Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Cox has highest lead in general election poll (45% Cox, 30% Cherry)

Now this is real early, but the results are so far promising. EPIC/MRA, a democrat leaning polling firm, has all GOP candidates leading Cherry in the General election except Rick Snyder. The taps were posted by Wood TV in Grand Rapids. Some interesting results.

Direction (US).
35% - Right Direction
58% - Wrong Direction

Direction (Michigan)
17% - Right Direction
75% - Wrong Direction

Democrat Primary:
33% - John Cherry
5% - Alma Wheeler Smith
3% - George Perles (Yes, that Perles)
3% - Don Williamson
2% - John Freeman
54% - Undecided

Republican Primary:
29% - Pete Hoekstra
28% - Mike Cox
14% - Mike Bouchard
3% - Rick Snyder
2% - Tom George
24% Undecided.

Positive/Negative Obama
48% - Positive
51% - Negative

Positive/Negative Granholm
33% - Positive
66% - Negative

Matchups:

45% Cox
30% Cherry
25% Undecided

40% Hoekstra
33% Cherry
27% Undecided

39% Bouchard
31% Cherry
30% Undecided

34% Cherry
32% Snyder
34% Undecided

Once again. This is a democrat leaning polling firm. This isn't Strategic Vision. This isn't even Mitchell. From this firm, Cox leads by 15, and the rest have leads of at least 7 outside of Rick Snyder. The results are good if you are not a democrat or Rick Snyder. The problem with Cherry is that he's Michigan's version of Al Gore in a bad economy. After eight years of an administration, there's usually fatigue. Reagan was the exception, and the VP Bush won in 1988. Gore had a good economy, and he still couldn't win because he turned into a gun grabber when he went national. Dick Cheney didn't run in 2008, but probably would have done no different than McCain.

Posthumus could have won with a little more help as the 12% expected loss turned into 4%. Still wasn't a win. Engler broke the 8 year jinx with a third term however. Milliken's first choice lost in the primary after 12 years. Blanchard himself lost when he wanted a 3rd term. After 8 years, usually it's trouble.

And unless things change in the next year, it's big trouble for Granholm/Cherry. Cherry isn't following Clinton who had a good rep thanks to the 1994 Republicans and their work on the economy. Cherry's following the Matt Millen of governors.

4 comments:

Dan Sheill said...

I don't see this as really a big deal since the difference between Cox/Cherry & Bouchard/Cherry is within the margin of error. It is early, and I would really like to find out what the negatives (and positives) are for each candidate among the voting public. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cox with high negatives. But admittedly, he will campaign harder to overcome those negatives where Bouchard, while he has more opportunity to define himself as a lesser known candidate, I'm questioning how hard he'll work to do so.

Communications guru said...

But that was before the revelation that Cox covered up the party at the Manoogian Mansion and killed a murder investigation. The guy is so dirty.

Adam said...

This poll shows Cox is incredibly poised to win for many reasons.

First, Cox has double the margin of victory over Cherry than the other GOP candidates. Well outside the margin of error. Many reasons but mostly his appeal to conservatives, democrats and independents.

Two, there are no new facts in the Manoogian issue except for a distorted news cast. AG's office led a thorough investigation and for seven years, the Michigan State Police, Wayne County Prosecutor's office, and the Detroit Free Press all came to the same conclusion. No party.

Three, Bouchard is a poor campaigner. Bouchard lost the state by 16 points in the same year Cox won it by 10. Cox's baggage is out there. Bouchard's and everyone else's will come. Bouchard views the Manoogian as his only chance to win and he has broke the 11th commandment by outwardly throwing mud at Cox. Bouchard has no plan for this state. His only plan is to throw mud at Cox. We expect more from Mike Bouchard.

Dan Sheill said...

Dude, if there's an 11th Commandment, then why did Reagan challenge an incumbent Republican President in 1976. And if there's an 11th Commandment, how do we handle/criticize RINOs?