Thursday, January 05, 2006

Special Election announced for Ingham County - February 21, March 14

From the Lansing State Journal.

Ingham County voters will to go to the polls for a special election to pick a state Senate replacement for Virg Bernero, who became mayor of Lansing on Sunday.

Gov. Jennifer Granholm on Tuesday called a special primary for Feb. 21 and a special general election for March 14.

She scheduled special elections for two House vacancies to coincide with the August primary and November general election.

Granholm just announced a special election for the state senate district in Ingham County. She also announced that special elections for two other vacancies (Phillips and Kehrl) in Pontiac and Monroe based house districts will coincide with the regular elections. All the vacancies were seats held by democrats. The Pontiac seat is solid democrat, and the Monroe seat is a toss-up.

Anything can happen in special elections due to low turnout. Paul Hackett nearly won an upset in a 60%+ GOP district with low turnout. Whoever shows up wins in cases like this. For that reason alone, I hope the GOP contests this seat and doesn't write it off. We need to take the fight on their home court, especially in special elections.

Four candidates have announced. One is rich leftist Gretchen Whitmer, who is a typical East Lansing style of democrat. She has millions and will try and buy this seat. Another democrat is Melissa Sue Robinson, formerly known as Charles Stralens. Robinson is a frequent candidate who runs in several elections.

On the GOP side, Attorney Vince Green and former Lansing City Councilwoman Geneva Smith are running. Green I've met before and is conservative. Former Rep. Paul DeWeese is his treasurer, so there is some backing there. I do not know anything about Smith.

At to the District itself, the big problem here is that some of the more friendly areas (Vevay, Mason, Stockbridge) in Ingham County are in Garcia's district due to poor redistricting planning. The district has a strong democrat lean, but it is more of an anti-Bush lean. Paul DeWeese had 46.64% and held Virg Bernero to 53.36% in a district Granholm ran ahead of John Kerry due to state workers and their anti-Engler attitude. In a special election, that could be a sleeper since low turnout is good for us here, just as it benefits democrats in Livingston County.

The 2004 results of the district.

Municipality Bush (Bush%), Kerry (Kerry%)
Alaiedon Twp 1088 (56.08%) 838 (43.20%)
Aurelius Twp 1222 (60.83%) 771 (38.38%)
Delhi Twp 6831 (52.25%) 6105 (46.40%)
E. Lansing 5119 (28.40%) 12647 (70.16%)
Ingham Twp 734 (60.66%) 463 (38.26%)
Lansing City 16101 (33.03%) 32102 (65.86%)
Lansing Twp 1707 (40.76%) 2436 (58.17%)
Leroy Twp 1103 (61.28%) 674 (37.44%)
Locke Twp 657 (63.97%) 361 (35.15%)
Meridian twp 9589 (43.25%) 12378 (55.83%)
Onondaga 768 (56.60%) 568 (41.86%)
Wheatfield 624 (62.09%) 375 (37.31%)
White Oak 378 (59.62%) 247 (38.96%)
Williamston 1065 (54.48%) 869 (44.45%)
WilliamstownTwp 1824 (56.56%) 1373 (42.57%)
Total 48810 (39.89%) 72207 (59.01%)


Anonymous said...

"....low turnout is good for us...". Ah, democracy in action! Why in the world would "we" want "them" to vote when "we" know what's best anyway. You blogged a mouthful there 'gander.

Dan said...

Low turnout in Livingston County is good for you. When Republicans stay home, it's good for you. When democrats stay home, it's good for us. Low turnout in East Lansing is good for us. High turnout in Livingston County is good for us.

It's not the most PC thing to say, but it's true, and I'm honest enough to say what most of the people are really thinking.

Anonymous said...

Not to throw cold water on your post but Republicans have no chance of beating Gretchen Whitmer. Don't expect SRCC to put any money in this considering the dog fights we will have later in the year. Plus, Granholm wouldn't have called for this special election in less they knew it was a safe bet.

That is why we are not seeing the House districts holding special election, the Monroe County seat is absolutely a toss-up and a special election there would probably make it a lean Republican seat. It would have been difficult to hold a special election in Pontiac for a House seat and not in Monroe (some how the media gave her a pass when allowing one of the three open seats to have a special election).

Just my .02

Dan said...

Grand Rapids GOP'er:

If this was a normal election, I'd agree 100%. Being a special election, I think we may have a 10-15% chance because of turnout flucutation. It's certainly Whitmer's to lose. It's a Hail Mary pass for us.

That said, I'd like to see Whitmer forced to spend some of her Blue Cross money against a good organized local-based grass roots effort. I hate seeing someone like Whitmer getting a free pass when there is no other elections in March.

I agree about the Monroe seat, and I expect that's why Granholm didn't call the house vacancies. I'd like to know why Granholm is forcing the people of Pontiac and Monroe to have no representation in the state house for a year? We all know the answer.

Anonymous said...

Well, you would be wrong about why the Governor decided not to hold a special election for the seat in Monroe. The chair of the Monroe County Board of Commissioners and the Monroe County Clerk petitioned the governor not to hold a special election because it would cost about $100,000 to hold, and the Commissioners had to dip into the reserve fund balance to fund their budget already.