MI-11 still a cluster by electing two congressmen

The 11th district elected two congressmen last Tuesday. I thought this could happen, because of differences in the new and old districts. Thank you McCotter campaign staffers.

I've heard conflicting things about the special election in the 11th. The AP called it at first for Bentivolio. I saw three sources now that called it for David Curson, so I think that's the correct call now. That's the Secretary of State's call as well.

Old 11th:
David Curson  - 159,267
Kerry Bentivolio - 151,740
Third Parties - 18,139

New 11th
Kerry Bentivolio - 181,796
Syed Taj - 158,889
Third Parties - About 18,000

Thanks to McCotter and his campaign staff, we have a two month period of a dem in a lame duck session with major fiscal discussions. Thanks, man.

This still isn't over. Besides the court cases, there may be a nasty primary here in 2014. What Bentivolio needs to do starting in January is to work the district hard. People first and foremost want competence here with the district related issues that don't get the press. Constituent relations is key. If Bentivolio shores that up, thinks before he speaks and doesn't do a Todd Akin, and works hard, he can survive a primary/general in 2014.



 

The latest chapter in the continuing misadventures of MI-11

There was talk about a special election not happening if only one person ran in each party. We all know how that was going to go. Nowhere. We know that because there's open warfare right now between the establishment in Oakland County and Kerry Bentivolio's campaign. Do you really think either of them was going to listen to the other? It's not going to happen. There will be a special election on September 5th.

Here's the latest with the time line.

August 7th - NEW MI-11. August Primary. On the ballot is Kerry Bentivolio for the GOP and a democrat primary between Syed Taj and Bill Roberts. There's a write-in campaign for Nancy Cassis.

September 5th - OLD MI-11 with the following candidates if their signatures are valid and accepted.
Dems:
David Curson. He wins and will be on the November ballot. He's from Belleville or Van Buren Twp.
GOP:
Kerry Bentivolio - The frontrunner for the new district.
Nancy Cassis - She's on the ballot this time.
Carolyn Kavanagh - Daughter of judge Sean Kavanagh. Lives in Livonia.
Kenneth Crider - Lives in Livonia, don't know anything about him.
Steve King - A RINO. Steve King ran as a democrat against John Walsh in 2008. He now calls himself a Milliken type. That's all I need to know. Bill Milliken sucked as governor and gave us the single business tax, as well as supported tax funded abortions. He also supported far leftists John Kerry, Granholm, and Obama. I'd vote Granholm over Milliken if I had to pick one with a gun to my head. King's a good musician, but at least run as a dem if that's what you are.

November 6th - Both the regular and special elections.
Regular election - NEW district - Will be between the winner of the primary between Taj and Roberts for the dems, and Bentivolio or write-in candidate for the GOP
Special Election - OLD district - Will be between David Curson and the GOP winner.

It is possible that we could have a two month congressman.

And all this could have been avoided if Thad McCotter, A - Got his signatures done properly, or B - served out his term without resigning.

McCotter resigns, MI-11 even more of a clustermuck

I would have posted this earlier, but July's my busiest month of the year during election season. This is unbelievable. As most know Thad McCotter resigned early. It caused Michigan even more of a mess. McCotter's early resignation got us stuck with a $650,000 bill. I wondered why there was even a special primary/general election set up this late in the season, but Michigan law conflicts with the feds here, and the feds win out. Under Michigan Law, elections are held four days a year. February, May, August primary and the November general. I mistakenly assumed that if there was a special, it would be simply a general with the August nominees in November. Well, we know what they say about the word assume. Ass. U. Me. (or to quote from Under Siege 2 - The mother of all F'ups) Wrong.

There's two special elections. The first is the Special Primary in of all times September 5th. The Special General is on the November election. The special election applies to the OLD 11th District, not the new one. So Westland for example will be voting in November for a two month term in the house in the 11th, as well as for the new term in the new district. I rarely agree with Jack Lessenberry, but he said it best.

This election is happening because the governor’s office determined reluctantly that they had to do this. Under our Federal Constitution, if a U.S. Senator resigns from office, the governor gets to appoint a replacement. Not so with House members, however. Ten years ago, an Ohio representative was expelled from Congress later in July, and the governor declined to hold an expensive election to replace him. The federal courts swiftly ruled that Ohio’s governor had violated the law. So Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, in charge while the governor is on vacation, decided Michigan had no choice. That’s sensible, but the requirement is crazy, true, if the same person wins the special election and the general, they will have a slight advantage in seniority, though hardly enough to matter.

I understand why Calley as Lt Governor called it. He wasn't happy about it, but he didn't want this in court. I think all the polls as well as the taxpayers would rather have this vacant, but it's not worth going to court over. I wish McCotter just stayed on till his term is up. I don't think in my 11 years of partisan political activity that I've ever seen anything remotely like the situation here in the 11th District. I feel bad for the non political staffers who had nothing to do with this, and are likely out of a job due to the work of some on the campaign staff. Here's a basic timeline for MI-11.

Present - Absentees are now out for the August Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for the September Special Primary in the OLD 11th District.

August 7th - Normal August Primary. Kerry Bentivolio is on the ballot. Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in after McCotter was booted off the ballot for signature problems (to say the least). This is for the NEW 11th District.

September 5th - Special Primary. Candidates are gathering signatures for this primary. Both Bentivolio and Cassis are gathering signatures. I'm not sure the dems are trying for this. Those on the ballot will be the nominee for the special general election which covers the remaining portion of McCotter's term. This is in the OLD district.

 November 6th - General AND Special General. There will be TWO elections for the 11th District in this seat. The Special General is in the OLD 11th and will be for the two months of lame duck in the old McCotter term. The Regular General will cover the NEW 11th and will be the winners of the August Primary.

It is possible that Nancy Cassis becomes a two month Congresswoman. In fact, that wouldn't be all that shocking. It's also possible that Bentivolio wins both. I hope that does happen, because it would make a smoother transition. It's also possible that Glenn Anderson if he so chooses, could run for the special 11th (He lives in the district), win it (the old 11th is much more dem), and then if he upsets John Conyers in the primary, becomes the congressman in the 13th district. Once again, MI-11 is showing itself to be a major 2012 Cluster(m)uck with a capital F.

Ballot updates - Cassis is in as write-in, others off ballot

There's been updates on who is on the ballot.  From the Free Press

McCotter wasn't the only candidate with insufficient petition signatures. Also kept off ballots by the state Board of Canvassers on Wednesday were: U.S. Senate candidate Peter Konetchy, a Roscommon Republican; 7th Congressional District candidate Michael Stahly, a Potterville Republican, and 8th Congressional District candidate Michael Magdich, a Democrat from Whitmore Lake.

I'm sad to see Konetchy out. While I keep my blog and my business interests largely separate, Peter was one of my clients. He's a good guy and focused heavily on the constitution, limited government, and budgetary concerns. Unfortunately it was a skeleton crew campaign and there's only so much a few people can do. I haven't completely decided who I'm backing with him out, although I will not be supporting Gary Glenn at all. I won't go into the details, except to say that I'm not impressed with some of the behind the scenes campaign tactics used by some of his major pushers. This goes long before the past week. It's not about conservative views in this case, but tactics.

Magdich is out. That means there is only one guy running on the democrat side for the 8th district. Lance Enderle in a rematch. Lance will have more time to campaign this time. 

There's also a coronation attempt from 11 "leaders" in the 11th District. Also from The Free Press

Former state Sen. Nancy Cassis, a Novi Republican, is the consensus candidate among a group of 11 GOP leaders in Oakland and Wayne counties to run a write-in 11th district congressional campaign in wake of the botched effort to put U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter on the ballot.

Nothing against Cassis, but I hope no party resources are used by committees controlled by those leaders. If individuals are supporting Cassis, that's fine, but party resources should not be used in the primary. I think there's a very good chance that our nominee in the 11th district will be Kerry Bentivolio, if for no other reason, his name being on the ballot, and Cassis running as a write-in. Party resources should stay neutral in the primary, and be ready to go in the general for whoever the nominee is, be it Bentivolio or Cassis. It's going to take at least 25,000 write-ins just to be remotely considered, and I suspect the number to be closer to 40,000. If Cassis can get that, without official party resources, then I'll be impressed and she's earned it. She'll have to work 3-4 times as hard as Bentivolio to have a chance. 

Bentivolio's weakness is money. He doesn't have a lot and won't be getting much, since I think Oakland GOP is unofficially going to be pushing the money to Cassis. Brooks Patterson's comments made it clear. There's a way around that, although it's not an easy one. Bentivolio needs to get primary voter lists, and start hitting doors, doors, and doors. Joe Hune style. While I think Bentivolio is favored to win, he can't take this for granted either. Control what can be controlled and work from there.

McCotter is out

It's really too bad that the electoral career (for now) at least of a good guy ends due to a major blunder like this. Thad McCotter releases his statement.

U.S. Rep.’s Sole Focus Is Finishing His Term and Aiding His Requested Attorney General Probe

“I have ended my write-in campaign in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District,” announced McCotter.

“One can’t clean up a mess multitasking. Honoring my promise to the sovereign people of our community only allows me to finish the official duties of my present Congressional term; and aid the State Attorney General criminal investigation that I requested into identifying the person or persons who concocted the fraudulent petitions that have cost me so dearly.

“Honoring this promise does not allow me to continue a political write-in campaign. This decision is final, regardless of how swiftly the investigation is concluded.”

“To those who unhappy at this news, I’m sorry; to those happy at this news, you’re welcome,” McCotter concluded.

I think it's time for us to now get behind a candidate, and for the party apparatuses to stay neutral. That candidate is Kerry Bentivolio. Bentivolio got the signatures to be on the ballot. Write-in campaigns for congress rarely succeed. Bentivolio is the very likely nominee. Many pundits are thinking that someone else wouldn't likely win as a write-in, but keep in mind that it takes at least 25-30K write-ins just to have a ghost of a chance. At minimum, if you want to back someone as a write-in, don't damage Bentivolio to where the dems have a good shot to win.  

 

McCotter didn't make the ballot - running as write in

The speculation is confirmed in MI-11. McCotter said so himself. From the Detroit News

Having promised people I would seek another term in the United States Congress and, thereby, give them the chance to vote for or against me, the only way to clean up my mess is to run a write-in campaign for the Republican nomination for Michigan's 11th Congressional District. This I'm doing.

I have no problem with this if it is McCotter's campaign resources solely going to this. If party money jumps in, then I have a problem due to bad tactics. McCotter wants to clean up his mess, as he says. Let him and his campaign clean up their mess for the primary. The party itself needs to wait and help the general election nominee.

Keep in mind that in Michigan, stickers aren't allowed. If I was an MI-11 resident and wanted to vote for McCotter, I'd have to write Thad McCotter's name on the ballot in the Republican column. That is after all the other election races like County Commission, US Senate, and State Rep. It's a lot more convenient and easier to simply fill in the circle or draw the arrow next to the name already there.

With the grumbling right now out of Oakland County especially, I'm not sure there's not going to be other candidates. Rocky Raczkowski's endorsed David Trott already. Kowall might want to jump back in too. I think this race is now Bentivolio's to lose. When a quitter, albeit in a different district, gets 22,000 votes, what's an actual candidate going to get, even if he's not that well known. Now McCotter's not Lance Enderle, but Bentivolio's not a quitter either. If McCotter wins the write-in race, he's earned it and made up for the campaign blunder. In a big way.

If I'm Bentivolio, I'm looking to shore up my biggest weakness. Fundraising. I'd also be hitting as many doors as possible and trying to win this campaign the Joe Hune way.

Don't compound a tactical error

I'm writing this based on the assumption that McCotter won't be on the August primary ballot. If there are enough signatures, then this is a moot point. As it looks based on speculation, the only name on the ballot for the republicans in the 11th District (MI-11) is Kerry Bentivolio

Assuming McCotter is gone, there's been a lot of push for write-ins. I think it's a bad move for a party to make here. By party, I am referring to NRCC, RNC, MIGOP, 11th District Committee, Oakland County Republican Party, and the Oakland County Republican Clubs. If McCotter campaign wants to go for a write-in fine. If Trott on his own wants to go for it, fine. If Kowall wants to go for it on his own, fine. That's their right as candidates. If individuals want to help them, fine.

If party wants to jump in and use party resources, then I have a problem. I do not see much good from a Republican Party operation jumping into a primary chasing a Hail Mary Pass that is likely unable to succeed. Even if it does succeed, it will create more bad blood between establishment and tea party that is not needed. If you want already sore tea parties to hold their nose and vote for their least favorite candidate running, don't piss them off even further. Stay out, and let the best candidate win.

I'm going to argue this from a nuts and bolts pragmatic perspective.

From a logistics standpoint, we had a somewhat similar situation in the 8th District on the democrat side in 2010. Kande Whatshisnamethequitter was running for the democrats to take on Mike Rogers. Sometime before the primary and after the filing deadline, he quit. Lance Enderle ran as a write in against the quitter.  Lance lost to the quitter in the primary. He did get 1703 votes, which isn't bad for a write-in. He eventually got on the ballot because Kande Whatshisname went back to the Philly suburbs. However, the quitter still got 23,228 votes. Granted Lance Enderle had little time for a campaign, but could even Dianne Byrum, Virg Bernero, David Hollister, or Gretchen Whitmer get 23,229 write-in votes? Maybe, but I'd be surprised. Personally, I thought it was impressive that Enderle got almost 10%.

If a quitter can get 23,228 votes in a primary by just having his name on the ballot, what does that say about Kerry Bentivolio's chances in the primary? Bentivolio is a stronger candidate than the quitter, and beat four other candidates in his 2010 race, although not Kowall. Bentivolio's not going to quit. He doesn't have a lot of money, but has some networks with Republican Liberty Caucus (I met him there back in 2010), some tea party groups, and Campaign for Liberty. He's a teacher and a military veteran of Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq. He'll get votes for that, along with the normal vote for whoever is on the ballot unopposed that many candidates get in primaries.

Can Trott get 25,000 write-in votes? I highly doubt it. Can McCotter or Kowall do it? Possible, but I still doubt it. In Michigan, you can't place stickers on the write in space for write ins. You have to spell out the name. McCotter isn't as tough of name to spell out as Rostenkowski, but you have to convince enough primary voters, after this blunder of epic proportions, to go into the booth, and spell out this name when there are other elections on the ballot. Even if one of them get 25,000 votes, it probably still won't be enough. That's just the minimum to have any chance.


In short, there's a very good chance if the parties get involved in this primary for write-ins, that the nominee from the 11th district will be.....Kerry Bentivolio - as it would likely be if the parties stayed out. Frankly, we can do a lot worse than that. I think he'll vote similar to Justin Amash. However, if Bentivolio wins, he'll need a lot of help raising money. That's the biggest reason why the party needs to stay out of the primary. The money spent in the primary needs to be spent in the general. Do you want Bentivolio in there, or Bill Roberts? I guarantee this much. Bentivolio won't back Pelosi as speaker or Conyers as judiciary chair.

MI-11 - Fubar

I'm absolutely stunned at this.A MIRS report's been circulated just about everywhere. MIRS is a good source too, so this isn't looking good at all. McCotter may be ousted from Congress without even an election.

MIRS Breaking News - Movement Within GOP For Trott If McCotter Bounced From Ballot -- 8:48 p.m.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Republican sources tell MIRS tonight that there is growing movement within the Republican Party to recruit Attorney David TROTT, a Bingham Farms attorney, to run in the 11th Congressional District as a write-in if U.S. Rep. Thad McCOTTER (R-Livonia) is unable to make the ballot.

Trott is the co-founder and president of Bingham Farms-based Trott & Trott, one of the nation's largest law firms handling residential default procedures.

Trott, a long-time party activist, had flirted with running for Michigan Republican Party state chair in 2004.

While there is no official word on whether Trott or anyone else would be interested, Republicans have actively searched for candidates after noon today since they were first alerted that McCotter had "woefully fewer" than the 1,000 valid signatures needed to make the ballot.

McCotter turned in 2000 signatures according to the Secretary of State's office. Assuming that's true, how in the hell did 1001 of them get fubared?  How? If this is remotely true, I'm flabbergasted. This is after redistricting and other possible candidates gave him a huge gift. Peters is running against Clarke and Lawrence. Marty Knollenberg long said he wasn't going to run if McCotter did, and is running for Oakland Treasurer. Mike Kowall was going to run and backed out. Kowall especially has to be kicking himself.


The question is now what. Either McCotter survives the petition challenges, or he's gone. If he's in, he's the favorite to win. If he's disqualified, then it's going to be real interesting. What happens is this:

On the dems side, there's a race between Bill Roberts (D-Redford) and Syed Taj (D-Canton).


On the GOP side, Kerry Bentivolio, assuming his signatures clear, will be the frontrunner if McCotter is not on the ballot. McCotter could run as a write-in, as could Trott. In order for Trott or McCotter or anyone else to be the nominee, he'd have to beat whoever is on the ballot. Like Bentivolio. While that could and in fact sometimes DOES happen, it's rare in a congressional district. It's rare even in a township. People would have to write in Trott or McCotter in not just Bloomfields and Livonia, but everywhere else.


I think the Republican establishment here may need to swallow some pride and save its resources to help Bentivolio if McCotter gets KO'ed at the signature level. McCotter in 2008 got 40,000+ votes while being unopposed. In the primary. Even 20,000 write-ins is a very tough undertaking, even for a guy with the resources Trott or McCotter would have. There's a very good chance that Bentivolio will be the nominee if McCotter loses the petition battle. If that's the case, the establishment needs to ask themselves this. Do they want Speaker Pelosi back or not? Bentivolio is a strong tea party candidate and a bit of a libertarian republican. I think he'd be similar to Justin Amash in his views and voting. Instead of floating Trott, they should be grateful that someone bailed out the party if McCotter's out. We can do a lot worse than Bentivolio, like Bill Roberts. 

Updates (Mackinac, 2012, other things)

I've been caught up in a few things, so I haven't been able to update.

1. The Mackinac Conference.

It was a good event, as it usually is. Pundits and Pollsters as always is my favorite panel. I was at the Rick Perry speech there. It went well. He needs to work on his debating skills in a big way as it hurt him a bit, but the stump speech was a good introduction to Michiganders. I think Perry has a good shot if he keeps the message to Texas vs most of the rest of the country in economics. That's his strength. 2012 election is about jobs.

Romney's biggest strength is campaign organization. He won the Mackinac Straw Poll largely because of that. He had the largest campaign presence on the island by far. It's not a surprise. Romney's organization is strong in 2008 as well.

The senate race is interesting. All the campaigns had some presence there, but some are more organized than others. I'm still undecided here. My vote will go to who I think has the best chance against Stabenow.

Pete Hoekstra had a speech and worked hard to get people there. What was interested about the people there is that many of them were on opposite sides in previous races, either with candidates or consultants. I was asked about five different times to show up there, and that is despite being a well known Mike Cox supporter from the gubernatorial election.

I had a brief chance to talk to Hoekstra about my two major concerns. One was TARP. He voted for it the 2nd time. He said that he made his decision based on local bankers in his district calling him up and telling him that he's seen nothing like that before and that something needed to be done. In hindsight, it may or may not have been the right decision, but we don't know what would have happened without the bailout. I don't agree with him there, but respect his answer. The other issue I had was comments about sales tax as a gubernatorial candidate. The timing of it aligned with the self proclaimed "Business leaders for Michigan" push to expand taxes to services. Another person later on said Hoekstra didn't support that plan, but supported Fairtax. I asked Hoekstra about the comments, and he said he supported the Fairtax on the state level. He has long supported it as a congressman at the federal level.

Clark Durant isn't well known, but he has spoken at a Livingston County GOP event several years back when Andy Anuzis was the chair. He's done a lot of work with charter schools and knows how to raise money. I'm interesting to see if he catches fire.

Gary Glenn is the head of Michigan's chapter of the American Family Association. If you haven't heard of him, you will. He's heavily involved in issues opposing gay marriage.

Peter Konetchy and Chuck Marino are both businessmen. I saw some campaign materials for both of them at Mackinac.

I'm undecided in who I support, except that it's going to be Stabenow's opponent.

Also, I found at Mackinac that incumbent and recent presidential candidate Thad McCotter will have a primary challenger if he runs for re-election, and it's going to be a serious one. State Senator Mike Kowall is taking him on and has a lot of prominent support in his county. MI-11 is more Oakland based than it was, so it could be interesting. McCotter is still very strong in Livonia. Kowall is strong in the Highland/White Lake area.

Away from Mackinac, the big news in 2012 is that Sarah Palin is not running. I'm not surprised at this. I think Palin lost any chance she had to win when she resigned as Alaska Governor. I think what she does best is rally the base on the speaker's circuit. I think she has a long career with her PAC and will be around for a long time.

Lastly, keep an eye on the Fast and Furious and Eric Holder. That scandal is picking up some legs. If this is true to any degree, some heads need to roll. That's another reason why the BATF needs to be disbanded. As far as Holder goes, he was Reno's top assistant during the Clinton years. He was bad news even back then.

Congressional District 11 - Redistricted (MI-11)

Incumbents - VACANT - Thad McCotter (R-Livonia)  resigned.
Years in office as of 2012 election -12 (McCotter)
The old 11th district information is here

CHALLENGERS - Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) and Syed Taj (D-Canton)

UPDATE - 5-1-2012: Two challengers have filed. William Robers in Redford despite  it no longer being in the district. Syed Taj is running as well and he's in the Canton area.

Update - 5-16-2012 - McCotter has a primary as well. Bentivolio is a activist in West Oakland who ran for state senate in 2010.

Update - 6-7-2012 - McCotter is off the ballot due to insufficient ballot petitions. Nancy Cassis is running as a write-in. She'll have to get past Bentivolio who is on the ballot. 

Update - 7-22-2012 - It's a giant clustermuck. McCotter resigned. The August primary will decide the nominee for the November general election. A September special primary will be held to replace McCotter in the OLD district. In November we will have the normal and special general elections. One is for a two month term in lame duck. The other for the regular two year term. Click on the MI-11 label to see the latest.

Update 8-30-2012 - In the new MI-11, Bentivolio will face Taj.

This district changed a bit. McCotter was likely on borrowed time with the old district. That is no longer the case. McCotter drops most of his blue sinks. Redford, Wayne, Westland, Garden City, and his portion of Dearborn Heights goes to Hansen Clarke. Van Buren Township and Belleville go to John Dingell. McCotter keeps the rest of his territory and picks up part of the old 9th district, including the rest of Waterford, Farmington, the NW part of West Bloomfield, Lake Angeles, Auburn Hills, Southwestern part of Rochester Hills, Most of Clawson, Birmingham, and Bloomfield Hills. This district is somewhat similar to the old 11th district during the 1990's.

By dropping Redford and Westland, McCotter wins not just by red/blue numbers, but Glenn Anderson and Andy Dillon are in different districts. That was likely his strongest potential opposition. Dian Slavens, Tim Melton, and maybe Lisa Brown (depending on where in West Bloomfield she lives) could provide a challenge. If McCotter makes a serious run for president and does not run for re-election, Marty Knollenberg will likely run.

The old district had an approximate 18000 vote spread for Bush and a 33000 vote spread for Obama. The new district gives Bush a 45000 vote spread and Obama an approximate 8000 vote spread. Dropping the blue sinks (and 30000+ dem vote spreads) do wonders for a district. McCotter in 08 won with about 52% counting 3rd party votes. He won by about 20000 votes overall. In the portion he still represents, there is about a 42000 vote spread.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Auburn Hills	3577	5823	9400	-2246	38.05%	61.95%	-23.89%
Birmingham	5900	6492	12392	-592	47.61%	52.39%	-4.78%
Bloomfield Hills	1580	1112	2692	468	58.69%	41.31%	17.38%
Clawson (most)	2998	3112	6110	-114	49.07%	50.93%	-1.87%
Commerce Twp	11428	9900	21328	1528	53.58%	46.42%	7.16%
Farmington City	2416	3183	5599	-767	43.15%	56.85%	-13.70%
Highland Twp	5987	4533	10520	1454	56.91%	43.09%	13.82%
Lake Angeles	201	59	260	142	77.31%	22.69%	54.62%
Lyon Twp	4120	3009	7129	1111	57.79%	42.21%	15.58%
Milford Twp	5105	3851	8956	1254	57.00%	43.00%	14.00%
Northville City	1127	1001	2128	126	52.96%	47.04%	5.92%
Novi City	13264	14397	27661	-1133	47.95%	52.05%	-4.10%
Novi Twp	52	57	109	-5	47.71%	52.29%	-4.59%
Rochester Hills (small)	3983	3766	7749	217	51.40%	48.60%	2.80%
South Lyon	2983	2712	5695	271	52.38%	47.62%	4.76%
Troy	21230	21517	42747	-287	49.66%	50.34%	-0.67%
Walled Lake	1517	1823	3340	-306	45.42%	54.58%	-9.16%
Waterford Twp	16968	19134	36102	-2166	47.00%	53.00%	-6.00%
West Bloomfield (part)	4609	7500	12109	-2891	38.06%	61.94%	-23.87%
White Lake Twp	8563	7196	15759	1367	54.34%	45.66%	8.67%
Wixom	3077	3495	6572	-418	46.82%	53.18%	-6.36%
Wayne County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Canton Twp	19078	26092	45170	-7014	42.24%	57.76%	-15.53%
Livonia	28190	28358	56548	-168	49.85%	50.15%	-0.30%
Northville City	846	895	1741	-49	48.59%	51.41%	-2.81%
Northville Twp	9025	7497	16522	1528	54.62%	45.38%	9.25%
Plymouth City	2277	3013	5290	-736	43.04%	56.96%	-13.91%
Plymouth Twp	9003	8115	17118	888	52.59%	47.41%	5.19%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	189104	197642	386746	-8538	48.90%	51.10%	-2.21%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Auburn Hills	4089	4724	8813	-635	46.40%	53.60%	-7.21%
Birmingham	6772	5508	12280	1264	55.15%	44.85%	10.29%
Bloomfield Hills	1802	951	2753	851	65.46%	34.54%	30.91%
Clawson (most)	3584	3471	7055	113	50.80%	49.20%	1.60%
Commerce Twp	12019	7838	19857	4181	60.53%	39.47%	21.06%
Farmington City	2873	2680	5553	193	51.74%	48.26%	3.48%
Highland Twp	6509	3849	10358	2660	62.84%	37.16%	25.68%
Lake Angeles	217	43	260	174	83.46%	16.54%	66.92%
Lyon Twp	4082	2274	6356	1808	64.22%	35.78%	28.45%
Milford Twp	5413	3252	8665	2161	62.47%	37.53%	24.94%
Northville City	1269	866	2135	403	59.44%	40.56%	18.88%
Novi City	14484	10612	25096	3872	57.71%	42.29%	15.43%
Novi Twp	67	40	107	27	62.62%	37.38%	25.23%
Rochester Hills (small)	4546	3114	7660	1432	59.35%	40.65%	18.69%
South Lyon	3191	2236	5427	955	58.80%	41.20%	17.60%
Troy	24171	18175	42346	5996	57.08%	42.92%	14.16%
Walled Lake	1664	1580	3244	84	51.29%	48.71%	2.59%
Waterford Twp	19965	16507	36472	3458	54.74%	45.26%	9.48%
West Bloomfield (part)	5329	6704	12033	-1375	44.29%	55.71%	-11.43%
White Lake Twp	9439	5821	15260	3618	61.85%	38.15%	23.71%
Wixom	3484	2552	6036	932	57.72%	42.28%	15.44%
Wayne County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Canton Twp	21452	19743	41195	1709	52.07%	47.93%	4.15%
Livonia	30626	25148	55774	5478	54.91%	45.09%	9.82%
Northville City	955	790	1745	165	54.73%	45.27%	9.46%
Northville Twp	9110	5676	14786	3434	61.61%	38.39%	23.22%
Plymouth City	2557	2553	5110	4	50.04%	49.96%	0.08%
Plymouth Twp	9828	6987	16815	2841	58.45%	41.55%	16.90%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	209497	163694	373191	45803	56.14%	43.86%	12.27%
	McCotter	Larkin	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Auburn Hills			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Birmingham			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bloomfield Hills			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson (most)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	12036	7491	19527	4545	61.64%	38.36%	23.28%
Farmington City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Highland Twp	6217	3450	9667	2767	64.31%	35.69%	28.62%
Lake Angeles			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Lyon Twp	4369	2162	6531	2207	66.90%	33.10%	33.79%
Milford Twp	5468	2735	8203	2733	66.66%	33.34%	33.32%
Northville City	1297	714	2011	583	64.50%	35.50%	28.99%
Novi City	14675	10864	25539	3811	57.46%	42.54%	14.92%
Novi Twp	62	37	99	25	62.63%	37.37%	25.25%
Rochester Hills (small)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
South Lyon	3222	1999	5221	1223	61.71%	38.29%	23.42%
Troy			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Walled Lake	1608	1451	3059	157	52.57%	47.43%	5.13%
Waterford Twp	1736	1441	3177	295	54.64%	45.36%	9.29%
West Bloomfield (part)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
White Lake Twp	8772	5595	14367	3177	61.06%	38.94%	22.11%
Wixom	3331	2680	6011	651	55.42%	44.58%	10.83%
Wayne County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Canton Twp	21047	20703	41750	344	50.41%	49.59%	0.82%
Livonia	31114	21286	52400	9828	59.38%	40.62%	18.76%
Northville City	967	646	1613	321	59.95%	40.05%	19.90%
Northville Twp	9967	5400	15367	4567	64.86%	35.14%	29.72%
Plymouth City	2662	2192	4854	470	54.84%	45.16%	9.68%
Plymouth Twp	10166	5912	16078	4254	63.23%	36.77%	26.46%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	138716	96758	235474	41958	58.91%	41.09%	17.82%

Michigan 11th District (MI-11) Updated

Michigan's 11th District - Congress

Incumbent - Thad McCotter (R-Livonia)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 8
Cook District Numbers - EVEN

GOP Candidate - Thad McCotter
Dem Candidate - Natalie Mosher

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 54%
McCain - 45%

2004:
Bush - 53%
Kerry – 47%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 47%

This is a tough district created to elect a republican without damaging the neighbors. It worked for McCotter, but neighbor Knollenberg was defeated in 2008. This district was created from the old 11th and 13th districts. The 13th was democrat and based in Ann Arbor. It was the old Lynn Rivers/Bill Ford district. The old 11th district was Knollenberg's. This was an open seat in 2002. The democrats wanted Lynn Rivers to move to Wayne County and run against McCotter. She declined and ran against John Dingell in the new 15th which included her home Washtenaw County portion of her district.

McCotter is a good fit for the district and is a balancing test. He has an intellectual side as well as a populist side, showing that both of them can exist without being a squish. McCotter is not that. He takes a stand, speaks his mind, backs up his points and lets the chips fall where they may. I respect that. He's not a cookie cutter congressman.

The 11th is a diverse district that covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Novi, Novi Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, and a small portion of Waterford Twp in Oakland County. It covers the City of Northville in both Wayne and Oakland County. It covers the City of Belleville, Canton Twp, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Livonia, Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, Redford Twp, Van Buren Twp, the City of Wayne, and the City of Westland in Wayne County. It has some strong Republican areas and some democrat strongholds. It has affluent areas that are both socially conservative and liberal. He has a large number of blue collar areas. The one thing the whole district has in common is the auto industry support. If I had to characterize this district overall, it's slightly populist, and socially center-right. It's a dangerous district and McCotter had his closest race in the democrat year of 2008, winning by slightly under 21,000 votes as the district flipped to Obama.

If the state stops the bleeding overall trends from 06 and 08, there's good and bad news for McCotter. The good news is that West Oakland is still strong, and capable of being stronger. The bad news is Redford (Union and also Detroiters moving there) and Dearborn Heights (same, although more Arabic population than Detroiter there). Those two areas significantly went more blue from 2000 to 2004. They were competitive and leaned conservative democrat at one time, but newcomers are moving there and taking their blueness with them. There were close in 2000, not anymore. They aren't liberal areas like Plymouth, but they are democrat. It's the new Westland, populist democrat. Westland (UAW) and Wayne (UAW) have been blue for a long, long time, Westland becoming more so with a larger minority population. Populist Democrat. Belleville (UAW and Airport) and Van Buren Twp (same) in the airport area, has been locally competitive, but blue for a long time at the top of the ticket. Canton's shifting closer to its old democrat roots from long past. It was very close in 2000 and 2004, flipping like most of the state in 06/08. Canton border Ypsilanti in Washtenaw County and is a close drive to Ann Arbor along Michigan Avenue and  Ford Rd. It's less populist (but more populist than Scio Twp) than Redford/Westland, but more of a cultural liberalism than those areas, although not nearly on the level of Scio Twp. It splits the difference. Plymouth and Northville are more affluent and were Republican strongholds, less so today. It's a lot less populist than Canton, and is more closer to Oakland County in a lot of its views than Wayne County. Mitt Romney types would do well there, and they would crash and burn in Redford.

Livonia on the other hand, has a bit of everything. Working Class areas, affluent areas, and all areas in between. It's also heavily Catholic, and a little more social conservative than Plymouth or maybe Canton, but not as economically conservative. By little more, I mean that. It's not nearly Ann Arbor, and it's not nearly Ottawa County either. It was democrat years ago, moved a little to the right, and has been competitive, but leaned republican for awhile. Livonia flipped in 08 back to its McNamara days, but McCotter still won there easily, as did John Walsh for state rep. It actually went more red in 2004 than 2000 though, so don't give up here. It broke the opposite trends of Plymouth and Canton and Northville. Livonia is more republican than Canton now, although Plymouth and Northville are still more republican than Livonia by percentage. It's a middle America mainstream suburb, not fond of negative campaigning, and will vote the man over the party. Livonia's backed Thad and Joan McCotter, Lyn Banks, Mike Cox (his home), John Walsh, and Laura Toy. On their city council are both republicans and democrats. It's also the former home of Ed McNamara, who was possibly the most powerful democrat in the state as Wayne County Executive. Before he was the executive, he was mayor of Livonia. It's an important area if the Republicans are going to win statewide again.

Western Oakland is more friendly to the GOP overall. Walled Lake is competitive (blue in 2000), and Novi (which raised my alarm bells in 04) and Waterford was in 08, but the rest of it is still solidly red outside of Wixom. If the bleeding is stopped and the area reverts to 2000 or 2004, only Walled Lake will be expected to be close in 2010. We'll see what happens in 2010/2012.Wixom has some GOP leanings outside of one precinct which is heavily democrat. It's the home of a large apartment complex. That caused it to flip in 2008. Turnout is key here. The center of GOP strength in Oakland County is now Milford and South Lyon to the west, and the 8th District's Independence Township to the North. If the GOP will win Oakland County, it starts with those areas.

McCotter's run ahead of the top of the ticket in every election. Here's his 2002 numbers against a spirited challenge by Kevin Kelly. Even with McCotter's solid win, there's a blue base within this district that reaches to all levels.That's why this district is never a safe bet.

2002 Elections	McCotter	Kelley	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	7,759	4,296	365	12,420	3463	62.47%	34.59%	27.88%
Highland Twp	4,266	2,057	247	6,570	2209	64.93%	31.31%	33.62%
Lyon Twp	2,483	1,144	107	3,734	1339	66.50%	30.64%	35.86%
Milford Twp	3,747	1,829	190	5,766	1918	64.98%	31.72%	33.26%
City of Northville	1,072	496	24	1,592	576	67.34%	31.16%	36.18%
City of Novi	9,879	5,404	412	15,695	4475	62.94%	34.43%	28.51%
Novi Twp	52	24	1	77	28	67.53%	31.17%	36.36%
City of South Lyon	2,058	1,240	111	3,409	818	60.37%	36.37%	24.00%
City of Walled Lake	1,084	866	85	2,035	218	53.27%	42.56%	10.71%
Waterford Twp	1,384	1,000	96	2,480	384	55.81%	40.32%	15.48%
Waterford 1-a				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 931				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
White Lake Twp	5,801	3,344	330	9,475	2457	61.22%	35.29%	25.93%
City of Wixom	2,257	1,158	110	3,525	1099	64.03%	32.85%	31.18%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Belleville	592	622	44	1,258	-30	47.06%	49.44%	-2.38%
Canton Twp	13,679	9,632	951	24,262	4047	56.38%	39.70%	16.68%
Dearborn Heights	2,103	2,192	166	4,461	-89	47.14%	49.14%	-2.00%
DH 6				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH7				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH8				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH9				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH10				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH11				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH12				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH13				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH37				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH38				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH941				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH942				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Garden City	3,978	4,118	355	8,451	-140	47.07%	48.73%	-1.66%
City of Livonia	24,971	13,804	881	39,656	11167	62.97%	34.81%	28.16%
City of Northville	800	469	24	1,293	331	61.87%	36.27%	25.60%
Northville Twp	6,464	2,833	200	9,497	3631	68.06%	29.83%	38.23%
City of Plymouth	2,118	1,351	141	3,610	767	58.67%	37.42%	21.25%
Plymouth Twp	7,549	4,043	361	11,953	3506	63.16%	33.82%	29.33%
Redford Twp	8,039	8,184	624	16,847	-145	47.72%	48.58%	-0.86%
Van Buren Twp	2,908	3,539	297	6,744	-631	43.12%	52.48%	-9.36%
City of Wayne	1,859	2,696	174	4,729	-837	39.31%	57.01%	-17.70%
City of Westland	9,149	11,059	697	20,905	-1910	43.76%	52.90%	-9.14%
Total	126,051	87,400	6,993	220,444	38651	57.18%	39.65%	17.53%

Here's the 2004 numbers.

2004 Elections	McCotter	Truran	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	11,879	6,462	450	18,791	5417	63.22%	34.39%	28.83%
Highland Twp	6,476	3,077	228	9,781	3399	66.21%	31.46%	34.75%
Lyon Twp	4,040	1,804	127	5,971	2236	67.66%	30.21%	37.45%
Milford Twp	5,508	2,517	188	8,213	2991	67.06%	30.65%	36.42%
City of Northville	1,351	663	42	2,056	688	65.71%	32.25%	33.46%
City of Novi	14,795	8,480	430	23,705	6315	62.41%	35.77%	26.64%
Novi Twp	75	34	2	111	41	67.57%	30.63%	36.94%
City of South Lyon	3,261	1,801	98	5,160	1460	63.20%	34.90%	28.29%
City of Walled Lake	1,629	1,331	82	3,042	298	53.55%	43.75%	9.80%
Waterford Twp	2,050	1,350	99	3,499	700	58.59%	38.58%	20.01%
Waterford 1-a				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 931				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
White Lake Twp	9,150	4,771	372	14,293	4379	64.02%	33.38%	30.64%
City of Wixom	3,432	2,084	133	5,649	1348	60.75%	36.89%	23.86%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Belleville	850	969	45	1,864	-119	45.60%	51.98%	-6.38%
Canton Twp	22,131	15,663	707	38,501	6468	57.48%	40.68%	16.80%
Dearborn Heights	2,751	3,275	117	6,143	-524	44.78%	53.31%	-8.53%
DH 6				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH7				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH8				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH9				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH10				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH11				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH12				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH13				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH37				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH38				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH941				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH942				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Garden City	6,165	6,327	336	12,828	-162	48.06%	49.32%	-1.26%
City of Livonia	33,157	19,321	902	53,380	13836	62.12%	36.20%	25.92%
City of Northville	1,043	623	29	1,695	420	61.53%	36.76%	24.78%
Northville Twp	9,717	4,193	185	14,095	5524	68.94%	29.75%	39.19%
City of Plymouth	2,801	1,936	107	4,844	865	57.82%	39.97%	17.86%
Plymouth Twp	10,533	5,542	224	16,299	4991	64.62%	34.00%	30.62%
Redford Twp	10,860	12,193	540	23,593	-1333	46.03%	51.68%	-5.65%
Van Buren Twp	4,823	6,433	291	11,547	-1610	41.77%	55.71%	-13.94%
City of Wayne	2,948	4,411	152	7,511	-1463	39.25%	58.73%	-19.48%
City of Westland	15,006	19,041	598	34,645	-4035	43.31%	54.96%	-11.65%
Total	186,431	134,301	6,484	327,216	52130	56.97%	41.04%	15.93%

2006 was closer and the ticket splitters saved him. McCotter ran against radio talk show host Tony Trupiano.

2006 Elections	McCotter	Trupiano	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	9,851	5,734	506	16,091	4117	61.22%	35.63%	25.59%
Highland Twp	5,058	2,694	272	8,024	2364	63.04%	33.57%	29.46%
Lyon Twp	3,300	1,606	155	5,061	1694	65.20%	31.73%	33.47%
Milford Twp	4,380	2,317	217	6,914	2063	63.35%	33.51%	29.84%
City of Northville	1,112	582	44	1,738	530	63.98%	33.49%	30.49%
City of Novi	11,599	7,501	446	19,546	4098	59.34%	38.38%	20.97%
Novi Twp	51	29	3	83	22	61.45%	34.94%	26.51%
City of South Lyon	2,563	1,547	113	4,223	1016	60.69%	36.63%	24.06%
City of Walled Lake	1,260	1,087	96	2,443	173	51.58%	44.49%	7.08%
Waterford Twp	1,494	1,168	107	2,769	326	53.95%	42.18%	11.77%
Waterford 1-a				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 931				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
White Lake Twp	7,082	4,318	425	11,825	2764	59.89%	36.52%	23.37%
City of Wixom	2,675	1,773	111	4,559	902	58.68%	38.89%	19.79%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Belleville	584	798	82	1,464	-214	39.89%	54.51%	-14.62%
Canton Twp	16,687	13,712	812	31,211	2975	53.47%	43.93%	9.53%
Dearborn Heights	1,959	2,786	158	4,903	-827	39.96%	56.82%	-16.87%
DH 6				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH7				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH8				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH9				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH10				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH11				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH12				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH13				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH37				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH38				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH941				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH942				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Garden City	4,434	5,022	427	9,883	-588	44.86%	50.81%	-5.95%
City of Livonia	25,844	17,194	1156	44,194	8650	58.48%	38.91%	19.57%
City of Northville	862	504	27	1,393	358	61.88%	36.18%	25.70%
Northville Twp	8,117	3,908	193	12,218	4209	66.43%	31.99%	34.45%
City of Plymouth	2,170	1,688	116	3,974	482	54.60%	42.48%	12.13%
Plymouth Twp	8,351	4,832	320	13,503	3519	61.85%	35.78%	26.06%
Redford Twp	7,741	10,178	576	18,495	-2437	41.85%	55.03%	-13.18%
Van Buren Twp	3,441	5,648	370	9,459	-2207	36.38%	59.71%	-23.33%
City of Wayne	2,188	3,239	233	5,660	-1051	38.66%	57.23%	-18.57%
City of Westland	10,856	14,385	919	26,160	-3529	41.50%	54.99%	-13.49%
Total	143,659	114,250	7,884	265,793	29409	54.05%	42.98%	11.06%

2008 was much closer. Ticket Splitters saved him.

2008 Elections	McCotter	Larkin	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	12,036	7,491	620	20,147	4545	59.74%	37.18%	22.56%
Highland Twp	6,217	3,450	367	10,034	2767	61.96%	34.38%	27.58%
Lyon Twp	4,369	2,162	217	6,748	2207	64.75%	32.04%	32.71%
Milford Twp	5,468	2,735	330	8,533	2733	64.08%	32.05%	32.03%
City of Northville	1,294	714	56	2,064	580	62.69%	34.59%	28.10%
City of Novi	14,675	10,864	689	26,228	3811	55.95%	41.42%	14.53%
Novi Twp	62	37	3	102	25	60.78%	36.27%	24.51%
City of South Lyon	3,222	1,999	160	5,381	1223	59.88%	37.15%	22.73%
City of Walled Lake	1,608	1,451	114	3,173	157	50.68%	45.73%	4.95%
Waterford Twp	1,736	1,441	144	3,321	295	52.27%	43.39%	8.88%
Waterford 1-a				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 931				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
White Lake Twp	8,772	5,595	351	14,718	3177	59.60%	38.01%	21.59%
City of Wixom	3,331	2,680	202	6,213	651	53.61%	43.14%	10.48%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Belleville	742	1,147	56	1,945	-405	38.15%	58.97%	-20.82%
Canton Twp	21,047	20,703	1153	42,903	344	49.06%	48.26%	0.80%
Dearborn Heights	2,440	3,437	127	6,004	-997	40.64%	57.25%	-16.61%
DH 6				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH7				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH8				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH9				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH10				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH11				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH12				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH13				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH37				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH38				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH941				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH942				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Garden City	5,753	6,607	505	12,865	-854	44.72%	51.36%	-6.64%
City of Livonia	31,114	21,286	1700	54,100	9828	57.51%	39.35%	18.17%
City of Northville	967	646	50	1,663	321	58.15%	38.85%	19.30%
Northville Twp	9,967	5,400	387	15,754	4567	63.27%	34.28%	28.99%
City of Plymouth	2,662	2,192	188	5,042	470	52.80%	43.47%	9.32%
Plymouth Twp	10,166	5,912	453	16,531	4254	61.50%	35.76%	25.73%
Redford Twp	8,750	13,925	911	23,586	-5175	37.10%	59.04%	-21.94%
Van Buren Twp	4,393	8,578	453	13,424	-4185	32.72%	63.90%	-31.18%
City of Wayne	2,782	4,670	167	7,619	-1888	36.51%	61.29%	-24.78%
City of Westland	13,888	21,503	1283	36,674	-7615	37.87%	58.63%	-20.76%
Total	177,461	156,625	10,686	344,772	20836	51.47%	45.43%	6.04%

Here's Bush's 2000 numbers.

2000 Elections	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	9,541	6,867	445	16,853	2674	56.61%	40.75%	15.87%
Highland Twp	5,131	3,486	338	8,955	1645	57.30%	38.93%	18.37%
Lyon Twp	2,815	1,792	146	4,753	1023	59.23%	37.70%	21.52%
Milford Twp	4,598	2,921	200	7,719	1677	59.57%	37.84%	21.73%
City of Northville	1,239	716	37	1,992	523	62.20%	35.94%	26.26%
City of Novi	12,339	8,667	554	21,560	3672	57.23%	40.20%	17.03%
Novi Twp	58	35	3	96	23	60.42%	36.46%	23.96%
City of South Lyon	2,464	2,123	116	4,703	341	52.39%	45.14%	7.25%
City of Walled Lake	1,436	1,462	100	2,998	-26	47.90%	48.77%	-0.87%
Waterford Twp				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 1-a	548	500	34	1,082	48	50.65%	46.21%	4.44%
Waterford 3	344	382	20	746	-38	46.11%	51.21%	-5.09%
Waterford 5	491	414	24	929	77	52.85%	44.56%	8.29%
Waterford 931	1,290	1,190	36	2,516	100	51.27%	47.30%	3.97%
White Lake Twp	7,279	5,203	335	12,817	2076	56.79%	40.59%	16.20%
City of Wixom	2,970	2,110	135	5,215	860	56.95%	40.46%	16.49%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Belleville	742	1,048	41	1,831	-306	40.52%	57.24%	-16.71%
Canton Twp	16,435	14,974	695	32,104	1461	51.19%	46.64%	4.55%
Dearborn Heights				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH 6	158	196	16	370	-38	42.70%	52.97%	-10.27%
DH7	266	290	19	575	-24	46.26%	50.43%	-4.17%
DH8	268	227	12	507	41	52.86%	44.77%	8.09%
DH9	181	227	15	423	-46	42.79%	53.66%	-10.87%
DH10	160	218	14	392	-58	40.82%	55.61%	-14.80%
DH11	206	221	15	442	-15	46.61%	50.00%	-3.39%
DH12	187	297	11	495	-110	37.78%	60.00%	-22.22%
DH13	267	262	12	541	5	49.35%	48.43%	0.92%
DH37	113	235	9	357	-122	31.65%	65.83%	-34.17%
DH38	216	246	12	474	-30	45.57%	51.90%	-6.33%
DH941	409	478	21	908	-69	45.04%	52.64%	-7.60%
DH942	20	38		58	-18	34.48%	65.52%	-31.03%
Garden City	5,050	6,919	305	12,274	-1869	41.14%	56.37%	-15.23%
City of Livonia	27,319	22,756	1577	51,652	4563	52.89%	44.06%	8.83%
City of Northville	915	667	44	1,626	248	56.27%	41.02%	15.25%
Northville Twp	6,954	4,058	281	11,293	2896	61.58%	35.93%	25.64%
City of Plymouth	2,366	2,243	179	4,788	123	49.42%	46.85%	2.57%
Plymouth Twp	8,725	6,029	384	15,138	2696	57.64%	39.83%	17.81%
Redford Twp	9,506	12,143	668	22,317	-2637	42.60%	54.41%	-11.82%
Van Buren Twp	3,578	5,232	272	9,082	-1654	39.40%	57.61%	-18.21%
City of Wayne	2,478	4,178	186	6,842	-1700	36.22%	61.06%	-24.85%
City of Westland	12,348	18,310	910	31,568	-5962	39.12%	58.00%	-18.89%
Total	151,410	139,360	8,221	298,991	12050	50.64%	46.61%	4.03%

2004 numbers.

2004 Elections	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	12,019	7,838	196	20,053	4181	59.94%	39.09%	20.85%
Highland Twp	6,509	3,849	104	10,462	2660	62.22%	36.79%	25.43%
Lyon Twp	4,082	2,274	68	6,424	1808	63.54%	35.40%	28.14%
Milford Twp	5,413	3,252	77	8,742	2161	61.92%	37.20%	24.72%
City of Northville	1,269	866	22	2,157	403	58.83%	40.15%	18.68%
City of Novi	14,484	10,612	219	25,315	3872	57.22%	41.92%	15.30%
Novi Twp	67	40	1	108	27	62.04%	37.04%	25.00%
City of South Lyon	3,191	2,236	40	5,467	955	58.37%	40.90%	17.47%
City of Walled Lake	1,664	1,580	31	3,275	84	50.81%	48.24%	2.56%
Waterford Twp				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 1-a	719	423	13	1,155	296	62.25%	36.62%	25.63%
Waterford 3	401	349	8	758	52	52.90%	46.04%	6.86%
Waterford 5	639	484	10	1,133	155	56.40%	42.72%	13.68%
Waterford 931	433	323	14	770	110	56.23%	41.95%	14.29%
White Lake Twp	9,439	5,821	135	15,395	3618	61.31%	37.81%	23.50%
City of Wixom	3,484	2,552	55	6,091	932	57.20%	41.90%	15.30%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Belleville	856	1,131	18	2,005	-275	42.69%	56.41%	-13.72%
Canton Twp	21,452	19,743	363	41,558	1709	51.62%	47.51%	4.11%
Dearborn Heights				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH 6	148	257	1	406	-109	36.45%	63.30%	-26.85%
DH7	288	380	13	681	-92	42.29%	55.80%	-13.51%
DH8	238	274	8	520	-36	45.77%	52.69%	-6.92%
DH9	195	232	8	435	-37	44.83%	53.33%	-8.51%
DH10	152	237	11	400	-85	38.00%	59.25%	-21.25%
DH11	272	301	14	587	-29	46.34%	51.28%	-4.94%
DH12	243	336	9	588	-93	41.33%	57.14%	-15.82%
DH13	253	263	4	520	-10	48.65%	50.58%	-1.92%
DH37	108	263	3	374	-155	28.88%	70.32%	-41.44%
DH38	205	282	11	498	-77	41.16%	56.63%	-15.46%
DH941	82	119	3	204	-37	40.20%	58.33%	-18.14%
DH942	602	776	17	1,395	-174	43.15%	55.63%	-12.47%
Garden City	6,241	7,588	143	13,972	-1347	44.67%	54.31%	-9.64%
City of Livonia	30,626	25,148	561	56,335	5478	54.36%	44.64%	9.72%
City of Northville	955	790	15	1,760	165	54.26%	44.89%	9.38%
Northville Twp	9,110	5,676	95	14,881	3434	61.22%	38.14%	23.08%
City of Plymouth	2,557	2,553	57	5,167	4	49.49%	49.41%	0.08%
Plymouth Twp	9,828	6,987	167	16,982	2841	57.87%	41.14%	16.73%
Redford Twp	10,244	14,276	332	24,852	-4032	41.22%	57.44%	-16.22%
Van Buren Twp	4,993	7,353	660	13,006	-2360	38.39%	56.54%	-18.15%
City of Wayne	3,037	4,852	72	7,961	-1815	38.15%	60.95%	-22.80%
City of Westland	14,953	21,208	589	36,750	-6255	40.69%	57.71%	-17.02%
Total	181,451	163,524	4,167	349,142	17927	51.97%	46.84%	5.13%

2008 numbers. Big flips here, but the biggest was Wixom. That was due to one precinct. Those familiar with the area know about the gigantic apartment complex there. That's the big flip. Obama entire margin of victory in Wixom was due to that area. Think Bath Twp in the 8th. The rest I'd say is general trends of 2008 and a weak candidate for the GOP at the top. I don't know if there's new building there in Wixom, of it just the apartment dwellers got out and voted for Mr. Obama.

2008 Elections	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Commerce Twp	11,428	9,900	231	21,559	1528	53.01%	45.92%	7.09%
Highland Twp	5,987	4,533	231	10,751	1454	55.69%	42.16%	13.52%
Lyon Twp	4,120	3,009	112	7,241	1111	56.90%	41.56%	15.34%
Milford Twp	5,105	3,851	145	9,101	1254	56.09%	42.31%	13.78%
City of Northville	1,127	1,001	21	2,149	126	52.44%	46.58%	5.86%
City of Novi	13,264	14,397	350	28,011	-1133	47.35%	51.40%	-4.04%
Novi Twp	52	57	2	111	-5	46.85%	51.35%	-4.50%
City of South Lyon	2,983	2,712	91	5,786	271	51.56%	46.87%	4.68%
City of Walled Lake	1,517	1,823	78	3,418	-306	44.38%	53.34%	-8.95%
Waterford Twp				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 1-a	537	475	14	1,026	62	52.34%	46.30%	6.04%
Waterford 3	339	380	23	742	-41	45.69%	51.21%	-5.53%
Waterford 5	429	527	22	978	-98	43.87%	53.89%	-10.02%
Waterford 931	2,189	2,251	88	4,528	-62	48.34%	49.71%	-1.37%
White Lake Twp	8,563	7,196	302	16,061	1367	53.32%	44.80%	8.51%
City of Wixom	3,077	3,495	111	6,683	-418	46.04%	52.30%	-6.25%
Wayne County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Belleville	733	1,315	22	2,070	-582	35.41%	63.53%	-28.12%
Canton Twp	19,078	26,092	658	45,828	-7014	41.63%	56.93%	-15.31%
Dearborn Heights				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
DH 6	96	313	5	414	-217	23.19%	75.60%	-52.42%
DH7	242	413	9	664	-171	36.45%	62.20%	-25.75%
DH8	196	281	7	484	-85	40.50%	58.06%	-17.56%
DH9	142	282	8	432	-140	32.87%	65.28%	-32.41%
DH10	126	216	10	352	-90	35.80%	61.36%	-25.57%
DH11	185	321	10	516	-136	35.85%	62.21%	-26.36%
DH12	180	331	13	524	-151	34.35%	63.17%	-28.82%
DH13	199	280	8	487	-81	40.86%	57.49%	-16.63%
DH37	86	305	7	398	-219	21.61%	76.63%	-55.03%
DH38	162	278	20	460	-116	35.22%	60.43%	-25.22%
DH941	71	144	4	219	-73	32.42%	65.75%	-33.33%
DH942	697	804	36	1,537	-107	45.35%	52.31%	-6.96%
Garden City	5,466	7,976	314	13,756	-2510	39.74%	57.98%	-18.25%
City of Livonia	28,190	28,358	952	57,500	-168	49.03%	49.32%	-0.29%
City of Northville	846	895	19	1,760	-49	48.07%	50.85%	-2.78%
Northville Twp	9,025	7,497	214	16,736	1528	53.93%	44.80%	9.13%
City of Plymouth	2,277	3,013	108	5,398	-736	42.18%	55.82%	-13.63%
Plymouth Twp	9,003	8,115	276	17,394	888	51.76%	46.65%	5.11%
Redford Twp	7,891	16,540	526	24,957	-8649	31.62%	66.27%	-34.66%
Van Buren Twp	4,375	9,703	205	14,283	-5328	30.63%	67.93%	-37.30%
City of Wayne	2,700	5,353	147	8,200	-2653	32.93%	65.28%	-32.35%
City of Westland	13,021	25,262	743	39,026	-12241	33.36%	64.73%	-31.37%
Total	165,704	199,694	6,142	371,540	-33990	44.60%	53.75%	-9.15%

Breakdown by area:
Oakland County
2000 - Bush 56.54%, Gore 40.75%, 92934 votes, 14675 vote spread
2002 - McCotter 62.66%, Kelley 34.23%, 66778 votes, 18964 vote spread
2004 - Bush 59.48%, Kerry 39.61%, 107305 votes, 21313 vote spread
2004 - McCotter 63.47%, Truran 34.28%, 100271 votes, 29272 vote spread
2006 - McCotter 60.55%, Trupiano 36.45%, 83276 votes, 20069 vote spread
2008 - McCain 51.39%, Obama 47.07%, 118145 votes, 5110 vote spread
2008 - McCotter 58.87%, Larkin 38.08%, 106662 votes, 22171 vote spread.

Wayne County
2000 - Gore 49.25%, Bush 47.98%, 206057 votes, -2625 vote spread
2002 - McCotter 54.80%, Kelley 42.00%, 153666 votes, 19667 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 50.20%, Bush 48.67%, 241837 votes, -3387 vote spread
2004 - McCotter 54.10%, Truran 44.03%, 226945 votes, 22858 vote spread
2006 - McCotter 51.08%, Trupiano 45.97%, 182517 votes, 9370 vote spread
2008 - Obama 56.86%, McCain 41.43%, 253395 votes, -39100 vote spread
2008 - Larkin 48.72%, McCotter 48.16%, 238,110 votes, -1335 vote spread

The farm club is split here. All of the Wayne County state reps are now democrats outside of John Walsh in Livonia. Walsh is the last man standing, and won easily in 08. We got lucky with the candidate there. Oakland's farm club here is almost all republican outside of the West Bloomfield/Commerce district.

St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.

St Senate 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Seiferlein/Cherry	41445	65771		107,216	-24326	38.66%	61.34%	-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry	37852	47848		85,700	-9996	44.17%	55.83%	-11.66%

St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....

St. Senate 15th	GOP	Dem
06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski	66,524	45,782	3101	115,407	20742	57.64%	39.67%	17.97%
02 - Cassis/Carlson	57,583	35,305	2340	95,228	22278	60.47%	37.07%	23.39%

St Senate 8th - Covers Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte in Wayne County. This district is split between the Detroit Districts, Dingell's district, and also the 11th. It's a solid democrat stronghold between Downriver and the Airport area. It's an open seat opened up by Ray Basham being termed out.

St Senate 8th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Kalsic/Basham	21727	58501	2197	82,425	-36774	26.36%	70.97%	-44.62%
02 - Montelauro/Basham	22128	43874	2312	68,314	-21746	32.39%	64.22%	-31.83%

St Senate 7th - Covers Belleville, Brownstown Twp, Canton Twp, City of Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Twp, Huron Twp, City of Northville (Wayne County side), Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, City of Rockwood, Sumpter Twp, City of Trenton, Van Buren Twp, and City of Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a swing district, if not slightly democrat leaning. Bruce Patterson had two tough wins and is termed out. Patterson won, by cutting into the normal GOP losses in the downriver portions of the district, while winning Canton, Plymouth Twp and Northville. This will be a major battle in 2010. It's been a battleground district for years, as was its similar district pre-redistricting represented by Lorne Bennett.

St Senate 7th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Patterson/Slavens	59,647	56,156		115,803	3491	51.51%	48.49%	3.01%
02 - Patterson/Mans	52,435	40,675		93,110	11760	56.32%	43.68%	12.63%

St Senate 6th - Covers Garden City, Livonia, Redford Twp, and Westland in Wayne County - This is a very difficult district that flipped in 2006. Laura Toy won a difficult race in 2002, but Glenn Anderson won in what some considered an upset, in 2006. The trouble here is that Livonia has to outvote the spread in three municipalities to win. It was possible when Redford was close if enough crossvotes happen in Garden City and Westland. With Redford being a stronghold now with the other two, it's easier said than done. It's not the Redford of 20 years ago, or even 10 years ago.

St Senate 6th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Toy/Anderson	47,596	52,500		100,096	-4904	47.55%	52.45%	-4.90%
02 - Toy/DeHart	46,257	39,152		85,409	7105	54.16%	45.84%	8.32%

St Senate 5th - Dearborn Heights, Detroit, and Inkster - This is a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn Heights separates black majority Inkster and Detroit, so it's included. Detroit itself is the most democrat city over 100,000 people in the country. Tupac Hunter is the incumbent.

St Senate 5th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Malhalab/Hunter	8,164	56,252	1510	65,926	-48088	12.38%	85.33%	-72.94%
02 - Patrick/Leland	10,334	49,780		60,114	-39446	17.19%	82.81%	-65.62%

St Rep 66 - Covers City of Brighton, Brighton Twp, Genoa Twp, Green Oak Twp, Marion Twp, and Oceola Twp in Livingston County, along with Milford Twp in Oakland County. Solidly Republican. Bill Rogers, former county commissioner, is the current representative winning an open seat in 2008 against Donna Anderson. Before Bill had the district, it was held by Chris Ward, Judie Scranton, and Susan Munsell. The election here is usually the primary.

St Rep 66th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - B.Rogers/Anderson	32,138	19,146	2020	53,304	12992	60.29%	35.92%	24.37%
06 - Ward/McGonegal	27,774	14,472		42,246	13302	65.74%	34.26%	31.49%
04 - Ward/Block	35,623	14,432		50,055	21191	71.17%	28.83%	42.34%
02 - Ward/Block	23,599	8,826		32,425	14773	72.78%	27.22%	45.56%

St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.

St Rep 44th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - E.Kowall/Venie	33,266	16,683		49,949	16583	66.60%	33.40%	33.20%
06 - Stakoe/Venie	27,124	13,264		40,388	13860	67.16%	32.84%	34.32%
04 - Stakoe/Scrase	33,596	14,498	1400	49,494	19098	67.88%	29.29%	38.59%
02 - Stakoe/Bryan	22,788	9,748		32,536	13040	70.04%	29.96%	40.08%

St Rep 43rd - Covers Waterford Twp and Northernmost West Bloomfield - This is a competitive seat which was a big battle in 2002. Gail Haines took the open seat in 2008 keeping it GOP in another extremely close race. This could be another battle in 2010.

St Rep 43rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Haines/Hudson	20,219	19,373	1460	41,052	846	49.25%	47.19%	2.06%
06 - Amos/Riddell	19,292	13,406		32,698	5886	59.00%	41.00%	18.00%
04 - Amos/Hudson	23,665	18,193		41,858	5472	56.54%	43.46%	13.07%
02 - Amos/Fortino	14,788	13,157		27,945	1631	52.92%	47.08%	5.84%

St Rep 38th - Covers Lyon Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom in Oakland County. Hugh Crawford won the open seat in 2008.

St Rep 38th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Crawford/Tindall	27,840	20,547		48,387	7293	57.54%	42.46%	15.07%
06 - DeRoche/Jarrell	21,803	14,595		36,398	7208	59.90%	40.10%	19.80%
04 - DeRoche/Morgan	27,406	17,234		44,640	10172	61.39%	38.61%	22.79%
02 - DeRoche/Premo	18,561	9,973		28,534	8588	65.05%	34.95%	30.10%

St Rep 21st - Covers Belleville, Van Buren Twp, and part of Canton Twp in Wayne County - This district flipped in an 08 open seat. It was beforehand Bruce Patterson and Phil LaJoy's seat for a 12 year period. It was a competitive district, but the blue reached the bottom of the ticket in 08 with Canton's flip, along with Van Buren and Belleville. Dian Slavens is the incumbent.

St Rep 21st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - T.LaJoy/D.Slavens	24,204	27,805	1784	53,793	-3601	44.99%	51.69%	-6.69%
06 - P.LaJoy/Sinis	21,481	16,775		38,256	4706	56.15%	43.85%	12.30%
04 - P.LaJoy/Mayer	27,225	19,979		47,204	7246	57.68%	42.32%	15.35%
02 - P.LaJoy/M.Slavens	15,591	12,769	640	29,000	2822	53.76%	44.03%	9.73%

St Rep 20th - Covers part of Canton Twp, City of Northville, Northville Twp,City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, and the City of Wayne in Wayne County. Infighting thanks to RINO John Stewart caused a lot of problems here. RINOS to me aren't liberal Republicans. RINOs to me are people like Stewart who really are democrats who support them. Stewart finally switched parties now, but he backed Obama, and revealed himself to have backed Kerry and Gore too. He was considering a senate run, but apparently isn't going for it. I hope he runs and gets trounced by someone downriver. He wouldn't sell down there. Too leftist and doesn't understand working people. Marc Corriveau is the democrat, and is actually an improvement over Stewart if you can say that. He won in 06 and 08 with one term left. Wayne made the difference, along with the City of Plymouth (competitive) and Northville (which flipped). He made it close in Plymouth Twp, which allowed Wayne to give him the win. This will be an important takeover attempt in 2010. Hopefully with Stewey out of the way causing problems, the GOP will be united between moderates and conservatives to take Michigan back.

St Rep 20th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Vorva/Corriveau	21,142	30,415		51,557	-9273	41.01%	58.99%	-17.99%
06 - Abbo/Corriveau	19,146	20,056		39,202	-910	48.84%	51.16%	-2.32%
04 - Stewart/Corriveau	28,732	19,448		48,180	9284	59.63%	40.37%	19.27%
02 - Stewart/Blackwell	19,910	11,581	1027	32,518	8329	61.23%	35.61%	25.61%

St Rep 19th - Most of the City of Livonia in Wayne County - This is the only GOP state seat right now in Wayne County. John Walsh had a big win for the open seat here. This is a must defense seat if the house will be taken back in 2010.

St Rep 19th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Walsh/King	29,752	19,829		49,581	9923	60.01%	39.99%	20.01%
06 - Pastor/Duggan	22,632	18,377		41,009	4255	55.19%	44.81%	10.38%
04 - Pastor/Gebhardt	26,265	23,168		49,433	3097	53.13%	46.87%	6.27%
02 - Pastor/Lowry	22,170	12,210	895	35,275	9960	62.85%	34.61%	28.24%

St Rep 18th - City of Westland in Wayne County. This district has been democrat for at least 12 years, probably more. They prefer more cultural moderates and populists than they do Ann Arbor types. Richard LeBlanc is a two term incumbent who won in 06 and 08. Glenn Anderson and Eileen DeHart held the seat before LeBlanc. This is a John Dingell type of district.

St Rep 18th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - LeBlanc		28,955	3730	32,685	-28955	0.00%	88.59%	-88.59%
06 - Durante/LeBlanc	6,298	19,067	710	26,075	-12769	24.15%	73.12%	-48.97%
04 - Lipford/Anderson	10,811	22,773	541	34,125	-11962	31.68%	66.73%	-35.05%
02 - Lipford/Anderson	6,218	14,619		20,837	-8401	29.84%	70.16%	-40.32%

St Rep 17th - Covers part of Dearborn Heights, Redford Twp, and a small part of Livonia in Wayne County. This was actually competitive in 2002, although the district has been democrat since somewhat pro-gun democrat Bob Brown took over in the 1990's over an anti-gun Republican. Since then the seat voted for Brown, Paltenko, and most recently Andy Dillon. This district is now similar to the Westland district in politics.

St Rep 17th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Eggers/Dillon	14,311	27,864		42,175	-13553	33.93%	66.07%	-32.14%
06 - Clampitt/Dillon	7,336	25,158		32,494	-17822	22.58%	77.42%	-54.85%
04 - Husk/Dillon	16,202	25,180	1084	42,466	-8978	38.15%	59.29%	-21.14%
02 - Handy/Paltenko	14,091	14,772	907	29,770	-681	47.33%	49.62%	-2.29%

St Rep 16th - Covers Allen Park, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Inkster in Wayne County. This district is solidly democrat with Garden City and Inkster as the anchors. Bob Constan is the current rep.

St Rep 16th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Smith/Constan	9,133	28,195		37,328	-19062	24.47%	75.53%	-51.07%
06 - DeLozier/Constan	7,002	19,346		26,348	-12344	26.58%	73.42%	-46.85%
04 - Lauster/Plakas	9,259	25,756	1626	36,641	-16497	25.27%	70.29%	-45.02%
02 - Homeier/Plakas	5,595	16,693	913	23,201	-11098	24.12%	71.95%	-47.83%

This is a competitive district that must be competed for in every election. McCotter dodged a bullet in 2008 considering the amount of money the democrat spent in that campaign. One guarantee is that he won't be caught off guard in 2010. This will be a district to watch in 2010, and is a must win for the GOP to take back the house, and also a must win at the top of the ticket as well take back state government from Granholm's poor job as governor. 

Updated 5-18-2010 - I think we dodged two bullets for this district. One is Andy Dillon, running for governor. The other is Glenn Anderson who is running for re-election as state senator. Natalie Mosher is relatively unknown, and isn't who I'd expect the democrats to send to go after McCotter who had a narrow win in 2008. I still wouldn't take this seat for granted, but I'm less concerned now than I was going into this cycle.