Updates (Mackinac, 2012, other things)

I've been caught up in a few things, so I haven't been able to update.

1. The Mackinac Conference.

It was a good event, as it usually is. Pundits and Pollsters as always is my favorite panel. I was at the Rick Perry speech there. It went well. He needs to work on his debating skills in a big way as it hurt him a bit, but the stump speech was a good introduction to Michiganders. I think Perry has a good shot if he keeps the message to Texas vs most of the rest of the country in economics. That's his strength. 2012 election is about jobs.

Romney's biggest strength is campaign organization. He won the Mackinac Straw Poll largely because of that. He had the largest campaign presence on the island by far. It's not a surprise. Romney's organization is strong in 2008 as well.

The senate race is interesting. All the campaigns had some presence there, but some are more organized than others. I'm still undecided here. My vote will go to who I think has the best chance against Stabenow.

Pete Hoekstra had a speech and worked hard to get people there. What was interested about the people there is that many of them were on opposite sides in previous races, either with candidates or consultants. I was asked about five different times to show up there, and that is despite being a well known Mike Cox supporter from the gubernatorial election.

I had a brief chance to talk to Hoekstra about my two major concerns. One was TARP. He voted for it the 2nd time. He said that he made his decision based on local bankers in his district calling him up and telling him that he's seen nothing like that before and that something needed to be done. In hindsight, it may or may not have been the right decision, but we don't know what would have happened without the bailout. I don't agree with him there, but respect his answer. The other issue I had was comments about sales tax as a gubernatorial candidate. The timing of it aligned with the self proclaimed "Business leaders for Michigan" push to expand taxes to services. Another person later on said Hoekstra didn't support that plan, but supported Fairtax. I asked Hoekstra about the comments, and he said he supported the Fairtax on the state level. He has long supported it as a congressman at the federal level.

Clark Durant isn't well known, but he has spoken at a Livingston County GOP event several years back when Andy Anuzis was the chair. He's done a lot of work with charter schools and knows how to raise money. I'm interesting to see if he catches fire.

Gary Glenn is the head of Michigan's chapter of the American Family Association. If you haven't heard of him, you will. He's heavily involved in issues opposing gay marriage.

Peter Konetchy and Chuck Marino are both businessmen. I saw some campaign materials for both of them at Mackinac.

I'm undecided in who I support, except that it's going to be Stabenow's opponent.

Also, I found at Mackinac that incumbent and recent presidential candidate Thad McCotter will have a primary challenger if he runs for re-election, and it's going to be a serious one. State Senator Mike Kowall is taking him on and has a lot of prominent support in his county. MI-11 is more Oakland based than it was, so it could be interesting. McCotter is still very strong in Livonia. Kowall is strong in the Highland/White Lake area.

Away from Mackinac, the big news in 2012 is that Sarah Palin is not running. I'm not surprised at this. I think Palin lost any chance she had to win when she resigned as Alaska Governor. I think what she does best is rally the base on the speaker's circuit. I think she has a long career with her PAC and will be around for a long time.

Lastly, keep an eye on the Fast and Furious and Eric Holder. That scandal is picking up some legs. If this is true to any degree, some heads need to roll. That's another reason why the BATF needs to be disbanded. As far as Holder goes, he was Reno's top assistant during the Clinton years. He was bad news even back then.

Governor race updates, Mackinac Conference

Mike Bouchard named Terri Land as running mate. WDIV reporting. That's not a real surprise since Land decided last July she was not running and endorsed Bouchard almost immediately. Does it effect the race? Maybe to a small extent. This is from the David Bonior playbook back in 2002. Alma Wheeler Smith was running, dropped out, and ran with Bonior. Bonior finished 2nd to the then so called "rock star" candidate Matt Millen, I mean Jennifer Granholm. Bouchard's biggest weakness is his 2006 performance against Stabenow. He's a good guy and it wasn't all his fault, but numbers don't lie. I'd like to see Bouchard run against Gary Peters. I think he can win that race. I have doubts whether he would win the governor's race. My reponse to the Bouchard for Governor campaign? Bouchard for Congress!

On another note there was a dustup about the invitation (or not) of Tom George to a gubenatorial debate. From Crain's Detroit Business.

Republican gubernatorial hopeful Sen. Tom George, R-Kalamazoo, is back in the debate.

After hearing from the chair of the Michigan Republican Party and some other candidates, the Michigan Taxpayers Alliance has reconsidered its decision to cut George from a Republican gubernatorial candidate debate at the Sept. 26 Republican Leadership Conference on Mackinac Island.
(snip)
Earlier in the week, George said that the MTA rescinded their invitation for him to participate and cited the reason that WJR AM 760 is only able to air the debate for one hour and Drolet and the MTA’s board felt that they should limit who can participate in the debate.

On Wednesday, Drolet said the Republican Party is responsible for negotiating with radio stations for coverage and he would have welcomed more time that would have enabled George’s initial inclusion.

He said that when the alliance learned it only had an hour of air time, the board initially felt it needed to limit the debate to “the perceived top four candidates running statewide campaigns.”

My view. Let him in. Anyone on the ballot or with a committee on the GOP side should be in. I'm not voting for Tom George (I'm not against him like I am against Snyder), but he's as much a candidate as anyone else in the race. It's not like little known state senators have never won the governorship. Ask John Engler in 1990.

The Mackinac Conference is coming up. This is the big GOP event in Michigan every two years. Presidential wannabes usually show up, but the big thing right now are the state level races. Governor. Attorney General (undecided) and Secretary of State (also undecided). There's a lot of inside baseball going on right now. I'll be posting a report after the conference or during if I get access.

Newt Gingrich's speech at Mackinac (A must see)

Special Thanks to Right Michigan for posting this on his site.

Newt stole the show at Mackinac. Click on the link above to see why.

Report from Mackinac Conference, 2007

I arrived at the island as an uncommitted voter. I left even more of an undecided voter, although if Newt Gingrich declared at the island, I'd probably sign up for his campaign. Newt really stole the show there.

Tancredo, Brownback and unfortunately Huckabee backed out. I wanted to hear Huckabee speak considering his strong performance at the debates. I never heard him in person yet. I missed the speeches from Rudy, McCain, Duncan Hunter, and Fred Thompson. Right Michigan, Bill Nowling, E.M. Zanotti, and Redstate have some posts on Mackinac including the speeches that I missed. I did catch McCain who spoke briefly at a different event Friday night. Earlier that day, McCain was at an NRA event. Code Pink jokers came in there and disrupted the event, and McCain told them that they were defeated before and would be defeated again. One thing that did impress me with McCain there is that he talked to a lot of people after his speech - and not just those who paid the extra $60 it costs for the dinners on the conference. I don't see that a lot with candidates anymore.

I did see Ron Paul and Mitt Romney's speeches. Ron Paul did a good job and had some good support there - enough to make some of the establishment more than a little nervous. Much of his attacks are on the size of government. He's also no fan of globalization, and there is a strong anti-globalist view still in the GOP, particulary on trade issues among Michiganders. I'm no fan of the WTO myself, although I did think Ron Paul should have added one thing on his WTO attack - that they are unelected bureaucrats with control over Michigan and American trade with other countries. I don't agree with everything he says, but after eight years of a moderate southern democrat (at least in practice) masquerading as a republican in Bush, small government is a good message.

Romney's speech was a disapointment. I look at his business background, his work with budgets in Massachusetts, and work with the olympics, and would have liked to hear much more on that. "It's the economy, stupid." I really don't give a rat's rear end about gay marriage right now (That fight's over in Michigan), and I don't like amending the constitution. There was some good in his speech, mostly about ethics and issues like that. We can't put with the Don Sherwoods, Mark Foleys, and Duke Cunninghams of the world. Romney can deliver that message and needs to keep that. He needs to run on his strength and stop pandering to a suspicious right. To the "religious right", it's the records that matter most, and they will always doubt him because of his Massachusetts record. They will also respect him less for pandering. I'm not a "religious right" voter outside of the life issue (which is the BIGGEST issue among the RR), but I do know many conservative Catholics and evangelicals, and they are sophisticated voters who do not like pandering or hypocracy among candidates. Romney has a shot to win those voters with his personal background, judicial stance, and fiscal plans. He has no shot to win them by talking about "In God we Trust" on the side of coins, or by running on gay marriage. "I'm conservative too" isn't good enough. Right now, fiscal trumps all in Michigan. I have not shut the door on Romney, but I'd like to heat a lot more about his fiscal plans and it will be harder for him to get my vote after Mackinac.

The blogs section was interesting and a good introduction to those thinking about blogging or commenting on blogs. The pollsters and pundits section was good as always, and a lot of the talk was about rebuilding the majority and restablishing our brand - that gets to the star of the convention - Newt Gingrich.

Then there was Newt Gingrich. Gingrich stole the show. If he announced a presidential run, I would have been on board. It was a standing room only speech. The Grand Hotel had a whole bunch of extra chairs them moved for the event. It was still standing room only. Unfortunately, I didn't have a video camera with me, since this posting here does not do the speech justice.

The sad part is that most of what Newt said was no more than plain old common sense. 2008 is a change election. "Real change requires real change" is what was repeated to us. Most of the public is sick and tired of "red state" vs "blue state". The system is broke. Our levees and bridges shouldn't fail, and neglect from both parties in Congress, 16 years of Bush/Clinton, and the rest. If the infastructure isn't working right, it's gotta be fixed.

One other mistake is the GOP writing off historicaly democrat voters. Newt only briefed on this, but it is important. It's a mistake for the GOP to ignore the leftist media. It's a mistake to write off black voters and Mexican voters. That's one problem. It's going to be 93-7 and 70-30 democrat voting as long as that's done. Another problem the GOP has when courting those voters is pandering. After time in Mackinac, we all know what horse manure is when we see it. They do too. At the same time, you don't alienate your base voters when you campaign. That's when you get the immigration debacle which you have now. You deal with it in two parts. Border Security first, then immigration. I also haven't heard anything from the politicians about Hezbollah terrorists crossing our border at Nogales. That can change the focus from Mexicans to others.

The issues mentioned were 80-10 issues. Border security, tax and spend, big bloated government and education. Let's remember than while tons of people talk the talk on budgets, it was Newt who balanced the last federal budget, even getting that joker Clinton to follow kicking and screaming. Newt's other point is just as important as the issues, is the way it is communicated. It has to be communicated in a non-political way. The tax increase here in Michigan is a jobs killing tax increase.

Lastly, he spoke of a clean break from the present. The comparison of the current GOP situation was made of the center-right government in France. The incumbent, Jacques Chirac was leaving and it looked like the socialist party would take over. Sarkozy was of Chirac's party and ran on real change. He won. It can be done here as well after Bush is gone, but there has to be real change. Luckily for us, all three major democrats running (Clinton, Obama, Edwards) are Washington jokers who are promising the same ole song and dance. There's the opening. Who will take it?

The straw poll was not a real surprise. A lot of camps brought their people up - Romney, McCain, and Ron Paul especially.

M. Romney 383 39.12%
J. McCain 260 26.56%
R. Paul 106 10.83%
Rudy Giuliani 104 10.62%
F. Thompson 70 7.15%
M. Huckabee 25 2.55%
Uncomm 16 1.63%
D. Hunter 12 1.23%
S. Brownback 3 .31%
T. Tancredo 0 0%

Mackinac Conference 2007

For political junkies, this is the Michigan's Super Bowl outside of Election Day. This is an event I recommend to anyone interest in campaigns. It isn't cheap - $100 after July 13 to register (I registered early), but I'm still going.

Conference Fee: Includes credentials, conference materials, entrance to meetings, forums, and general access to the Grand Hotel. Fee does not include hotel accommodations or meals.

The meal tickets are extra (Unless you are staying at the Grand Hotel), and this year there are two candidates at each speech. I haven't decided if I'm going to any of them or not. I was at the ones for 05 and saw Brownback and Romney there. This year, the following are there:

$65 - Friday Dinner - Duncan Hunter, Rudy Giuliani
$20 - Saturday Breakfest - Ron Paul, Sam Brownback
$30 - Saturday Lunch - Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney
$65 - Saturday Dinner - Fred Thompson, John McCain

For those worried about costs, there are ways to reduce them. The first is staying outside of the island itself. I'm staying in Mackinaw City instead of on the island because of the costs differences. Another way to reduce costs is to volunteer for one of the campaigns (either presidential or other) while up there. Some campaigns take volunteers and pay for the stay with the expection of a couple of days of work up there.

There are a lot of receptions there as well. I know Chris Ward and Mike Rogers both had them in 05. With good timing, you can sometimes get a lot of one on one discussion time with some of the candidates or reps, particulary downticket. With 10 presidential candidates there, we may even be able to see that among one of them, particulary the darkhorses, maybe even a frontrunner. Newt Gingrich will also be there as well running one of the shows. He may or may not be running, but it's always an interesting event when he's speaking.

Away from the glitz, the panels there where quite good. Last year, the best one I was at was the pollsters and pundits panel. That's the middle of my element, and I'll be there for certain. I'm not sure what the other conference panels are yet, but I'll be a couple of those as well, particular if they are similar to last time.

That's not to mention that the conference is in the best part of Michigan - Up North. It's a great weekend, and I highly recommend it.