Tuesday, May 01, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 108 (HD-108)

State House - District 108
Current Rep - Ed McBroom (R - Vulcan)

Candidates:
GOP - Ed McBroom (R-Vulcan)
Dem - Sharon Gray (D-Rapid River)


Update 5-27-2012 - Nerat wants a rematch, but will she get a chance for it?

Update 8-30-2012 - No rematch. Nerat lost to Gray in the primary.

Old District (108th)
Ed McBroom - 17,734
Judy Nerat - 11,870

This district remains unchanged by redistricting. It covers Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta Counties in the UP. It's a swing district which has flipped twice in the last decade. The GOP took it from the dems in an upset back in 2002, and lost it in 2008 to Judy Nerat, who was crushed in 2010. It was 2010, so I'm considering that an aberration. Nerat crushed the GOP for the open seat in 2008.

Obama did very well in this district in 08, much as he did in Northern Wisconsin. This part of Michigan is Green Bay Packers Country. Escanaba and Menominee are actually on Green Bay. There's more ties to Wisconsin here culturally than there is to lower Michigan. Both Northern Wisconsin and North Michigan heavily rebelled against the dems two years later in a case of anti-overreach.

Dickinson County (Kingsford/Iron Mtn) is more Republican than the rest of the district. Delta (Escanaba/Gladstone) and Menominee are swing counties in the truest sense. They voted for Bush twice and Obama, as well as Casperson, Nerat, and McBroom. Historically these counties have been labor democrat strongholds, especially Delta County. This district is one to watch in 2012. The counties here have moved away some from their historical democrat roots, but they are still very winnable for the dems if they aren't cultural leftists. This is Stupak's home area. It's also Dan Benishek's top area, and right next to his home county (Iron).

This is going to be a district to watch for a long time.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Delta County 8763 9974 18737 -1211 46.77% 53.23% -6.46%
Dickinson County 7049 5995 13044 1054 54.04% 45.96% 8.08%
Menominee County 4855 5981 10836 -1126 44.80% 55.20% -10.39%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 20667 21950 42617 -1283 48.49% 51.51% -3.01%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Delta County 9680 9381 19061 299 50.78% 49.22% 1.57%
Dickinson County 7734 5650 13384 2084 57.79% 42.21% 15.57%
Menominee County 5942 5326 11268 616 52.73% 47.27% 5.47%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 23356 20357 43713 2999 53.43% 46.57% 6.86%








Last State House GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Delta County 7431 5571 13002 1860 57.15% 42.85% 14.31%
Dickinson County 6341 3038 9379 3303 67.61% 32.39% 35.22%
Menominee County 3962 3261 7223 701 54.85% 45.15% 9.71%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 17734 11870 29604 5864 59.90% 40.10% 19.81%



No comments: