Thursday, April 26, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 104 (HD-104)

State House - District 104
Current Rep - Wayne Schmidt (R - Traverse City)

GOP - Wayne Schmidt  (R-Traverse City)
Dem - Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City)

Update 5-27-2012 - The leader and publisher of Right Michigan is challenging the incumbent. Jason Gillman is going after Wayne Schmidt. Gillman's also a county commissioner up there, so he's more than just an internet activist. This will be interesting to see.

Update - 8-30-2012  - Schmidt beat a spirited challenge from Jason Gillman. Coffa won the democrat primary.

Old District (104th)
Wayne Schmidt - 23,460
John Scrudato - 10,950

This district shrunk due to population growth in Grand Traverse County. It drops Kalkaska County to the 103rd. This district is for now safe republican, but keep an eye on the suburbs of Traverse City to see if it is still the case in ten years with the transplants. The city leans democrat, although not as much as it's reputation (Ann Arbor North it isn't). It's not impossible for the GOP to win the city. The suburbs are generally safe for the GOP. McCain won the district, and nobody downticket has had problems here recently.

Grand Traverse County GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
2008 Presidential 24716 23258 47974 1458 51.52% 48.48% 3.04%
2004 Presidential 27446 18256 45702 9190 60.05% 39.95% 20.11%
Last St House 19823 9493 29316 10330 67.62% 32.38% 35.24%


ReaderDownstate said...

This will be a Democratic seat before the next redistricting. Grand Traverse has been trending Dem for a while. The local Repubs are in a civil war between tea party/social cons and what can only be described as somewhat more conservative than Bill Milliken Republicans.

Republican Michigander said...

I don't know all the dynamics there, but I'm not shocked if there's internal party troubles. Bill Milliken has pull still there, and he's to the left of Granholm.

I took a look to see where there could be potential problems in the district. I agree that it's trending dem, but even McCain won the county despite publicly announcing that he's quitting Michigan. If the suburbs start to really flip constantly, I'm going to be get worried. I can't say it will flip before redistricting, but I think there could be problems if the GOP is what I call "caught looking" aka not paying attention until it's too late.

Schmidt and Walker won everything in 2010. Aberration.

Schmidt in 08, a horrible year, won the district by 5000 votes. He lost Traverse City by 1100. He swept the townships.

Allen in 06 won the county by 5400 and Walker by 6000. Allen won all but the city. Walker lost the city and competitive Union Township which has 100 voters.

Under the worst case scenario, Obama lost the suburbs (Garfield) by close margins, took the city by 1800 votes (A blowout), and won Union Township by 4 votes. Obama lost the county by a close margin.

Garfield Township is the biggest key here. It's the largest municipality in the district. East Bay, Long Lake, Peninsula, and Green Lake are also key.

I'm real interested in the results here this year.

Blog Editor said...
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ReaderDownstate said...

What you're forgetting is that Schmidt, Allen and Walker are all moderate Republicans; perhaps even liberal. They receive a lot of Democratic support; they don't offend liberals. Only the partisan hard-left is against them. If the conservatives take hold of the G.T. GOP and the moderates lose their clout (bound to happen), it's likely these will flip. G.T. is a 50/50 area on abortion and 60/40 pro-gay.