No Rick Snyder for governor. Anybody in the primary but Rick Michigan.

It's no secret who I've voted for this primary. Mike Cox. I have my positives and negatives on all the candidates who are running, except there is one candidate who I hope loses this August. Rick Snyder. I'm not sure I can even support him in November. That is how much I am against Rick Snyder. I will have a real tough time being able to vote for him due to his economic liberal ties, social liberalism, failure to answer questions without being evasive, and most of all his outsourcing of jobs away from America. I won't vote for Dillon or Bernero, nor any BSTP candidate, but Rick hasn't earned a general election vote from me, even by lesser of two evil standards. I don't like Bernero or Dillon's politics, but I don't have the same personal dislike for them that I did with John Kerry or Barack Obama and their uber arrogance and elitism. Personally, I like Dillon from the few times I've met him. I never met Bernero, but I like how he's unafraid to take a stand. I respect that, even if I disagree. Dillon's at least somewhat pro-life and somewhat pro-2nd Amendment. That gives me more of a conscience to leave the race blank since I don't find much difference between Rick Michigan and Dillon on other issues. Bernero's to his left, but at least he's against outsourcing. Rick's got work to do to earn my general election vote.

Normally, Rick Michigan would not be a threat. However, with a five way primary, we could have a repeat of Joe Schwarz. If one of the conservative campaign ran away with this in the primary, this would not be a problem. The main reason RTL and the Chamber endorsed Mike Cox is likely because Cox won statewide twice, was a conservative, is not afraid to make tough decisions, and was leading in many of the polls. The other reason is to stop Rick Michigan. It's close, and here's the latest poll from WXYZ.

From WXYZ.com

An exclusive WXYZ – Detroit Free Press poll conducted by EPIC MRA for its statewide media partners has Snyder ahead by 2 points with 26 percent of the vote. Cox is in second place with 24 percent followed by Hoekstra with 23 percent. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard is in fourth place with 10 percent and State Senator Tom George of Kalamazoo is last with 1 percent. Fourteen percent are undecided.

I don't know accurate that poll is, but I've seen the large split before. 2004. Schwarz, DeWeese (now a democrat), Bisbee, Walberg, DeRossett, and Smith. That was my concern then, and that's my concern now with Rick Michigan taking the role of Joe Schwarz and Cox, Bouchard, Hoekstra, and George taking the spots of the rest of them.

Unfortunately, I don't think Rick Snyder has been effectively vetted. If he was, this wouldn't be close, even with the five way split. These are the reasons why I can not support Rick Michigan, who as far as I'm concerned is more of the mealy mouthed Jennifer Granholm, Ken Sikkema, Rick Johnson establishment type of Lansing problem running as an outsider.

Reasons:

Outsourcing. Rick Snyder is an outsourcer. This is Michigan. This is a manufacturing state. I know that we need to diversify our economy, but that does not mean we throw manufacturing under the bus. Our jobs belong here and not China. Gateway Computers, under Rick Snyder's leadership at Chairman, sent jobs to China and Mexico. That's an indisputable fact. I have picture proof of the outsourcing from a 1996 or 1997 Gateway, which was created during the time of Rick Snyder being the president. I go into more details of his outsourcing here which also has the pictures.

Even if you are a supporter of outsourcing, something I despise, you do not want to support Rick Snyder. Outsourcers do not do well in Michigan. It is the ultimate sin in politics. NAFTA, GATT, and Most favored nation trade status in China. Just the rumor of outsourcing was a major factor in the defeat of Dick DeVos. With Rick Michigan, it's not rumor, it's fact, and combine that with social conservatives not liking him very much. Rick Snyder will lose in November. I know what the poll says now, but who will vote for a jobs-killer? Virg Bernero will have a field day against this guy.

Life - That's a big issue to me. Rick Snyder is not pro-life. He dumped $20,000 supporting proposition 2 which promotes research of human embryoes, and outlaws discouraging of it, whichever that means.

Rick Michigan did not sign a no tax pledge.

Rick Michigan supports racial preferences and opposed the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative.

Questionable supporters - Joe Schwarz is well known for being pro-abortion, pro-embryo research, a gun grabber, and a RINO (supporting Mark Schauer, a yesman for Obama in Congress). Bill Milliken, another RINO, supported Obama, Granholm, and John Kerry, and is the most pro-abortion (tax funded), anti-hunting, and anti-2nd Amendment governor in Michigan history. I rarely use the term RINO anymore and safe it for those who support democrats. Schwarz and Milliken qualify. Milliken gave us the Single Business Tax and lead Michigan through its last exodus. No thanks.

Center for Michigan - That was created as opposition to the fiscal conservative Mackinac Center. Phil Power, former owner of the Livingston County Press/Hometown Newspapers runs the show. Power's a longtime democrat (although supported Joe Schwarz republicans too) and supported several tax increases in his editorials. Others at the Center for Michigan include fiscal liberals and ex-politicians like Bill Milliken, Doug Ross, Paul Hillegonds, (Detroit Renaissance/Business Leaders for Michigan - and its services tax), and Joe Schwarz.

Snyder was the first MEDC chair. Government picking winners and losers. Snyder's company received millions from MEDC.

What plan? Most of his plan presented was powerpoint style fluff. It's good for talking points, but does not have details. That contrasts to Mike Cox who has detailed plans on his website.

Lemons - Last but not least, my 1998 Gateway was an expensive piece of junk that went through three motherboards and two hard drives. I haven't gone back to them and do not plan to do so.

We need to stop Rick Snyder during this primary. Right now if the polls are to be believed, Mike Cox has the best chance to stop him. One thing I can say is that I know what Mike's going to do. He made his promises to me as AG regarding 2nd Amendment issues and kept them. He was not afraid to take a stand on MCRI or life issues. He was not afraid to take a stand on economic issues regarding taxes and spending. He's walked the walk besides talking the talk and has my support.

Pete Hoekstra supports a tax increase

We all know Andy Dillon supports higher taxes, but I'm a little disappointed in Hoekstra. He was until this my second choice for governor, and one where I wouldn't have to hold my nose in supporting outside of that one bailout vote that left me a bit sour. Well, now the bailout vote isn't the only thing that has me sour.

From the Detroit News

Beverly Hills -- Two early poll leaders in the Michigan governor's race -- Democrat Andy Dillon and Republican Pete Hoekstra -- found more common ground than differences Friday in a rare joint appearance at Detroit Country Day School.
They agreed term limits block political relationships in Lansing; it takes too long for businesses to get regulatory permits; right-to-work legislation would be too divisive; and the state needs to retool its tax system, including extending the sales tax to services.

From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100320/POLITICS02/3200331/1409/rss36#ixzz0ik1tJarD

Extending the sales tax to services is a tax increase. We pay more for goods. More money goes to government which has proven itself unable to live within its means. Just as Pete Hoekstra voted to bailout the banks which fubared, he now wants to bail out government by taxing others like a democrat.

There's more:

Hoekstra said Michigan has a "crazy" business climate that drives investors to other states. He called for elimination of the Michigan Business Tax, as well as the levies businesses pay on equipment, and lowering the state income tax and the property tax on second homes to spur more out-of-state people to buy here. He favors initially ratcheting down the sales tax and extending it to services, but then going to voters to ask for a sales tax boost to offset reductions in other taxes

It's easy to be against the MBT. It was a poorly thought out rush job of a replacement to the bad Single Business Tax. (Thanks to Joe Hune for opposing that piece of crap). I oppose that too, but we have a spending problem more than a revenue problem, and punishing the types of businesses that may be growing is a piss poor way to spur growth. I'm fairly certain though that Pete Hoekstra's plan is a duplicate of self proclaimed "Business Leaders for Michigan" and Granholm's plan of a measly 1/2 cent cut on sales tax only to tax services at that race. It's a tax increase. Period, and needs to be opposed 100%. It was wrong when Granholm wanted a two penny tax. It's worse with BLFM's 5.5 cent per dollar tax increase.

It was fiscal liberalism from Republicans that cost us both the state house and congress in 2006. We don't need more of the same. Pete Hoekstra unfortunately seems to have caught beltwayitis and is bringing it here. No thanks Pete, and I expected better from you.

Connecticut residing Goldman Sachs man Bob Bowman for Michigan Governor? Riiiiight.

 Who is Bob Bowman? He was treasurer for Jim Blanchard, the governor most famous for flying a MSP helicopter and raising income taxes 38% during the "last one to leave turn out the lights" years. (sound familiar?) That's his claim to fame.

Other than that, he works for Major League Baseball, and used to work for Goldman Sachs.Goldman Sachs. There's a vote for confidence, after what they have done the last four years with their buddies Obama, Schumer, and Bush.

He's begin recruited because he's rich. One problem for him. He lives in Connecticut. What would someone in Connecticut get about Michigan? A vacation home in Harbor Springs on Little Traverse Bay doesn't cut it. This guy doesn't understand real Michigan. His only Michigan ties are working for Blanchard and his big money vacation home in Harbor Springs he uses as his primary address, to probably avoid the high property taxes through the homestead exemption.

Bowman told Tim Skubick that Harbor Springs was his home.If it was, why does his campaign donations say Westport Connecticut? NOTHING on the online campaign finance database comes back as Harbor Springs.

Newsmeat under name Bob Bowman - $2000 to John Edwards.(Yes, that John Edwards)

A lot of Michigan donations here but Westport is his home listed.

You have to go back to 1988 to find a Michigan address under the donor files. East Lansing. 

Under the State of Michigan files, he uses a Westport address and donated. I won't post that verbatim, as his address is listed, and I don't post addresses here unless its an office address. $2000 to state committee. Bob Bowman is a carpetbagger from Westport, Connecticutt.

What's Westport Connecticut? It's a rich town on the Long Island Sound with a $1.2 million median price.Median income, almost $200,000. Democrats for working families, huh? Riiiiight. 

We don't need a Blanchard/Goldman Sachs crony from Connecticut buying the election in our great state. Hank Paulson and Bob Rubin were both Goldman Sachs guys in charge of the US treasury. Goldman Sachs lobbyist Mark Patterson is the chief of staff to Tim Geithner. Goldman Sachs is tight with the AIG bailout.

Say Yes to Michigan. Say no to Goldman Sachs cronies.  Say no to Blanchard jr. Say no to Michigan Governor's living in Connecticut. Say no to Bob Bowman.

Strike one - Blanchard's treasurer and 38% tax increase
Strike two - Carpetbagger from Connecticut
Strike three - Goldman Sachs

Yer out!

Denise Ilitch not running for governor

She was leading in one of the hypothetical polls based on that last name of hers, but decided not to run.

From WWJ 950

In a statement, Ilitch said she was "humbled" that so many people encouraged her to consider a run, but she said the one missing piece of a campaign was time.

"Through a methodical planning process, I saw that the message, resources, and many key endorsements would be there, but concluded that the compressed election year calendar would not allow me to run the kind of campaign for Governor I believe Michigan needs at this time," the statement said.  "And that stubborn fact is the one and only reason why I am not running for Governor today."

Campaigns take a lot of time, there's no doubt about that, although I don't see how the compressed schedule is different than any other year. 

Right now, the following are in or likely in.


GOP:
Mike Bouchard
Mike Cox
Tom George
Pete Hoekstra
Bruce Nichols
Tim Rujan
Rick Snyder


DEM:
Virg Bernero
Andy Dillon
Alma Smith


Bob Bowman has talked about it. The dems are waiting on him.

Bernero jumps in for governor, 3rd District (MI-03) opens?

Some major news in the works.

First, in a surprise to few, Lansing Mayor and former State Senator/State Rep Virg Bernero is running for governor. That makes things interesting. Virg is unknown outside of the Lansing area, but that won't be the case for long. He has a lot of detractors and supporters. One thing I will respect about Virg is that he doesn't mince words much and isn't afraid of speaking his mind. I think he's a real threat to win, much more than any of the names mentioned by the democrats so far. Andy Dillon, Denise Ilitch, Alma Smith, Bob "I don't live in Michigan" Bowman. Virg will work hard and if he loses, it won't be because of lazy campaigning. The GOP is going to have to bring it, no matter who the nominee is on either side, but especially if it's Virg, because he'll be bringing it. I guarantee people will know who he is by the time the primary ends.

Secondly, Justin Amash, a state rep from Kent County has announced he is running for the 3rd Congressional District. From Mlive

ustin Amash, 29, a first-term Republican state representative from Kentwood, announced on his Facebook page minutes ago that he will seek the 3rd District Congressional seat held by Vern Ehlers.

He set up a Web site that touts his record of supporting limited government.

Ehlers, 76, said he would announce Wednesday whether he will seek a ninth term. The district includes Barry, Ionia and all but a sliver of Kent counties.

If Ehlers does run again, he has plenty of cash on hand ($489,645) and raised a healthy $133,786 in the past quarter. The district remains solidly Republican, although the Grand Rapids population base leans Democratic.

Amash's Web site says fellow state representatives Dave Agema, R-Grandville, Bob Genetski, R-Saugatuck, and Tom McMillin, R-Rochester Hills, all have endorsed his Congressional bid.

Thirdly, speculation is that Vern Ehlers is retiring. That would fit Amash's announcement. Expect a primary. From Hotline

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI 03) will announce his retirement at a 10 a.m. presser tomorrow morning, according to a MI-based source.
A press release from Ehler's office says the presser "follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving" in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.
The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.
This Grand Rapids-based seat, under the right circumstances, is a potential pickup opportunity for Dems. In the '08 Dem wave, and with the GOP virtually conceding MI, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) eked out a 49%-49% win over Pres. Obama. But in much better times for the GOP in '04, George W. Bush won a comfortable 59-40% win over Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). The current enviro., both nationally and in MI, indicate that GOPers should be in a much safer place to hold this open seat. Ehlers, meanwhile, has never won with less than 61%.
Besides Amash, a GOP source names state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R) as a potential candidate. Hardiman, an African-American, represents a Grand Rapids-based seat in the Legislature, and was former mayor of Kentwood.

This seat should stay ours, but I am a little concerned about it. There's my recent update of the 3rd district.

Assuming this is now an open district, the keys are what kind of a primary we're going to have, and who the democrats are going to throw out for this. I think the good news for us and this district is that the 29th District state senate seat is opening up, since I expect the top democrat candidates to run for that instead because it's an easier district. I think Steve Pestka, Michael Sak, Roy Schmidt, George Heartwell, and Robert Dean could make things more difficult in keeping this seat if there is a divided primary. One on one, I'm not worried. A five on one Joe Schwarz special from 2004 worries me, especially if the democrat is pro-life. (if not, our odds of winning double)

There's a lot of people I can see running for this seat. Some I prefer to others. Justin Amash and Bill Hardiman are mentioned, but I'd watch for former Lt Governor Dick Posthumus, Jerry Zandstra, one of the Glenn Steils, Ken Sikkema, Mark Jansen, Brian Calley, Gary Newell, Kevin Green, or Tom Pearce to make a run, along with a possible countywide officer from Kent County. With Bouchard's early polling numbers, would Terri Lynn Land drop her Lt Governor bid for a Congressional run? (I'm probably going to hear about that comment later. Pure speculation, nothing more.) If the primary looks like it may be divisive, look for that "safe choice" to be recruited. I expect that to be either Land or Posthumus. If either of them run, I think they would be the favorites. If not, this will be wide open for the taking and I haven't followed all the ins and outs of Kent County politics to make a good guess.

This one will be quite interesting.

Rick Snyder Super Bowl Political Ad

I just caught the Rick Snyder ad. It's slick. I'll take a look at the plan on his site and see if he actually has details for a change beyond platitudes and company line talk "Reinvent" etc.

Apparently it did its job of getting noticed considering how many people are looking at my archives and the two Rick Snyder posts there. Obviously, I'm not a supporter of Mr. Snyder.

I do not support Rick Snyder, and these two posts explain why. I wasn't happy with Gateway's products, the outsourcing of jobs from America to other counties during his tenure at Gateway, nor his vague politician answers to questions. I was not impressed.

We need a reformer as governor, but I don't see it from Mr. Snyder. It's the same center-left style of Lansing in-crowd who have run Lansing the last eight years  - both parties. Those fee increases and spending increase from  2002-2006 were supported by Rick Johnson and Ken Sikkema and 1/3 of the Republicans as much as it was by Granholm and the democrats.The problem is the self appointed elitist mindset that is evident by the powers that be. Snyder may or may not have that mindset, but his circle of supporters with the Center for Michigan (which support tax increases) do.

March 2009 post on Snyder

August 09 - Outsourcing at Gateway

Right Michigan also has a lot of archives and posts on Rick Snyder as well.

Snyder so far has struck me as more of the same with a different gimmick.

John Cherry drops out of the race

I'm shocked at this. I thought Cherry was much stronger than his numbers suggested. He's strongly organized, extremely friendly to labor, neutralizes the gun issue, and good one on one with people (which I know from experience at one of his gun events). If he hit the doors and met the people, he'd have a decent shot to win.  Granholm was an albatross, but Cherry could have worked to shake that later.

This opens things up. The two things I have heard is that Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero are jumping in. I think Dillon can be attacked the same way as Cherry. Dillon shepherded through the Granholm tax increase in 2007. Dillon was Speaker of the House during the whole deficit spending and tax increases. He also has left flank problems.

Virg Bernero's interesting. He's the Lansing mayor and always seems to be running for some office. Those VIRG signs are everywhere. He was a former state rep (Barb Byrum's seat) and state senator (Whitmer's seat) who left the state senate to be mayor. Lansing is in better shape than some other Michigan larger cities, but how many people who aren't political junkies or live in the area know about Lansing. There's the capitol. There's Cooley. There's LCC. There's the Lugnuts. There's a few other local favorite places, but it's still largely a GM city with some MSU influence on the east side. Nothing wrong with that, but it doesn't get its mayor the same name recognition that a mayor of Detroit or Oakland County Executive gets. One thing is for certain is that VIRG won't be getting support from pro-lifers and gun owners based on his state senate record. As a state senator, the biggest thing he is known for as a state senator is the "pop tax". There's a dealbreaker right there. I don't underestimate Bernero though. He'll work hard and is used to tough races in primaries.

I think two darkhorses to watch for with the dems are Mark Hackel and Bob Ficano. Those two I think would be the best chance for the dems to win in 2010. They aren't tied to Lansing or state government.

Bruce Nichols - longshot running for governor

The Argus had an interesting piece today. Bruce Nichols enters the gubernatorial race.

The Brighton Township Republican recently announced his run for governor, and is in the process of gathering some 30,000
signatures — and raising lots of money — to become the Republican nominee to succeed term-limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

Nichols concedes he doesn't have the name recognition or
dollars of Republican contenders Attorney General Mike Cox, Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder, U.S. Rep.
Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, or Kalamazoo County state Sen. Tom George,

All those candidates — and Republicans statewide — have lost their conservative roots, Nichols said.

He said he's "a conservative first, Republican second," meaning he most values limited government, "free-market solutions" and "traditional family values."

"We've never had a true conservative (governor). I don't think we have any that are running right now," said Nichols, 52.

It's a tough road to go. If he really is a serious candidate, he'll get the 30,000 valid signatures (which I believe must be all over the state) needed to be on the ballot. It's possible, and there's a way he could possibly pull it off, but it is not easy. Name recognition is going to be his biggest obstacle. Most people don't know who he is.

Right now, polls show this a two way race between Mike Cox and Pete Hoekstra with Bouchard in 3rd, and the rest back in single digits (George, Snyder, Rujan). That can change at any time, and I suspect it to be a 4 way race between Cox, Hoekstra, Bouchard, and Snyder (Snyder has money, and it is a large primary so he is a shot).

In order for Nichols to win, he'd have to get on the ballot and then find a way to break into that top group by August. In order for that, someone has to falter, and others have to be unable to catch-on. In addition to that, Nichols will have to offer something the other candidates don't, and it will have to be more than simply "I'm the real conservative" and "I'm a businessman."

He'll need an ace plan, and a lot of free media. I wish him luck, and while I support Mike Cox, I hope he influences the race with his ideas and gets into the debates. Nichols can certainly impact that with hard work and smart campaigning. Can he win? We'll find out more next May.

Governor race updates, Mackinac Conference

Mike Bouchard named Terri Land as running mate. WDIV reporting. That's not a real surprise since Land decided last July she was not running and endorsed Bouchard almost immediately. Does it effect the race? Maybe to a small extent. This is from the David Bonior playbook back in 2002. Alma Wheeler Smith was running, dropped out, and ran with Bonior. Bonior finished 2nd to the then so called "rock star" candidate Matt Millen, I mean Jennifer Granholm. Bouchard's biggest weakness is his 2006 performance against Stabenow. He's a good guy and it wasn't all his fault, but numbers don't lie. I'd like to see Bouchard run against Gary Peters. I think he can win that race. I have doubts whether he would win the governor's race. My reponse to the Bouchard for Governor campaign? Bouchard for Congress!

On another note there was a dustup about the invitation (or not) of Tom George to a gubenatorial debate. From Crain's Detroit Business.

Republican gubernatorial hopeful Sen. Tom George, R-Kalamazoo, is back in the debate.

After hearing from the chair of the Michigan Republican Party and some other candidates, the Michigan Taxpayers Alliance has reconsidered its decision to cut George from a Republican gubernatorial candidate debate at the Sept. 26 Republican Leadership Conference on Mackinac Island.
(snip)
Earlier in the week, George said that the MTA rescinded their invitation for him to participate and cited the reason that WJR AM 760 is only able to air the debate for one hour and Drolet and the MTA’s board felt that they should limit who can participate in the debate.

On Wednesday, Drolet said the Republican Party is responsible for negotiating with radio stations for coverage and he would have welcomed more time that would have enabled George’s initial inclusion.

He said that when the alliance learned it only had an hour of air time, the board initially felt it needed to limit the debate to “the perceived top four candidates running statewide campaigns.”

My view. Let him in. Anyone on the ballot or with a committee on the GOP side should be in. I'm not voting for Tom George (I'm not against him like I am against Snyder), but he's as much a candidate as anyone else in the race. It's not like little known state senators have never won the governorship. Ask John Engler in 1990.

The Mackinac Conference is coming up. This is the big GOP event in Michigan every two years. Presidential wannabes usually show up, but the big thing right now are the state level races. Governor. Attorney General (undecided) and Secretary of State (also undecided). There's a lot of inside baseball going on right now. I'll be posting a report after the conference or during if I get access.

Mike Cox for governor

It's been almost ten years since we had a good governor. Pre-2000 John Engler. The last eight years of Granholm has been a disaster. For most of those eight years, she was able to get everything she wanted due to either mostly democrat control, or willing Republicans who fiscally acted too much like democrats (Rick Johnson and Ken Sikkema with their support for tax shifts, fee increases, and high spending). Yes, there is blame on all sides to a degree for the past eight years and economic disaster, but the common factors in the recent problems of this state are Granholm, Cherry, Mark Schauer, Gretchen Whitmer, and Andy Dillon.

A lot of people are running for governor this term.

On the democrat side we have as follows:

John Cherry. I actually met Cherry a couple of times at gun rights events. Personally, I like the guy, and he was generally pro-2a before it was cool, so I'll give him a little credit. However, I couldn't disagree with him more on economic policies right now. Granholm/Cherry's policies are bad news for this state which is moving towards 20% unemployment.

John Freeman - Former Oakland County State Rep from Madison Heights near Royal Oak. I don't know much about this guy.

George Perles. Thanks to the tussle between Perles and DiBaggio, we got probation, rough times in the early 90's right after a Big 10 title, and a lawsuit. Perles was a good coach, but not good with the double duty of AD and coach at the same time.

Alma Wheeler Smith - Current state rep, former State Senator and Lt Governor Candidate (running with Bonior). Planned Parenthood's best friend. Also a major supporter of anti-2nd Amendment measures, tax increases, and big spending, as you would expect from an Ann Arbor/Ypsi area democrat.

Don Williamson - You gotta be kidding. He's the worst choice out of anyone running. He did not do Flint any favors.

On the GOP side:

Mike Bouchard - Bouchard is a good guy who should be in the US Senate right now. That's the problem, he SHOULD be in the senate, but he was clobbered against Stabenow in 06 and could not win his home county. Not all of that is his fault as he had Jack and Squat for support from NRSC, but he should have at least gotten it within 10%. 58%-42%? Can he get that extra 8%? I don't know. I do think he should instead run against Gary Peters in the 9th district, which would be a better matchup. I'd back Bouchard for that seat. Bouchard for Congress, not governor.

Tom George - State Senator from Kalamazoo. He's a more moderate (not liberal or RINO, actual moderate) candidate who was a state rep and senator in Kalamazoo county. He's won in tough areas, but it not well known statewide.

Pete Hoekstra - Congressman representing the Lake Michigan shoreline. Hoekstra's from Ottawa County, and is one of the better congressman from this state. I do worry however about anyone from Washington winning statewide, and Hoekstra has one vote that has left a real nasty taste in my mouth. The bailout. The banks bailout. Hoekstra voted against the bailout the first time, but when push came to shove on that second vote, he flipped. That one hurts, and I think he will be beaten over the head for that bailout vote.

Tim Rujan. I never heard of him before his announcement. He's up from the thumb in Huron County. He says some good things to the website, and I think can bring some ideas to the debates. Name recognition is his biggest obstacle.

Rick Snyder. There's only one republican running that I am really against, and that's Snyder. The "non-politician" who gives the most political answers in his statements and answers to question. If Snyder is the nominee, 57-40% loss, and Cherry is governor. Mark it down. I'll have another post on this guy soon. Right Michigan has several threads about Snyder. I commended on Snyder here. Gateway has its outsourcing issues as well.

That leaves Mike Cox. I first heard of him in 2001. I was actually skeptical of him at first because he is from Wayne County and worked at the time for Mike Duggan. As someone active in the 2nd Amendment movement, there's nobody that was worse than Duggan. At the time, Cox was running against an establishment backed opponent. Cox went and campaigned in our area several times and I talked with him on several occasions. I then backed him for AG after he promised CPL reciprocity with other states in a clear manner without politicalese statements. Cox won by 5000 votes in an upset. Within a few months, Cox kept his promise. Since then, he's not only continued to kept his promise, but came through with an amicus brief several times in support for the 2nd Amendment. While it is great that he's pro-2nd Amendment, what is MORE importantly is that he made a clear promise, kept it, and even when above and beyond what he promised.

Mike Cox is not afraid to take a stand, no matter what the establishment thinks. When it came to the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative banning government sponsored racial preferences, the political class in both parties was against it or silent. Mike Cox supported it. Mike Cox is active in taking a stand against the runaway tax and spending. He was the only candidate to take a no tax pledge. He has consistently been pro-life. He's stood up to the giant bureaucracy, Blue Cross.

Mike Cox is a winner. He won statewide twice, by 5000 votes in 02 against a strong candidate in Gary Peters, and despite the 2006 disaster for Republicans statewide and nationally, he won again, this time, by 330,000+ votes. He only lost Alger, Genesee, Gogebic, Ingham (barely), Iron, Marquette, Ontonagon, Schoolcraft, Washtenaw, and Wayne Counties. He won Oakland. Big. He won Macomb. Big. More impressively, he won Kalamazoo, Bay, Saginaw, Alpena, and Muskegon counties. All those lean democrat. Some are blue collar union areas, and Kalamazoo is social liberal and university area. He won both types of areas.

Because of his promises kept, political philosophy on my major issues, and his history of winning statewide elections, I will be voting for Mike Cox in the 2010 primary election.

(Disclaimer - I'm speaking only for myself and not any organization of which I have ties or am in a position of leadership.)

Terri Land not running for governor. Bouchard receives her endorsement

Nick at Right Michigan breaks the story

This I didn't expect, but I have been wondering why Land was not as active as I thought she would be. I think what is more interesting though is who she endorsed. Bouchard, from the other side of the state. I think the big winner here is Pete Hoekstra.

We have running:
Mike Bouchard - Oakland County Sheriff
Mike Cox - AG, Wayne County
Rick Snyder - Ann Arbor businessman
Pete Hoekstra - Congressman from Holland
Tom George - State Senator from Kalamazoo

In my opinion, Land dropping out eliminated of one of the two strongest West MI candidates in the race. I don't think Tom George is all that well known outside of the Kalamazoo area, political junkies, and maybe Battle Creek as well. He may be a stronger candidate down the road, but I think he'll be going for Upton's Congressional position depending on redistricting, or Lt Governor.

As for the Bouchard endorsement, I think Land is running for Lt Governor. Does this help Bouchard? Some. I think it helps Hoekstra more. I think what is interesting is that despite some political ties, Land did not endorse Snyder. That tells me that there is either a major issue disagreement, or a question of an issue like experience. I don't think Snyder's going anywhere anyway.

I like Bouchard, but my concern for Bouchard is if can he win. I think he should have beaten Stabenow, not lose by 15%. If this was a 4-5% loss, I'd be less concerned because of the 2006 disaster, but DeVos ran better than Bouchard. Part of that was Stabenow being more popular than Granholm, but there's no way in hell we should be losing statewide races by 15%+. That only usually happens with no shows (McCain), quitters (McCain), and Sacrificial lambs (Levin's opponents).

I don't think that was all Bouchard's fault, but I didn't see as many specifics as I wanted to see in his last campaign. I hope that changes. The campaign in 06 was more on the line of Bouchard being a good guy and the sheriff. I agree with that, but we needed to see more. I hope we see more in the primary.

Still undecided in 2010.

Bouchard is in for Governor

Nick at Right Michigan posted this. The announcement was yesterday.

I like Bouchard, but I am concerned after what happened in his race against Stabenow who should have been defeated. Now Bouchard didn't get a lot of help which was a travesty, I am skeptical about backing someone that Stabenow got 57% against.

Personally, I'd like to see Bouchard run against Gary Peters instead.

Pete Hoekstra's in

It's official. Pete Hoekstra's running for governor, joining the long list of candidates.

The question with Hoekstra is how well is he known outside West Michigan? I think we'll be seeing a lot of him in this side of the state.

This is going to be an interesting primary. A lot of people have filed. With this many possible candidates and assuming their are no candidates withdrawing from the race, there are a few things to look for if you want to predict a winner.

1. Organization. The best organized campaign usually wins. It's the nuts and bolts of the campaign.

2. Ideology, geography, and split votes. If the organization is relatively equal, factors such as geography and ideology factor in. Go back to the 47th district back in 2002 for a geographic split, which along with organization, was a factor in Joe Hune's election to state rep.

3. Crossvotes. Is there a primary among the democrats, or can they crash ours (or vice versa)? Right now, it looks like there will be a primary there with Cherry and Dillon. Crossvotes were a factor when Joe Schwarz won in 2004.

I don't know who is favored right now. Mike Cox and Terri Land have a history of very well organized campaigns. Hoekstra has a major upset in a primary against Guy VanderJaght. Brooks, love him or hate him, has survived in Oakland County. All those things factor in here as well.

It'll be an interesting 2010. What I'd to see is a plan to help Michigan get out of its mess during the Granholm and Obama regimes.

Tim Skubick has an interesting theory

Tim Skubick at the Oakland Press has an interesting theory regarding Rick Snyder.

There are rumblings out there that the out-of-nowhere bid for governor launched last week by Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder might be a re-do of the GOP flap over attorney general years ago.
A source who is familiar with the GOP primary race for governor recalls that when then Gov. John Engler tried to anoint Scott Romney for A.G., the grassroots in the party rose up and rebuffed the governor and picked John Smietanka instead.
Fast-forward to the 2010 contest for governor and this source says attempts by GOP party chair Ron Weiser to impose Snyder on the party will "backfire. We are a grassroots party and when leadership tires to pick a candidate, the party rebels," contends his source.
To be sure, no one has been able to confirm that Weiser is behind the Snyder potential candidacy, but several sources within the party are shopping the notion and are personally convinced he is.

I'm not convinced it is, but I'm not convinced it isn't either. The thought crossed my mind for a couple of reasons, not the least of which that both Ron Weiser and Rick Snyder are from Ann Arbor. I also think many in State Party leadership fall in love with self-finance candidates no matter what else is out there. Now I don't have a problem with state party asking a candidate to run. As long as they don't jump in regular primary elections and pick favorites, I'm not going to complain about it. Rick Snyder has every right to run for governor. He just has to go through a real primary like everyone else. On the same note, my vote is my vote. These are primary elections and not coronations.

Which is a good thing, as I don't just have doubts on the life issues with Snyder. I have some MAJOR doubts on the fiscal issues based on his ties with Phil Power's Center for Michigan organization. He couldn't tell Jerry Zandstra his view on the business taxes? What about the spending? What about the Headlee tax caps and property tax caps that Phil Power has been after with his "Citizens for Michigan" Constitutional Convention push in 2010? I don't need a gubenatorial candidate using a con-con in his bully pulpit.

The John Smietanka comparison from Skubick brings out another issues. It is a warning at the grass roots. Smietanka was not a good candidate for reasons I don't have to rehash here, and we need to make sure our candidates for governor, AG, and Secretary of State, are good candidates. If Smietanka won in 98, there would be no Granholm today.

I haven't made my decision yet for governor. I'm keeping my powder dry for now.

Rick Snyder for governor? Starts off with two strikes.

The race for governor has already begun, and some buzz has come up regarding one of the unknowns who just announced. Rick Snyder, who is a former CEO of Gateway Computers.

From the Ann Arbor News

Ann Arbor resident and venture capitalist Rick Snyder announced today that he has formed an exploratory committee to evaluate and explore a possible run for governor.
A Republican, Snyder is the co-founder, chairman and CEO of Ardesta, one of the nation's largest investment firms focused on micro and nanotechnology companies.

He was the former President and COO of Gateway, Inc.

Gateway Computers is strike one. I had a real bad experience with one. He was CEO until 1997. 1997 was when I bought mine that ended up being a disaster. I went through three motherboards, and two harddrives. It was one of the biggest wastes of money I ever bought. I'm still sore about that and have not bought a Gateway since, nor do I plan on doing so.

Nick DeLeeuw at Right Michigan has been following the Rick Snyder campaign heavily, and he's not a supporter of him. There are several threads covering his political activity. I don't know Snyder. I never knowingly met him at any political event. Nick said the same thing. He's an unknown. What I've seen so far, has not been a great impression.

Nick found that he donated to the group supporting Proposal 2. Now I found when I was checking Rick Snyder's campaign records, that he said he was an attorney. One thing that Rick and I will agree on then is that ballot language is important. Did he read the language in proposal 2? Can he tell me what "discourage" means? In the proposal 2 link above, I posted the actual language, and not what politicians say it means. That is strike 2, along with his vague answers to Jerry Zandstra.

He doesn't say what he's going to do. He said he was pro-life, but how does he reconcile that with his big check to prop 2 ("Cure Michigan"). His 2nd Amendment answer was better, but still too vague. He did not mention whether he supported more restrictions. Most importantly, he didn't mention his view for the economy. No specific plans? For someone claimed to fed up with professional politicians, he sounded like one there.

On the positive side, he does support the right judges. That's a start, and good enough for me not to shut the door on his campaign completely with strike 3.

Here's my first question for Mr. Snyder. As CEO of Gateway or any other company, did you authorize or outsource any manufacturing to China or Mexico? Is there even the appearance of doing so? If so, you will lose.

As he was the CEO of Gateway Computers, we all know that will be researched faster than Granholm can say crow about a tax increase. Outsourcing is a major issue and one of the major reasons why Michigan has lost so many jobs. Part of the job losses are Clinton'a NAFTA and GATT. While I support true free trade, those two trade agreements were not real free trade and I opposed them. That was one of the reasons why I support Ron Paul in the GOP primary.

Many conservatives in Michigan are not Republicans. Many pro-life and pro-gun conservatives who do not like taxes are not Republicans. They still think democrats are supportive of the "working man." Now while I disagree because Soros and Hollywood own the party, I'm not going to take the Thomas Frank arrogance and BS approach and tell them that they are voting against their best interest like that jackass tries to tell me. I know that I don't know their best interest and don't claim to do so. Nobody votes against their best interest. What the Republicans have to do is convince them so their interest is to vote for the republican. That's called earning their vote. There's a trust factor there that needs to be earned.

On a sidenote related to the paragraph above, there's one thing within the Michigan GOP that drives me up a wall. Too many people, both establishment and among the grassroots fall in love with candidates who can self-finance...just because they can self-finance. Money is important in politics. That's why people like convicted criminal and anti-capitalist George Soros are so dangerous. It isn't however the only thing. This is Michigan. We are a populist state. Even Michigan-born Mitt Romney could not break 50% here in the primary despite 75% the establishment support (partly due to his ability to self-finance). Michigan, especially in important competitive areas like the UP, Northern Lower outside the Lake Michigan coast, Flint/Saginaw suburbs, the thumb, Macomb County, and Downriver do not trust big-business. That was a big worry I had when Dick DeVos was the nominee. Now, I thought DeVos would have been a very good governor, but I had some concerns as a candidate appealing to working class swing voters because of his background. As soon as I saw the attacks on DeVos and China sticking, I knew it was over, and that we were going to suffer another four years of the Matt Millen of governors. Is Snyder going to face the same attacks as DeVos? Is he able to counter them? Will he have to watch his right flank on social issues as well (which DeVos largely was able to avoid). That's the $64,000 question.

I have not made any early endorsements. I have not jumped on any bandwagon. I will say that I have not been impressed with what little I have seen so far, compared to some of the candidates who are probably running. He has to show me something more than vagnueness and political speak to get my support. There is no third strike, and I haven't shut the door on his campaign yet because of the judicial candidates he's supported. However, there's a lot I need to see before I can jump aboard this bandwagon.

UPDATE - I just found he was tied in with Phil Power's "Center of Michigan" crowd as well. Does he support a state constititutional convention as well? What views does he share with Mr. Power? Tax increases?