Friday, February 10, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 70 (HD-70)

State House - District 70
Current Rep - Rick Outman (R-Belvidere Twp)

Candidates:
GOP - Rick Outman (R-Belvidere Twp)
Dem - Mike Huckleberry (D-Greenville)

Update 5-27-2012 - We have ourselves a rematch. Huck's stronger than most dems here, so I'm calling this a tossup. He was caught in the wave of 2010, but won the district in 2008. He also ran well in his area against Dave Camp, so this will be one of our tougher defenses.

Old District (70th)
Rick Outman - 12,932
Mike Huckleberry - 10,086

The old district covered all of Montcalm County and a portion of Ionia County. That changed with redistricting. The new district is still based in Montcalm County, but takes part of Gratiot County from the 93rd District instead.

The 2012 race here will likely be a rematch as Huckleberry is running again. While this seat usually has gone republican, Huckleberry won the district in 2008 before he was defeated as an incumbent. He also ran well in this area during his congressional runs against Dave Camp. This will likely be a tough defense. However, the difference between 2008 Huckleberry and 2010/2012 Huckleberry is the voting record. He still ran ahead of Obama, so he's a threat. Outman has to defend his record as well.

Gratiot County usually leans slightly to the right, but it flipped somewhat surprisingly in 08 (even with McCain quitting and announcing it like an idiot). However Alma is a college town, so it's not surprising that it flipped. About 1/4 of this new district's population is in Gratiot County so it could make a difference in the rematch. Paul Opsommer struggled in Gratiot County overall in 2006, although he recovered there in 2008 and 2010. Don't take it for granted.

The district leans our way without Huckleberry, and with Huckleberry running, I'm calling it a tossup because 2010 was a wave year. (So was 08, but Huckleberry wasn't crushed like the dems were in most rural areas)



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Montcalm County 13291 13208 26499 83 50.16% 49.84% 0.31%
Alma 1611 2282 3893 -671 41.38% 58.62% -17.24%
Bethany Twp 397 283 680 114 58.38% 41.62% 16.76%
Emerson Twp 244 224 468 20 52.14% 47.86% 4.27%
Pine River Twp 551 584 1135 -33 48.55% 51.45% -2.91%
Seville Twp 502 491 993 11 50.55% 49.45% 1.11%
St Louis 640 863 1503 -223 42.58% 57.42% -14.84%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 17236 17935 35171 -699 49.01% 50.99% -1.99%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Montcalm County 14968 11471 26439 3497 56.61% 43.39% 13.23%
Alma 1810 1792 3602 18 50.25% 49.75% 0.50%
Bethany Twp 414 246 660 168 62.73% 37.27% 25.45%
Emerson Twp 306 185 491 121 62.32% 37.68% 24.64%
Pine River Twp 697 486 1183 211 58.92% 41.08% 17.84%
Seville Twp 593 402 995 191 59.60% 40.40% 19.20%
St Louis 812 655 1467 157 55.35% 44.65% 10.70%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 19600 15237 34837 4363 56.26% 43.74% 12.52%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Montcalm County 9885 7553 17438 2332 56.69% 43.31% 13.37%
Alma

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bethany Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Emerson Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Pine River Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Seville Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
St Louis

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 9885 7553 17438 2332 56.69% 43.31% 13.37%

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