Monday, November 12, 2007

State House Preview - Livingston County

Recently we had the big announcements of Steve Williams dropping out of the race with Bill Rogers jumping in. That leads to this.

Our two state house seats will be open. Chris Ward and Joe Hune are term limited out. Valde Garcia in the state senate is also term limited out, but state senate seats are only open in gubenatorial election years.

The 47th District is Joe Hune's district. The 66th District is Chris Ward's district. The 47th has been competitive in the past during the primary while the 66th has not had a primary under its current boundaries (02-onward). Joe won by 2 votes in the 02 primary.

Some nickname the 47th the "Howell" district and the 66th the "Brighton" district, but it's not that simple. Some with Brighton addresses live in the 47th and a lot of people with Howell addresses live in the 66th. That's due the rather crazy shape of the districts. The 47th is shaped almost like a "C" with the rest of the county in the 66th District.

In the 47th we have:
Conway Township (North of Fowlerville)
Handy Township (including Fowlerville)
Iosco Township (between Fowlerville and Gregory)
Conhoctah Township (between Howell and Byron)
Howell Township
City of Howell
Unadilla Township (including Gregory)
Putnam Township (including Pinckney and Hell)
Hamburg Township (all of it - Brighton, Lakeland, Pinckney, and Hamburg portions)
Tyrone Township (near Fenton)
Deerfield Township (near Argentine)
and Hartland Township

In the 66th we have
City of Brighton
Brighton Township
Green Oak Township (Between Brighton and South Lyon)
Genoa Township (Between Howell and Brighton)
Marion Township (Between Howell and Pinckney)
and Oceola Township (Between Howell and Hartland)
The 66th also covers Milford Township in Oakland County

From a partisan standpoint, both districts have some competitive areas (Putnam Twp, Unadilla, City of Brighton, City of Howell, a couple of precincts in Hamburg and Green Oak) but are solidly republican districts. Bush won over 60% in both of them. The real competition is in the primary barring a Don Sherwood style of disaster.

In the 47th, there is mostly rumors. I think the frontrunner, if she runs, would be Cindy Denby. Cindy is the Handy Township supervisor. She's also Joe Hune's Chief of Staff up in Lansing. The reason I'd consider her the frontrunner (if she runs) is because of the experience factor, geography factor, and the fact that Joe's been a solid less government conservative. Joe didn't vote for either the tax increases, tax shifts, or the fee increases when 15 republicans including a former speaker caved to Granholm. As far as the geography factor, that worked to Joe's advantage. The Fowlerville candidate had an extremely high turnout, great organization, and got 3-1+ margins in his area - and he wasn't the only candidate to campaign out there. Joe then did well enough in Hamburg and Putnam to win.

I've heard for a couple of years that that county commissioners Don Parker and Dave Domas are considering a run. Both candidates have won tough primaries in the past and can not be counted out. Domas also was a state rep candidate in 02. If they run, I expect them to be serious candidates.

In the 66th, we have two public announcements so far. County commissioner and businessman Bill Rogers (Mike's Brother) and Chiropractor and businessman Jason Corosanite. Bill Rogers has only been in one semi-competitive race from which I can remember. That was in 02 against Democrat Irene Cahill. The final numbers wern't close, but Cahill worked hard enough to place a scare in some GOP circles. I doubt Bill forgot that, and I don't expect him to take the primary lightly. As this is my district, I'm looking to see what Bill and Jason plan on doing if they are elected. I'm particulary interested in their tax views and budgetary reforms. I've heard rumors of one, maybe two more candidates considering a run there.

Assuming Bill Rogers stays in, that also opens up a county commissioner seat, District 7. I've heard a rumor of a well known individual who might run, but I haven't confirmed one way or the other. District 7, Bill's current district, covers all of the City of Brighton, Southeastern Genoa Township (Brighton area), and Northwestern Genoa Township (Howell area). While the city of Brighton can be competitive, the parts of Genoa in this district are some of the most republican areas in the country (70%+), let alone county.

The only way I see any of these three seats being competitive outside of the party is if the candidates turn out to be real bums. I don't take anything for granted, as incumbent Don Sherwood lost a 60% Bush district by 6% due to being a piece of trash.

9 comments:

corosanite said...

Glad to see some interest in my campaign. I'd love to answer any questions you might have.

My main experience with regards to state politics is my role on the Governmental Relations Committee of my state association. I am involved on a daily basis with reading and researching bills (I get e-mail updates on all scheduled committee meetings), meet with lobbyists & legislators,and watch or attend as many scheduled sessions and committee meetings as possible. Thank goodness for House & Senate TV, otherwise I'd probably be there everyday instead of one or two days a week.

I am fiscally very conservative and was outraged that a $750 million dollar budget increase was considered a cut. I believe we need real reforms and was supportive of the Senate's cuts only solution. I'd like to see the services tax repealed without a replacement but feel there is just too much political cowardice on our side for that to happen. The House and Senate look like they are going on a two week vacation. What you will see happen when they get back is stripped out bills going into conference so Senate republicans can deny culpability. I am just sickened by all of this, as I'm sure you are, and hope to bring some integrity and accountability to the office.

Our failing economy is my single greatest concern. Right now we have about the 14th highest overall tax burden in the country and will probably be in the top ten once all of the taxes take effect. That needs to change. We also have some of the worst regulatory burdens in the country and have a hostile labor environment. By addressing those three areas, Michigan can once again become a very attractive state for employers.

Jason Corosanite

keithr said...

Jason,

Good so far. I assume you are also a social conservative. What about 2nd amendment rights, and what is your opinion on giving privilages and benefits to illegal aliens?

corosanite said...

Well, I was on the varsity rifle team in college. That's actually a funny story. It was a pharmacy school and had the #1 rifle team in the country. They even beat West Point for the MAC Air Rifle Championship. So yeah, I'm absolutely pro 2nd amendment.

I also lived in Marietta,GA for 4 years which was the town right next to Kennesaw. Kennesaw, which was where our church was, enacted a law that REQUIRED every household to have a gun. Oh, and they had one of the lowest gun crime rates in the country. I wonder why ;-)

I am pretty aggravated by the administration's position on immigration. I'm not willing to extend any rights or privileges to people who are not citizens, especially when they refuse to aknowledge that they've broken any of our laws.

Thanks for the comments!!

Communications guru said...

Are you a member of the anti-gay hate group known as "LOVE?" Do you support this group?

keithr said...

Kevin,

You think anyone who disagrees with you is a member of a "hate" group. Chill out.

Communications guru said...

I wasn’t talking to you. Here are a few more questions since the last ones were ignored. Who the hell are you? Why not answer the question? What do you call a group that discriminates against another group for no reason?

Pogo said...

Mr. Corosanite,

Good to hear from you. I look forward to learning more about your ideas and may consider supporting you in your run for office. Keep up the good work!

Don't mind Kevin Shopshire, alias "communications guru". Like many liberals he is irrational and filled with hate. As a loyal kool-aid drinker he feels compelled to try and get you to make a comment that can later be used against you in your campaign.

I'm always happy to see him blog because his writings are a reminder of how much liberals are out-of-touch with average people, giving us resolve to carry on the battle against their mindless march.

Communications guru said...

That’s almost funny. Liberals like me are average people. I served in the military and work for a living. That’s pretty average to me, at least for liberals. If you like to see me blogging so much then why don’t you come over to my blog, the Conservative Media at http://liberalmedianot.blogspot.com, and try and disprove what I write? It should be pretty easy if I’m just “irrational and filled with hate” and a “loyal kool-aid drinker” and “mindless.” The fact is you have to stoop to this name-calling because that’s all you have and that’s' the best you can do for any kind of debate on the issues.

Those are legitimate questions. In the article he brought up the book banning the anti-gay hate group pushed and embarrassed Howell, and he said he supports banning books. Is he a member, or does he support them? Pretty simple questions.

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