Friday, January 20, 2012

Brenda Lawrence running in MI-14

The primary in the 14th just got a major shake-up. I'm not surprised at this, but it's still big. I think Conyers switched districts because he wants no part of a one on one vs Lawrence.

Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence said today that she plans to run for Congress in a district that already features a race with two incumbent Congressmen.

She will formally announce her intentions on Feb. 1, Lawrence said, but she’s also been telling people in the district for months that she plans on running.

I happen to appreciate this comment by Lawrence a bit. That hits a little at Clarke (although he did represent Detroit's East Side) and hits a lot at Peters. I think Peters will be a non-factor outside of maybe West Bloomfield. He's just a yesman and a toady who carpetbagged. Clarke and Lawrence as far as I know don't have the same animosity towards them from whitey as Conyers does.

“It’s a district I live in and while that may not mean something to others, it does mean something to me,” Lawrence said.

Using Dave's redistricting website, the approximate numbers are 337,000 in Detroit, 309,000 in Oakland County, and 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit (Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods). The Detroit Part was 86% black and 97% for Obama. If they vote in a primary, we know which side it will be. Dems. Will they vote for Clarke? He's known more on the East Side, but what about West Side Detroiters. Southfield is right next door. City or
proximity. The 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit is more competitive. If there is local partisan primaries, some of them may vote there, although I think there will be crossovers because the Grosse Pointe state rep districts are now split. The Oakland County portion is 48% White and about 40% Black. It went 75% for Obama, while extremely high, significantly less than Detroit. Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Oak Park will probably vote heavily for her with geography, but will Pontiac further North? Pontiac is a different community than the other three areas (or at least much of Southfield and Oak Park). Will they be open to Clarke or even Peters.

This will be an interesting August in many districts, and this is going to be one of them. We have competitive primaries so far in the 5th, 6th, 13th, and 14th. There might be more. We'll find out for sure in May at the filing deadline.

No comments: