Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Internal Poll - Santorum up 5 in MI?? Last PPP Poll Santorum up 1, Last Mitchell Poll Romney up 1

Take a leaked internal poll from an anonymous source for what it is worth. I do not know how true this is.

From Buzzfeed

From the source:
Santorum- 33%
Romney- 28%
Gingrich- 12%
Paul- 6%

--------

I think the Ron Paul numbers are a little low there, but that could be due to me being in my 30's and a 2nd Amendment backer, knowing a lot of both 20 somethings and gun owners who will support him. I also do not expect either side to win by 5 pts. I might be wrong.

Recent polling overall moved from Mitt heavily to Santorum, heavily back to Mitt, and at the end slightly towards Santorum finishing about dead even. Low turnout I think favors Mitt because of the absentees. PPP has Santorum up one in today's poll, Mitchell has Romney up 1. That means this one should go to the wire.


Last area code numbers: (PPP). 17% Overall absentee, 83% overall election day estimates.

231 - Absentee 71-29 Romney, Election Day 43-33 Santorum
248 - Absentee 56-26 Romney, Election Day 43-29 Romney
269 - Absentee 44-37 Romney, Election Day 40-31 Santorum
313 - Absentee 45-27 Romney, Election Day 40-25 Santorum (Surprising with Grosse Pointe)
517 - Absentee 57-30 Romney, Election Day 46-40 Santorum
586 - Absentee 73-27 Romney, Election Day 53-32 Santorum
616 - Absentee 63-27 Romney, Election Day 51-26 Santorum
734 - Absentee 50-31 Romney, Election Day 31-30 Santorum (surprising)
810 - Absentee 67-24 Romney, Election Day 42-25 Santorum
906 - Absentee 100% Romney, Election Day 45-26-18 Santorum, Paul, Romney
989 - Absentee 46-27 Romney, Election Day 43-30 Romney (surprising)



I predicted yesterday Santorum taking the delegate win with Romney winning overall by 1 due to Oakland County results and the absentees. We'll see what happens.

No comments: