Monday, March 30, 2009

Pete Hoekstra's in

It's official. Pete Hoekstra's running for governor, joining the long list of candidates.

The question with Hoekstra is how well is he known outside West Michigan? I think we'll be seeing a lot of him in this side of the state.

This is going to be an interesting primary. A lot of people have filed. With this many possible candidates and assuming their are no candidates withdrawing from the race, there are a few things to look for if you want to predict a winner.

1. Organization. The best organized campaign usually wins. It's the nuts and bolts of the campaign.

2. Ideology, geography, and split votes. If the organization is relatively equal, factors such as geography and ideology factor in. Go back to the 47th district back in 2002 for a geographic split, which along with organization, was a factor in Joe Hune's election to state rep.

3. Crossvotes. Is there a primary among the democrats, or can they crash ours (or vice versa)? Right now, it looks like there will be a primary there with Cherry and Dillon. Crossvotes were a factor when Joe Schwarz won in 2004.

I don't know who is favored right now. Mike Cox and Terri Land have a history of very well organized campaigns. Hoekstra has a major upset in a primary against Guy VanderJaght. Brooks, love him or hate him, has survived in Oakland County. All those things factor in here as well.

It'll be an interesting 2010. What I'd to see is a plan to help Michigan get out of its mess during the Granholm and Obama regimes.

No comments: