Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Congressional District 5

Congressional District 5

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Eric Klammer (Saginaw)
Democrat Candidates – Dale Kildee (Flint)

Current Rep – Dale Kildee (D-Flint)
Years in office – 28 (1977-present)

2004 Results
Dale Kildee – 67.17%
Myrah Kirkwood – 31.28%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 40.61%
Kerry – 58.59%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 41%, Bush 37%
Kerry – 59%, Gore 61%

Cook’s partisan index – Democrats +12

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
All of these Counties: - Genesee, Tuscola.

Bay County: - Bangor, Frankenlust, Hampton, Merritt, Monitor, and Portsmouth townships. Cities of Bay City and Essexville.

Saginaw County: - Birch Run, Blumfield, Buena Vista, Frankenmuth, and Zilwaukee Townships. Cities of Frankenmuth, Saginaw, and Zilwaukee.

This was a gerrymandered district for Dale Kildee intended to take in Genesee County and the democrat strongholds of Saginaw and Bay City. Tuscola County was added as well, much to the chagrin of the republicans there. There are five safe democrat seats in Michigan, which are all around 58% or more democrat. This is the 5th most democrat seat in the district. (Behind Dingell’s, Levin’s, Kilpatrick’s, and Conyers’s in that order)

There are republican areas in the district, mostly near Frankenmuth, and Tuscola County, but this district is 60% democrat, and won’t go Republican barring a disaster for the democrats.


Kevins said...

How do you "gerrymandered district for Dale Kildee" when the republicians set boundaries?

Republican Michigander said...

Democrats were packed into his district. It went from about a 52% Democrat and soon to be swing district by demographics - to a 60% Democrat district that combined Genesee County, Saginaw, and Bay City.

They gerrymandered his district to help Joe Knollenberg and Mike Rogers - and Kildee for that matter in removing republican parts of North Oakland. It came at the expense of Jim Barcia and Mike Green. Barcia was then a Bay City/Saginaw Congressman who was thrown into Kildee's District.

Most of the district was Kildee's so Barcia ran for state senate against Mike Green in a 50/50 district. Barcia's a well known moderate with a lot of crossvotes because of 2a and life issues, and the district went from leaning to Green to safe for Barcia.