Thursday, March 31, 2005

Congressional District 10

Congressional District 10

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Candice Miller (Harrison Twp))
Democrat Candidates – Robert Denison (Shelby Twp)

Current Rep – Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township)
Years in office – 3 (2003-present)

2004 Results
Candice Miller – 68.61%
Rob Casey – 29.54%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 56.31%
Kerry – 42.82%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 57%, Bush 53%
Kerry – 43%, Gore 45%

Cook’s partisan index – Republicans +4

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican.

District covers:
All of the Following Counties:
Huron, Lapeer, St Clair, Sanilac

Macomb County:
Armada, Bruce, Chesterfield, Harrison, Lenox, Macomb, Ray, Richmond, Shelby, and Washington Townships. Cities of Memphis, New Baltimore, Richmond, Utica, and part of Sterling Heights.

This district was designed to take out David Bonior. The original 10th was a swing district that was slightly republican leaning. Bonior’s stances played well in a populist district and that picked up enough swing votes to win, often narrowly. Redistricting took away his top powerbases – Mt Clemens, Roseville, Clinton Twp, and St Clair Shores, and gave them away to Sander Levin. It added the strongly conservative and usually republican thumb region instead. In the part of Macomb County in the 10th district, only small Lenox Twp voted for Gore, and no municipalities voted for Kerry. Over in the thumb, Lapeer County, once competitive, is on its way to being another Livingston County with its exurban growth. St Clair County is still competitive thanks to Port Huron, although it is also moving to the right. Sanilac and Huron Counties are solid GOP base counties and it takes a miracle for a democrat to win there. This is a safe district, especially for Candice Miller.

UPDATE - Democrats have a four way primary here.

UPDATE - 8/10/06 - Robert Dennison won the Democrat primary.
Dennison - 8362
Casey - 7613
Kuligowski - 5690
America - 2911

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