Congressional District 6 - Updated (MI-06)

2014 Update:
Fred Upton has another primary. This time it is Jim Bussler, a nurse out of Dowagiac. Upton has had tough primaries over some votes in the past, but has survived them, even when others like Joe Schwarz did not. The dems are running Paul Clements, a sacrificial lamb candidate. However, nothing is 100% here with Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor.

MI-06 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Fred Upton  (R-St Joseph)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 28

Challengers – Jim Bussler (R-Dowagiac), Paul Clements (D-Kalamazoo)

2012:

Fred Upton – 174955 – 54.59%

Mike O’Brien  – 136536 – 42.61%

38392 vote difference

Romney –  162809 votes – 50.08%

Obama –  159024 votes – 48.76%

4413 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 155186 votes – 45.09%

Obama – 182750 votes – 53.24%

-28063  vote difference

2004:

Bush – 175704 votes – 53.73%

Kerry – 148028 votes – 45.27%

27676 vote difference

This district is – on paper – a swing district. It has some strong GOP and strong democrat areas and is usually close in presidential elections. On paper is what’s key. Despite being competitive in presidential races, the only base that elects state reps is in the City of Kalamazoo. They have no democrat state senate districts (although contend for one all elections) and only have one state rep. That’s not to say that we don’t need to keep an eye on things here.

Fred Upton’s a moderate republican whose toughest election was 2012. It was his first general election win with less than 55% of the vote. He did better in even 2006 and 2008, overall horrific years. Conservatives never were enamored with him. Liberals aren’t crossing over for him as they used to. He’s biggest strength is in his home area of St Joe in Berrien County.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in District 5. I did three maps here because this district is so close in 2012. 04 was the high side recently, and 2012 is the low side.  The maps are in order of most recent election of the three. I don’t have exact Holland borders here because of the city re-precincting names between 08-12. I may be slightly off with Berrien County townships as well. The last two maps cut off the top part of Allegan County. It’s mostly 70%+ across the board every election.

 

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green (City of Hartford in Van Buren County)

2012:

 

2008:

2004:

Starting at the top with Allegan County. Allegan County has part Holland influence, part Grand Rapids influence, and part Kalamazoo influence. Allegan County is a GOP Stronghold at 59%, but looking at the microlevel, you’ll see that the dems are not without strength here. The GOP is strong because that Northern tier is absolutely blood red. Overisel Twp is the 2^nd most GOP township in the state in 2012 (at times it is first). That’s as much a part of the Dutch area as Ottawa County is. The southern tier is competitive, although Bush almost swept it in 2004. Bush did extremely well in the competitive areas. Of the areas Romney lost, Bush won Allegan, Cheshire Twp, Clyde Twp, Fennville, Otsego, Otsego Twp, Plainwell, and the portion of South Haven. He lost Lee Twp, Saugatuck, and Saugatuck Twp. Douglas wasn’t incorporated as a city then and part of Saugatuck Twp, so he probably lost that too.

The dems have Saugatuck/Douglas which is the gay capital of West Michigan (or so I’ve heard.) Fennville has a large Mexican population as does Clyde and Lee Townships. I’m not 100% sure, but I think Plainwell and Otsego have union presence. It’s also close to Kalamazoo. South Haven is dem, but it’s not as bad as it looks. Obama got 70% in the Allegan part, but that’s due to winning 5-2. (It’s usually 50-55% dem citywide) Still, we’re bleeding here. Bush got 62.52% here in the district part of Allegan (almost all of it). McCain dropped to 54.08%. Romney got 59.22 in a recovery, but there’s still a lot more blue here than 2004. The dems are making inroads. Are we in danger of losing this county? No way – not with the northern part of the county. Will that southern tier factor in a congressional race? That’s a possibility, when you have Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor in the district.

Kalamazoo County is the biggest part of the district. It’s also trending to the left. It was close to 50/50 in 2000. It was 51/47 in 2004. 59/39 in 08. Romney controlled some of the bleeding and it’s now 56/43. Downticket, it’s not AS bad, but still a cause of concern. I don’t know this county as well as blogger Conservative First from the Western Right blog. He can correct any errors I have here. Bush lost only four municipalities in 2004. Romney lost seven. (McCain 9). The four Bush lost are Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, and Galesburg. Kalamazoo City is a dem stronghold. You have WMU in the western part of the city, and a high black population in the north end. Kalamazoo Twp has some of those same areas to a lesser extent. The problem today is that Bush’s 32% (-10,000 vote spread) and 41% (-1760) are now Romney’s 24.50% (-14662) and 33%. (-3477). Oshtemo and Comstock townships are to the West and East. Oshtemo Twp is WMU country. It’s gone from close to 50/50 to 57% dem. Galesburg is blue, but not by a giant margin. It’s those three municipalities Romney lost that Bush didn’t that scare me. Portage, Comstock Twp, and Parchment. Those are three suburbs that border Kalamazoo. I don’t know those suburbs in depth except that Portage is the 2^nd largest city in the county. It’s always been close, but Bush won it twice. Parchment is rapidly going blue. Romney did worse than McCain there. I don’t know much about Comstock outside of Bell’s beer. It’s still close. Those three areas are the key to reducing losses in the county. We have to do so here.

St Joseph County (City is in Berrien County) to the Southeast I know very little about and I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country. The only area that went for Obama was Three Rivers. Bush did very well in the rural parts of SW and South Central Michigan along the I-94 corridor and I-69 N/S Corridor – much better than both Romney and McCain. Romney won it with 55.55%, but Bush broke 60% here. McCain cratered and barely won it. Three Rivers is reliably dem. Romney and Bush both won the rest of the area, although Bush to a much larger degree.

Cass County to the West I know very little about. I drove through it once. It’s old free soil country, and it was a major stop on the Underground Railroad. It has a sizable black population for a rural county (Dowagiac, Cassopolis and Vandalia) that goes back 150 years, although the population is much lower than Berrien County. It’s also prone to wild election swings. Bush and Romney got 57 and 56% with a similar number of votes. Bush struggled here more in 2000. McCain cratered here with 46.89%. McCain didn’t break 57% in any municipality. Romney broke 60%+ in 6 of them, Bush in 5 of them. McCain lost 8 municipalities, Romney lost three and Bush lost two. LaGrange Twp and Dowagiac are the constant dem areas. Calvin Twp went for Obama twice, but Bush won it in 2004. In a district like the 6^th, this is a key area for the R’s.

Van Buren County is erratic, but has had a bit of a blue taint lately. There’s a sizable Chicago influence here, and no Benton Harbor to counter-influence. The Mexican population has increased here as well with the farms. Bush won the area narrowly. Romney lost it by 160 votes. Obama won Antwerp Twp twice. Covert twp is heavily minority. South Haven is a former small industrial area now a tourist haven for Chicagoland. Bangor, Decatur Twp, Geneva Twp, Paw Paw Twp, and South Haven City/Twp have gone dem the last three presidential elections, mostly narrowly in Bush’s case, but less so for Romney. It’s been close in elections since 92, and is a key county in this district. Hopefully Obama being gone will flip this district as Chicago homerism is less of a factor.

Lastly, Berrien County is the battle of strongholds. It’s the Southwest corner of Michigan, and you are as likely to see Chicago sports teams supported as Detroit teams. New Buffalo is about an hour away from there, and there’s a lot of vacation homes there. Niles is across the border from South Bend, which is the closest major city. There are a couple swing areas that are competitive, like Buchanan and New Buffalo, but most of this district is heavily red or blue. A candidate wins by turning out the base and narrowing the wins in other parts of the district. The three strongholds for the dems here are Benton Harbor, Benton Township, and to a much lesser extent, Niles. Niles sometimes is close. Benton Township/Benton Harbor is majority black and votes accordingly. Obama won the township with about 75%, and the city 97%+ the last two elections. Kerry won the two areas by 5800, Obama in 2008 by 7900 and in 2012 by 6600. Lincoln Township is the big Republican stronghold, along with many of  the smaller townships (60%+). They also do well in St Joseph (almost always called St Joe) by a lesser amount. Bush won the county by 8200 votes, McCain lost by 4200, and Romney won by 4700. It leans R, but not safe. This is also a key county in the district if it opens up. Obama being gone may make this more Republican as Chicago homerism wanes. 

District 6	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Allegan County
Allegan	765	989	1790	-224	42.74%	55.25%
Allegan Twp	987	953	1967	34	50.18%	48.45%
Casco Twp	707	689	1412	18	50.07%	48.80%
Cheshire Twp	420	441	874	-21	48.05%	50.46%
Clyde Twp	326	400	744	-74	43.82%	53.76%
Door Twp	2545	1124	3728	1421	68.27%	30.15%
Douglas	266	447	719	-181	37.00%	62.17%
Fennville	162	243	415	-81	39.04%	58.55%
Fillmore Twp	1184	240	1436	944	82.45%	16.71%
Ganges Twp	693	655	1363	38	50.84%	48.06%
Gunplain Twp	1560	1398	2994	162	52.10%	46.69%
Heath Twp	1267	400	1695	867	74.75%	23.60%
Holland 9-4	555	320	886	235	62.64%	36.12%
Holland 11-5	511	331	852	180	59.98%	38.85%
Holland 12-5	691	269	964	422	71.68%	27.90%
Hopkins Twp	817	450	1277	367	63.98%	35.24%
Laketown Twp	2433	1172	3631	1261	67.01%	32.28%
Lee Twp	395	480	889	-85	44.43%	53.99%
Leighton Twp	1954	607	2585	1347	75.59%	23.48%
Manlius Twp	1023	475	1505	548	67.97%	31.56%
Martin Twp	746	420	1183	326	63.06%	35.50%
Monterey Twp	631	374	1031	257	61.20%	36.28%
Otsego	700	852	1576	-152	44.42%	54.06%
Otsego Twp	1238	1245	2522	-7	49.09%	49.37%
Overisel Twp	1372	223	1619	1149	84.74%	13.77%
Plainwell	761	882	1662	-121	45.79%	53.07%
Salem Twp	1606	544	2180	1062	73.67%	24.95%
Saugatuck	230	357	598	-127	38.46%	59.70%
Saugatuck Twp	874	907	1797	-33	48.64%	50.47%
South Haven (part)	2	5	7	-3	28.57%	71.43%
Trowbridge Twp	600	525	1153	75	52.04%	45.53%
Valley Twp	474	385	876	89	54.11%	43.95%
Watson Twp	509	392	913	117	55.75%	42.94%
Wayland	899	719	1644	180	54.68%	43.73%
Wayland Twp	885	602	1499	283	59.04%	40.16%
Total	30788	20515	51986	10273	59.22%	39.46%
Berrien County
Bainbridge Twp	976	405	1397	571	69.86%	28.99%
Baroda Twp	908	453	1379	455	65.84%	32.85%
Benton Harbor	92	3797	3906	-3705	2.36%	97.21%
Benton Township	1461	4393	5893	-2932	24.79%	74.55%
Berrien Twp	1400	802	2234	598	62.67%	35.90%
Bertrand Twp	902	495	1408	407	64.06%	35.16%
Bridgman	664	455	1134	209	58.55%	40.12%
Buchanan	909	887	1829	22	49.70%	48.50%
Buchanan Twp	1011	604	1638	407	61.72%	36.87%
Chikaming Twp	928	863	1818	65	51.05%	47.47%
Coloma	434	264	705	170	61.56%	37.45%
Coloma Twp	1494	728	2237	766	66.79%	32.54%
Galien Twp	342	269	617	73	55.43%	43.60%
Hagar Twp	1002	622	1648	380	60.80%	37.74%
Lake Twp	1060	613	1699	447	62.39%	36.08%
Lincoln Twp	5367	2589	8044	2778	66.72%	32.19%
New Buffalo	423	493	923	-70	45.83%	53.41%
New Buffalo Twp	646	655	1321	-9	48.90%	49.58%
Niles	1876	2320	4242	-444	44.22%	54.69%
Niles Twp	3250	2650	5969	600	54.45%	44.40%
Oronoko Twp	1802	1543	3402	259	52.97%	45.36%
Pipestone Twp	707	336	1057	371	66.89%	31.79%
Royalton Twp	1916	742	2670	1174	71.76%	27.79%
Sodus Twp	606	363	983	243	61.65%	36.93%
St Joseph	2364	1937	4357	427	54.26%	44.46%
St Joseph Twp	3398	2543	5990	855	56.73%	42.45%
Three Oaks Twp	643	574	1247	69	51.56%	46.03%
Watervliet	329	258	596	71	55.20%	43.29%
Watervliet Twp	748	449	1214	299	61.61%	36.99%
Weesaw Twp	551	363	937	188	58.80%	38.74%
Total	38209	33465	72494	4744	52.71%	46.16%
Cass County
Calvin Twp	405	454	871	-49	46.50%	52.12%
Dowagiac	712	1258	1981	-546	35.94%	63.50%
Howard Twp	1602	1266	2902	336	55.20%	43.63%
Jefferson Twp	665	487	1166	178	57.03%	41.77%
LaGrange Twp	614	827	1452	-213	42.29%	56.96%
Marcellus Twp	511	484	1008	27	50.69%	48.02%
Mason Twp	685	371	1066	314	64.26%	34.80%
Milton Twp	1047	502	1565	545	66.90%	32.08%
Newberg Twp	395	313	717	82	55.09%	43.65%
Ontwa Twp	1862	1010	2900	852	64.21%	34.83%
Penn Twp	537	351	897	186	59.87%	39.13%
Pokagon Twp	515	426	956	89	53.87%	44.56%
Porter Twp	1262	584	1863	678	67.74%	31.35%
Silver Creek Twp	908	562	1488	346	61.02%	37.77%
Volinia Twp	314	192	513	122	61.21%	37.43%
Wayne Twp	625	504	1145	121	54.59%	44.02%
Total	12659	9591	22490	3068	56.29%	42.65%
Kalamazoo County
Alamo Twp	1271	897	2185	374	58.17%	41.05%
Brady Twp	1392	945	2364	447	58.88%	39.97%
Charleston Twp	575	441	1039	134	55.34%	42.44%
Climax Twp	736	490	1235	246	59.60%	39.68%
Comstock Twp	3622	3993	7708	-371	46.99%	51.80%
Cooper Twp	2735	2608	5409	127	50.56%	48.22%
Galesburg	307	365	682	-58	45.01%	53.52%
Kalamazoo	7280	21942	29671	-14662	24.54%	73.95%
Kalamazoo Twp	3469	6946	10547	-3477	32.89%	65.86%
Oshtemo Twp	4600	6252	10959	-1652	41.97%	57.05%
Parchment	369	534	912	-165	40.46%	58.55%
Pavilion Twp	1589	1358	2980	231	53.32%	45.57%
Portage	11918	12966	25178	-1048	47.33%	51.50%
Prairie Ronde Twp	824	458	1289	366	63.93%	35.53%
Richland Twp	2462	1898	4406	564	55.88%	43.08%
Ross Twp	1747	1251	3016	496	57.92%	41.48%
Schoolcraft Twp	2299	1877	4230	422	54.35%	44.37%
Texas Twp	5070	3616	8753	1454	57.92%	41.31%
Wakeshima Twp	397	214	615	183	64.55%	34.80%
Total	52662	69051	123178	-16389	42.75%	56.06%
St Joseph County
Burr Oak Twp	568	417	995	151	57.09%	41.91%
Colon Twp	685	544	1243	141	55.11%	43.77%
Constantine Twp	862	658	1535	204	56.16%	42.87%
Fabius Twp	946	682	1644	264	57.54%	41.48%
Fawn River Twp	393	242	642	151	61.21%	37.69%
Florence Twp	329	188	524	141	62.79%	35.88%
Flowerfield Twp	393	315	715	78	54.97%	44.06%
Leonidias Twp	291	160	465	131	62.58%	34.41%
Lockport Twp	875	824	1717	51	50.96%	47.99%
Mendon Twp	641	608	1263	33	50.75%	48.14%
Mottville Twp	334	229	586	105	57.00%	39.08%
Nottawa Twp	791	603	1403	188	56.38%	42.98%
Park Twp	702	534	1251	168	56.12%	42.69%
Sherman Twp	1015	534	1559	481	65.11%	34.25%
Sturgis	1746	1304	3085	442	56.60%	42.27%
Sturgis Twp	487	298	795	189	61.26%	37.48%
Three Rivers	986	1443	2470	-457	39.92%	58.42%
White Pigeon Twp	934	529	1469	405	63.58%	36.01%
Total	12978	10112	23361	2866	55.55%	43.29%
Van Buren County
Almena Twp	1391	1291	2712	100	51.29%	47.60%
Antwerp Twp	2846	2892	5805	-46	49.03%	49.82%
Arlington Twp	437	380	830	57	52.65%	45.78%
Bangor	227	373	605	-146	37.52%	61.65%
Bangor Twp	431	334	774	97	55.68%	43.15%
Bloomingdale Twp	644	612	1270	32	50.71%	48.19%
Columbia Twp	492	486	989	6	49.75%	49.14%
Covert Twp	258	714	980	-456	26.33%	72.86%
Decatur Twp	675	769	1465	-94	46.08%	52.49%
Geneva Twp	664	731	1409	-67	47.13%	51.88%
Gobles	176	143	332	33	53.01%	43.07%
Hamilton Twp	328	325	660	3	49.70%	49.24%
Hartford	362	362	733	0	49.39%	49.39%
Hartford Twp	628	417	1060	211	59.25%	39.34%
Keeler Twp	558	392	970	166	57.53%	40.41%
Lawrence Twp	699	583	1299	116	53.81%	44.88%
Paw Paw Twp	1384	1528	2947	-144	46.96%	51.85%
Pine Grove Twp	773	613	1411	160	54.78%	43.44%
Porter Twp	689	613	1321	76	52.16%	46.40%
South Haven	1060	1328	2403	-268	44.11%	55.26%
South Haven Twp	861	876	1760	-15	48.92%	49.77%
Waverly Twp	558	528	1102	30	50.64%	47.91%
Total	16141	16290	32837	-149	49.15%	49.61%
Total All	163437	159024	326346	4413	50.08%	48.73%

Upcoming 2013 Elections

The Secretary of State lists all the May Elections here.

There's three elections here in different parts of  Livingston County.

Hartland Schools and Dexter Schools have millage renewal proposals. I don't know who drew up the school boundaries to put a portion of Dexter schools in this county (Hamburg) since it doesn't make geographic sense. Interestingly with Dexter, the village is having a vote on incorporation. It may become a city.

We also have an uncontested primary for District 5's County Commissioner district covering Howell, Howell Township, and Cohoctah Township. Despite that, we need to make sure that our folks vote and vote for Don Parker. Parker may be uncontested, but a good primary showing for him may put momentum on our side for the August general election which IS contested.

There is going to be at least one election this August. District 5 County Commissioner's special general election. There may or may not be more. That depends on how many candidates run for City Councils.

Brighton and Howell City Council have their nonpartisan elections this year. If there are more than double the number of candidates per positions running, then we will have a primary and a general similar to the old southern style elections where there's a run-off.

From the Argus.

Howell City Clerk Jane Cartwright said Mayor Phillip Campbell is the only incumbent to have filed a petition.
Cartwright said Nick Proctor has filed to run for the council.
She said the mayor and three council seats are up for election in November. Cartwright said incumbents Jeff Hansen and Scott Niblock have pulled petitions, as have Daria Devantier, Nikolas Hertrich and Richard Grimes.

There could very well be a primary there. This could impact the Parker/Tipton race.

In Brighton, Susan Walters-Steinacker hopes to be the new face on the City Council by making her fifth bid for the seat.Walters-Steinacker said she has pulled petitions and is planning on running. “I think Councilmember (Jim) Bohn needs some help on protecting the residents of the city,” she said.

The four Brighton City Council seats up in this election belong to Claudia Roblee, Shawn Pipoly, Ricci Bandkau and Larry Schillinger.
Bandkau said she wants to run one more time.
“I do plan on running, but this will probably be my last time,” Bandkau said. “I have to stir the pot at least a couple more years.”

These elections don't get the hype of a presidential year, but are still extremely important. 

Congressional District 5 - Updated 2013 (MI-05)

2014 Update:
GOP is running Allen Hardwick (R-Ypsilanti) and Tom Whitmire (R-Flushing) to challenge Dan Kildee. While you don't have to live in the district to run for Congress, I think it's real bad form to run for a seat 50 miles from where you live. That would be like me running in Levin's seat.

This district is a real tough go anyway and it will take a Bill Jefferson or Dan Rostenkowski situation to win this district.

MI-05 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2010 Update is here.

Incumbent – Daniel Kildee (D-Flint Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 2
Challengers – Allen Hardwick (R-Ypsilanti) and Tom Whitmire (R-Flushing)

2012:

Jim Slezak – 103931 – 31.48%

Daniel Kildee  – 214531 – 64.98%

-110600 vote difference

Romney – 130421 votes – 38.35%

Obama – 206294 votes – 60.66%

-75873 vote difference.

2008:

McCain – 130127 votes – 35.40%

Obama – 231432 votes – 62.97%

-101305 vote difference

2004:

Bush – 147774 votes – 40.96%

Kerry – 210205 votes – 58.26%

-62431 vote difference

This district is mostly a blue sink with some bridges and county split avoidances. Like the 2002 similar district, Genesee County is kept whole while Saginaw County is split. Bay County is made whole this time along with marginal swing counties of Iosco and Arenac which the mapmakers wanted to take away from Benishek. Tuscola County was split some as Candice Miller needed to take more of the thumb as Levin’s district expanded.

Genesee County dominates the district. It’s either the 2^nd or 3^rd most Democrat county in the state in any given year. That’s due to Flint along with most of its suburbs which are also blue. The bluest parts of Saginaw County are also in this district, as is the more moderate but yellow dog Bay County. Tuscola County is the bridge between Saginaw and Genesee as Birch Run was put in Camp’s district to give him Frankenmuth.

This is a safe D district, and you’ll see how safe it is, despite Dale Kildee’s (Dan’s uncle) scare in the wave year. Between Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Mount Morris, and Buena Vista, it would take the perfect storm to win.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, except that I’ll replace the black with dark blue for 70% d areas.

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Iosco and Arenac are somewhat similar swing counties. Iosco is more apt to go Republican, although Romney won Arenac, something Bush was unable to do (lost by 5 votes in 04). These are populist counties which prefer Joel Sheltrown or Jim Barcia democrats compared to national democrats. Most of Iosco County is a swing area, although the GOP is strong in Alabaster Twp and Tawas while the dems are strong in Au Sable, Whittemore/Burleigh Twp, and Grant Twp. Arenac is mostly swing as well, but Adams Twp is a deep red island in an otherwise competitive area.  Deep River Twp (Sterling), Arenac Twp/Omer, and Standish Twp (east of Standish) are strong dem areas, usually stronger than in 2012.

Bay County is a yellow dog county most of the time. It’s competitive outside of the city area itself, but outside of 2012, the dems usually win that too. Pinconning, Fraser Twp, and Hampton Twp are usually much more dem than they were in 2012. Those are often 55%+. Bay City is the big dem stronghold. It was again 60%+ in 2012. Romney held the dems to 52.22%. I think we are slowly gaining some ground here. Kerry had 54% and Obama 08 had 56.75%

South of there is part of Saginaw County. Most of the county is in the 4^th, but the major dem parts are here. Blumfield Twp is 70%R and similar to Frankenmuth in voting, and Saginaw Twp can go either way overall, but leans slightly R. That’s the mix of precincts west of the city. Saginaw itself is just getting worse by percentage as whites leave town. 74.02% Kerry to 79.80% Obama to 81.01% Obama. Romney had 400 less votes than McCain. Obama had a 1000 less vote spread anyway, but that’s what makes the county go blue. Bridgeport and Carrolton are going to be more and more trouble as well with migration. Buena Vista Twp is black majority and an extension of East Saginaw.

East of there is a small part of Tuscola County mostly as a bridge to Genesee County so Camp could get Frankenmuth. There’s some strong GOP townships there, as well as dem Arbela twp.

Genesee County shows the story of this district. Flint is 89.03% Democrat now, up from 83.07% in 04 and even 88.13% in 08. Flint Twp just broke 70% D and is going to soon be another Mt Morris Twp (79.69%) due to migration. Romney had less votes countywide than McCain. Most of the light blue areas are just that. Blue. Flushing, Gaines, and Clayton Townships are winnable. Bush won it. Grand Blanc may be gone with migration, but I wouldn’t give up on it just yet. We’re bleeding badly in Davison. Obama broke 60% there which he didn’t do in 08. In this county, the key is to get what we can and win the Southern part of the County. Fenton, Linden, Argentine, Atlas Twp, and hopefully still Grand Blanc. Flushing is another major area. We also need to stop the bleeding in Davison (Michael Moore’s homeown).

Hopefully some more ground can be made up here with the auto bailout being less of an issue with Obama gone. Bush got this district under 60% Dem and in order to win statewide, that needs to be done again.  

District 5	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Arenac County
Adams Twp	180	92	274	88	65.69%	33.58%
Arenac Twp	192	233	433	-41	44.34%	53.81%
Au Gres	257	202	468	55	54.91%	43.16%
Au Gres Twp	306	248	560	58	54.64%	44.29%
Clayton Twp	202	245	458	-43	44.10%	53.49%
Deep River Twp	507	528	1052	-21	48.19%	50.19%
Lincoln Twp	228	183	417	45	54.68%	43.88%
Mason Twp	187	171	360	16	51.94%	47.50%
Moffatt Twp	354	300	667	54	53.07%	44.98%
Omer	43	74	119	-31	36.13%	62.18%
Sims Twp	379	281	666	98	56.91%	42.19%
Standish	307	251	571	56	53.77%	43.96%
Standish Twp	423	478	914	-55	46.28%	52.30%
Turner Twp	146	118	268	28	54.48%	44.03%
Whitney Twp	346	265	614	81	56.35%	43.16%
Total	4057	3669	7841	388	51.74%	46.79%
Bay County
Auburn	635	483	1132	152	56.10%	42.67%
Bangor Twp	3749	4115	7932	-366	47.26%	51.88%
Bay City	5029	8773	13949	-3744	36.05%	62.89%
Beaver Twp	797	635	1448	162	55.04%	43.85%
Essexville	906	1062	1992	-156	45.48%	53.31%
Frankenlust Twp	1370	718	2105	652	65.08%	34.11%
Fraser Twp	801	863	1694	-62	47.28%	50.94%
Garfield Twp	455	445	919	10	49.51%	48.42%
Gibson Twp	267	257	533	10	50.09%	48.22%
Hampton Twp	2195	2630	4889	-435	44.90%	53.79%
Kawkawlin Twp	1272	1169	2467	103	51.56%	47.39%
Merritt Twp	448	363	819	85	54.70%	44.32%
Midland	23	30	54	-7	42.59%	55.56%
Monitor Twp	3388	2882	6332	506	53.51%	45.51%
Mount Forest Twp	367	317	695	50	52.81%	45.61%
Pinconning	257	309	577	-52	44.54%	53.55%
Pinconning Twp	609	617	1237	-8	49.23%	49.88%
Portsmouth Twp	852	1060	1936	-208	44.01%	54.75%
Williams Twp	1491	1149	2671	342	55.82%	43.02%
Total	24911	27877	53381	-2966	46.67%	52.22%
Genesee County
Argentine Twp	1871	1502	3422	369	54.68%	43.89%
Atlas Twp	2655	1978	4670	677	56.85%	42.36%
Burton	4834	8348	13344	-3514	36.23%	62.56%
Clayton Twp	1991	2197	4240	-206	46.96%	51.82%
Clio	403	654	1069	-251	37.70%	61.18%
Davison	1004	1620	2659	-616	37.76%	60.93%
Davison Twp	4628	5457	10182	-829	45.45%	53.59%
Fenton	2809	2751	5630	58	49.89%	48.86%
Fenton Twp	5280	3786	9143	1494	57.75%	41.41%
Flint	4111	35630	40018	-31519	10.27%	89.03%
Flint Twp	4268	10463	14838	-6195	28.76%	70.51%
Flushing	2328	2476	4833	-148	48.17%	51.23%
Flushing Twp	2842	3078	5980	-236	47.53%	51.47%
Forest Twp	1114	1371	2513	-257	44.33%	54.56%
Gaines Twp	1763	1987	3781	-224	46.63%	52.55%
Genesee Twp	3122	6636	9898	-3514	31.54%	67.04%
Grand Blanc	2006	2261	4302	-255	46.63%	52.56%
Grand Blanc Twp	8785	10565	19502	-1780	45.05%	54.17%
Linden	1181	951	2149	230	54.96%	44.25%
Montrose	282	419	719	-137	39.22%	58.28%
Montrose Twp	1233	1647	2923	-414	42.18%	56.35%
Mount Morris	324	848	1192	-524	27.18%	71.14%
Mount Morris Twp	1919	7716	9693	-5797	19.80%	79.60%
Mundy Twp	3818	4446	8340	-628	45.78%	53.31%
Richfield Twp	1956	2637	4645	-681	42.11%	56.77%
Swartz Creek	1290	1798	3122	-508	41.32%	57.59%
Thetford Twp	1339	2072	3473	-733	38.55%	59.66%
Vienna Twp	2654	3711	6430	-1057	41.28%	57.71%
Total	71810	129005	202710	-57195	35.42%	63.64%
Iosco County
Alabaster Twp	183	118	304	65	60.20%	38.82%
Au Sable Twp	478	520	1015	-42	47.09%	51.23%
Baldwin Twp	509	429	945	80	53.86%	45.40%
Burleigh Twp	151	183	339	-32	44.54%	53.98%
East Tawas	780	659	1457	121	53.53%	45.23%
Grant Twp	366	394	768	-28	47.66%	51.30%
Oscoda Twp	1861	1690	3608	171	51.58%	46.84%
Plainfield Twp	981	955	1947	26	50.39%	49.05%
Reno Twp	169	145	316	24	53.48%	45.89%
Sherman Twp	136	117	261	19	52.11%	44.83%
Tawas City	465	366	839	99	55.42%	43.62%
Tawas Twp	539	380	932	159	57.83%	40.77%
Whittemore	78	98	188	-20	41.49%	52.13%
Wilber Twp	233	188	425	45	54.82%	44.24%
Total	6929	6242	13344	687	51.93%	46.78%
Saginaw County (part)
Blumfield Twp	868	303	1183	565	73.37%	25.61%
Bridgeport Twp	1861	3391	5303	-1530	35.09%	63.94%
Buena Vista Twp	494	3580	4092	-3086	12.07%	87.49%
Carrollton Twp	952	1754	2746	-802	34.67%	63.87%
Saginaw	3736	16788	20724	-13052	18.03%	81.01%
Saginaw Twp 1	476	772	1259	-296	37.81%	61.32%
Saginaw Twp 2	702	487	1202	215	58.40%	40.52%
Saginaw Twp 3	629	551	1186	78	53.04%	46.46%
Saginaw Twp 4	508	420	938	88	54.16%	44.78%
Saginaw Twp 5	856	842	1710	14	50.06%	49.24%
Saginaw Twp 6	940	822	1778	118	52.87%	46.23%
Saginaw Twp 7	982	936	1938	46	50.67%	48.30%
Saginaw Twp 8	553	503	1064	50	51.97%	47.27%
Saginaw Twp 9	900	679	1593	221	56.50%	42.62%
Saginaw Twp 10	734	895	1645	-161	44.62%	54.41%
Saginaw Twp 11	498	880	1393	-382	35.75%	63.17%
Saginaw Twp 12	668	630	1308	38	51.07%	48.17%
Spaulding Twp	455	631	1100	-176	41.36%	57.36%
Zilwaukee	402	458	866	-56	46.42%	52.89%
Zilwaukee Twp	23	25	49	-2	46.94%	51.02%
Total	17237	35347	53077	-18110	32.48%	66.60%
Tuscola County (part)
Arbela Twp	735	758	1520	-23	48.36%	49.87%
Denmark Twp	1130	496	1641	634	68.86%	30.23%
Gilford Twp	274	140	420	134	65.24%	33.33%
Millington Twp	1143	976	2143	167	53.34%	45.54%
Tuscola Twp	749	382	1138	367	65.82%	33.57%
Vassar	565	539	1117	26	50.58%	48.25%
Vassar Twp (part)	881	863	1767	18	49.86%	48.84%
Total	5477	4154	9746	1323	56.20%	42.62%
Total All	130421	206294	340099	-75873	38.35%	60.66%