Congressional District 12 - Redistricted (MI-12)

Incumbent - John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 57
The old 12th district information is here.
This district is descended from the old 15th district.

Challengers -  Cynthia Kallgren (R-Wyandotte)

Updated 8-30-2012 - Kallgren won her primary. Dingell won his. 

Update 5-16-2012 - This could be interesting to watch. Marcin is a 26 year old East Coast transplant to Ann Arbor where he's a grad student. Ann Arbor (and east coast) dems are a different culture than the Downriver/Dearborn labor democrats which Dingell represents. One of the big clashes is on the auto industry. Jacobsen seems to be giving this a district an actual campaign, much like Dr Rob Steele did in 2010. The problem for Jacobsen is no Monroe County to help if it swings against the dems like it did in 2010. The rest of downriver is tougher territory. Romulus and Inkster are gone though which helps.

Michigan lost a congressional district, so there is no more 15th district. The old 15th district is basically now the 12th. What is mostly the old 12th district is now the 9th. I'm going to analyze this district as it is came from the 15th. This is still John Dingell's district.

This district is similar, although it changed some. It gave up Augusta and York Townships, as well as the City of Milan to Tim Walberg. It picks up 1/2 of Scio Township instead. That's the change in Washtenaw County. Monroe County goes to Walberg. In Wayne county, almost all of downriver goes back to Dingell outside of Melvindale, River Rouge, and Ecorse. He also gets the rest of Dearborn. Romulus and Inkster go to Hansen Clarke. He picks up Van Buren Twp and Belleville from Thad McCotter. This is "new territory" for the district, but not for Dingell who represented downriver for years.  This district is also a lot bluer. Monroe County was a swing area and it's gone. Downriver is mostly democrat, and the added portions to this district like Eastern Dearborn, Lincoln Park and Southgate are blue sinks. The old district had about a 73000 vote spread for Kerry and 115000 for Obama. The new district was about 81000 and 122000. Rob Steele gave Dingell his toughest test in years, but lost his best area and has about a 32000 vote deficit in the new region. I didn't include the small Dearborn Heights portion since about 90% of it is in Clarke's district.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	10712	51587	62299	-40875	17.19%	82.81%	-65.61%
Ann Arbor Twp	829	1836	2665	-1007	31.11%	68.89%	-37.79%
Pittsfield Twp	5042	11342	16384	-6300	30.77%	69.23%	-38.45%
Scio Twp (1/2)	1886	3355	5241	-1469	35.99%	64.01%	-28.03%
Superior Twp	2048	4951	6999	-2903	29.26%	70.74%	-41.48%
Ypsilanti City	1308	7828	9136	-6520	14.32%	85.68%	-71.37%
Ypsilanti Twp	6517	19579	26096	-13062	24.97%	75.03%	-50.05%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park	6941	8705	15646	-1764	44.36%	55.64%	-11.27%
Belleville City	733	1315	2048	-582	35.79%	64.21%	-28.42%
Brownstown Twp	5373	8668	14041	-3295	38.27%	61.73%	-23.47%
Dearborn	13761	27253	41014	-13492	33.55%	66.45%	-32.90%
Flat Rock	1807	2504	4311	-697	41.92%	58.08%	-16.17%
Gibralter	1132	1313	2445	-181	46.30%	53.70%	-7.40%
Grosse Ile	4023	2859	6882	1164	58.46%	41.54%	16.91%
Huron Twp	3669	3852	7521	-183	48.78%	51.22%	-2.43%
Lincoln Park	5080	10848	15928	-5768	31.89%	68.11%	-36.21%
Riverview	2652	3832	6484	-1180	40.90%	59.10%	-18.20%
Rockwood	678	900	1578	-222	42.97%	57.03%	-14.07%
Southgate	5509	9500	15009	-3991	36.70%	63.30%	-26.59%
Sumpter Twp	1696	2961	4657	-1265	36.42%	63.58%	-27.16%
Taylor	9224	17264	26488	-8040	34.82%	65.18%	-30.35%
Trenton	4908	5957	10865	-1049	45.17%	54.83%	-9.65%
Van Buren Twp	4375	9703	14078	-5328	31.08%	68.92%	-37.85%
Woodhaven	2836	3781	6617	-945	42.86%	57.14%	-14.28%
Wyandotte	4822	8200	13022	-3378	37.03%	62.97%	-25.94%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	107561	229893	337454	-122332	31.87%	68.13%	-36.25%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	13153	45117	58270	-31964	22.57%	77.43%	-54.85%
Ann Arbor Twp	1083	1787	2870	-704	37.74%	62.26%	-24.53%
Pittsfield Twp	5839	9271	15110	-3432	38.64%	61.36%	-22.71%
Scio Twp (1/2)	2122	3132	5254	-1010	40.39%	59.61%	-19.22%
Superior Twp	2227	3948	6175	-1721	36.06%	63.94%	-27.87%
Ypsilanti City	1581	6046	7627	-4465	20.73%	79.27%	-58.54%
Ypsilanti Twp	7887	16240	24127	-8353	32.69%	67.31%	-34.62%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park	7738	8575	16313	-837	47.43%	52.57%	-5.13%
Belleville City	856	1131	1987	-275	43.08%	56.92%	-13.84%
Brownstown Twp	5369	6916	12285	-1547	43.70%	56.30%	-12.59%
Dearborn	16686	24456	41142	-7770	40.56%	59.44%	-18.89%
Flat Rock	1917	2233	4150	-316	46.19%	53.81%	-7.61%
Gibralter	1186	1271	2457	-85	48.27%	51.73%	-3.46%
Grosse Ile	4435	2594	7029	1841	63.10%	36.90%	26.19%
Huron Twp	3578	3417	6995	161	51.15%	48.85%	2.30%
Lincoln Park	5843	10921	16764	-5078	34.85%	65.15%	-30.29%
Riverview	3095	3665	6760	-570	45.78%	54.22%	-8.43%
Rockwood	759	948	1707	-189	44.46%	55.54%	-11.07%
Southgate	6048	9046	15094	-2998	40.07%	59.93%	-19.86%
Sumpter Twp	1979	2963	4942	-984	40.04%	59.96%	-19.91%
Taylor	10444	16377	26821	-5933	38.94%	61.06%	-22.12%
Trenton	5495	5778	11273	-283	48.74%	51.26%	-2.51%
Van Buren Twp	4993	7353	12346	-2360	40.44%	59.56%	-19.12%
Woodhaven	3076	3380	6456	-304	47.65%	52.35%	-4.71%
Wyandotte	5451	7935	13386	-2484	40.72%	59.28%	-18.56%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	122840	204500	327340	-81660	37.53%	62.47%	-24.95%
	Steele	Dingell	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ann Arbor City	8242	28027	36269	-19785	22.72%	77.28%	-54.55%
Ann Arbor Twp	783	1133	1916	-350	40.87%	59.13%	-18.27%
Pittsfield Twp	4264	5815	10079	-1551	42.31%	57.69%	-15.39%
Scio Twp (1/2)	154	177	331	-23	46.53%	53.47%	-6.95%
Superior Twp	1864	2800	4664	-936	39.97%	60.03%	-20.07%
Ypsilanti City	942	3655	4597	-2713	20.49%	79.51%	-59.02%
Ypsilanti Twp	5108	10379	15487	-5271	32.98%	67.02%	-34.03%
Wayne County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Allen Park			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Belleville City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Twp	4058	4232	8290	-174	48.95%	51.05%	-2.10%
Dearborn	6455	6353	12808	102	50.40%	49.60%	0.80%
Flat Rock	1351	1274	2625	77	51.47%	48.53%	2.93%
Gibralter			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grosse Ile			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Huron Twp	2839	1956	4795	883	59.21%	40.79%	18.42%
Lincoln Park			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Riverview			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Rockwood	484	533	1017	-49	47.59%	52.41%	-4.82%
Southgate			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sumpter Twp	1218	1495	2713	-277	44.89%	55.11%	-10.21%
Taylor	6034	8512	14546	-2478	41.48%	58.52%	-17.04%
Trenton			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Van Buren Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Woodhaven			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Wyandotte			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	43796	76341	120137	-32545	36.46%	63.54%	-27.09%

Areas to watch in Michigan for Election Day Results

Who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. Here's the current score. 0-0. All of the state level seats are up for contest, except some trustee and judicial seats.

We're playing offense on the state house a mix of offense and defense on the state senate, as well as the statewide and congressional seats. All of the areas are important, but there are a few counties to keep an eye on for the seats in play.

1. Parts of the UP, particularly Chippewa, Mackinac, Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, and Iron Counties. Those are competitive counties, but three seats, maybe four or five if we're super lucky, are in play up there. Dan Benishek in MI-01, Tom Casperson for State Senate in the 38th district, and possibly three state rep seats up there, although I think we have a good chance at one of them. Iron County leans slightly democrat, but Benishek is from there. Chippewa and Mackinac slightly Republican, but McDowell's from there. The triangle of Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta counties swing the UP, and will be the biggest factor in who wins this congressional district. I think Beniskek wins this seat narrowly. 49-47-5 for 3rd parties.

2. Kent County. We have a tough defense for state senate here and a darkhorse defense for Ehlers seat. Some of the old time Kent County establishment Republicans are often "different" and are much more liberal (outside the life issue) than the average population. It's not an accident than Kent County local government has been one of the five most anti-gun counties in the state. The establishment there is rather hostile to small l libertarianism. That is making it more difficult than the past for this defense. I think this year though was the right year for a principled libertarian-conservative like Justin Amash. He's getting a battle in the general, although his convincing primary win sent a strong message to the establishment there. The people are in charge, not the self-proclaimed elite. I think Amash wins by 10-15% (my gut feeling, no poll evidence). It's not Ehlers numbers, but it'll be in line with an average top of the ticket (Snyder should do better here - 25% win there since he'll get the Ehlers type votes as well as conservatives because of Virg). I think 08's an aberration. I do think Amash does better in Barry and Ionia County though, than Kent County. We need a 60% win though for Johnson and Schuette.

3. Jackson County. Jackson County is what I'd classify as conservative independent. It's important statewide. It's populist, socially conservative, and distrustful of both big government and big business. It has both democrat strongholds (City of Jackson) and republican strongholds (Spring Arbor), but even in those strongholds, there's a lot of independents. As Jackson County goes, usually so does the 7th Congressional district. Jackson voted against the incumbent in 2006 primary and in 2008. Can Walberg win back Jackson County? If he does, he'll likely win. If not, Schauer will survive. There's also two key state rep districts based in Jackson County. Those will be key if the GOP is taking back the house. 55%+ would be real good.

4. Monroe County. It's a swing County that voted for Gore, Posthumus, Bush, Granholm, and Obama. Dingell's won there with big margins as well. If Dr Rob Steele (best candidate in a long time) is going to upset Dingell, he'll need to get big numbers in this part of the district, probably close to 60%. There's also two potentially competitive state rep districts here too. It's a must win county statewide. 53% would be real good.

5. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Waterford, Royal Oak, Clawson. Those are all key in Oakland County. If Royal Oak and West Bloomfield are close (I expect them to stay dem, but to what degree), we could be looking at blowouts and you can say an early congratulations to Congressman Rocky, and one if not two new GOP state reps. If Farmington Hills and Clawson is close (if they're going GOP, Rocky wins), it could be a long night with potential recounts, but promising results for Rocky (he'll need big help from Troy then). If Waterford is more populist and close, but has trended GOP lately outside of the 06/08 disasters. I'd like to see a win in Farmington Hills, 46%+ in West Bloomfield, 54%+ in Waterford, 46%+ in Royal Oak, and a win in Clawson. I think any of those will assure a pickup.

6. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, St Clair Shores. Those are three of the key areas in Macomb County. Those will determine who wins Macomb County overall, and in Clinton Twp's case, probably who'll take the state. There's three, maybe four if lucky, competitive state rep districts there. There's a fifth competitive seat in North Macomb that was lost in the 2008 clustermuck (Despite McCain winning the district). That one should be ours. I'd like to see 53%+ in S. Heights, and a win of any margin in Clinton Township and St Clair Shores

7. Lake Michigan Coast - Can we stop the 06/08 bleeding there. If so, bye Dan Scripps. Those should be 54%+ GOP counties from Oceana up to Leelanau. Benzie's the toughest.

8. Thumb, especially Tuscola and Huron Counties - This conservative populist area is extremely independent and loyal to no party. Even some 60% GOP areas at the top of the ticket will ticket split. Sanillac County's rep should flip with locally popular Espinoza termed out. Mike Green is the best candidate for the state senate district. He'll have to rack up big numbers in the thumb to counter Bay County, home of the populist socially moderate democrats. Green (best) can exceed Mayes (good) on the gun issue, and he's also carried a union card. This may be a pickup. We may take Terry Brown's seat as well, although that won't be easy. Like the sunrise coast and the UP, the top of the ticket doesn't tell the story here.

9. Western/Southernmost Wayne County. Two state senate seats and three state rep seats are up for grabs. Keep an eye on Canton Twp (Swings), Van Buren Twp (Dem leaning), Plymouth (city swings, Twp GOP), Northville, Wayne (dem, but by how much), Westland (dem, by how much), Garden City (dem, by how much) Livonia (slight GOP lean), Trenton (slight dem), Huron Twp (swing) and Gibraltar (slight dem). If any of those "dem by how much" areas are close or slight dem areas flipping, there will be some pickups. I'd like to see 54%+ in Canton, any win in Van Buren Twp, 60%+ in Plymouth Twp, 52%+ in Plymouth City, 60%+ in Northville, 42%+ in Wayne, 43%+ in Westland, 48%+ in Garden City, 55%+ in Livonia, any win in Trenton, 52%+ in Huron Twp, and any win in Gibralter.

10. Sunrise Coast - There's a string of swing counties from Presque Isle and Alpena down the Lake Huron Coast and over to the Saginaw Bay/West Branch area. Clare and Roscommon Counties aren't part of this area geographically, but are attached to the state rep districts here and are similar in politics. Populist. We have a tough defense (Tim Moore's open seat) and a longshot (due to the Sheltrown name) pickup opportunity here, along with the Alpena based open seat that's been close but democrat for several years. There's a darkhorse defense for state senate as well that I'm not ready to put in the safe column yet.

11. Isabella County. Probably on paper, our toughest state rep defense. Mt Pleasant is soldly dem, and the surrounding area is marginally republican. Any win in Isabella County is a positive. Rural Midland gives us a small cushion to work with for the state rep district.

12. Rural Washtenaw County. Implications for Tim Walberg, Dr Rob Steele, and an open state rep seat which is a tough offense. The swing townships in Walberg's district are Northfield, Manchester, Saline (city), Sylvan, and Dexter. Scio is a democrat stronghold, and Salem a Republican one. If the swing areas go our way along with big numbers in Manchester (or losses cut in Scio Twp), we have a shot at picking up the Byrnes seat, along with a sure thing with the Walberg seat as this is his weaker area.

13. Eaton County - Very difficult to read. Blue steak in 02, 06, and 08, but a red streak in 2004. A lot of state workers live here, although it's much more conservative socially than Ingham County next door. However, it's got a strong labor streak. The state rep district is a potentially tough defense, and Walberg's economic libertarianism didn't sell here twice, although his social views are more of a positive here outside of maybe Delta Township. This will be interesting to watch.

14. Van Buren County - Classic Swing County with state rep, state senate, and statewide implications. Must win for all of them.

15. Saginaw, Bay, Clinton, St Clair, Counties. If democrats lose Saginaw and Bay Counties (Dem lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts. If the GOP loses Clinton and St Clair Counties (GOP lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts.

Locally, Hamburg Township, City of Howell, Green Oak Township, Putnam Township, City of Brighton. If the democrats want to take any commissioner or state rep seats, they'll have to win all of those areas and win them big (better than 06 or 08). Not this year. If Cindy Denby keeps it even, let alone a win, in Howell City, Putnam Township, or Hamburg Township (marginal areas), it's over. Post won't break 40% in the Fowlerville or Hartland areas. $30,000+ down the drain for Post. Same goes for Tianen in Putnam Twp who won't come close in Marion Township. I've only seen one McBride sign in Green Oak at the home of democrat activists. Jack LaBelle doesn't campaign much, but people have voted for him for years, and he gets a lot of crossover and independent votes, which is important in marginal Green Oak. I haven't seen anything in the Hamburg commissioner district, and that's the least Republican. Kelly Raskauskas is running an aggressive race, but even in the Obama year, that was a 55% GOP district (62%+ in 04) due to most of Genoa Township in that district. I think this will be Irene Cahill v Bill Rogers 2.0 (from 2002) in results. As someone who has lived most of his life in that district, I called that race a pipedream in May. I still think it is.

Countywide, I'll be quite unhappy if Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson don't break 63%. Around that number is a magic number for statewide wins. I'd like to see Denby and both of the Rogers brothers to break 65%, and I expect a clean sweep of the commissioner seats. I thought two districts were winnable for the dems this year, but their strongest candidates are in two of the stronger GOP districts. Morris is probably the strongest as a candidate (probably most electable of the bunch), but his district is one of the two most GOP. Raskauskas is the 2nd strongest (Best organized, but not moderate enough). If either ran in Hamburg, I'd be concerned. Still, I wouldn't grade their electability in the range of the late Jake Donahue (who won), Robert Reddinger (who almost won in a conservative area), or even in Matt Evans range (ran ahead of the top of the ticket). Garry Post concerned me with his money. A moderate like Matt Evans or most of all, Robert Reddinger with $40,000 to spend and Raskauskas's organizational ability wouldn't concern me. It would scare me, especially if they kept Judy Daubenmeier in check.

Countywide, 63% is the magic number to watch for the statewide seats. We'll be in good shape to win if that's the number.

Dingell trailing in new poll

As I said earlier, I'll believe it when I see it, but Dingell is trailing 44-40 in this new poll by Rossman. It's generally a 60% Democrat district, so I'll be shocked if Dingell loses, but if Dingell is trailing in a district with Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, Romulus, and Inkster in it, what does that say about the state of the dems in Michigan? I'd like to see a poll of the Kildee-Kupiec race and Levin-Volaric race as well, both of which have similar percentages of democrats as this Dingell district.

Dr. Rob Steele may have a shot at this, especially with Snyder on the ballot. I'm not a big Snyder guy, but he is from Dingell's district and will do better than most republicans in Washtenaw County.

If this is really the case, then we are looking at another 1994

I'm not sold yet on this being a 1994 type year, and I have an "I'll believe it when I see it" view on this poll, but I got this in an email.

If Election was held today:

John Dingell - 51%
Rob Steele - 42%

If those numbers are true, than this is a winnable district with the right turnout. I have heard of a lot of discontent though in this district, even in Ypsilanti of all places. Ypsi is the 2nd most democrat part of the district outside of Inkster. There was a five way primary for this seat. That alone tells me there is some discontent.

Again, I'll believe it with Dingell when I see it since this district is normally 62-38 at the top of the ticket. The only one to win it somewhat recently was Engler against Fieger. Is the anti-incumbency movement strong enough to beat the guy who always survives, and survived 1994 easily despite having a potentially competitive (in the right year) district in the 90's.

Rick Snyder may help in the Washtenaw County portion, although he could hurt the ticket downriver. Dr. Rob Steele is probably the best candidate Dingell's faced since 94.

Dingell's weakest numbers were in 94, 96, and 92. 59%, 62%, and 65%. The old district was strictly most of downriver and Monroe and going off memory, was I believe a 53% Gore district. The current district was 60% Gore.

It would take a Scott Brown type of effort to beat Dingell, a lot of hard work and a lot of help. I said that I'd believe Massachusetts would vote for a Republican Senator when I see it. I saw it.

Monroe County is winnable. Bush won it. Bush won Dearborn in 2000. I'll be shocked if Dingell loses there. That's his home. If Dr. Steele can do the impossible and cut his losses in Ypsi and Ann Arbor, while winning Monroe and Huron township and the Washtenaw townships big, and some of the more competitive areas downriver, it's possible. If, if, and if. If Scott Brown can somehow win Quincy...

In reality, this should be close, and polling now has it close for this district.

Filing Deadline Passes - Preliminary Report (Unofficial) - Primary 2010

The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 primary. It was at 4PM. There may be some paperwork going between the clerks and the Secretary of State Office, but here's a presumptive list of who is in and out from the Secretary of State


The Gubernatorial Candidates are:
GOP - Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder. There was talk about a couple of other longshots, but it's not happening. The petition requirements was the first elimination bout.

DEM - Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero. Alma Wheeler Smith dropped out. Geoff Fieger said he wasn't running. No Bob Bowman or anybody else.

It's a two way primary for the dems and a five way primary for the GOP

I'll update the congressional districts again when I have a chance to list who is in/out. It looks like we'll be seeing:

1st District (MI-01) - Open seat
GOP - Six way primary between Jason Allen, Dan Benishek, Patrick Donlon, Linda Goldthorpe, Don Hooper, and Tom Stillings.

Dem - Gary McDowell. I don't see Matt Gillard there. If McDowell has a free pass, this could be trouble for us. Major coup for McDowell (who is Stupak's guy) if he avoids a primary.


2nd District (MI-02) - Open seat
GOP - Seven way primary between Bill Cooper, Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Chris Larson, Field Reichardt, Jay Riemersma, and Ted Schendel.

Dem - Primary between Fred Johnson and Nicolette McClure.

Interesting matchups for the primary here. Holland dominates the district for the GOP. Muskegon dominates for the dems, but no Muskegon democrat is running. All of the GOP candidates are from Holland except Bill Cooper (Muskegon County) and Ted Schendel from Benzie County. For the dems, Fred Johnson is from Holland and McClure is from Lake County.

3rd District (MI-03) - Open Seat

GOP - Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, Steven Heacock, Louise Johnson, and Bob Overbeek

Dem - Paul Mayhue and Pat Miles

The interesting this here is does Grand Rapids follow the "It's his turn" format as it has done for years. It looks like the "his turn" views are split between Hardiman and Heacock. That leaves an opening for Amash who is the upstart who may cause an upset.

4th District (MI-04) - Incumbent Dave Camp

GOP - Dave Camp of Midland
Dem - Jerry Campbell of St Helen

5th District (MI-05 ) - Incumbent Dale Kildee
GOP - John Kupiec and Rick Wilson, both of Grand Blanc
Dem - Dale Kildee of Flint and Scott Withers of Vassar

I don't see how a primary challenge from Tuscola County will be a big threat to Kildee, who is probably the most popular pol in Flint. One thing to watch however is the UAW membership and their response to Obama's health care takeover. A lot of the retirees and workers are scared to death about the UAW putting them all on the government plan.

6th District (MI-06) - Incumbent Fred Upton

GOP - Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo and Fred Upton of St Joe
Dem - Don Cooney of Kalamazoo

This will be interesting. Upton has had issues with his right flank in the past, and this is the year of the anti-incumbent as Bob Bennett in Utah showed. Jack Hoogendyk has a lot of grass roots support and may actually pull this off if he gets traction. Cooney is stronger than most democrats on the congressional level in this district. Don't sleep on him either.

7th District (MI-07) - Incumbent Mark Schauer

GOP - Marvin Carlson of Manchester, Brian Rooney of Dexter, and Tim Walberg of Tipton
Dem - Mark Schauer of Battle Creek

This is the best chance of a pickup among the GOP. Rooney just moved to the district, but does have an interesting background with pro-life organizations and backstory, the Steelers, and his Iraq service. Carlson is a businessman. Walberg is a conservative's conservative and has proven it over a period of years, and always gets more support than polling and finances suggest. Walberg did what no one has done yet, defeated Doug Spade. He would have won if the NRCC didn't abandon him in 08.

8th District - Incumbent Mike Rogers
GOP - Mike Rogers of Brighton/Howell
Dem - Kande Ngalamulume of Lansing

Blue Cross Kande vs Mike.

9th District - Incumbent Gary Peters

GOP - Anna Janek of West Bloomfield, Richard Kuhn of Waterford, Andrew Rocky Raczkowski of Farmington Hills, Paul Welday of Farmington Hills.

Dem - Gary Peters

This is our 2nd best shot for a pickup after the 7th. Peters is a 1st term incumbent who was a complete yesman without an original thought. What Pelosi wanted, Peters delivered, including Cap and Trade along with Obama's health care takeover in a district which was HQ for Chrysler, and has a GM plant.

10th District - Incumbent Candice Miller

GOP - Candice Miller of Harrison Township
Dem - Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights

11th District - Incumbent Thad McCotter
GOP - Thad McCotter of Livonia
Dem - Natalie Mosher of Canton

This is one to watch for defense purposes. McCotter had a tough go in 08, despite running way ahead of the top of the ticket.

12th District - Incumbent Sander Levin
GOP - Don Volaric of Clinton Township
Dem - Sander Levin or Royal Oak and Mickey Switalski of Roseville

This is interesting for two reasons. Levin has his toughest primary in ages. Switalski has won a ton of races in Macomb County. As Michigan lost a congressional seat, Levin's district had to be pushed further into Macomb County, which isn't his main territory. Can Volaric take advantage of that?

13th District - Incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
GOP - John Hauler of Grosse Pointe Woods
Dem - Vincent Brown of Garden City?(Garden City is in the 11th), Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume, and Carolyn Kilpatrick, and Glenn Plummer of Detroit.

Kilpatrick is in big trouble this August. If it wasn't for straight ticket voting, I'd give Hauler a 35% shot in the general for "Bill Jefferson" reasons, but the straight ticket zombies who don't even read the ballot make it about a 5% shot for a pickup.

14th District - Incumbent John Conyers
GOP - Pauline Montie of Southgate
Dem - John Conyers of Detroit

I figured someone would take on Conyers in the primary after his wife making the news as a city councilcritter. The straight ticket zombies rule applies here too, as it does in the 13th district (and 5th, 12th, and 15th for that matter)

15th District - Incumbent John Dingell
GOP - Tony Amorose of Southgate, John Lynch of Ypsilanti, John Materyn of Brownstown Township, Majed Moughni of Dearborn, and Rob Steele of Ypsi
Dem - John Dingell of Dearborn.

I'm a bit surprised at a five way primary here. Maybe something is bursting in this district as blowback against the Ann Arbor leftists.

Closer to home in Livingston County, these are the presumed matchups:

State Senate 22nd District - Open
GOP - Joe Hune v Paul Rogers
Dem - Chuck Fellows

State Rep 47th District - Incumbent Cindy Denby
GOP - Cindy Denby
Dem - Garry Post

State Rep 66th District - Incumbent Bill Rogers
GOP - Bill Rogers
Dem - James Delcamp

County Commissioners
District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Incumbent Maggie Jones
GOP - Maggie Jones and Nancy Hill
Dem - None

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Incumbent Jim Mantey
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Incumbent Dave Domas
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten
Unopposed

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
Incumbent - Steve Williams
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

Judges - No opposition.

I'll take a closer look at the county commissioner and local races as time goes by, but here's the unofficial final list after the filing deadline.

Michigan 15th District (MI-15) Updated

Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 15th District - Congress

Incumbent - John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 55
Cook District Numbers - D+13

GOP Candidates - Rob Steele

Dem Candidate - John Dingell

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 66%
McCain - 32%

2004:
Kerry - 62%
Bush - 38%

2000
Gore - 60%
Bush - 38%

This district was created to combine two democrat incumbents at the time.Lynn Rivers represented Ann  Arbor, Ypsilanti, and Western Wayne County. John Dingell represented southern Wayne County and Monroe County. The primary pitted two different styles of democrats. The populist labor friend of the auto industry which dominates suburban Wayne County,  and the feminist, green, anti-gunner which dominates the Ann Arbor area. Dingell won, and showed that at then 76 years of age in 2002, he could still campaign with the best of them. Dingell's been in office for 55 years. He originally represented part of the City of Detroit. Now his district is based in part of Downriver.

This district covers all of Monroe County. It also covers in Washtenaw County - The City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, Augusta Township, City of Milan, Pittsfield Township, part of Scio Township, Superior Township, York Township, the City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Township. In Wayne County, it covers Brownstown Township, Part of Dearborn, Part of Dearborn Heights, Flat Rock, Huron Township, Inkster, Rockwood,  Romulus, Sumpter Township, Taylor, and Woodhaven. Most of this area votes for democrats, although Monroe County, Augusta Twp, York Twp, Huron Twp, Flat Rock, and Woodhaven is sometimes competitive. It would take a 1994 type of year to win this district. John Engler did it though, possibly twice.

Here's Dingell's 2008 numbers.

2008 Elections	Lynch	Dingell	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	27,428	45,890	2829	76,147	-18462	36.02%	60.27%	-24.25%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	10,300	46,520	3275	60,095	-36220	17.14%	77.41%	-60.27%
Ann Arbor Township	769	1,768	78	2,615	-999	29.41%	67.61%	-38.20%
Augusta Township	1,127	2,104	177	3,408	-977	33.07%	61.74%	-28.67%
City of Milan	678	1,118	100	1,896	-440	35.76%	58.97%	-23.21%
Pittsfield Township	4,563	10,743	677	15,983	-6180	28.55%	67.22%	-38.67%
Scio Township (4)	41	115	2	158	-74	25.95%	72.78%	-46.84%
Scio Township (7)		2		2	-2	0.00%	100.00%	-100.00%
Scio Township (8)	72	135	5	212	-63	33.96%	63.68%	-29.72%
Scio Township (9)	5	22	4	31	-17	16.13%	70.97%	-54.84%
Superior Township	1,848	4,790	247	6,885	-2942	26.84%	69.57%	-42.73%
York Township	1,981	1,979	173	4,133	2	47.93%	47.88%	0.05%
City of Ypsilanti	1,170	7,185	638	8,993	-6015	13.01%	79.90%	-66.89%
Ypsilanti Township	5,425	19,017	1111	25,553	-13592	21.23%	74.42%	-53.19%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	3,658	9,580	443	13,681	-5922	26.74%	70.02%	-43.29%
City of Dearborn	5,581	12,242	781	18,604	-6661	30.00%	65.80%	-35.80%
Dearborn Heights	4,660	13,465	757	18,882	-8805	24.68%	71.31%	-46.63%
City of Flat Rock	1,220	2,859	170	4,249	-1639	28.71%	67.29%	-38.57%
Huron Township	2,506	4,504	347	7,357	-1998	34.06%	61.22%	-27.16%
City of Inkster	561	11,059	270	11,890	-10498	4.72%	93.01%	-88.29%
City of Rockwood	435	1,064	55	1,554	-629	27.99%	68.47%	-40.48%
City of Romulus	1,605	9,335	426	11,366	-7730	14.12%	82.13%	-68.01%
Sumpter Township	1,194	3,096	249	4,539	-1902	26.31%	68.21%	-41.90%
City of Taylor	5,750	18,937	1294	25,981	-13187	22.13%	72.89%	-50.76%
City of Woodhaven	1,925	4,265	227	6,417	-2340	30.00%	66.46%	-36.47%
Total	84,502	231,794	14,335	330,631	-147292	25.56%	70.11%	-44.55%

Here's the Presidential numbers broken down by county in the district. I skipped the Scio Township numbers since they were so insignificant parts of a precinct. That means these numbers are more democrat, while the 7th District numbers are slightly more republican.


Monroe County
2000 - Gore 51.07%, Bush 46.84%, 61,785 votes, -2615 vote spread
2004 - Bush 50.54%, Kerry 48.68%, 74,132 votes, 1381 vote spread
2008 - Obama 51.27%, McCain 46.92%, 73502 votes, -3322 vote spread

Washtenaw County Portion
2000 - Gore 67.84%, Bush 30.80%, 105530 votes, -35953 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 69.62%, Bush 29.29%, 124181 votes, -50083 vote spread
2008 - Obama 75.64%, McCain 22.99%, 135100 votes, -71129 vote spread

Wayne County Portion
2000 - Gore 60.12%, Bush 37.56%, 95,965 votes, -21643 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 60.29%, Bush 38.87%, 115802 votes, -24800 vote spread
2008 - Obama 64.29%, McCain 33.98%, 129,313 votes -39191 vote spread.

Here's the 2000 numbers. Surprisingly today, Bush actually won normally democrat Dearborn that year. I think Joe Lieberman may have something to do with that. It's flipped in a big way since then, going back to its roots (Dingell's represented Dearborn since 1966) after the Iraq war.

2000 Elections	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	28,940	31,555	1290	61,785	-2615	46.84%	51.07%	-4.23%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	13,473	36,597	2826	52,896	-23124	25.47%	69.19%	-43.72%
Ann Arbor Township	1,167	1,491	79	2,737	-324	42.64%	54.48%	-11.84%
Augusta Township	1,037	1,201	89	2,327	-164	44.56%	51.61%	-7.05%
City of Milan	656	735	28	1,419	-79	46.23%	51.80%	-5.57%
Pittsfield Township	5,183	6,833	390	12,406	-1650	41.78%	55.08%	-13.30%
Scio Township (4)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Superior Township	1,704	2,973	132	4,809	-1269	35.43%	61.82%	-26.39%
York Township	1,740	1,291	87	3,118	449	55.81%	41.40%	14.40%
City of Ypsilanti	1,459	4,681	365	6,505	-3222	22.43%	71.96%	-49.53%
Ypsilanti Township	6,088	12,658	567	19,313	-6570	31.52%	65.54%	-34.02%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	3,412	4,944	191	8,547	-1532	39.92%	57.84%	-17.92%
City of Dearborn				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D31	253	237	20	510	16	49.61%	46.47%	3.14%
D32	284	249	18	551	35	51.54%	45.19%	6.35%
D33	320	300	18	638	20	50.16%	47.02%	3.13%
D34	350	285	26	661	65	52.95%	43.12%	9.83%
D35	266	188	10	464	78	57.33%	40.52%	16.81%
D36	180	148	7	335	32	53.73%	44.18%	9.55%
D37	156	161	10	327	-5	47.71%	49.24%	-1.53%
D38	158	145	15	318	13	49.69%	45.60%	4.09%
D39	213	133	12	358	80	59.50%	37.15%	22.35%
D40	263	201	13	477	62	55.14%	42.14%	13.00%
D41	278	137	7	422	141	65.88%	32.46%	33.41%
D42	377	213	15	605	164	62.31%	35.21%	27.11%
D43	246	216	13	475	30	51.79%	45.47%	6.32%
D44	295	219	20	534	76	55.24%	41.01%	14.23%
D45	230	181	13	424	49	54.25%	42.69%	11.56%
D46	296	125	14	435	171	68.05%	28.74%	39.31%
D47	231	201	20	452	30	51.11%	44.47%	6.64%
D48	226	155	14	395	71	57.22%	39.24%	17.97%
D49	153	163	14	330	-10	46.36%	49.39%	-3.03%
D50	100	155	10	265	-55	37.74%	58.49%	-20.75%
D955				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D956				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D957				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D958				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Dearborn Heights	11,049	12,574	757	24,380	-1525	45.32%	51.58%	-6.26%
DH 6	-158	-196	-16	(370)	38	42.70%	52.97%	-10.27%
DH7	-266	-290	-19	(575)	24	46.26%	50.43%	-4.17%
DH8	-268	-227	-12	(507)	-41	52.86%	44.77%	8.09%
DH9	-181	-227	-15	(423)	46	42.79%	53.66%	-10.87%
DH10	-160	-218	-14	(392)	58	40.82%	55.61%	-14.80%
DH11	-206	-221	-15	(442)	15	46.61%	50.00%	-3.39%
DH12	-187	-297	-11	(495)	110	37.78%	60.00%	-22.22%
DH13	-267	-262	-12	(541)	-5	49.35%	48.43%	0.92%
DH37	-113	-235	-9	(357)	122	31.65%	65.83%	-34.17%
DH38	-216	-246	-12	(474)	30	45.57%	51.90%	-6.33%
DH941	-409	-478	-21	(908)	69	45.04%	52.64%	-7.60%
DH942	-20	-38		(58)	18	34.48%	65.52%	-31.03%
City of Flat Rock	1,259	1,769	71	3,099	-510	40.63%	57.08%	-16.46%
Huron Township	2,602	3,053	120	5,775	-451	45.06%	52.87%	-7.81%
City of Inkster	976	8,210	102	9,288	-7234	10.51%	88.39%	-77.89%
City of Rockwood	609	870	42	1,521	-261	40.04%	57.20%	-17.16%
City of Romulus	2,106	5,930	164	8,200	-3824	25.68%	72.32%	-46.63%
Sumpter Township	1,467	2,563	69	4,099	-1096	35.79%	62.53%	-26.74%
City of Taylor	7,718	13,708	488	21,914	-5990	35.22%	62.55%	-27.33%
City of Woodhaven	2,427	3,194	87	5,708	-767	42.52%	55.96%	-13.44%
Total	97,496	157,707	8,077	263,280	-60211	37.03%	59.90%	-22.87%

Here's the 2004 numbers.

2004 Elections	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	37,470	36,089	573	74,132	1381	50.54%	48.68%	1.86%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	13,153	45,117	700	58,970	-31964	22.30%	76.51%	-54.20%
Ann Arbor Township	1,083	1,787	10	2,880	-704	37.60%	62.05%	-24.44%
Augusta Township	1,411	1,599	42	3,052	-188	46.23%	52.39%	-6.16%
City of Milan	822	822	17	1,661	0	49.49%	49.49%	0.00%
Pittsfield Township	5,839	9,271	157	15,267	-3432	38.25%	60.73%	-22.48%
Scio Township (4)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Superior Township	2,227	3,948	44	6,219	-1721	35.81%	63.48%	-27.67%
York Township	2,367	1,623	23	4,013	744	58.98%	40.44%	18.54%
City of Ypsilanti	1,581	6,046	125	7,752	-4465	20.39%	77.99%	-57.60%
Ypsilanti Township	7,887	16,240	240	24,367	-8353	32.37%	66.65%	-34.28%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	5,369	6,916	114	12,399	-1547	43.30%	55.78%	-12.48%
City of Dearborn				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D31	323	343	8	674	-20	47.92%	50.89%	-2.97%
D32	363	266	10	639	97	56.81%	41.63%	15.18%
D33	286	278	2	566	8	50.53%	49.12%	1.41%
D34	366	341	11	718	25	50.97%	47.49%	3.48%
D35	288	231	3	522	57	55.17%	44.25%	10.92%
D36	283	168	6	457	115	61.93%	36.76%	25.16%
D37	380	241	1	622	139	61.09%	38.75%	22.35%
D38	264	237	5	506	27	52.17%	46.84%	5.34%
D39	295	253	7	555	42	53.15%	45.59%	7.57%
D40	245	214	6	465	31	52.69%	46.02%	6.67%
D41	263	212	5	480	51	54.79%	44.17%	10.63%
D42	229	234	10	473	-5	48.41%	49.47%	-1.06%
D43	207	280	2	489	-73	42.33%	57.26%	-14.93%
D44	255	364	10	629	-109	40.54%	57.87%	-17.33%
D45	233	199	7	439	34	53.08%	45.33%	7.74%
D46	256	252	11	519	4	49.33%	48.55%	0.77%
D47	250	262	9	521	-12	47.98%	50.29%	-2.30%
D48	237	286	9	532	-49	44.55%	53.76%	-9.21%
D49	216	260	5	481	-44	44.91%	54.05%	-9.15%
D50	212	235	7	454	-23	46.70%	51.76%	-5.07%
D955				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D956				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D957				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D958				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Dearborn Heights	11,128	14,902	285	26,315	-3774	42.29%	56.63%	-14.34%
DH 6	-148	-257	-1	(406)	109	36.45%	63.30%	-26.85%
DH7	-288	-380	-13	(681)	92	42.29%	55.80%	-13.51%
DH8	-238	-274	-8	(520)	36	45.77%	52.69%	-6.92%
DH9	-195	-232	-8	(435)	37	44.83%	53.33%	-8.51%
DH10	-152	-237	-11	(400)	85	38.00%	59.25%	-21.25%
DH11	-272	-301	-14	(587)	29	46.34%	51.28%	-4.94%
DH12	-243	-336	-9	(588)	93	41.33%	57.14%	-15.82%
DH13	-253	-263	-4	(520)	10	48.65%	50.58%	-1.92%
DH37	-108	-263	-3	(374)	155	28.88%	70.32%	-41.44%
DH38	-208	-282	-11	(501)	74	41.52%	56.29%	-14.77%
DH941	-82	-119	-3	(204)	37	40.20%	58.33%	-18.14%
DH942	-602	-776	-17	(1,395)	174	43.15%	55.63%	-12.47%
City of Flat Rock	1,917	2,233	37	4,187	-316	45.78%	53.33%	-7.55%
Huron Township	3,578	3,417	53	7,048	161	50.77%	48.48%	2.28%
City of Inkster	1,254	9,729	51	11,034	-8475	11.36%	88.17%	-76.81%
City of Rockwood	759	948	10	1,717	-189	44.21%	55.21%	-11.01%
City of Romulus	2,848	7,563	80	10,491	-4715	27.15%	72.09%	-44.94%
Sumpter Township	1,979	2,963	38	4,980	-984	39.74%	59.50%	-19.76%
City of Taylor	10,444	16,377	225	27,046	-5933	38.62%	60.55%	-21.94%
City of Woodhaven	3,076	3,330	49	6,455	-254	47.65%	51.59%	-3.93%
Total	118,854	192,356	2,905	314,115	-73502	37.84%	61.24%	-23.40%

Here's the 2008 numbers.

2008 Elections	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Monroe County	35,858	39,180	1384	76,422	-3322	46.92%	51.27%	-4.35%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor	10,712	51,587	836	63,135	-40875	16.97%	81.71%	-64.74%
Ann Arbor Township	829	1,836	23	2,688	-1007	30.84%	68.30%	-37.46%
Augusta Township	1,489	1,979	78	3,546	-490	41.99%	55.81%	-13.82%
City of Milan	802	1,151	31	1,984	-349	40.42%	58.01%	-17.59%
Pittsfield Township	5,042	11,342	210	16,594	-6300	30.38%	68.35%	-37.97%
Scio Township (4)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Superior Township	2,048	4,951	109	7,108	-2903	28.81%	69.65%	-40.84%
York Township	2,313	1,934	56	4,303	379	53.75%	44.95%	8.81%
City of Ypsilanti	1,306	7,828	170	9,304	-6522	14.04%	84.14%	-70.10%
Ypsilanti Township	6,517	19,579	342	26,438	-13062	24.65%	74.06%	-49.41%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brownstown Township	5,373	8,668	138	14,179	-3295	37.89%	61.13%	-23.24%
City of Dearborn				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
D31	212	423	8	643	-211	32.97%	65.79%	-32.81%
D32	280	389	14	683	-109	41.00%	56.95%	-15.96%
D33	230	350	10	590	-120	38.98%	59.32%	-20.34%
D34	402	581	22	1,005	-179	40.00%	57.81%	-17.81%
D35	261	351	10	622	-90	41.96%	56.43%	-14.47%
D36	269	370	16	655	-101	41.07%	56.49%	-15.42%
D37	250	306	12	568	-56	44.01%	53.87%	-9.86%
D38	300	301	11	612	-1	49.02%	49.18%	-0.16%
D39	316	360	9	685	-44	46.13%	52.55%	-6.42%
D40	286	302	8	596	-16	47.99%	50.67%	-2.68%
D41	415	381	9	805	34	51.55%	47.33%	4.22%
D42	276	344	10	630	-68	43.81%	54.60%	-10.79%
D43	365	387	20	772	-22	47.28%	50.13%	-2.85%
D44	441	471	24	936	-30	47.12%	50.32%	-3.21%
D45	373	598	27	998	-225	37.37%	59.92%	-22.55%
D46	355	540	16	911	-185	38.97%	59.28%	-20.31%
D47	269	390	17	676	-121	39.79%	57.69%	-17.90%
D48	281	373	9	663	-92	42.38%	56.26%	-13.88%
D49	380	574	31	985	-194	38.58%	58.27%	-19.70%
D50	277	490	18	785	-213	35.29%	62.42%	-27.13%
D955	630	580	16	1,226	50	51.39%	47.31%	4.08%
D956	544	532	12	1,088	12	50.00%	48.90%	1.10%
D957	573	655	27	1,255	-82	45.66%	52.19%	-6.53%
D958	465	491	19	975	-26	47.69%	50.36%	-2.67%
Dearborn Heights	9,466	16,095	543	26,104	-6629	36.26%	61.66%	-25.39%
DH 6	-96	-313	-5	(414)	217	23.19%	75.60%	-52.42%
DH7	-242	-413	-9	(664)	171	36.45%	62.20%	-25.75%
DH8	-196	-281	-7	(484)	85	40.50%	58.06%	-17.56%
DH9	-142	-282	-8	(432)	140	32.87%	65.28%	-32.41%
DH10	-126	-216	-10	(352)	90	35.80%	61.36%	-25.57%
DH11	-185	-321	-10	(516)	136	35.85%	62.21%	-26.36%
DH12	-180	-331	-13	(524)	151	34.35%	63.17%	-28.82%
DH13	-199	-280	-8	(487)	81	40.86%	57.49%	-16.63%
DH37	-86	-305	-7	(398)	219	21.61%	76.63%	-55.03%
DH38	-162	-278	-20	(460)	116	35.22%	60.43%	-25.22%
DH941	-71	-144	-4	(219)	73	32.42%	65.75%	-33.33%
DH942	-697	-804	-36	(1,537)	107	45.35%	52.31%	-6.96%
City of Flat Rock	1,807	2,504	101	4,412	-697	40.96%	56.75%	-15.80%
Huron Township	3,669	3,852	176	7,697	-183	47.67%	50.05%	-2.38%
City of Inkster	699	11,340	72	12,111	-10641	5.77%	93.63%	-87.86%
City of Rockwood	678	900	39	1,617	-222	41.93%	55.66%	-13.73%
City of Romulus	2,404	9,202	164	11,770	-6798	20.42%	78.18%	-57.76%
Sumpter Township	1,696	2,961	84	4,741	-1265	35.77%	62.46%	-26.68%
City of Taylor	9,224	17,264	563	27,051	-8040	34.10%	63.82%	-29.72%
City of Woodhaven	2,863	3,781	110	6,754	-918	42.39%	55.98%	-13.59%
Total	110,863	224,505	5,467	340,835	-113642	32.53%	65.87%	-33.34%

The farm club has mostly democrat areas, but not all of them are.

St. Senate 18th - Covers the City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Twp, Augusta Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lyndon Twp, Northfield Twp, a small portion of Pittsfield Twp, Salem Twp, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Superior Twp, Sylvan Twp, City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Twp in Washtenaw County. This is one of the most democrat state senate seats in the state. Most of this is in the 15th District (Dingell), but some of this is in the 7th.

St Senate 18th	GOP	Dem
06 - Kopinski/Brater	29,075	72,774	3	101,852	-43699	28.55%	71.45%	-42.90%
02 - Darr/Brater	27,726	52,912	2635	83,273	-25186	33.30%	63.54%	-30.25%

St. Senate 17th - Covers all of Monroe County, Grass Lake, Leoni, Norvell, and Summit Twps in Jackson County, and Bridgwater Twp, Lodi Twp, Manchester Twp, city of Milan, Pittsfield Twp, City of Saline, Saline Twp, and York Twp in Washtenaw County. This is another swing district. Monroe County is a swing county that has gone democrat more than republican. The rest of the area swings as well, although Washtenaw County portion is more democrat and the Jackson County portion more republican, although neither overwhelmingly so (Jackson thanks to Leoni, Washtenaw, thanks to everything but Pittsfield).The Jackson County and some of the Washtenaw County portion is in the 7th district. The rest is in the 15th. Randy Richardville is the incumbent who won in the tough 2006 year.

St Senate 17th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Richardville/Schockman	52113	45445		97,558	6668	53.42%	46.58%	6.83%
02 - Hammerstrom/LeMasters	44773	30262		75,035	14511	59.67%	40.33%	19.34%

St Senate 8th -  Covers Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte in Wayne County. This is one of the two main downriver districts. It is solidly democrat with only Allen Park occasionally competitive. Ray Basham is a termed out incumbent most famous for the big government smoking ban.

St Senate 8th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Kalsic/Basham	21,727	58,501	2197	82,425	-36774	26.36%	70.97%	-44.62%
02 - Montelauro/Basham	22,128	43,874	2312	68,314	-21746	32.39%	64.22%	-31.83%

St Senate 7th - Covers Belleville, Brownstown Twp, Canton Twp, City of Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Twp, Huron Twp, City of Northville (Wayne County side), Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, City of Rockwood, Sumpter Twp, City of Trenton, Van Buren Twp, and City of Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a swing district, if not slightly democrat leaning. Bruce Patterson had two tough wins and is termed out. Patterson won, by cutting into the normal GOP losses in the downriver portions of the district, while winning Canton, Plymouth Twp and Northville. This will be a major battle in 2010. It's been a battleground district for years, as was its similar district pre-redistricting represented by Lorne Bennett.

St Senate 7th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Patterson/Slavens	59,647	56,156		115,803	3491	51.51%	48.49%	3.01%
02 - Patterson/Mans	52,435	40,675		93,110	11760	56.32%	43.68%	12.63%

St Senate 5th - Dearborn Heights, Detroit, and Inkster - This is a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn Heights separates black majority Inkster and Detroit, so it's included. Detroit itself is the most democrat city over 100,000 people in the country. Tupac Hunter is the incumbent.

St Senate 5th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Malhalab/Hunter	8,164	56,252	1510	65,926	-48088	12.38%	85.33%	-72.94%
02 - Patrick/Leland	10,334	49,780		60,114	-39446	17.19%	82.81%	-65.62%

St Senate 3rd - Covers Dearborn, Detroit, and River Rouge - This is also a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn is about 1/3 of the district and is outvoted by Detroit. Irma Clark-Coleman is the incumbent and is termed out. .

St Senate 3rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Sophiea/Clark-Coleman	12,353	58,063		70,416	-45710	17.54%	82.46%	-64.91%
02 - Hernandez/Clark	12,855	53,395	3	66,253	-40540	19.40%	80.59%	-61.19%

St Rep 56th - Covers Ash Township, Berlin Township,  Exeter Township, Frenchtown Township, Ida Township, La Salle Township, London Township, City of Luna Pier, City of Monroe, Monroe Township, and Raisinville Township in Monroe County. This is a swing district with a slight democrat leaning, although Randy Richardville has won here on several occasions. Kate Ebli is the incumbent.

St Rep 56th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Dahm/Ebli	15,459	28,495	1224	45,178	-13036	34.22%	63.07%	-28.85%
06 - Manor/Ebli	16,133	18,468		34,601	-2335	46.63%	53.37%	-6.75%
04 - Manor/Kerhl	20,671	21,554	1662	43,887	-883	47.10%	49.11%	-2.01%
02 - Richardville/Sacks	17,357	9,004		26,361	8353	65.84%	34.16%	31.69%

St Rep 55th - Covers Bedford Township, Dundee Township, Erie Township, City of Milan, Milan Township, City of Petersburg, Summerfield Township, and Whiteford Township in Monroe County, and City of Milan, Pittsfield Township, One precinct in Saline Township, and York Township in Washtenaw County. This is a swing district with the more Republican areas of Monroe County, and democrat Pittsfield Township in Washtenaw County. Pittsfield's leanings alone can flip this seat as it happened in 2004.
 

St Rep 55th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Moynihan/Angerer	17,054	33,236		50,290	-16182	33.91%	66.09%	-32.18%
06 - Milosch/Angerer	13,208	23,409		36,617	-10201	36.07%	63.93%	-27.86%
04 - Milosch/Angerer	23,980	24,299		48,279	-319	49.67%	50.33%	-0.66%
02 - Milosch/Hauser-Hurley	14,287	12,679		26,966	1608	52.98%	47.02%	5.96%

St Rep 54th - Covers Augusta Township, Salem Township, Superior Township, the City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti township in Washtenaw County. This is a solidly democrat district based in Ypsi.

St Rep 54th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Banks/Smith	12,283	33,509	1319	47,111	-21226	26.07%	71.13%	-45.06%
06 - Banks/Smith	9,036	22,250	1402	32,688	-13214	27.64%	68.07%	-40.42%
04 - Myers/Smith	12,698	28,568	860	42,126	-15870	30.14%	67.82%	-37.67%
02 - Trent/Jamnick	8,112	17,888		26,000	-9776	31.20%	68.80%	-37.60%

St Rep 53rd - Covers most of Ann Arbor, part of Ann Arbor Township, and small parts of Pittsfield and  Scio Townships in Washtenaw County - This is one of the two most liberal districts in the state.

St Rep 53rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Brewton/Warren	8,282	37,845	2200	48,327	-29563	17.14%	78.31%	-61.17%
06 - Sheagren/Warren	5,898	26,985	847	33,730	-21087	17.49%	80.00%	-62.52%
04 - Sheagren/Kolb	9,127	36,745		45,872	-27618	19.90%	80.10%	-60.21%
02 - Milroy/Kolb	6,279	22,254		28,533	-15975	22.01%	77.99%	-55.99%

St Rep 52nd - Covers Northeastern Ann Arbor, most of Ann Arbor Twp, Bridgwater Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, City of Saline, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp. This was created as a swing district, but does have some democrat leanings, especially within the last 6 years. Gene DeRossett won the district in 2002 by winning big in the far western townships as a two term incumbent (of a less democrat district). Pam Byrnes won the 2004 open seat and has held it since. She's termed out. The open seat I'd say favors a democrat, but the Republicans have their best candidate running in Mark Ouimet, who as a county commissioner, somehow still wins in Scio Twp. This will be one to watch.

St Rep 52nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Lielbriedis/Byrnes	19,180	35,957	1982	57,119	-16777	33.58%	62.95%	-29.37%
06 - Brown/Byrnes	16,747	28,046		44,793	-11299	37.39%	62.61%	-25.22%
04 - Yekulis/Byrnes	24,669	29,740		54,409	-5071	45.34%	54.66%	-9.32%
02 - DeRossett/Byrnes	19,579	17,091		36,670	2488	53.39%	46.61%	6.78%

State Rep 23rd - Covers Brownstown Township, Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Township, Huron Township, Rockwood, Sumpter Township, and Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a slight democrat leaning district, but competitive some years. It was very close in 2002.

St Rep 23rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - DeBlois/Kennedy	18,376	26,987		45,363	-8611	40.51%	59.49%	-18.98%
06 - Bostic/Law	12,677	21,636		34,313	-8959	36.95%	63.05%	-26.11%
04 - Vollenweider/Law	19,202	24,004	727	43,933	-4802	43.71%	54.64%	-10.93%
02 - Jones/Law	13,171	13,430	552	27,153	-259	48.51%	49.46%	-0.95%

State Rep 22nd - Covers Romulus and Taylor in Wayne County - Solidly democrat district covering the airport area. Heavily union and airport workers.

St Rep 22nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - McNeill/Geiss	6,780	25,676	3919	36,375	-18896	18.64%	70.59%	-51.95%
06 - Armstrong/Hopgood	5,882	19,260	895	26,037	-13378	22.59%	73.97%	-51.38%
04 - Kalsic/Hopgood	8,863	24,375	1807	35,045	-15512	25.29%	69.55%	-44.26%
02 - Vaughan/Hopgood	5,696	14,042	657	20,395	-8346	27.93%	68.85%	-40.92%

State Rep 16th - Covers part of Allen Park, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Inkster - Solidly democrat. All areas here lean democrat, with Inkster anchoring this seat.

St Rep 16th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Smith/Constan	9,133	28,195		37,328	-19062	24.47%	75.53%	-51.07%
06 - DeLozier/Constan	7,002	19,346		26,348	-12344	26.58%	73.42%	-46.85%
04 - Lauster/Plakas	9,259	25,756	1626	36,641	-16497	25.27%	70.29%	-45.02%
02 - Homeier/Plakas	5,595	16,693	913	23,201	-11098	24.12%	71.95%	-47.83%

State Rep 15th - Covers most of Dearborn - Strongly leans democrat, although Gary Woronchak won as a republican before switching parties. Dearborn long leaned Democrat being Dingell's home base since the 1960's. Bush won it in 2000, but Iraq shifted Dearborn about 10% more D at the top of the ticket.

St Rep 15th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Saionz/Polidori	8,292	28,606		36,898	-20314	22.47%	77.53%	-55.05%
06 - Ghasham/Polidori	6,755	21,391		28,146	-14636	24.00%	76.00%	-52.00%
04 - Thomas/Polidori	13,063	23,923		36,986	-10860	35.32%	64.68%	-29.36%
02 - Woronchak	19,227			19,227	19227	100.00%	0.00%	100.00%

Overall, this is a seat that did its job in 2002. It combined the Lynn Rivers base in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti with Dingell's base in Southern Wayne County and Monroe County in an attempt to knock out Lynn Rivers or John Dingell. It did exactly that. It is a very difficult district for the GOP to win, although Engler carried it in 1998. Dingell's a hard worker, and usually doesn't take elections for granted. It depends on whether the bleeding can be stopped in the Ann Arbor area bringing it back at least to its 1990's era numbers (more the burbs), carrying Monroe big, and finally breaking through downriver with Inkster, Romulus, and a lot of the democrat base staying home. It's easy to say, and difficult to do, as this seat was gerrymandered to put two different democrat bases together, without giving Dingell's home to the Conyers district.

Update 5-18-2010 - I'm surprised there's a 5 way primary on the GOP side considering this district's history. Two of the candidates are in Ypsi, and three are in Wayne County. Maybe something is brewing here. At worst case scenario, maybe we can flip the Monroe districts and one of the downriver seats with some hard work.