Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Michigan Results for February 28th Primary posted here

8:07

Polls have closed here outside of a couple of Yooper counties in central time.

I'm going to try and keep up with the results and post them here. Keep in mind the following.

The winner may or may not finish first statewide. The winner is who wins most of the congressional districts. I expect this to be a nailbiter. My prediction is Romney by 1% statewide thanks to absentees with Santorum being the actual winner by congressional district. I hope I'm half right and Mr Scorched Earth gets upset completely. Santorum likely got walloped with absentees. That's tough to get past, although possible. Mike Cox survived that in 2002 against Gary Peters.

There's also two state rep districts. The 29th and 51st. I'll post those results as I see them. My gut tells me we'll split those districts with the 29th going dem and the 51st staying with us. That's just a gut feeling.

Locally, there's a fire millage as well.

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8:40

So far:

6%in
Santorum up 40-38% Statewide

Oakland County: (19 precincts in)
Romney - 3577
Santorum - 2623

Largely Waterford, Hazel Park, partial reports of W Bloomfield and Milford.

State Rep 29th
Bob Gray - 169
Tim Gremiel - 145

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9:00

I think Romney's going to take this.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/county/map/r/mi - CNN Map

He's doing much better up north than I expected and doing very well in South Macomb which I didn't expect (North is closer). Low turnout skews the results to absentees and seniors. That's Romney's ace in the hole.

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9:19 - Joe Graves is up.

STATE LEGISLATURE 51ST DISTRICT
VOTE FOR 1
(WITH 7 OF 52 PRECINCTS COUNTED 13.46%)
Joseph Graves . . . . . . . . . 1,459 51.21
Steven M. Losey . . . . . . . . 1,244 43.66
Cary Neuville-Justice . . . . . . 127 4.46
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 19 .67
Total . . . . . . . . . 2,849
Over Votes . . . . . . . . . 3
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . 53

Tim Griemel is up 2-1 over Bob Gray in the 29th.

Overall, Mitt up 41-38 with 31% in. I'll start guessing Congressional districts when more results are in.

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10PM
Statewide - Romney up 40-36%. They haven't called it, but Romney will win.

The Secretary of State also made a mistake using OLD districts for reporting by district. It's the NEW districts that matter.

District 1 - Close. Northern Lower is unexpectedly (to me) going for Romney with the UP going for Santorum.

District 2 - Santorum

District 3 - Close. Calhoun is split with Romney up less than 1%. Barry/Ionia heavily Santorum

District 4 - I think Santorum will take this one.

District 5 - Close.

District 6 - Santorum

District 7 - Close.

Districts 8-14 - Romney

If Santorum hangs on to 3, 5, and 7, it will be 16-14 Romney in delegates.

Also, Tim Gremiel is going to take the 29th district, and Joe Graves is up 800 votes in the 51st.

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11PM
Howell fire millage passes easily.

Joe Graves and Tim Gremiel are the winners for their state rep races. Graves was in particular good news on an otherwise bad news day for conservatives.

The media made it official and called it for Romney. I was looking closely at Macomb results. Absentees were the key. Election Day starts 30 days before the actual election day.

I'll get into the number crunching for congressional district tomorrow.

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