Who is running in Livingston County for 2014 partisan elections?

The filing deadline is in. I'll update this if data comes in late.

Before I get to the rest of ballot, there are no primaries for  Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Board of Education, the education boards of trustees/regents for MSU, UM, and Wayne State, or Supreme Court. These are decided in state conventions. Convention nominations are elected by state delegates. State delegates are elected at county conventions by precinct delegates. Preinct delegates are elected in the August primary. The filing deadline for those are May 6th and interested parties file at the County Clerk's office. In Livingston County, that's at the courthouse in downtown Howell.

For the offices:
Governor:
Rick Snyder (R - Superior Twp)
Mark Schauer (D - Battle Creek)

Anybody but Schauer. Gun grabbing, partial birth abortion, Granholm's taxes, Obamacare, and Cap and trade.

Senate:
Terri Lynn Land (R-Byron Township)
Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township)

We have an actual shot here and the pundits are finally starting to figure this out. I met Land in 2002. She was not supposed to be the nominee and ended up winning due to hard work on the campaign trail. Land will work hard and give us a chance.  As for Peters, that boy will do whatever Reid tells him to do.

Congress - 8th District (MI-08)
GOP - Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), and Tom McMillin  (R-Rochester Hills)
Dem - Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing)

This district leans slightly Republican because of Livingston County and North Oakland County. However, all of Ingham County is in the district, and anything with Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp isn't completely safe. Schertzing has won countywide in Ingham County, but how many people know who the treasurer is? It's an important position, but behind the scenes more than a prosecutor. In a 3 and 4 way primary, a lot of things can happen.

State Senate - 22nd District (SD-22)
GOP - Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)
Dem - Shari Pollesch (D-Hartland Township)

Redistricting did make this seat more difficult as it swaps the swing areas of Shiawassee County and slightly Republican parts of Ingham County for most of Western Washtenaw County. Shiawassee County voted for Obama twice, but it's also friendly territory for Joe Hune. About 2/3 of this district is still Livingston County, and the most democrat parts of Washtenaw stay with Rebekah Warren. This is still safe. Chelsea and Scio Township can not carry a district for Pollesch. Even McCain won this district, and Joe's not going to be outworked.


State Rep
42nd District (HD-42)
GOP - Nick Fiani (R-Genoa Twp), Rich Perlberg (R-Brighton Twp),  Dale Rogers (R-Putnam Twp), Lana Theis (R-Brighton Twp)
Dem - Timothy Johnson (D-Genoa Twp)

I'm not worried about the general here. Johnson already put his foot in his mouth with his guilty white leftist comments as well as his anti-2nd Amendment comments (guns for me, not for you).  I think even a certain recalled Hamburg Township official would win this district without much of a problem. That may be a little cocky, but I'm usually cautious in my predictions. If I'm Nick, Rich, Dale, or Lana, I'd keep the dem talking. Beyond all of that, Johnson is a Wayne County guy who just moved here in 2012. While we're open to transplants including Wayne County transplants (like most of my family), many of us, including the transplants, don't want people to turn our county into the county the transplants left, especially Wayne County. People left Wayne County for a reason.

The main battle will be in the primary. The primary will be interesting. All bring their own backgrounds to the election. Nick Fiani is the president of the Brighton School Board. Rich Perlberg was the publisher for the local paper for years. Dale Rogers is a teacher. Lana Theis is Brighton Township treasurer and past GOP Chair. 


47th District (HD-47)
GOP - Phil Campbell (R-Howell), Wendy Day (R-Marion Twp), Harold Melton (R-Howell Twp), Ted Ring (R-Hartland Twp), Dr Hank Vaupel (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Jordan Genso (D-Marion Twp)

This is on paper one of the five safest districts in the state. The biggest problem for Jordan Genso is that there are only 3 places in this district that even voted for Carl Levin (who won nearly 2-1 statewide) against a sacrificial lamb candidate. Howell, Handy Twp, and Unadilla Twp. Stabenow in 2012 only won Howell against a weak nominee (due to lazy campaign). With a five way primary however, the potential is there for a disaster if (and a big if) a candidate emerges heavily wounded compounded with other candidate supporters skipping the race. That's Genso's ghost of a chance. I don't expect Jordan to beat himself, unlike Johnson who frankly already has beaten himself. This is a 60%+ district in almost all years, so when I mean ghost of a chance, I'm referring to Scott Brown level.

The primary will be big here. Phil Campbell is Mayor of Howell, Wendy Day is a tea party activist and former Howell School Board member. Harold Melton is an activist and retired construction worker. Ted Ring is a former teacher and business owner. Dr Hank Vaupel is a veterinarian and Handy Twp Supervisor.

County Commissioner
Right now, there are the following contests. In Livingston County, it takes a disaster for a democrat to win any partisan contest. That does not mean that Republicans don't need to work. Lazy candidates contribute to a disaster. If our candidates are smart, work hard, and do not beat themselves, they will win. Some areas are safer than others. Our job is to not beat ourselves and to continue to do good work. The dems are bragging about finding 9 people to put $100 in (or 20 signatures) to run for the commissioner spots. Congratulations. They did what anybody should be able to do. That doesn't mean they have good candidates. It means they have names on the ballot. That's it.

District 1 (City of Brighton, most of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Kate Lawrence (R-Brighton)
Dem - Bruce Schneider (D-Brighton Twp)
This is a rematch. Lawrence won with 67% in 2012. The only way a dem wins here is by a massive win in the City of Brighton. Brighton Twp doesn't vote for dems, and Lawrence was Mayor of Brighton City. She's a matchup nightmare for any dem.

District 2 (Deefield, Oceola, small part of Hartland)
GOP - Bill Green (R-Deerfield Twp)
Dem - Jeanette DiFlorio (D-?)
This is also a rematch. Green won with 65% in 2012.  Deefield and Oceola don't vote for dems.

District 3 (Tyrone, most of Hartland)
GOP - Dave Domas (R-Tyrone Twp)
Dem - Ronda Trouse (D-?)

Tyrone's moved a bit to the right in the past 20 years. Stabenow won it years ago (96?), but lost it bad to Hoekstra who was a bad candidate (fundraising and inactivity). Levin lost it to Hoogendyk and he's done the best of any dem in the county since Frank Kelley (who was the last dem to win the county).  Hartland doesn't vote for dems.  


District 4 (Conway, Handy, Iosco, Unadilla, part of Putnam)
GOP - Ron Van Houten (R-Iosco Twp) Doug Helzerman (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Donald Pushies (D-Conway Twp)

This district has a large number of independents. Conway's a 60%+ area at the top of the ticket, but had a dem township supervisor not all that long ago. Handy Twp likes their locals and while it's fairly strongly Republican, it fluctuates heavily based on candidate quality. Hune got 80% there before, but Stabenow also got 46% against Hoekstra, 6% ahead of Obama. Iosco is a more conservative version of Handy Twp in voting habits unless the GOP'er has strong ties to Handy Twp.  Unadilla will still vote for some dems, although it's now Republican at the top of the ticket. The part of Putnam in the district leans democrat.  Romney did very well in the district, but Hoekstra barely won it. The dems have what is likely an MEA connected candidate here. There's a couple of names that would really concern me here, but they didn't run. I don't see the MEA selling here, but we have to take this race seriously. The SW part of ths district sometimes goes dem, but they prefer their locals there. Pushies is 20 miles from there.



District 5 (Cohoctah, Howell, Howell Twp)
GOP - Don Parker (R-Howell)
Dem - Mike Tipton (D-Howell Twp)

Mike "34%" Tipton wants a rematch. Tipton couldn't crack 35% in a special election where there were no straight ticket voters hurting him. We were worried about Tipton last time since we were somewhat blind to his chances in a special election. We're not blind now. This time, we know what he's about. This time, it's a regular off year election. He's got a big mouth and will throw a lot of bombs, and we'll be ready for him. His big city style doesn't work in Livingston County.

District 6 (Marion Twp, most of Putnam Twp, small part of  Hamburg)
GOP - Steve Williams (R-Marion Twp), Steven Hart (R-Marion Twp?)
Dem - Lesa Doa (D-Marion Twp)


Steve Williams has a primary against Steven Hart. I don't know anything about Hart except that I think he may be a Pinckney cop. Interesting primary. Hopefully it doesn't get nasty.

Lesa Doa is Jordan Genso's wife. Genso is running in the 47th. This district could get interesting depending on matchups but it's a major geographic mismatch for Doa. Genso's geographic base is Hartland. For the 47th, that's not a big deal as Hartland's in the district (Joe Hune lives in Hamburg, but he's a Fowlerville guy)  Here, Hartland is not in the district, so Genso's base can't help her. I went to school with one of the Doas. Their base would be in the Brighton area, particularly the Brighton part of Genoa Township. Why is that important? The only way any democrat wins in Livingston County is with a large number of crossover voters. Steve Williams doesn't make a lot of mistakes or put his foot in his mouth. 15-20 years from now in an open seat matchup, this matchup would concern me much more than it does now if Jordan and Lesa stay in Marion Twp. The southwestern part of the county is quite independent and more apt to split their ticket, but it's also very geographic provincial. They'll vote for Hune/Donahue. This isn't a completely safe district due to Putnam's independent streak, but Steve Williams is a good candidate here.

District 7 (Genoa Twp)
GOP - Carol Griffith (R-Genoa Twp)
Dem - Jim Delcamp (D-Genoa Twp)

Safe R. Genoa Township doesn't vote democrat, unless it's a closet dem running as a Republican (not referring to Carol). I'll safe that story for another day. Carol's a very good commissioner and shouldn't have any troubles. This is one of the three most Republican district's in the county. Delcamp's run several times for office and hasn't been successful.

District 8 (most of Hamburg, small part of Green Oak)
GOP - Dennis Dolan (R-Hamburg)
Dem - Jim Katakowski (D-Hamburg)

This is a rematch. Dolan won last time with 58%, basically running with the top of the ticket. This could be a tough district if we have a bad matchup, but I'm not worried about a rematch here as long as we are prepared. We will be.

District 9 (Most of Green Oak, part of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Gary Childs (R-Green Oak)
Dem - Barry McBride (D-Green Oak)

Green Oak's heavily independent, but has moved our way some since the 70's. McBride ran a few years back against Jack LaBelle. This is the first time Childs faced a dem, although he beat Jack LaBelle which shows a lot of strength in his own right.

Conway Twp Treasurer:
GOP - Debbie Grubb (R-Conway Twp)
Dem - None that I know of. (Called Clerk's office earlier today)

Conway's heavily independent but conservative.

When I say "Safe R", it means Safe R barring a disaster. It doesn't not mean that we should get arrogant and do nothing but have a name out on the ballot. That's an easy way to lose. We have the facts on our side. We have a good track record in this county. We don't want to turn into Wayne County.

The field is set. It's time to get to work.  

A good start, but the one that counts is August

Yesterday was the special primary election for County Commissioner district 5 which covers Howell, Howell Township, and Cohoctah Township. It was uncontested race on both sides, so we already knew the winners. Don Parker and Mike Tipton were unopposed. While turnout was low, the percentages were promising going into the August campaign.


http://livingstonlive.org/lcit/clerk/may2013/5StatementofVotesCastReportComm.pdf

Overall

2013 Primary	Parker	Tipton	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Cohoctah Twp	66	37	105	29	62.86%	35.24%
Howell	173	98	274	75	63.14%	35.77%
Howell Twp	178	122	303	56	58.75%	40.26%
				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	417	257	682	160	61.14%	37.68%

This is a good start. It is nothing more than a good start and something to build on with my election analysis for August. The one that counts is August. We'll be ready. We won't get caught looking. That's a promise.

Our main opponent as Republicans is complacency. Just because districts usually vote Republican does not mean that will always be the case. We do not want the democrats to gain any foothold here in Livingston County in their push to turn every county into a Wayne County with all the Ed McNamaras, Mike Duggans, Kwame Kilpatricks, Jennifer Granholms, Monica Conyerses, and Bob Ficanos that go with it.

Our commissioners overall do a good job. Instead of being on Charlie LeDuff's news show, they balance the budget every year. They have the highest bond rating. Livingston County is a safe community. Livingston County grows while Wayne County shrinks. Livingston County Republicans planned ahead and handles the economic crash well. Other communities get emergency financial managers.

We need to remember that Livingston County being the bright spot in SE Michigan is no accident. It's partly due to good leadership, and that is the leadership in this county by Livingston County Republicans. Don Parker is part of that leadership from his previous (and current) tenure as a County Commissioner. We need to make sure Don Parker wins in August and we need to Keep Livingston County Republican.

Don Parker and Mike Tipton file for Commissioner vacancy

We'll have a May/August special election to fill the position by Jay Drick's promotion to magistrate.

From the Argus:

The race to fill an unexpired Livingston County Commission term is set.
Republican Don Parker, who was recently appointed to the seat, and Democrat Michael Tipton, a newly-elected Howell Township trustee, were the only candidates to filed Tuesday for the District 5 commission seat.

That means we probably won't have a real contest in the primary barring an unexpectedly strong write-in. There will be a contested special general election in August. We're going to need to be ready for that as Tipton did win his last race (unopposed). Parker's been there before, so he's not a stranger to elections. Parker was my commissioner when I lived in Howell and I thought he did a good job there.

The Special Primary is MAY 7th. The Special General is AUGUST 6th. Throw out most of the conventional rules with special elections. They are always about turnout. We can not beat ourselves this August.

Interesting blurb on the open County Commissioner seat

As Jay Drick resigned to become magistrate, a county commissioner district is now open.

I saw this on WHMI.com and it was quite interesting.

1/29/13- Interviews for an interim commissioner were held at last night’s meeting for the Livingston County Board of Commissioners. The seat became vacant when Jay Drick stepped down from his District 5 position to accept an appointment as magistrate. Candidates were asked a number of questions that educated the board on their intent as a commissioner, their experience and skills, and their involvement in the community they wish to serve.Candidates for the seat include Pastor Tom Huff, educator Mike Brennan, Howell Township Trustee Michael Tipton, and Howell attorney and former commissioner Don Parker. Parker (pictured on the left) served on the board from 2002 to 2010. The candidates will be reviewed by the board and voted on at Monday, February 4th’s scheduled meeting. (SO)

We'll have a special election for this spot. About the names mentioned.

Don Parker (R) - He was the commissioner here before Jay Drick took office in 2010. He wants his spot back now that it's open. I personally thought overall he was a good commissioner during the time I lived in Howell.

Mike Brennan (L) - He's a  Libertarian and runs a tutoring program.

Tom Huff (?) - Pastor of Grace Lutheran Church. I don't know much beyond that as I'm not Lutheran. He does have some name recognition in the area being a pastor. His wife donated to Shanda Willis (D) for state house, Bill Rogers opponent.

Mike Tipton (D) - I'm a little surprised that Mike Tipton's angling for a promotion to a temporary gig as commissioner literally right after he takes office at Howell Township. Tipton was unopposed for Howell Township trustee and won. Maybe this is due to making sure there is at least more than one interview. It'll be interesting if he runs for the special election. He doesn't have to give up his township spot to run, but would have to give it up if he won. Don't laugh when I say "if he won". He won once already in a shutout. I will however make sure that an R files for this seat this time.

One of these four will be appointed barring a surprise. There will also be a special election primary and general for the remainder of the term. We'll see who files likely in February.

Areas to watch in Michigan for Election Day Results

Who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. Here's the current score. 0-0. All of the state level seats are up for contest, except some trustee and judicial seats.

We're playing offense on the state house a mix of offense and defense on the state senate, as well as the statewide and congressional seats. All of the areas are important, but there are a few counties to keep an eye on for the seats in play.

1. Parts of the UP, particularly Chippewa, Mackinac, Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, and Iron Counties. Those are competitive counties, but three seats, maybe four or five if we're super lucky, are in play up there. Dan Benishek in MI-01, Tom Casperson for State Senate in the 38th district, and possibly three state rep seats up there, although I think we have a good chance at one of them. Iron County leans slightly democrat, but Benishek is from there. Chippewa and Mackinac slightly Republican, but McDowell's from there. The triangle of Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta counties swing the UP, and will be the biggest factor in who wins this congressional district. I think Beniskek wins this seat narrowly. 49-47-5 for 3rd parties.

2. Kent County. We have a tough defense for state senate here and a darkhorse defense for Ehlers seat. Some of the old time Kent County establishment Republicans are often "different" and are much more liberal (outside the life issue) than the average population. It's not an accident than Kent County local government has been one of the five most anti-gun counties in the state. The establishment there is rather hostile to small l libertarianism. That is making it more difficult than the past for this defense. I think this year though was the right year for a principled libertarian-conservative like Justin Amash. He's getting a battle in the general, although his convincing primary win sent a strong message to the establishment there. The people are in charge, not the self-proclaimed elite. I think Amash wins by 10-15% (my gut feeling, no poll evidence). It's not Ehlers numbers, but it'll be in line with an average top of the ticket (Snyder should do better here - 25% win there since he'll get the Ehlers type votes as well as conservatives because of Virg). I think 08's an aberration. I do think Amash does better in Barry and Ionia County though, than Kent County. We need a 60% win though for Johnson and Schuette.

3. Jackson County. Jackson County is what I'd classify as conservative independent. It's important statewide. It's populist, socially conservative, and distrustful of both big government and big business. It has both democrat strongholds (City of Jackson) and republican strongholds (Spring Arbor), but even in those strongholds, there's a lot of independents. As Jackson County goes, usually so does the 7th Congressional district. Jackson voted against the incumbent in 2006 primary and in 2008. Can Walberg win back Jackson County? If he does, he'll likely win. If not, Schauer will survive. There's also two key state rep districts based in Jackson County. Those will be key if the GOP is taking back the house. 55%+ would be real good.

4. Monroe County. It's a swing County that voted for Gore, Posthumus, Bush, Granholm, and Obama. Dingell's won there with big margins as well. If Dr Rob Steele (best candidate in a long time) is going to upset Dingell, he'll need to get big numbers in this part of the district, probably close to 60%. There's also two potentially competitive state rep districts here too. It's a must win county statewide. 53% would be real good.

5. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Waterford, Royal Oak, Clawson. Those are all key in Oakland County. If Royal Oak and West Bloomfield are close (I expect them to stay dem, but to what degree), we could be looking at blowouts and you can say an early congratulations to Congressman Rocky, and one if not two new GOP state reps. If Farmington Hills and Clawson is close (if they're going GOP, Rocky wins), it could be a long night with potential recounts, but promising results for Rocky (he'll need big help from Troy then). If Waterford is more populist and close, but has trended GOP lately outside of the 06/08 disasters. I'd like to see a win in Farmington Hills, 46%+ in West Bloomfield, 54%+ in Waterford, 46%+ in Royal Oak, and a win in Clawson. I think any of those will assure a pickup.

6. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, St Clair Shores. Those are three of the key areas in Macomb County. Those will determine who wins Macomb County overall, and in Clinton Twp's case, probably who'll take the state. There's three, maybe four if lucky, competitive state rep districts there. There's a fifth competitive seat in North Macomb that was lost in the 2008 clustermuck (Despite McCain winning the district). That one should be ours. I'd like to see 53%+ in S. Heights, and a win of any margin in Clinton Township and St Clair Shores

7. Lake Michigan Coast - Can we stop the 06/08 bleeding there. If so, bye Dan Scripps. Those should be 54%+ GOP counties from Oceana up to Leelanau. Benzie's the toughest.

8. Thumb, especially Tuscola and Huron Counties - This conservative populist area is extremely independent and loyal to no party. Even some 60% GOP areas at the top of the ticket will ticket split. Sanillac County's rep should flip with locally popular Espinoza termed out. Mike Green is the best candidate for the state senate district. He'll have to rack up big numbers in the thumb to counter Bay County, home of the populist socially moderate democrats. Green (best) can exceed Mayes (good) on the gun issue, and he's also carried a union card. This may be a pickup. We may take Terry Brown's seat as well, although that won't be easy. Like the sunrise coast and the UP, the top of the ticket doesn't tell the story here.

9. Western/Southernmost Wayne County. Two state senate seats and three state rep seats are up for grabs. Keep an eye on Canton Twp (Swings), Van Buren Twp (Dem leaning), Plymouth (city swings, Twp GOP), Northville, Wayne (dem, but by how much), Westland (dem, by how much), Garden City (dem, by how much) Livonia (slight GOP lean), Trenton (slight dem), Huron Twp (swing) and Gibraltar (slight dem). If any of those "dem by how much" areas are close or slight dem areas flipping, there will be some pickups. I'd like to see 54%+ in Canton, any win in Van Buren Twp, 60%+ in Plymouth Twp, 52%+ in Plymouth City, 60%+ in Northville, 42%+ in Wayne, 43%+ in Westland, 48%+ in Garden City, 55%+ in Livonia, any win in Trenton, 52%+ in Huron Twp, and any win in Gibralter.

10. Sunrise Coast - There's a string of swing counties from Presque Isle and Alpena down the Lake Huron Coast and over to the Saginaw Bay/West Branch area. Clare and Roscommon Counties aren't part of this area geographically, but are attached to the state rep districts here and are similar in politics. Populist. We have a tough defense (Tim Moore's open seat) and a longshot (due to the Sheltrown name) pickup opportunity here, along with the Alpena based open seat that's been close but democrat for several years. There's a darkhorse defense for state senate as well that I'm not ready to put in the safe column yet.

11. Isabella County. Probably on paper, our toughest state rep defense. Mt Pleasant is soldly dem, and the surrounding area is marginally republican. Any win in Isabella County is a positive. Rural Midland gives us a small cushion to work with for the state rep district.

12. Rural Washtenaw County. Implications for Tim Walberg, Dr Rob Steele, and an open state rep seat which is a tough offense. The swing townships in Walberg's district are Northfield, Manchester, Saline (city), Sylvan, and Dexter. Scio is a democrat stronghold, and Salem a Republican one. If the swing areas go our way along with big numbers in Manchester (or losses cut in Scio Twp), we have a shot at picking up the Byrnes seat, along with a sure thing with the Walberg seat as this is his weaker area.

13. Eaton County - Very difficult to read. Blue steak in 02, 06, and 08, but a red streak in 2004. A lot of state workers live here, although it's much more conservative socially than Ingham County next door. However, it's got a strong labor streak. The state rep district is a potentially tough defense, and Walberg's economic libertarianism didn't sell here twice, although his social views are more of a positive here outside of maybe Delta Township. This will be interesting to watch.

14. Van Buren County - Classic Swing County with state rep, state senate, and statewide implications. Must win for all of them.

15. Saginaw, Bay, Clinton, St Clair, Counties. If democrats lose Saginaw and Bay Counties (Dem lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts. If the GOP loses Clinton and St Clair Counties (GOP lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts.

Locally, Hamburg Township, City of Howell, Green Oak Township, Putnam Township, City of Brighton. If the democrats want to take any commissioner or state rep seats, they'll have to win all of those areas and win them big (better than 06 or 08). Not this year. If Cindy Denby keeps it even, let alone a win, in Howell City, Putnam Township, or Hamburg Township (marginal areas), it's over. Post won't break 40% in the Fowlerville or Hartland areas. $30,000+ down the drain for Post. Same goes for Tianen in Putnam Twp who won't come close in Marion Township. I've only seen one McBride sign in Green Oak at the home of democrat activists. Jack LaBelle doesn't campaign much, but people have voted for him for years, and he gets a lot of crossover and independent votes, which is important in marginal Green Oak. I haven't seen anything in the Hamburg commissioner district, and that's the least Republican. Kelly Raskauskas is running an aggressive race, but even in the Obama year, that was a 55% GOP district (62%+ in 04) due to most of Genoa Township in that district. I think this will be Irene Cahill v Bill Rogers 2.0 (from 2002) in results. As someone who has lived most of his life in that district, I called that race a pipedream in May. I still think it is.

Countywide, I'll be quite unhappy if Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson don't break 63%. Around that number is a magic number for statewide wins. I'd like to see Denby and both of the Rogers brothers to break 65%, and I expect a clean sweep of the commissioner seats. I thought two districts were winnable for the dems this year, but their strongest candidates are in two of the stronger GOP districts. Morris is probably the strongest as a candidate (probably most electable of the bunch), but his district is one of the two most GOP. Raskauskas is the 2nd strongest (Best organized, but not moderate enough). If either ran in Hamburg, I'd be concerned. Still, I wouldn't grade their electability in the range of the late Jake Donahue (who won), Robert Reddinger (who almost won in a conservative area), or even in Matt Evans range (ran ahead of the top of the ticket). Garry Post concerned me with his money. A moderate like Matt Evans or most of all, Robert Reddinger with $40,000 to spend and Raskauskas's organizational ability wouldn't concern me. It would scare me, especially if they kept Judy Daubenmeier in check.

Countywide, 63% is the magic number to watch for the statewide seats. We'll be in good shape to win if that's the number.

The Livingston County Commissioner seats

The Argus has an opinion piece story about the challenges in Livingston County. They think it is a big deal that they got people to put their names on the ballot for county commissioner.

From the Argus

By placing at least seven candidates on the ballot, Livingston County Democrats are bringing rare competition to elections for the Livingston County Board of Commissioners.
...
Winning an election in Livingston County as a Democrat is a daunting task. Party faithful like to suggest that the county's ideological makeup is shifting, but that's an argument that's been made — without much apparent accuracy — for several decades.

At the top of the ticket, the low mark for the GOP since 2000 is 56% The high mark is 62-63% Levin came closest to winning countywide in 2008, and the last two to do so were Frank Kelley and Richard Austin.

Currently, there's two democrats holding partisan elected office in the county. Putnam and Unadilla Township trustee positions.

If Democrats want a chance in the county commissioner races, they need to do more than criticize the low tax rate, which is a source of pride for the county Republican Party. Livingston County is not the place where elections are won by promising higher taxes.

Judy Daubenmier, chairwoman of the Livingston County Democrats, has criticized the incumbents for lacking "any sort of vision for moving our county forward."

How about leaving us alone? Low taxes, balanced budgets, and the basics. We aren't Ann Arbor, and don't want to be Ann Arbor. This county is still the fastest growing in the area, and part of that is people moving away from democrat paradises like Wayne County. Democrats, including white "progressive" democrats destroyed Detroit, are destroying Michigan, and want to take Livingston County down with it.

That seems to be the Republican Party viewpoint as expressed by county GOP Chairman Mike Murphy, the county's undersheriff.

"It's conservative Republican values that have gotten us where we're at," Murphy said in a story published Wednesday in this newspaper.

Further, Murphy said the Democratic candidates "don't stand a chance" in November. Even if he's right, it will be good for the county if their campaigns help elevate the county's business in the minds of voters.

I agree with Murph that it is conservative republican values that got the county where it is at, and that puts us in better shape than the other nearby counties. I do disagree that the dems don't stand a chance. All campaigns are based on matchups, and they do have a chance. I don't think any Ann Arbor liberals like Judy Daubenmier have a chance, but dems have won in the 90's.

If the democrats want to win Livingston County, they have an example. Jake Donohue. Donohue was the last county comissioner seat that was won by the dems. They can't run some so called "progressive" type which flourishes in Ann Arbor and started the major decline in Detroit. "Progressives" destroyed Detroit, and are destroying Michigan and the country, and we all know it. Farming democrats or Jim Barcia democrats are their best chance to win in most of the county.

Unfortunately, some townships in the county have been reprecincted since 2002 which makes things very difficult to compare the districts. The 2008 or 2006 numbers are good "low end" numbers for the districts. In order for a democrat to win, it would take an improvement over their high water marks. That usually happens in Unadilla and Putnam Townships which have locally supported democrats for years, and has happened in Hamburg, not surprisingly in 2008. It might have happened in Green Oak as well, by a moderate democrat Matt Evans in his runs. Evans isn't running this time.

These are estimates of the 2008 low ball numbers for the GOP in this district (Absentees were counted differently). Add about 7-9% to the GOP for the 2004 numbers.

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 -
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III
08 - GOP 58.16%, 39.77%

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

08 - GOP 59.24%, 39.20%

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

08 - GOP 52.85%, 44.95%

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

08 - GOP 53.99%, 44.30%

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

08 - GOP 55.29%, 43.38%

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

08 - GOP 51.25%, 47.34%

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

08 - GOP 54.47%, 43.71%

I think the landscape in MOST of the county is more favorable to us than 2008, although Hamburg is still Hamburg. For that reason alone, I think the 8th is going to be our toughest defense due to self inflicted wounds. After that, I'd say probably the 9th and much of that depends on Jack's health. Possibly the 6th is one to watch depending on the type of candidate Tianen is. The right type of campaign there could resonate. Over in the 5th, the City of Howell is by far the most liberal part of the county, especially in its establishment (more so establishment than residents), but it would take one incredible balancing act for a dem to win there, appealing to the country club lib set, as well as the farm independents. The 7th is a pipe dream for a recent Massachusetts transplanted democrat. The City of Brighton swings (More MEA, but establishment is more business oriented), and will probably swing back to the right with the national fiscal liberalism. Even if it doesn't, there's too much Genoa Township for the dems to have much of a chance. They went for this in 02, caught us offguard until late, and couldn't break 40% and lost the whole area. I spend 24 years there as a primary residence, so I know that area very well. The rest of the seats are slim to none chances for the dems.

I'll never say there's no chance, but I'll be real surprised to see the dems pick one off, especially if their views are anything like Obama, Daubenmier, Granholm, and the like. I don't see a Jake Donohue in this crowd.

But our county party needs to pretend we're down 10% in our attitudes with these campaigns. When that stops happened, then we lose.

Filing Deadline coming up, preview of candidates.

We're less than a week away from the filing deadline for the August Primary. Some of the races are starting to come together here. I'm keeping a close eye on the filings.

So far we have a contested race for state senate, a contest for state rep, and three contests for the County Commissioner race.

For the State Senate Race in the 22nd District, we have a primary between Joe Hune (Fowlerville area) and Paul Rogers (City of Howell), with the winner facing Chuck Fellows of Green Oak. Joe did a good job in the state house holding the line on budget gimmicks and taxes. Chuck write a lot of letters to the editor supporting his party. 

For State Rep in the 47th District, incumbent Cindy Denby will likely be facing Garry Post. As recently as the 2006 election, Post had an Ann Arbor mailing address, although he had a Brighton one in the 2004 election cycle.

I don't know much about his views, but in North Carolina he was co-chair of the "Triangle Stonewall Democrats" which works to elect democrats who support gay rights. He supported "Coalition for a Fair Michigan" in 2004, a gay rights PAC, and supported the Matt Millen of Governors Jennifer Granholm and Mary Andersson in 2006, along with several donations to County Party. Is this guy more than a one issue supporter? I saw a lot of generics on his website, but no specifics.

On the County Level, we have three contests for county commissioner

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5

Here we have a primary between Tyrone Twp incumbent Dave Domas and Hartland Township's Charlie Aberasturi. Aberasturi ran for State Rep in the 08 primary and has been on Hartland School Board, which seems to do one thing better than many others in the county, stay out of the news. Domas has been a long time county commissioner and has done a good job there. The winner in the primary will fave Dane Morris, a democrat. I don't know anything about Morris.

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1

Here, we have a three way primary for an open seat between Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Ann Lathrop. I've known both Sue and Jay for years and think highly of both of them. Sue has my support in a case of vote for Sue, not against the others. I don't know anything about Lathrop.

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3

Here we have a general election battle. Dennis Dolan, an incumbent is running against Amir Baghdadchi, who I think is a UM guy, but that's all I know about him. 

There's still six days before the deadline, but there isn't a lot of time left before we see for a fact who is in and who is out.

Sue Dolato running to replace Parker on County Commission

I got an email from Sue Dolato announcing her run for county commission. Sue's running for the 5th District which is opening up from Parker not running for re-election. The district covers all of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, and precinct one in Howell Township. It is one of the more potentially competitive districts in the county and can not be taken for granted. This was at one time my district.

I don't know if someone else is running, but Sue has my support. I've known Sue for years from her time as a legislative aide and other campaigns. I've worked with her in different capacities. She knows what she's doing, is nobody's yesman, and would bring an independent streak to the board. At the same time, Sue will work well with the current members on the board.

Don Parker not running for re-election as county commissioner

There's a new opening on the Livingston County Board of Commissioners. Don Parker is not running for re-election

Don Parker has announced he will not be running for re-election to the Livingston County Board of Commissioners.
Parker currently serves as vice chairman of the nine-member board. His district covers the city of Howell, a portion of Howell Township and all of Cohoctah and Conway townships.
The 34-year-old Howell resident said he had an “internal feeling” that this was the right time to step aside.
“The time has come to step aside and make room for someone else,” he said.
Parker served on the Howell City Council in 2002 when he was appointed to the county board. He served several months and was then elected to two-year terms in 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008.

I thought Parker did a good job on the county board and wish him well in the future.

This district covers all of Conway and Cohoctah townships, precinct 1 in Howell Township, and all of the City of Howell. Parker's had some tough races in the past in the primary, but has escaped general election battles.

All of the commissioner seats are currently held by Republicans. The last democrat to hold a seat was Jake Donohue down in a district that covered Putnam and Unadilla townships.

• District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Maggie Jones
• District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Jim Mantey
• District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Dave Domas
• District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Ronald Van Houten
• District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Don Parker
• District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12. - Steve Williams
• District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Carol Griffith
• District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Dennis Dolan
• District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Jack LaBelle

While Livingston County is at the top of the ticket about 56% GOP in a bad year and 63% GOP in a good year, not all of the county commissioner districts fit that mold. Some parts are more locally democrat than national democrat, especially in Putnam and Unadilla Townships which have a democrat on their boards.

Parker's district may be competitive depending on candidates. Howell is probably the most socially liberal part of the county. I kid you not. At least when it comes to the political class. The City of Howell was McCain's worst showing in the county in 2008, most of which was due to the precinct with the apartments and the trailer park, along with part of downtown. He ran 10% behind Bush overall in the city. The dems haven't recently run an opponent against Parker, so there's nothing to test on that level.

Parker's district in 08 was 52.85% for McCain and 44.95% for Obama. It wasn't close in 2000 or 2004. It should stay ours, but it can not be taken for granted.

I don't know who's going to run for this spot, although I have an idea who might. Stay tuned.

County Commission: Concerned Taxpayers Group PAC endorses James Mantey and Ronald Van Houten

I just got this in the email box from Bill. I heard talk about interviews upcoming in a couple of primary contests, but I forgot about it completely. I wasn't on the panel here, but I trust the judgment of the Concerned Taxpayers Group and their PAC panels. This is the first County Commissioners race they are involved with. I hope it is not the last race either as I'd like to see the mission expand from its school board origins (enhancement millage).

I don't normally post press releases, but I make an exception for the Concerned Taxpayers Group PAC as I am one of the founders of that organization. I stepped down due to time constraints awhile back, and the position I had there was left in good hands. I can't ask for anything better.

The email:

CONCERNED TAXPAYERS GROUP, PAC, OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY

For Immediate Release - July 1, 2008
Contact: William Johnston (phone number removed)
Howell, Michigan

TAXPAYERS PAC PICK MANTEY AND VAN HOUTEN

The Concerned Taxpayers Group, PAC, endorses James Mantey, District 2 and Ronald Van Houten, District 4 for the Livingston County Commissioners race on the August 5th ballot. Both candidates are running in the Republican Party primary. Ronald Van Houten is in District 4, which includes all of Handy Township, Iosco Township, Unadilla Township, Precinct 1 of Marion Township and Precinct 3 of Howell Township. James Mantey is in District 2, which includes Precinct 2 of Howell Township, Precinct 3 and 11 of Genoa Township and all of Deerfield and Oceola Townships.

This evening a panel of Livingston County citizens interviewed four candidates from Districts 2 and 4. The interviewing process is done as a public service to the citizens of Livingston County. The voters of Livingston County should have as much knowledge as possible about which candidates will control taxes and excessive government growth.

Both candidates have the desire, the knowledge and experience to guide Livingston County through the difficult economic times of the present and the future. Livingston County is being hit by the declining economy of the state, collapsing real estate values and increased operating costs. The growth of Livingston County revenue has slowed and with no signs of improving in future years.

Paid for by the CONCERNED TAXPAYERS GROUP, PAC, of LIVINGSTON COUNTY with regulated funds
(Address removed)