Tuesday, May 01, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 107 (HD-107)

State House - District 107
Current Rep - Frank Foster (R - Petoskey)

Candidates:
GOP - Frank Foster (R-Petoskey)
Dem -  Suzanne Shumway (D-Petoskey)

Update 8-30-2012 - Shumway won the primary for the dems. That could be a geographic break for Foster since his opponent isn't a yooper.

Old District (107th)
Frank Foster - 19,337
Richard Timmer - 11,350

This is one of four districts based in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This is the only one of the four which has both trolls and yoopers living in the district. Surprisingly, the current rep is from below the bridge, Frank Foster. Usually this district has supported yoopers. This is a swing district that leans republican on paper. It's switch parties every time it has opened recently. While the two yooper counties are historically more republican than most of the rest of the UP, it's still very winnable for democrats. Gary McDowell had no problems winning this areas as a state rep. 2010 was an awful year for democrats in North Michigan including the UP. 2012 remains to be seen.

The old district covers Chippewa and Mackinac Counties in the eastern UP.  It covers Emmet County, a normally GOP base county, in the northern lower penninsula, and covered Tuscaraoa Twp and Koehler Twp in Cheboygan County. It picks up more of Cheboygan County to the point where the district is now about half troll and half yooper in terms of number of voters. The power will still likely be with the yoopers who are much more likely to vote for their own, while trolls are less apt to care which side of the bridge, and only if you are a townie and not a recent transplant.

While McCain won the district, that's not the ceiling for the democrat vote here. Gary McDowell with the help of the NRA and Farm Bureau took the district in 2004 by 3000 votes despite Bush getting almost 58% of the 2 party vote and a 6800 vote spread.This is a conservative district, but not necessarily a republican district.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Chippewa County 8267 8184 16451 83 50.25% 49.75% 0.50%
Emmet County 9314 8515 17829 799 52.24% 47.76% 4.48%
Mackinac County 3268 3027 6295 241 51.91% 48.09% 3.83%
Cheboygan County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Beaugrand Twp 329 321 650 8 50.62% 49.38% 1.23%
Cheboygan 944 1037 1981 -93 47.65% 52.35% -4.69%
Hebron Twp 57 92 149 -35 38.26% 61.74% -23.49%
Koehler Twp 299 263 562 36 53.20% 46.80% 6.41%
Mackinac Twp 195 175 370 20 52.70% 47.30% 5.41%
Munro Twp 181 236 417 -55 43.41% 56.59% -13.19%
Tuscaroa Twp 922 837 1759 85 52.42% 47.58% 4.83%
Total 23776 22687 46463 1089 51.17% 48.83% 2.34%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Chippewa County 9122 7203 16325 1919 55.88% 44.12% 11.75%
Emmet County 10332 6846 17178 3486 60.15% 39.85% 20.29%
Mackinac County 3706 2819 6525 887 56.80% 43.20% 13.59%
Cheboygan County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Beaugrand Twp 382 283 665 99 57.44% 42.56% 14.89%
Cheboygan 1233 906 2139 327 57.64% 42.36% 15.29%
Hebron Twp 77 64 141 13 54.61% 45.39% 9.22%
Koehler Twp 340 207 547 133 62.16% 37.84% 24.31%
Mackinac Twp 222 165 387 57 57.36% 42.64% 14.73%
Munro Twp 215 196 411 19 52.31% 47.69% 4.62%
Tuscaroa Twp 1067 728 1795 339 59.44% 40.56% 18.89%
Total 26696 19417 46113 7279 57.89% 42.11% 15.79%









GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Chippewa County 6397 5079 11476 1318 55.74% 44.26% 11.48%
Emmet County 8852 4070 12922 4782 68.50% 31.50% 37.01%
Mackinac County 2907 1701 4608 1206 63.09% 36.91% 26.17%
Cheboygan County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Beaugrand Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cheboygan

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Hebron Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Koehler Twp 238 109 347 129 68.59% 31.41% 37.18%
Mackinac Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Munro Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Tuscaroa Twp 943 391 1334 552 70.69% 29.31% 41.38%
Total 19337 11350 30687 7987 63.01% 36.99% 26.03%

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