Sunday, May 27, 2012

Don't compound a tactical error

I'm writing this based on the assumption that McCotter won't be on the August primary ballot. If there are enough signatures, then this is a moot point. As it looks based on speculation, the only name on the ballot for the republicans in the 11th District (MI-11) is Kerry Bentivolio

Assuming McCotter is gone, there's been a lot of push for write-ins. I think it's a bad move for a party to make here. By party, I am referring to NRCC, RNC, MIGOP, 11th District Committee, Oakland County Republican Party, and the Oakland County Republican Clubs. If McCotter campaign wants to go for a write-in fine. If Trott on his own wants to go for it, fine. If Kowall wants to go for it on his own, fine. That's their right as candidates. If individuals want to help them, fine.

If party wants to jump in and use party resources, then I have a problem. I do not see much good from a Republican Party operation jumping into a primary chasing a Hail Mary Pass that is likely unable to succeed. Even if it does succeed, it will create more bad blood between establishment and tea party that is not needed. If you want already sore tea parties to hold their nose and vote for their least favorite candidate running, don't piss them off even further. Stay out, and let the best candidate win.

I'm going to argue this from a nuts and bolts pragmatic perspective.

From a logistics standpoint, we had a somewhat similar situation in the 8th District on the democrat side in 2010. Kande Whatshisnamethequitter was running for the democrats to take on Mike Rogers. Sometime before the primary and after the filing deadline, he quit. Lance Enderle ran as a write in against the quitter.  Lance lost to the quitter in the primary. He did get 1703 votes, which isn't bad for a write-in. He eventually got on the ballot because Kande Whatshisname went back to the Philly suburbs. However, the quitter still got 23,228 votes. Granted Lance Enderle had little time for a campaign, but could even Dianne Byrum, Virg Bernero, David Hollister, or Gretchen Whitmer get 23,229 write-in votes? Maybe, but I'd be surprised. Personally, I thought it was impressive that Enderle got almost 10%.

If a quitter can get 23,228 votes in a primary by just having his name on the ballot, what does that say about Kerry Bentivolio's chances in the primary? Bentivolio is a stronger candidate than the quitter, and beat four other candidates in his 2010 race, although not Kowall. Bentivolio's not going to quit. He doesn't have a lot of money, but has some networks with Republican Liberty Caucus (I met him there back in 2010), some tea party groups, and Campaign for Liberty. He's a teacher and a military veteran of Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq. He'll get votes for that, along with the normal vote for whoever is on the ballot unopposed that many candidates get in primaries.

Can Trott get 25,000 write-in votes? I highly doubt it. Can McCotter or Kowall do it? Possible, but I still doubt it. In Michigan, you can't place stickers on the write in space for write ins. You have to spell out the name. McCotter isn't as tough of name to spell out as Rostenkowski, but you have to convince enough primary voters, after this blunder of epic proportions, to go into the booth, and spell out this name when there are other elections on the ballot. Even if one of them get 25,000 votes, it probably still won't be enough. That's just the minimum to have any chance.

In short, there's a very good chance if the parties get involved in this primary for write-ins, that the nominee from the 11th district will be.....Kerry Bentivolio - as it would likely be if the parties stayed out. Frankly, we can do a lot worse than that. I think he'll vote similar to Justin Amash. However, if Bentivolio wins, he'll need a lot of help raising money. That's the biggest reason why the party needs to stay out of the primary. The money spent in the primary needs to be spent in the general. Do you want Bentivolio in there, or Bill Roberts? I guarantee this much. Bentivolio won't back Pelosi as speaker or Conyers as judiciary chair.

1 comment:

Kerry Bentivolio said...

Thank you for your wonderful post. I have always been a good Republican and voted accordingly including for McC the last four times. I will also support the republican presidential nominee. I have been in contact with Justin Amash, Demint and a few others and trust they will act as my mentors. As a soldier I always did my best to lead by example for the younger soldiers advising them that character is doing the right thing when no one is watching. SelfLESS service, duty, honor, and respect for others is something I taught my children and it must be in your heart, not simple phrases. I take great pride in being a Republican and my hope someday is that we welcome all those who lost their way with open arms and continued enlightenment. Our country is on the brink and we must unite to save her. My good fortune will be shared and we must work together in a team effort. Two weeks ago my campaign was seen as having a hope and prayer of winning. There is now more hope and our prayers have been answered. I welcome the support of the Liberty folks, the Tea Party and my own Party, the GOP. Let there be a lesson in the saying, "my enemy's enemy is my best friend." Together we will defeat Obama and his socialist agenda. Nothing else matters. If the good people of the 11th decide to keep me on for awhile I will come home in six years. No more. I have no intention of becoming a career politician. Very simply, like you, I want my country back, I fought for her and I want her back. Together we can turn this ship around before she smashes against the rocky shore. I hope to see you at the Memorial Day parade where I will walk with my fellow veterans in rememberance of those who gave all so we can live free. May the light of freedom forever warm and shine brightly on our great country. God bless us all.