Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Pennsylvania Primary - Hillary stays alive, Indiana preview

Pennsylvania voted on their primary. Hillary "Raaaaaaoooooow" Clinton won 55-45% against Barack "Cling to guns and Religion" Obama. This could be a brokered convention this year. Clinton can't catch Obama without the superdelegates and Obama can't win without superdelgates. The best thing that can happen is for the two of them to continue to beat the hell out of them so bad that the base of the candidate stays home on election day.

CNN's website did a great job breaking this down. The interesting things I noticed.

1. Obama was destroyed in blue collar areas. He was shut out completely in Western Pennsylvania, even Allegheny County which has Pittsburgh. That went 54-46% Hillary. Erie County went 63-37% for Clinton. He was shut out in the blue collar Northeastern sections. Clinton's best area in the state was Scranton and Wilkes-Barre which went 75% for Hillary. Johnstown in West Central PA was 72% for Hillary. Those three areas are democrat leaning, but social conservative. Bay City is probably the closest description in this state of a similar area. Leigh Valley in the East was another key swing area and usually a bellwether for the general. Those were 60-40%.

2. Obama won 7 counties. Only 4 other counties were under 55% for Hillary. Obama's 11 best counties were.
1. Philadelphia - 65%-35% Obama - Not a surprise. Large black population, several colleges (Penn, Temple).
2. Centre County - 60%-40% - Penn State University.
3. Dauphin County - 58%-42% - Harrisburg. State Capitol with government workers, large black population.
4. Delaware County - 55%-45% - Suburban Philly. He didn't do as well here as I thought he would. Chester is in this district.
5. Chester County - 55%-45% - The only Republican County in the Philly Suburbs. The results here are somewhat surprising as he lost Montgomery and Bucks Counties. Coatesville and West Chester are the democrat bases. What I do not know is if some of this vote was a backlash against Hillary for the Bill Clinton years.
6. Lancaster County - 54%-46% - This is one of the two most Republican Counties in the state. There are really conservatives of three different minds if they want to play mischief. One is to knock out the Clintons for good. Another is to vote for the weaker opponent. Lastly is to try and get them to kick the hell out of each other (where I stand right now). To be honest, this vote does puzzle me, with similar York County next door voting differently.
7. Union County - 52%-48% - The last county Obama won. It is the home of Bucknell University.
8. Montgomery County - 51%-49% Hillary - Suburban Philly. Obama needed to win here, but didn't. I think the feminist vote did him in. This is one of the favorite counties of the NOW gang and is a haven for rich leftists.
9. Cumberland - 53%-47% Hillary - West of Harrisburg. There are several small colleges here, but I wonder if the main vote was white government workers near Harrisburg.
10. Allegheny County - 54-46% Hillary - I bet almost all of Obama's vote was in the black sections of Pittsburgh, or the university crowd there from Pitt and Carnegie Mellon. He needed to win here and didn't.
11. York County - 55%-45% Hillary - I figured York and Lancaster would vote the same way as usual. Not this time.
In no other county did Obama get 45% or more.

3. Seniors run the show. As the left loves to point out, Al Gore won the popular vote. Bush won the popular vote in 2004. Both times, it was due to the seniors. They switched their vote overall in 2004 after voting for Clinton and Gore. They were back this year, for Clinton in a big way. Exit poll data:

Those 65 and older were 22% of the vote, and voted 63%-37% for Hillary Clinton. Add in the older Baby Boomers 50-64 to the Clinton total as well. Those 50-64 were 37% of the vote and went 56%-44% for Clinton.

Seniors vote, and will probably swing the election this November more than any other demographic.

4. McCain voters - 70%-30% for Obama. Most of the "mischief" vote went for Obama, not Hillary. Does that explain Lancaster, Cumberland, and part of Chester Counties?

5. Gender gap. 41% of the vote were men. They voted for Obama 52-48%. 59% of the vote were women. They voted for Hillary 57%-43% .

So what's next?
May 3 - Indiana and North Carolina
May 13 - West Virginia,
May 20 - Kentucky and Oregon
June 1 - Puerto Rico
June 3 - Montana and South Dakota.

I think Obama should be favored in North Carolina with the large black population and number of Universities there (Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Greensboro, Durham, Winston Salem, Wilmington, Charlotte, Asheville).

Indiana is one to watch. Hillary should win it, but I'm not counting out Obama here. Indianapolis will vote for blacks, even rather leftist ones like the Carson family. Gary will vote for Obama. Bloomington will be a big base for him as well with Indiana University. The base counties for democrats in Indiana in 04 are:

1. Lake County - Gary, Hammond, East Chicago - 61% Kerry
2. Monroe - Bloomington - 54% Kerry (Flipped from Bush in 2000 who won with 52%)
3. Marion - Indianapolis - 50% Kerry (flipped from Bush in 2000 who won with 50%)
4. LaPorte - Michigan City - 50% Kerry

2000 was much more favorable presidential year to democrats in Indiana, even though there was no real contest there. Gore won:
1. Lake County - 63% Gore
2. Perry County - 52% Gore - Rural, Bush won it in 04 with 50%
3. Laporte - 50% Gore
4. Scott County - 50% Gore - Rural, Bush won it in 04 with 55%
5. St Joseph County (South Bend) - 49% Gore, Bush won it in 04 with 51%

Delaware County (Muncie/Ball State) is 48% Democrat in 2000 and could factor in this race. It was 43% Dem in 04.
Madison County (Anderson) was 45% Democrat in 2000 and 40% Dem in 04.
Porter County (Gary Suburbs) was 46% Democrat in 2000 and 45% Dem in 04.
Stark County (North Rural) was 48% Democrat in 2000 and 45% Dem in 04.
Sullivan County (SW Rural) was 46% Democrat in 2000 and 40% Dem in 04.
Vigo County (Terre Haute/Indiana State) was 49% Democrat in 2000 and 46% Dem in 04.

There are a lot of state democrats/federal republicans in Indiana, largely in the Southern rural areas, and to a lesser extent, Evansville. That area, along with the similar Cincy area, turned on Bush in 06. These areas are heavily white. What will they do? Go back to Clinton, or go with Obama? I'd keep an eye on Tippecanoe as well. That's Purdue. It was 40% Dem in both 00 and 04, but West Lafayette is a college town.

I predicted Hillary to win Penn by 5% I was off a bit and underestimated the blue collar vote. I'm going to with Hillary by 10% in Indiana, and Obama by 10% in North Carolina. Hopefully, I'm right and they split the two states. That would be best for them beating up each other.

No comments: