Michigan's Ballot Proposals - 2012

One of the major things this election will be the ballot proposals. There's a large number of ballot proposals this election at the end of the ballot. That's important to remember. While I never pull the straight ticket lever and leave, many do. I'd like to see straight ticket voting banned, but that's another issue. It's important to go down the ballot and make a decision in each race and proposal (and that includes voting for blank if one wishes to do so - I've done that many times.)

If I was voting in September, I'd go as follows.

1. Leaning yes, may flip.
2. No chance in hell.
3. No chance in hell.
4. No chance in hell.
5. Hell Yes
6. Leaning no for constitutional amendment purposes, but may flip.

Proposal  1 - Referendum on Emergency Manager Law - Yes approves, No defeats it.

PROPOSAL 12-1

A REFERENDUM ON PUBLIC ACT 4 OF 2011 -

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER LAW

Public Act 4 of 2011 would:

·      Establish criteria to assess the financial condition of local government units, including school districts.

·      Authorize Governor to appoint an emergency manager (EM) upon state finding of a financial emergency, and allow the EM to act in place of local government officials.

·      Require EM to develop financial and operating plans, which may include modification or termination of contracts, reorganization of government, and determination of expenditures, services, and use of assets until the emergency is resolved.

·      Alternatively, authorize state-appointed review team to enter into a local government approved consent decree.  

Should this law be approved?

I'm leaning towards a very reluctant yes. The only reason being that a no reverts back to the old EM law instead of what should happen to bad fiscally run municipalities. Bankruptcy Court. What I don't like about the EM policies is that it is in essence a bailout. The old law is more of a bailout than the current one. In both situations, the EM cleans up the mess of the democrats who screwed it up, and the voters put those same democrats back into office. Elections have consequences and voters who make bad decisions need to pay for it. If places like Pontiac, Hamtramck, and Highland Park keep voting for bums, then my view is TS. The state shouldn't bail them out. Maybe they should quit voting for those democrats over and over. I may yet vote no on this, and push for state cut offs instead. I haven't decided, yet.

Proposal 2 - Government unions.

PROPOSAL 12-2

A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION

REGARDING COLLECTIVE BARGAINING

This proposal would:

·      Grant public and private employees the constitutional right to organize and bargain collectively through labor unions.

·      Invalidate existing or future state or local laws that limit the ability to join unions and bargain collectively, and to negotiate and enforce collective bargaining agreements, including employees' financial support of their labor unions.  Laws may be enacted to prohibit public employees from striking.

·      Override state laws that regulate hours and conditions of employment to the extent that those laws conflict with collective bargaining agreements.  

·      Define "employer" as a person or entity employing one or more employees.

Should this proposal be approved?

This is bad news. It also applies almost STRICTLY to government unions like the SEIU and MEA which are the biggest problems. It also affects some public safety unions who have in statute binding arbitration. That's a law that affects your police and firemen, as they can't strike. Words mean things. What's really bad is the second part - "Override state laws that regulate hours and conditions." That covers everything. Why does this not cover a large number of private unions? That's because most of them are already regulated under federal law and the NLRB. The UAW, Teamsters, etc are already under federal jurisdiction with a lot of their contracts.

Prop 3 - Energy restrictions

PROPOSAL 12-3

A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION

TO ESTABLISH A STANDARD FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY

This proposal would:

·      Require electric utilities to provide at least 25% of their annual retail sales of electricity from renewable energy sources, which are wind, solar, biomass, and hydropower, by 2025.  

·      Limit to not more than 1% per year electric utility rate increases charged to consumers only to achieve compliance with the renewable energy standard.

·      Allow annual extensions of the deadline to meet the 25% standard in order to prevent rate increases over the 1% limit.  

·      Require the legislature to enact additional laws to encourage the use of Michigan made equipment and employment of Michigan residents.

Should this proposal be approved?

Hell No. We haven't even got to the 10% yet which was a previous goal. Green jobs are the fools gold of the 21st century, much as the service jobs revolution was in the 90's. This won't create jobs, but will cost jobs and raise costs of everything. Literally. The only green jobs are moneypits propped up by government subsidies. Those leaders of those companies also write big checks to politicians like Obama who give us Solyndra.

Prop 4 - SEIU in home care.

PROPOSAL 12-4

A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION

TO ESTABLISH THE MICHIGAN QUALITY HOME CARE COUNCIL

AND PROVIDE COLLECTIVE BARGAINING

FOR IN-HOME CARE WORKERS

This proposal would:

·      Allow in-home care workers to bargain collectively with the Michigan Quality Home Care Council (MQHCC).  Continue the current exclusive representative of in-home care workers until modified in accordance with labor laws.

·      Require MQHCC to provide training for in-home care workers, create a registry of workers who pass background checks, and provide financial services to patients to manage the cost of in-home care.

·      Preserve patients' rights to hire in-home care workers who are not referred from the MQHCC registry who are bargaining unit members.

·      Authorize the MQHCC to set minimum compensation standards and terms and conditions of employment.

 

Should this proposal be approved?

Hell no, again. I have a real problem with union dues taken from essentially independent contractors to be given to the SEIU's political buddies. If someone is getting in home care from especially familiy members, the state money should go to supporting the patient, not some SEIU goons who haven't done a damn thing to help.

Prop 5 - 2/3 for tax increases.

PROPOSAL 12-5

A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION

TO LIMIT THE ENACTMENT OF NEW TAXES BY STATE GOVERNMENT

This proposal would:

Require a 2/3 majority vote of the State House and the State Senate, or a statewide vote of the people at a November election, in order for the State of Michigan to impose new or additional taxes on taxpayers or expand the base of taxation or increasing the rate of taxation.

This section shall in no way be construed to limit or modify tax limitations otherwise created in this Constitution.

Should this proposal be approved?

Hell yes. This stops the Blanchard taxes, Granholm taxes, and even the Snyder pension taxes from happening again. This proposal dynamic also show the difference between many on the establishment and the base. A lot of people who are elected officials and tied to elected officials quietly oppose this, largely due to their support of the Snyder pension tax. Others don't like losing the power. Some have mixed views and wanted this for Granholm, but not the currently administration.

As far as I'm concerned, bad is bad. A is A, as the late Mark Scott would say. We did not and do not have a revenue problem. The most important thing right now isn't stopping the increase in spending, but actually reducing spending. Until spending is reduced to a manageable level, I don't want to hear any revenue arguments. The MBT needed to go, but a replacement wasn't needed.


Prop 6 - The Bridge.

PROPOSAL 12-6

A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION

REGARDING CONSTRUCTION OF

INTERNATIONAL BRIDGES AND TUNNELS

This proposal would:

·      Require the approval of a majority of voters at a statewide election and in each municipality where "new international bridges or tunnels for motor vehicles" are to be located before the State of Michigan may expend state funds or resources for acquiring land, designing, soliciting bids for, constructing, financing, or promoting new international bridges or tunnels.  

·      Create a definition of "new international bridges or tunnels for motor vehicles" that means, "any bridge or tunnel which is not open to the public and serving traffic as of January 1, 2012."  

Should this proposal be approved?

I really wish this wasn't a constitutional amendment. I signed the petition to get it on the ballot because of turnout reasons. I don't support a tax money supported bridge. I also don't like items such as this to be on the constitution. That's what makes this tough.

At the very end of the ballot are the local proposals. Green Oak has a road millage on the ballot. The City of Brighton has a bond infrastructure proposal. Howell Township is trying yet again with the sewers. Brighton Schools has a millage renewal. Fenton and Byron schools also have tax measures.

Bridget Mary McCormack - Dems Supreme Court nominee has never been a judge

I'm not going to get into the liberal v conservative ideology when it comes to the Michigan Supreme Court races. The justices and candidates are who they are. I'm not going to change too many minds on justices with ideological arguments. I am going to argue about experience. Most decisions aren't even ideological. Those decisions are the ones which make the news. Most decisions are procedural. In order to really understand procedures to the level a Supreme Court Justice should understand them, one should have judicial experience. 

We have three major Supreme Court races this year in Michigan. One is open seat. Justice Marilyn Kelly is retiring. One of the other seats is held by an incumbent, Justice Stephen Markman. The other is a quasi-incumbent in longtime judge Brian Zahra. Zahra was appointed by Rick Snyder to replace Justice Maura Corrigan, who stepped down to head Michigan Department of Community Health.

The dems are nominating three people for SCOTUS this year. One of them has never held any judicial position. Bridget Mary McCormack. So far she's had the most active campaign on the dem side. She's running for the open seat. Her top qualification is that she has an Irish sounding name. That ain't nice, but I'm sure that was a reason for the nomination.  She's the dean of clinical affairs at UM Law School. She's also tied to the Michigan Innocence Project, which is something which really does gain a lot of respect from me, because I don't think enough is done with wrongful convictions. That's the main reason I oppose the death penalty. I think McCormack should be commended for that work. Clinics are important, helpful, and do a lot for society. We're not electing a statewide clinic coordinator. This doesn't qualify her to be a Supreme Court Justice. Her judicial experience is zero. 


Compare the others. Incumbents.

Markman - Formerly on Appeals Court. Assistant US AG, Federal Prosecutor, Private practice.

Zahra - Formerly Appeals and Circuit Judge (at least 15 years), private practice.

Open Seat - Either:
Colleen O'Brien (whom I support) - 14 years judicial experience, private practice.

Jane Markey - 22 years judicial experience, private practice. While I support O'Brien, Markey would not be a bad pick.

There's no comparison. A Judge's job is to be the umpire, calling balls and strikes. The strike zone should be fair, and the merits of the case and proper procedure work should decide the cases. Justices of the Supreme Court should be the best of the best. Experience matters. Because I know a bit about Campaign Finance Laws, it doesn't mean I'm qualified to be Dean of the Political Science Department at Michigan State. My main experience is in a narrow field. I'm very good in that field. That doesn't mean I'm ready to take over the entire department at the best school in the state. More importantly, I don't have any teaching experience. That's important. That's what the dems are expecting us to accept with McCormack. Does she have the grasp of rules, procedures - in ALL aspects of law, evidential hearings, probate matters, contracts,  and other, especially non criminal law related fields? What's the learning curve going to be? 

For Michigan's Supreme Court, we don't need a major learning curve. We have two candidates running on the Republican side who both have judicial experience. Trial Court experience. If McCormack wants to be a judge, she should start with Washtenaw County District or Circuit Court, not the highest court in the land.

Experience counts.

2012 Primary - Is is a Primary, Convention, or Caucus?

There's two big issues coming up with State Committee in the next couple of months. It effects all of us. The first issue is when will our presidential primary, caucus, or convention will be? The other, bigger issue, is what will we have.

In 1972, the winner for the democrats in Michigan.....George Wallace. Yeah, that George Wallace. That was during the whole bussing issue.

In 1988, there was a caucus, at least on the Republican side. It was a major battle. I don't know what the democrats have had, but Jesse Jackson won.

In 1992, there was a closed primary. It got tossed out of court after the fact.

In 2000, there was a caucus for the democrats and republican open primary. A lot of the democrats voted for McCain over GW Bush, who won.

In 2004, the democrats had a caucus and there was no primary for the GOP.

In 2008, there was a modified open primary with both parties going on the same day.

With 2012, the democrats are having a caucus. What the republicans are having has not been decided yet. For the same reason the democrats have a caucus in 2004, I don't want an open primary. If I had the chance, I would have voted for Dennis Kucinich in the democrat primary. I don't want a bunch of democrats entering our primary and voting for some Rick Snyder type. Some power brokers WANT democrats voting in our primary because they want a Snyder type to win again. It's good for the consulting fees.

What can we do activists? Not a lot, but there's a little we can do.

1. Lobby the state committee members in your area. They will often be at your district party events. Sometimes they are at your county party events too.

2. Help choose your state committee members. This is long term. It won't effect right now, but could affect things four years from now. Precinct delegates choose delegates for state convention. Those delegates represent the district. The delegates choose the district party committee and its state committee members at the state convention.

3. Precinct delegates are voted in the August primary.

Right now is the time to be active on procedures. We can't let democrats choose our party's nominee. No more Snyders.

Defeat Jocelyn Benson! Don't let Soros and the "Secretary of State Project" take over Michigan.

You know, comrades," says Stalin, "that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how. - Boris Bazhanov's Memoirs of Stalin's Former Secretary 

As long as I count the votes, what are you going to do about it? - Boss Tweed

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Some of the most overlooked and ultra important positions in this state are those who run the elections. Those are the County Clerk, Township/City Clerk, and the Secretary of State's office. It takes the work of these offices and their staffs to run the elections and make sure the process is above board, competent,and with integrity. Livingston County does a great job with its Bureau of Elections. While these positions shouldn't be politicized, at least when it comes to elections, they are in a big way, and this politicization is coming to Michigan.

Some people don't like it when their boys don't make the rules of the game. First and foremost is the benefactor of the democrats, convicted insider trader George Soros, the man who broke the Bank of England. Much like his counterparts at Goldman Sachs, he makes a killing off of speculating, and what better way of doing that than by controlling elections.Other rich leftist democrats also wanted to get their people elected in their attempt to control our lives.

There project is called the Secretary of State Project. It's goal is to get their type of democrats in charge, and then look the other way when ACORN and PIRG to commit voter fraud rigging the election for the democrats. 

They had some success in 2006, setting up for 2008. Jennifer Brunner, now running for senate in Ohio, and Mark Ritchie in Minnesota. 

Foxnews:

Since 2006 the Democracy Alliance, a left leaning influence group funded by George Soros among others, has had remarkable success in targeting and claiming Secretary of State's offices in 11 of 13 critical states they targeted, including Ohio, Minnesota and Iowa.

Called the Secretary of State Project (SOSP) its aim is to target and capture the obscure, often overlooked office and implement election rules changes that give democrats a better chance of winning a plurality. Among those changes that SOSP calls "election protection," are a loosening of voter registration requirements and a lessening of efforts to prevent fraudulent voting, according to Matthew Vadum, a political analyst with the Capitol Research Center.

'The thing that is amazing is that they can get the office for as little $100,000 in campaign funding because no one pays attention to it, and they get to control election opportunities in a state. It is cheap," Vadum said.
He said SOSP is currently targeting three states in the 2010 election: California, Michigan and Minnesota. In total they count for 82 electoral votes.

Vadum says that because of chaos and demoralization the Republican Party has not formulated a response to the SOSP or tried to match their efforts.

Brunner has been a disaster in Ohio, unless you are trying to rig the game for the dems. There was tons of shadiness in Ohio for the 2008 election. The good news about Brunner is that she's running for US Senate where she can do less damage, even if she wins.

Frontpage Mag:

Brunner made news in October 2008 when she declined to hand over to county election boards 200,000 names on voter registration forms where the drivers license or Social Security number on the forms did not match the name. The SoS project praised her actions.

Foxnews source coinsides with Frontpage:

Blackwell's office was one of the first and most critical offices claimed by SOSP. He was succeeded in 2006 by Jennifer Bruner, who received $167,000 in campaign contributions from SOSP, and immediately began a complete overhaul of Ohio's voting system. Among the changes she made were allowing election day registration and the failure to purge election rolls of ineligible and dead voters.
Her most memorable moment was when a federal court judge ruled that she had violated federal law for "not taking adequate steps to validate the identity of newly registered voters." At the time she admitted that there were "discrepancies" in about 200,000 new registrations but refused to allow polling workers to take action on the questionable ballots.

One of the watchdogs, followed Brunner's shenanigans closely. From Discovering the Networks.

When Jennifer Brunner defeated incumbent Kenneth Blackwell in Ohio in 2006, twelve of the eighteen individuals who contributed the maximum $10,000 to Brunner's campaign resided in states other than Ohio. (One of those donors, incidentally, was Teresa Heinz Kerry.) Said Brunner, "I received significant support from the SoS Project, which helped me toward the election."

Brunner went on to make her influence felt in the 2008 election cycle, when she ruled that Ohio residents should be permitted, during the designated early-voting period extending from late September to early October, to register and vote on the very same day. Citing the potential for voter fraud under such an arrangement, Republicans objected. But on September 29 of that year -- the day before early voting was scheduled to commence -- the Ohio Supreme Court affirmed Brunner's decision.

In a separate matter, Brunner sought to effectively invalidate a million absentee-ballot applications that Republican presidential candidate John McCain's campaign had issued. Each of those applications had been inadvertently printed with an extra, unnecessary checkbox, and Brunner maintained that if a registrant failed to check the box — even if he or she signed the form — the application could be rejected. On October 2, the Ohio Supreme Court overturned Brunner's directive on grounds that it served "no vital purpose or public interest."

Brunner's most noteworthy claim to fame took place in October 2008, when she refused to provide county election boards approximately 200,000 voter-registration forms in which the name did not match the driver's license or Social Security number.

Count the dems, and reject the GOP votes. Boss Tweed would be proud. That's what the Sec of State Project wanted, and what they got.


Mark Ritchie was the Secretary of State who certified Al Franken's win on a recount. He was a Sec of State Project candidate and here's the result.

Foxnews:

(Mary) Kiffmeyer is "absolutely sure" that Ritchie's efforts to eliminate voting regulations ensured Franken's victory.
"The first thing he did when he got into office was to dismantle the ballot reconciliation program we started. Under that program districts are required to check that the number of ballots issued by matching them with the number of ballots cast," she said, "that way we know immediately that the vote count is accurate."
But that isn't what happened, she said. We now have 17,000 more ballots cast than there are voters who voted and no way to determine what went wrong. Why anyone would eliminate that basic check, I don't know," she said.

The Vadum guy quoted earlier was Matthew Vadum. He's one of the main guys at Capitol Research, a good organization has tracked the shadiness of these foundations and similar groups for years. He wrote a good piece in the American Spectator about the Franken-Coleman race and its "http://spectator.org/archives/2008/11/07/sos-in-minnesota">Secretary of State.

Both Franken and Obama, by the way, were endorsed by ACORN Votes, ACORN's federal political action committee.

Minnesota's secretary of state isn't a Democrat by happenstance.

Ritchie, who defeated two-term incumbent Republican Mary Kiffmeyer in 2006, received an endorsement and financial assistance for his run from a below-the-radar non-federal "527" group called the Secretary of State Project. The entity can accept unlimited financial contributions and doesn't have to disclose them publicly until well after the election.

The founders of the Secretary of State Project, which claims to advance "election protection" but only backs Democrats, religiously believe that right-leaning secretaries of state helped the GOP steal the presidential elections in Florida in 2000 (Katherine Harris) and in Ohio in 2004 (Ken Blackwell).

The secretary of state candidates the group endorses sing the same familiar song about electoral integrity issues: Voter fraud is largely a myth, vote suppression is used widely by Republicans, cleansing the dead and fictional characters from voter rolls should be avoided until embarrassing media reports emerge, and anyone who demands that a voter produce photo identification before pulling the lever is a racist, democracy-hating Fascist.

......

Most media reports also leave out the fact that Ritchie has extensive ties to the controversial in-your-face direct action group, ACORN (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now), whose employees have been implicated in electoral fraud time and time again.

In 2006, the Minnesota ACORN Political Action Committee endorsed Ritchie and donated to his campaign. According to the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board, contributors to Ritchie's campaign included liberal philanthropists George Soros, Drummond Pike, and Deborah Rappaport, along with veteran community organizer Heather Booth, a Saul Alinsky disciple who co-founded the Midwest Academy, a radical ACORN clone. One article on Ritchie's 2006 campaign website brags about the fine work ACORN did in Florida to pass a constitutional amendment to raise that state's minimum wage.

ACORN got their man in. Their man made sure Stuart Smalley became a senator. The good news is that Mark Ritchie is running for re-election in Minnesota. Hopefully, the good people there throw his sorry ass out.

But closer to home, the Secretary of State Project wants their own Mark Ritchie or Jennifer Brunner right here in Michigan. Her name is Jocelyn Benson. What are Benson's credentials?

Benson's a native of Philly, well known for vote fraud. She went to Harvard Law. I've seen enough damage done by Harvard Law politicians like Obama and Granholm to refuse to back anyone who went there for political office. In 2004, for the democrats, she ran the poll challenging/poll watching programs for the DNC. They want the fox guarding the henhouse. She's also a protege of Jennifer Brunner.Yes, that Brunner. She was recently endorsed (before dems convention) by the SEIU, the most far left of the union leadership.

The Blog Prof has been on the case researching Benson with posts here and here.


In order to ensure that elections are fair, conducted with integrity, and legitimate,  Jocelyn Benson and her friends at Secretary of State Project MUST be defeated by any legal means necessary. We must keep ACORN, PIRG-IM, Soros, Moveon.org, and the rest of those groups out of the Sec of State office here.

We'll be keeping a close eye on this race, and there's no better spot than Campaign Finance Reports. BS walks, and money talks, much of it coming from out of state sources. Benson as of January 1st, had $200,000 to dump in this race. It's a quite interesting list. Here's some of the out of state money. A lot of this is from NY, Massachusetts, California, and the Washington DC area.

• Alida Messinger, New York City - $3400, one of the Rockefellers. Senator Jay's sister. 
• Secretary of State Project, Santa Cruz, California - $3200
• Rob McKay, San Francisco - $3400, Taco Bell heir and part of Soros's "Democracy Alliance
• Megan Hull, Washington DC - $3400 - Secretary of State Project
• Ellen Kurz, Cambridge MA - $2000 - Former staffer of Mike Dukakis
• Blair Hull, Chicago - $3400 - Former Senate Candidate, trader, sold his company to Goldman Sachs
• Craig Kaplan, New York City - $1370 - Project Vote Board of Directors
• Mary Delaney, Oakand CA - $1500 - Akonadi Foundation  (Also big Emily's List donor)
• Tom Cosgrove, Cambridge MA - $500 - Dukakis worker, and Huffington Post poster
• Dan Payne, Newton MA - $500 - Massachusetts political consultant
• Amy Pritchard, Washington DC, $500 - DC Consultant
• Jack Corrigan, Brookline MA, $500 - Head Lawyer in Palm Beach County for Gore "Re-re-re-count" efforts. 
• Patricia Bauman, Washington DC, $750 - Bauman Foundation, Pew environmental
• Joe Ganley, Wellesley, MA, $500 - Former Campaign manager to Chris Gabrieli (lost to Patrick in 06 primary)
• Lani Guinier, Cambridge MA, $500 - Clinton's nomination for Assistant Attorney General, supports pure racial quotas and proportional representation on local levels. 
• Laura Quinn, Washington DC, $500 - Al Gore's former Communications director
• Ann McPhail, Arlington VA, $500 - International Monetary Fund
• Holly Schadler, Chevy Chase MD, $500 - Lobbyist, Sierra Club, Clintonite
• Tom Hsieh, San Francisco CA, $500 - Former member San Francisco Board of Supervisors, consultant
• Celinda Lake, Washington DC, $500 - Al Gore's Pollster
• Bill Roberts, Brooklyn NY, $500 - Atlantic Philanthropies - supports Illegal aliens, Aspen Institute, left wing "vote protection" (ie fraud doesn't exist), League of Conservation Voters, Tides Foundation (George Soros),
• Michael Kieschnick, Palo Alto CA, $2000 - One of the founders of the Secretary of State Project and CREDO (Working Assets)
• Joseph Sandler, Bethesda MD, $750 - DNC lawyer, moveon.org advisor, 
• Myles Duffy, Brooklyn NY, $450 - Howard Dean guy
• Gene Karpinski, Arlington VA, $400 - League of Conservation Voters
• Chip Amoe, Washington DC, $366.89 - Lobbyist
• Spencer Overton, Chevy Chase MD, $250.00 - Obama's Deputy Assistant AG for office of legal policy. Worked with "Common Cause" and NAACP's election team. 
• Noah McCormack, Cambridge MA, $250.00 - Harvard Fellow
• Scott Nielsen, Chicago IL, $250.00 - Tied to Soros, Joyce Foundation, and Democracy Alliance (Sec of State Fund)
• Alvaro Bedoya - Washington DC, $250.00 - Counsel to Al Franken, also associate of Soros
• Caron Atlas, Brooklyn NY, $300.00 - Fractured Atlas, Brooklyn Arts organization
• Sanford Newman, Takoma Park MD, $250.00 - Project Vote, associate of ACORN. Where Obama got his start in politics. 
• Sujata Tejwani, New York City, $250.00 - Camp Wellstone (former MN senator Paul Wellstone)
• Andrew Tobias, Miami, $250.00 - Treasurer for democrats, pushed for no fault insurance requirements in California, and absolutely loves current no-fault insurance law in Michigan (but lives in Florida)
• Anne Bartley, San Francisco, $250.00 - Rockefeller funds, Democracy Alliance, and "Grass Roots" Policy Project (SEIU)
• Christopher Edley, Berkeley CA, $750.00 - Dean of University of Cal Berkeley Law School
• Becky Bond, San Francisco, $250.00 - Working Assets/CREDO - (Which raises money for Greenpeace and Planned Parenthood [Barrenhood])
• Kenneth Robinson, Providence RI, $250.00 - Bank Lobbyist
• Jonah Goldman, Washington DC, $250.00 - Glover Park Group, and Democrat voting pusher
• Mark Friedrichs, Washington DC, $250.00 - Department of Energy
• Julia Cohen, Washington DC, $250.00 - Campus Progress (and heads up for vote fraud on campuses)
• Thurgood Marshall Jr, Arlington VA, $250.00 - Former Clinton Attorney, Third Way
• Jackie Bray, Washington DC, $250.00, Staffer for Terry McAuliffe campaign (Clintons's DNC guy)
• Greg Speed, Washington DC, $250.00 - America Votes  (George Soros, Peter Lewis, Herb and Marion Sandler) - also has ties to ACORN, Brady Gun grabbers, Emily's List, SEIU, and a who's who of leftist causes
• Jonathan Barry, Brooklyn NY, $250.00 - Goldman Sachs
• Shaunna Thomas, Washington DC, $250.00 - People for the Unamerican Way
• Angelique Pirozzi, Boston MA, $250.00 -  Organizational Specialist of the National Education Association
• Robert Richman, St Paul MN, $250.00 - Paul Wellstone guy. Grass Roots Solutions. Consulting Firm tied to AFL-CIO. One of his favorite organizers - Saul Alinsky

That's just in the first 250 or so contributions, of a list of 1600. I don't have time yet to go through all of them in detail, but we'll get to more of that at the convention report filing. Tons of out of state, east coast, California, and Chicago machine donations from lobbyists, far leftist interest groups, and Clintonites. This isn't even a congressional race. Further glancing after the 250 shows the city attorney for San Francisco, the fundraiser for Emily's list, the Cambridge MA peace coalition, "Fair elections" co-founder, Harvard professors, Rock the vote organizer, former congressman Marty Meehan from the McCain Feingold bill on the house side, the Massachusetts Deputy Treasurer, . I'm not even getting to our in state usual suspects. These are out of state interferences into Michigan elections.

Keep in mind this is for a MICHIGAN Secretary of State race. These national far leftists want to take our OUR elections. We need to remember this in November, and to tell these people to stay the hell out of Michigan.We do not need to have our elections be laughingstocks like Mark Ritchie's Minnesota was in the Stuart Smalley race. We must defeat Benson in November.

More on the tax votes

While the source is left of center, Ed Brayton and Michigan Messenger has more information than has been reported from the AP wires so far.

On the tax bills:

Among the bills passed were:

HB 5352, which freezes the the yearly inflation adjustment on the personal income tax exemption. This bill passed by a 58-51 margin early in the evening.

HB 5384, a “shell” bill that will likely reduce some exemptions under the Michigan Business Tax. This bill passed 57-52.

HB 5386, which places a 3 percent tax on doctors in order to fund a Quality Assurance Assessment Program for doctors in the state. By establishing those assessments, this bill would also qualify the state for an additional $822 million in federal matching funds for Medicaid reimbursement.

The Doctor's tax was the most controversial.

The voting on this bill began just before 7:15 pm and within a few minutes it became obvious that the bill was going to fail. There were 56 votes against the bill on the board by 7:25. But the voting remained open for nearly another hour, during which time presumably some members were pressed to change their votes.

At 8:21, the chair suddenly ordered the clerk to tally the vote, which was 56-52 in favor of the bill. Four legislators had been convinced to change their votes: Rep. Jimmy Womack (D-Detroit), Lee Gonzales (D-Flint), Dan Scripps (D-Leelanau), and Marc Corriveau (D-Plymouth).

I'd like to see which democrats or republicans defected from the party line. Scripps and Corriveau should be targeted in a big way for their votes.

Bill Rogers on the tax votes

I just got an email from Bill Rogers right after my post on the doctor tax. Here's what Bill sent out to us.

House Democrats Vote To Raise Your Taxes
Tonight, Lawmakers Penalize Taxpayers, Business Owners and Doctors

I am outraged that tonight, the House Democrats pushed through a series of tax increases on Michigan residents and job providers in order to balance the state's budget, while stalling for the last nine months!

In bills ultimately approved by the Democrat-led state House, the proposals raise taxes by almost $400 million, including the elimination of $116 million in Michigan Business Tax credits that Livingston County businesses have been utilizing, a new health care tax, and the elimination of a scheduled $100 increase in per person deduction for state income taxes.

It is unbelievable to me that we even considered tax increases when Michigan families and businesses already took a massive hit in 2007 with an income tax increase and a massive 23% surcharge tax added onto the new Michigan Business Tax (MBT). To bring up tax increases at the 11th hour under the cover of darkness is a stunning breach of the public trust. We had a bi-partisan, signed agreement to balance the state's budget without raising taxes, and now the Democrats have broken that deal!

To end a government shutdown in 2007, Democrats proposed and pushed through a $1.4 billion tax increase, one of the largest ever in Michigan's history. Since that time, Michigan's unemployment rate has more than doubled. The state is facing a $3 billion shortfall for the current fiscal year it is working on and is already facing a projected $1.4 billion shortfall for the following fiscal year!!!

We must balance the state's budget without relying on Michigan residents and business owners to send more of their hard-earned money to Lansing. I am embarrassed that the House Leadership continues to pass the buck on Michigan's future instead of making the tough decisions that need to be made.

We MUST look at making the structural reforms now if we ever want to get our state back on track financially and economically.

All taxes bills passed by the Michigan House must now be approved by the Michigan Senate and signed by the Governor. To see how your Legislator voted on these tax increases, please visit www.michiganvotes.org.

Michigan House Democrats raise taxes on doctors

Way to increase health care costs with taxes, dumbasses. It's time for us to call our state senators tomorrow morning. Valde will be getting a call on this.

Bad news from USA Today

The Democratic-led Michigan House has voted to put a 3 percent tax on doctors' gross receipts to raise more federal matching money for state-run health care programs.

The House voted 56-52 mostly along party lines Tuesday to send the proposal to the Republican-led Senate.

Doctors who see Medicaid patients would benefit from higher reimbursement rates generated by the tax. Doctors who treat few or no Medicaid patients would lose out.

I'm looking for the roll call for this vote. As soon as I find it, it'll be posted here. Same for all the other tax increases.

Tax Votes Today?

I caught this from Michigan Liberal of all places. Eric Baerren posted a snippet from Gongwer that shows possible tax increases being voted on today.
From Gongwer via Michigan Liberal:

he House is expected to vote on five revenue bills during Tuesday's session.

House Democrats are expected to caucus for several hours before the vote. If all five revenue proposals were to become law they would raise an estimated $345.8 million.The revenue proposals are:

* a 15 percent reduction in Michigan Business Tax credits, equal to $116.1 million
* raising the state's other tobacco products tax by $41 million
* an extended hours liquor license fee to raise $13.7 million,
* freezing some personal exemptions to the income tax to save $55 million,
* and raising the earned income tax credit by less than the scheduled level to save $120 million.

A sixth proposal to launch a tax on physicians at 3 percent is not expected to come up for a vote today.

It's time for us to call our representatives. Bill Rogers' office just received a call from me. Cindy Denby will receive one as well. I support the extended hours liquor licenses, but that's about it.

Michigan 2nd in nation in frequency of deer-car crashes

This came from a State Farm Press Release. The map is here with the odds of each state.

Bloomington, Ill., Oct. 8, 2008 -- For the second year in a row the vehicles most likely to collide with a deer are in West Virginia. Using its deer claims data from the last half of 2007 and the first half of 2008 and motor vehicle registration counts by state from the Federal Highway Administration, State Farm estimates the chances of a West Virginia vehicle colliding with a deer over the next 12 months at 1 in 45. Such a collision is even more likely in West Virginia than it was a year ago when the odds were 1 in 57.

The probability of a vehicle hitting a deer in West Virginia sometime in the next year is roughly two times greater than the possibility that you will be audited by the Internal Revenue Service in 2009 and 1,100 times greater than your chance of winning a state lottery grand prize if you buy one ticket per day for the next year.

Michigan remains second on the list. The likelihood of a specific vehicle striking a deer there next year is 1 in 78. Pennsylvania (1 in 97), Iowa (1 in 105) and Arkansas (1 in 108) each moved up one spot on the list to third, fourth and fifth respectively.

Deer-car accidents are a way of life in Michigan. There are over 60,000 of them each year and I'm lucky to be one of the few I know who have not gone had to have my truck go one on one with a deer. In Livingston County, the Argus reported the other day that 1 out of ever 5 accidents in the county are deer related. I'm not surprised as I see them all the time in October, and often see them any time of the year. The whole area near the Brighton Recreational Area is probably the most deer infested outside of Kensington Metro Park. The farm areas are common as well.

And the tips they give on driving.

1. Be aware of posted deer crossing signs. These are placed in active deer crossing areas.
2. Remember that deer are most active between 6 and 9 p.m.
3. Use high beam headlamps as much as possible at night to illuminate the areas from which deer will enter roadways.
4. Keep in mind that deer generally travel in herds – if you see one, there is a strong possibility others are nearby.
5. Do not rely on car-mounted deer whistles. They don’t work.
6. If a deer collision seems inevitable, attempting to swerve out of the way could cause you to lose control of your vehicle or place you in the path of an oncoming vehicle.

Deer whistles? Please don't tell me that someone actually bought one of those things?

The best way in my experience of avoiding deer wrecks is to first know the area. When I take the back roads to Ann Arbor, I expect to see a deer. Sometime even in city limits. I saw 10 deer yesterday. When I go to my mom and dad's house, I'm surprised when I do not see a deer. They roam their neighborhood. I saw four of them last time I was there. They were outside on the front lawn. Knowing the area prepares drivers. That's why I drive slowly on my dad's street. Something can pop out of the woods anytime, even at high noon. High beams also help, particulary on two lane rural roads such as North Territorial, parts of M-36, D-19, Coon Lake Road and Hamburg Road. As speeds are higher, I'd much rather see a deer on the side of the road to slow down quickly, than to have to slam on my breaks and pray as I did last time I was on 8 mile.

With increased development, more safety zones, suburbanites feeding the deer (which I strongly oppose as nature should fear people), and less hunting, particulary in Southern Michigan, this is only going to get more common as there are going to be even more deer with less predators. Heads up, gardeners.

Electoral College Math - Part 8 - Michigan

Home sweet home. This will be more than likely another close race similar to 2000 and 2004. There are a lot of questions about what will happen here. I have all the 2000 and 2004 data on the county pages. They are out of date for 2006 results and 08 previews due to time contraints, but the 2000/2004 stuff is still there and accurate. I recommend looking there if you want to get more detailed than this post here.

John Kerry won 15 counties in Michigan. Al Gore won 24 counties in Michigan (out of 83?) Kerry won one county that Gore lost, Alger County, which is in the UP. Kerry and Gore did underperform in a lot of normally base counties, but there are a lot of democrats which are "local democrats" but not federal democrats. Bush ran into some of that problem in central Oakland County and to a lesser extent in parts of West Michigan where there are "local republican" that aren't "federal republicans."

In 2004, there were 4,839,252 voters. Kerry won the state by 165,707 votes. Gore won the state in 2000 by 217,279 vote. Every region here is important, from Detroit City to the corner of the UP.

Dividing the regions:
1. The UP:
The UP is locally democrat and federally a swing area. They went heavily for Granholm twice, heavily for Bill Clinton, and then voted for Bush twice, or more than likely, against Gore, and against Kerry. These are some of the most independent voters in the state and should not be taken for granted by either party. Bush won the UP by 6462 votes in 2000, and by 6388 votes in 2004. The democrats only won three counties here in 2000 and 2004. Their base counties here are Marquette and Gogebic (Ironwood), which they won both times. Marquette went 53-43% for Gore and 54-45% for Kerry. Gogebic went 48-46% in 2000 and 52-47% in 04. The third county in 2000 was Iron county, which Bush amazingly won in 04 by 9 votes. In 2004, the third county was Alger County which Kerry won by 77 votes after Bush won it by 71 votes in 2000. Houghton County is one to watch. Bush won big there in 2000 and 2004, but for different reasons. The City of Houghton flipped. Bush lost it in 04 after winning it by 10% in 2000. The Nader vote went to Kerry and then some. Bush made up for it in the other parts of the county. Overall, the Eastern UP is more Republican than the Western UP. The whole UP though can not be neglected.

NE Lower:
This is another swing area, and overlooked. Pundits say that "Up North" is Republican. That is NOT the case. I repeat. That is NOT the case. It is socially conservative. There is a difference. Bush did win here, but narrowly, with a spread of 2562 votes (50%) in 2000 and 6805 (53%) votes in 2004. Bush did win every county in what I considered NE Lower Michigan in 2004, and he lost Alpena, Ogemaw, Iosco, and Roscommon Counties in 2000. All four of those flipped. Alpena is a democrat base county on the state level, so that was surprising. Cheboygan, Presque Isle (Rogers City), Montmorency (Atlanta), Alpena, Oscoda (Mio), Alcona, Ogemaw (West Branch), Iosco (East Tawas), and Roscommon Counties were included. Montmorency and Oscoda Counties are the most Republican in this area. The rest are all fairly competitive. Much of this area is represented on the state level by two democrats, Joel Sheltrown and Matt Gillard and by Republican Tony Stamas on the senate level (thanks more to Midland).

Northest Lower:
This is more the base area that the pundits refer to. I do think it's a little shaky up there. The more tradition republican coast is changing, but the interior is more republican these days. Bush won it overall by 26,040 (57%) votes in 2000, and 32,327 (59%) votes in 04, but there is more than meets the eye in SOME of these areas. It was a Republican sweep in the counties I included in NW Michigan outside of Manistee County in 2000. I did NOT include Lake County here, but in West Michigan, so keep that in mind with these numbers. The main thing I notices in the numbers here, and in my travels is that the coastal areas with money are going more purple, while the interior areas are going more red. I think it's cultural issues between liberal outdoors and conservative outdoors. Biking and sightseeing v hunting and snowmobiling. That's overly simplistic and I really like both the coastal and the interior, but there is a clash between the cultures. Grand Traverse County was 59% Bush in 04 and 58% Bush in 2000. Not a lot of change right? Wrong. Traverse City went 51% for Kerry in 2004, and 45% for Gore. The townships masked the numbers. Leelanau County shows it more. Bush won it with 56% in 04, down from 57% in 00. Interior Kalkaska County shows a reverse. Bush won with 56% in 00, and 61% in 04. It's not just Traverse City either, as I've seen signs along the coasts outside of Antrim County. Petoskey and Charlevoix are going more purple as well, to a lesser extent than Traverse City. The two most competitive Counties are Manistee County which is about 50/50 and Benzie County which was close in 2000, although took a right turn in 2004. Frankfort there is still blue however. I do not know if it is cultural or union, as I am unfamiliar with the area. If McCain is going to win this state, he needs to hold the line in the coastal areas, and improve on the interior improvements in 04. Missaukee County is by percentage the 2nd more Republican County in the state. 68% in 2004.

I included Emmet (Petoskey), Charlevoix, Antrim (Elk Rapids), Otsego (Gaylord), Crawford (Grayling), Kalkaska, Grand Traverse (Traverse City), Leelanau (Suttons Bay), Benzie (Frankfort), Manistee, Wexford (Cadillac), and Missaukee (Lake City) Counties.

Saginaw Valley:
I think this is one of the most important areas to watch. The election will be won or lost here. In 2000, Gore won this area by 63,132 (57%) votes. In 2004, Kerry won it by 51,343 (55%). Can McCain knock down Obama's numbers in this social moderate to conservative area, but economic liberal area? That is the question here. Gladwin and Midland went for Bush. Gladwin is not a Republican county, but a 50/50 county, along with Arenac County. Midland County is a 56% base county for the GOP. Most of the real democrat strength comes from three counties. Bay, Saginaw, and Genesee Counties. Bay County is probably the strongest "white" county for the democrats. It's more democrat than next door Saginaw County. 55% (6100 spread) in 2000 and 54% (5600 spread) in 2004. It's more democrat locally than statewise. It's comparable to Downriver. Saginaw County is 54% (9700 spread) in 2000 and 53% (7700 spread) in 2004. I figured it would be more because of the minority heavy areas in the City of Saginaw, Bridgeport, and Buena Vista, but there is also heavily Republican Frankenmuth as well. Frakenmuth is one of the most conservative areas in the state and while small, gave a 2000 vote spread to the GOP, cutting the margins in Saginaw County. The big county here is Genesee County, home of Flint, once Buick City. Gore got 63% (53,200 vote spread) here in 2000, Kerry 60% (44,500) in 2004. The northern and Eastern suburbs (Clio, Montrose, Burton, Davison) are generally democrat in Genesee County, the Southern Suburbs (Fenton/Grand Blanc) more Republican.

I included Arenac (Standish), Gladwin, Saginaw, Bay (Bay City), Midland, and Genesee (Flint) Counties here. The question is whether McCain or Obama can sell here. If either can, I think they win. I don't expect McCain to win here, but I think, if he's smart, he can cut the margin in half. He's got to sell hope in the economy though and expand on his new plans for the economy. He needs to give the conservative democrats there a reason to vote for him. Bush didn't sell enough there (daddy's boy problem). McCain paid his dues and then some in the military. Obama isn't working class enough, and Bush isn't on the ballot.

Central Michigan:
These areas are often included as part of "up North." Bush won the area with 53% (7764 vote spread) in 2000 and 54% (9590 vote spread) in 2004. Two counties went democrat here in 2000, one in 2004. The Democrat base here is Isabella County. It is home to Mt Pleasant and Central Michigan University. It is not a deep blue area, but going more and more blue. Gore won it with 49% and 175 vote spread. Kerry with 51% and a 580 vote spread. I don't see Obama losing Isabella County. Mt Pleasant is 1/4 of the vote there. Only if the rural vote completely turns on him. Clare County is about 50/50. Bush won it in 04 by 150 votes and Gore in 2000 by 350 votes. Osceola County is a base GOP county. Montcalm County is interesting. It's GOP leaning, but has a labor streak to it. Clinton won it. If Kerry or Gore couldn't win it, I can't see Obama winning it. Mecosta is also interesting and runs about 55% GOP. It is a GOP county outside of Big Rapids. Big Rapids is a college town with Ferris State. I'd keep an eye out there. I included Osceola (Reed City), Clare, Mecosta (Big Rapids), Isabella (Mt Pleasant), Gratiot (Alma/St Louis), and Montcalm (Greenville) Counties.

West Michigan:
Some counties many considered North Michigan I put under West Michigan. I'm an East sider, so what can I say. Out west, you consider anything east of Lansing (or Lowell) "Detroit". Even with the expansions, it is overall the most GOP area of Michigan based on vote spread. Bush won it twice with 57% (137,420 spread) and 58% (151,670 spread) of the vote. Three counties went blue here, all twice. Lake County, Muskegon County, and Kalamazoo County. The latter one concerns me the most in 2008.

Lake County (Baldwin) is strongly democrat but small. It went 55% with a 623 vote spread for Gore and 51% with a 173 vote spread for Kerry. There is a sizable black population in Idlewild and Baldwin which may pump numbers up for Obama. I'm not sure how things will go there. Muskegon County is the union capital of West Michigan. It twice went 55% for the dems, more so than Bay City or Saginaw. Kalamazoo County is more narrowly democrat, but I doubt it will be in 08. Western Michigan University. 48% Gore, 51% Kerry. I expect 52-53% for Obama thanks to the university crowd there.

Areas to watch:
Oceana County - Leans GOP, but has a large Mexican population.
Van Buren County - Very close, narrowly won by the GOP.
Kent County - A GOP base county, but Grand Rapids itself leans democrat. How much will it cut the numbers.
Berrien County - Leans GOP, but Benton Harbor will go big for Obama there. Will it cut the numbers?

The rest are base counties. Ottawa is the most GOP area in the state. 72% with a 56,500 vote spread. Newaygo, Ionia, Allegan, and St Joe County should all hit at least 60%.

I included Lake (Baldwin), Mason (Ludington), Oceana (Hart), Newaygo (Fremont), Muskegon, Kent (Grand Rapids), Ionia, Ottawa (Holland), Barry (Hastings), Allegan (Holland), Kalamazoo, Van Buren (Paw Paw), Berrien (Benton Harbor/St Joe), Cass (Dowagiac), and St Joseph (Sturgis) Counties.

South Central/Capital Area:
This is a good bellwether for the state. Gore won this area in 2000 by 4128 votes. Bush won it in 2004 by 16,817 votes. This area is very significant if McCain is going to win.

Two counties went for Gore. Ingham and Calhoun. In 2004, Calhoun County flipped. It is a swing county if there was one. Battle Creek and Albion go democrat, withthe rest of the area going Republican for the most part. The key is how democrat Battle Creek itself goes. It's leans that way, not overwhelmingly. Shiawassee and Eaton Counties are also very competitive. Bush narrow won then in 2000, although won them by a more comfortable margin in 2004. They are very friendly to democrats on the state level however, so don't take them for granted. Clinton County is a base Republican county for the most part, but not as much on the state level. The Lansing influence affects all three of those counties. Clinton County also has a bit of East Lansing moving into Bath. Will that effect the numbers this year? Kerry won Bath Township by 3 votes and East Lansing's Clinton County portion by 99 votes. Few were cast there.

Ingham County is the base of the democrats in this area. It's the home of Lansing and East Lansing. Okemos is also strongly democrat. It went 58% in 2004 and 57% in 2000. In both elections there was about a 22,000 vote spread. McCain will lose big in those three areas, but can make up for some of it in Holt, Mason, and the rural areas. If he can get the spread under 20,000 he'll be a great shape. I don't expect that there.

Jackson is a key county here. It's narrowly Republican with the city leaning democrat and the county leaning Republican. It went 56% in 2004 which surprised me a little. It's normally not that solid. South of the Jackson area, the GOP base counties are Hillsdale and Branch Counties. Lenawaee County is conservative, not republican, but Bush won it by a good margin in 2004. That is Tim Walberg country, and he'll get his backers out to vote. I think all three of them go big for McCain. They have to, if he'll have a chance.

I included Shiawassee (Owosso), Clinton (DeWitt), Eaton (Charlotte), Ingham (Lansing), Jackson, Calhoun (Battle Creek), Branch (Coldwater), Hillsdale, and Lenawee (Adrian) Counties.

The Thumb:
The thumb is conservative, not necessarily republican. There are a lot of ticket splitters here. It's like North Michigan. In fact, two state reps there are democrats, as well as state senator Jim Barcia (partly due to Bay City). Bush did win the area twice with 53% (13,364 spread) and 56% (23,585 spread) of the vote. All of the thumb counties went for Bush. St Clair County is competitive and Tuscola County is sometimes compeitive (more so locally). They both shifted right in 2004. Lapeer leans GOP and was 58% in 2004. Huron County leans GOP (locally competitive) Sanilac County is a GOP base county consistantly. The cultural issues should work well in McCain/Palin's favor here.

I included Huron (Bad Axe), Sanilac (Sandusky), Tuscola (Caro), Lapeer, and St Clair (Port Huron) counties.

SE Michigan (Outside Tri-County)
I included three counties here as I do not consider them "Detroit area" like I do the tri-county area. Livingston County is 1/2 between four metro counties of different areas. Washtenaw County is its own main area. Monroe County is closer to Toledo, Ohio than it is to Detroit. This area overall went 52% to Gore by 20916 votes and 53% for Kerry by 22,248 votes largely on the strength of one county. Livingston County is base GOP. Washtenaw County base democrat. Monroe County is up for grabs each election.

Livingston County went 59% Bush in 2000 with a 15,900 vote spread and 63% for Bush in 2004 with a 24,900 vote spread. If McCain's going to win, it needs to improve on the 2004 numbers because of Washtenaw County.

Monroe County is a swing county. Gore won it in 2000 by 2600 votes(51%) and Bush won it in 2004 by 1400 votes (51%). Western Monroe County leans more Republican and Eastern Monroe County leans more democrat, however democrats can win in the western part of the county, and republicans in the eastern part. It is largely blue collar and has a labor heritage.

Washtenaw County is the number two democrat county in the state. Gore won it in 2000 with 60% and a nearly 35000 vote spread. Kerry won it in 2004 with 63% and a nearly 49,000 vote spread. Most of that gain is from Ann Arbor, Ypsi, and its main townships like Scio, Pittsfield, and Superior. I expect something similar to the latter with Obama. He might not run as well in the rural areas that lean slightly GOP like Manchester, but he'll fit right in at Ann Arbor. He's one of them right to the core.

The only way this section is close is if Monroe goes big for McCain (55%+) and Livingston gets big turnout and a 65%+ for McCain. I can see Livingston going that way. Monroe maybe, for one reason. One thing I notice that surprised me at the McCain event in Sterling Heights was a group of Catholic nuns. I did not expect that at all. Most nuns I do know lean democrat because of pacifism and labor sympathies, although they are pro-life. Monroe is home to the Immaculate Heart of Mary. Depending on the issues, I can see that as an advantage to either side.

Tri-County Detroit area:
Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne Counties. Overall this area went 58% for Gore and 58% for Kerry. The vote spread in 2000 was 322,635 votes and in 2004 was 339,045 votes. These three counties are the key.

Macomb County - Gore won it with 50% and by almost 8400 votes. Bush won it with 50% by slightly over 6000 votes. That's not good enough to win. McCain needs to get at least a 15,000 vote margin here. That means reducing his losses in Warren, Mt Clemens, Clinton Township (must win), St Clair Shores (Must win) Eastpointe, and Roseville, and getting better gains out of the northern tier (Shelby Township, Washington Township, Macomb Township) The most important areas are around M-59 and I-94. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, Harrison Township, Chesterfield Township, and St Clair Shores. That will make or break either candidate.

Oakland County - The most misunderstood county in Michigan. Believe it or not, it got redder in 2004 than it did in 2000. Gore won it with 49% and by almost 7,000 votes, and Kerry won it with 50% and 2760 votes. But, I thought the Knollenberg district almost went for Kerry in 2004? It did, but the county is more than that district, although that district is obviously very important.

McCain's job here is twofold. He must win back the Bush 2004 defectors while also improving on the lesser known parts of the county. Obama has a very good base here. Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, Royal Oak Township and Pontiac are black majority areas. Expect a 50,000 vote defecit from those five areas right off the bat. That, along with outmigration to other counties like Livingston, is why Oakland County is so much harder to win. There are also cultural left areas that will go dem in a big way over on the east end. Berkley, Huntington Woods, Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, Madison Heights, Royal Oak City, Hazel Park (more labor there, bleeding might be stopped), and in Central Oakland - West Bloomfield (unless Obama is viewed as too friendly with Muslims), and Farmington Hills is going that way. Based on 2004 numbers, that will be another 22,500 votes. 72,500 defecit off the bat.
Auburn Hills will be tough to call. It's voted democrat, but also for Tom McMillan. The good news is that can be made up. The key is stopping the bleeding in the money areas. Southfield Township (Bingham Farms, Franklin), Birmingham, Bloomfield Township, Troy, and the Rochester areas took a big step back in 04. Clawson took a step forward. McCain needs to do very there. Birmingham had an 1800 vote spread in 2000, but 1200 in 2004. Bloomfield Hills? 1027 to 851. Troy? 7300 to 6000. In 2004, those areas overall had slightly under 25,000 votes. That needs to go up. The other edges are the best shots. West of I-275 or North of M-59. Novi westward and Clarkston Northward. They moved in a big way towards Bush in 2004. McCain needs to keep that up. That area went 60% for Bush and racked up a 47,000 vote spread. The combination there based on 04 numbers....72,000. Oakland is more than the Bloomfields and the Oxfords, Lake Orions, Clarkstons, Milfords, and South Lyons can not be forgotten. It is a key county in 2008 as the pundits say, but all of it is key.

Wayne County:
John Kerry won Michigan by about 165,707 votes. He won Wayne County by 342,297, and 69%. Gore got 69% and won it by 307,393. Kerry got 94% of the Detroit vote and won it by 285,915 votes, more than the difference in the entire state. With Obama on the ticket, I expect a similar margin if the election is run above board there...if...more if some of the same shenanigans went on as it did in 04. We as Republicans need to make sure that the cheating does not happen.

Outside of Detroit itself, John Kerry won Wayne County 55-44% and by 56,575 votes. Take out Hamtramck and Highland Park within Detroit, and it is 54-45% That area is what needs to be targeted and targeted heavily. Most of it can be seperated into three areas. Grosse Pointe area, Downriver, and Western Wayne County. For those outside of Michigan, Downriver refers to the southern suburbs of Detroit near the Detroit river. Dearborn (and for some uninformed people on the right, it's not Dearbornistan) southward, generally.

The Grosse Pointe area leans republican, but Bush bled heavily there in 2004, as he did in a lot of money areas. McCain can't do that in 08. I threw in the more middle class Harper Woods area as well here. Overall it went 56-43% for Bush, with a 4683 vote spread. McCain needs to do well there.

Western Wayne County is more split. Some areas are democrat, and some republican. The far west is generally more Republican until you go more south to Van Buren and Sumpter closer to the airport (labor). The Ford Rd and Michigan Ave cooridor is very democrat outside of Canton which leans republican by the skin of its teeth. Plymouth (Township, not City) and Northville are mostly solid Republican (but they like Granholm). Livonia leans GOP. Redford is now solidly democrat and Dearborn Heights is as well, but maybe not as much as it was in 04. Garden City, Wayne, Westland, Romulus, Van Buren, Belleville are dem. Inkster is like Detroit. Overall this area went about 53% for Kerry and a 20,240 vote spread. This area can be won with the right candidate or wrong candidate on the democrat side. McCain needs to work this area, particulary Canton, Livonia, and even Westland.

Downriver is strongly labor democrat. It went 58% for Kerry with a 33,000 vote spread. I think McCain can cut this down some in places like Brownstown and Flat Rock, which moved towards the GOP slightly. Grosse Ile is GOP. Allen Park, Trenton, Riverview, Woodhaven, and Gibralter should be targets. Ecorse and River Rouge will go big for Obama. Dearborn will be tough, but Bush DID win it in 2000. Wyandotte, Taylor, and Lincoln Park are solidly democrat, but could their numbers be reduced. It's possible. This area needs to be targeted. There are a lot of seniors in this area, and McCain could do well there. McCain won't win Wayne County, but if he can run close within 5% outside of Detroit itself, he's in very good shape, especially if he pulls in big numbers out of Macomb County.


Overall, I think this state will be down to the wire. I like our chances this year with this candidate and opponent, despite Bush. Bush isn't on the ticket. Granholm is still governor however. If McCain wins here, it's most likely over. Much as the Republicans can not lose Ohio and win, the democrats can not lose Michigan and win. (If Michigan goes Republican, so does Ohio). Turnout is the biggest key here.

Electoral College - Part 6 - Midwest

Solid McCain - 11 votes
Solid Obama - 21 votes
Lean McCain - 28 votes
Tossup - 64 votes

Solid McCain
Nebraska (5 votes, all three districts) - There are actually four races in Nebraska for the president. The latest statewide poll has McCain up by 18. In 2004, Bush won it 66-33%, and in 2000 it was 62-33%. District 1 (Lincoln based) went 63-36% and 59-36% in 2004 and 2000. District 2 (Omaha) was 60-38% and 57-39%. Obama may make a run for it, but that's a lot of ground to make up. District 3 is the rural part and was 75-24% and 71-25%.

Kansas (6 votes) - Kansas has three political parties. The "conservative" Republicans. The "moderate" Republicans. The Democrats. It is competitive when the two Republican parties are at each others throats which is common right now with state issues. It hasn't happened in presidential races yet as the two Republican parties seem to be united on Obama. There's no local character involved here. Two August polls have McCain up 23 (Survey USA) and 14 (Rasmussen). With Palin on the ticket, this one is solid since the right won't stay home, and the moderates there probably like McCain quite a bit. Bush won it 62-37% in 04 and 58-37% in 00.

Solid Obama
Illinois (21 votes) - It's a solid democrat state even more so with the homer vote. Gore won it 55-43% and Kerry won it 55-44%. Rasmussen has Obama by 15 in August. That sounds about right here. Almost 40% of the vote is from Cook County (Chicago). It went 70-30 for Kerry giving a 850,000 vote spread. That doesn't account for Champaign, East St Louis, Quad Cities, and Madison County. Kerry won the state by 500,000 votes overall. The Suburban Chicago areas outside of Cook County are slightly Republican and are 1.2 million votes. That makes a small dent, along with the downstate areas. The counties with Peoria and Rockford are 50-50. Obama won 70-30 in 04 against Maryland resident Alan Keyes after dirty tricks by the Obama/Daley/Axelrod camp got Jack Ryan off the ballot. Will he get 70% here this year? Maybe not, but he'll win here.

Lean McCain
North Dakota (3 votes) - The polls have been nasty here for some reason. I haven't seen any non-partisan post convention polls. Bush won the state 63-35% in 2004 and 61-33% in 2000. They are notorious ticket splitters there however and sent two democrats to the senate. There's one August poll by the democrats that have Obama up by 3. One democrat poll in July has McCain up by 3. Rasmussen in July had him up by 1. It's enough of a concern to put this into a lean and not solid category, but past election performance keeps this out of a tossup. The worst case situation for the GOP is that this is West Virginia 2000 revisited. I do not expect that, but I'd keep an eye on it.

South Dakota (3 votes) - The polls haven't been as nasty here as North Dakota, surprising since it is less republican. Bush twice won here 60-38%. The most recent Rasmussen poll has McCain by 4. I have this in the same situation as North Dakota. Past election performance on presidential performance has this as a lean instead of a tossup. I'd keep an eye on here as well.

Missouri (11 votes) - For years it was the national bellwether always voting for the winner. It still is to a degree, although I'd give Ohio the edge there today. That doesn't mean Missouri isn't a battleground. I am surprised Obama hasn't pushed as hard there as he is in Indiana. Missouri is much more winnable for a presidential democrat. Bush won here 53-46% in 2004 and 50-47% in 2000. That's despite Kerry only winning four counties. Jackson (Kansas City), St Louis County, St Louis City, and Ste Genevieve. There is about a million votes in those four areas out of 2.6 million. Boone County is a 50-50 county likely going for Obama as it is home to the University of Missouri. The latest polls in August have McCain up by 10 (PPP - Democrat) and 6 (Rasmussen, non partisan). This one should hold.

Indiana (11 votes) - Obama has been working very hard here. Polls have been favorable as well. Three August polls have McCain up 2 (Howey Gauge), 6 (Survey USA), and 6 (Rasmussen). However, Bush won it 60-39% and 57-41%. The democrats have two strong bases. Lake County (Gary/Hammond) and Monroe County (Bloomington, home of Indiana University). Obama also has some help in the Chicago media here in the northwest part of the state. The keys here are this:
Indianapolis/Marion County - Kerry won it despite losing by 21pts. Obama needs to win big there.
South Bend/Elkhart - Bush won it in 04. It's economic liberal and social conservative. Somehow Obama put win that area big if he'll win the state.
Southern Indiana - It is more democrat, but Bush won big there in 04. Obama has to sell there if he'll win the state.
I can see one of those three things happening, but not all of them. I think this is like Bush's play for California in 2000.

Tossup:
Minnesota (10 votes) - I hesitated to put this in tossup because of its democrat heritage and polls, but the last two presidential elections here were 3% and 2% differences. Kerry won 51-48%, Gore 48-46%. All four August polls have Obama up, ranging from 2%(Survey USA) to 12% (Time). I think things will tighten up, but of the most competitive seats that went blue in 04, I think this will be the hardest for McCain to pick off. It is also the toughest state for me to predict. Mondale won here. So did Paul Wellstone. On the other hand, so did Rod Grams who was as far to the right as Wellstone was to the left. The democrat base is Duluth/Iron Range and Minneapolis/St Paul. There are also some scattered blue counties in the West and South end. The Republican base is the suburban counties surrounding the Twin Cities, and most the rural areas outside of the Iron Range and a few scattered counties. The Rochester area and St Cloud lean Republican, but Rochester isn't a gimme. If McCain can rack up big numbers in the base areas, along with the leaners, he has a shot if he can make inroads in the Iron Range. Whether he can or not remains to be seen.

Iowa (7 votes) - Iowa was one of three states to flip in 2004. Gore won it by about 4000 votes in 2000 and Bush won it by 10,000 votes in 04. Overall, I think this is by far Obama's best chance for a pickup and almost put this as leaning democrat. Iowa has a pacifist streak, and is the most pro-ethanol state in the union. McCain has long been hostile to ethanol. That means trouble. August polls range from Obama up 5 (Rasmussen) to 15 (Time). In short, Eastern Iowa leans democrat and Western and most of Central Iowa leans Republican. Davenport in Eastern Iowa is very slightly democrat with the Dubuque and Waterloo areas more so. The big base is Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. In Central Iowa, Des Moines and Ames areas are competitive, although Obama will likely do very well in Ames as it is a college town. The western area is largely Dutch and about as Republican as Ottawa County in Michigan. The central farm areas are more leaners, although I'm not sure about that with the ethanol issue. I think this one is trouble.

Wisconsin (10 votes) - One of the closest states the last two elections. Kerry won it by 11,000 votes in 04, and Gore by 5700 votes in 2000. There's five main democrat bases. Milwaukee, Dane County (Madison), Rock County (Janesville), the Southwest (Eau Claire, LaCrosse) and Northwest (Superior). The Republican areas are the areas just North of Milwaukee. Unless you count Ottawa County as suburban, Waukesha is probably the most Republican suburban county in the Midwest outside of a couple of the Cincy suburbs. The other suburban areas are strong Republican. Green Bay area(outside 06) leans Republican in federal elections, but I believe it is more ticket splitter. I'm not positive on that, but that's common in the North and things have been competitive. Most of the interior leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so like the rural areas in Nebraska. If McCain can cut the democrat margins in rural areas and the Northwest and hold the areas that Bush had in 2004 he wins. Polls here are starting to get closer. Strategic Vision (R) has the only post convention poll with Obama by 3. Others in August has it 6 (WPRI) and 7 (Rasmussen). It's going to be close here I think once again in the end and come down to turnout.

Ohio (21 votes), Michigan (17 votes)- I'll get to these two states later as I know them best.

Michigan does not need a constitutional convention

Over on Right Michigan, there is a debate over whether Michigan should have a constitutional convention. Dennis Lennox, most known for being a thorn in the side of Gary Peters, eloquently makes a case that Michigan should have a constiutitonal convention and sited term limits and the snake oil "reform" proposal by the democrats for support of the con-con. Despite sharing his opinion of term limits and the snake oil ballot proposal by the democrats, I could not disagree with him more strongly for several reasons.

First off, too many elitist types will hijack a constitutional convention to get rid of our top safeguards against tax increases - the Headlee Amendment and Proposal A. If the constitution is opened up, that is fair game, as is our version of the 2nd Amendment (Article 1, sec 6) and a host of other issues.

The main pushers of this group pushing for the conbention is the current bunch at "Citizens for Michigan" lead by elitist democrats and liberal republicans. People like newspaper publisher and former UM trustee Phil Power (D), tax hike supporter Joe Schwarz and his buddy Harry Gast, Former AG Frank Kelley, Debbie Dingell, John Hertel, and Dan DeGrow. That gets my guard up if there ever was one. Most of those legislators were not exactly the epidomy of greatness while in Lansing. Anyone in Southeast Michigan who reads the Brighton Argus, Livingston County Press, and Observor and Eccentric Newspapers know the leanings of Mr. Power.

Back in late 2006, they had a study with several recommendations to change our constitution. Their recommendations are as follows.

1. Increase Term Limits

I do not have a problem with that. I oppose term limits at the state level. Thanks to term limits, we had our fee increases by Rick Johnson and company back in the end of 2004 - which I think is part of the reasons we lost the state house in 2006.

2. Make it harder for constitutional amendments to be passed here.

This was in response to the holy grail of the elite and the Richard Florida crowd - affirmative action. That's a large part of what spun this into action. Now the left is trying to gore our ox on the ballot initative. Maybe so, but that's not a good reason to throw this out.

3. - Eliminating the state Natural Resources and the Agriculture commissions and allowing the governor to appoint her entire cabinet

Why should Granholm have all the power? We need checks and balances in this state.

4. Allowing the governor to appoint members of the State Board of Education and the governing boards of the state's three largest universities, subject to advice and consent of the State Senate and a partisan balance. Currently, members of the State Board of Education, regents of the University of Michigan, trustees of Michigan State University and governors of Wayne State University are elected.

Again, why should Granholm have this power? While I'm not a fan of the convention nomination system and prefer old fashion primaries, I at least have SOME say with that system. I'd rather let people have the say as opposed to the elite. Maybe it's just my Jeffersonian roots. If this is going to be changed, let there be primaries.

5. Allow the governor to appoint Supreme Court Justices to a single 10-year term with partisan balance on the high court.

HELL NO! Dealbreaker right off the bat. Partisan balance does not exist and will not as long as there are appointments. The most powerful branch of government needs to be balanced by the people and not by politicians. While I do not agree with a convention nomination system, anything that takes away the checks and balances away from the people is damn wrong. If Stephen Reinhardt is appointed under this new proposal, I have no say whatsoever in opposing his disregard for the constitution. Under the current system, I can vote him out.

6. - Levy an additional statewide mill to fund school district building programs that over time would reduce bonding mills at the local level

A tax increase. No way.

7. Eliminate super-majority voting requirements spelled out in the constitution. Banking code amendments were one example of voting requirements.

Why? Why was there a supermajority in the first place?

8. - Eliminate restrictions on local taxation, particularly for transportation

No. I remember the days of the runaway millages back in the late 80's. People were taxed out of their homes. We need fiscal responsibility instead and less taxes. I don't have Phil Power's money.

9. - Eliminate the Headlee rollback provision in Article IX, Section 31

That is the number one goal of the leftists who want to have a constitutional convention. Eliminate the barriers so our taxes go up.

10. Alter language regarding local elected official recalls so that the only reason for recall would be malfeasance or misfeasance

The democrats are still mad about losing the state senate after the 1983 tax increase. Tax increases are a damn good reason for a recall. It's another check and balance the leftists and the elitists want to take away from us since they believe they know better.

11. Allow the governor the option of a "pocket-veto"

We do not need to give the executive any more powers. We have the veto and override. That's good enough.

There's a reason why we do not have a lot of constitutional conventions. People are rightly suspicious when it comes to changing it. I really would not want to see the elimination of Headlee or the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, ex post facto laws, or tax safeguards in this state. They were enacted for a good reason. Government abused its power, and people moved to limit it. With a constitutional convention, all these safeguards are on the table to be removed. That is unacceptable.

I will say this. If there will be a constitutional convention, I will run for constitutional delegate and will knock on 15,000+ doors and try and raise $50,000+ if I have to win that delegate spot in an election. Freedom will be attacked, and it must be defended with absolute vigilance.

In the Right Michigan post, I also missed one reason more than any other why it needs to be opposed. Outside Lansing and Oakland Politics blogger Chetly Zarko pointed it out. He said this.

I agree with RM here, with this addition, copied from my response to DL on his item.
The RMGN debacle is evidence of what bad can come from convention.

Special interests will own the delegates, particularly since the Dems are sitting on the reform Marty Knollenberg proposed in Oct. 2007 that I pointed out to him last year. The Michigan Campaign Finance Act of 1977 forgot - understandably due to the rareness of conventions - to include delegates in reporting category defintions. And limit definitions.

Democrats - I'm calling Ward Connerly if there's a convention and there no law to say he can't give me one giant donation, which I'd never have to report. And I will run if there is a Con-Con, despite my hatred for it - largely to protect MCRI, but also to protect the initiative process, Headlee, and all that the people have earned in the last 40 years in at least marginally checking government excess.

Republicans - Stryker nightmare.

It's not individual candidates that evade the radar - its the potential for competing blocs of "sponsored" candidates. A Herculean battle would occur.

You think the raw costs of a convention in terms of administrative costs, staff, space, etc. are high. The political costs, and the subtle changes that can only ultimately favor the elite power interests since they are best positioned, are huge.

Fight both the Con RMGN and the Con of the Con-Con.

That is something I missed completely and is why it the word assume makes an ass of "u" and me. I assumed these are covered by the campaign finance laws. Nope. Billionire radical Jon Stryker can dump his billions into these races without anyone knowing. He can also call his sister out of state so she can dump her billions. All the Lansing and DC interests can dump their money, and George Soros himself could dump money in there, without any one of us knowing about that. All those that want to increase our taxes, earmark spending, grab our guns, criminalize certain speech (Colorado just did it), and do whatever they can think of can get their people in there.

If "Hell No" was an option on this constitutional convention, I would vote for it. I'll have to settle for "no." The prospects of what can happen at the constutional convention are about as frightening as facing the business end of a gun.

Michigan Primary - Game 4 Today (updates given here throughout the day)

Today's the Michigan Primary. I was absentee ballot number 60 in Green Oak. It seems fairly low for a presidential race.

On the Democrat ballot, we have Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd (dropped), Dennis Kucinich, and "Uncommitted." On the GOP side, we have Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, and Sam Brownback (dropped out), as well as "uncommitted". It looks like a light turnout by all the precincts I drove by (Southern Livingston, North Washtenaw) early today. That's no shocker since the roads are all snowy.

I think low turnout favors Romney on the GOP side. I'm not sure who it favors on the Democrat side.

UPDATE 1:30PM - EXTREMELY low turnout. I drove up again during lunch break. Low in Northfield township and Green Oak. It's very low in my parent's precinct as well.

Preview of Michigan 2008 Presidential Primary

Game 4 will be interesting. Besides it being my home state, there is much on the line here. Here's a scouting report.

First off, the democrats outside of Hillary Clinton, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel ought to be kicking themselves for their decision to take their names off the ballot. John Edwards needs the union voters. What state is more unionized than Michigan. Barack Obama needs the college towns and black voters. What better for him than Ann Arbor, Detroit, Southfield, and Flint? Bill Richardson could have taken advantage of the others not campaigning. For them, this is all Fubared. "Fouled" up beyond all recognition. Hillary isn't campaigning here, but her name is on the ballot at least. Unless "uncommitted" beats Hillary, I don't see anything outside of being a win for Hillary on the 15th.

The GOP side will be much more interesting. This race is LIKELY between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Both of them have been working this state extremely hard over the last three years in this state. Numerous visits have been made by both candidates. McCain won here in 2000. Romney was born and raised in Oakland County.

I was looking at the exit polls for New Hampshire and Iowa. A few things stuck out to me.
In Iowa
Gender Gap
Men
Huckabee 29%
Romney 26%
Thompson 16%

Women
Huckabee 40%
Romney 24%
McCain 13%

The gender gap wasn't a big deal in New Hampshire, but Huckabee did get 10% of the votes from men and 13% from women. McCain won both among men and women by fairly similar margins there. Will Michigan be more like Iowa or New Hampshire?

There were no Immigration or gun questions in the Iowa exit poll.

In New Hampshire
Gun Owners:
McCain 42%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 13%

Non Gun owners:
Romney 34%
McCain 32%
Huckabee 12%

Neither McCain or Romney are great on guns. SAFR gave McCain a mixed rating and Romney an unacceptable rating. However, McCain voted bad on gun shows and for McCain/Feingold. Romney signed an ugly gun ban in neighboring Massachusetts. McCain voted against that ban. If the gun owners negative voted AGAINST Romney, then that explains the 15% spread. Will they vote negative, or for someone completely different?

Illegal immigration:
Those who supported a path to citizenship
McCain 54%
Romney 15%
Huckabee 12%

Those who supported guest worker programs
McCain 42%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 10%

Those who support deporting illegals
Romney 40%
McCain 24%
Huckabee 14%

This is another issue to watch in the closing week. McCain is like Bush on the immigration issue, and that is a major factor here, almost like the gun issue is for Romney (and Giuliani). With jobs such a big issue here, that's something to keep an eye on.

The life issue is normally another factor, but it really did not matter between McCain and Romney if the exit polls are to be believed. Huckabee did pick up some votes based on the life issue however in New Hampshire. I didn't see that question in the Iowa poll either, but I think it was a much bigger factor there based on the demographics and turnout.

Now the question is how does this all play in Michigan. I expect a lot of independent voters in this race. With the democrats not having many names out there, that will skew some of the indy turnout, but not as much of the hard core democrat turnout which will go for Hillary, Kucinich, or uncommitted.

I'm predicting a 1-2-3 finish of McCain, Romney, and Huckabee.
McCain wins West Michigan. He's pro-life enough to be accepted there. His spending stances will help him, and he'll get enough independents in Macomb and elsewhere to support him to a win. Those in New Hampsire irked with Bush voted for McCain. The veterans vote in the end wins it. He wins by 5%

Romney takes Oakland County. The business support and organization edges for him, but he loses too many gun owners and others who are not sure where he really stands on the issues. Huckabee takes a lot of votes from him. Immigration helps, but isn't enough.

Huckabee takes the Northlands. The populist center-left economics and center-right social conservatism fits in Up North, near Flint/Saginaw, Downriver, and the thumb area. His drawback is that the business crowd and economic conservatives do not care for him much. If he can get some pro-life leaners and gun owners away from McCain, he has a shot, but he did not spend enough time in his state to win. I'd say about 15%

Ron Paul will likely get his 10-12% of support. I'd predict more, but not after his weak showing in New Hampshire. Thompson and Giuliani aren't catching on here for whatever reason. I think their votes will go to McCain over Romney (Thompson has similarities to McCain, Foreign policy in Rudy's case). Hunter is a good guy, but most do not know who he is.

Whatever the case is, there's a lot on the line here, so expect a lot of TV ads, robocalls, political calls, mailings, and other invasions by politicians on the way.

By the way - some last minute stuff in Livingston County:
McCain is visiting this Sunday. January 13. 2PM at Crystal Gardens in Howell. That's a free event.

The Livingston GOP has a fundraiser and pre-primary party on the 12th. All Presidential candidates invited. Shark Club in Howell on D19, North of I-96. $20 at the door. Duncan Hunter will be there. Other may stop by as well.

Current Delegate Standings:
Current Standings
GOP: (after 3)
Romney 24
Huckabee 18
McCain 10
Thompson 6
Paul 2
Hunter 1
Rest 0

Dems: (after 2)
Obama 25
Clinton 24
Edwards 18