Sunday, March 27, 2005

Congressional District 1

Congressional District 1

2006 Contest:
Republican Candidates - Don Hooper (R-Iron River)
Democrat Candidates - Bart Stupak (D-Menominee)

Current Rep – Bart Stupak (D-Menominee)
Years in office – 13 (1993-present)

2004 Results
Bart Stupak – 65.56%
Don Hooper – 32.75%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 53.28%
Kerry – 45.58%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 53%, Bush 52%
Kerry – 46%, Gore 45%

Cook’s partisan index – Republicans +2

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Strongly Democrat

District covers:
Entire UP – Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron Keweenaw, Luce, Mackinac, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, Schoolcraft.

Lower Penninsula – Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Crawford, Emmet, Gladwin, Iosco, Montmorency, Ogemaw, Oscoda, Otsego, Presque Isle.

Bay County: - Auburn, Beaver, Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, , Monitor, Mount Forest, Pinconning, and Williams Townships.Cities of Pinconning and Midland (precinct 1)

This is a rematch of 2002 and 2004.

This district is the only district in Michigan that voted for one party’s president, and another party’s congressman. There are many independent voters in North Michigan, and most of them did not support John Kerry and the national democrats. That said, Bart Stupak has won this district seven times, and many of his wins were in a district more republican than the current district which was made more democrat after redistricting. Stupak lost most of the Traverse City portion of his district, and gained the more democrat leaning counties on the Lake Huron shore which was part of Jim Barcia’s district.

This district prefers socially conservative and fiscally populist democrats. Stupak sometimes fits the mold since he is pro-life and active in the community. Occasionally, he’ll go our way on guns, although he’s hit or miss on that issue. They do not like big city liberals here, as Gore and Kerry lost badly here. Regional politics is key in this district, as Yoopers prefer voting for their own.

In 2004, President Bush won every county except for Marquette, Gogebic, and Alger in the UP. Bush won Alger in 2000, but lost Iron County instead that year. The UP as a whole has a strongly democrat tradition, but is moving to the right due to social issues and declining influence of the unions. Marquette, Gogebic, Iron, and Alger are usually democrat strongholds, with Schoolcraft often joining them. Houghton, Dickinson, Luce, Chippewa, Menonimee, and Mackinac Counties are more apt to support Republicans. Delta county is starting to become more Republican as well.

In the Lower Penninsula, Bush lost Arenac and the portion of Bay County twice. He lost Alpena, Ogemaw, and Iosco counties narrowly in 2000, winning them in 2004. Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, and Emmet Counties are Republican strongholds.Cheboygan, Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda counties strongly lean Republican. Gladwin, Presque Isle, and Alcona Counties are very competitive for both parties. Bush received 49.19% of that portion of Bay County, which does not include Bay City.

Stupak’s lowest vote percentage was 54% in his first election. Since then, he’s never received less than 57% of the vote. Chuck Yob and Michelle McManus both held him under 60%, but since redistricting, he has won twice with more than 65% of the vote, winning every county in the district. The last time he lost any counties was in 2000 against Chuck Yob, who won Antrim County on the Lake Michigan coast.

Despite Bush winning here twice, Stupak will be extremely tough to beat, and this is strongly democrat as long as Stupak runs here. This would be one of the few swing districts in the state if it was open. The only reason I have this as strongly democrat is because of Stupak. I'd have it as safe democrat except that Bush won it by almost 8%.

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