Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Congressional District 6 (MI-06) Updated

Update 5-18-2010 - Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 6th District - Congress

Incumbent - Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 24.
Cook District Numbers -EVEN

GOP Candidates - Fred Upton
Dem Candidates - Don Cooney

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 54%
McCain - 44%

2004:
Bush - 53%
Kerry – 46%

2000
Bush - 52%
Gore - 45%




This district covers all of Berrien, Cass, Kalamazoo, St Joe, and Van Buren Counties. It also covers parts of Allegan and two areas in Calhoun County. 

This is a darkhorse district we need to keep an eye on. I mentioned in the 2nd and 3rd districts, the West Michigan blue shift. Three areas most of all have majorly shifted on a consistent level, not just in 2008 (although they did in spades). Kalamazoo County, Grand Rapids, and Muskegon County. Kalamazoo County most of all. It's been blue for a long time (Howard Wolpe won there in the 1980's), although competitive...until recently. Now it is a stronghold for the democrats as the suburbs are also going blue. Van Buren has been competitive for awhile as well (people forget that Clinton won it), and Southern Allegan County is also competitive. Allegan County is Republican because of its northern side, most of which is in Hoekstra's district. Berrien County is split and shifted heavily as well in 08. I think one factor here is Chicago area proximity. This part of Michigan is more tied to Chicago than Detroit.  Northwest Indiana had a major blue shift as well in 2008. The other major factor is minorities. Benton Harbor and Benton Township are democrat strongholds in Berrien County. Niles leans democrat as well and has a sizable minority population. The question is this. Is the whole district following Kalamazoo County or is 08 an aberration? I think both. I think Van Buren is following Kalamazoo, but the rest is a partial aberration. My alarm bells are heightened however.

The other thing with Kalamazoo is money. There's some big money leftism here. The Stryer family. Jon Stryker is an uber-radical leftist who runs radical the radical Arcus Foundation. He's also a gazillionaire heir of the Stryker fortune, and will spend his money to harm this state and country with his radical ideas.

Fred Upton is the incumbent and has never had a tough general election. His weakest win was in 1990 under a different district. His weakest in the current district (and 2nd weakest overall) was 2008 with 59% against a sacrificial lamb in Kalamazoo City Councilman Don Cooney. Most of his wins are about 65%. I'll split Berrien and Kalamazoo, as well as the already split counties. Here's the Upton 2008 numbers. Benton  Harbor is as democrat as Detroit, and the city and township of Kalamazoo are D strongholds.


2008 Election
Upton
Cooney
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Allegan County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Allegan
1108
846
88
       2,042
262
54.26%
41.43%
12.83%
Allegan Twp
1220
730
70
       2,020
490
60.40%
36.14%
24.26%
Casco Twp
826
561
32
       1,419
265
58.21%
39.53%
18.68%
Cheshire Twp
574
351
51
         976
223
58.81%
35.96%
22.85%
Clyde Twp
430
299
46
         775
131
55.48%
38.58%
16.90%
Dorr Twp
1215
475
63
       1,753
740
69.31%
27.10%
42.21%
Ganges Twp
822
500
50
       1,372
322
59.91%
36.44%
23.47%
Gunplain Twp
1991
1045
97
       3,133
946
63.55%
33.35%
30.19%
Hopkins Twp
842
362
61
       1,265
480
66.56%
28.62%
37.94%
Lee Twp
530
466
46
       1,042
64
50.86%
44.72%
6.14%
Leighton Township
1822
472
87
       2,381
1350
76.52%
19.82%
56.70%
Martin Twp
862
307
28
       1,197
555
72.01%
25.65%
46.37%
City of Otsego
1024
593
49
       1,666
431
61.46%
35.59%
25.87%
Otsego Twp
1654
882
85
       2,621
772
63.11%
33.65%
29.45%
City of Plainwell
1007
682
54
       1,743
325
57.77%
39.13%
18.65%
Trowbridge Twp
718
430
53
       1,201
288
59.78%
35.80%
23.98%
Valley Twp
561
339
29
         929
222
60.39%
36.49%
23.90%
Watson Twp
579
295
42
         916
284
63.21%
32.21%
31.00%
City of Wayland
995
627
73
       1,695
368
58.70%
36.99%
21.71%
Wayland Twp
951
510
56
       1,517
441
62.69%
33.62%
29.07%
Berrien County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bainbridge Twp
1,071
352
31
       1,454
719
73.66%
24.21%
49.45%
Baroda Twp
1,036
405
38
       1,479
631
70.05%
27.38%
42.66%
City of Benton Harbor
384
3,832
108
       4,324
-3448
8.88%
88.62%
-79.74%
Benton Township
2,086
4,312
145
       6,543
-2226
31.88%
65.90%
-34.02%
Berrien Twp
1,694
548
45
       2,287
1146
74.07%
23.96%
50.11%
Bertrand Twp
996
394
28
       1,418
602
70.24%
27.79%
42.45%
City of Bridgman
786
373
21
       1,180
413
66.61%
31.61%
35.00%
City of Buchanan
1,058
819
38
       1,915
239
55.25%
42.77%
12.48%
Buchanan Twp
1,125
543
48
       1,716
582
65.56%
31.64%
33.92%
Chikaming Twp
1,099
701
41
       1,841
398
59.70%
38.08%
21.62%
City of Coloma
515
213
13
         741
302
69.50%
28.74%
40.76%
Coloma Twp
1,706
609
60
       2,375
1097
71.83%
25.64%
46.19%
Galien Twp
393
275
18
         686
118
57.29%
40.09%
17.20%
Hagar Twp
1,218
552
36
       1,806
666
67.44%
30.56%
36.88%
Lake Twp
1,156
479
27
       1,662
677
69.55%
28.82%
40.73%
Lincoln Twp
6,318
1,818
160
       8,296
4500
76.16%
21.91%
54.24%
City of New Buffalo
498
371
27
         896
127
55.58%
41.41%
14.17%
New Buffalo Twp
717
539
42
       1,298
178
55.24%
41.53%
13.71%
City of Niles
2,389
2,165
101
       4,655
224
51.32%
46.51%
4.81%
Niles Twp
3,735
2,279
137
       6,151
1456
60.72%
37.05%
23.67%
Oronoko Twp
2,307
1,210
109
       3,626
1097
63.62%
33.37%
30.25%
Pipestone Twp
771
264
24
       1,059
507
72.80%
24.93%
47.88%
Royalton Twp
2,112
469
61
       2,642
1643
79.94%
17.75%
62.19%
Sodus Twp
645
298
34
         977
347
66.02%
30.50%
35.52%
City of St Joseph
3,269
1,235
97
       4,601
2034
71.05%
26.84%
44.21%
St Joseph Twp
4,204
1,896
127
       6,227
2308
67.51%
30.45%
37.06%
Three Oaks Twp
807
553
28
       1,388
254
58.14%
39.84%
18.30%
City of Watervliet
424
229
17
         670
195
63.28%
34.18%
29.10%
Watervliet Twp
872
438
30
       1,340
434
65.07%
32.69%
32.39%
Weesaw Twp
616
359
25
       1,000
257
61.60%
35.90%
25.70%
Calhoun County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Athens Twp
413
196
27
         636
217
64.94%
30.82%
34.12%
Leroy Twp
1,438
621
62
       2,121
817
67.80%
29.28%
38.52%
Cass County
14,234
8,148
527
     22,909
6086
62.13%
35.57%
26.57%
Kalamazoo County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp
1,496
646
47
       2,189
850
68.34%
29.51%
38.83%
Brady Twp
1,612
707
75
       2,394
905
67.34%
29.53%
37.80%
Charleston Twp
688
330
40
       1,058
358
65.03%
31.19%
33.84%
Climax Twp
832
363
37
       1,232
469
67.53%
29.46%
38.07%
Comstock Twp
4,578
2,966
207
       7,751
1612
59.06%
38.27%
20.80%
Cooper Twp
3,324
1,996
144
       5,464
1328
60.83%
36.53%
24.30%
City of Galesburg
392
290
35
         717
102
54.67%
40.45%
14.23%
City of Kalamazoo
11,312
21,108
930
     33,350
-9796
33.92%
63.29%
-29.37%
Kalamazoo Twp
4,982
5,756
259
     10,997
-774
45.30%
52.34%
-7.04%
Oshtemo Twp
5,862
4,738
282
     10,882
1124
53.87%
43.54%
10.33%
City of Parchment
519
384
19
         922
135
56.29%
41.65%
14.64%
Pavilion Twp
2,002
1,071
84
       3,157
931
63.41%
33.92%
29.49%
City of Portage
15,541
8,967
446
     24,954
6574
62.28%
35.93%
26.34%
Prairie Ronde Twp
937
327
28
       1,292
610
72.52%
25.31%
47.21%
Richland Twp
2,847
1,356
105
       4,308
1491
66.09%
31.48%
34.61%
Ross Twp
2,079
859
75
       3,013
1220
69.00%
28.51%
40.49%
Schoolcraft Twp
2,774
1,313
118
       4,205
1461
65.97%
31.22%
34.74%
Texas Twp
5,812
2,250
196
       8,258
3562
70.38%
27.25%
43.13%
Wakeshma Twp
447
176
30
         653
271
68.45%
26.95%
41.50%
St Joseph County
17,676
6,925
597
     25,198
10751
70.15%
27.48%
42.67%
Van Buren County
20,628
12,461
866
     33,955
8167
60.75%
36.70%
24.05%









Total
188,163
123,256
8,112
319,531
64907
58.89%
38.57%
20.31%


 2004 and 2008 show the shifts.The whole area shifted heavily.


2004 Election
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Allegan County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Allegan
1035
1005
30
       2,070
30
50.00%
48.55%
1.45%
Allegan Twp
1108
924
20
       2,052
184
54.00%
45.03%
8.97%
Casco Twp
768
673
13
       1,454
95
52.82%
46.29%
6.53%
Cheshire Twp
541
475
16
       1,032
66
52.42%
46.03%
6.40%
Clyde Twp
421
318
10
         749
103
56.21%
42.46%
13.75%
Dorr Twp (3)
1305
522
15
       1,842
783
70.85%
28.34%
42.51%
Ganges Twp
787
599
27
       1,413
188
55.70%
42.39%
13.31%
Gunplain Twp
1743
1334
21
       3,098
409
56.26%
43.06%
13.20%
Hopkins Twp
871
434
17
       1,322
437
65.89%
32.83%
33.06%
Lee Twp
471
588
12
       1,071
-117
43.98%
54.90%
-10.92%
Leighton Township
1802
490
16
       2,308
1312
78.08%
21.23%
56.85%
Martin Twp
832
355
6
       1,193
477
69.74%
29.76%
39.98%
City of Otsego
892
862
18
       1,772
30
50.34%
48.65%
1.69%
Otsego Twp
1375
1124
18
       2,517
251
54.63%
44.66%
9.97%
City of Plainwell
919
881
17
       1,817
38
50.58%
48.49%
2.09%
Trowbridge Twp
712
557
11
       1,280
155
55.63%
43.52%
12.11%
Valley Twp
540
424
13
         977
116
55.27%
43.40%
11.87%
Watson Twp
550
379
12
         941
171
58.45%
40.28%
18.17%
City of Wayland
1096
709
30
       1,835
387
59.73%
38.64%
21.09%
Wayland Twp
973
614
13
       1,600
359
60.81%
38.38%
22.44%
Berrien County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bainbridge Twp
1,016
394
15
       1,425
622
71.30%
27.65%
43.65%
Baroda Twp
969
474
15
       1,458
495
66.46%
32.51%
33.95%
City of Benton Harbor
161
3,600
17
       3,778
-3439
4.26%
95.29%
-91.03%
Benton Township
1,739
4,123
37
       5,899
-2384
29.48%
69.89%
-40.41%
Berrien Twp
1,552
708
26
       2,286
844
67.89%
30.97%
36.92%
Bertrand Twp
799
541
17
       1,357
258
58.88%
39.87%
19.01%
City of Bridgman
772
427
17
       1,216
345
63.49%
35.12%
28.37%
City of Buchanan
1,005
958
12
       1,975
47
50.89%
48.51%
2.38%
Buchanan Twp
1,014
741
25
       1,780
273
56.97%
41.63%
15.34%
Chikaming Twp
1,124
842
17
       1,983
282
56.68%
42.46%
14.22%
City of Coloma
444
308
8
         760
136
58.42%
40.53%
17.89%
Coloma Twp
1,573
829
22
       2,424
744
64.89%
34.20%
30.69%
Galien Twp
376
334
11
         721
42
52.15%
46.32%
5.83%
Hagar Twp
1,146
671
19
       1,836
475
62.42%
36.55%
25.87%
Lake Twp
1,098
594
25
       1,717
504
63.95%
34.60%
29.35%
Lincoln Twp
5,646
2,474
87
       8,207
3172
68.79%
30.14%
38.65%
City of New Buffalo
474
451
16
         941
23
50.37%
47.93%
2.44%
New Buffalo Twp
624
675
8
       1,307
-51
47.74%
51.64%
-3.90%
City of Niles
2,145
2,426
43
       4,614
-281
46.49%
52.58%
-6.09%
Niles Twp
3,210
2,705
55
       5,970
505
53.77%
45.31%
8.46%
Oronoko Twp
2,057
1,310
63
       3,430
747
59.97%
38.19%
21.78%
Pipestone Twp
724
330
13
       1,067
394
67.85%
30.93%
36.93%
Royalton Twp
1,717
661
22
       2,400
1056
71.54%
27.54%
44.00%
Sodus Twp
566
344
13
         923
222
61.32%
37.27%
24.05%
City of St Joseph
2,630
1,865
49
       4,544
765
57.88%
41.04%
16.84%
St Joseph Twp
3,808
2,326
37
       6,171
1482
61.71%
37.69%
24.02%
Three Oaks Twp
826
583
9
       1,418
243
58.25%
41.11%
17.14%
City of Watervliet
418
270
8
         696
148
60.06%
38.79%
21.26%
Watervliet Twp
826
513
8
       1,347
313
61.32%
38.08%
23.24%
Weesaw Twp
617
369
20
       1,006
248
61.33%
36.68%
24.65%
Calhoun County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Athens Twp
784
499
9
       1,292
285
60.68%
38.62%
22.06%
Leroy Twp
1,297
773
11
       2,081
524
62.33%
37.15%
25.18%
Cass County
12,964
9,537
196
     22,697
3427
57.12%
42.02%
15.10%
Kalamazoo County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp
1,288
918
20
       2,226
370
57.86%
41.24%
16.62%
Brady Twp
1,411
991
15
       2,417
420
58.38%
41.00%
17.38%
Charleston Twp
592
419
15
       1,026
173
57.70%
40.84%
16.86%
Climax Twp
757
509
15
       1,281
248
59.09%
39.73%
19.36%
Comstock Twp
3,844
3,734
59
       7,637
110
50.33%
48.89%
1.44%
Cooper Twp
2,825
2,462
49
       5,336
363
52.94%
46.14%
6.80%
City of Galesburg
365
372
10
         747
-7
48.86%
49.80%
-0.94%
City of Kalamazoo
9,378
19,377
337
     29,092
-9999
32.24%
66.61%
-34.37%
Kalamazoo Twp
4,405
6,165
108
     10,678
-1760
41.25%
57.74%
-16.48%
Oshtemo Twp
4,703
4,850
103
       9,656
-147
48.71%
50.23%
-1.52%
City of Parchment
516
482
7
       1,005
34
51.34%
47.96%
3.38%
Pavilion Twp
1,643
1,412
31
       3,086
231
53.24%
45.76%
7.49%
City of Portage
13,115
11,597
213
     24,925
1518
52.62%
46.53%
6.09%
Prairie Ronde Twp
848
458
5
       1,311
390
64.68%
34.94%
29.75%
Richland Twp
2,354
1,710
51
       4,115
644
57.21%
41.56%
15.65%
Ross Twp
1,900
1,197
25
       3,122
703
60.86%
38.34%
22.52%
Schoolcraft Twp
2,288
1,652
41
       3,981
636
57.47%
41.50%
15.98%
Texas Twp
4,509
2,919
29
       7,457
1590
60.47%
39.14%
21.32%
Wakeshma Twp
406
220
12
         638
186
63.64%
34.48%
29.15%
St Joseph County
15,340
9,648
251
     25,239
5692
60.78%
38.23%
22.55%
Van Buren County
17,634
16,151
389
     34,174
1483
51.60%
47.26%
4.34%









Total
164,983
144,165
3,070
312,218
20818
52.84%
46.17%
6.67%




2004 wasn't bad, although the dems made big gains in Kalamazoo over 2000. The rest of the area moved to the right. In 2008, it was a professional ass kicking going the other way.



2008 election
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Allegan County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Allegan
845
1212
43
       2,100
-367
40.24%
57.71%
-17.48%
Allegan Twp
946
1114
42
       2,102
-168
45.00%
53.00%
-7.99%
Casco Twp
636
792
20
       1,448
-156
43.92%
54.70%
-10.77%
Cheshire Twp
456
524
29
       1,009
-68
45.19%
51.93%
-6.74%
Clyde Twp
359
446
18
         823
-87
43.62%
54.19%
-10.57%
Dorr Twp (3/4)
1165
632
46
       1,843
533
63.21%
34.29%
28.92%
Ganges Twp
662
708
36
       1,406
-46
47.08%
50.36%
-3.27%
Gunplain Twp
1520
1621
67
       3,208
-101
47.38%
50.53%
-3.15%
Hopkins Twp
770
514
33
       1,317
256
58.47%
39.03%
19.44%
Lee Twp
428
635
17
       1,080
-207
39.63%
58.80%
-19.17%
Leighton Township
1739
681
43
       2,463
1058
70.60%
27.65%
42.96%
Martin Twp
761
455
17
       1,233
306
61.72%
36.90%
24.82%
City of Otsego
711
982
34
       1,727
-271
41.17%
56.86%
-15.69%
Otsego Twp
1217
1433
58
       2,708
-216
44.94%
52.92%
-7.98%
City of Plainwell
731
1035
33
       1,799
-304
40.63%
57.53%
-16.90%
Trowbridge Twp
575
623
30
       1,228
-48
46.82%
50.73%
-3.91%
Valley Twp
442
516
15
         973
-74
45.43%
53.03%
-7.61%
Watson Twp
470
447
21
         938
23
50.11%
47.65%
2.45%
City of Wayland
883
843
38
       1,764
40
50.06%
47.79%
2.27%
Wayland Twp
838
725
33
       1,596
113
52.51%
45.43%
7.08%
Berrien County



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bainbridge Twp
926
519
22
       1,467
407
63.12%
35.38%
27.74%
Baroda Twp
851
614
31
       1,496
237
56.89%
41.04%
15.84%
City of Benton Harbor
94
4,364
3
       4,461
-4270
2.11%
97.83%
-95.72%
Benton Township
1,480
5,108
59
       6,647
-3628
22.27%
76.85%
-54.58%
Berrien Twp
1,398
903
43
       2,344
495
59.64%
38.52%
21.12%
Bertrand Twp
776
642
26
       1,444
134
53.74%
44.46%
9.28%
City of Bridgman
625
555
21
       1,201
70
52.04%
46.21%
5.83%
City of Buchanan
792
1,140
27
       1,959
-348
40.43%
58.19%
-17.76%
Buchanan Twp
895
794
43
       1,732
101
51.67%
45.84%
5.83%
Chikaming Twp
907
950
23
       1,880
-43
48.24%
50.53%
-2.29%
City of Coloma
412
327
18
         757
85
54.43%
43.20%
11.23%
Coloma Twp
1,437
949
39
       2,425
488
59.26%
39.13%
20.12%
Galien Twp
312
381
11
         704
-69
44.32%
54.12%
-9.80%
Hagar Twp
992
805
22
       1,819
187
54.54%
44.26%
10.28%
Lake Twp
943
715
37
       1,695
228
55.63%
42.18%
13.45%
Lincoln Twp
5,112
3,165
105
       8,382
1947
60.99%
37.76%
23.23%
City of New Buffalo
390
504
16
         910
-114
42.86%
55.38%
-12.53%
New Buffalo Twp
591
739
26
       1,356
-148
43.58%
54.50%
-10.91%
City of Niles
1,712
2,976
98
       4,786
-1264
35.77%
62.18%
-26.41%
Niles Twp
2,906
3,301
102
       6,309
-395
46.06%
52.32%
-6.26%
Oronoko Twp
1,794
1,858
73
       3,725
-64
48.16%
49.88%
-1.72%
Pipestone Twp
662
395
24
       1,081
267
61.24%
36.54%
24.70%
Royalton Twp
1,743
886
38
       2,667
857
65.35%
33.22%
32.13%
Sodus Twp
559
411
21
         991
148
56.41%
41.47%
14.93%
City of St Joseph
2,331
2,253
55
       4,639
78
50.25%
48.57%
1.68%
St Joseph Twp
3,240
2,975
89
       6,304
265
51.40%
47.19%
4.20%
Three Oaks Twp
627
770
24
       1,421
-143
44.12%
54.19%
-10.06%
City of Watervliet
332
339
9
         680
-7
48.82%
49.85%
-1.03%
Watervliet Twp
751
589
20
       1,360
162
55.22%
43.31%
11.91%
Weesaw Twp
540
454
27
       1,021
86
52.89%
44.47%
8.42%
Calhoun County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Athens Twp
660
564
33
       1,257
96
52.51%
44.87%
7.64%
Leroy Twp
1,289
885
30
       2,204
404
58.48%
40.15%
18.33%
Cass County
11,114
12,083
379
     23,576
-969
47.14%
51.25%
-4.11%
Kalamazoo County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp
1,198
1,049
33
       2,280
149
52.54%
46.01%
6.54%
Brady Twp
1,290
1,101
60
       2,451
189
52.63%
44.92%
7.71%
Charleston Twp
589
457
41
       1,087
132
54.19%
42.04%
12.14%
Climax Twp
728
524
28
       1,280
204
56.88%
40.94%
15.94%
Comstock Twp
3,564
4,289
134
       7,987
-725
44.62%
53.70%
-9.08%
Cooper Twp
2,635
2,873
110
       5,618
-238
46.90%
51.14%
-4.24%
City of Galesburg
280
442
14
         736
-162
38.04%
60.05%
-22.01%
City of Kalamazoo
8,069
25,823
582
     34,474
-17754
23.41%
74.91%
-51.50%
Kalamazoo Twp
3,653
7,469
185
     11,307
-3816
32.31%
66.06%
-33.75%
Oshtemo Twp
4,414
6,565
204
     11,183
-2151
39.47%
58.71%
-19.23%
City of Parchment
416
516
15
         947
-100
43.93%
54.49%
-10.56%
Pavilion Twp
1,556
1,632
55
       3,243
-76
47.98%
50.32%
-2.34%
City of Portage
11,448
14,049
363
     25,860
-2601
44.27%
54.33%
-10.06%
Prairie Ronde Twp
770
538
16
       1,324
232
58.16%
40.63%
17.52%
Richland Twp
2,261
2,108
61
       4,430
153
51.04%
47.58%
3.45%
Ross Twp
1,651
1,386
41
       3,078
265
53.64%
45.03%
8.61%
Schoolcraft Twp
2,164
2,071
65
       4,300
93
50.33%
48.16%
2.16%
Texas Twp
4,469
3,864
135
       8,468
605
52.78%
45.63%
7.14%
Wakeshma Twp
399
265
14
         678
134
58.85%
39.09%
19.76%
St Joseph County
12,886
12,322
494
     25,702
564
50.14%
47.94%
2.19%
Van Buren County
15,534
18,588
644
     34,766
-3054
44.68%
53.47%
-8.78%









Total
145,321
177,782
5,561
328,664
-32461
44.22%
54.09%
-9.88%



Dems gain 8%. GOP drops 9%. This was the 3rd biggest swing in the state. The 3rd was the biggest swing, and the 2nd was the 2nd biggest swing. I think part of it was the Chicago and South Bend influence, Kalamazoo influence, McCain quitting the state and announcing it, and also the economy. 

Breaking down the numbers a bit.

Allegan County: Southern Allegan took a heavy democrat swing. If it wasn't for Dorr Twp, it would have flipped.
2004 - Bush 57.94%, Kerry 41.02%. 32343 votes, 5474 vote spread
2008 - McCain 49.30%, Obama 48.64%, 32765 votes, 216 vote spread

Berrien County swing the same way. I took out Benton Harbor and Twp and separated them. Niles really shifted. The difference in the Bentons was more turnout.
Benton Harbor/Twp
2004 - Kerry 79.81%, Bush 19.63%, 9677 votes, -5823 vote spread
2008 - Obama 85.27%, McCain 14.17%, 11108 votes, -7898 vote spread

Rest of County
2004 - Bush 60.29%, Kerry 38.66%, 64,979 votes, 14053 vote spread
2008 - McCain 51.92%, Obama 46.44%, 66555 votes, 3647 vote spread

Cass County followed the West Michigan pattern. I think the sizable rural minority vote here factored as well. Dowagiac and Vandalia kept it from being a stronghold for the GOP, although Bush did very well in 2004 (less so in 2000).

2004 - Bush 57.12%, Kerry 42.02%, 22,697 votes, 3427 vote spread
2008 - Obama 51.25%, McCain 47.14%, 23576 votes, -969 vote spread.

Van Buren County has always been more competitive. Clinton won it. Gore almost did. Covert (stronghold) and South Haven are democrat leaning. The rest of the county is not that republican.
2004 - Bush 51.60%, Kerry 47.26%, 34,174 votes, 1483 vote spread
2008 - Obama 53.47%, McCain 44.68%, 34,766 votes, -3054 vote spread


St Joe County - Stayed in the fold, but should not be close.
2004 - Bush 60.78%, Kerry 38.23%, 25239 votes, 5692 vote spread.
2008 - McCain 50.14%, Obama 47.94%, 25702 votes, 564 vote spread

Calhoun County - Only two townships, and they are very strongly GOP.
2004 - Bush 61.70%, Kerry 37.71%, 3373 votes, 809 vote spread
2008 - McCain 56.31%, Obama 41.87%, 3461 votes, 500 vote spread

Kalamazoo County is becoming a major stronghold for the democrats. Two areas of influence dominate the City of Kalamazoo. The north side and part of the east side which is mostly black, and Western Michigan University on the west side. I separated this three ways. The city itself, close in burbs, and the outer portions.

City of Kalamazoo (notice the turnout difference here compared to elsewhere) This is the democrats anchor in the district.
2004 - Kerry 66.61%, Bush 32.24%, 29092 votes, -9999 vote spread
2008 - Obama 74.91%, McCain 23.41%, 34,474 votes, -17754 vote spread.

Suburbs (Kzoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, Portage, Parchment, Comstock, Cooper) Oshtemo (next to WMU) went for Bush in 2000, but Kerry in 04. Comstock and Parchment (away from the University) went the other way. Cooper and Portage vote for Bush twice, and then Obama. Kzoo twp is a democrat stronghold which borders Kalamazoo's black north side. All of them moved toward Obama.

2004 - Bush 49.64%, Kerry 49.45%, 59237 votes, 118 vote spread.
2008 - Obama 56.85%, McCain 41.54%, 62902 votes, -9631 vote spread

Rest of County - Moved towards Obama, but not like the burbs.
2004 - Bush 58.46%, Kerry 40.68%, 31407 votes, 5584 vote spread. 
2008 - McCain 52.03%, Obama 46.28%, 33355 votes, 1918 votes

The farm club is heavily republican outside of Kalamazoo City, although there were a couple of very competitive races. I expect a lot of offense here by the dems.

St Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Part of Allegan is in the 6th district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.This is an open seat with Patti Birkholz termed out.



St Senate 24th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
06 - Birkholz/Royston
64,737
46,480

   111,217
18257
58.21%
41.79%
16.42%
02 - Birkholz/Birdson
57,906
32,170

     90,076
25736
64.29%
35.71%
28.57%


State Senate 21st - Covers Berrien, Cass, and most of Van Buren Counties (outside of Paw Paw/Antwerp). Ron Jelinek is termed out after two terms as state senator. This COULD be a sleeper, but if we can't win Berrien County, it's going to be a real long night.



St Senate 21st
GOP
Dem






06 - Jelinek/Janowski
50,182
36,078

     86,260
14104
58.18%
41.82%
16.35%
02 - Jelinek/Toy
43,239
23,473

     66,712
19766
64.81%
35.19%
29.63%


St Senate 20th - Covers all of Kalamazoo County, and Antwerp and Paw Paw townships in Van Buren County. Tom George is termed out, after a very competitive 2006 race against Sandy Lipsey. I think this one could be favored democrat, but I think most thought Tom George was toast in 2006, and that didn't happen.



St Senate 20th
GOP
Dem






06 - George/Lipsey
51,553
48,353

     99,906
3200
51.60%
48.40%
3.20%
02 - George/LaForge
44,672
34,327

     78,999
10345
56.55%
43.45%
13.10%


St Senate 19th - Covers all of Calhoun and most of Jackson County - 95% of this district is in the 7th, including the current and previous representatives, both from Battle Creek. Mike Nofs won this in the recent special election replacing Mark Schauer who is now congresscitter.



St Senate 19th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




09 - Nofs/Griffin
20327
11385
1543
     33,255
8942
61.12%
34.24%
26.89%
06 - Schauer/Fulton
32078
50612

     82,690
-18534
38.79%
61.21%
-22.41%
02 - Schauer/Mortimer
32,281
39,673

     71,954
-7392
44.86%
55.14%
-10.27%


St Senate 16th - Covers Lenawee Branch, Hillsdale, and St Joseph Counties. - Most of this district outside of St Joe is also in the 7th district. This is a generally solid GOP district, but one of the Spades is running for this seat. That will make this more competitive than it otherwise would have been. Dudley lost bad in 02, but won his county, and now has three terms as rep. Don't sleep on this one, despite the 60%+ numbers.



St Senate 16th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Brown/Christner
52,699
28,128

     80,827
24571
65.20%
34.80%
30.40%
02 - Brown/Spade
39894
25604

     65,498
14290
60.91%
39.09%
21.82%


St Rep 88th - Covers most of Allegan County - Solidly GOP, as it has all of the 2nd district's portion of Allegan County.



St Rep 88th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Genetski/Clark
29,064
18,119

     47,183
10945
61.60%
38.40%
23.20%
06 - Sheen/Weichman
24,831
14,484
1043
     40,358
10347
61.53%
35.89%
25.64%
04 - Sheen/Fleser
31,300
15,282

     46,582
16018
67.19%
32.81%
34.39%
02 - Sheen/Fleser
20,727
9,497

     30,224
11230
68.58%
31.42%
37.16%


St Rep 80th - Covers all of Van Buren County and Watson Twp, Otsego City and Township in  Allegan County. Tonya Schuitmaker is termed out and this will be a likely competitive open seat, despite the 60%+ numbers.



St Rep 80th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Schuitmaker/Olson
23,425
14,936

     38,361
8489
61.06%
38.94%
22.13%
06 - Schuitmaker/Olson
18,264
11,440

     29,704
6824
61.49%
38.51%
22.97%
04 - Schuitmaker/Toy
21,610
15,459

     37,069
6151
58.30%
41.70%
16.59%
02 - Middaugh/Wolcott
15,740
7,368

     23,108
8372
68.11%
31.89%
36.23%



St. Rep 79th - Covers Bainbridge Twp, Benton Harbor, City of Benton Twp, City of Bridgman, City of Coloma, Coloma Twp, Hagar Twp, Lake Twp, Lincoln Twp, Royalton Twp, Sodus Twp, City and Twp of St Joseph, City and Twp of Watervliet. Despite Benton Harbor, this should stay ours, even in an open seat. Niles, Buchanan, and New Buffalo are all in the other seat.



St Rep 79th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Proos/Hahn
25,441
18,969

     44,410
6472
57.29%
42.71%
14.57%
06 - Proos/King
19,660
10,576

     30,236
9084
65.02%
34.98%
30.04%
04 - Proos/Tobias
26,377
15,703

     42,080
10674
62.68%
37.32%
25.37%
02 - LaSata/Haralson
16,275
7,224

     23,499
9051
69.26%
30.74%
38.52%



 St Rep 78th - Covers Barota Twp, Berrien Twp, Bertrand Twp, Buchanan City and Twp, Chikaming Twp, Galien Twp, New Buffalo City and Twp, Niles City and Twp, Oronoko Twp, Pipestone Twp, Three Oaks Twp,  and Weesaw Twp in Berrien County. Covers City of Dowagiac, Howard Twp, Silver Creek Twp, and Wayne Twp in Cass County. Sharon Tyler won an open seat in 2008 narrowly in a democrat year.This district has been somewhat competitive for awhile.



St Rep 78th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Tyler/Truesdall
20,288
18,627

     38,915
1661
52.13%
47.87%
4.27%
06 - Nitz/Truesdall
14,037
13,052

     27,089
985
51.82%
48.18%
3.64%
04 - Nitz/Gordon
21,884
15,434

     37,318
6450
58.64%
41.36%
17.28%
02 - Nitz/Gordon
11,814
8,497

     20,311
3317
58.17%
41.83%
16.33%



St Rep 63rd - Covers one precint in Battle Creek, Bedford Twp, Emmett Twp, Marshall City and Twp, Newton Twp, and Pennfield Twp in Calhoun County. Covers Brady Twp, Charleston Twp, Climax Twp, Comstock Twp, City of Galesburg, Pavilion Twp, Richland Twp, Ross Twp, Schoolcraft Twp, and Wakeshma Twp in Kalamazoo County.This is a lean GOP, but not solid GOP district.



St Rep 63rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Bolger/Smith
27,641
21,188

     48,829
6453
56.61%
43.39%
13.22%
06 - Wenke/Smith
21,263
17,352

     38,615
3911
55.06%
44.94%
10.13%
04 - Wenke/Geary
28,181
19,723

     47,904
8458
58.83%
41.17%
17.66%
02 - Wenke/Mackinder
18,093
13,918

     32,011
4175
56.52%
43.48%
13.04%




St Rep 62nd - Covers most of Calhoun County. Only Leroy and Athens Twp is in this district. The rest is in the 7th District.This seat leans slightly democrat, although Nofs held it for three terms. Mark Schauer had it before him, and I believe a GOP'er had it before Mark Schauer. This seat can be competitive.



St Rep 62nd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Moore/Segal
15,426
25,029

     40,455
-9603
38.13%
61.87%
-23.74%
06 - Nofs/Haley
15,639
13,533

     29,172
2106
53.61%
46.39%
7.22%
04 - Nofs/Haley
20,935
18,289

     39,224
2646
53.37%
46.63%
6.75%
02 - Nofs/Dearing
13,619
11,986

     25,605
1633
53.19%
46.81%
6.38%




St Rep 61st - Covers Alamo Twp, part of Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, City of Parchment, City of Portage, Prairie Ronde Twp, and Texas Twp in Kalamazoo County. This is a opening swing district.. Larry DeShazor won the district in an open seat race in 2008. He's running for St Senate. As Portage goes, so does the district. Oshtemo and Kalamazoo Twp made this district dangerous every election.



St Rep 61st
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - DeShazor/Rogers
28,307
27,123

     55,430
1184
51.07%
48.93%
2.14%
08 - Hoogendyk/Rogers
21,072
20,598

     41,670
474
50.57%
49.43%
1.14%
04 - Hoogendyk/Houston
28,167
23,150

     51,317
5017
54.89%
45.11%
9.78%
02 - Hoogendyk/Houston
18,720
14,398

     33,118
4322
56.53%
43.47%
13.05%


St Rep 60th - Covers Kalamazoo City and part of Kalamazoo Twp. Solidly Democrat. Robert Jones is the current rep. Sandy Lipsey was there before him. Ed Laforge before him.


St Rep 60th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Ybema/Jones
10,663
30,149

     40,812
-19486
26.13%
73.87%
-47.75%
06 - Romero/Jones
7,820
18,932

     26,752
-11112
29.23%
70.77%
-41.54%
04 - Fedesna/Lipsey
11,266
24,473

     35,739
-13207
31.52%
68.48%
-36.95%
02 - Liddle/Lipsey
7,687
13,671

     21,358
-5984
35.99%
64.01%
-28.02%


St Rep 59th - Covers most of Cass and all of St Joe County. Matt Lori won the open seat in 2008. This is probably the most republican district in the 6th District area outside of the Allegan seat.


St Rep 59th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Lori/Higgins
23,844
15,980

     39,824
7864
59.87%
40.13%
19.75%
06 - Shaffer/Pawlowski
19,028
9,803

     28,831
9225
66.00%
34.00%
32.00%
04 - Shaffer/Pawlowski
27,044
11,211

     38,255
15833
70.69%
29.31%
41.39%
02 - Shaffer/Beauchamp
15,227
7,432

     22,659
7795
67.20%
32.80%
34.40%

The 6th District is the most competitive one in West Michigan. It is one that will be fought hard if Upton retires or runs for state office. The competitiveness is shown in the state senate and state rep races in this district, especially the Kalamazoo suburbs and the Niles area state rep seat. It is imperative that the GOP stops the bleeding the Kalamazoo suburbs, or there will be some headaches out there way in statewide races, and in state rep/senate districts in the area. The Portage/Oshtemo seat will be a barnburner once again, as will the Kalamazoo County State Senate race. These will be ones to watch in 2010.

Updated 5-18-2010 - Jack Hoogendyk is taking on Upton in the primary. This could be interesting. Upton swings left at times, but unlike bigmouth Joe Schwarz, he doesn't have the same arrogance factor that costs him. Upton is a somewhat liberal republican, but he's not shown himself to be a RINO like Schwarz, Crist, Chafee, or Specter. Upton took out Dale Shugars in his last major primary challenge.

Hoogendyk is a big stronger and has a strong grassroots support network. Can he beat Upton? Possible, but it won't be easy. If he beats Upton, can he beat Cooney? Probably. Jack's state rep district was the critical swing district in Kalamazoo County, and he won there three times, including one where he was expected by many to lose.

This will be one to watch in August.

9 comments:

PB said...

One quick thing to think about his how this district is probably going to change come redistricting. Should the Dems control even just the house, my guess is that this seat will not be as friendly to Upton as its current incarnation.

The same goes for the State House and Senate Seats. If the Dems control both chambers, I could easily see the 61st made into a stronger Democratic district, and the two Berrien County seats could likewise be made into something much more viable for various candidates.

Republican Michigander said...

If redistricting is split control, which is what I expect to happen, I think there will likely be an incumbent protection map assuming everyone is re-elected. I think Upton and Schauer would help each other out. Trade Kalamazoo for Coldwater and Hillsdale, and maybe Lenawee. The dems probably want to protect Schauer and to a lesser extent Peters. Schauer's seat will probably get either Kalamazoo, Lansing, or Ann Arbor. Peters will probably get Southfield unless they move the Detroit seats there (Voting Rights Act), otherwise Peters will probably get what I call Ann Arbor East - Huntington Woods, Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, etc.

If I was redistricting the DeShazor seat, I'd try and give all of K-zoo twp to Jones if possible (I think Kzoo city lost population). If not, I'd try and get Oshtemo (and Alamo) to the Bolger District, and make it a southern county district. All the dems would have to do is take out Texas Twp and/or Prairie Ronde Twp and add more of Kalamazoo Twp.

If I was redistricting the Berrien seats, I'd make sure that Benton Harbor/Twp and Niles/Buchanan aren't together and that Benton/Twp and Lincon and Lake Twp's are together. I don't think New Buffalo has enough people to matter in the Benton's case, and the township breaks would allow Niles and BH to make that one a lean dem seat.

If I was the dems redistricter, I'd try and somehow get either Benton and Niles together, or take the Benton seat up to Covert and maybe South Haven. That would probably create two solid GOP seats (one Berrien and one Van Buren based), but probably give the dems one because Lincoln Twp and Royalton Twp is to the South. In the alternative, I'd take Niles and combine it was Dowagiac, Cassopolis, and Vandalia in Cass County. That will make that seat competitive, although not solidly dem.

PB said...

As a Dem (but interested in all redistricting), I think that the map will be an incumbency protection plan. The question is, who gets voted off the island should all the incumbents win? McCotter would be my favorite choice, but given that metro Detroit has lost so much population my guess is that he would have to take the hit.

As far as the Kalamazoo seats, I'll get back to you at some Democratic thoughts on creating a new suburban Democratic district to replace the 61st.

Republican Michigander said...

PB - I've read your Grand Rapids stuff. It's good work, as much as I would like to disagree with it.

If you know where I can get the map software like you use, let me know. I'd like to add that to my county updates to go with the table numbers. I'd like to be able to point out locations for the townships only a local would know. (Meridian Township = Okemos/Haslett, Putnam Twp = Pinckney, etc.)

If we lose a seat (as I expect), I think McCotter will be running for senate is the incumbents are knocked out and split control. Rumor is that Stabenow is thinking about her 2012 opponent, and she does not want to face Rogers, who won her old district.

McCotter has the worst geographic neighbors. Southfield or Detroit to the East. The Wayne County Airport area (Dingell democrats) to the South/Southeast. Ypsi to the West/southwest and Livingston County (Mike Rogers home) to the west/Northwest. The only way it could go is North and not hurt McCotter getting the Rogers part of Oakland, forcing Rogers to take Washtenaw/Genesee,Eaton, Gratiot, and the rest of Shiawassee County. I don't think Schauer wants to give up his part of Washtenaw, so that would likely give Rogers Fenton, Grand Blanc, and Linden, making Kildee's district even more democrat and pushing it north/northwest.

My nightmare is carving out Livingston County like it was in the 80's (divided between Bob Carr in Lansing and William Broomfield in Oakland.

In a piece of trivia, I think Carr was one of the last three democrats to win in Livingston County. The others - Frank Kelley, and Richard Austin. 1990 I believe. (maybe 86 - Blanchard also won it then)

Conservative First said...

Don't sell short the Republicans in Kalamazoo County. It may typically go democrat at the federal and state level, but Land and Cox still won in 2006. Historically, it has been dominated by Republicans at the local level, at least outside the city. While the democrats have made some inroads in recent years, Republicans still hold the state senate seat, two of three state house seats, four of six county offices, and eight of seventeen county commission seats (it would be nine if one Republican had bothered to campaign).

While there is no question that the dems will target the senate seat, it would be a mild surpise if they made the 61st a top priority. In 2008, they threw everything (over half a million dollars) into the race and still lost. 2010 will be a better year than 2008. The dems have no credible candidate running, and Republicans have a top-quality candidate unlikely to face a highly contested primary.

Conservative First said...

A few thoughts on redistricting.

I suspect Upton wants to see his district change as little as possible. There is basically no chance he will lose to a democrat, and he has done pretty well in the city of Kalamazoo until the last two cycles. Substantially changing his district might make him vulnerable to a primary challenge.

If there is split control of redistricting (likely), what typically happens is an incumbent protection plan. If the state loses a district, what typically happens is a 'fair fight', where one incumbent of each party is put in the same district, which is drawn with as little lean as possible.

In 2012, the two Detroit seats will be protected by federal law, though they will have to expand further into the suburbs. This may make the current incumbents vulnerable to primary challenges if they don't retire or lose before then.

Stupak's seat will be safe due to geography. Other than that, everyone is vulnerable. A McCotter/Peters fight is possible, but the dynamics could change depending on who retires or loses before then.

It would be very hard to make the 61st district more democrat than it is now. The city of Kalamazoo can't be broken up. The eastern half of Kalamazoo Township is separated from the western half by the city. The only way to unite them would be a horseshoe around the north side of Kalamazoo, but that couldn't include Portage, which leaves the hypothetical 61st too small and not much that could be added to the 60th to make it the right size.

Republicans will probably try to move western K township to the 60th and Cooper to the 61st. The prelimiary census projections make the numbers for this look pretty good.

PB said...

I have a few thoughts on making the 61st more Democratic. Given that Michigan's population was estimated as 10,003,422 in the 2008 ACS numbers, each house district needs to be between 86,393 and 95,487 people. If we keep Portage Township (44,897) as the base of the district, that leaves at least 41,496 more residents needed. Add Pavilion Township (5,829), Comstock Township (13,851), Galesburg (1,988), the eastern portion of Kalamazoo Township (which I've estimated at about 9,000), Cooper Township (8,754), and the eastern portion of Kalamazoo Township (just over 11,000) would make this district meet the population requirements and would give Obama 59% of the vote. A revised 60th District consisting of Kalamazoo City (77,145), Parchment (1,936) and Oshtemo (17,003) would also fit the state district guidelines and give Obama 72% of the vote. This would make the current 61st a much more Democratic district and keep the 60th in the Dem column as well.

Republican Michigander said...

I'm not trying to sell the Kalamazoo Republicans short. It's easy to be a Republican in my area. It's not as easy there, or in Washtenaw County. You've all kept Kalamazoo from turning into Washtenaw County lite (where they did almost everything right in 2004 and still got swept).

In the 8th right now, because of Michigan State's spreading influence, we're fighting in Southern Clinton County (which flipped to Obama). Bath and DeWitt Twps, which also affects the 85th District. In Ingham County, Meridian Twp's (Okemos) almost a lost cause now, about 7-10% consistently less than Oshtemo, which is its equivalent.

There's just some scary factors there, and near the universities overall, unless the bleeding is stopped. The good news is that the impressionable 20 somethings (that aren't political junkies which are the exception rather than the norm) are going to see that Obama is even less competent than Bush was when things aren't changing, much like Granholm is also doing right now. That's a start. The rest is up to candidates and their supporters to sell something with substance instead of trying to be cool, which is why I'd like to see something like Mike Pence run.

Conservative First said...

PB:
According to 2008 census estimates, your proposed 61st district would have about 110,000 people.