Thursday, March 31, 2005

Congressional District 12

Congressional District 12

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Randel Shafer (St Clair Shores)
Democrat Candidates – Sander Levin (Royal Oak)

Current Rep – Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak)
Years in office – 23 (1983-present)

2004 Results
Sander Levin – 69.32%
Randell Shafer – 29.02%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 38.91%
Kerry – 60.14%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 39%, Bush 37%
Kerry – 61%, Gore 61%

Cook’s partisan index – Democrats +13

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:

Oakland County:
Royal Oak Township. Cities of Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Madison Heights, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, a small part of Royal Oak, and Southfield.

Macomb County:
Clinton and Lake Townships. Cities of Center Line, Eastpointe, Fraser, Mt Clemens, Roseville, St Clair Shores, Warren, and part of Sterling Heights.

This is a rematch from 2004.

This district was created to compact a large number of Suburban Democrats. Most of the Oakland County parts of the district are black (Southfield/Oak Park), Jewish(Oak Park), gay(Ferndale), liberal(Huntington Woods), union (Hazel Park) or combinations of all five. The Macomb County portions, especially Warren, are mostly Union Democrat. This changed Levin’s old “sleeper” democrat leaning district to a solid democrat seat. Bush only won Lake Township, the smallest municipality. He lost the rest of the district, mostly by a large margin.

Levin gained Southfield and Lathrup Village from Knollenberg. He gained Clinton Township, Eastpointe, Fraser, Lake Twp, Mt Clemens, Roseville, and St Clair Shores from David Bonior. He gave up the GOP part of Sterling Heights and Utica to Miller, Berkley, Clawson, Troy, and most of Royal Oak to Knollenberg.

Once Levin retires, this will be a major battle in the Democrat primary. Macomb prefers a more union style Bonior democrat, while Oakland prefers an Ann Arbor style Gilda Jacobs democrat. It will take a miracle for a Republican to win here.

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