Monday, January 09, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 51 (HD-51)

State House - District 51
Current Rep -Joseph Graves (R-Linden)

Candidates:
GOP - Joseph Graves (R-Linden),
Dem - Steven Losey (D-Linden),

Update 5-26-2012 - Joseph Graves is the incumbent due to his win in the Feb 28th special election to replace the recalled Paul Scott. Graves had 10,290 to Losey's 8,173. Graves and Losey are running again as both are in the new district. A rematch is likely, but both need to get past their primaries first.

Update 8-30-2012 - Graves and Losey get their rematch

2010 Results - Old District (51st)
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275

This district is a big different than the old 51st. It expanded into Oakland County. The old district stayed in Genesee County and covered Argentine Twp, Atlas Twp, Fenton, Grand Blanc, Linden, and Mundy Twp.

The new district drops competitive Grand Blanc and democrat leaning Mundy Twp. It picks up the swing areas of Gaines Twp and Flushing Twp. It also picks up from Oakland County, Holly (swing), Rose (GOP), and Groveland Twps (GOP).

For the "last state house" numbers, I'm going to wait until the Feb 28th recall replacement election happens, because it will be the first numbers for Graves/Losey. The new district should lean republican, as even McCain won it. The old district was competitive, but the GOP with Roberston who took the district from the democrats in 2002. He was able to hang on to it three times. Paul Scott won it twice, but got recalled in a narrow vote when the MEA went to war. This is a new district however, and one that I think favors us.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Genesee County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Argentine Twp 1845 1791 3636 54 50.74% 49.26% 1.49%
Atlas Twp 2481 2129 4610 352 53.82% 46.18% 7.64%
Clayton Twp 2035 2385 4420 -350 46.04% 53.96% -7.92%
Fenton  2709 3129 5838 -420 46.40% 53.60% -7.19%
Fenton Twp 4847 4111 8958 736 54.11% 45.89% 8.22%
Flushing Twp 2327 2719 5046 -392 46.12% 53.88% -7.77%
Gaines Twp 1790 2078 3868 -288 46.28% 53.72% -7.45%
Linden  1143 1082 2225 61 51.37% 48.63% 2.74%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Groveland Twp 1769 1275 3044 494 58.11% 41.89% 16.23%
Holly Twp 2678 2969 5647 -291 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Rose Twp 1936 1573 3509 363 55.17% 44.83% 10.34%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 25560 25241 50801 319 50.31% 49.69% 0.63%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Genesee County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Argentine Twp 1981 1483 3464 498 57.19% 42.81% 14.38%
Atlas Twp 2606 1704 4310 902 60.46% 39.54% 20.93%
Clayton Twp 2162 2134 4296 28 50.33% 49.67% 0.65%
Fenton  3026 2554 5580 472 54.23% 45.77% 8.46%
Fenton Twp 5319 3570 8889 1749 59.84% 40.16% 19.68%
Flushing Twp 3298 2849 6147 449 53.65% 46.35% 7.30%
Gaines Twp 1905 1930 3835 -25 49.67% 50.33% -0.65%
Linden  1250 853 2103 397 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Groveland Twp 1988 1204 3192 784 62.28% 37.72% 24.56%
Holly Twp 2813 2442 5255 371 53.53% 46.47% 7.06%
Rose Twp 2139 1337 3476 802 61.54% 38.46% 23.07%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 28487 22060 50547 6427 56.36% 43.64% 12.71%

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

I don't like how the map does Genesee County. I wrote about my alternative map here: http://wmugop.blogspot.com/2011/07/michigan-redistricting-alternative.html.