	49.58%
Niles	1876	2320	4242	-444	44.22%	54.69%
Niles Twp	3250	2650	5969	600	54.45%	44.40%
Oronoko Twp	1802	1543	3402	259	52.97%	45.36%
Pipestone Twp	707	336	1057	371	66.89%	31.79%
Royalton Twp	1916	742	2670	1174	71.76%	27.79%
Sodus Twp	606	363	983	243	61.65%	36.93%
St Joseph	2364	1937	4357	427	54.26%	44.46%
St Joseph Twp	3398	2543	5990	855	56.73%	42.45%
Three Oaks Twp	643	574	1247	69	51.56%	46.03%
Watervliet	329	258	596	71	55.20%	43.29%
Watervliet Twp	748	449	1214	299	61.61%	36.99%
Weesaw Twp	551	363	937	188	58.80%	38.74%
Total	38209	33465	72494	4744	52.71%	46.16%
Cass County
Calvin Twp	405	454	871	-49	46.50%	52.12%
Dowagiac	712	1258	1981	-546	35.94%	63.50%
Howard Twp	1602	1266	2902	336	55.20%	43.63%
Jefferson Twp	665	487	1166	178	57.03%	41.77%
LaGrange Twp	614	827	1452	-213	42.29%	56.96%
Marcellus Twp	511	484	1008	27	50.69%	48.02%
Mason Twp	685	371	1066	314	64.26%	34.80%
Milton Twp	1047	502	1565	545	66.90%	32.08%
Newberg Twp	395	313	717	82	55.09%	43.65%
Ontwa Twp	1862	1010	2900	852	64.21%	34.83%
Penn Twp	537	351	897	186	59.87%	39.13%
Pokagon Twp	515	426	956	89	53.87%	44.56%
Porter Twp	1262	584	1863	678	67.74%	31.35%
Silver Creek Twp	908	562	1488	346	61.02%	37.77%
Volinia Twp	314	192	513	122	61.21%	37.43%
Wayne Twp	625	504	1145	121	54.59%	44.02%
Total	12659	9591	22490	3068	56.29%	42.65%
Kalamazoo County
Alamo Twp	1271	897	2185	374	58.17%	41.05%
Brady Twp	1392	945	2364	447	58.88%	39.97%
Charleston Twp	575	441	1039	134	55.34%	42.44%
Climax Twp	736	490	1235	246	59.60%	39.68%
Comstock Twp	3622	3993	7708	-371	46.99%	51.80%
Cooper Twp	2735	2608	5409	127	50.56%	48.22%
Galesburg	307	365	682	-58	45.01%	53.52%
Kalamazoo	7280	21942	29671	-14662	24.54%	73.95%
Kalamazoo Twp	3469	6946	10547	-3477	32.89%	65.86%
Oshtemo Twp	4600	6252	10959	-1652	41.97%	57.05%
Parchment	369	534	912	-165	40.46%	58.55%
Pavilion Twp	1589	1358	2980	231	53.32%	45.57%
Portage	11918	12966	25178	-1048	47.33%	51.50%
Prairie Ronde Twp	824	458	1289	366	63.93%	35.53%
Richland Twp	2462	1898	4406	564	55.88%	43.08%
Ross Twp	1747	1251	3016	496	57.92%	41.48%
Schoolcraft Twp	2299	1877	4230	422	54.35%	44.37%
Texas Twp	5070	3616	8753	1454	57.92%	41.31%
Wakeshima Twp	397	214	615	183	64.55%	34.80%
Total	52662	69051	123178	-16389	42.75%	56.06%
St Joseph County
Burr Oak Twp	568	417	995	151	57.09%	41.91%
Colon Twp	685	544	1243	141	55.11%	43.77%
Constantine Twp	862	658	1535	204	56.16%	42.87%
Fabius Twp	946	682	1644	264	57.54%	41.48%
Fawn River Twp	393	242	642	151	61.21%	37.69%
Florence Twp	329	188	524	141	62.79%	35.88%
Flowerfield Twp	393	315	715	78	54.97%	44.06%
Leonidias Twp	291	160	465	131	62.58%	34.41%
Lockport Twp	875	824	1717	51	50.96%	47.99%
Mendon Twp	641	608	1263	33	50.75%	48.14%
Mottville Twp	334	229	586	105	57.00%	39.08%
Nottawa Twp	791	603	1403	188	56.38%	42.98%
Park Twp	702	534	1251	168	56.12%	42.69%
Sherman Twp	1015	534	1559	481	65.11%	34.25%
Sturgis	1746	1304	3085	442	56.60%	42.27%
Sturgis Twp	487	298	795	189	61.26%	37.48%
Three Rivers	986	1443	2470	-457	39.92%	58.42%
White Pigeon Twp	934	529	1469	405	63.58%	36.01%
Total	12978	10112	23361	2866	55.55%	43.29%
Van Buren County
Almena Twp	1391	1291	2712	100	51.29%	47.60%
Antwerp Twp	2846	2892	5805	-46	49.03%	49.82%
Arlington Twp	437	380	830	57	52.65%	45.78%
Bangor	227	373	605	-146	37.52%	61.65%
Bangor Twp	431	334	774	97	55.68%	43.15%
Bloomingdale Twp	644	612	1270	32	50.71%	48.19%
Columbia Twp	492	486	989	6	49.75%	49.14%
Covert Twp	258	714	980	-456	26.33%	72.86%
Decatur Twp	675	769	1465	-94	46.08%	52.49%
Geneva Twp	664	731	1409	-67	47.13%	51.88%
Gobles	176	143	332	33	53.01%	43.07%
Hamilton Twp	328	325	660	3	49.70%	49.24%
Hartford	362	362	733	0	49.39%	49.39%
Hartford Twp	628	417	1060	211	59.25%	39.34%
Keeler Twp	558	392	970	166	57.53%	40.41%
Lawrence Twp	699	583	1299	116	53.81%	44.88%
Paw Paw Twp	1384	1528	2947	-144	46.96%	51.85%
Pine Grove Twp	773	613	1411	160	54.78%	43.44%
Porter Twp	689	613	1321	76	52.16%	46.40%
South Haven	1060	1328	2403	-268	44.11%	55.26%
South Haven Twp	861	876	1760	-15	48.92%	49.77%
Waverly Twp	558	528	1102	30	50.64%	47.91%
Total	16141	16290	32837	-149	49.15%	49.61%
Total All	163437	159024	326346	4413	50.08%	48.73%

Congressional District 6 - Redistricted (MI-06)

Incumbent - Fred Upton (R-St Joseph)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 26.
The old 6th District information is here

Challengers - Mike O'Brien (D-Douglas)

Update 8-30-2012 - Fred Upton won his primary in an easier than expected win. 

UPDATE 5-1-2012 -  Jack Hoogendyk has filed a primary challenge to Fred Upton in a rematch of 2010. Upton won the primary last time, but it was not by as large of margin as one would expect. 

This is a largely unchanged district. It drops two townships in Calhoun County to Justin Amash, and gains most of the rest of Allegan County outside the City of Holland (mostly in Ottawa County), which happens to be the most Republican portion of the county, and possibly the most Republican area of the state. Some of those areas are 80%+ GOP most years. That significantly helps Upton, who is in a very difficult district on paper. Upton himself wins easily. His replacement will have a much tougher time.

Kalamazoo County is democrat leaning, although most of the suburbs are competitive, and some of them are republican. Jack Hoogendyk won a difficult district three times, and that stayed GOP when he left. Jace Bolger's district is less difficult but not easy on paper, and that's been GOP for a long time. Tom George and Tonya Schuitmaker won a very difficult countywide state senate district that leans democrat on paper. There is a different in presidential years and non-presidential years in Kalamazoo County with the WMU voters. Van Buren and Cass Counties are almost always close. Berrien and St Joseph Counties are usually republican leaning, although not in 2008. Berrien County does have a democrat stronghold in Benton Harbor/Benton Township with Niles also leaning democrat. The burbs usually outvote the cities.

The old district had a 20000 vote spread for Bush and 32000 vote spread for Obama. The new district solely thanks to the Allegan County help had about a 27000 vote spread for Bush and 28000 vote spread for Obama. It's still a difficult district, but there's less chance to get caught offguard. Upton's weakest percentage overall in the last district is about 58% in 2008. Here's the numbers. I'm using Upton's 08 numbers because it's the same opponent in 2010 (Don Cooney) and shows more individual strength.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan County	30061	24165	54226	5896	55.44%	44.56%	10.87%
Holland City	-2093	-1391	-3484	-702	60.07%	39.93%	20.15%
Berrien County	36130	40381	76511	-4251	47.22%	52.78%	-5.56%
Cass County	11114	12083	23197	-969	47.91%	52.09%	-4.18%
Kalamazoo County	51554	77051	128605	-25497	40.09%	59.91%	-19.83%
St Joseph County	12886	12322	25208	564	51.12%	48.88%	2.24%
Van Buren County	15534	18588	34122	-3054	45.52%	54.48%	-8.95%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	155186	183199	338385	-28013	45.86%	54.14%	-8.28%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan County	34022	19355	53377	14667	63.74%	36.26%	27.48%
Holland City	-2479	-941	-3420	-1538	72.49%	27.51%	44.97%
Berrien County	41076	32846	73922	8230	55.57%	44.43%	11.13%
Cass County	12964	9537	22501	3427	57.62%	42.38%	15.23%
Kalamazoo County	57147	61462	118609	-4315	48.18%	51.82%	-3.64%
St Joseph County	15340	9648	24988	5692	61.39%	38.61%	22.78%
Van Buren County	17634	16151	33785	1483	52.19%	47.81%	4.39%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	175704	148058	323762	27646	54.27%	45.73%	8.54%
2008
	Upton	Cooney	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan County	19733	10777	30510	8956	64.68%	35.32%	29.35%
Holland City	0	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berrien County	46007	28530	74537	17477	61.72%	38.28%	23.45%
Cass County	14234	8148	22382	6086	63.60%	36.40%	27.19%
Kalamazoo County	68028	55599	123627	12429	55.03%	44.97%	10.05%
St Joseph County	17676	6925	24601	10751	71.85%	28.15%	43.70%
Van Buren County	20628	12461	33089	8167	62.34%	37.66%	24.68%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	186306	122440	308746	63866	60.34%	39.66%	20.69%

Congressional District 6 (MI-06) Updated

Update 5-18-2010 - Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 6th District - Congress

Incumbent - Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 24.
Cook District Numbers -EVEN

GOP Candidates - Fred Upton
Dem Candidates - Don Cooney

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 54%
McCain - 44%

2004:
Bush - 53%
Kerry – 46%

2000
Bush - 52%
Gore - 45%

This district covers all of Berrien, Cass, Kalamazoo, St Joe, and Van Buren Counties. It also covers parts of Allegan and two areas in Calhoun County. 

This is a darkhorse district we need to keep an eye on. I mentioned in the 2nd and 3rd districts, the West Michigan blue shift. Three areas most of all have majorly shifted on a consistent level, not just in 2008 (although they did in spades). Kalamazoo County, Grand Rapids, and Muskegon County. Kalamazoo County most of all. It's been blue for a long time (Howard Wolpe won there in the 1980's), although competitive...until recently. Now it is a stronghold for the democrats as the suburbs are also going blue. Van Buren has been competitive for awhile as well (people forget that Clinton won it), and Southern Allegan County is also competitive. Allegan County is Republican because of its northern side, most of which is in Hoekstra's district. Berrien County is split and shifted heavily as well in 08. I think one factor here is Chicago area proximity. This part of Michigan is more tied to Chicago than Detroit.  Northwest Indiana had a major blue shift as well in 2008. The other major factor is minorities. Benton Harbor and Benton Township are democrat strongholds in Berrien County. Niles leans democrat as well and has a sizable minority population. The question is this. Is the whole district following Kalamazoo County or is 08 an aberration? I think both. I think Van Buren is following Kalamazoo, but the rest is a partial aberration. My alarm bells are heightened however.

The other thing with Kalamazoo is money. There's some big money leftism here. The Stryer family. Jon Stryker is an uber-radical leftist who runs radical the radical Arcus Foundation. He's also a gazillionaire heir of the Stryker fortune, and will spend his money to harm this state and country with his radical ideas.

Fred Upton is the incumbent and has never had a tough general election. His weakest win was in 1990 under a different district. His weakest in the current district (and 2nd weakest overall) was 2008 with 59% against a sacrificial lamb in Kalamazoo City Councilman Don Cooney. Most of his wins are about 65%. I'll split Berrien and Kalamazoo, as well as the already split counties. Here's the Upton 2008 numbers. Benton  Harbor is as democrat as Detroit, and the city and township of Kalamazoo are D strongholds.

2008 Election	Upton	Cooney	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Allegan County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Allegan	1108	846	88	2,042	262	54.26%	41.43%	12.83%
Allegan Twp	1220	730	70	2,020	490	60.40%	36.14%	24.26%
Casco Twp	826	561	32	1,419	265	58.21%	39.53%	18.68%
Cheshire Twp	574	351	51	976	223	58.81%	35.96%	22.85%
Clyde Twp	430	299	46	775	131	55.48%	38.58%	16.90%
Dorr Twp	1215	475	63	1,753	740	69.31%	27.10%	42.21%
Ganges Twp	822	500	50	1,372	322	59.91%	36.44%	23.47%
Gunplain Twp	1991	1045	97	3,133	946	63.55%	33.35%	30.19%
Hopkins Twp	842	362	61	1,265	480	66.56%	28.62%	37.94%
Lee Twp	530	466	46	1,042	64	50.86%	44.72%	6.14%
Leighton Township	1822	472	87	2,381	1350	76.52%	19.82%	56.70%
Martin Twp	862	307	28	1,197	555	72.01%	25.65%	46.37%
City of Otsego	1024	593	49	1,666	431	61.46%	35.59%	25.87%
Otsego Twp	1654	882	85	2,621	772	63.11%	33.65%	29.45%
City of Plainwell	1007	682	54	1,743	325	57.77%	39.13%	18.65%
Trowbridge Twp	718	430	53	1,201	288	59.78%	35.80%	23.98%
Valley Twp	561	339	29	929	222	60.39%	36.49%	23.90%
Watson Twp	579	295	42	916	284	63.21%	32.21%	31.00%
City of Wayland	995	627	73	1,695	368	58.70%	36.99%	21.71%
Wayland Twp	951	510	56	1,517	441	62.69%	33.62%	29.07%
Berrien County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bainbridge Twp	1,071	352	31	1,454	719	73.66%	24.21%	49.45%
Baroda Twp	1,036	405	38	1,479	631	70.05%	27.38%	42.66%
City of Benton Harbor	384	3,832	108	4,324	-3448	8.88%	88.62%	-79.74%
Benton Township	2,086	4,312	145	6,543	-2226	31.88%	65.90%	-34.02%
Berrien Twp	1,694	548	45	2,287	1146	74.07%	23.96%	50.11%
Bertrand Twp	996	394	28	1,418	602	70.24%	27.79%	42.45%
City of Bridgman	786	373	21	1,180	413	66.61%	31.61%	35.00%
City of Buchanan	1,058	819	38	1,915	239	55.25%	42.77%	12.48%
Buchanan Twp	1,125	543	48	1,716	582	65.56%	31.64%	33.92%
Chikaming Twp	1,099	701	41	1,841	398	59.70%	38.08%	21.62%
City of Coloma	515	213	13	741	302	69.50%	28.74%	40.76%
Coloma Twp	1,706	609	60	2,375	1097	71.83%	25.64%	46.19%
Galien Twp	393	275	18	686	118	57.29%	40.09%	17.20%
Hagar Twp	1,218	552	36	1,806	666	67.44%	30.56%	36.88%
Lake Twp	1,156	479	27	1,662	677	69.55%	28.82%	40.73%
Lincoln Twp	6,318	1,818	160	8,296	4500	76.16%	21.91%	54.24%
City of New Buffalo	498	371	27	896	127	55.58%	41.41%	14.17%
New Buffalo Twp	717	539	42	1,298	178	55.24%	41.53%	13.71%
City of Niles	2,389	2,165	101	4,655	224	51.32%	46.51%	4.81%
Niles Twp	3,735	2,279	137	6,151	1456	60.72%	37.05%	23.67%
Oronoko Twp	2,307	1,210	109	3,626	1097	63.62%	33.37%	30.25%
Pipestone Twp	771	264	24	1,059	507	72.80%	24.93%	47.88%
Royalton Twp	2,112	469	61	2,642	1643	79.94%	17.75%	62.19%
Sodus Twp	645	298	34	977	347	66.02%	30.50%	35.52%
City of St Joseph	3,269	1,235	97	4,601	2034	71.05%	26.84%	44.21%
St Joseph Twp	4,204	1,896	127	6,227	2308	67.51%	30.45%	37.06%
Three Oaks Twp	807	553	28	1,388	254	58.14%	39.84%	18.30%
City of Watervliet	424	229	17	670	195	63.28%	34.18%	29.10%
Watervliet Twp	872	438	30	1,340	434	65.07%	32.69%	32.39%
Weesaw Twp	616	359	25	1,000	257	61.60%	35.90%	25.70%
Calhoun County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Athens Twp	413	196	27	636	217	64.94%	30.82%	34.12%
Leroy Twp	1,438	621	62	2,121	817	67.80%	29.28%	38.52%
Cass County	14,234	8,148	527	22,909	6086	62.13%	35.57%	26.57%
Kalamazoo County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp	1,496	646	47	2,189	850	68.34%	29.51%	38.83%
Brady Twp	1,612	707	75	2,394	905	67.34%	29.53%	37.80%
Charleston Twp	688	330	40	1,058	358	65.03%	31.19%	33.84%
Climax Twp	832	363	37	1,232	469	67.53%	29.46%	38.07%
Comstock Twp	4,578	2,966	207	7,751	1612	59.06%	38.27%	20.80%
Cooper Twp	3,324	1,996	144	5,464	1328	60.83%	36.53%	24.30%
City of Galesburg	392	290	35	717	102	54.67%	40.45%	14.23%
City of Kalamazoo	11,312	21,108	930	33,350	-9796	33.92%	63.29%	-29.37%
Kalamazoo Twp	4,982	5,756	259	10,997	-774	45.30%	52.34%	-7.04%
Oshtemo Twp	5,862	4,738	282	10,882	1124	53.87%	43.54%	10.33%
City of Parchment	519	384	19	922	135	56.29%	41.65%	14.64%
Pavilion Twp	2,002	1,071	84	3,157	931	63.41%	33.92%	29.49%
City of Portage	15,541	8,967	446	24,954	6574	62.28%	35.93%	26.34%
Prairie Ronde Twp	937	327	28	1,292	610	72.52%	25.31%	47.21%
Richland Twp	2,847	1,356	105	4,308	1491	66.09%	31.48%	34.61%
Ross Twp	2,079	859	75	3,013	1220	69.00%	28.51%	40.49%
Schoolcraft Twp	2,774	1,313	118	4,205	1461	65.97%	31.22%	34.74%
Texas Twp	5,812	2,250	196	8,258	3562	70.38%	27.25%	43.13%
Wakeshma Twp	447	176	30	653	271	68.45%	26.95%	41.50%
St Joseph County	17,676	6,925	597	25,198	10751	70.15%	27.48%	42.67%
Van Buren County	20,628	12,461	866	33,955	8167	60.75%	36.70%	24.05%
Total	188,163	123,256	8,112	319,531	64907	58.89%	38.57%	20.31%

 2004 and 2008 show the shifts.The whole area shifted heavily.

2004 Election	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Allegan County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Allegan	1035	1005	30	2,070	30	50.00%	48.55%	1.45%
Allegan Twp	1108	924	20	2,052	184	54.00%	45.03%	8.97%
Casco Twp	768	673	13	1,454	95	52.82%	46.29%	6.53%
Cheshire Twp	541	475	16	1,032	66	52.42%	46.03%	6.40%
Clyde Twp	421	318	10	749	103	56.21%	42.46%	13.75%
Dorr Twp (3)	1305	522	15	1,842	783	70.85%	28.34%	42.51%
Ganges Twp	787	599	27	1,413	188	55.70%	42.39%	13.31%
Gunplain Twp	1743	1334	21	3,098	409	56.26%	43.06%	13.20%
Hopkins Twp	871	434	17	1,322	437	65.89%	32.83%	33.06%
Lee Twp	471	588	12	1,071	-117	43.98%	54.90%	-10.92%
Leighton Township	1802	490	16	2,308	1312	78.08%	21.23%	56.85%
Martin Twp	832	355	6	1,193	477	69.74%	29.76%	39.98%
City of Otsego	892	862	18	1,772	30	50.34%	48.65%	1.69%
Otsego Twp	1375	1124	18	2,517	251	54.63%	44.66%	9.97%
City of Plainwell	919	881	17	1,817	38	50.58%	48.49%	2.09%
Trowbridge Twp	712	557	11	1,280	155	55.63%	43.52%	12.11%
Valley Twp	540	424	13	977	116	55.27%	43.40%	11.87%
Watson Twp	550	379	12	941	171	58.45%	40.28%	18.17%
City of Wayland	1096	709	30	1,835	387	59.73%	38.64%	21.09%
Wayland Twp	973	614	13	1,600	359	60.81%	38.38%	22.44%
Berrien County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bainbridge Twp	1,016	394	15	1,425	622	71.30%	27.65%	43.65%
Baroda Twp	969	474	15	1,458	495	66.46%	32.51%	33.95%
City of Benton Harbor	161	3,600	17	3,778	-3439	4.26%	95.29%	-91.03%
Benton Township	1,739	4,123	37	5,899	-2384	29.48%	69.89%	-40.41%
Berrien Twp	1,552	708	26	2,286	844	67.89%	30.97%	36.92%
Bertrand Twp	799	541	17	1,357	258	58.88%	39.87%	19.01%
City of Bridgman	772	427	17	1,216	345	63.49%	35.12%	28.37%
City of Buchanan	1,005	958	12	1,975	47	50.89%	48.51%	2.38%
Buchanan Twp	1,014	741	25	1,780	273	56.97%	41.63%	15.34%
Chikaming Twp	1,124	842	17	1,983	282	56.68%	42.46%	14.22%
City of Coloma	444	308	8	760	136	58.42%	40.53%	17.89%
Coloma Twp	1,573	829	22	2,424	744	64.89%	34.20%	30.69%
Galien Twp	376	334	11	721	42	52.15%	46.32%	5.83%
Hagar Twp	1,146	671	19	1,836	475	62.42%	36.55%	25.87%
Lake Twp	1,098	594	25	1,717	504	63.95%	34.60%	29.35%
Lincoln Twp	5,646	2,474	87	8,207	3172	68.79%	30.14%	38.65%
City of New Buffalo	474	451	16	941	23	50.37%	47.93%	2.44%
New Buffalo Twp	624	675	8	1,307	-51	47.74%	51.64%	-3.90%
City of Niles	2,145	2,426	43	4,614	-281	46.49%	52.58%	-6.09%
Niles Twp	3,210	2,705	55	5,970	505	53.77%	45.31%	8.46%
Oronoko Twp	2,057	1,310	63	3,430	747	59.97%	38.19%	21.78%
Pipestone Twp	724	330	13	1,067	394	67.85%	30.93%	36.93%
Royalton Twp	1,717	661	22	2,400	1056	71.54%	27.54%	44.00%
Sodus Twp	566	344	13	923	222	61.32%	37.27%	24.05%
City of St Joseph	2,630	1,865	49	4,544	765	57.88%	41.04%	16.84%
St Joseph Twp	3,808	2,326	37	6,171	1482	61.71%	37.69%	24.02%
Three Oaks Twp	826	583	9	1,418	243	58.25%	41.11%	17.14%
City of Watervliet	418	270	8	696	148	60.06%	38.79%	21.26%
Watervliet Twp	826	513	8	1,347	313	61.32%	38.08%	23.24%
Weesaw Twp	617	369	20	1,006	248	61.33%	36.68%	24.65%
Calhoun County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Athens Twp	784	499	9	1,292	285	60.68%	38.62%	22.06%
Leroy Twp	1,297	773	11	2,081	524	62.33%	37.15%	25.18%
Cass County	12,964	9,537	196	22,697	3427	57.12%	42.02%	15.10%
Kalamazoo County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp	1,288	918	20	2,226	370	57.86%	41.24%	16.62%
Brady Twp	1,411	991	15	2,417	420	58.38%	41.00%	17.38%
Charleston Twp	592	419	15	1,026	173	57.70%	40.84%	16.86%
Climax Twp	757	509	15	1,281	248	59.09%	39.73%	19.36%
Comstock Twp	3,844	3,734	59	7,637	110	50.33%	48.89%	1.44%
Cooper Twp	2,825	2,462	49	5,336	363	52.94%	46.14%	6.80%
City of Galesburg	365	372	10	747	-7	48.86%	49.80%	-0.94%
City of Kalamazoo	9,378	19,377	337	29,092	-9999	32.24%	66.61%	-34.37%
Kalamazoo Twp	4,405	6,165	108	10,678	-1760	41.25%	57.74%	-16.48%
Oshtemo Twp	4,703	4,850	103	9,656	-147	48.71%	50.23%	-1.52%
City of Parchment	516	482	7	1,005	34	51.34%	47.96%	3.38%
Pavilion Twp	1,643	1,412	31	3,086	231	53.24%	45.76%	7.49%
City of Portage	13,115	11,597	213	24,925	1518	52.62%	46.53%	6.09%
Prairie Ronde Twp	848	458	5	1,311	390	64.68%	34.94%	29.75%
Richland Twp	2,354	1,710	51	4,115	644	57.21%	41.56%	15.65%
Ross Twp	1,900	1,197	25	3,122	703	60.86%	38.34%	22.52%
Schoolcraft Twp	2,288	1,652	41	3,981	636	57.47%	41.50%	15.98%
Texas Twp	4,509	2,919	29	7,457	1590	60.47%	39.14%	21.32%
Wakeshma Twp	406	220	12	638	186	63.64%	34.48%	29.15%
St Joseph County	15,340	9,648	251	25,239	5692	60.78%	38.23%	22.55%
Van Buren County	17,634	16,151	389	34,174	1483	51.60%	47.26%	4.34%
Total	164,983	144,165	3,070	312,218	20818	52.84%	46.17%	6.67%

2004 wasn't bad, although the dems made big gains in Kalamazoo over 2000. The rest of the area moved to the right. In 2008, it was a professional ass kicking going the other way.

2008 election	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Allegan County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Allegan	845	1212	43	2,100	-367	40.24%	57.71%	-17.48%
Allegan Twp	946	1114	42	2,102	-168	45.00%	53.00%	-7.99%
Casco Twp	636	792	20	1,448	-156	43.92%	54.70%	-10.77%
Cheshire Twp	456	524	29	1,009	-68	45.19%	51.93%	-6.74%
Clyde Twp	359	446	18	823	-87	43.62%	54.19%	-10.57%
Dorr Twp (3/4)	1165	632	46	1,843	533	63.21%	34.29%	28.92%
Ganges Twp	662	708	36	1,406	-46	47.08%	50.36%	-3.27%
Gunplain Twp	1520	1621	67	3,208	-101	47.38%	50.53%	-3.15%
Hopkins Twp	770	514	33	1,317	256	58.47%	39.03%	19.44%
Lee Twp	428	635	17	1,080	-207	39.63%	58.80%	-19.17%
Leighton Township	1739	681	43	2,463	1058	70.60%	27.65%	42.96%
Martin Twp	761	455	17	1,233	306	61.72%	36.90%	24.82%
City of Otsego	711	982	34	1,727	-271	41.17%	56.86%	-15.69%
Otsego Twp	1217	1433	58	2,708	-216	44.94%	52.92%	-7.98%
City of Plainwell	731	1035	33	1,799	-304	40.63%	57.53%	-16.90%
Trowbridge Twp	575	623	30	1,228	-48	46.82%	50.73%	-3.91%
Valley Twp	442	516	15	973	-74	45.43%	53.03%	-7.61%
Watson Twp	470	447	21	938	23	50.11%	47.65%	2.45%
City of Wayland	883	843	38	1,764	40	50.06%	47.79%	2.27%
Wayland Twp	838	725	33	1,596	113	52.51%	45.43%	7.08%
Berrien County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bainbridge Twp	926	519	22	1,467	407	63.12%	35.38%	27.74%
Baroda Twp	851	614	31	1,496	237	56.89%	41.04%	15.84%
City of Benton Harbor	94	4,364	3	4,461	-4270	2.11%	97.83%	-95.72%
Benton Township	1,480	5,108	59	6,647	-3628	22.27%	76.85%	-54.58%
Berrien Twp	1,398	903	43	2,344	495	59.64%	38.52%	21.12%
Bertrand Twp	776	642	26	1,444	134	53.74%	44.46%	9.28%
City of Bridgman	625	555	21	1,201	70	52.04%	46.21%	5.83%
City of Buchanan	792	1,140	27	1,959	-348	40.43%	58.19%	-17.76%
Buchanan Twp	895	794	43	1,732	101	51.67%	45.84%	5.83%
Chikaming Twp	907	950	23	1,880	-43	48.24%	50.53%	-2.29%
City of Coloma	412	327	18	757	85	54.43%	43.20%	11.23%
Coloma Twp	1,437	949	39	2,425	488	59.26%	39.13%	20.12%
Galien Twp	312	381	11	704	-69	44.32%	54.12%	-9.80%
Hagar Twp	992	805	22	1,819	187	54.54%	44.26%	10.28%
Lake Twp	943	715	37	1,695	228	55.63%	42.18%	13.45%
Lincoln Twp	5,112	3,165	105	8,382	1947	60.99%	37.76%	23.23%
City of New Buffalo	390	504	16	910	-114	42.86%	55.38%	-12.53%
New Buffalo Twp	591	739	26	1,356	-148	43.58%	54.50%	-10.91%
City of Niles	1,712	2,976	98	4,786	-1264	35.77%	62.18%	-26.41%
Niles Twp	2,906	3,301	102	6,309	-395	46.06%	52.32%	-6.26%
Oronoko Twp	1,794	1,858	73	3,725	-64	48.16%	49.88%	-1.72%
Pipestone Twp	662	395	24	1,081	267	61.24%	36.54%	24.70%
Royalton Twp	1,743	886	38	2,667	857	65.35%	33.22%	32.13%
Sodus Twp	559	411	21	991	148	56.41%	41.47%	14.93%
City of St Joseph	2,331	2,253	55	4,639	78	50.25%	48.57%	1.68%
St Joseph Twp	3,240	2,975	89	6,304	265	51.40%	47.19%	4.20%
Three Oaks Twp	627	770	24	1,421	-143	44.12%	54.19%	-10.06%
City of Watervliet	332	339	9	680	-7	48.82%	49.85%	-1.03%
Watervliet Twp	751	589	20	1,360	162	55.22%	43.31%	11.91%
Weesaw Twp	540	454	27	1,021	86	52.89%	44.47%	8.42%
Calhoun County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Athens Twp	660	564	33	1,257	96	52.51%	44.87%	7.64%
Leroy Twp	1,289	885	30	2,204	404	58.48%	40.15%	18.33%
Cass County	11,114	12,083	379	23,576	-969	47.14%	51.25%	-4.11%
Kalamazoo County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp	1,198	1,049	33	2,280	149	52.54%	46.01%	6.54%
Brady Twp	1,290	1,101	60	2,451	189	52.63%	44.92%	7.71%
Charleston Twp	589	457	41	1,087	132	54.19%	42.04%	12.14%
Climax Twp	728	524	28	1,280	204	56.88%	40.94%	15.94%
Comstock Twp	3,564	4,289	134	7,987	-725	44.62%	53.70%	-9.08%
Cooper Twp	2,635	2,873	110	5,618	-238	46.90%	51.14%	-4.24%
City of Galesburg	280	442	14	736	-162	38.04%	60.05%	-22.01%
City of Kalamazoo	8,069	25,823	582	34,474	-17754	23.41%	74.91%	-51.50%
Kalamazoo Twp	3,653	7,469	185	11,307	-3816	32.31%	66.06%	-33.75%
Oshtemo Twp	4,414	6,565	204	11,183	-2151	39.47%	58.71%	-19.23%
City of Parchment	416	516	15	947	-100	43.93%	54.49%	-10.56%
Pavilion Twp	1,556	1,632	55	3,243	-76	47.98%	50.32%	-2.34%
City of Portage	11,448	14,049	363	25,860	-2601	44.27%	54.33%	-10.06%
Prairie Ronde Twp	770	538	16	1,324	232	58.16%	40.63%	17.52%
Richland Twp	2,261	2,108	61	4,430	153	51.04%	47.58%	3.45%
Ross Twp	1,651	1,386	41	3,078	265	53.64%	45.03%	8.61%
Schoolcraft Twp	2,164	2,071	65	4,300	93	50.33%	48.16%	2.16%
Texas Twp	4,469	3,864	135	8,468	605	52.78%	45.63%	7.14%
Wakeshma Twp	399	265	14	678	134	58.85%	39.09%	19.76%
St Joseph County	12,886	12,322	494	25,702	564	50.14%	47.94%	2.19%
Van Buren County	15,534	18,588	644	34,766	-3054	44.68%	53.47%	-8.78%
Total	145,321	177,782	5,561	328,664	-32461	44.22%	54.09%	-9.88%

Dems gain 8%. GOP drops 9%. This was the 3rd biggest swing in the state. The 3rd was the biggest swing, and the 2nd was the 2nd biggest swing. I think part of it was the Chicago and South Bend influence, Kalamazoo influence, McCain quitting the state and announcing it, and also the economy. 

Breaking down the numbers a bit.

Allegan County: Southern Allegan took a heavy democrat swing. If it wasn't for Dorr Twp, it would have flipped.
2004 - Bush 57.94%, Kerry 41.02%. 32343 votes, 5474 vote spread
2008 - McCain 49.30%, Obama 48.64%, 32765 votes, 216 vote spread

Berrien County swing the same way. I took out Benton Harbor and Twp and separated them. Niles really shifted. The difference in the Bentons was more turnout.
Benton Harbor/Twp
2004 - Kerry 79.81%, Bush 19.63%, 9677 votes, -5823 vote spread
2008 - Obama 85.27%, McCain 14.17%, 11108 votes, -7898 vote spread

Rest of County
2004 - Bush 60.29%, Kerry 38.66%, 64,979 votes, 14053 vote spread
2008 - McCain 51.92%, Obama 46.44%, 66555 votes, 3647 vote spread

Cass County followed the West Michigan pattern. I think the sizable rural minority vote here factored as well. Dowagiac and Vandalia kept it from being a stronghold for the GOP, although Bush did very well in 2004 (less so in 2000).

2004 - Bush 57.12%, Kerry 42.02%, 22,697 votes, 3427 vote spread
2008 - Obama 51.25%, McCain 47.14%, 23576 votes, -969 vote spread.

Van Buren County has always been more competitive. Clinton won it. Gore almost did. Covert (stronghold) and South Haven are democrat leaning. The rest of the county is not that republican.
2004 - Bush 51.60%, Kerry 47.26%, 34,174 votes, 1483 vote spread
2008 - Obama 53.47%, McCain 44.68%, 34,766 votes, -3054 vote spread


St Joe County - Stayed in the fold, but should not be close.
2004 - Bush 60.78%, Kerry 38.23%, 25239 votes, 5692 vote spread.
2008 - McCain 50.14%, Obama 47.94%, 25702 votes, 564 vote spread

Calhoun County - Only two townships, and they are very strongly GOP.
2004 - Bush 61.70%, Kerry 37.71%, 3373 votes, 809 vote spread
2008 - McCain 56.31%, Obama 41.87%, 3461 votes, 500 vote spread

Kalamazoo County is becoming a major stronghold for the democrats. Two areas of influence dominate the City of Kalamazoo. The north side and part of the east side which is mostly black, and Western Michigan University on the west side. I separated this three ways. The city itself, close in burbs, and the outer portions.

City of Kalamazoo (notice the turnout difference here compared to elsewhere) This is the democrats anchor in the district.
2004 - Kerry 66.61%, Bush 32.24%, 29092 votes, -9999 vote spread
2008 - Obama 74.91%, McCain 23.41%, 34,474 votes, -17754 vote spread.

Suburbs (Kzoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, Portage, Parchment, Comstock, Cooper) Oshtemo (next to WMU) went for Bush in 2000, but Kerry in 04. Comstock and Parchment (away from the University) went the other way. Cooper and Portage vote for Bush twice, and then Obama. Kzoo twp is a democrat stronghold which borders Kalamazoo's black north side. All of them moved toward Obama.

2004 - Bush 49.64%, Kerry 49.45%, 59237 votes, 118 vote spread.
2008 - Obama 56.85%, McCain 41.54%, 62902 votes, -9631 vote spread

Rest of County - Moved towards Obama, but not like the burbs.
2004 - Bush 58.46%, Kerry 40.68%, 31407 votes, 5584 vote spread. 
2008 - McCain 52.03%, Obama 46.28%, 33355 votes, 1918 votes

The farm club is heavily republican outside of Kalamazoo City, although there were a couple of very competitive races. I expect a lot of offense here by the dems.

St Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Part of Allegan is in the 6th district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.This is an open seat with Patti Birkholz termed out.

St Senate 24th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Birkholz/Royston	64,737	46,480		111,217	18257	58.21%	41.79%	16.42%
02 - Birkholz/Birdson	57,906	32,170		90,076	25736	64.29%	35.71%	28.57%

State Senate 21st - Covers Berrien, Cass, and most of Van Buren Counties (outside of Paw Paw/Antwerp). Ron Jelinek is termed out after two terms as state senator. This COULD be a sleeper, but if we can't win Berrien County, it's going to be a real long night.

St Senate 21st	GOP	Dem
06 - Jelinek/Janowski	50,182	36,078		86,260	14104	58.18%	41.82%	16.35%
02 - Jelinek/Toy	43,239	23,473		66,712	19766	64.81%	35.19%	29.63%

St Senate 20th - Covers all of Kalamazoo County, and Antwerp and Paw Paw townships in Van Buren County. Tom George is termed out, after a very competitive 2006 race against Sandy Lipsey. I think this one could be favored democrat, but I think most thought Tom George was toast in 2006, and that didn't happen.

St Senate 20th	GOP	Dem
06 - George/Lipsey	51,553	48,353		99,906	3200	51.60%	48.40%	3.20%
02 - George/LaForge	44,672	34,327		78,999	10345	56.55%	43.45%	13.10%

St Senate 19th - Covers all of Calhoun and most of Jackson County - 95% of this district is in the 7th, including the current and previous representatives, both from Battle Creek. Mike Nofs won this in the recent special election replacing Mark Schauer who is now congresscitter.

St Senate 19th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
09 - Nofs/Griffin	20327	11385	1543	33,255	8942	61.12%	34.24%	26.89%
06 - Schauer/Fulton	32078	50612		82,690	-18534	38.79%	61.21%	-22.41%
02 - Schauer/Mortimer	32,281	39,673		71,954	-7392	44.86%	55.14%	-10.27%

St Senate 16th - Covers Lenawee Branch, Hillsdale, and St Joseph Counties. - Most of this district outside of St Joe is also in the 7th district. This is a generally solid GOP district, but one of the Spades is running for this seat. That will make this more competitive than it otherwise would have been. Dudley lost bad in 02, but won his county, and now has three terms as rep. Don't sleep on this one, despite the 60%+ numbers.

St Senate 16th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Brown/Christner	52,699	28,128		80,827	24571	65.20%	34.80%	30.40%
02 - Brown/Spade	39894	25604		65,498	14290	60.91%	39.09%	21.82%

St Rep 88th - Covers most of Allegan County - Solidly GOP, as it has all of the 2nd district's portion of Allegan County.

St Rep 88th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Genetski/Clark	29,064	18,119		47,183	10945	61.60%	38.40%	23.20%
06 - Sheen/Weichman	24,831	14,484	1043	40,358	10347	61.53%	35.89%	25.64%
04 - Sheen/Fleser	31,300	15,282		46,582	16018	67.19%	32.81%	34.39%
02 - Sheen/Fleser	20,727	9,497		30,224	11230	68.58%	31.42%	37.16%

St Rep 80th - Covers all of Van Buren County and Watson Twp, Otsego City and Township in  Allegan County. Tonya Schuitmaker is termed out and this will be a likely competitive open seat, despite the 60%+ numbers.

St Rep 80th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Schuitmaker/Olson	23,425	14,936		38,361	8489	61.06%	38.94%	22.13%
06 - Schuitmaker/Olson	18,264	11,440		29,704	6824	61.49%	38.51%	22.97%
04 - Schuitmaker/Toy	21,610	15,459		37,069	6151	58.30%	41.70%	16.59%
02 - Middaugh/Wolcott	15,740	7,368		23,108	8372	68.11%	31.89%	36.23%

St. Rep 79th - Covers Bainbridge Twp, Benton Harbor, City of Benton Twp, City of Bridgman, City of Coloma, Coloma Twp, Hagar Twp, Lake Twp, Lincoln Twp, Royalton Twp, Sodus Twp, City and Twp of St Joseph, City and Twp of Watervliet. Despite Benton Harbor, this should stay ours, even in an open seat. Niles, Buchanan, and New Buffalo are all in the other seat.

St Rep 79th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Proos/Hahn	25,441	18,969		44,410	6472	57.29%	42.71%	14.57%
06 - Proos/King	19,660	10,576		30,236	9084	65.02%	34.98%	30.04%
04 - Proos/Tobias	26,377	15,703		42,080	10674	62.68%	37.32%	25.37%
02 - LaSata/Haralson	16,275	7,224		23,499	9051	69.26%	30.74%	38.52%

 St Rep 78th - Covers Barota Twp, Berrien Twp, Bertrand Twp, Buchanan City and Twp, Chikaming Twp, Galien Twp, New Buffalo City and Twp, Niles City and Twp, Oronoko Twp, Pipestone Twp, Three Oaks Twp,  and Weesaw Twp in Berrien County. Covers City of Dowagiac, Howard Twp, Silver Creek Twp, and Wayne Twp in Cass County. Sharon Tyler won an open seat in 2008 narrowly in a democrat year.This district has been somewhat competitive for awhile.

St Rep 78th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Tyler/Truesdall	20,288	18,627		38,915	1661	52.13%	47.87%	4.27%
06 - Nitz/Truesdall	14,037	13,052		27,089	985	51.82%	48.18%	3.64%
04 - Nitz/Gordon	21,884	15,434		37,318	6450	58.64%	41.36%	17.28%
02 - Nitz/Gordon	11,814	8,497		20,311	3317	58.17%	41.83%	16.33%

St Rep 63rd - Covers one precint in Battle Creek, Bedford Twp, Emmett Twp, Marshall City and Twp, Newton Twp, and Pennfield Twp in Calhoun County. Covers Brady Twp, Charleston Twp, Climax Twp, Comstock Twp, City of Galesburg, Pavilion Twp, Richland Twp, Ross Twp, Schoolcraft Twp, and Wakeshma Twp in Kalamazoo County.This is a lean GOP, but not solid GOP district.

St Rep 63rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Bolger/Smith	27,641	21,188		48,829	6453	56.61%	43.39%	13.22%
06 - Wenke/Smith	21,263	17,352		38,615	3911	55.06%	44.94%	10.13%
04 - Wenke/Geary	28,181	19,723		47,904	8458	58.83%	41.17%	17.66%
02 - Wenke/Mackinder	18,093	13,918		32,011	4175	56.52%	43.48%	13.04%

St Rep 62nd - Covers most of Calhoun County. Only Leroy and Athens Twp is in this district. The rest is in the 7th District.This seat leans slightly democrat, although Nofs held it for three terms. Mark Schauer had it before him, and I believe a GOP'er had it before Mark Schauer. This seat can be competitive.

St Rep 62nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Moore/Segal	15,426	25,029		40,455	-9603	38.13%	61.87%	-23.74%
06 - Nofs/Haley	15,639	13,533		29,172	2106	53.61%	46.39%	7.22%
04 - Nofs/Haley	20,935	18,289		39,224	2646	53.37%	46.63%	6.75%
02 - Nofs/Dearing	13,619	11,986		25,605	1633	53.19%	46.81%	6.38%

St Rep 61st - Covers Alamo Twp, part of Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, City of Parchment, City of Portage, Prairie Ronde Twp, and Texas Twp in Kalamazoo County. This is a opening swing district.. Larry DeShazor won the district in an open seat race in 2008. He's running for St Senate. As Portage goes, so does the district. Oshtemo and Kalamazoo Twp made this district dangerous every election.

St Rep 61st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - DeShazor/Rogers	28,307	27,123		55,430	1184	51.07%	48.93%	2.14%
08 - Hoogendyk/Rogers	21,072	20,598		41,670	474	50.57%	49.43%	1.14%
04 - Hoogendyk/Houston	28,167	23,150		51,317	5017	54.89%	45.11%	9.78%
02 - Hoogendyk/Houston	18,720	14,398		33,118	4322	56.53%	43.47%	13.05%

St Rep 60th - Covers Kalamazoo City and part of Kalamazoo Twp. Solidly Democrat. Robert Jones is the current rep. Sandy Lipsey was there before him. Ed Laforge before him.

St Rep 60th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Ybema/Jones	10,663	30,149		40,812	-19486	26.13%	73.87%	-47.75%
06 - Romero/Jones	7,820	18,932		26,752	-11112	29.23%	70.77%	-41.54%
04 - Fedesna/Lipsey	11,266	24,473		35,739	-13207	31.52%	68.48%	-36.95%
02 - Liddle/Lipsey	7,687	13,671		21,358	-5984	35.99%	64.01%	-28.02%

St Rep 59th - Covers most of Cass and all of St Joe County. Matt Lori won the open seat in 2008. This is probably the most republican district in the 6th District area outside of the Allegan seat.

St Rep 59th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Lori/Higgins	23,844	15,980		39,824	7864	59.87%	40.13%	19.75%
06 - Shaffer/Pawlowski	19,028	9,803		28,831	9225	66.00%	34.00%	32.00%
04 - Shaffer/Pawlowski	27,044	11,211		38,255	15833	70.69%	29.31%	41.39%
02 - Shaffer/Beauchamp	15,227	7,432		22,659	7795	67.20%	32.80%	34.40%

The 6th District is the most competitive one in West Michigan. It is one that will be fought hard if Upton retires or runs for state office. The competitiveness is shown in the state senate and state rep races in this district, especially the Kalamazoo suburbs and the Niles area state rep seat. It is imperative that the GOP stops the bleeding the Kalamazoo suburbs, or there will be some headaches out there way in statewide races, and in state rep/senate districts in the area. The Portage/Oshtemo seat will be a barnburner once again, as will the Kalamazoo County State Senate race. These will be ones to watch in 2010.

Updated 5-18-2010 - Jack Hoogendyk is taking on Upton in the primary. This could be interesting. Upton swings left at times, but unlike bigmouth Joe Schwarz, he doesn't have the same arrogance factor that costs him. Upton is a somewhat liberal republican, but he's not shown himself to be a RINO like Schwarz, Crist, Chafee, or Specter. Upton took out Dale Shugars in his last major primary challenge.

Hoogendyk is a big stronger and has a strong grassroots support network. Can he beat Upton? Possible, but it won't be easy. If he beats Upton, can he beat Cooney? Probably. Jack's state rep district was the critical swing district in Kalamazoo County, and he won there three times, including one where he was expected by many to lose.

This will be one to watch in August.