John Cherry drops out of the race

I'm shocked at this. I thought Cherry was much stronger than his numbers suggested. He's strongly organized, extremely friendly to labor, neutralizes the gun issue, and good one on one with people (which I know from experience at one of his gun events). If he hit the doors and met the people, he'd have a decent shot to win.  Granholm was an albatross, but Cherry could have worked to shake that later.

This opens things up. The two things I have heard is that Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero are jumping in. I think Dillon can be attacked the same way as Cherry. Dillon shepherded through the Granholm tax increase in 2007. Dillon was Speaker of the House during the whole deficit spending and tax increases. He also has left flank problems.

Virg Bernero's interesting. He's the Lansing mayor and always seems to be running for some office. Those VIRG signs are everywhere. He was a former state rep (Barb Byrum's seat) and state senator (Whitmer's seat) who left the state senate to be mayor. Lansing is in better shape than some other Michigan larger cities, but how many people who aren't political junkies or live in the area know about Lansing. There's the capitol. There's Cooley. There's LCC. There's the Lugnuts. There's a few other local favorite places, but it's still largely a GM city with some MSU influence on the east side. Nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't get its mayor the same name recognition that a mayor of Detroit or Oakland County Executive gets. One thing is for certain is that VIRG won't be getting support from pro-lifers and gun owners based on his state senate record. As a state senator, the biggest thing he is known for as a state senator is the "pop tax". There's a dealbreaker right there. I don't underestimate Bernero though. He'll work hard and is used to tough races in primaries.

I think two darkhorses to watch for with the dems are Mark Hackel and Bob Ficano. Those two I think would be the best chance for the dems to win in 2010. They aren't tied to Lansing or state government.

Cox has highest lead in general election poll (45% Cox, 30% Cherry)

Now this is real early, but the results are so far promising. EPIC/MRA, a democrat leaning polling firm, has all GOP candidates leading Cherry in the General election except Rick Snyder. The taps were posted by Wood TV in Grand Rapids. Some interesting results.

Direction (US).
35% - Right Direction
58% - Wrong Direction

Direction (Michigan)
17% - Right Direction
75% - Wrong Direction

Democrat Primary:
33% - John Cherry
5% - Alma Wheeler Smith
3% - George Perles (Yes, that Perles)
3% - Don Williamson
2% - John Freeman
54% - Undecided

Republican Primary:
29% - Pete Hoekstra
28% - Mike Cox
14% - Mike Bouchard
3% - Rick Snyder
2% - Tom George
24% Undecided.

Positive/Negative Obama
48% - Positive
51% - Negative

Positive/Negative Granholm
33% - Positive
66% - Negative

Matchups:

45% Cox
30% Cherry
25% Undecided

40% Hoekstra
33% Cherry
27% Undecided

39% Bouchard
31% Cherry
30% Undecided

34% Cherry
32% Snyder
34% Undecided

Once again. This is a democrat leaning polling firm. This isn't Strategic Vision. This isn't even Mitchell. From this firm, Cox leads by 15, and the rest have leads of at least 7 outside of Rick Snyder. The results are good if you are not a democrat or Rick Snyder. The problem with Cherry is that he's Michigan's version of Al Gore in a bad economy. After eight years of an administration, there's usually fatigue. Reagan was the exception, and the VP Bush won in 1988. Gore had a good economy, and he still couldn't win because he turned into a gun grabber when he went national. Dick Cheney didn't run in 2008, but probably would have done no different than McCain.

Posthumus could have won with a little more help as the 12% expected loss turned into 4%. Still wasn't a win. Engler broke the 8 year jinx with a third term however. Milliken's first choice lost in the primary after 12 years. Blanchard himself lost when he wanted a 3rd term. After 8 years, usually it's trouble.

And unless things change in the next year, it's big trouble for Granholm/Cherry. Cherry isn't following Clinton who had a good rep thanks to the 1994 Republicans and their work on the economy. Cherry's following the Matt Millen of governors.