Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Congressional District 6 - Redistricted (MI-06)


Incumbent - Fred Upton (R-St Joseph)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 26.
The old 6th District information is here

Challengers - Mike O'Brien (D-Douglas)

Update 8-30-2012 - Fred Upton won his primary in an easier than expected win. 

UPDATE 5-1-2012 -  Jack Hoogendyk has filed a primary challenge to Fred Upton in a rematch of 2010. Upton won the primary last time, but it was not by as large of margin as one would expect. 

This is a largely unchanged district. It drops two townships in Calhoun County to Justin Amash, and gains most of the rest of Allegan County outside the City of Holland (mostly in Ottawa County), which happens to be the most Republican portion of the county, and possibly the most Republican area of the state. Some of those areas are 80%+ GOP most years. That significantly helps Upton, who is in a very difficult district on paper. Upton himself wins easily. His replacement will have a much tougher time.

Kalamazoo County is democrat leaning, although most of the suburbs are competitive, and some of them are republican. Jack Hoogendyk won a difficult district three times, and that stayed GOP when he left. Jace Bolger's district is less difficult but not easy on paper, and that's been GOP for a long time. Tom George and Tonya Schuitmaker won a very difficult countywide state senate district that leans democrat on paper. There is a different in presidential years and non-presidential years in Kalamazoo County with the WMU voters. Van Buren and Cass Counties are almost always close. Berrien and St Joseph Counties are usually republican leaning, although not in 2008. Berrien County does have a democrat stronghold in Benton Harbor/Benton Township with Niles also leaning democrat. The burbs usually outvote the cities.

The old district had a 20000 vote spread for Bush and 32000 vote spread for Obama. The new district solely thanks to the Allegan County help had about a 27000 vote spread for Bush and 28000 vote spread for Obama. It's still a difficult district, but there's less chance to get caught offguard. Upton's weakest percentage overall in the last district is about 58% in 2008. Here's the numbers. I'm using Upton's 08 numbers because it's the same opponent in 2010 (Don Cooney) and shows more individual strength.




2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Allegan County 30061 24165 54226 5896 55.44% 44.56% 10.87%
Holland City -2093 -1391 -3484 -702 60.07% 39.93% 20.15%
Berrien County 36130 40381 76511 -4251 47.22% 52.78% -5.56%
Cass County 11114 12083 23197 -969 47.91% 52.09% -4.18%
Kalamazoo County 51554 77051 128605 -25497 40.09% 59.91% -19.83%
St Joseph County 12886 12322 25208 564 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%
Van Buren County 15534 18588 34122 -3054 45.52% 54.48% -8.95%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 155186 183199 338385 -28013 45.86% 54.14% -8.28%








2004







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Allegan County 34022 19355 53377 14667 63.74% 36.26% 27.48%
Holland City -2479 -941 -3420 -1538 72.49% 27.51% 44.97%
Berrien County 41076 32846 73922 8230 55.57% 44.43% 11.13%
Cass County 12964 9537 22501 3427 57.62% 42.38% 15.23%
Kalamazoo County 57147 61462 118609 -4315 48.18% 51.82% -3.64%
St Joseph County 15340 9648 24988 5692 61.39% 38.61% 22.78%
Van Buren County 17634 16151 33785 1483 52.19% 47.81% 4.39%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 175704 148058 323762 27646 54.27% 45.73% 8.54%








2008







Upton Cooney Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Allegan County 19733 10777 30510 8956 64.68% 35.32% 29.35%
Holland City 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Berrien County 46007 28530 74537 17477 61.72% 38.28% 23.45%
Cass County 14234 8148 22382 6086 63.60% 36.40% 27.19%
Kalamazoo County 68028 55599 123627 12429 55.03% 44.97% 10.05%
St Joseph County 17676 6925 24601 10751 71.85% 28.15% 43.70%
Van Buren County 20628 12461 33089 8167 62.34% 37.66% 24.68%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 186306 122440 308746 63866 60.34% 39.66% 20.69%

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