Sunday, February 19, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 79 (HD-79)

State House - District 79
Current Rep - Al Pscholka (R-Lincoln Township)

Candidates:
GOP - Al Pscholka (R-Stevensville)
Dem -  Jim Hahn (D-Stevensville)

Update 5-27-2012 - Turnout will be the difference in this district. I'm calling this almost safe. If we kept this in 08, we should keep it in 2012.

Update 8-30-2012 - Jim Hahn won the primary. 

Old District (79th)
Al Pscholka - 17,293
Mary Brown - 8,761

I'll call this district almost safe. I can't call it safe because it's a 22% black district with Benton Harbor and Benton Township. It also has the GOP strongholds of Berrien County. This district has not been competitive downticket. The closest it has been was 6500 votes in 2008, with Obama on the ticket. The close calls for state rep have not been here as they were in the 78th district next door. On the other hand, Obama did better here than he did next door. If a democrat drives up the Benton Harbor votes and gets the same thing downticket while getting just enough crossovers, he can win. It just hasn't been done. That's why this district is almost safe. There's still bad potential to get caught looking if you're not careful.

The old and new districts here are almost the same. Sodus Township is dropped to the 78th district. Other than that, it's a battle of strongholds. Bainbridge, Lincoln, Coloma, and Royalton Townships lead the way for the GOP. St Joe leans heavily Republican, but not quite the same margins as in Lincoln Twp. Benton Harbor and Benton Township lead the way for the dems. They are mostly black and it shows in the election results. McCain won everywhere except the Bentons (and lost Watervliet by 6). He still lost the district, which shows how strongly democrat Benton Harbor is. That number is not a misprint.

This one should stay ours, but don't get caught looking.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bainbridge Twp 926 519 1445 407 64.08% 35.92% 28.17%
Benton Harbor 94 4364 4458 -4270 2.11% 97.89% -95.78%
Benton Twp 1480 5108 6588 -3628 22.47% 77.53% -55.07%
Bridgman  625 555 1180 70 52.97% 47.03% 5.93%
Coloma  412 327 739 85 55.75% 44.25% 11.50%
Coloma Twp 1437 949 2386 488 60.23% 39.77% 20.45%
Hagar Twp 992 805 1797 187 55.20% 44.80% 10.41%
Lake Twp 943 715 1658 228 56.88% 43.12% 13.75%
Lincoln Twp 5112 3165 8277 1947 61.76% 38.24% 23.52%
Royalton Twp 1743 886 2629 857 66.30% 33.70% 32.60%
St Joseph 2331 2253 4584 78 50.85% 49.15% 1.70%
St Joseph Twp 3240 2975 6215 265 52.13% 47.87% 4.26%
Watervliet 332 339 671 -7 49.48% 50.52% -1.04%
Watervliet Twp 751 589 1340 162 56.04% 43.96% 12.09%



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Total 20418 23549 43967 -3131 46.44% 53.56% -7.12%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bainbridge Twp 1016 394 1410 622 72.06% 27.94% 44.11%
Benton Harbor 161 3600 3761 -3439 4.28% 95.72% -91.44%
Benton Twp 1739 4123 5862 -2384 29.67% 70.33% -40.67%
Bridgman  772 427 1199 345 64.39% 35.61% 28.77%
Coloma  444 308 752 136 59.04% 40.96% 18.09%
Coloma Twp 1573 829 2402 744 65.49% 34.51% 30.97%
Hagar Twp 1146 671 1817 475 63.07% 36.93% 26.14%
Lake Twp 1098 594 1692 504 64.89% 35.11% 29.79%
Lincoln Twp 5646 2474 8120 3172 69.53% 30.47% 39.06%
Royalton Twp 1717 661 2378 1056 72.20% 27.80% 44.41%
St Joseph 2630 1865 4495 765 58.51% 41.49% 17.02%
St Joseph Twp 3808 2326 6134 1482 62.08% 37.92% 24.16%
Watervliet 418 270 688 148 60.76% 39.24% 21.51%
Watervliet Twp 826 513 1339 313 61.69% 38.31% 23.38%



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Total 22994 19055 42049 3939 54.68% 45.32% 9.37%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bainbridge Twp 716 151 867 565 82.58% 17.42% 65.17%
Benton Harbor 95 1457 1552 -1362 6.12% 93.88% -87.76%
Benton Twp 1136 1908 3044 -772 37.32% 62.68% -25.36%
Bridgman  546 210 756 336 72.22% 27.78% 44.44%
Coloma  336 117 453 219 74.17% 25.83% 48.34%
Coloma Twp 1093 454 1547 639 70.65% 29.35% 41.31%
Hagar Twp 795 355 1150 440 69.13% 30.87% 38.26%
Lake Twp 766 244 1010 522 75.84% 24.16% 51.68%
Lincoln Twp 4289 1032 5321 3257 80.61% 19.39% 61.21%
Royalton Twp 1449 334 1783 1115 81.27% 18.73% 62.54%
St Joseph 1981 872 2853 1109 69.44% 30.56% 38.87%
St Joseph Twp 2822 1243 4065 1579 69.42% 30.58% 38.84%
Watervliet 222 124 346 98 64.16% 35.84% 28.32%
Watervliet Twp 583 189 772 394 75.52% 24.48% 51.04%



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Total 16829 8690 25519 8139 65.95% 34.05% 31.89%

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