I've been caught up in a few things, so I haven't been able to update.
1. The Mackinac Conference.
It was a good event, as it usually is. Pundits and Pollsters as always is my favorite panel. I was at the Rick Perry speech there. It went well. He needs to work on his debating skills in a big way as it hurt him a bit, but the stump speech was a good introduction to Michiganders. I think Perry has a good shot if he keeps the message to Texas vs most of the rest of the country in economics. That's his strength. 2012 election is about jobs.
Romney's biggest strength is campaign organization. He won the Mackinac Straw Poll largely because of that. He had the largest campaign presence on the island by far. It's not a surprise. Romney's organization is strong in 2008 as well.
The senate race is interesting. All the campaigns had some presence there, but some are more organized than others. I'm still undecided here. My vote will go to who I think has the best chance against Stabenow.
Pete Hoekstra had a speech and worked hard to get people there. What was interested about the people there is that many of them were on opposite sides in previous races, either with candidates or consultants. I was asked about five different times to show up there, and that is despite being a well known Mike Cox supporter from the gubernatorial election.
I had a brief chance to talk to Hoekstra about my two major concerns. One was TARP. He voted for it the 2nd time. He said that he made his decision based on local bankers in his district calling him up and telling him that he's seen nothing like that before and that something needed to be done. In hindsight, it may or may not have been the right decision, but we don't know what would have happened without the bailout. I don't agree with him there, but respect his answer. The other issue I had was comments about sales tax as a gubernatorial candidate. The timing of it aligned with the self proclaimed "Business leaders for Michigan" push to expand taxes to services. Another person later on said Hoekstra didn't support that plan, but supported Fairtax. I asked Hoekstra about the comments, and he said he supported the Fairtax on the state level. He has long supported it as a congressman at the federal level.
Clark Durant isn't well known, but he has spoken at a Livingston County GOP event several years back when Andy Anuzis was the chair. He's done a lot of work with charter schools and knows how to raise money. I'm interesting to see if he catches fire.
Gary Glenn is the head of Michigan's chapter of the American Family Association. If you haven't heard of him, you will. He's heavily involved in issues opposing gay marriage.
Peter Konetchy and Chuck Marino are both businessmen. I saw some campaign materials for both of them at Mackinac.
I'm undecided in who I support, except that it's going to be Stabenow's opponent.
Also, I found at Mackinac that incumbent and recent presidential candidate Thad McCotter will have a primary challenger if he runs for re-election, and it's going to be a serious one. State Senator Mike Kowall is taking him on and has a lot of prominent support in his county. MI-11 is more Oakland based than it was, so it could be interesting. McCotter is still very strong in Livonia. Kowall is strong in the Highland/White Lake area.
Away from Mackinac, the big news in 2012 is that Sarah Palin is not running. I'm not surprised at this. I think Palin lost any chance she had to win when she resigned as Alaska Governor. I think what she does best is rally the base on the speaker's circuit. I think she has a long career with her PAC and will be around for a long time.
Lastly, keep an eye on the Fast and Furious and Eric Holder. That scandal is picking up some legs. If this is true to any degree, some heads need to roll. That's another reason why the BATF needs to be disbanded. As far as Holder goes, he was Reno's top assistant during the Clinton years. He was bad news even back then.
Showing posts with label Pete Hoekstra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pete Hoekstra. Show all posts
Thursday, October 06, 2011
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Senate update - Hoekstra is now in
Pete Hoekstra has announced for the US Senate seat. Originally, he said he wasn't running, and then he changed his mind. I have some concerns about this.
Six years ago, we had a US Senate primary. At the time, the race was between Jerry Zandstra and Keith Butler. Zandstra in the end wasn't on the ballot. Bouchard, the eventual nominee jumped in relatively late. The word I heard was that Bouchard was promised a lot of support from NRSC and ended up getting almost nothing. Bouchard also had his eye more on the gubernatorial race, and unfortunately to me seemed like a candidate who was talked into running. His 20 pt loss not only hurt his senate race, but also his run for governor.
Is Pete Hoekstra running because he really wants the job, or is he running because he's taking one for the team? If he's taking one for the team, he needs to drop out because it will be a repeat of 06. If he really wants the job and is willing to do what needs to be done, like he did in the primary against the "unbeatable" Guy Vander Jaght, he can win. Stabenow is beatable, but she knows how to campaign. Any candidate will need to be prepared. She always runs pretending to be a populist while being a yes(wo)man voting for whatever Harry Reid wants.
Hoekstra has some advantages and disadvantages. He's the establishment pick for the senate race. He was also supported by most of the establishment for governor in 2010. Hoesktra had some votes and comments that hurt him, mostly regarding the 2nd bailout vote in 2008 (also supported by Stabenow), and a comment in the gubernatorial race about taxes on services. I was told by one Hoekstra supporter that the reason for that is that he supports the fairtax. I'm not quite sold on it 100%, but depending on its form it is something I would consider supporting on the federal level if it eliminates FICA and the self employment tax.
On social issues, there's little worry with Hoekstra. He's pro-life. He's been near perfect on 2nd Amendment votes for about 15 years. He's learned about that issue during his time in congress. I don't think he'll mess up there.
Other candidates listed at politics1 as running are businessmen Chad Dewey and Peter Konetchy, American Family Association's Gary Glenn, tea party activist Rick Wilson, and pastor and former prosecutor/juvenile court judge Randy Hekman. I think Dr Rob Steele is also running.
If I was in Hoekstra's shoes, I wouldn't count on the support of the establishment as meaning that I've won the primary. This is the age of the internet. This is the age of many establishment supported candidates going down in the 2010 primaries. They got arrogant and elitist or listened to arrogant and elitist consultants. They lost. Hoekstra, and all of the other candidates for that matter, need to work their butts off in the primary. They need to visit the voters and the conservative base, and hit the doors.
I'm undecided right now, except that I'd support the winner of this primary against Stabenow. None of the folks here are in Rick Snyder, Bill Milliken, or Joe Schwarz territory. I'm looking for work ethic, organization, non politispeak language, and the best chance to beat Stabenow. That's who will get my primary vote in 2010 senate race.
Lastly, whoever the nominee is needs support and to not be abandoned like Bouchard was. The NRSC was a joke. It's better than it was in 06 under Dole, but it's still an organization where I wouldn't give one red cent even if I had money.
Six years ago, we had a US Senate primary. At the time, the race was between Jerry Zandstra and Keith Butler. Zandstra in the end wasn't on the ballot. Bouchard, the eventual nominee jumped in relatively late. The word I heard was that Bouchard was promised a lot of support from NRSC and ended up getting almost nothing. Bouchard also had his eye more on the gubernatorial race, and unfortunately to me seemed like a candidate who was talked into running. His 20 pt loss not only hurt his senate race, but also his run for governor.
Is Pete Hoekstra running because he really wants the job, or is he running because he's taking one for the team? If he's taking one for the team, he needs to drop out because it will be a repeat of 06. If he really wants the job and is willing to do what needs to be done, like he did in the primary against the "unbeatable" Guy Vander Jaght, he can win. Stabenow is beatable, but she knows how to campaign. Any candidate will need to be prepared. She always runs pretending to be a populist while being a yes(wo)man voting for whatever Harry Reid wants.
Hoekstra has some advantages and disadvantages. He's the establishment pick for the senate race. He was also supported by most of the establishment for governor in 2010. Hoesktra had some votes and comments that hurt him, mostly regarding the 2nd bailout vote in 2008 (also supported by Stabenow), and a comment in the gubernatorial race about taxes on services. I was told by one Hoekstra supporter that the reason for that is that he supports the fairtax. I'm not quite sold on it 100%, but depending on its form it is something I would consider supporting on the federal level if it eliminates FICA and the self employment tax.
On social issues, there's little worry with Hoekstra. He's pro-life. He's been near perfect on 2nd Amendment votes for about 15 years. He's learned about that issue during his time in congress. I don't think he'll mess up there.
Other candidates listed at politics1 as running are businessmen Chad Dewey and Peter Konetchy, American Family Association's Gary Glenn, tea party activist Rick Wilson, and pastor and former prosecutor/juvenile court judge Randy Hekman. I think Dr Rob Steele is also running.
If I was in Hoekstra's shoes, I wouldn't count on the support of the establishment as meaning that I've won the primary. This is the age of the internet. This is the age of many establishment supported candidates going down in the 2010 primaries. They got arrogant and elitist or listened to arrogant and elitist consultants. They lost. Hoekstra, and all of the other candidates for that matter, need to work their butts off in the primary. They need to visit the voters and the conservative base, and hit the doors.
I'm undecided right now, except that I'd support the winner of this primary against Stabenow. None of the folks here are in Rick Snyder, Bill Milliken, or Joe Schwarz territory. I'm looking for work ethic, organization, non politispeak language, and the best chance to beat Stabenow. That's who will get my primary vote in 2010 senate race.
Lastly, whoever the nominee is needs support and to not be abandoned like Bouchard was. The NRSC was a joke. It's better than it was in 06 under Dole, but it's still an organization where I wouldn't give one red cent even if I had money.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Pete Hoekstra repeats his support for a tax increase
With the primary coming up, it helps to bring this back from the archives. Hoekstra came out for his tax increase around March 20th.
From the Observor and Eccentric in Royal Oak
This isn't a secret. It's downplayed, but no secret, and it is probably a good reason that Hoekstra didn't get the Michigan Chamber endorsement. It's also a big reason why I'm supporting Mike Cox as the best alternative to the beltwayitis of Hoekstra.
I don't like the small business or personal property tax, but this small business owner is KILLED with a services tax. Absolutely killed. Reduce the business taxes, yes, but don't KILL the services industry with a tax increase. Cut the damn spending.
I stand by what I wrote the 20th.
As I posted on March 20th:
This one pisses me off. It's personal.
From the Observor and Eccentric in Royal Oak
The 57-year-old congressman from Holland told members of the Royal Oak Chamber of Commerce Wednesday that increased sales taxes would “totally eliminate some other taxes.” Specifically, he mentioned the small business and personal property taxes, both of which he said are hurting businesses in the state.
“My preference is to spread the sales tax over a broader base and to raise the rate,” Hoekstra said in response to a question. “There is no perfect tax system.”
Currently the state’s 6 percent sales tax does not apply to groceries and medication.
This isn't a secret. It's downplayed, but no secret, and it is probably a good reason that Hoekstra didn't get the Michigan Chamber endorsement. It's also a big reason why I'm supporting Mike Cox as the best alternative to the beltwayitis of Hoekstra.
I don't like the small business or personal property tax, but this small business owner is KILLED with a services tax. Absolutely killed. Reduce the business taxes, yes, but don't KILL the services industry with a tax increase. Cut the damn spending.
I stand by what I wrote the 20th.
As I posted on March 20th:
We all know Andy Dillon supports higher taxes, but I'm a little disappointed in Hoekstra. He was until this my second choice for governor, and one where I wouldn't have to hold my nose in supporting outside of that one bailout vote that left me a bit sour. Well, now the bailout vote isn't the only thing that has me sour.
From the Detroit News
Beverly Hills -- Two early poll leaders in the Michigan governor's race -- Democrat Andy Dillon and Republican Pete Hoekstra -- found more common ground than differences Friday in a rare joint appearance at Detroit Country Day School.
They agreed term limits block political relationships in Lansing; it takes too long for businesses to get regulatory permits; right-to-work legislation would be too divisive; and the state needs to retool its tax system, including extending the sales tax to services.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100320/POLITICS02/3200331/1409/rss36#ixzz0ik1tJarD
Extending the sales tax to services is a tax increase. We pay more for goods. More money goes to government which has proven itself unable to live within its means. Just as Pete Hoekstra voted to bailout the banks which fubared, he now wants to bail out government by taxing others like a democrat.
There's more:Hoekstra said Michigan has a "crazy" business climate that drives investors to other states. He called for elimination of the Michigan Business Tax, as well as the levies businesses pay on equipment, and lowering the state income tax and the property tax on second homes to spur more out-of-state people to buy here. He favors initially ratcheting down the sales tax and extending it to services, but then going to voters to ask for a sales tax boost to offset reductions in other taxes
It's easy to be against the MBT. It was a poorly thought out rush job of a replacement to the bad Single Business Tax. (Thanks to Joe Hune for opposing that piece of crap). I oppose that too, but we have a spending problem more than a revenue problem, and punishing the types of businesses that may be growing is a piss poor way to spur growth. I'm fairly certain though that Pete Hoekstra's plan is a duplicate of self proclaimed "Business Leaders for Michigan" and Granholm's plan of a measly 1/2 cent cut on sales tax only to tax services at that race. It's a tax increase. Period, and needs to be opposed 100%. It was wrong when Granholm wanted a two penny tax. It's worse with BLFM's 5.5 cent per dollar tax increase.It was fiscal liberalism from Republicans that cost us both the state house and congress in 2006. We don't need more of the same. Pete Hoekstra unfortunately seems to have caught beltwayitis and is bringing it here. No thanks Pete, and I expected better from you.
This one pisses me off. It's personal.
Friday, June 04, 2010
Mike Rogers endorses Pete Hoekstra
I'm not surprised by this outside of the fact that Mike doesn't often make his primary choices publicly known. Mike Rogers and Hoekstra work together in Congress and both have been on the intelligence committee. This endorsement is noteworthy because it takes a lot for him to endorse in primaries. I don't want to put words in Mike's mouth since he's capable of speaking on his own, but I suspect that a lot of this has to do with foreign policy, even more so than he says in the press release. Foreign policy is personal to Rogers, and he does a great job there. Hoekstra is good on foreign policy issues too.
But I'm not voting for congressman or senator. I'm voting for governor of Michigan. Domestic issues are king, and while I could count on Mike Rogers or Bill Rogers in not voting to support the Granholm services tax, Pete Hoekstra came out with Democrat Andy Dillon in support of that in a debate at Country Day High School. Mike Rogers voted against the bailout. Pete Hoekstra did the first time, but when the going got tough with the pressure by McCain, Bush, Obama, Paulson, and company, he caved. Mike didn't. I like you Mike, but I have to respectfully disagree with this endorsement.
Mike Cox has my vote. He'll take a stand, even when it isn't popular. He kept his campaign promises to gun owners and even exceeded them. He made cuts in his department and lived the fiscal conservatism he preached. He stood up for Civil Rights against racial preferences when it wasn't popular. He'll also fight back, something republicans don't do enough of these days. When the democrats attack in their campaign ads, and they will, Mike Cox won't be like most Republican politicians and sit there and take. He's fight back on their level, and that is what it will take to win. No Republican has done that effectively since John Engler.
But I'm not voting for congressman or senator. I'm voting for governor of Michigan. Domestic issues are king, and while I could count on Mike Rogers or Bill Rogers in not voting to support the Granholm services tax, Pete Hoekstra came out with Democrat Andy Dillon in support of that in a debate at Country Day High School. Mike Rogers voted against the bailout. Pete Hoekstra did the first time, but when the going got tough with the pressure by McCain, Bush, Obama, Paulson, and company, he caved. Mike didn't. I like you Mike, but I have to respectfully disagree with this endorsement.
Mike Cox has my vote. He'll take a stand, even when it isn't popular. He kept his campaign promises to gun owners and even exceeded them. He made cuts in his department and lived the fiscal conservatism he preached. He stood up for Civil Rights against racial preferences when it wasn't popular. He'll also fight back, something republicans don't do enough of these days. When the democrats attack in their campaign ads, and they will, Mike Cox won't be like most Republican politicians and sit there and take. He's fight back on their level, and that is what it will take to win. No Republican has done that effectively since John Engler.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Granholm pushes for a new tax increase
The Matt Millen of Governors is at it again with her push for tax increases. From the Detroit News.
This ain't new. Granholm pushed this in 2009
This is a big threat to occur however. It's not just Granholm pushing this. Pete Hoekstra has signed on board with this. Self proclaimed Business Leaders for Michigan is on board.
I don't see solutions, only gimmicks and demands that people bail out the government for their fiscal mismanagement. The problem is jobs. The sales tax revenues are down because people are spending less.
ansing -- Gov. Jennifer Granholm defended her proposal to extend the sales tax to services on a cable TV news show this morning, saying Michigan "has to invest in education" to convert from a manufacturing to a knowledge-based economy.
The governor said on MSNBC that Michigan has "a big, hairy audacious goal of doubling our number of college graduates." In order to do that, she said the state has to stop cutting education spending, which it did this year by $165 per student.
Since public school aid is funded primarily with sales taxes, the state needs to update and stabilize its sales levy by expanding it to include most services, Granholm said. In the past century, about 60 percent of consumer purchases were made on goods and today about two-thirds is spent on services, she said.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100329/POLITICS02/3290392/1022/Granholm--Sales-tax-on-services-needed-to-bolster-education#ixzz0jaR7wdmG
This ain't new. Granholm pushed this in 2009
This is a big threat to occur however. It's not just Granholm pushing this. Pete Hoekstra has signed on board with this. Self proclaimed Business Leaders for Michigan is on board.
I don't see solutions, only gimmicks and demands that people bail out the government for their fiscal mismanagement. The problem is jobs. The sales tax revenues are down because people are spending less.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Pete Hoekstra supports a tax increase
We all know Andy Dillon supports higher taxes, but I'm a little disappointed in Hoekstra. He was until this my second choice for governor, and one where I wouldn't have to hold my nose in supporting outside of that one bailout vote that left me a bit sour. Well, now the bailout vote isn't the only thing that has me sour.
From the Detroit News
From the Detroit News
Beverly Hills -- Two early poll leaders in the Michigan governor's race -- Democrat Andy Dillon and Republican Pete Hoekstra -- found more common ground than differences Friday in a rare joint appearance at Detroit Country Day School.
They agreed term limits block political relationships in Lansing; it takes too long for businesses to get regulatory permits; right-to-work legislation would be too divisive; and the state needs to retool its tax system, including extending the sales tax to services.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100320/POLITICS02/3200331/1409/rss36#ixzz0ik1tJarD
Extending the sales tax to services is a tax increase. We pay more for goods. More money goes to government which has proven itself unable to live within its means. Just as Pete Hoekstra voted to bailout the banks which fubared, he now wants to bail out government by taxing others like a democrat.
There's more:
Hoekstra said Michigan has a "crazy" business climate that drives investors to other states. He called for elimination of the Michigan Business Tax, as well as the levies businesses pay on equipment, and lowering the state income tax and the property tax on second homes to spur more out-of-state people to buy here. He favors initially ratcheting down the sales tax and extending it to services, but then going to voters to ask for a sales tax boost to offset reductions in other taxes
It's easy to be against the MBT. It was a poorly thought out rush job of a replacement to the bad Single Business Tax. (Thanks to Joe Hune for opposing that piece of crap). I oppose that too, but we have a spending problem more than a revenue problem, and punishing the types of businesses that may be growing is a piss poor way to spur growth. I'm fairly certain though that Pete Hoekstra's plan is a duplicate of self proclaimed "Business Leaders for Michigan" and Granholm's plan of a measly 1/2 cent cut on sales tax only to tax services at that race. It's a tax increase. Period, and needs to be opposed 100%. It was wrong when Granholm wanted a two penny tax. It's worse with BLFM's 5.5 cent per dollar tax increase.
It was fiscal liberalism from Republicans that cost us both the state house and congress in 2006. We don't need more of the same. Pete Hoekstra unfortunately seems to have caught beltwayitis and is bringing it here. No thanks Pete, and I expected better from you.
Friday, January 01, 2010
Congressional District 2 (MI-02) - Updated
Updated 5-18-2010 - Listed the candidates that passed the filing deadline.
Updated 8-4-2010 - Primary results
The 2nd Congressional District (MI-02) is opening up for the first time in decades.
Michigan's 2nd District - Congress
Incumbent - Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland) - Not running for re-election - running for Governor.
Candidates:
GOP - Bill Huizenga
Dems - Fred Johnson
Years in office as of 2010 election - 18.
Cook District Numbers - R+7
Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 51%
Obama - 48%
2004:
Bush – 60%
Kerry – 39%
2000:
Bush 59%
Gore 39%
The 2nd District runs along the Lake Michigan coast. It is anchored by two major cities, Holland and Muskegon. It contains Benzie, Lake, Manistee, Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Ottawa, and Wexford Counties. It also contains the townships of Alpine, Solon, Sparta, and Tyrone in Kent County, and contains Fillmore, Heath, Laketown, Manlius, Monterey, Overisel, Salem, and Saugatuck Townships, part of Dorr Township, and the cities of Douglas, Fennville Holland, and Saugatuck in Allegan County.
This is historically the most Republican district in Michigan, and in MOST years, solidly republican. The question now is whether the MAJOR blue shift in West Michigan is due to the last three years of Bush and Obama's candidacy, or is it a real allignment in the West side of the state. I don't know. We'll find out more this year. I do have my concerns.
Pete Hoekstra always ran strong here, well ahead of the ticket, even when the GOP had a big year. His worst general election numbers outside of 1992 (63%) were in 2008, and that was still 62%.His best was in 1994 (75%) followed by 2002 which is the current district (70%). The bad news. Hoekstra's not running this year.
I'll be honest. I'm concerned about this district. I think whoever wins the GOP primary needs to be ready for a fight. There are several reasons.
1. The GOP margins in the Dutch areas are dipping.
2. The Lakeshore has a Chicago influence. Advantage Obama. A lot of vacation homes are on the coast, and many of them are from transplants. The GOP numbers by percentage shrunk statewide including the east side, but the west side plummeted much more than the east side. 5-6% drops on the East Side, and often 10% out west.
3. The economy. Always an issue.
4. Muskegon. Muskegon is heavily blue and getting bluer.
5. Several Bush counties went for Obama.
I'll start with Hoekstra's 2004 and then 2008 election numbers. Hoesktra won every county outside of Muskegon in 2008. I'm not that concerned on Muskegon. It's democrat. Here's 2004.
This was one of his better showings. Overall - he won everywhere except the following areas. Gilmore Twp in Benzie County. It's a small and very democrat area. Webber and Yates Twps in Lake County. Also democrat strongholds. Muskegon and Muskegon Heights in Muskegon County. Merrill Twp in Newaygo County. That's it. That's pretty good, and why he won with 69% in 2004. 2008 is slightly different, but still good compared to McCain. It's still ahead of Bush's numbers in this district. I think part of the drop is also the banks bailout. Look at the 3rd party number increases as well.
Obama is part of the difference here with Muskegon County, as well as Douglas and Saugatuck in Allegan County. In the former, there is a large minority population. In the latter, the arts and gays crowd. Hoekstra still did well and won most places. He only lost Gilmore and Platte Twps in Benzie County. Platte Twp went for Bush in 04. In Lake County, Pleasant Plains, Webber, and Yates went for Johnson. Those are dem strongholds. Hoekstra still swept Manistee and Mason counties, which went for Obama. Muskegon was rougher. Hoekstra lost the county, which is a stronghold for the democrats. Egelston Twp and Muskegon Twp flipped. The cities of Muskegon and Muskegon Heights stayed blue. That's all that was needed to flip the county. Merrill Twp also stayed blue. The rest did not change, but I think the Hoekstra numbers masks the 04 to 08 change here.
Here's Bush's 04 numbers.
Those are pretty good numbers. Manistee County went for Gore 00 and flipped. The rest of the blue zones in 2000 (Lake, Muskegon) were blue in 2004 on a countywide basis. In 04, the blue areas were as follows.
Benzie County - City of Frankfort and Gilmore Twp.
Lake County - Eden Twp, Newkirk Twp, Pleasant Plains Twp, Webber Twp, and Yates Twp.
Manistee County - Dickson Twp, Filer Twp, City of Manistee, Manistee Twp, Norman Twp, Springdale Twp, and Stronach Twp
Mason County - Free Soil Twp, Grant Twp, and Sheridan Twp
Muskegon County - Cedar Creek Twp, Dalton Twp, Egelston Twp, City of Montague, City of Muskegon (by 6134), City of Muskegon Heights (by 3600), Muskegon Twp, City of Roosevelt Park, Sullivan Twp, and the City of Whitehall.
Newaygo County - Big Prarie Twp, Denver Twp, Lilley Twp, Merrill Twp, and Troy Twp
Oceana County - Colfax Twp, Crystal Twp, Ferry Twp, Leavitt Twp, Newfield Twp, and Otto Twp.
2008 was a different story. It was a 3pt "win" for the GOP, which I consider about a 10pt loss.
This is why I'm keeping an eye on this seat for 2010. While it's ours to lose, it's too close to comfort for an open seat without Pete Hoekstra running. Instead of blue zones as in 2004, counties were blue. Even Ottawa County had blue zones. The City of Grand Haven went blue, as did of all places, Ottawa's portion of Holland.
Breaking it down further. Comparing 2004 and 2008.
2004:
Ottawa County - Bush 71.55%, Kerry 27.64% - 128,643 votes. 56,496 vote spread.
North County Portion - Bush 55.39%, 43.27% - 92,897 votes. 11,262 vote spread.
Allegan County Portion - Bush 69.69%, Kerry 29.43%, 20,112 votes. 8097 vote spread.
Kent County portion - Bush 61.69%, Kerry 37.20% - 14,536 votes. - 3559 vote spread
Muskegon County - Kerry 55.23%, Bush 44.03% - 80,178 votes. -8980 vote spread
Total - Bush 59.99%, Kerry 39.05% - 336,366 votes. 70,434 vote spread
Obama needed to make up 70,434 votes to take the district. He made up almost 60,000.
2008:
Ottawa County - McCain 61.15%, Obama 37.30% -136,269 votes, 32502 vote spread (cut by 24,000 votes)
North County Portion - Obama 50.45%, McCain 47.70% - 95,139 votes. -2617 vote spread (flip of almost 14,000 votes)
Allegan County Portion - McCain 60.75%, Obama 37.62% - 21037 votes, 4867 vote spread. (cut by about 3200)
Kent County Portion - McCain 52.23%, Obama 45.91% - 14,682 votes, 928 vote spread. (cut by about 2600)
Muskegon County - Obama 63.87%, McCain 34.58% - 84,271 votes. -24678 votes. (Increased by about 15000)
Now do you see the concern here with an open seat. The big base is Ottawa County, still the most Republican County in the state. Three of the candidates are from Ottawa County (Huizenga, Kuipers, and Riemersma). Bill Cooper is from Fruitport in Muskegon County. The three from Ottawa County all have strong name recognition (not sure about Cooper one way or the other). Kuipers is a State Senator. Huizenga was a state rep until 2008. Riemersma has never held elected office, but played TE for the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Michigan Wolverines. Most football fans know who he is. The only democrat announced if Fred Johnson.
It'll be interesting who gets past the primary, and who runs for the democrats. Fred Johnson doesn't scare me. Julie Dennis doesn't scare me. She lost a district she should have won. Mary Valentine is running for state senate instead, and will be a formidable candidate there. Here's some of the farm club for the future.
State Senate 35 - Covers Benzie, Clare, Kalkaska, Lake, Leelanau, Manistee, Mecosta, Missaukee, Osceola, Roscommon, and Wexford Counties. Benzie, Lake, Manistee, and Wexford counties are in the district. Michelle McManus, from Leelanau County, is termed out as State Senator, and running for Secretary of State. This is an open seat.
St. Senate 34th - Covers Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties. This is also an open seat and the dems think they have a very good shot at this. Obama won three of the counties, and Muskegon is a base county. Gerald Van Woerkom is termed out and won two close races here by narrowing his losses in Muskegon and running well in the outcounties.
St Senate 30th - Covers Ottawa County, and in Kent County the City of Grandville, Sparta Township. All except Grandville is in the 2nd district. Wayne Kuipers is termed out and running for Hoekstra's seat.
St Senate 28th - Covers Ada Twp, Algoma Twp, Alpine Twp, Bowne Twp, Byron Twp, Caledonia Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, Gaines Twp, Grand Rapids twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Spencer Twp, Tyrone Twp, City of Walker, and City of Wyoming. Alpine Twp, part of Solon Twp, and Tyrone Twp is in the district.
State Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Allegan is in the 2nd district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.
State Rep 102nd - Covers Mecosta, Osceola, and Wexford Counties. Wexford is in the 2nd district.
State Rep 101st - Covers Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee, and Mason counties. This seat flipped in 2008 after Republican David Palsok was termed out. there was a tough primary fight, and Dan Scripps, the democrat worked his ass off in this district. He was aided by Obama winning this district, but a lot of this I think he did on his own. He's probably the opponent I'd least like to see run for the 2nd, or for the McManus State Senate seat. Scripps won Leelanau County in 2006 against Palsrok and won all counties in 2008.
St Rep 100 - Covers Lake, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties. This district leans Republican and is opened up with Goeff Hansen term limited. Lake county is democrat, and Oceana is competitive. Newaygo is still strongly Republican and is the most populated part of the district.
St Rep 92 - Covers Fruitland Twp, Laketon Twp, the City of Muskegon, the City of Muskegon Heights, Muskegon Twp, and the city of North Muskegon. It is the most democrat part of Muskegon County and the 2nd district. It is an open seat with Doug Bennett termed out.
St Rep 91 - Covers Blue Lake Twp, Casnovia Twp, Cedar Creek Twp, Dalton Twp, Egelston Twp, Fruitport Twp, Holton Twp, City of Montague, Montague Twp, Moorland Twp, City of Norton Shores, Raveena Twp, City of Roosevelt Park, Sullivan Twp, White River Twp, Whitehall Twp, the City of Whitehall in Muskegon County, and Chester Twp in Ottawa County. It is a competitive district that has gone for David Farhat for the GOP and Mary Valentine for the Dems. It is opening up as Valentine is running for State Senate.
St Rep 90 - Covers Blendon Twp, City of Holland, Holland Twp, City of Hudsonville, Jamestown Twp, City of Zeeland, and Zeeland Twp in Ottawa County. This is one of the most republican districts in the country with Jamestown Twp, Zeeland and Hudsonville. Holland usually is solid GOP, although Obama won the Ottawa portion.
St Rep 88 - Most of Allegan County (and all of Allegan in the 2nd)
St Rep 74 -Covers Alpine Twp and the City of Grandville in Kent County and the City of Coopersville, Crokckery Twp, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallmadge Twp, and Wright Twp in Ottawa County. All except Grandville is in the 2nd District.
St Rep 73 - Covers Algoma Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Sparty Twp, Spencer Twp, and Tyrone Twp in Kent County. It's a district with strong GOP leanings, although the dems were high on Bruce Hawley in 08 looking for an upset. Tom Pearce was held to 59% and it opens up in 2010. This can be a darkhorse. Hawley took Tyrone Twp (which went for McCain) and Cedar Springs, and made it close in Sparta. Considering Pearce's old numbers, I don't think it was Pearce.
The democrats have to run the table and hope for a 2008 year with extra local strength to win.While I am concerned, we are favored to keep the seat. To make sure of that, the Republicans here need to remember the following.
1. We can't sit on our butts. That means the candidates after the primary and activists taking the race for granted. If this happens, the dems have a chance to beat the spread against them in North Allegan and Ottawa Counties. Be prepared for a fight. If the GOP outworks the dems, we win.
2. Don't ignore the North. Obama narrowly took Benzie, Mason, and Oceana Counties. He won Manistee and Lake County with about 55%. McCain underperformed in Newaygo and Wexford counties with weak wins there. Those are low voting counties, but important. If the dems win those areas they won by big margins, it gets interesting. Combined, the North Counties are slightly over 25% of the vote.
3. Stop the bleeding in Muskegon County. Obama got over 63% here and won by almost 25,000 votes. Kerry won it by under 9,000. With a 8,000 spread, this district is not competitive. With 25,000 spread, it is, as McCain's Ottawa spread was 33,000. On a similar note to keep MI-03 (and part of MI-02), stop the bleeding in Kent county as well. McCain lost Alpine Township. That's bad. That's real bad.Muskegon County is about 25% of the vote. That puts the Obama voting portion to be about 1/2 the district.
4. Remember the base. Ottawa and Northern Allegan county. That provided the spread for McCain in the district. Worst case scenario is a big Muskegon turnout and a weak Ottawa County turnout. Ottawa County is about 40% of the vote.
This will be one to watch. I always think the GOP needs to be prepared for fights in all districts whether there will be one or not. There are two or three names I can see giving the GOP a headache here, and we have the big primary with Huizenga, Riemersma, Kuipers, and Cooper that can be real good or real bad. I think it's ours to lose, but we can't let this happen.
Updated 8-4-2010 - Primary results
The 2nd Congressional District (MI-02) is opening up for the first time in decades.
Michigan's 2nd District - Congress
Incumbent - Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland) - Not running for re-election - running for Governor.
Candidates:
GOP - Bill Huizenga
Dems - Fred Johnson
Years in office as of 2010 election - 18.
Cook District Numbers - R+7
Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 51%
Obama - 48%
2004:
Bush – 60%
Kerry – 39%
2000:
Bush 59%
Gore 39%
The 2nd District runs along the Lake Michigan coast. It is anchored by two major cities, Holland and Muskegon. It contains Benzie, Lake, Manistee, Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Ottawa, and Wexford Counties. It also contains the townships of Alpine, Solon, Sparta, and Tyrone in Kent County, and contains Fillmore, Heath, Laketown, Manlius, Monterey, Overisel, Salem, and Saugatuck Townships, part of Dorr Township, and the cities of Douglas, Fennville Holland, and Saugatuck in Allegan County.
This is historically the most Republican district in Michigan, and in MOST years, solidly republican. The question now is whether the MAJOR blue shift in West Michigan is due to the last three years of Bush and Obama's candidacy, or is it a real allignment in the West side of the state. I don't know. We'll find out more this year. I do have my concerns.
Pete Hoekstra always ran strong here, well ahead of the ticket, even when the GOP had a big year. His worst general election numbers outside of 1992 (63%) were in 2008, and that was still 62%.His best was in 1994 (75%) followed by 2002 which is the current district (70%). The bad news. Hoekstra's not running this year.
I'll be honest. I'm concerned about this district. I think whoever wins the GOP primary needs to be ready for a fight. There are several reasons.
1. The GOP margins in the Dutch areas are dipping.
2. The Lakeshore has a Chicago influence. Advantage Obama. A lot of vacation homes are on the coast, and many of them are from transplants. The GOP numbers by percentage shrunk statewide including the east side, but the west side plummeted much more than the east side. 5-6% drops on the East Side, and often 10% out west.
3. The economy. Always an issue.
4. Muskegon. Muskegon is heavily blue and getting bluer.
5. Several Bush counties went for Obama.
I'll start with Hoekstra's 2004 and then 2008 election numbers. Hoesktra won every county outside of Muskegon in 2008. I'm not that concerned on Muskegon. It's democrat. Here's 2004.
| 2004 Election | Hoekstra | Kotos | 3rd party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Benzie | 5,268 | 3,412 | 94 | 8,774 | 1856 | 60.04% | 38.89% | 21.15% |
| Lake | 2,879 | 2,010 | 124 | 5,013 | 869 | 57.43% | 40.10% | 17.33% |
| Manistee | 7,432 | 4,245 | 195 | 11,872 | 3187 | 62.60% | 35.76% | 26.84% |
| Mason | 9,144 | 4,780 | 192 | 14,116 | 4364 | 64.78% | 33.86% | 30.92% |
| Muskegon | 42,350 | 32,342 | 995 | 75,687 | 10008 | 55.95% | 42.73% | 13.22% |
| Newaygo | 15,050 | 6,608 | 606 | 22,264 | 8442 | 67.60% | 29.68% | 37.92% |
| Oceana | 7,579 | 3,777 | 152 | 11,508 | 3802 | 65.86% | 32.82% | 33.04% |
| Ottawa | 99,422 | 24,303 | 2152 | 125,877 | 75119 | 78.98% | 19.31% | 59.68% |
| Wexford | 10,092 | 4,163 | 315 | 14,570 | 5929 | 69.27% | 28.57% | 40.69% |
| Kent Co: | ||||||||
| Alpine Twp | 4,009 | 1,969 | 158 | 6,136 | 2040 | 65.34% | 32.09% | 33.25% |
| Solon Twp (2) | 1,230 | 454 | 49 | 1,733 | 776 | 70.98% | 26.20% | 44.78% |
| Sparta Twp | 2,853 | 1,052 | 105 | 4,010 | 1801 | 71.15% | 26.23% | 44.91% |
| Tyrone Twp | 1,464 | 503 | 39 | 2,006 | 961 | 72.98% | 25.07% | 47.91% |
| Allegan Co: | ||||||||
| Dorr Twp (1) | 474 | 130 | 16 | 620 | 344 | 76.45% | 20.97% | 55.48% |
| Dorr Twp (2) | 929 | 252 | 27 | 1,208 | 677 | 76.90% | 20.86% | 56.04% |
| City of Douglas | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| City of Fennville | 265 | 146 | 11 | 422 | 119 | 62.80% | 34.60% | 28.20% |
| Heath Twp | 1326 | 254 | 34 | 1,614 | 1072 | 82.16% | 15.74% | 66.42% |
| City of Holland | 2713 | 640 | 60 | 3,413 | 2073 | 79.49% | 18.75% | 60.74% |
| Laketown Twp | 2,949 | 664 | 52 | 3,665 | 2285 | 80.46% | 18.12% | 62.35% |
| Manlius Twp | 1,172 | 277 | 34 | 1,483 | 895 | 79.03% | 18.68% | 60.35% |
| Monterey Twp | 682 | 254 | 29 | 965 | 428 | 70.67% | 26.32% | 44.35% |
| Overisel Twp | 1,420 | 96 | 18 | 1,534 | 1324 | 92.57% | 6.26% | 86.31% |
| Salem Twp | 1,498 | 341 | 37 | 1,876 | 1157 | 79.85% | 18.18% | 61.67% |
| City of Saugatuck | 383 | 303 | 16 | 702 | 80 | 54.56% | 43.16% | 11.40% |
| Saugatuck Twp | 1,303 | 909 | 46 | 2,258 | 394 | 57.71% | 40.26% | 17.45% |
| Total | 223,886 | 93,884 | 5556 | 323,326 | 130002 | 69.24% | 29.04% | 40.21% |
This was one of his better showings. Overall - he won everywhere except the following areas. Gilmore Twp in Benzie County. It's a small and very democrat area. Webber and Yates Twps in Lake County. Also democrat strongholds. Muskegon and Muskegon Heights in Muskegon County. Merrill Twp in Newaygo County. That's it. That's pretty good, and why he won with 69% in 2004. 2008 is slightly different, but still good compared to McCain. It's still ahead of Bush's numbers in this district. I think part of the drop is also the banks bailout. Look at the 3rd party number increases as well.
| 2008 Election | Hoekstra | Johnson | 3rd party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Benzie | 5,503 | 4,052 | 301 | 9,856 | 1451 | 55.83% | 41.11% | 14.72% |
| Lake | 2,745 | 2,217 | 163 | 5,125 | 528 | 53.56% | 43.26% | 10.30% |
| Manistee | 7,287 | 4,999 | 413 | 12,699 | 2288 | 57.38% | 39.37% | 18.02% |
| Mason | 9,295 | 5,149 | 345 | 14,789 | 4146 | 62.85% | 34.82% | 28.03% |
| Muskegon | 38,098 | 41,426 | 2033 | 81,557 | -3328 | 46.71% | 50.79% | -4.08% |
| Newaygo | 13,884 | 7,499 | 1091 | 22,474 | 6385 | 61.78% | 33.37% | 28.41% |
| Oceana | 7,511 | 4,313 | 383 | 12,207 | 3198 | 61.53% | 35.33% | 26.20% |
| Ottawa | 95,600 | 34,344 | 3291 | 133,235 | 61256 | 71.75% | 25.78% | 45.98% |
| Wexford | 9,588 | 4,899 | 671 | 15,158 | 4689 | 63.25% | 32.32% | 30.93% |
| Kent Co: | ||||||||
| Alpine Twp | 3,620 | 2,352 | 197 | 6,169 | 1268 | 58.68% | 38.13% | 20.55% |
| Solon Twp (2) | 1,225 | 555 | 69 | 1,849 | 670 | 66.25% | 30.02% | 36.24% |
| Sparta Twp | 2,641 | 1,237 | 135 | 4,013 | 1404 | 65.81% | 30.82% | 34.99% |
| Tyrone Twp | 1,398 | 623 | 65 | 2,086 | 775 | 67.02% | 29.87% | 37.15% |
| Allegan Co: | ||||||||
| Dorr Twp (1) | 455 | 164 | 16 | 635 | 291 | 71.65% | 25.83% | 45.83% |
| Dorr Twp (2) | 979 | 330 | 43 | 1,352 | 649 | 72.41% | 24.41% | 48.00% |
| City of Douglas | 322 | 373 | 17 | 712 | -51 | 45.22% | 52.39% | -7.16% |
| City of Fennville | 234 | 187 | 11 | 432 | 47 | 54.17% | 43.29% | 10.88% |
| Heath Twp | 1311 | 365 | 51 | 1,727 | 946 | 75.91% | 21.13% | 54.78% |
| City of Holland | 2448 | 986 | 40 | 3,474 | 1462 | 70.47% | 28.38% | 42.08% |
| Laketown Twp | 2,605 | 942 | 70 | 3,617 | 1663 | 72.02% | 26.04% | 45.98% |
| Manlius Twp | 1,135 | 376 | 34 | 1,545 | 759 | 73.46% | 24.34% | 49.13% |
| Monterey Twp | 680 | 305 | 45 | 1,030 | 375 | 66.02% | 29.61% | 36.41% |
| Overisel Twp | 1,421 | 164 | 42 | 1,627 | 1257 | 87.34% | 10.08% | 77.26% |
| Salem Twp | 1,638 | 412 | 73 | 2,123 | 1226 | 77.15% | 19.41% | 57.75% |
| City of Saugatuck | 300 | 308 | 14 | 622 | -8 | 48.23% | 49.52% | -1.29% |
| Saugatuck Twp | 968 | 718 | 54 | 1,740 | 250 | 55.63% | 41.26% | 14.37% |
| Total | 212,891 | 119,295 | 9667 | 341,853 | 93596 | 62.28% | 34.90% | 27.38% |
Obama is part of the difference here with Muskegon County, as well as Douglas and Saugatuck in Allegan County. In the former, there is a large minority population. In the latter, the arts and gays crowd. Hoekstra still did well and won most places. He only lost Gilmore and Platte Twps in Benzie County. Platte Twp went for Bush in 04. In Lake County, Pleasant Plains, Webber, and Yates went for Johnson. Those are dem strongholds. Hoekstra still swept Manistee and Mason counties, which went for Obama. Muskegon was rougher. Hoekstra lost the county, which is a stronghold for the democrats. Egelston Twp and Muskegon Twp flipped. The cities of Muskegon and Muskegon Heights stayed blue. That's all that was needed to flip the county. Merrill Twp also stayed blue. The rest did not change, but I think the Hoekstra numbers masks the 04 to 08 change here.
Here's Bush's 04 numbers.
| 2004 Election | Bush | Kerry | 3rd party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Benzie | 5,284 | 4,383 | 112 | 9,779 | 901 | 54.03% | 44.82% | 9.21% |
| Lake | 2,503 | 2,675 | 68 | 5,246 | -172 | 47.71% | 50.99% | -3.28% |
| Manistee | 6,295 | 6,272 | 173 | 12,740 | 23 | 49.41% | 49.23% | 0.18% |
| Mason | 8,124 | 6,333 | 345 | 14,802 | 1791 | 54.88% | 42.78% | 12.10% |
| Muskegon | 35,302 | 44,282 | 594 | 80,178 | -8980 | 44.03% | 55.23% | -11.20% |
| Newaygo | 13,608 | 9,057 | 208 | 22,873 | 4551 | 59.49% | 39.60% | 19.90% |
| Oceana | 6,677 | 5,441 | 179 | 12,297 | 1236 | 54.30% | 44.25% | 10.05% |
| Ottawa | 92,048 | 35,552 | 1043 | 128,643 | 56496 | 71.55% | 27.64% | 43.92% |
| Wexford | 8,966 | 6,034 | 160 | 15,160 | 2932 | 59.14% | 39.80% | 19.34% |
| Kent Co: | ||||||||
| Alpine Twp | 3,722 | 2,658 | 66 | 6,446 | 1064 | 57.74% | 41.23% | 16.51% |
| Solon Twp (2) | 1,175 | 608 | 14 | 1,797 | 567 | 65.39% | 33.83% | 31.55% |
| Sparta Twp | 2,686 | 1,488 | 61 | 4,235 | 1198 | 63.42% | 35.14% | 28.29% |
| Tyrone Twp | 1,384 | 654 | 20 | 2,058 | 730 | 67.25% | 31.78% | 35.47% |
| Allegan Co: | ||||||||
| Dorr Twp (1) | 446 | 185 | 7 | 638 | 261 | 69.91% | 29.00% | 40.91% |
| Dorr Twp (2) | 887 | 350 | 14 | 1,251 | 537 | 70.90% | 27.98% | 42.93% |
| City of Douglas | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| City of Fennville | 235 | 201 | 4 | 440 | 34 | 53.41% | 45.68% | 7.73% |
| Heath Twp | 1267 | 355 | 12 | 1,634 | 912 | 77.54% | 21.73% | 55.81% |
| City of Holland | 2479 | 941 | 32 | 3,452 | 1538 | 71.81% | 27.26% | 44.55% |
| Laketown Twp | 2,711 | 961 | 26 | 3,698 | 1750 | 73.31% | 25.99% | 47.32% |
| Manlius Twp | 1,091 | 412 | 12 | 1,515 | 679 | 72.01% | 27.19% | 44.82% |
| Monterey Twp | 628 | 360 | 10 | 998 | 268 | 62.93% | 36.07% | 26.85% |
| Overisel Twp | 1,389 | 163 | 4 | 1,556 | 1226 | 89.27% | 10.48% | 78.79% |
| Salem Twp | 1,450 | 457 | 11 | 1,918 | 993 | 75.60% | 23.83% | 51.77% |
| City of Saugatuck | 311 | 389 | 10 | 710 | -78 | 43.80% | 54.79% | -10.99% |
| Saugatuck Twp | 1,122 | 1,145 | 35 | 2,302 | -23 | 48.74% | 49.74% | -1.00% |
| Total | 201,790 | 131,356 | 3220 | 336,366 | 70434 | 59.99% | 39.05% | 20.94% |
Those are pretty good numbers. Manistee County went for Gore 00 and flipped. The rest of the blue zones in 2000 (Lake, Muskegon) were blue in 2004 on a countywide basis. In 04, the blue areas were as follows.
Benzie County - City of Frankfort and Gilmore Twp.
Lake County - Eden Twp, Newkirk Twp, Pleasant Plains Twp, Webber Twp, and Yates Twp.
Manistee County - Dickson Twp, Filer Twp, City of Manistee, Manistee Twp, Norman Twp, Springdale Twp, and Stronach Twp
Mason County - Free Soil Twp, Grant Twp, and Sheridan Twp
Muskegon County - Cedar Creek Twp, Dalton Twp, Egelston Twp, City of Montague, City of Muskegon (by 6134), City of Muskegon Heights (by 3600), Muskegon Twp, City of Roosevelt Park, Sullivan Twp, and the City of Whitehall.
Newaygo County - Big Prarie Twp, Denver Twp, Lilley Twp, Merrill Twp, and Troy Twp
Oceana County - Colfax Twp, Crystal Twp, Ferry Twp, Leavitt Twp, Newfield Twp, and Otto Twp.
2008 was a different story. It was a 3pt "win" for the GOP, which I consider about a 10pt loss.
| 2008 Election | McCain | Obama | 3rd party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| Benzie | 4,687 | 5,451 | 171 | 10,309 | -764 | 45.47% | 52.88% | -7.41% |
| Lake | 2,269 | 2,919 | 102 | 5,290 | -650 | 42.89% | 55.18% | -12.29% |
| Manistee | 5,510 | 7,235 | 254 | 12,999 | -1725 | 42.39% | 55.66% | -13.27% |
| Mason | 7,147 | 7,817 | 259 | 15,223 | -670 | 46.95% | 51.35% | -4.40% |
| Muskegon | 29,145 | 53,821 | 1305 | 84,271 | -24676 | 34.58% | 63.87% | -29.28% |
| Newaygo | 11,862 | 10,790 | 453 | 23,105 | 1072 | 51.34% | 46.70% | 4.64% |
| Oceana | 5,860 | 6,405 | 244 | 12,509 | -545 | 46.85% | 51.20% | -4.36% |
| Ottawa | 83,330 | 50,828 | 2110 | 136,268 | 32502 | 61.15% | 37.30% | 23.85% |
| Wexford | 8,044 | 7,379 | 281 | 15,704 | 665 | 51.22% | 46.99% | 4.23% |
| Kent Co: | ||||||||
| Alpine Twp | 3,110 | 3,229 | 113 | 6,452 | -119 | 48.20% | 50.05% | -1.84% |
| Solon Twp (2) | 1,075 | 794 | 40 | 1,909 | 281 | 56.31% | 41.59% | 14.72% |
| Sparta Twp | 2,277 | 1,814 | 91 | 4,182 | 463 | 54.45% | 43.38% | 11.07% |
| Tyrone Twp | 1,206 | 903 | 30 | 2,139 | 303 | 56.38% | 42.22% | 14.17% |
| Allegan Co: | ||||||||
| Dorr Twp (1) | 416 | 230 | 10 | 656 | 186 | 63.41% | 35.06% | 28.35% |
| Dorr Twp (2) | 902 | 469 | 28 | 1,399 | 433 | 64.47% | 33.52% | 30.95% |
| City of Douglas | 246 | 472 | 7 | 725 | -226 | 33.93% | 65.10% | -31.17% |
| City of Fennville | 163 | 279 | 6 | 448 | -116 | 36.38% | 62.28% | -25.89% |
| Heath Twp | 1204 | 506 | 38 | 1,748 | 698 | 68.88% | 28.95% | 39.93% |
| City of Holland | 2093 | 1,391 | 40 | 3,524 | 702 | 59.39% | 39.47% | 19.92% |
| Laketown Twp | 2,318 | 1,285 | 53 | 3,656 | 1033 | 63.40% | 35.15% | 28.25% |
| Manlius Twp | 991 | 569 | 20 | 1,580 | 422 | 62.72% | 36.01% | 26.71% |
| Monterey Twp | 597 | 450 | 20 | 1,067 | 147 | 55.95% | 42.17% | 13.78% |
| Overisel Twp | 1,334 | 274 | 32 | 1,640 | 1060 | 81.34% | 16.71% | 64.63% |
| Salem Twp | 1,509 | 630 | 48 | 2,187 | 879 | 69.00% | 28.81% | 40.19% |
| City of Saugatuck | 229 | 396 | 13 | 638 | -167 | 35.89% | 62.07% | -26.18% |
| Saugatuck Twp | 779 | 963 | 27 | 1,769 | -184 | 44.04% | 54.44% | -10.40% |
| Total | 178,303 | 167,299 | 5795 | 351,397 | 11004 | 50.74% | 47.61% | 3.13% |
This is why I'm keeping an eye on this seat for 2010. While it's ours to lose, it's too close to comfort for an open seat without Pete Hoekstra running. Instead of blue zones as in 2004, counties were blue. Even Ottawa County had blue zones. The City of Grand Haven went blue, as did of all places, Ottawa's portion of Holland.
Breaking it down further. Comparing 2004 and 2008.
2004:
Ottawa County - Bush 71.55%, Kerry 27.64% - 128,643 votes. 56,496 vote spread.
North County Portion - Bush 55.39%, 43.27% - 92,897 votes. 11,262 vote spread.
Allegan County Portion - Bush 69.69%, Kerry 29.43%, 20,112 votes. 8097 vote spread.
Kent County portion - Bush 61.69%, Kerry 37.20% - 14,536 votes. - 3559 vote spread
Muskegon County - Kerry 55.23%, Bush 44.03% - 80,178 votes. -8980 vote spread
Total - Bush 59.99%, Kerry 39.05% - 336,366 votes. 70,434 vote spread
Obama needed to make up 70,434 votes to take the district. He made up almost 60,000.
2008:
Ottawa County - McCain 61.15%, Obama 37.30% -136,269 votes, 32502 vote spread (cut by 24,000 votes)
North County Portion - Obama 50.45%, McCain 47.70% - 95,139 votes. -2617 vote spread (flip of almost 14,000 votes)
Allegan County Portion - McCain 60.75%, Obama 37.62% - 21037 votes, 4867 vote spread. (cut by about 3200)
Kent County Portion - McCain 52.23%, Obama 45.91% - 14,682 votes, 928 vote spread. (cut by about 2600)
Muskegon County - Obama 63.87%, McCain 34.58% - 84,271 votes. -24678 votes. (Increased by about 15000)
Now do you see the concern here with an open seat. The big base is Ottawa County, still the most Republican County in the state. Three of the candidates are from Ottawa County (Huizenga, Kuipers, and Riemersma). Bill Cooper is from Fruitport in Muskegon County. The three from Ottawa County all have strong name recognition (not sure about Cooper one way or the other). Kuipers is a State Senator. Huizenga was a state rep until 2008. Riemersma has never held elected office, but played TE for the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Michigan Wolverines. Most football fans know who he is. The only democrat announced if Fred Johnson.
It'll be interesting who gets past the primary, and who runs for the democrats. Fred Johnson doesn't scare me. Julie Dennis doesn't scare me. She lost a district she should have won. Mary Valentine is running for state senate instead, and will be a formidable candidate there. Here's some of the farm club for the future.
State Senate 35 - Covers Benzie, Clare, Kalkaska, Lake, Leelanau, Manistee, Mecosta, Missaukee, Osceola, Roscommon, and Wexford Counties. Benzie, Lake, Manistee, and Wexford counties are in the district. Michelle McManus, from Leelanau County, is termed out as State Senator, and running for Secretary of State. This is an open seat.
| St Senate 35th | GOP | Dem | ||||||
| 06 - McManus/Schippers | 62199 | 40836 | 2146 | 105,181 | 21363 | 59.14% | 38.82% | 20.31% |
| 02 - McManus/Dahlberg | 51405 | 30942 | 2076 | 84,423 | 20463 | 60.89% | 36.65% | 24.24% |
St. Senate 34th - Covers Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties. This is also an open seat and the dems think they have a very good shot at this. Obama won three of the counties, and Muskegon is a base county. Gerald Van Woerkom is termed out and won two close races here by narrowing his losses in Muskegon and running well in the outcounties.
| St Senate 34th | GOP | Dem | ||||||
| 06 - VanWoerkom/Dennis | 52,233 | 50,870 | 103,103 | 1363 | 50.66% | 49.34% | 1.32% | |
| 02 - VanWoerkom/Shrauger | 42,180 | 41,233 | 1882 | 85,295 | 947 | 49.45% | 48.34% | 1.11% |
St Senate 30th - Covers Ottawa County, and in Kent County the City of Grandville, Sparta Township. All except Grandville is in the 2nd district. Wayne Kuipers is termed out and running for Hoekstra's seat.
| St Senate 30th | GOP | Dem | ||||||
| 06 - Kuipers/VanderStoep | 83,242 | 31,328 | 2223 | 116,793 | 51914 | 71.27% | 26.82% | 44.45% |
| 02 - Kuipers/O'Brien | 71,160 | 21,701 | 1637 | 94,498 | 49459 | 75.30% | 22.96% | 52.34% |
St Senate 28th - Covers Ada Twp, Algoma Twp, Alpine Twp, Bowne Twp, Byron Twp, Caledonia Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, Gaines Twp, Grand Rapids twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Spencer Twp, Tyrone Twp, City of Walker, and City of Wyoming. Alpine Twp, part of Solon Twp, and Tyrone Twp is in the district.
| St Senate 28th | GOP | Dem | ||||||
| 06 - Jansen/Abbassee | 78,234 | 42,227 | 2646 | 123,107 | 36007 | 63.55% | 34.30% | 29.25% |
| 02 - Sikkema/Berry | 72,993 | 25,425 | 1373 | 99,791 | 47568 | 73.15% | 25.48% | 47.67% |
State Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Allegan is in the 2nd district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.
| St Senate 24th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 06 - Birkholz/Royston | 64,737 | 46,480 | 111,217 | 18257 | 58.21% | 41.79% | 16.42% | |
| 02 - Birkholz/Birdson | 57,906 | 32,170 | 90,076 | 25736 | 64.29% | 35.71% | 28.57% |
State Rep 102nd - Covers Mecosta, Osceola, and Wexford Counties. Wexford is in the 2nd district.
| St Rep 102nd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Booher/Heffron | 26,212 | 16,002 | 1241 | 43,455 | 10210 | 60.32% | 36.82% | 23.50% |
| 06 - Booher/Heffron | 21,637 | 13,260 | 34,897 | 8377 | 62.00% | 38.00% | 24.00% | |
| 04 - Booher/Challender | 26,000 | 14,761 | 40,761 | 11239 | 63.79% | 36.21% | 27.57% | |
| 02 - Johnson/Challender | 17,815 | 8,805 | 26,620 | 9010 | 66.92% | 33.08% | 33.85% |
State Rep 101st - Covers Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee, and Mason counties. This seat flipped in 2008 after Republican David Palsok was termed out. there was a tough primary fight, and Dan Scripps, the democrat worked his ass off in this district. He was aided by Obama winning this district, but a lot of this I think he did on his own. He's probably the opponent I'd least like to see run for the 2nd, or for the McManus State Senate seat. Scripps won Leelanau County in 2006 against Palsrok and won all counties in 2008.
| St Rep 101st | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Franz/Scripps | 20,748 | 30,984 | 51,732 | -10236 | 40.11% | 59.89% | -19.79% | |
| 06 - Palsrok/Scripps | 21,776 | 20,132 | 41,908 | 1644 | 51.96% | 48.04% | 3.92% | |
| 04 - Palsrok/Gebhard | 26,990 | 21,457 | 48,447 | 5533 | 55.71% | 44.29% | 11.42% | |
| 02 - Palsrok/Krieger | 18,684 | 15,754 | 34,438 | 2930 | 54.25% | 45.75% | 8.51% |
St Rep 100 - Covers Lake, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties. This district leans Republican and is opened up with Goeff Hansen term limited. Lake county is democrat, and Oceana is competitive. Newaygo is still strongly Republican and is the most populated part of the district.
| St Rep 100th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Hansen/Richards | 21,940 | 16,343 | 1021 | 39,304 | 5597 | 55.82% | 41.58% | 14.24% |
| 06 - Hansen/Richards | 19,139 | 13,590 | 32,729 | 5549 | 58.48% | 41.52% | 16.95% | |
| 04 - Hansen/Griffin | 23,270 | 14,863 | 38,133 | 8407 | 61.02% | 38.98% | 22.05% | |
| 02 - Pumford/Sterling | 16,959 | 9,279 | 26,238 | 7680 | 64.64% | 35.36% | 29.27% |
St Rep 92 - Covers Fruitland Twp, Laketon Twp, the City of Muskegon, the City of Muskegon Heights, Muskegon Twp, and the city of North Muskegon. It is the most democrat part of Muskegon County and the 2nd district. It is an open seat with Doug Bennett termed out.
| St Rep 92nd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - McCormick/Bennett | 9,615 | 26,384 | 35,999 | -16769 | 26.71% | 73.29% | -46.58% | |
| 06 - Harris-Barnell/Bennett | 7,615 | 18,333 | 25,948 | -10718 | 29.35% | 70.65% | -41.31% | |
| 04 - Cutler/Bennett | 11,804 | 22,498 | 34,302 | -10694 | 34.41% | 65.59% | -31.18% | |
| 02 - Boughton/Dennis | 7,471 | 15,339 | 22,810 | -7868 | 32.75% | 67.25% | -34.49% |
St Rep 91 - Covers Blue Lake Twp, Casnovia Twp, Cedar Creek Twp, Dalton Twp, Egelston Twp, Fruitport Twp, Holton Twp, City of Montague, Montague Twp, Moorland Twp, City of Norton Shores, Raveena Twp, City of Roosevelt Park, Sullivan Twp, White River Twp, Whitehall Twp, the City of Whitehall in Muskegon County, and Chester Twp in Ottawa County. It is a competitive district that has gone for David Farhat for the GOP and Mary Valentine for the Dems. It is opening up as Valentine is running for State Senate.
| St Rep 91st | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Hughes/Valentine | 21,035 | 24,445 | 45,480 | -3410 | 46.25% | 53.75% | -7.50% | |
| 06 - Farhat/Valentine | 15,745 | 19,945 | 35,690 | -4200 | 44.12% | 55.88% | -11.77% | |
| 04 - Farhat/Frye | 22,327 | 20,587 | 42,914 | 1740 | 52.03% | 47.97% | 4.05% | |
| 02 - Farhat/Frye | 14,892 | 14,450 | 29,342 | 442 | 50.75% | 49.25% | 1.51% |
St Rep 90 - Covers Blendon Twp, City of Holland, Holland Twp, City of Hudsonville, Jamestown Twp, City of Zeeland, and Zeeland Twp in Ottawa County. This is one of the most republican districts in the country with Jamestown Twp, Zeeland and Hudsonville. Holland usually is solid GOP, although Obama won the Ottawa portion.
| St Rep 90th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Haveman/Stauffer | 31,223 | 12,011 | 43,234 | 19212 | 72.22% | 27.78% | 44.44% | |
| 06 - Huizenga/Stauffer | 27,350 | 7,593 | 34,943 | 19757 | 78.27% | 21.73% | 56.54% | |
| 04 - Huizenga/Bartlett | 32,383 | 7,607 | 1233 | 41,223 | 24776 | 78.56% | 18.45% | 60.10% |
| 02 - Huizenga/Breese | 22,940 | 5,168 | 28,108 | 17772 | 81.61% | 18.39% | 63.23% |
St Rep 88 - Most of Allegan County (and all of Allegan in the 2nd)
| St Rep 88th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Genetski/Clark | 29,064 | 18,119 | 47,183 | 10945 | 61.60% | 38.40% | 23.20% | |
| 06 - Sheen/Weichman | 24,831 | 14,484 | 1043 | 40,358 | 10347 | 61.53% | 35.89% | 25.64% |
| 04 - Sheen/Fleser | 31,300 | 15,282 | 46,582 | 16018 | 67.19% | 32.81% | 34.39% | |
| 02 - Sheen/Fleser | 20,727 | 9,497 | 30,224 | 11230 | 68.58% | 31.42% | 37.16% |
St Rep 74 -Covers Alpine Twp and the City of Grandville in Kent County and the City of Coopersville, Crokckery Twp, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallmadge Twp, and Wright Twp in Ottawa County. All except Grandville is in the 2nd District.
| St Rep 74th | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Agema/Chase | 36,207 | 13,421 | 1911 | 51,539 | 22786 | 70.25% | 26.04% | 44.21% |
| 06 - Agema/Kauffman | 30,495 | 12,109 | 880 | 43,484 | 18386 | 70.13% | 27.85% | 42.28% |
| 04 - VanRegenmorter/Sloboda | 38,380 | 12,009 | 719 | 51,108 | 26371 | 75.10% | 23.50% | 51.60% |
| 02 - VanRegenmorter/Barringer | 28,234 | 7,492 | 407 | 36,133 | 20742 | 78.14% | 20.73% | 57.40% |
St Rep 73 - Covers Algoma Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Sparty Twp, Spencer Twp, and Tyrone Twp in Kent County. It's a district with strong GOP leanings, although the dems were high on Bruce Hawley in 08 looking for an upset. Tom Pearce was held to 59% and it opens up in 2010. This can be a darkhorse. Hawley took Tyrone Twp (which went for McCain) and Cedar Springs, and made it close in Sparta. Considering Pearce's old numbers, I don't think it was Pearce.
| St Rep 73rd | GOP | Dem | 3rd Party | Total | Diff. | GOP% | Dem% | Diff% |
| 08 - Pearce/Hawley | 31,757 | 20,624 | 1516 | 53,897 | 11133 | 58.92% | 38.27% | 20.66% |
| 06 - Pearce/Marckini | 28,636 | 14,714 | 1010 | 44,360 | 13922 | 64.55% | 33.17% | 31.38% |
| 04 - Pearce/Clowney | 35,035 | 15,277 | 1179 | 51,491 | 19758 | 68.04% | 29.67% | 38.37% |
| 02 - Hart/Clowney | 24,370 | 9,845 | 628 | 34,843 | 14525 | 69.94% | 28.26% | 41.69% |
The democrats have to run the table and hope for a 2008 year with extra local strength to win.While I am concerned, we are favored to keep the seat. To make sure of that, the Republicans here need to remember the following.
1. We can't sit on our butts. That means the candidates after the primary and activists taking the race for granted. If this happens, the dems have a chance to beat the spread against them in North Allegan and Ottawa Counties. Be prepared for a fight. If the GOP outworks the dems, we win.
2. Don't ignore the North. Obama narrowly took Benzie, Mason, and Oceana Counties. He won Manistee and Lake County with about 55%. McCain underperformed in Newaygo and Wexford counties with weak wins there. Those are low voting counties, but important. If the dems win those areas they won by big margins, it gets interesting. Combined, the North Counties are slightly over 25% of the vote.
3. Stop the bleeding in Muskegon County. Obama got over 63% here and won by almost 25,000 votes. Kerry won it by under 9,000. With a 8,000 spread, this district is not competitive. With 25,000 spread, it is, as McCain's Ottawa spread was 33,000. On a similar note to keep MI-03 (and part of MI-02), stop the bleeding in Kent county as well. McCain lost Alpine Township. That's bad. That's real bad.Muskegon County is about 25% of the vote. That puts the Obama voting portion to be about 1/2 the district.
4. Remember the base. Ottawa and Northern Allegan county. That provided the spread for McCain in the district. Worst case scenario is a big Muskegon turnout and a weak Ottawa County turnout. Ottawa County is about 40% of the vote.
This will be one to watch. I always think the GOP needs to be prepared for fights in all districts whether there will be one or not. There are two or three names I can see giving the GOP a headache here, and we have the big primary with Huizenga, Riemersma, Kuipers, and Cooper that can be real good or real bad. I think it's ours to lose, but we can't let this happen.
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