Thursday, April 26, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 106 (HD-106)

State House - District 106
Current Rep - Peter Petallia (R - Presque Isle)

Candidates:
GOP - Peter Petallia - (R-Presque Isle)
Dem - Kenneth Hubbard (D-Alpena)

Update 8-30-2012 - Kenneth Hubbard won the dem primary.

Old District (106th)
Peter Petallia - 18,096
Casey Viegelahn - 11,744


This district was held by the dems for 18 years until the 2010 election. It was close on several occasions, but Alpena leans democrat, more so locally than at the top of the ticket. I think Peter Petallia was forced to take one for the team here. I think this may be our 2nd toughest defense. I don't like what they did to this district at all. This is a toss-up district I think in 2012. I think the dems will likely get it back when Petallia is termed out if he hangs on for two more terms. I think McCain took the old district, but Obama took the new one. Dems are stronger downticket here than they are at the top of the ticket too, which makes it harder here.

The old district covered Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties. It picks up part of Cheboygan County (not bad), and Iosco County (Bad bad bad). It drops Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties (worse). Presque Isle and Alpena have rather strong downticket democrat leanings. Iosco County does as well. Alcona leans to the right, as does most of Cheboygan County. Dropping the three leaning GOP counties eliminates just about any breathing room whatsoever. Petallia actually won Alpena County in 2010, although he lost Presque Isle County, albeit barely. Winning Alpena County is big, and if he does that again in 2012, he'll survive this district. Petallia ran in 08 against a strong former 2 term rep in Andy Neumann. I included that race as well.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 3404 2896 6300 508 54.03% 45.97% 8.06%
Alpena County 7125 7705 14830 -580 48.04% 51.96% -3.91%
Iosco County 6583 7309 13892 -726 47.39% 52.61% -5.23%
Presque Isle County 3606 3722 7328 -116 49.21% 50.79% -1.58%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp 314 254 568 60 55.28% 44.72% 10.56%
Benton Twp 926 876 1802 50 51.39% 48.61% 2.77%
Burt Twp 298 198 496 100 60.08% 39.92% 20.16%
Ellis Twp 151 118 269 33 56.13% 43.87% 12.27%
Forest Twp 211 267 478 -56 44.14% 55.86% -11.72%
Grant Twp 236 287 523 -51 45.12% 54.88% -9.75%
Inverness Twp 598 661 1259 -63 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%
Mentor Twp 229 182 411 47 55.72% 44.28% 11.44%
Mullett Twp 447 327 774 120 57.75% 42.25% 15.50%
Nunda Twp 220 234 454 -14 48.46% 51.54% -3.08%
Walker Twp 57 73 130 -16 43.85% 56.15% -12.31%
Waverly Twp 115 125 240 -10 47.92% 52.08% -4.17%
Wilmot Twp 191 157 348 34 54.89% 45.11% 9.77%
Total 24711 25391 50102 -680 49.32% 50.68% -1.36%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 3592 2871 6463 721 55.58% 44.42% 11.16%
Alpena County 7665 7407 15072 258 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Iosco County 7301 6557 13858 744 52.68% 47.32% 5.37%
Presque Isle County 3982 3432 7414 550 53.71% 46.29% 7.42%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp 328 224 552 104 59.42% 40.58% 18.84%
Benton Twp 986 747 1733 239 56.90% 43.10% 13.79%
Burt Twp 300 196 496 104 60.48% 39.52% 20.97%
Ellis Twp 170 122 292 48 58.22% 41.78% 16.44%
Forest Twp 236 289 525 -53 44.95% 55.05% -10.10%
Grant Twp 295 281 576 14 51.22% 48.78% 2.43%
Inverness Twp 638 534 1172 104 54.44% 45.56% 8.87%
Mentor Twp 224 191 415 33 53.98% 46.02% 7.95%
Mullett Twp 438 317 755 121 58.01% 41.99% 16.03%
Nunda Twp 254 207 461 47 55.10% 44.90% 10.20%
Walker Twp 62 57 119 5 52.10% 47.90% 4.20%
Waverly Twp 138 118 256 20 53.91% 46.09% 7.81%
Wilmot Twp 193 129 322 64 59.94% 40.06% 19.88%
Total 26802 23679 50481 3123 53.09% 46.91% 6.19%








Last St House GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 2866 1438 4304 1428 66.59% 33.41% 33.18%
Alpena County 5563 4151 9714 1412 57.27% 42.73% 14.54%
Iosco County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Presque Isle County 2489 2494 4983 -5 49.95% 50.05% -0.10%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Benton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Burt Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ellis Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Forest Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grant Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Inverness Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mentor Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mullett Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Nunda Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walker Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waverly Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wilmot Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 10918 8083 19001 2835 57.46% 42.54% 14.92%








2008 St House GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 3037 3046 6083 -9 49.93% 50.07% -0.15%
Alpena County 6824 7809 14633 -985 46.63% 53.37% -6.73%
Iosco County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Presque Isle County 2989 4196 7185 -1207 41.60% 58.40% -16.80%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Benton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Burt Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ellis Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Forest Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grant Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Inverness Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mentor Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mullett Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Nunda Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walker Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waverly Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wilmot Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 12850 15051 27901 -2201 46.06% 53.94% -7.89%

8 comments:

Conservative First said...

Presque Isle should have been tossed into the 105th district. As it is, Petalia probably holds the district, but it is likely gone once he is term-limited.

Republican Michigander said...

I was going to say that at first, but Petallia lives in Presque Isle. There's no way Iosco County should be there though. That's asking for trouble, especially in a district that's been democrat for 18 years.

ReaderDownstate said...

This is one of the most gerrymandered districts. It's 240 miles from one end to another. They could have drawn this district, the new 105th, and the new 107th in a better way. I don't understand their logic, except to help Foster and hurt MacMaster (his new district makes it difficult for him to run for Senate). Pettalia will likely win because the Dems don't have a frontbench or farm league except in Alpena. My bigger concern would be a candidate from Tawas.

Republican Michigander said...

I think they may have been afraid of a second run from Van Sheltrown in a non 2010 year and didn't want Iosco/Ogemaw together. I still don't buy in. If Petallia wasn't from Presque Isle, I'd split those counties. I'd still be tempted to take out the double break in Cheboygan and take out the areas Petallia lost in 2012, and get Iosco (Tawas) out of there. I would have at least find a way to get Otsego to this district. McMaster will be fine with just Antrim and Charlevoix together.

Conservative First said...

The district is not gerrymandered. There is only one county split, which has to be split for population reasons.

Petalia could move. He didn't win his home county, so it's not like he needs it to win.

Iosco had to go somewhere. If not this district, than which one? My proposed map (not taking incumbents into account) is linked below.

http://wmugop.blogspot.com/2011/05/michigan-redistricting-state-house-part_08.html

ReaderDownstate said...

Conservative First, it most certainly is gerrymandered. A district that spans 240 miles one-way ... the biggest in the entire state of Michigan ... is gerrymandered. Not to mention it's not compact nor does it respect boundaries. Pettalia's district should be Alpena, Presqule Isle, Cheboygan, Montmorency and then parts of Otsego if need be. MacMaster's should be Antrim, Charlevoix, Kalkaska and part or all of Otsego.

Conservative First said...

Just because you don't like how a district was drawn doesn't mean it is gerrymandered. Google maps lists Tawas to Cheboygan as 143 miles.

It's a relatively big district because the area is sparsely populated. There is a congressional district in Arizona bigger than the state of Illinois. So what?

I'm not the biggest fan of how the district was drawn (see my map above). But keep in mind that the standards used by the legislature require minimizing splitting of counties, which restricts your options. Feel free to try your hand at it using Dave's Redistricting App, but draw the whole area, not just one or two districts.

ReaderDownstate said...

That mileage count is hardly accurate because Cheboygan isn't in the district. It goes from the Arenac/Iosco line to the Emmet/Cheboygan line. I have it at 200 miles. Pettalia's office says it's closer to 240.