Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Primary Predictions 2010

I'm going to throw up a few predictions in the primaries with less than a week to go here.

GOP - Too close to call. I'm afraid Snyder may pull this off. You have three candidates running as conservatives. One liberal, and Tom George. I have not seen any of the conservatives get up and run away with this. Hoekstra is the higher up establishment choice (regardless of what is said). Cox is the conservative PAC's endorsement choice and has a lot of the gun owner support. Bouchard has a lot of the local activist support, at least in Livingston County. Snyder is one of the most opposed by all these camps. My concern is a split vote between all of them with Snyder's money taking the win with the help of Joe Schwarz types of crossovers. I don't know who's going to take this, but I think Snyder loses the general by 10-20%, to either Dillon or Bernero. So if you don't want a candidate who is not pro-life, who is unknown on most issues, who outsourced jobs to China, and who is tied with the economic liberal Center for Michigan with Phil Power, get out and vote, and not for Snyder. Vote for Mike Cox.

Dem - Virg Bernero will win. I predicted this as soon as he ran. Virg isn't that well known, but he can campaign very well and has won difficult elections in the past. The UAW is also behind him and is spending a ton of money. Three days in a row. Three Virg mailings.

Congress 1 - I think Dan Benishek will win this. Yooper geography will make the difference over Allen.
Congress 2 - I haven't followed this much, but I think Jay Riemersma may pull off the semi-upset. Outsider with name recognition from his football days. Watch the darkhorse Reichardt. He's running as the liberal Republican, and is trying to do a Joe Schwarz circa 2004 and win with 20-30%. It may be enough.
Congress 3 - Hardiman in a close battle, although Amash can win with the right turnout. I wouldn't count out Heathcock either.
Congress 7 - Walberg in a not as close as expected race. Walberg always has had the ability to get his people out to the polls.
Congress 8 - Kande the ghost beats his write-in opponent. It would take probably $300,000 for his write-in opponent to get on the ballot.
Congress 9 - Rocky's won three times in his democrat leaning state rep seat, even beating Aldo Vagnozzi there. He's a tough campaigner and will probably win.

State Senate 22 - Joe Hune should win this one 67/33. I'd say 80/20 if his opponent was named Roger Paulson instead of Paul Rogers. Joe has an almost insane campaign work ethic and fair warning to anyone, especially with a famous last name who wants to run against him. You're going to get outworked. I think Joe's hit 20,000+ doors. He's on to repeats now. The Paul Rogers campaign isn't bad against most opponents. Joe isn't most opponents, and he's sending a message to all potential opponents in what they are going to be up against if they challenge him. Best for Joe, he's sent the message without going negative, concentrating on what Joe has done and will do, not what Paul may or may not be.


Not-A-RINO said...

I have worked on Rocky's campaigns before when I lived in Farmington Hills. He is a great guy, but I think voters will give Paul Welday the nod. Welday has worked hard and has solid conservative roots. As far as beating Aldo Vagnozzi, Vagnozzi was to the left of Fidel Castro and the only reasons he ever won in the past was name recognition and it was a bad election cycle for Republicans. Had people listened to his message, I doubt if his own mother would have voted for him.

In the primary, my vote is going to Mike Bouchard. I don't like Cox and think there may be more to his past dealings with Kwame that the media hasn't reported. I may be wrong, but if you're judged by the company you keep, hanging around corrupt pols who become convicted felons isn't good.

Hoekstra supported bailouts which are as popular as fiberglass underwear. I wasn't impressed with him in the Republican debate either. Bouchard gave straight forward answers and was confident with those answers. The truth be told, ANY Republican is better than the twit we have occupying the governor's office now!

Michael said...