Brenda Lawrence running in MI-14

The primary in the 14th just got a major shake-up. I'm not surprised at this, but it's still big. I think Conyers switched districts because he wants no part of a one on one vs Lawrence.

Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence said today that she plans to run for Congress in a district that already features a race with two incumbent Congressmen.

She will formally announce her intentions on Feb. 1, Lawrence said, but she’s also been telling people in the district for months that she plans on running.

I happen to appreciate this comment by Lawrence a bit. That hits a little at Clarke (although he did represent Detroit's East Side) and hits a lot at Peters. I think Peters will be a non-factor outside of maybe West Bloomfield. He's just a yesman and a toady who carpetbagged. Clarke and Lawrence as far as I know don't have the same animosity towards them from whitey as Conyers does.

“It’s a district I live in and while that may not mean something to others, it does mean something to me,” Lawrence said.

Using Dave's redistricting website, the approximate numbers are 337,000 in Detroit, 309,000 in Oakland County, and 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit (Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods). The Detroit Part was 86% black and 97% for Obama. If they vote in a primary, we know which side it will be. Dems. Will they vote for Clarke? He's known more on the East Side, but what about West Side Detroiters. Southfield is right next door. City or
proximity. The 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit is more competitive. If there is local partisan primaries, some of them may vote there, although I think there will be crossovers because the Grosse Pointe state rep districts are now split. The Oakland County portion is 48% White and about 40% Black. It went 75% for Obama, while extremely high, significantly less than Detroit. Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Oak Park will probably vote heavily for her with geography, but will Pontiac further North? Pontiac is a different community than the other three areas (or at least much of Southfield and Oak Park). Will they be open to Clarke or even Peters.

This will be an interesting August in many districts, and this is going to be one of them. We have competitive primaries so far in the 5th, 6th, 13th, and 14th. There might be more. We'll find out for sure in May at the filing deadline.

Peters to run in the 14th District

Interesting decision here.

From the Detroit News

Detroit— The races for Congress became clearer Thursday as U.S. Rep. Gary Peters announced he'll challenge for the Democratic nomination in the 14th District and longtime U.S. Rep. John Conyers decided he will run in the new 13th District.

With the state losing a seat in Congress due to population loss, Peters was the odd-man-out as his old 9th District was carved up, leaving him without a seat. Under the same boundaries, Conyers' 14th District was redrawn to include portions of Wayne and Oakland counties, but not much of his traditional base.

Part of the logjam was resolved when U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Detroit, announced he'd run in the new 14th District, which includes areas he now represents. That opened the door for speculation about whether Conyers would then run in the 13th, a move that a source close to Conyers confirmed to The News on Thursday.

Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, on Thursday told supporters he'll run for office in the new 14th District.

"… Congressional districts are just lines on a map," Peters, serving his second term in Congress, said in an email to supporters. "I believe that regardless of where we call home, we all want the same things: economic security, fairness from government, and an honest chance to find success and happiness."

"I've spent my life fighting for these values."

Also eying the seat are Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence and Southfield Treasurer Irv Lowenberg.

Lines on a map, Peters? Bad choice of words when describing people's homes. I don't think people would buy that line if I ran for office in the nearby 7th or 11th districts which border Green Oak. The area Peters represents now in this district is Pontiac, Farmington Hills, Orchard Lake, Keego Harbor, and West Bloomfield. He's currently in the 9th along with Sander Levin in a district that's really mostly the old 12th. If I was Peters, I'd have instead mentioned that I represented the people in Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, and Pontiac in Congress, and am running to represent those as well as the new areas of this district.

John Conyers is running in the 13th instead, while Hansen Clarke is running in the 14th. I don't find that controversial as they are in the same city. Detroiters representing Detroit.

However, neither Conyers or Clarke is going to get a free pass. Conyers will be facing State Senator Bert Johnson (Highland Park) and also State Rep Shanelle Jackson (Detroit). There may be others, but those are in so far. I think Conyers is favored, but if someone goes after the Redford/Westland/Garden City/Dearborn Heights votes, this could get interesting. I don't think most of them care for Mr Monica Conyers. I think they would gladly consider a strong alternative candidate.

Clarke I think has a easier battle with Peters who became infamous with his Obamacare vote. If Brenda Lawrence jumps in, I think she'll have a very good chance to win (more as pro-Lawrence rather than anti-Clarke). Peters was able to win last time largely because of Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield. Those areas all tilt democrat, but will they vote for Peters over the well known and not very controversial Lawrence? Outside of Bloomfield, I doubt it, and that includes the white folks. Over Clarke? I don't know. Clarke isn't Conyers and doesn't have as much of controversial demeanor to suburbanites. A lot of people don't know who he is, outside of a recent state legislature and the guy who beat Carolyn Kilpatrick. The fact that he beat Kwame's mom gets him some credit in his favor right off the bat.

As a Republican, I don't see a lot of difference between any of them from a voting record standpoint, only in style differences and committee differences. Conyers is on judiciary. Clarke is on science and homeland security. I wouldn't mind seeing a gun grabber off of judiciary. I'd rather see Clarke win than Peters, since Peters doesn't need statewide traction with his ambitions and Oakland County base.

Clarke and Conyers to likely switch districts

This has been rumored for awhile. From Politico

Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) avoided a perilous primary challenge Sunday when neighboring Rep. Hansen Clarke paved the way for the two Michigan Democrats to essentially swap congressional districts ahead of their reelection bids.

The maneuvering came less than two weeks after Republican Gov. Rick Snyder signed into law a new congressional map that carved up both Conyers’ and Clarke’s districts in a way that had them each representing many of the others’ constituents — a dynamic that led several Democrats to eye a primary against Conyers. But Clarke, a freshman, announced Sunday that he would run in the 14th District now held by Conyers — something Conyers had been quietly pushing for behind the scenes for weeks.

Here's the map. "Mr Monica" Conyers is in the Palmer Park neighborhood on Detroit's Northwest side. It's in that stretch of the 14th north of Highland Park. The old district was more of a West Side district. Clarke's in the 13th, but will be running in the 14th. He's on Detroit's East side, and a lot of the 14th represents that area. It's not a controversial carpetbagger type of move with their West/East side histories.

I think this is very significant though in regards to the primary. A Democrat will win these districts barring a Bill Jefferson type of situation, but these districts are now about 55% VRA minority districts instead of 65%+ districts. It is conceivable that a non-Detroit candidate, or even a white candidate, can win those districts.

That's more likely in the 14th, with Oakland County and the Grosse Pointes both in that district, being hostile to certain Detroit candidates. Conyers is more outspoken and is perceived as more confrontational in style than Clarke, and is choosing the district strictly in Wayne County and without the Pointes. His primary path is - at least right now, easier than Clarke's. Clarke will have a tougher path on paper, but I think he'd do better in Oakland/Pointes than Conyers. The Pointes lean republican, but will often vote in Democrat primaries in non gubernatorial elections. The state rep seat there is competitive, but the other districts are solidly democrat. They don't like "Mr Monica" Conyers. They didn't like the Barbara Rose Collins. They didn't like Kwame Kilpatrick, and took it out on his mom. Hansen Clarke isn't in that category as far as I know. Conservatives don't like his voting record, but they don't like the voting record of Gary Peters either. These potential primaries are more about style, corruption, and attitude than the actual voting records.

Brenda Lawrence, Southfield mayor, may be running in Clarke's district. Gary Peters (lives in 9th, next door to Pontiac/W.Bloomfield), and Tim Melton (Pontiac or neighboring Auburn Hills) also might run. Another candidate is Bert Johnson, a state senator from the City of Detroit. He planned on running against Conyers, not Clarke. I don't know if he'll change his plans or not. He has won several times as a state legislator though. Other than that, I don't know much about him. I think the biggest factor in how a primary challenge goes will be the mouths of the candidates or their top aides, and how antagonistic each particular candidate is towards suburbs or whitey (not the same thing). With less and less of the district being in Detroit, the key is for there to be a balance in style not ticking off either side too much. This district would favor more Dennis Archer and less Sharon McPhail. That's why I think Clarke would be a much tougher opponent to challenge in this district than "Mr Monica" Conyers. There isn't the level of dislike for Clarke outside of the city as there is for the name Conyers (Or Kilpatrick, Rose-Collins, Coleman A Young). I don't think Peters would win a primary. I think a lot of his core support in Pontiac was due to who he isn't instead of who he is. Melton? Without Auburn Hills, that would be a tougher go for him. Brenda Lawrence would be a very strong challenger however, with Southfield's added significance with Detroit's population drops.

The 13th is more favorable to Conyers with him not having to deal with the Pointes or Oakland County, but it might not be a free pass. He has several white-majority working class suburbs which are democrats and will vote in that party's primary. He wouldn't have to face Brenda Lawrence here, but a guy like Glenn Anderson could give him a tough race. Romulus, Wayne, Westland, Garden City, Inkster, Dearborn Heights, and Redford are all new to the district. Anderson represented Westland, Garden City, and Redford. Will Detroit former state senator Buzz Thomas (depending on where he lives) go for it? He planned on it before and stepped back. I think Conyers is favored to win a primary, but I don't think it will be a cakewalk.

Keep an eye on the primaries here if there are any. While the incumbents are favored, certain candidates running could make this a very interesting race.

Congressional District 13 - Redistricted (MI-13)

Incumbent - Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit) - Running in MI-14
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2
The old 13th district information is here.

Challengers - Harry Sawicki (R-Dearborn Heights), John Conyers (D-Detroit, incumbent in MI-13),

Update 8-30-2012 - John Conyers won easily against the field. I'm surprised at how easy it was, although I'm not surprised he won.

Update 5-1-2012 - There's been several write-ups in the MI-13/MI-14 districts since I first posted this. A lot of people are running campaigns in both of these districts but have not turned  in their signatures. Conyers and Johnson are officially in. Shanelle Jackson and Glenn Anderson are also likely running here. Clarke, Brenda Lawrence, and Gary Peters are likely running in MI-14

Update 5-16-2012 - It's a major primary. Advantage to Mr. Monica Conyers, or is it? The big questions here are who is organized, how territorial are the candidates in their area (Anderson in Westland, Jackson in NW, Johnson in Highland Park), and how the vote splits. My money is on Conyers, but I can't discount Anderson, Jackson, or Johnson either assuming those campaigns ARE organized, funded, and hitting doors.

This is one of two black majority voting rights act districts in Michigan. I'm not going to run the numbers because Detroit itself is 93-95% democrat. Detroit's population keeps dropping, but it's still about 1/2 of the district. My guess is that Clarke will win with about 80% of the vote each election.

The old 13th district was Detroit, the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods and much of downriver. The Pointes go to John Conyers. Most of Downriver goes to Dingell. Clarke picks up Highland Park, and has the only part of Downriver still in this district - Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge which are all heavily minority.

Clarke picks up from McCotter Redford, Dearborn Heights, Westland, Garden City, and Wayne. He picks up Inkster, Romulus, and another part of Dearborn Heights from Dingell. All of those areas are blue sinks, and are gaining in minority population.

This and the 14th district are safest for democrats in Michigan.