Monday, March 28, 2005

Congressional District 4

Congressional District 4

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Dave Camp (Midland)
Democrat Candidates - Mike Huckleberry (Greenville)

Current Rep – Dave Camp (R-Midland)
Years in office – 15 (1991-present)

2004 Results
Vern Ehlers – 64.36%
Mike Huckleberry – 34.77%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 54.83%
Kerry – 44.13%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 55%, Bush 54%
Kerry – 44%, Gore 44%

Cook’s partisan index – Republicans +4

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican.

District covers:
All of these Counties: - Clare, Grand Traverse, Gratiot, Isabella, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Mecosta, Midland, Missaukee, Montcalm, Osceola, Roscommon.

Saginaw County: - Albee, Brady, Brant, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Chapin, Chesaning, Fremont, James, Jonesfield, Kochville, Lakefield, Maple Grove, Marion, Richland, Saginaw, Spaulding, St Charles, Swan Creek, Taymouth, Thomas, and Tittabawasee townships.

Shiawassee County – Caledonia, Fairfield, Hazleton, Middlebury, New Haven, Owosso, Rush, Vernon, and Venice Townships. Cities of Corunna and Owosso.

This is a large district that covers much of Mid-Michigan, part of West Michigan, and part of North Michigan. This is also a rematch from 2004.

This district strongly leans GOP and is safe for Camp. There are some GOP strongholds, swing areas, and marginally democrat areas in this district. Midland (Camp’s home base) and Grand Traverse County anchor the area for the GOP. Missaukee is the 2nd most GOP county in the state by percentage. Gratiot, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Mecosta, Montcalm and Osceola are strong Republican leans. Clare, Roscommon, and Isabella are swing counties.

Bush won the Shiawassee portion of the district with 50.83% Owosso leans democrat, and Northern Shiawassee County is more democrat. He won the Saginaw portion with 52.12% Saginaw Twp leans Republican, as do most of the rural areas there. Bridgeport however is in this district and is a democrat stronghold.

This district is the 3rd or 4th safest district (along with the 10th) in the state for republicans. It could be a race if a strong pro-2a democrat runs, but it is safe as long as Camp is running.

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