Wednesday, February 15, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 75 (HD-75) and District 76 (HD-76)

State House - Districts 75 and 76
Current Rep - Brandon Dillon and Roy Schmidt (D-Grand Rapids)

Candidates:
HD-75
GOP - William Nathan Sneller (R-Grand Rapids)
DEM - Brandon Dillon and Andrew Garlick (D-Grand Rapids)

HD-76
GOP - Roy Schmidt (R?-Grand Rapids)
DEM - There will be one eventually.

Update 5-27-2012 - Famously or infamously, Roy Schmidt switched parties on filing day. We'll see what happens there for November.

Update 8-30-2012 -  Dillon wins the HD-75 primary. Schmidt defeated a write-in Republican Bing Goei in a close race for the 76th. Winnie Brinks is the democrat running against Schmidt. Too bad Goei didn't win the primary.

Old District (75th)
Brandon Dillon - 13,682
Bing Goei - 13,020

Old District (76th)
Roy Schmidt - 11,678
Mark Tonnemacher - 5,929

The Grand Rapids city districts were torn up. The population dropped slightly to put the entire city in two districts instead of two districts and another partial district. The two major districts were generally divided east/west. Now it's more of an inner/outer district. Historically, one district was safe democrat. One was Democrat in the 70's, later somewhat Republican, and now leans democrat. The partial had a republican part of GR.

The new districts are making the safe seat safer, and another seat competitive. Both seats went big for Obama, but McCain cratered so badly in Grand Rapids that it's really tough to use that number. Dave's Redistricting Averages are worse numbers to use however for the district.

Until I have a better call on this, I'm going to consider the 75th Safe D and the 76th slightly lean D for now. The 75th is about 76% Obama at 25% black and 25% Mexican. The 76th is about 57% Obama at 15% black and 6% Mexican. One of them is possible to win. The other isn't without major luck and a bad candidate on the other side.

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