Updated 5-18-2010 - Listed the candidates that passed the filing deadline.
Updated 8-4-2010 - Primary results
The 2nd Congressional District (MI-02) is opening up for the first time in decades.
Michigan's 2nd District - Congress
Incumbent - Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland) - Not running for re-election - running for Governor.
Candidates:
GOP - Bill Huizenga
Dems - Fred Johnson
Years in office as of 2010 election - 18.
Cook District Numbers - R+7
Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 51%
Obama - 48%
2004:
Bush – 60%
Kerry – 39%
2000:
Bush 59%
Gore 39%
The 2nd District runs along the Lake Michigan coast. It is anchored by two major cities, Holland and Muskegon. It contains Benzie, Lake, Manistee, Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Ottawa, and Wexford Counties. It also contains the townships of Alpine, Solon, Sparta, and Tyrone in Kent County, and contains Fillmore, Heath, Laketown, Manlius, Monterey, Overisel, Salem, and Saugatuck Townships, part of Dorr Township, and the cities of Douglas, Fennville Holland, and Saugatuck in Allegan County.
This is historically the most Republican district in Michigan, and in MOST years, solidly republican. The question now is whether the MAJOR blue shift in West Michigan is due to the last three years of Bush and Obama's candidacy, or is it a real allignment in the West side of the state. I don't know. We'll find out more this year. I do have my concerns.
Pete Hoekstra always ran strong here, well ahead of the ticket, even when the GOP had a big year. His worst general election numbers outside of 1992 (63%) were in 2008, and that was still 62%.His best was in 1994 (75%) followed by 2002 which is the current district (70%). The bad news. Hoekstra's not running this year.
I'll be honest. I'm concerned about this district. I think whoever wins the GOP primary needs to be ready for a fight. There are several reasons.
1. The GOP margins in the Dutch areas are dipping.
2. The Lakeshore has a Chicago influence. Advantage Obama. A lot of vacation homes are on the coast, and many of them are from transplants. The GOP numbers by percentage shrunk statewide including the east side, but the west side plummeted much more than the east side. 5-6% drops on the East Side, and often 10% out west.
3. The economy. Always an issue.
4. Muskegon. Muskegon is heavily blue and getting bluer.
5. Several Bush counties went for Obama.
I'll start with Hoekstra's 2004 and then 2008 election numbers. Hoesktra won every county outside of Muskegon in 2008. I'm not that concerned on Muskegon. It's democrat. Here's 2004.
2004 Election
| Hoekstra
| Kotos
| 3rd party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Benzie
| 5,268
| 3,412
| 94
| 8,774
| 1856
| 60.04%
| 38.89%
| 21.15%
|
Lake
| 2,879
| 2,010
| 124
| 5,013
| 869
| 57.43%
| 40.10%
| 17.33%
|
Manistee
| 7,432
| 4,245
| 195
| 11,872
| 3187
| 62.60%
| 35.76%
| 26.84%
|
Mason
| 9,144
| 4,780
| 192
| 14,116
| 4364
| 64.78%
| 33.86%
| 30.92%
|
Muskegon
| 42,350
| 32,342
| 995
| 75,687
| 10008
| 55.95%
| 42.73%
| 13.22%
|
Newaygo
| 15,050
| 6,608
| 606
| 22,264
| 8442
| 67.60%
| 29.68%
| 37.92%
|
Oceana
| 7,579
| 3,777
| 152
| 11,508
| 3802
| 65.86%
| 32.82%
| 33.04%
|
Ottawa
| 99,422
| 24,303
| 2152
| 125,877
| 75119
| 78.98%
| 19.31%
| 59.68%
|
Wexford
| 10,092
| 4,163
| 315
| 14,570
| 5929
| 69.27%
| 28.57%
| 40.69%
|
Kent Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alpine Twp
| 4,009
| 1,969
| 158
| 6,136
| 2040
| 65.34%
| 32.09%
| 33.25%
|
Solon Twp (2)
| 1,230
| 454
| 49
| 1,733
| 776
| 70.98%
| 26.20%
| 44.78%
|
Sparta Twp
| 2,853
| 1,052
| 105
| 4,010
| 1801
| 71.15%
| 26.23%
| 44.91%
|
Tyrone Twp
| 1,464
| 503
| 39
| 2,006
| 961
| 72.98%
| 25.07%
| 47.91%
|
Allegan Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dorr Twp (1)
| 474
| 130
| 16
| 620
| 344
| 76.45%
| 20.97%
| 55.48%
|
Dorr Twp (2)
| 929
| 252
| 27
| 1,208
| 677
| 76.90%
| 20.86%
| 56.04%
|
City of Douglas
| 0
| 0
| 0
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
City of Fennville
| 265
| 146
| 11
| 422
| 119
| 62.80%
| 34.60%
| 28.20%
|
Heath Twp
| 1326
| 254
| 34
| 1,614
| 1072
| 82.16%
| 15.74%
| 66.42%
|
City of Holland
| 2713
| 640
| 60
| 3,413
| 2073
| 79.49%
| 18.75%
| 60.74%
|
Laketown Twp
| 2,949
| 664
| 52
| 3,665
| 2285
| 80.46%
| 18.12%
| 62.35%
|
Manlius Twp
| 1,172
| 277
| 34
| 1,483
| 895
| 79.03%
| 18.68%
| 60.35%
|
Monterey Twp
| 682
| 254
| 29
| 965
| 428
| 70.67%
| 26.32%
| 44.35%
|
Overisel Twp
| 1,420
| 96
| 18
| 1,534
| 1324
| 92.57%
| 6.26%
| 86.31%
|
Salem Twp
| 1,498
| 341
| 37
| 1,876
| 1157
| 79.85%
| 18.18%
| 61.67%
|
City of Saugatuck
| 383
| 303
| 16
| 702
| 80
| 54.56%
| 43.16%
| 11.40%
|
Saugatuck Twp
| 1,303
| 909
| 46
| 2,258
| 394
| 57.71%
| 40.26%
| 17.45%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 223,886
| 93,884
| 5556
| 323,326
| 130002
| 69.24%
| 29.04%
| 40.21%
|
This was one of his better showings. Overall - he won everywhere except the following areas. Gilmore Twp in Benzie County. It's a small and very democrat area. Webber and Yates Twps in Lake County. Also democrat strongholds. Muskegon and Muskegon Heights in Muskegon County. Merrill Twp in Newaygo County. That's it. That's pretty good, and why he won with 69% in 2004. 2008 is slightly different, but still good compared to McCain. It's still ahead of Bush's numbers in this district. I think part of the drop is also the banks bailout. Look at the 3rd party number increases as well.
2008 Election
| Hoekstra
| Johnson
| 3rd party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Benzie
| 5,503
| 4,052
| 301
| 9,856
| 1451
| 55.83%
| 41.11%
| 14.72%
|
Lake
| 2,745
| 2,217
| 163
| 5,125
| 528
| 53.56%
| 43.26%
| 10.30%
|
Manistee
| 7,287
| 4,999
| 413
| 12,699
| 2288
| 57.38%
| 39.37%
| 18.02%
|
Mason
| 9,295
| 5,149
| 345
| 14,789
| 4146
| 62.85%
| 34.82%
| 28.03%
|
Muskegon
| 38,098
| 41,426
| 2033
| 81,557
| -3328
| 46.71%
| 50.79%
| -4.08%
|
Newaygo
| 13,884
| 7,499
| 1091
| 22,474
| 6385
| 61.78%
| 33.37%
| 28.41%
|
Oceana
| 7,511
| 4,313
| 383
| 12,207
| 3198
| 61.53%
| 35.33%
| 26.20%
|
Ottawa
| 95,600
| 34,344
| 3291
| 133,235
| 61256
| 71.75%
| 25.78%
| 45.98%
|
Wexford
| 9,588
| 4,899
| 671
| 15,158
| 4689
| 63.25%
| 32.32%
| 30.93%
|
Kent Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alpine Twp
| 3,620
| 2,352
| 197
| 6,169
| 1268
| 58.68%
| 38.13%
| 20.55%
|
Solon Twp (2)
| 1,225
| 555
| 69
| 1,849
| 670
| 66.25%
| 30.02%
| 36.24%
|
Sparta Twp
| 2,641
| 1,237
| 135
| 4,013
| 1404
| 65.81%
| 30.82%
| 34.99%
|
Tyrone Twp
| 1,398
| 623
| 65
| 2,086
| 775
| 67.02%
| 29.87%
| 37.15%
|
Allegan Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dorr Twp (1)
| 455
| 164
| 16
| 635
| 291
| 71.65%
| 25.83%
| 45.83%
|
Dorr Twp (2)
| 979
| 330
| 43
| 1,352
| 649
| 72.41%
| 24.41%
| 48.00%
|
City of Douglas
| 322
| 373
| 17
| 712
| -51
| 45.22%
| 52.39%
| -7.16%
|
City of Fennville
| 234
| 187
| 11
| 432
| 47
| 54.17%
| 43.29%
| 10.88%
|
Heath Twp
| 1311
| 365
| 51
| 1,727
| 946
| 75.91%
| 21.13%
| 54.78%
|
City of Holland
| 2448
| 986
| 40
| 3,474
| 1462
| 70.47%
| 28.38%
| 42.08%
|
Laketown Twp
| 2,605
| 942
| 70
| 3,617
| 1663
| 72.02%
| 26.04%
| 45.98%
|
Manlius Twp
| 1,135
| 376
| 34
| 1,545
| 759
| 73.46%
| 24.34%
| 49.13%
|
Monterey Twp
| 680
| 305
| 45
| 1,030
| 375
| 66.02%
| 29.61%
| 36.41%
|
Overisel Twp
| 1,421
| 164
| 42
| 1,627
| 1257
| 87.34%
| 10.08%
| 77.26%
|
Salem Twp
| 1,638
| 412
| 73
| 2,123
| 1226
| 77.15%
| 19.41%
| 57.75%
|
City of Saugatuck
| 300
| 308
| 14
| 622
| -8
| 48.23%
| 49.52%
| -1.29%
|
Saugatuck Twp
| 968
| 718
| 54
| 1,740
| 250
| 55.63%
| 41.26%
| 14.37%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 212,891
| 119,295
| 9667
| 341,853
| 93596
| 62.28%
| 34.90%
| 27.38%
|
Obama is part of the difference here with Muskegon County, as well as Douglas and Saugatuck in Allegan County. In the former, there is a large minority population. In the latter, the arts and gays crowd. Hoekstra still did well and won most places. He only lost Gilmore and Platte Twps in Benzie County. Platte Twp went for Bush in 04. In Lake County, Pleasant Plains, Webber, and Yates went for Johnson. Those are dem strongholds. Hoekstra still swept Manistee and Mason counties, which went for Obama. Muskegon was rougher. Hoekstra lost the county, which is a stronghold for the democrats. Egelston Twp and Muskegon Twp flipped. The cities of Muskegon and Muskegon Heights stayed blue. That's all that was needed to flip the county. Merrill Twp also stayed blue. The rest did not change, but I think the Hoekstra numbers masks the 04 to 08 change here.
Here's Bush's 04 numbers.
2004 Election
| Bush
| Kerry
| 3rd party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Benzie
| 5,284
| 4,383
| 112
| 9,779
| 901
| 54.03%
| 44.82%
| 9.21%
|
Lake
| 2,503
| 2,675
| 68
| 5,246
| -172
| 47.71%
| 50.99%
| -3.28%
|
Manistee
| 6,295
| 6,272
| 173
| 12,740
| 23
| 49.41%
| 49.23%
| 0.18%
|
Mason
| 8,124
| 6,333
| 345
| 14,802
| 1791
| 54.88%
| 42.78%
| 12.10%
|
Muskegon
| 35,302
| 44,282
| 594
| 80,178
| -8980
| 44.03%
| 55.23%
| -11.20%
|
Newaygo
| 13,608
| 9,057
| 208
| 22,873
| 4551
| 59.49%
| 39.60%
| 19.90%
|
Oceana
| 6,677
| 5,441
| 179
| 12,297
| 1236
| 54.30%
| 44.25%
| 10.05%
|
Ottawa
| 92,048
| 35,552
| 1043
| 128,643
| 56496
| 71.55%
| 27.64%
| 43.92%
|
Wexford
| 8,966
| 6,034
| 160
| 15,160
| 2932
| 59.14%
| 39.80%
| 19.34%
|
Kent Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alpine Twp
| 3,722
| 2,658
| 66
| 6,446
| 1064
| 57.74%
| 41.23%
| 16.51%
|
Solon Twp (2)
| 1,175
| 608
| 14
| 1,797
| 567
| 65.39%
| 33.83%
| 31.55%
|
Sparta Twp
| 2,686
| 1,488
| 61
| 4,235
| 1198
| 63.42%
| 35.14%
| 28.29%
|
Tyrone Twp
| 1,384
| 654
| 20
| 2,058
| 730
| 67.25%
| 31.78%
| 35.47%
|
Allegan Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dorr Twp (1)
| 446
| 185
| 7
| 638
| 261
| 69.91%
| 29.00%
| 40.91%
|
Dorr Twp (2)
| 887
| 350
| 14
| 1,251
| 537
| 70.90%
| 27.98%
| 42.93%
|
City of Douglas
| 0
| 0
| 0
| -
| 0
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
| #DIV/0!
|
City of Fennville
| 235
| 201
| 4
| 440
| 34
| 53.41%
| 45.68%
| 7.73%
|
Heath Twp
| 1267
| 355
| 12
| 1,634
| 912
| 77.54%
| 21.73%
| 55.81%
|
City of Holland
| 2479
| 941
| 32
| 3,452
| 1538
| 71.81%
| 27.26%
| 44.55%
|
Laketown Twp
| 2,711
| 961
| 26
| 3,698
| 1750
| 73.31%
| 25.99%
| 47.32%
|
Manlius Twp
| 1,091
| 412
| 12
| 1,515
| 679
| 72.01%
| 27.19%
| 44.82%
|
Monterey Twp
| 628
| 360
| 10
| 998
| 268
| 62.93%
| 36.07%
| 26.85%
|
Overisel Twp
| 1,389
| 163
| 4
| 1,556
| 1226
| 89.27%
| 10.48%
| 78.79%
|
Salem Twp
| 1,450
| 457
| 11
| 1,918
| 993
| 75.60%
| 23.83%
| 51.77%
|
City of Saugatuck
| 311
| 389
| 10
| 710
| -78
| 43.80%
| 54.79%
| -10.99%
|
Saugatuck Twp
| 1,122
| 1,145
| 35
| 2,302
| -23
| 48.74%
| 49.74%
| -1.00%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 201,790
| 131,356
| 3220
| 336,366
| 70434
| 59.99%
| 39.05%
| 20.94%
|
Those are pretty good numbers. Manistee County went for Gore 00 and flipped. The rest of the blue zones in 2000 (Lake, Muskegon) were blue in 2004 on a countywide basis. In 04, the blue areas were as follows.
Benzie County - City of Frankfort and Gilmore Twp.
Lake County - Eden Twp, Newkirk Twp, Pleasant Plains Twp, Webber Twp, and Yates Twp.
Manistee County - Dickson Twp, Filer Twp, City of Manistee, Manistee Twp, Norman Twp, Springdale Twp, and Stronach Twp
Mason County - Free Soil Twp, Grant Twp, and Sheridan Twp
Muskegon County - Cedar Creek Twp, Dalton Twp, Egelston Twp, City of Montague, City of Muskegon (by 6134), City of Muskegon Heights (by 3600), Muskegon Twp, City of Roosevelt Park, Sullivan Twp, and the City of Whitehall.
Newaygo County - Big Prarie Twp, Denver Twp, Lilley Twp, Merrill Twp, and Troy Twp
Oceana County - Colfax Twp, Crystal Twp, Ferry Twp, Leavitt Twp, Newfield Twp, and Otto Twp.
2008 was a different story. It was a 3pt "win" for the GOP, which I consider about a 10pt loss.
2008 Election
| McCain
| Obama
| 3rd party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
Benzie
| 4,687
| 5,451
| 171
| 10,309
| -764
| 45.47%
| 52.88%
| -7.41%
|
Lake
| 2,269
| 2,919
| 102
| 5,290
| -650
| 42.89%
| 55.18%
| -12.29%
|
Manistee
| 5,510
| 7,235
| 254
| 12,999
| -1725
| 42.39%
| 55.66%
| -13.27%
|
Mason
| 7,147
| 7,817
| 259
| 15,223
| -670
| 46.95%
| 51.35%
| -4.40%
|
Muskegon
| 29,145
| 53,821
| 1305
| 84,271
| -24676
| 34.58%
| 63.87%
| -29.28%
|
Newaygo
| 11,862
| 10,790
| 453
| 23,105
| 1072
| 51.34%
| 46.70%
| 4.64%
|
Oceana
| 5,860
| 6,405
| 244
| 12,509
| -545
| 46.85%
| 51.20%
| -4.36%
|
Ottawa
| 83,330
| 50,828
| 2110
| 136,268
| 32502
| 61.15%
| 37.30%
| 23.85%
|
Wexford
| 8,044
| 7,379
| 281
| 15,704
| 665
| 51.22%
| 46.99%
| 4.23%
|
Kent Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alpine Twp
| 3,110
| 3,229
| 113
| 6,452
| -119
| 48.20%
| 50.05%
| -1.84%
|
Solon Twp (2)
| 1,075
| 794
| 40
| 1,909
| 281
| 56.31%
| 41.59%
| 14.72%
|
Sparta Twp
| 2,277
| 1,814
| 91
| 4,182
| 463
| 54.45%
| 43.38%
| 11.07%
|
Tyrone Twp
| 1,206
| 903
| 30
| 2,139
| 303
| 56.38%
| 42.22%
| 14.17%
|
Allegan Co:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dorr Twp (1)
| 416
| 230
| 10
| 656
| 186
| 63.41%
| 35.06%
| 28.35%
|
Dorr Twp (2)
| 902
| 469
| 28
| 1,399
| 433
| 64.47%
| 33.52%
| 30.95%
|
City of Douglas
| 246
| 472
| 7
| 725
| -226
| 33.93%
| 65.10%
| -31.17%
|
City of Fennville
| 163
| 279
| 6
| 448
| -116
| 36.38%
| 62.28%
| -25.89%
|
Heath Twp
| 1204
| 506
| 38
| 1,748
| 698
| 68.88%
| 28.95%
| 39.93%
|
City of Holland
| 2093
| 1,391
| 40
| 3,524
| 702
| 59.39%
| 39.47%
| 19.92%
|
Laketown Twp
| 2,318
| 1,285
| 53
| 3,656
| 1033
| 63.40%
| 35.15%
| 28.25%
|
Manlius Twp
| 991
| 569
| 20
| 1,580
| 422
| 62.72%
| 36.01%
| 26.71%
|
Monterey Twp
| 597
| 450
| 20
| 1,067
| 147
| 55.95%
| 42.17%
| 13.78%
|
Overisel Twp
| 1,334
| 274
| 32
| 1,640
| 1060
| 81.34%
| 16.71%
| 64.63%
|
Salem Twp
| 1,509
| 630
| 48
| 2,187
| 879
| 69.00%
| 28.81%
| 40.19%
|
City of Saugatuck
| 229
| 396
| 13
| 638
| -167
| 35.89%
| 62.07%
| -26.18%
|
Saugatuck Twp
| 779
| 963
| 27
| 1,769
| -184
| 44.04%
| 54.44%
| -10.40%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
| 178,303
| 167,299
| 5795
| 351,397
| 11004
| 50.74%
| 47.61%
| 3.13%
|
This is why I'm keeping an eye on this seat for 2010. While it's ours to lose, it's too close to comfort for an open seat without Pete Hoekstra running. Instead of blue zones as in 2004, counties were blue. Even Ottawa County had blue zones. The City of Grand Haven went blue, as did of all places, Ottawa's portion of Holland.
Breaking it down further. Comparing 2004 and 2008.
2004:
Ottawa County - Bush 71.55%, Kerry 27.64% - 128,643 votes. 56,496 vote spread.
North County Portion - Bush 55.39%, 43.27% - 92,897 votes. 11,262 vote spread.
Allegan County Portion - Bush 69.69%, Kerry 29.43%, 20,112 votes. 8097 vote spread.
Kent County portion - Bush 61.69%, Kerry 37.20% - 14,536 votes. - 3559 vote spread
Muskegon County - Kerry 55.23%, Bush 44.03% - 80,178 votes. -8980 vote spread
Total - Bush 59.99%, Kerry 39.05% - 336,366 votes. 70,434 vote spread
Obama needed to make up 70,434 votes to take the district. He made up almost 60,000.
2008:
Ottawa County - McCain 61.15%, Obama 37.30% -136,269 votes, 32502 vote spread (cut by 24,000 votes)
North County Portion - Obama 50.45%, McCain 47.70% - 95,139 votes. -2617 vote spread (flip of almost 14,000 votes)
Allegan County Portion - McCain 60.75%, Obama 37.62% - 21037 votes, 4867 vote spread. (cut by about 3200)
Kent County Portion - McCain 52.23%, Obama 45.91% - 14,682 votes, 928 vote spread. (cut by about 2600)
Muskegon County - Obama 63.87%, McCain 34.58% - 84,271 votes. -24678 votes. (Increased by about 15000)
Now do you see the concern here with an open seat. The big base is Ottawa County, still the most Republican County in the state. Three of the candidates are from Ottawa County (Huizenga, Kuipers, and Riemersma). Bill Cooper is from Fruitport in Muskegon County. The three from Ottawa County all have strong name recognition (not sure about Cooper one way or the other). Kuipers is a State Senator. Huizenga was a state rep until 2008. Riemersma has never held elected office, but played TE for the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Michigan Wolverines. Most football fans know who he is. The only democrat announced if Fred Johnson.
It'll be interesting who gets past the primary, and who runs for the democrats. Fred Johnson doesn't scare me. Julie Dennis doesn't scare me. She lost a district she should have won. Mary Valentine is running for state senate instead, and will be a formidable candidate there. Here's some of the farm club for the future.
State Senate 35 - Covers Benzie, Clare, Kalkaska, Lake, Leelanau, Manistee, Mecosta, Missaukee, Osceola, Roscommon, and Wexford Counties. Benzie, Lake, Manistee, and Wexford counties are in the district. Michelle McManus, from Leelanau County, is termed out as State Senator, and running for Secretary of State. This is an open seat.
St Senate 35th
| GOP
| Dem
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
06 - McManus/Schippers
| 62199
| 40836
| 2146
| 105,181
| 21363
| 59.14%
| 38.82%
| 20.31%
|
02 - McManus/Dahlberg
| 51405
| 30942
| 2076
| 84,423
| 20463
| 60.89%
| 36.65%
| 24.24%
|
St. Senate 34th - Covers Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties. This is also an open seat and the dems think they have a very good shot at this. Obama won three of the counties, and Muskegon is a base county. Gerald Van Woerkom is termed out and won two close races here by narrowing his losses in Muskegon and running well in the outcounties.
St Senate 34th
| GOP
| Dem
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
06 - VanWoerkom/Dennis
| 52,233
| 50,870
|
| 103,103
| 1363
| 50.66%
| 49.34%
| 1.32%
|
02 - VanWoerkom/Shrauger
| 42,180
| 41,233
| 1882
| 85,295
| 947
| 49.45%
| 48.34%
| 1.11%
|
St Senate 30th - Covers Ottawa County, and in Kent County the City of Grandville, Sparta Township. All except Grandville is in the 2nd district. Wayne Kuipers is termed out and running for Hoekstra's seat.
St Senate 30th
| GOP
| Dem
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
06 - Kuipers/VanderStoep
| 83,242
| 31,328
| 2223
| 116,793
| 51914
| 71.27%
| 26.82%
| 44.45%
|
02 - Kuipers/O'Brien
| 71,160
| 21,701
| 1637
| 94,498
| 49459
| 75.30%
| 22.96%
| 52.34%
|
St Senate 28th - Covers Ada Twp, Algoma Twp, Alpine Twp, Bowne Twp, Byron Twp, Caledonia Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, Gaines Twp, Grand Rapids twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Spencer Twp, Tyrone Twp, City of Walker, and City of Wyoming. Alpine Twp, part of Solon Twp, and Tyrone Twp is in the district.
St Senate 28th
| GOP
| Dem
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
06 - Jansen/Abbassee
| 78,234
| 42,227
| 2646
| 123,107
| 36007
| 63.55%
| 34.30%
| 29.25%
|
02 - Sikkema/Berry
| 72,993
| 25,425
| 1373
| 99,791
| 47568
| 73.15%
| 25.48%
| 47.67%
|
State Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Allegan is in the 2nd district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.
| St Senate 24th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 06 - Birkholz/Royston | 64,737 | 46,480 |
| 111,217 | 18257 | 58.21% | 41.79% | 16.42% |
| 02 - Birkholz/Birdson | 57,906 | 32,170 |
| 90,076 | 25736 | 64.29% | 35.71% | 28.57% |
State Rep 102nd - Covers Mecosta, Osceola, and Wexford Counties. Wexford is in the 2nd district.
St Rep 102nd
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Booher/Heffron
| 26,212
| 16,002
| 1241
| 43,455
| 10210
| 60.32%
| 36.82%
| 23.50%
|
06 - Booher/Heffron
| 21,637
| 13,260
|
| 34,897
| 8377
| 62.00%
| 38.00%
| 24.00%
|
04 - Booher/Challender
| 26,000
| 14,761
|
| 40,761
| 11239
| 63.79%
| 36.21%
| 27.57%
|
02 - Johnson/Challender
| 17,815
| 8,805
|
| 26,620
| 9010
| 66.92%
| 33.08%
| 33.85%
|
State Rep 101st - Covers Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee, and Mason counties. This seat flipped in 2008 after Republican David Palsok was termed out. there was a tough primary fight, and Dan Scripps, the democrat worked his ass off in this district. He was aided by Obama winning this district, but a lot of this I think he did on his own. He's probably the opponent I'd least like to see run for the 2nd, or for the McManus State Senate seat. Scripps won Leelanau County in 2006 against Palsrok and won all counties in 2008.
St Rep 101st
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Franz/Scripps
| 20,748
| 30,984
|
| 51,732
| -10236
| 40.11%
| 59.89%
| -19.79%
|
06 - Palsrok/Scripps
| 21,776
| 20,132
|
| 41,908
| 1644
| 51.96%
| 48.04%
| 3.92%
|
04 - Palsrok/Gebhard
| 26,990
| 21,457
|
| 48,447
| 5533
| 55.71%
| 44.29%
| 11.42%
|
02 - Palsrok/Krieger
| 18,684
| 15,754
|
| 34,438
| 2930
| 54.25%
| 45.75%
| 8.51%
|
St Rep 100 - Covers Lake, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties. This district leans Republican and is opened up with Goeff Hansen term limited. Lake county is democrat, and Oceana is competitive. Newaygo is still strongly Republican and is the most populated part of the district.
St Rep 100th
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Hansen/Richards
| 21,940
| 16,343
| 1021
| 39,304
| 5597
| 55.82%
| 41.58%
| 14.24%
|
06 - Hansen/Richards
| 19,139
| 13,590
|
| 32,729
| 5549
| 58.48%
| 41.52%
| 16.95%
|
04 - Hansen/Griffin
| 23,270
| 14,863
|
| 38,133
| 8407
| 61.02%
| 38.98%
| 22.05%
|
02 - Pumford/Sterling
| 16,959
| 9,279
|
| 26,238
| 7680
| 64.64%
| 35.36%
| 29.27%
|
St Rep 92 - Covers Fruitland Twp, Laketon Twp, the City of Muskegon, the City of Muskegon Heights, Muskegon Twp, and the city of North Muskegon. It is the most democrat part of Muskegon County and the 2nd district. It is an open seat with Doug Bennett termed out.
St Rep 92nd
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - McCormick/Bennett
| 9,615
| 26,384
|
| 35,999
| -16769
| 26.71%
| 73.29%
| -46.58%
|
06 - Harris-Barnell/Bennett
| 7,615
| 18,333
|
| 25,948
| -10718
| 29.35%
| 70.65%
| -41.31%
|
04 - Cutler/Bennett
| 11,804
| 22,498
|
| 34,302
| -10694
| 34.41%
| 65.59%
| -31.18%
|
02 - Boughton/Dennis
| 7,471
| 15,339
|
| 22,810
| -7868
| 32.75%
| 67.25%
| -34.49%
|
St Rep 91 - Covers Blue Lake Twp, Casnovia Twp, Cedar Creek Twp, Dalton Twp, Egelston Twp, Fruitport Twp, Holton Twp, City of Montague, Montague Twp, Moorland Twp, City of Norton Shores, Raveena Twp, City of Roosevelt Park, Sullivan Twp, White River Twp, Whitehall Twp, the City of Whitehall in Muskegon County, and Chester Twp in Ottawa County. It is a competitive district that has gone for David Farhat for the GOP and Mary Valentine for the Dems. It is opening up as Valentine is running for State Senate.
St Rep 91st
| GOP
| Dem
| 3rd Party
| Total
| Diff.
| GOP%
| Dem%
| Diff%
|
08 - Hughes/Valentine
| 21,035
| 24,445
|
| 45,480
| -3410
| 46.25%
| 53.75%
| -7.50%
|
06 - Farhat/Valentine
| 15,745
| 19,945
|
| 35,690
| -4200
| 44.12%
| 55.88%
| -11.77%
|
04 - Farhat/Frye
| 22,327
| 20,587
|
| 42,914
| 1740
| 52.03%
| 47.97%
| 4.05%
|
02 - Farhat/Frye
| 14,892
| 14,450
|
| 29,342
| 442
| 50.75%
| 49.25%
| 1.51%
|
St Rep 90 - Covers Blendon Twp, City of Holland, Holland Twp, City of Hudsonville, Jamestown Twp, City of Zeeland, and Zeeland Twp in Ottawa County. This is one of the most republican districts in the country with Jamestown Twp, Zeeland and Hudsonville. Holland usually is solid GOP, although Obama won the Ottawa portion.
| St Rep 90th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Haveman/Stauffer | 31,223 | 12,011 |
| 43,234 | 19212 | 72.22% | 27.78% | 44.44% |
| 06 - Huizenga/Stauffer | 27,350 | 7,593 |
| 34,943 | 19757 | 78.27% | 21.73% | 56.54% |
| 04 - Huizenga/Bartlett | 32,383 | 7,607 | 1233 | 41,223 | 24776 | 78.56% | 18.45% | 60.10% |
| 02 - Huizenga/Breese | 22,940 | 5,168 |
| 28,108 | 17772 | 81.61% | 18.39% | 63.23% |
St Rep 88 - Most of Allegan County (and all of Allegan in the 2nd)
| St Rep 88th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Genetski/Clark | 29,064 | 18,119 |
| 47,183 | 10945 | 61.60% | 38.40% | 23.20% |
| 06 - Sheen/Weichman | 24,831 | 14,484 | 1043 | 40,358 | 10347 | 61.53% | 35.89% | 25.64% |
| 04 - Sheen/Fleser | 31,300 | 15,282 |
| 46,582 | 16018 | 67.19% | 32.81% | 34.39% |
| 02 - Sheen/Fleser | 20,727 | 9,497 |
| 30,224 | 11230 | 68.58% | 31.42% | 37.16% |
St Rep 74 -Covers Alpine Twp and the City of Grandville in Kent County and the City of Coopersville, Crokckery Twp, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallmadge Twp, and Wright Twp in Ottawa County. All except Grandville is in the 2nd District.
| St Rep 74th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Agema/Chase | 36,207 | 13,421 | 1911 | 51,539 | 22786 | 70.25% | 26.04% | 44.21% |
| 06 - Agema/Kauffman | 30,495 | 12,109 | 880 | 43,484 | 18386 | 70.13% | 27.85% | 42.28% |
| 04 - VanRegenmorter/Sloboda | 38,380 | 12,009 | 719 | 51,108 | 26371 | 75.10% | 23.50% | 51.60% |
| 02 - VanRegenmorter/Barringer | 28,234 | 7,492 | 407 | 36,133 | 20742 | 78.14% | 20.73% | 57.40% |
St Rep 73 - Covers Algoma Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Sparty Twp, Spencer Twp, and Tyrone Twp in Kent County. It's a district with strong GOP leanings, although the dems were high on Bruce Hawley in 08 looking for an upset. Tom Pearce was held to 59% and it opens up in 2010. This can be a darkhorse. Hawley took Tyrone Twp (which went for McCain) and Cedar Springs, and made it close in Sparta. Considering Pearce's old numbers, I don't think it was Pearce.
| St Rep 73rd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Pearce/Hawley | 31,757 | 20,624 | 1516 | 53,897 | 11133 | 58.92% | 38.27% | 20.66% |
| 06 - Pearce/Marckini | 28,636 | 14,714 | 1010 | 44,360 | 13922 | 64.55% | 33.17% | 31.38% |
| 04 - Pearce/Clowney | 35,035 | 15,277 | 1179 | 51,491 | 19758 | 68.04% | 29.67% | 38.37% |
| 02 - Hart/Clowney | 24,370 | 9,845 | 628 | 34,843 | 14525 | 69.94% | 28.26% | 41.69% |
The democrats have to run the table and hope for a 2008 year with extra local strength to win.While I am concerned, we are favored to keep the seat. To make sure of that, the Republicans here need to remember the following.
1. We can't sit on our butts. That means the candidates after the primary and activists taking the race for granted. If this happens, the dems have a chance to beat the spread against them in North Allegan and Ottawa Counties. Be prepared for a fight. If the GOP outworks the dems, we win.
2. Don't ignore the North. Obama narrowly took Benzie, Mason, and Oceana Counties. He won Manistee and Lake County with about 55%. McCain underperformed in Newaygo and Wexford counties with weak wins there. Those are low voting counties, but important. If the dems win those areas they won by big margins, it gets interesting. Combined, the North Counties are slightly over 25% of the vote.
3. Stop the bleeding in Muskegon County. Obama got over 63% here and won by almost 25,000 votes. Kerry won it by under 9,000. With a 8,000 spread, this district is not competitive. With 25,000 spread, it is, as McCain's Ottawa spread was 33,000. On a similar note to keep MI-03 (and part of MI-02), stop the bleeding in Kent county as well. McCain lost Alpine Township. That's bad. That's real bad.Muskegon County is about 25% of the vote. That puts the Obama voting portion to be about 1/2 the district.
4. Remember the base. Ottawa and Northern Allegan county. That provided the spread for McCain in the district. Worst case scenario is a big Muskegon turnout and a weak Ottawa County turnout. Ottawa County is about 40% of the vote.
This will be one to watch. I always think the GOP needs to be prepared for fights in all districts whether there will be one or not. There are two or three names I can see giving the GOP a headache here, and we have the big primary with Huizenga, Riemersma, Kuipers, and Cooper that can be real good or real bad. I think it's ours to lose, but we can't let this happen.
