Monday, March 31, 2014

MI-08 - Poll calls are out (Updated - Poll from Murray Communications)

I got a call from one of the county folks here. He said he was receiving a poll that listed five potential candidates for the 8th District. This was likely paid by the candidate or a "friend of the program" and it listed five names. We both expected it was paid for by someone not yet in doing a poll for a starting point.

Going in alphabetical order

Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett
Mike Bishop
Steve Hantler
Joe Hune.



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UPDATED:

The poll was from Murray Communications, a consulting firm that works for Marty Knollenberg. It's a wide open race. Joe Hune hasn't decided. I've heard Hantler is unlikely and he doesn't live in the district. Anuzis hasn't decided.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE      
TUESDAY, APRIL 1, 2014

CONTACT: MURRAY COMMUNICATIONS: (517) 505-0447
PORTABLE INSIGHTS: (401) 352-4005 x210    
COMBAT DATA: (517) 449-7058

BISHOP LEADS HUNE AMONG REPUBLICANS IN RACE TO REPLACE ROGERS

OKEMOS, MI – Former State Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) holds a 22.96% to 17.65% lead over State Senator Joe Hune (R-Fowlerville) in the race to succeed retiring Congressman Mike Rogers, according to a survey of Republican primary voters conducted by Murray Communications-Portable Insights-Combat Data. Nearly half of respondents were undecided.

In addition to Bishop and Hune, the following Republicans were included in the survey: Saul Anuzis (R-Lansing), Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), and Steve Hantler (R-West Bloomfield).

The automated survey of 884 likely 8th District Republican primary voters was conducted on Monday, March 31 and has a margin of error of 3.29%. Full results follow:

8th District..............100.00% (884)

Mike Bishop................22.96% (203)
Joe Hune...................17.65% (156)
Bryan Barnett...............5.66%  (50)
Saul Anuzis.................3.51%  (31)
Steve Hantler...............1.58%  (14)
Undecided..................48.64% (430)

“Bishop’s numbers initial numbers are good, but there may be dark clouds on the horizon as other Oakland County based candidates ramp up their campaigns. So far, Hune has Livingston County all to himself and next door Ingham County is wide open,” said Mike Murray of Murray Communications.

“Aside from the loud ticking coming from nominating petition clock for the potential candidates, this primary is still in it primordial stage. Geographically, Hune’s centralized location should give him vote momentum opportunities in both directions fairly quickly if he gets in the game,” said Brian Bellgowan of Combat Data.

“The field is still pretty fluid and voters are up for grabs,” said Christopher Mark of Portable Insights. “Nearly half of voters are not settled on any of these candidates, meaning that any one of them -- or perhaps someone else -- has a chance to break out, but they’re going to have to act quickly.”

The poll is a collaborative effort between Murray Communications, a Michigan-based Republican political consulting firm; Portable Insights, a Rhode Island-based opinion research company; and Combat Data Inc., a Michigan-based political data and voter outreach services company. 

Murray Communications can be contacted by phone at (517) 505-0447, by email at contact@murrcomm.net or on the Internet at www.MurrayCommunications.com. Facebook: facebook.com/murrcomm Twitter: @MurrComm.

Portable Insights can be contacted at (401) 352-4005 x210, or by email at chris@portableinsights.com or on the Internet at www.PortableInsights.com. Facebook: facebook.com/portableinsights Twitter: @VoteMiner.

Combat Data can be contacted at (517) 449-7058, by email at listdp@comcast.net, or on the Internet at www.CombatData.com.
Facebook: facebook.com/combatdatainc

None of the companies currently represent any of the individuals named in the poll.

# # #

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TOTAL UNIVERSE AND SELECTION CRITERIA:
884 identified Republicans who have voted in at least two out of the last three primary elections.
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8th District Congressional Robo Poll - Script
March 31, 2014
884 Sample, MOE 3.29% @ 95% Confidence

This is an automated survey of Republican Primary voters. This one-question survey will take approximately 90 seconds to complete. 

Current Republican Congressman Mike Rogers announced last week that he would not seek reelection. There are five Republicans who’ve either announced they’re running, or expressed an interest in running.

In August, Republicans will vote in a Primary Election to select their party’s choice for the November General Election.

I will now read you the names of these five Republicans -- twice. I will then ask you to use the touch-tone on your phone to select the individual you prefer THE MOST. If you are undecided, you will have the option to indicate that.

Please listen carefully, the Republicans are:

Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett
Mike Bishop
Joe Hune
Steve Hantler

Those Republicans, again, in a different order, are:

Joe Hune
Mike Bishop
Steve Hantler
Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett

If you would like to hear those names again, please press ZERO now. If you’re ready to choose, please wait for prompt, as the names will be read, again, in a different order.

Q1 If your choice is Steve Hantler, please press ONE NOW
If your choice is Bryan Barnett, please press TWO NOW
If your choice is Joe Hune, please press THREE NOW
If your choice is Mike Bishop, please press FOUR NOW
If your choice is Saul Anuzis, please press FIVE NOW
If you’re Undecided, please press SIX NOW.

This concludes our survey. This survey was paid for by Murray Communications, Portable Insights and Combat Data, and is not authorized by any candidate or candidate committee.

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COUNTY BREAKOUTS:

Oakland County.............45.02% (398)

Mike Bishop................42.96% (171)
Bryan Barnett..............10.55%  (42)
Saul Anuzis.................3.27%  (13)
Joe Hune....................1.76%   (7)
Steve Hantler...............1.51%   (6)
Undecided..................39.95% (159)
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Livingston County..........34.95% (309)

Joe Hune...................44.34% (137)
Mike Bishop.................5.50%  (17)
Saul Anuzis.................1.94%   (6)
Steve Hantler...............1.94%   (6)
Bryan Barnett...............1.29%   (4)
Undecided..................44.98% (139)
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Ingham County..............20.02% (177)

Mike Bishop.................8.47%  (15)
Saul Anuzis.................6.78%  (12)
Joe Hune....................6.78%  (12)
Bryan Barnett...............2.26%   (4)
Steve Hantler...............1.13%   (2)
Undecided..................74.58% (132)

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