Wednesday, August 01, 2012

MI-11 - Is this poll legit or does it matter?

I'm still skeptical about this. I think it will take at least 35,000 write-in votes to have a shot. If a quitter in MI-8 got 22,000 votes (in 2010) after announcing he's quitting over a write-in, It would take probably 35K to play ball, and Bentivolio's actually running a campaign. I don't like coronations so I hope Bentivolio wins. I think he'll hang on just because of the difficulty of a write-in election for a large office.

From the Free Press:

WASHINGTON –Winning a write-in campaign for a nomination to Congress is daunting, but former state Sen. Nancy Cassis appears to be heading in the right direction.
Cassis, of Novi, is leading her rival Kerry Bentivolio of Milford 52% to 36% in Tuesday’s Republican primary for the 11th Congressional idstrict, even though Bentivolio’s name is the only one on the ballot, a poll conducted for the Free Press, WXYX-TV (Channel 7) and three outstate stations shows.
Cassis was tapped by Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson and other local Republican leaders in June as the best candidate to run a write-in campaign against Bentivolio, a former teacher and reindeer rancher who has never been elected to public office.
Bentivolio got a leg up in the race when the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Livonia, dropped a write-in bid of his own after failing to make the ballot when his campaign submitted fradulent and duplicated signatures in support of his reelection effort.
The poll was done by EPIC-MRA of Lansing last Saturday and Sunday. It surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The thing with polls to remember are these.

1. Polls are at best a snapshot in time of the opinions of a good sample of the electorate. That's if they are done right. Early polls for November, I absolutely discount at this point because things change so often. Primary election polls are another matter.

2. Polls can be wrong, whether it be by sample, weight, or other matters. The rise of cell phones make things tougher, as does Caller ID. 

3. How do you poll a write-in? In most of Oakland County, there are other Republican races with a lot of hype as well. Townships, US Senate, Judicial. Is congressional at the top of the list? Maybe in Novi.

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

1 comment:

Denis Curran said...

" ... a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

So much for the expertise and authority of the mainstream media. Something to remember for the next election as well.