Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Congressional District 6

Congressional District 6

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Fred Upton (St Joseph)
Democrat Candidates – Kim Clark (Three Oaks)

Current Rep – Fred Upton (R-St Joseph)
Years in office – 15 (1991-present)

2004 Results
Fred Upton – 65.34%
Scott Elliot – 32.43%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 52.84%
Kerry – 46.17%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 53%, Bush 52%
Kerry – 46%, Gore 45%

Cook’s partisan index – Republicans +2

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
All of these Counties: - Berrien, Cass, Kalamazoo, St Joseph, Van Buren

Allegan County: - Allegan, Casco, Cheshire, Clyde, Dorr (part), Ganges, Gunplain, Hopkins, Lee, Leighton, Martin, Otsego, Trowbridge, Valley, Watson, and Wayland Townships. Cities of Allegan, Otsego, Plainwell, South Haven, and Wayland.

Calhoun County: - Athens and LeRoy Townships

This is a marginal district with a growing democrat base, and growing republican base. It’s safe for Fred Upton who gets cross party support, but isn’t safe if it opens up. Kalamazoo County is treading democrat and is home to over 1/3 of the voters. Kerry won that county by 4315 votes. Van Buren County is only marginally Republican. St Joseph and Cass are much more republican, but are smaller, as is the portion of Allegan County in this district. While Calhoun County swings, Athens and LeRoy Townships are over 60% Republican. The part of Allegan County in this district went 58% for Bush. Van Buren, St Joe County, and the Allegan/Calhoun portions are combined still smaller than Kalamazoo County. That makes GOP leaning Berrien County the deciding portion of this district and it is a split county. Benton Harbor is a 95% democrat stronghold. Benton Township is also a democrat stronghold, with Niles and New Buffalo also leaning slightly democrat. St Joe, Coloma, and the surrounding townships are republican strongholds and outvote Benton Harbor/Township.

The big key to this district is Kalamazoo County which took a strong democrat swing in 2004 due to the city, Oshtemo (near WMU), and Kalamazoo Townships. If they (and Portage) become more democrat, there could be trouble here if Van Buren also flips, and Benton Harbor turns out reducing victory margins in Berrien County. Upton will not have problems here, but this could be a tougher than expected defense in a open seat.

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