In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

Why should a conservative re-elect Snyder?

Why should a conservative re-elect Snyder?

            Before I became County Chair, I was an outspoken critic of Gov. Snyder over some issues. I supported Attorney General Mike Cox in the 2010 gubernatorial primary. My views have not changed since then. There are many issues where I disagree with Governor Snyder. However, he'd be much better than Mark Schauer. On every issue I disagree with Snyder, Schauer not only agrees with Snyder, but goes much further than he does.

            Rick Snyder signed Right to Work. It got to his desk and he signed it. Mark Schauer would repeal it. Rick Snyder signed a partial birth abortion ban. Mark Schauer voted against a partial birth abortion ban. Rick Snyder was leading the way to enact balanced budgets in Michigan. Mark Schauer added to the debt, both in Michigan, and in his two years in congress.

            We also need to help our good conservative state legislators in Lansing. Who is more likely to sign Senator Joe Hune's bills if they pass? Who would be more likely to sign a bill sponsored by Lana Theis or Dr. Hank Vaupel? I think we all know the answer to that. 

            One issue that isn't discussed is judges. As an attorney, I understand that this is an issue that can impact us for 30 or more years. In Michigan, judges are elected for their terms, but governors appoint judges to fill vacancies if judges resign or die during their term. Justices Robert Young and Stephen Markman, two of the best in the state, were originally appointed by Governor John Engler. You can bet that Governor Jennifer Granholm would not have appointed them, nor will Mark Schauer. Rick Snyder appointed Brian Zahra and David Viviano, both good justice who have judicial experience.

            With too much to lose with these issues, I highly encourage a vote for Governor Rick Snyder, along with Justices Brian Zahra and David Viviano, and Judge James Robert Redford (Redford's opponent Richard Bernstein has NO judicial experience). For district judge, Dennis Brewer has my vote. He would replace a Granholm appointee who has issues with temperament. Brewer is an even tempered attorney who would be an excellent judge in this county.

            This gubernatorial election is important. I do not agree with Governor Snyder on all issues, but I agree with Mark Schauer on zero issues. We can not let Mark Schauer win. Snyder agrees with us at least on some issues. We need him to win another four year term, and make sure the most conservative electable candidate wins in 2018.

Primaries, Tea parties, establishments, Obamacare, and the Icaucus poll

There's a lot of talk right now about primaries and potential primaries.

My view is that primaries (which should be closed) aren't a bad thing if done right. It demonstrates that candidate x is the choice of Republicans (or Democrats in their primary) to be their nominee in the November election. It gives people a choice. The establishment is not entitled to the nomination solely due to incumbency. The tea party does not necessary deserve the seat either because they are "the true conservative". That's why we have primaries. Candidates - on all sides - need to earn nomination. 

Former State Rep Leon Drolet is expecting to challenge incumbent State Senator Torry Rocca in the 10th District (SD-10)

Anti-tax activist Leon Drolet sounds ready to take on Republican Sen. Tory Rocca of Sterling Heights, who is part of the Lansing Gang of Eight. Rocca’s surprising pro-Medicaid vote came on the heels of a vote against right-to-work legislation last December.
As only Drolet can do, the former state representative tried to fireproof himself while throwing gasoline on the blaze.
He told the Lansing-based Gongwer news service that, if he challenges Rocca, Macomb County Republicans will have a choice to make: “Would they rather be represented by a principled gay conservative or by a big government RINO who, frankly, screws them more than anybody else. If the focus of that primary becomes who’s screwing who, one thing has become exceptionally clear: Tory Rocca screws Republican primary voters.”

That's a tough labor friendly district, although with Roseville out, a much easier district to hold. 

In other primary news that surprised few people, David Trott is challenging incumbent Kerry Bentivolio. Bentivolio From Crain's

David Trott, chairman and CEO of Farmington Hills-based Trott & Trott PC who also owns Attorneys Title Agency LLC and co-owns Dietz Trott Sports & Entertainment, announced today he is a candidate to replace U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in Michigan's 11th congressional district.
Trott, a Republican, will likely appear on the Aug. 5, 2014, Republican primary ballot as a candidate against Bentivolio, who lost a partial term election last November to Democrat David Curson, but won a separate election to a full two-year term in the seat for southwestern Oakland County and northwestern Wayne County.
Bentivolio is expected to seek a second term in November 2014, but Bentivolio communications director Matt Chisholm could not be immediately reached for comment.
Campaign co-chairs for Trott will be former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop, Wayne County Commissioner Laura Cox, Former Congressional candidate Rocky Raczkowski, and Ronna Romney McDaniel.

Bentivolio won due to McCotter not making the ballot. However, Bentivolio is stronger now as an incumbent. I don't think this is going to be a shoo-in for Trott or anybody. I know Trott is well known among Oakland County's party leadership, but he's not that well known with voters, at least yet. I also expect a heavy tea party vs establishment battle there.

As far as gubernatorial primaries go, here's the latest from Icaucus Michigan

Survey Reveals Snyder and Calley Vulnerable to August 2014 Ouster

CEDAR SPRINGS – A statewide survey conducted in Michigan last week shows Governor Rick Snyder to be “clearly vulnerable” and Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley to be “likely vulnerable” to being removed from the 2014 Michigan Republican ticket instead of re-nomination for a second term, according to Kevin Heine, Chief Strategist for iCaucus Michigan.  This survey was paid for by iCaucus (a private, non-profit corporation headquartered in Cheyenne, Wyoming), and is not associated with any sitting elected official, any known or potential candidate for the 2014 election cycle, or any political party.

The survey sample consisted of 744 republican convention delegates and alternates, and was drawn from the master delegation lists for the last three Michigan Republican Party state conventions (May 2012, September 2012, and February 2013).  This is the same delegation pool that elected Dave Agema as National Committeeman by a 7-to-3 margin, but also reelected Bobby Schostak as State Chairman (though by the much smaller margin of 3.86%).  The survey was conducted during the timeframe of August 26^th thru 30^th, used email-link polling, and has a margin of error of ±4.08% at the 95% confidence level.  (The survey sample includes 29 respondents from a test run conducted during the previous week.)

I saw the Icaucus poll about whether the Governor Rick Snyder should have a primary challenger or should be replaced in the primary. Two things that should be taken from any poll. Unnamed always wins. "Generic challenger" is always the non-existent person you think should be the nominee from that party. I never endorse "generic" for that reason and always take the generic candidate with a grain of salt. One sports analyst I read always says the "unknown is undefeated" and that is true for politics as well. The grass is always greener on the other side until it isn't when the "generic" is replaced by a human. All candidates have their flaws.

What I liked from the Icaucus poll is that it actually had some names out there. The pool of voters for this survey were those who attended recent republican state conventions. It's a part of the base. Keep in mind is that this is probably Snyder's low water mark among Republicans over the Medicaid Expansion vote. I expect his numbers to improve some next year.

The results there showed

Snyder Approval - 55.78% - Disapproval - 34.41% - Neither 9.81%

Does Snyder deserve a primary challenger? (Generic question)

Yes - 48.39%, No 38.71% - Unsure - 12.90%

Does Calley deserve a primary challenger? (Generic question)

Yes - 39.65%, No 35.08% - Unsure - 25.27%

As shown here, the generic always wins. The unknown is undefeated. However, the numbers change with real people. 

Snyder vs Agema:
Agema 42.34%, Snyder 32.39% - Unsure - 25.27%

Agema is well known among state convention attendees due to his successful challenge of Saul Anuzis for RNC Committeeman.

Snyder vs Bishop:
Snyder 36.83%, Bishop 24.19% - Unsure 38.98%

Somewhat surprising. I figured Bishop would have stronger numbers.

Snyder vs Butler:
Snyder 38.98%, Butler 11.29% - Unsure 49.73%

Butler ran for Senate in 2006. Among tea party activists, he's probably not well known as most got involved around 2009 or 2010.

Snyder vs Betsy DeVos:
Snyder 40.59%, DeVos 18.41% - Unsure 40.99%

Tea party probably views DeVos as establishment.

Snyder vs Glenn
Snyder 39.11%, Glenn 30.78% - Unsure 30.11%

Glenn is a good organizer, but he's also ticked off a lot of people over MI4CS and the senate campaign.

Snyder vs Hoekstra
Snyder 47.04%, Hoekstra 21.77% - Unsure 31.18%

Not surprised after 2012.

Snyder vs Schuette
Schuette 39.44%, Snyder 31.85% - Unsure 29.70%

Not surprised here, although I figured Schuette would poll best instead of Agema.

What this shows is that there's a lot of grumbling, but on the same note, the base (meaning both establishment, tea party, and regular old conservatives) isn't going to push for just anybody to be a challenger. Despite the current environment and current noise, a good 40% or so are going to stay with Snyder period as things stand now unless Agema or Schuette run. Both of them have won conventions there in the past. I can't see Schuette challenging Snyder at all. Agema is popular from his run for RNC Committeeman. Third closest here was Gary Glenn who is a good organizer whose campaign people (MI4CS, etc) have more influence than I'd like at these conventions. I'm pretty sure Glenn's running for state rep instead in Midland. Snyder's best showing was against Hoekstra, and I bet 95% of that was due to the 2012 campaign. That was reassuring because it shows that campaign ability matters to convention attendees.

If asked whether I am open to voting for a primary challenger to Snyder (or anyone else), my answer is as follows. "Depends on the candidate." My criteria is as follows.

1. Candidate must be electable in the general election. I'm well aware of Mark Schauer's record over the last 15 years. I'll say it very eloquently. Schauer's record absolutely sucks. He does what leadership tells him to do. Most democrats do what they are told, and Schauer does that even more than most.

Electable does not necessarily mean "moderate" (often confused with demeanor)  as ideology is only one aspect - and I think a relatively small one - in general electability. I've seen far right and far left candidates both very electable - and very unelectable. The same goes for moderates, some of whom are awful candidates. Nothing personal against moderate-conservative Pete Hoekstra whom I personally like, but he was as electable as Sharron Angle (lost due to mouth) who has every bad stereotype one has about tea party. I determine electability through demeanor, work ethic, ability to raise money, ability to avoid foot in mouth disease, and elective history. Some of the names in that list are electable and some are not.

2. The candidate must have a plan and be able to adjust. "I'm the true conservative" won't get my vote in and of itself. Mouths are cheap, and I'm tired of them.

3. Must have a strong work ethic. If you are going to primary Snyder, you better have an insane campaign work ethic - because you'll have to finish the job against Mark Schauer. You'll need a Joe Hune 2002 or 2010 level of work ethic. If you're not willing to do that, don't bother as you're wasting everyone's time, not to mention unelectable.

Many are irked about Medicaid expansion and Obamacare as the reason for primaries. People are looking for someone to stand up to Obamacare. There is little that can be done on the state level (nullification is a pipe dream - whether it should be or not, don't count on it) to fight it. That doesn't mean Medicaid Expansion should have passed, but not passing it wasn't going to mean Obamacare wasn't going to have its tentacles affect Michigan as well, jackboot style. 

The best way to get rid of Obamacare is to slay the actual dragon. Obamacare, it's individual mandate, costs, medical device taxes, IRS power expansion, and prison sentences,  all passed due to 59 dem senators, a massive house majority, and Obama. Despite what some say, one branch of the house can not defund Obamacare on its own without a government shutdown. The US House has voted twice to repeal Obamacare. That's what it could do. It hasn't even been taken up for a vote in the Senate. Harry Reid is to blame for that. Michigan needs to do its part by denying Gary Peters a promotion. After that, then give the Peter Principle in Chief an offer he can't refuse.

Ideals are important. Getting them executed and having the ability to do it is more important. These are marathons, not sprints. Four years isn't a long time when it comes to trying to repeal bad laws. It took 8 years to get shall-issue CPL passed in Michigan. The best way to stop Obamacare is to elect a good senator instead of yesman Gary Peters. That's the next head of the dragon that needs to be slain - the senate. In 2016, getting the presidency back is key. Then actually repeal the damn thing.

Retakeourgov's Wes Nakagiri challenging Brian Calley

I caught this in an email this morning. Retakeourgov is based in my county, and I've known Wes since 2009 or 2010.

Hartland, MI - Wes Nakagiri, a TEA Party leader from Hartland, Michigan, announced today that he will be seeking the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor in 2014.  The founder of RetakeOurGov, Nakagiri has submitted his Statement of Organization to the Bureau of Elections, the first step in forming his campaign committee.
“I am running to bring a conservative voice to the current Lansing administration.  Having a grassroots conservative on the 2014 ticket will energize the base of the GOP to come out and work hard on its behalf.  This energy and enthusiasm will pay dividends up and down the ballot,” said Nakagiri.
It is widely known that a majority in the Republican Party are at odds with major policy initiatives being pushed by the current administration.  “TEA Party Republicans, conservative Republicans, traditional Republicans, and libertarian-leaning Republicans are strongly opposed to the proposed expansion of Medicaid and proposed increase in the gasoline tax,” Nakagiri noted.  “The sentiment among many segments of the GOP is having a conservative, freedom-minded individual in Lansing would be beneficial from both a policy and a political point of view,” continued Nakagiri. 
Nakagiri went on to say, “The expansion of Medicaid is a particular sore spot with many Republicans.  There is no doubt that the expansion of Medicaid is a key component of Obamacare.  Indeed, this expansion is directly at odds with the Republican Party platform.  Many in the party are disillusioned that our executive leadership is going against a key plank in our platform.”
Building on this point Nakagiri added, “Violating the platform is analogous to breaking a contract with the Republican voter.  Our word should be our bond.  When I’m elected as Lieutenant Governor I will not sit passively by when Republican Party leadership promotes legislation that does not coincide with the party’s stated vision.  I will be an outspoken advocate for following the United States Constitution, the Michigan Constitution, and the Republican Platform.”
Nakagiri will be in Lansing this week to urge Senators to vote against the expansion of Medicaid.  A close vote is expected, perhaps even a 19-19 tie.  In the case of a tie the Lieutenant Governor would cast the tie-breaking vote.  To this Nakagiri said, “I can guarantee that if I were the Lieutenant Governor I would be voting against expansion.  It is mind-boggling to many that we as a society would even think about piling more debt on the backs of future generations.  We really need to focus on expanding freedom, not government.”

More information about Wes Nakagiri is available at his campaign website, www.WesYes.com.

  

This is a little bit less conventional than challenging Snyder in a primary. Traditionally, Lt was just chosen by the governor, and was usually a state senator, as the Lt Gov is president of the senate and a tiebreaking vote. 

I'm reading three things from this.  

1. Wes is trying to put pressure on the legislature to stop Medicaid expansion. That's his big issue.  There are others as well, but that's generated a lot of heat. He would not have announced this now if the issue isn't a major one with grassroots. 

2. Wes wants the tie-breaking vote if applicable. Is that a big deal? It can be. The pension tax was a tiebreaking vote.

3. Wes wants the tea party to have more party influence. Wes will accomplish this just by running. 

Most people don't know how the Lt Governor is elected. It's usually a formality. The governor has his person, and the state delegates confirm it. Can Wes beat Calley? Yes. There's a way he can do it.  

How is this done?

It starts before May next year. People file and run for precinct delegate. What Wes will be doing is to recruit people to run for precinct delegate in the 2014 primary. Historically, precinct delegate positions have been unopposed in Livingston County. That will likely not be the case next year.  In Oakland, there's been contests in most areas for years. 

In August, we will be voting for precinct delegates in the primary along with many major partisan races like Governor, Senator, State Senate, State House, and County Commissioners. 

The precinct delegate candidates who win will be invited to a county convention soon afterward where delegates to state convention will vote on the nominees for Lt Governor (Calley, Wes, or someone else), Attorney General, Secretary of State, Supreme Court (although not other courts), and university trustees. 

After that is the general election, but there's another important election after the major elections - the party leadership elections. There will first be a county party leadership election for executive committee and the officers. There will then be another county convention that elects delegates to state convention where district and state party leadership is elected. 

Are the precinct delegate positions important? Absolutely, since that is where the voter pool comes from for these offices. I expect them to get a lot more attention in more areas than they are used to getting. Some of us might have to run an actual campaign now.  

 

Heads up this lame duck for gas tax increases and vehicle registration hikes

I'm hearing there is high potential of movement on this issue in the lame duck. Gas tax especially. This one pisses me off, and I'm not going to be very forgiving about it, at least on a professional and political basis. 

Once again. Don't blame me. I voted for Mike Cox. I voted for Prop 5. I'll vote for any reasonable or even semi-reasonable primary challenger to Snyder in a New York Minute especially if the democrat is beatable. One of the biggest reasons I voted for Proposal 5 is to put in the check the absolute cultist jihad among the Lansing elite in the dogmatic pursuit to raise the gas tax. This is shared by the tax raising Rick Snyder who is so brazen about this that he mentioned his support in September of this year soon before the election. It's not just Snyder either.

Of course there's no push to get rid of the sales tax on gasoline. This is another attempt by big government to be afraid of handling REAL budget issues and stop compartmentalizing different areas, and to instead ask - no demand - than we bail out the government's screw ups. This is all based on the false premis that the gas tax/registrations - and ONLY the gas tax/registrations can pay for roads. The transportation budget isn't just roads either, but WALLY trains.

From Bridge Magazine

Defeat of Proposal 5 means a simple legislative majority remains the threshold for statewide tax increases, perhaps opening the door to revision of the gas tax.

Did I call this or what.September - 41 cent gas tax isn't good enough for Rick Snyder

The bad news is that unless the 2/3 proposal passes, eventually this tax increase will pass, likely in a lame duck session. When I don't know, but there's too much of a sustained Lansing insider push from the government class. Click on the gas tax label on the blog and you'll see a ton of it, largely from termed out legislators, road lobbyists, and local governments. It's not just democrats either, but insider republicans (although definitely not a conservative) like Ken Sikkema who gave Granholm almost everything she wanted in her first term. Right now a lot of legislators are scared of this and rightly so, but this could kill us in a lame duck at some point, especially if the governor is also in lame duck.

This is a big reason why the 2/3rd amendment has to pass. It would have stopped the Blanchard, Granholm, and Snyder taxes that have been passed. It can also stop the gas tax increases whether it is pushed by Granholm, Snyder, or whoever is there in the future. The legislature does not always check and balance the governor who is mistakenly viewed as the leader of the party. Vote yes on Proposal 5.

Snyder wants this. Badly. Of course he can afford this unlike many of us. These high prices absolutely KILLED US (makes hammerfist and slams desk) in 2006 and most of 2008. We hit $4+ again this year. It's still over $3.50. At $4.10, 41 cents of every gallon goes to "With Republicans like him, who needs democrats" Rick Snyder. Right now it's about 37 cents.

As I explained about how bad this was with Snyder back in 2011.

There's three things wrong with the wholesale taxes.

1. Taxes go up even more when gas prices increase. That encourages higher gas prices to be even higher. We're almost $3.50 a gallon. That's damaging to any supposed recovery.

2. This does not address the 6% sales tax on gasoline - that does not go to roads. This will affect things more with a wholesale tax.

3. It continues the false assumption that the gas tax, and only the gas tax, goes to fix the roads.

4. While the non-sales tax portion of the gas tax goes to transportation, that does not necessarily equal roads.

I've covered this issue more times than Matt Millen has lost games as a GM. This is the worst tax in the country, outside of possibly the self-employment tax.

Transportation doesn't necessarily equal roads either. Snyder also wants $120+ a year in registration fee increases as well to add insult to injury. He likes the WALLY type trains as well. You got to be shitting me.

Well if they vote for this, well, six months during the term for those who aren't lame duck, the recall option  - yes recall option - is open. 1984 style. Paul Scott  was recalled, and replaced by a Republican, so there is precedent of Republicans replacing Republicans in recalls if this is necessary, let alone the democrats. For those who are two year lame ducks and have higher office aspirations, they can get recalled and their push for higher office can be gone for good. Too bad Mark Schauer didn't get recalled as he was running against Walberg in 2008. That two years he was in Congress gave us Cap and Destroy and Obamacare.

Here's the statute.

168.951 Officers subject to recall; time for filing recall petition; performance of duties until result of recall election certified.
Sec. 951.
Every elective officer in the state, except a judicial officer, is subject to recall by the voters of the electoral district in which the officer is elected as provided in this chapter. A petition shall not be filed against an officer until the officer has actually performed the duties of the office to which elected for a period of 6 months during the current term of that office. A petition shall not be filed against an officer during the last 6 months of the officer's term of office. An officer sought to be recalled shall continue to perform duties of the office until the result of the recall election is certified.


This is also important to remember:
168.952 Recall petitions; requirements; submission to board of county election commissioners; determination; notice; meeting; presentation of arguments; appeal; validity of petition.
Sec. 952.
(1) A petition for the recall of an officer shall meet all of the following requirements:
(a) Comply with section 544c(1) and (2).
(b) Be printed.
(c) State clearly each reason for the recall. Each reason for the recall shall be based upon the officer's conduct during his or her current term of office. The reason for the recall may be typewritten.
(d) Contain a certificate of the circulator. The certificate of the circulator may be printed on the reverse side of the petition.
(e) Be in a form prescribed by the secretary of state.
(2) Before being circulated, a petition for the recall of an officer shall be submitted to the board of county election commissioners of the county in which the officer whose recall is sought resides.
(3) The board of county election commissioners, not less than 10 days or more than 20 days after submission to it of a petition for the recall of an officer, shall meet and shall determine whether each reason for the recall stated in the petition is of sufficient clarity to enable the officer whose recall is sought and the electors to identify the course of conduct that is the basis for the recall. Failure of the board of county election commissioners to comply with this subsection shall constitute a determination that each reason for the recall stated in the petition is of sufficient clarity to enable the officer whose recall is being sought and the electors to identify the course of conduct that is the basis for the recall.
(4) The board of county election commissioners, not later than 24 hours after receipt of a petition for the recall of an officer, shall notify the officer whose recall is sought of each reason stated in the petition and of the date of the meeting of the board of county election commissioners to consider the clarity of each reason.
(5) The officer whose recall is sought and the sponsors of the petition may appear at the meeting and present arguments on the clarity of each reason.
(6) The determination by the board of county election commissioners may be appealed by the officer whose recall is sought or by the sponsors of the petition drive to the circuit court in the county. The appeal shall be filed not more than 10 days after the determination of the board of county election commissioners.
(7) A petition that is determined to be of sufficient clarity under subsection (1) or, if the determination under subsection (1) is appealed pursuant to subsection (6), a petition that is determined by the circuit court to be of sufficient clarity is valid for 180 days following the last determination of sufficient clarity under this section. A recall petition that is filed under section 959 or 960 after the 180-day period described in this subsection is not valid and shall not be accepted pursuant to section 961. This subsection does not prohibit a person from resubmitting a recall petition for a determination of sufficient clarity under this section.

History: 1954, Act 116, Eff. June 1, 1955 ;-- Am. 1976, Act 66, Imd. Eff. Apr. 2, 1976 ;-- Am. 1982, Act 456, Imd. Eff. Dec. 30, 1982 ;-- Am. 1993, Act 45, Imd. Eff. May 27, 1993 ;-- Am. 1993, Act 137, Eff. Jan. 1, 1994
Popular Name: Election Code


If they vote for this, we can't use this as the "official" reason to recall someone - at least in the state house because it is in a different term of office. However, someone can be recalled for ANY reason as long as it is clear. Find a vote from the first six months in that current term, and use that as the "official" reason. The unoffical reason can be the vote to increase the gas taxes. There is nothing that stops those supporting the recall of State Rep John Doe from broadcasting his vote for the gas tax increases. Recall campaigns are campaigns like any other campaign. It is a check and balance on this lame duck and right after the election gamesmanship that politicians like to play because they can get away with it.

The House and Senate has a choice. They can LEAD, or they can be followers and yesmen because the Lansing culture pushes that. They were followers and yesmen over the pension tax and didn't do the right thing. They need to do the right thing this time and dictate to Snyder that he's the executive director of Michigan and not the boss.

On the same note, we need to remember those with courage to tell Snyder not to even think about this tax and vote against it if it gets to that point. I remember the votes of  Jack Brandenburg, Dave Hildenbrand, Joe Hune, Rick Jones, David Robertson, Tory Rocca, Anthony Forlini, Ken Goike, Pat Somerville, Rick Outman, Pete Lund, and Andrea LaFontaine when it came to the pension tax. They did the right thing and voted against it. We need more of that here with the gas tax.

While Clint Eastwood's RNC speech wasn't the best, one line was perfect. Politicians are our employees. It is best that they remember this. If not now, in the 2012 primaries or recalls if necessary. .